Balloon Juice - Open Threads Archives

Late Night Open Thread: CO Primary Update

by TaMara| June 25, 202411:45 pm| 75 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Politics, Republican Stupidity

Well, let’s rip off the bandage – Boebert won her primary bid – but as predicted, had there not been 5 other candidates, she may have lost decidedly, so far she’s not breaking 50% (UPDATE: her vote total has dropped to 43%). But the CO GOP is in disarray, so that happened. And CO4 gets what they deserve.

I know I said last night that I didn’t think the DEMS stood a chance in hell in that district (CO4), but looking at the numbers, I’m not as sure now – so I’m not going to write off that just yet. I think it might be worth throwing some of my time and money at it because it still feels like the Boebert hate is strong. If Republicans stay home this election – which is more possible here than in most states – or just refuse to vote for Boebert (she’s that divisive) the Dems might just squeak out a win. Improbable, but not as impossible as it was before she won the primary. See CO3 which she was in danger of handing over to a Democrat for the first time in decades.

The good news, and the only reason I’m bothering you with local politics is because the Colorado GOP leadership that endorsed burning Pride flags and hate and violence during Pride month and also changed all their rules so they could endorse primary candidates (all of them far, far right) got their asses handed to them tonight. Most of their endorsed candidates lost by 60/40 margins or worse. That includes the leader of the GOP, Dave Williams.

This also meant that a majority of Trump-endorsed candidates went down in flames, too.

I suppose this means that despite the takeover of the GOP party by these hate-filled nutjobs, the actual voters could see through their BS. That doesn’t mean any of the actual primary winners are anything but right of center, but aren’t MAGA, so that’s a start.

Those big losses might just be enough for the CO GOP to boot Williams ass out as party leadership, but who knows, they are all as bat shit crazy and hateful as he is, so getting the 60% needed to oust him seems iffy.

Here’s a breakdown of candidates endorsed by the MAGA CO GOP party vs what voters actually decided. Enjoy.

Otherwise, this is an open thread.

===========

And to cleanse your palate here’s cute Reggie photos – does he take any other kind?

Reggie on the highest counter in the kitchen — And they said he wouldn’t be able to jump. LOL

Reggie sleeping with a stuffed elephant — Snuggled down with his stuffed Elephant (which was actually Bixby’s)

Late Night Open Thread: CO Primary UpdatePost + Comments (75)

War for Ukraine Day 853: A Brief(ish) Tuesday Night Update

by Adam L Silverman| June 25, 20248:48 pm| 14 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Quick housekeeping items: First, Rosie is still doing well on the day after her chemo treatment. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Second, very long day today. Got a couple more this week, so I’m going to try to keep this as brief as possible tonight.

Here’s the butcher’s bill from Russia’s attacks on Kharkiv over the past 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours, russian forces targeted the city of Kharkiv and the Kharkiv Oblast with 42 aerial bombs. The bombardment destroyed or damaged 40 houses and shattered more than 1,000 windows in Ukraine’s second-largest city. Footage taken right after three russian air… pic.twitter.com/zsktsXjqfX

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) June 25, 2024

Over the past 24 hours, russian forces targeted the city of Kharkiv and the Kharkiv Oblast with 42 aerial bombs. The bombardment destroyed or damaged 40 houses and shattered more than 1,000 windows in Ukraine’s second-largest city. Footage taken right after three russian air bombs struck Kharkiv this morning.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

We Will Implement Everything Necessary to Advance Through Each Chapter of Our Relations with the EU – the Address by the President

25 June 2024 – 22:13

Dear Ukrainians!

Today has been a very eventful day.

We have officially started negotiations on membership with the European Union. This is a historic result. We have been working on it for a long time – and now we have held the first intergovernmental conference, and we will definitely implement everything necessary to advance through each chapter of our relations with the EU and to create a treaty – a treaty of Ukraine’s accession.

The second thing today is our legal battle. There are new warrants from the International Criminal Court for Russian murderers. Shoigu, Gerasimov – your path to The Hague is open. There is also a decision of the European Court of Human Rights on Russia’s responsibility for everything that has been committed in our Crimea against people and against the law. The occupier will be held accountable for that.

The third thing is a just peace for Ukraine, and our steps, aimed at fully restoring security. After the Peace Summit, we already have the eighth participant who signed the Joint Communiqué, and we are only increasing our pressure on Russia for the sake of a fair end to this war. And we are preparing working groups. As early as July, we will have new specifics aimed at achieving peace.

And as promised, we are working to bring all of our people back home, to Ukraine, from Russian captivity. Every single one of them. We do not forget anyone. Today, 90 more Ukrainian families are happy. 90 warriors have been brought back from captivity. Defenders of Azovstal and Mariupol, Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant, from different front directions. They are warriors of the Armed Forces, the National Guard, the Border Guard Service, the Navy. Most of them are privates and sergeants. And we will bring back all the others in the same manner. We seek the truth about everyone – where the person is, what condition they are in, and what it will take to get them back. I thank our exchange team. Yermak, Budanov, Maliuk, Lubinets, Klymenko – thank you guys! I thank the United Arab Emirates for their assistance in making today’s event possible. We continue this work.

I thank everyone who believes, fights, helps and works for Ukraine to achieve such results – in protecting our people, strengthening our state, and bringing us closer to our peace. The peace that Ukrainians deserve!

Glory to Ukraine!

More Ukrainian POWs returned home today!

Another 90 of our people returned to Ukraine from Russian captivity.

Soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the National Guard, Territorial Defense Force, marines and border guards are finally back home.

We continue our work to bring everyone home.
Glory to Ukraine! 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/TkNgHjybcW

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 25, 2024

Ukrainian soldier cries upon hearing the Ukrainian language.

pic.twitter.com/bGBIPELVaR

— UNITED24 Media (@United24media) June 25, 2024

The Czech Republic:

The first shipment of ammunition from our initiative arrived in Ukraine some time ago.

We are doing what it takes.

— Petr Fiala (@P_Fiala) June 25, 2024

I think this might be the first report I’ve seen that the Czech initiative to source, purchase, and deliver 155mm ammunition to Ukraine had actually made its initial delivery.

The stratejik jenius’s advisors have thoughts:

WASHINGTON, June 25 (Reuters) – Two key advisers to Donald Trump have presented him with a plan to end Russia’s war in Ukraine – if he wins the Nov. 5 presidential election – that involves telling Ukraine it will only get more U.S. weapons if it enters peace talks.

The United States would at the same time warn Moscow that any refusal to negotiate would result in increased U.S. support for Ukraine, retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, one of Trump’s national security advisers, said in an interview.

Under the plan drawn up by Kellogg and Fred Fleitz, who both served as chiefs of staff in Trump’s National Security Council during his 2017-2021 presidency, there would be a ceasefire based on prevailing battle lines during peace talks, Fleitz said.

They have presented their strategy to Trump, and the Republican presidential candidate responded favorably, Fleitz added. “I’m not claiming he agreed with it or agreed with every word of it, but we were pleased to get the feedback we did,” he said.

Trump spokesperson Steven Cheung said only statements made by Trump or authorized members of his campaign should be deemed official.

The strategy outlined by Kellogg and Fleitz is the most detailed plan yet by associates of Trump, who has said he could quickly settle the war in Ukraine if he beats President Joe Biden in the Nov. 5 election, though he has not said how he would do that.

The proposal would mark a big shift in the U.S. position on the war and would face opposition from European allies and within Trump’s own Republican Party.

The Kremlin said any peace plan proposed by a possible future Trump administration would have to reflect the reality on the ground but that Russian President Vladimir Putin remained open to talks.

“The value of any plan lies in the nuances and in taking into account the real state of affairs on the ground,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Reuters.

“President Putin has repeatedly said that Russia has been and remains open to negotiations, taking into account the real state of affairs on the ground,” he said.

Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said on Tuesday that freezing hostilities at the prevailing front lines would be “strange,” given Russia had violated international law by invading Ukraine.

“Ukraine has an absolutely clear understanding and it is spelled out in the peace formula proposed by President (Volodymyr) Zelenskiy, it is clearly stated there – peace can only be fair and peace can only be based on international law,” he told Reuters.

The White House National Security Council said the Biden administration would not force Ukraine into negotiations with Russia.

“President Biden believes that any decisions about negotiations are up to Ukraine,” said NSC spokesperson Adrienne Watson.The core elements of the plan were outlined in a publicly available research paper, opens new tab published by the “America First Policy Institute,” a Trump-friendly think tank where Kellogg and Fleitz hold leadership positions.

Kellogg said it would be crucial to get Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating table quickly if Trump wins the election.

“We tell the Ukrainians, ‘You’ve got to come to the table, and if you don’t come to the table, support from the United States will dry up,'” he said. “And you tell Putin, ‘He’s got to come to the table and if you don’t come to the table, then we’ll give Ukrainians everything they need to kill you in the field.'”

According to their research paper, Moscow would also be coaxed to the table with the promise of NATO membership for Ukraine being put off for an extended period.

Russia invaded neighboring Ukraine in February 2022. Until some gains by Russia in recent months, the front lines barely moved since the end of that year, despite tens of thousands of dead on both sides in relentless trench warfare, the bloodiest fighting in Europe since World War Two.

Fleitz said Ukraine need not formally cede territory to Russia under their plan. Still, he said, Ukraine was unlikely to regain effective control of all its territory in the near term.

“Our concern is that this has become a war of attrition that’s going to kill a whole generation of young men,” he said.

A lasting peace in Ukraine would require additional security guarantees for Ukraine, Kellogg and Fleitz said. Fleitz added that “arming Ukraine to the teeth” was likely to be a key element of that.

“President Trump has repeatedly stated that a top priority in his second term will be to quickly negotiate an end to the Russia-Ukraine war,” Trump spokesperson Cheung said.

Biden campaign spokesperson James Singer said Trump is not interested in standing up to Putin or defending democracy.

More at the link.

I’m not saying they’re good thoughts.

I’d love to see the faces of Donald Trump and his brilliantly talented advisors the moment they realize Vladimir Putin has just wiped his ass with their “peace plan on Ukraine” having used it to let his military catch the breath and then launch a new offensive on Ukraine with…

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) June 25, 2024

I’d love to see the faces of Donald Trump and his brilliantly talented advisors the moment they realize Vladimir Putin has just wiped his ass with their “peace plan on Ukraine” having used it to let his military catch the breath and then launch a new offensive on Ukraine with renewed vigor.

Sure, what could possibly go wrong with simple demagogic solutions.

Also, the US:

News: The Biden administration is moving toward lifting a de facto ban on American military contractors deploying to Ukraine to help the country’s military maintain and repair US-provided weapons systems, per 4 US officials. w/@OrenCNN https://t.co/7wM8iEvIxx

— Natasha Bertrand (@NatashaBertrand) June 25, 2024

CNN has the details:

The Biden administration is moving toward lifting a de facto ban on American military contractors deploying to Ukraine, four US officials familiar with the matter told CNN, to help the country’s military maintain and repair US-provided weapons systems.

The change would mark another significant shift in the Biden administration’s Ukraine policy, as the US looks for ways to give Ukraine’s military an upper hand against Russia.

The policy is still being worked on by administration officials and has not received final sign-off yet from President Joe Biden, officials said.

“We have not made any decisions and any discussion of this is premature,” said one administration official. “The president is absolutely firm that he will not be sending US troops to Ukraine.”

Once approved, the change would likely be enacted this year, officials said, and would allow the Pentagon to provide contracts to American companies for work inside Ukraine for the first time since Russia invaded in 2022. Officials said they hope it will speed up the maintenance and repairs of weapons systems being used by the Ukrainian military.

Over the last two years, Biden has insisted that all Americans, and particularly US troops, stay far away from the Ukrainian frontlines. The White House has been determined to limit both the danger to Americans and the perception, particularly by Russia, that the US military is engaged in combat there. The State Department has explicitly warned Americans against traveling to Ukraine since 2022.

As a result, US-provided military equipment that has sustained significant damage in combat has had to be transported out of the country to Poland, Romania, or other NATO countries for repairs, a process which takes time. US troops are also available to help the Ukrainians with more routine maintenance and logistics, but only from afar via video chat or secure phone—an arrangement that has come with inherent limitations, since US troops and contractors are not able to work directly on the systems.

Administration officials began to seriously reconsider those restrictions over the last several months, officials said, as Russia continued to make gains on the battlefield and US funding for Ukraine stalled in Congress. Allowing experienced, US government-funded American contractors to maintain a presence in Ukraine means they will be able to help fix damaged, high-value equipment much faster, officials said. One advanced system that officials say will likely require regular maintenance is the F-16 fighter jet, which Ukraine is set to receive later this year.

Companies bidding for the contracts would be required to develop robust risk mitigation plans to mitigate threats to their employees, an official said.

The discussions follow a series of decisions the US has made in recent months to try to help Ukraine beat back the Russians. In late-May, Biden gave Ukraine permission to strike targets inside Russia, near the border with the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, with US weapons—a request the US had repeatedly denied in the past. Last week, that policy appeared to expand once again, when National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said Ukraine could counterstrike anywhere along the Ukraine-Russia border using US weapons.

Current and former officials familiar with the discussions about deploying contractors to Ukraine emphasized that the policy change will not result in the kind of overwhelming American contractor presence there that existed in Iraq and Afghanistan. Instead, it would likely result in anywhere from a few dozen to a couple hundred contractors working in Ukraine at a time.

Even more from the US:

According to the Associated Press- The U.S. is expected to announce Tuesday it is sending an additional $150 million in critically needed munitions to Ukraine

The upcoming shipment is expected to include munitions for HIMARS. One of the U.S. officials said they could not verify…

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 25, 2024

According to the Associated Press- The U.S. is expected to announce Tuesday it is sending an additional $150 million in critically needed munitions to Ukraine

The upcoming shipment is expected to include munitions for HIMARS. One of the U.S. officials said they could not verify whether this aid package included ATACMS munitions, but said the aid did not include cluster munitions.

The package also includes anti-armor weapons, small arms and grenades and the highly sought-after 155 mm and 105 mm artillery rounds, among other support.

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-missiles-russia-military-aid-us-10508d1ea26ed047a183a1daea02d773

Here are the details from the AP:

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. is expected to announce Tuesday it is sending an additional $150 million in critically needed munitions to Ukraine, as Russia accuses Ukraine of using U.S.-provided munitions to strike inside Russia or Russian-held territory, according to two U.S. officials.

The continued flow of U.S. munitions, which will be drawn from existing stockpiles, is intended to help Ukrainian forces repel intensified Russian attacks.

The upcoming shipment is expected to include munitions for the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS. That system is capable of firing the longer-range missiles from the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, which Russia has said would prompt retaliation and risk escalating the conflict. One of the U.S. officials said they could not verify whether this aid package included ATACMS munitions, but said the aid did not include cluster munitions.

The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to provide details that had not yet been made public.

The package also includes anti-armor weapons, small arms and grenades and the highly sought-after 155 mm and 105 mm artillery rounds, among other support.

The EU:

It’s official. 🇺🇦🇪🇺membership talks have started.

Feeling special gratitude to the Ukrainian Armed Forces for this day. pic.twitter.com/FfV29XCGzQ

— Olga Stefanishyna (@StefanishynaO) June 25, 2024

With 🇺🇦 & 🇪🇺 flags flapping in the breeze at the presidential office in Kyiv, Zelensky says, “When we signed the application for EU membership on the fifth day of the full-scale war, many said it was nothing but a dream. But we made this dream a reality.” pic.twitter.com/NGmmz3F3LB

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) June 25, 2024

Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast:

Instant punishment from above.
Ukrainian warriors destroyed a russian BM-21 “Grad” MLRS in the Pokrovsk direction. It managed to fire only a few shots and was turned into scrap metal.

📹: 109th @TDF_UA Brigade pic.twitter.com/bwlOf1AiVU

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 25, 2024

Somewhere in Donetsk Oblast:

Another destroyed Russian Pantsir-S1. As claimed by the source this one is somewhere in the Donetsk region:

“The photo shows the destroyed Pantsir-S1 air defense system.

HIMARS MLRS strike. The missile hit nearby, as a result of which the complex burned out from the inside.… https://t.co/rWPzkcZuhZ pic.twitter.com/Wq44pDwhxu

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 25, 2024

Another destroyed Russian Pantsir-S1. As claimed by the source this one is somewhere in the Donetsk region:

“The photo shows the destroyed Pantsir-S1 air defense system.

HIMARS MLRS strike. The missile hit nearby, as a result of which the complex burned out from the inside.

The personnel were not injured.

15.06.2024-20.06.2024. Donetsk region.”

https://t.me/dosye_shpiona/549

The Kharkiv front:

💥Two Russian Pantsir-S1 air defence systems destroyed on the Kharkiv front!

“Air reconnaissance unit of the 3rd ‘Spartan’ Brigade discovered the positions of Russian anti-aircraft systems and the missile forces unit Ukraine opened fire on them.”https://t.co/hZiAFh8m5c pic.twitter.com/yDrFpWekMZ

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 25, 2024

/3. Location of second Pantsir-S1 https://t.co/BaCtuCVyQ7 pic.twitter.com/XOVfhRnPGW

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 25, 2024

Here’s the full text of tweet 2 above:

/2. Geolocation of one of the Pantsir-S1.
(50.546260,36.581428). It’s also noteworthy that this is the first time when the drone footage of deep strike on Belgorod region of Russia were published

The destruction of those two Pantsir-S1 air defence so was reported back on the June 22nd:

“Minus 2 Pantsir-S1 in 2 days. 1 was on the near Belgorod. 1 covered Russian forces that attacked on Lyptsi, Kharkiv region, direction. In both cases the crew did not survive the Pantsirs were burned.”

https://t.me/vanek_nikolaev/24593
https://t.me/kiber_boroshno/8785

The Dnipro Rivier, Kherson Oblast:

Ukrainian FPV attack on a Russian boat during Russian night operation somewhere on the Dnipro river, Kherson region. Video filmed by Russians https://t.co/Cu7DFXR9k6 pic.twitter.com/4r3RljgWkd

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 25, 2024

The Avdiivka front:

‘Muramasa’ unit destroys Russian BM-21 Grad MLRS on its firing position. Avdiivka.https://t.co/SX1P9QT6pw pic.twitter.com/HLxYKe10vH

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 25, 2024

For you air defense enthusiasts:

Compilation of downing Shaheed kamikaze drones in Ukraine. https://t.co/4Yf72lbqYa pic.twitter.com/LV5b1JAfBo

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 25, 2024

And for you Yak-52 enthusiasts:

Kill marks of the crew of the Ukrainian Yak-52, which shoots down Russian reconnaissance drones.

P.S: As said in the comments, the bird and cloud at the bottom right are marking drones downed as a result of a collision with a bird and exposure to weather, which was witnessed by… https://t.co/ziDvTwZXfy pic.twitter.com/1ZjnqHqw9Z

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 25, 2024

Kill marks of the crew of the Ukrainian Yak-52, which shoots down Russian reconnaissance drones.

P.S: As said in the comments, the bird and cloud at the bottom right are marking drones downed as a result of a collision with a bird and exposure to weather, which was witnessed by the aircraft crew.

https://facebook.com/photo/?fbid=25980846541559054&set=a.868344163235972

If you ever wondered why states transitioning to liberal democracy are never quite able to make that transition, this thread is a good explainer:

2. 80% of all Ukrainian tax money is spend on defence, while social assistance, healthcare, and education are covered mainly by financial assistance from partner countries.

>>>https://t.co/8TluSOALEU

— Silja #RussiaIsGenocide #RussiaIsEcocide (@SiljaLynx) June 25, 2024

4. IDPs experienced problems with findings jobs and faced higher cost of rent and life expenses.

In 2022, “Lviv rents skyrocket as displaced Ukrainians scramble for housing”https://t.co/FuyuaGq5M0

>>>

— Silja #RussiaIsGenocide #RussiaIsEcocide (@SiljaLynx) June 25, 2024

6. The war has compounded “unresolved issues in housing policy before the war: outdated regulatory framework based on the Soviet Housing Code, shadow rental market, low quality of data on the national policy, & the real state of the housing stock”.https://t.co/ew84yTfGJh

>>> pic.twitter.com/gwVj9nlFgm

— Silja #RussiaIsGenocide #RussiaIsEcocide (@SiljaLynx) June 25, 2024

refs: https://t.co/YojaQfyyvC https://t.co/lcVZiAbIMs https://t.co/uQCDo3MrTP https://t.co/TzDuZs277l

— Silja #RussiaIsGenocide #RussiaIsEcocide (@SiljaLynx) June 25, 2024

The global system needs some long overdue TLC, and the L needs to be tough love.

Voronezh Oblast, Russia:

Tonight drones targeted a Russian ammunition storage in Olkhovatka, Voronezh region of Russia. 100km from the frontline.

Two drones attacked the territory of the ammunition storage at approximately 2:30 a.m. and the detonation is reportedly still ongoing.… pic.twitter.com/QVZmYlNLgP

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 25, 2024

Tonight drones targeted a Russian ammunition storage in Olkhovatka, Voronezh region of Russia. 100km from the frontline.

Two drones attacked the territory of the ammunition storage at approximately 2:30 a.m. and the detonation is reportedly still ongoing.

https://t.me/astrapress/58317
https://t.me/DIUkraine/4015

/3. The detonation of Russian ammunition is still ongoing. Exit and entry to Olkhovatka was blocked. https://t.co/lgy3Zz6r9c pic.twitter.com/XeF9KJCK6v

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 25, 2024

/5. A thread which describes in details Russian ammunition storage in Olkhovatka https://t.co/uKAlz8MJuU

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 25, 2024

On June 25th, Ukrainian HUR successfully struck a field ammo depot in Voronezh Oblast. The location was confirmed by @EjShahid. I published an analysis of this ammo depot in February. You can find full information about this ammo depot here:https://t.co/VJ6ZXBHU4l pic.twitter.com/q7PaosMWW7

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) June 25, 2024

Moscow via the Hague:

Hard to see a plausible defence to these allegations: PTC II considered that there are reasonable grounds to believe that the two bear responsibility for missile strikes…[. ]…. against the Ukrainian electric infrastructure from at least 10 October 2022 until 9 March 2023. https://t.co/Eu1B2e5fkD

— Wayne Jordash (@WayneJordash) June 25, 2024

Those committing war crimes, bombarding civilian objects and infrastructure, live under the illusion they won’t be punished. Shoigu and Gerasimov are just the beginning. Sooner or later, all names will be known. pic.twitter.com/zAalLfuLln

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) June 25, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

But first a tree!

Yet another piece of Kyiv beauty for you all.

This is the Bai-Bai Oak, a magnificent ancient tree in the woodland at the northern edge of Kyiv, along the Big Automobile Beltway.

The Oak is about 500 years old, and this is one of Ukraine’s natural landmarks protected by law.… pic.twitter.com/Gr9psQzOX5

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) June 25, 2024

Yet another piece of Kyiv beauty for you all.

This is the Bai-Bai Oak, a magnificent ancient tree in the woodland at the northern edge of Kyiv, along the Big Automobile Beltway.

The Oak is about 500 years old, and this is one of Ukraine’s natural landmarks protected by law.

The video clearly does not fully illustrate the real scale – the tree is about 30 meters (100 ft) high, and the trunk’s diameter is about 1.5 meters (5 ft).

The Kyiv area is a really old place that has always been closely tied to forests, so we have quite a few such ancient trees that are 300, or 500, or even presumably about 1,000 years old.

One of many beautiful things about Kyiv is that one can sometimes google things about the town and be like: “Wow, so that big-ass tree next to a coffee shop I like actually remembers the time of the Crusades?”

The Bai-Bai Oak grows in the woodland strip beyond Kyiv’s residential districts, so it’s an especially wonderful and calm place to drive to, stop by, and take a walk while listening to birds.

The old tree gives a lot of spiritual power to its guests who are respectful and friendly. One should take it easy and try and explore pathways around the Oak and find a swampy pond with some really defiant ducks floating around.

This place is not distant, it’s very close to roads and also to a local police health camp, so it’s pretty easy to come to.

To be honest, I have no idea why it’s officially called “The Bai-Bai Oak.”

The easiest guess here is that the name comes from “Babai” or “Babaika,” which is a super common word for an elusive night creature from Slavic folklore, a boogeyman that parents jokingly scare their misbehaving kids with.

One could see and imagine that the ancient tree tries to boo its visitors with its branches spread wide, but other than that, it’s a very spiritually friendly place.

Smile 🙂 pic.twitter.com/8Q96g4TcYM

— Patron (@PatronDsns) June 25, 2024

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 853: A Brief(ish) Tuesday Night UpdatePost + Comments (14)

Can’t Win for Losing Open Thread: ‘An Inconvenient Gift: Green Jobs’

by Anne Laurie| June 25, 20245:56 pm| 158 Comments

This post is in: Excellent Links, Proud to Be A Democrat, Science & Technology, Show Us on the Doll Where the Invisible Hand Touched You

How dare Joe Biden invest in green technology so WE ALL benefit. I swear to God, these dopes are going to hot take us straight into a dictatorship https://t.co/wFZOracQPC

— scary lawyerguy (@scarylawyerguy) June 20, 2024

Biden Is Giving Red Districts an Inconvenient Gift: Green Jobs

“The White House’s policies have fueled plans for more than $200 billion in cleantech manufacturing investments — mostly in districts with Republican lawmakers opposed to the agenda.” https://t.co/o8ig18Ca0I

— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) June 20, 2024

I can certainly see Repubs, given the chance, cutting off their constituents’ economic noses to spite President Biden… but I don’t see how this is bad news for *Biden*. Lots more at the link, from Bloomberg:

The single largest investment in the burgeoning US green energy supply chain involves a construction site the size of 121 football fields near Greensboro, North Carolina, and a check for $13.9 billion. By 2030, the Toyota Corp. facility could be employing more than 5,000 people cranking out enough batteries to power half-a-million new electric vehicles each year.

What’s not to like about that? This seemingly rhetorical question actually demands an answer given America’s partisan divide over climate change.

The Toyota project, which began with a $1.3 billion initial investment announced in 2021, massively expanded after passage the following year of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), President Joe Biden’s signature green legislation offering hundreds of billions of dollars in subsidies for clean technology. The IRA was unanimously opposed by Republicans in Congress. Its cousin, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, containing a smaller set of cleantech subsidies, was nominally bipartisan but only drew 13 “yeas” from House Republicans when it passed in 2021.

One Republican critic of the IRA said, using fairly typical language, that it would “raise taxes” and “throw money at woke climate and social programs that won’t work.” That critic, Rep. Richard Hudson, represents North Carolina’s 9th district, which happens to be where Toyota is building that mammoth battery plant.

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Hudson’s district epitomizes a peculiarity of the US energy transition — and a growing problem for Republicans. There is a certain luxury enjoyed by politicians who can be rhetorically against something while still quietly welcoming any dollars and jobs that it brings to their constituents. Looking ahead to November, if Republicans are empowered to a point where they actually could vote those dollars away, it would present a much thornier dilemma — and a moment of truth.

What’s more, factors such as abundant land and cheaper labor have drawn billions of dollars in cleantech investment not only to red districts but also to the swing states that will likely determine who prevails in the race for the White House.

Bloomberg Opinion teamed up with Jeff Davies, founder of EnerWrap, which specializes in data-driven insights on the US energy system, to follow the money and construct a granular map of where US cleantech factories announced on Biden’s watch are planned or being built. This encompasses hundreds of projects in more than 450 cities spread across 44 states plus Puerto Rico, backed by more than $200 billion of planned investment. They’re expected to generate 195,000 jobs, plus economic multiplier effects for local businesses, tax bases and infrastructure.

Whichever way you slice the numbers — spending, jobs, projects announced under Biden before or after the passage of the IRA — red districts garner an overwhelming proportion of the benefits…

…[A]s billions of dollars flow into red districts, the probability of a clash between ideological purity and economic pragmatism is growing. It is entirely possible, of course, that November 2024 reshapes the political landscape, including who holds power in Washington. A second term for former President Donald Trump may see a concerted effort to roll back Biden’s green agenda. But to do so, he would need a lot of House Republicans to vote away two things every district needs more of: Jobs and money, green or otherwise.

Can’t Win for Losing Open Thread: ‘An Inconvenient Gift: Green Jobs’Post + Comments (158)

Tuesday Afternoon Fill In the Blanks Open Thread

by WaterGirl| June 25, 202412:50 pm| 101 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

So many things to write about, but no time today.

Beau’s podcast last night talked about research from Johns Hopkins about the impact of their awful abortion law from 2021 or 2022. 8% increase in infant mortality overall. 23% increase in deaths of children born with birth defects. There aren’t words bad enough for people who put women and families through this.

Judge Cannon clearly has whisperers in her ear about just how far she can go without doing something to allow jack Smith to appeal to the 11th Circuit. Exhibit # 50-million of this going on this week.

And so much more.

Anyway, fill in the blanks and choose your topics!

Open thread.

Tuesday Afternoon Fill In the Blanks Open ThreadPost + Comments (101)

Tuesday Morning Open Thread: ‘We Are Going to Win’

by Anne Laurie| June 25, 20246:47 am| 257 Comments

This post is in: Elections 2024, Excellent Links, Proud to Be A Democrat

I share this only because I spend 70% of my time giving pep talks to nervous supporters. Be nervous. That’s ok. The stakes couldn’t be higher. And no public polling matters much 4.5 months out.

Mission: Head down. Do the work. We know how to win. And we will. ?????? https://t.co/3YF8Glf5q1

— Rufus Gifford (@rufusgifford) June 20, 2024

Biden campaign chair @jomalleydillon sat with me for her first extended, on-the-record intv since taking the reelect's reins. Read about it in my new @PuckNews column (https://t.co/IU9EpBJ1xy) and/or listen to the whole thing on #impoliticpod (https://t.co/iCde42qmC1).

— John Heilemann (@jheil) June 24, 2024

This is good, encouraging, and I doubt many of you will have seen it yet. John Heilemann, at Puck, interviews Jen O’Malley Dillon:

The chair of the president’s reelection campaign, Jen O’Malley Dillon, is a legend in her business. Born in Boston and educated at Tufts—where she majored in political science, and, way more important, was the captain of the softball team—J.O.D. got her start in presidential politics on Al Gore’s 2000 campaign, where she quickly built her reputation as one of the great field organizers of her or any generation. From there, she ascended the ziggurat of Democratic operatives methodically, skillfully, without a slip: from Iowa field director and Iowa state director for John Edwards in 2004 and 2008, respectively; to battleground state director and deputy campaign manager for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, respectively; then chair of the D.N.C. Unity Reform Commission after the 2016 election, and campaign manager for Beto O’Rourke’s much-hyped but short-lived primary bid in 2020.

And then, in the spring of 2020, J.O.D. was handed an assignment that many considered impossible: general election campaign manager for a candidate considered by most Republicans, many Democrats, and much of the punditocracy to be too old, too frail, and/or too “sleepy” (per the forever amped-up incumbent, Donald Trump) to win the White House. And yet, she pulled it off, becoming the first female campaign manager in history to install a Democrat in the Oval Office.

J.O.D. spent the first three years of Biden’s term serving as White House deputy chief of staff. But in January, she decamped from Washington for Wilmington to take over running the reelect alongside Biden’s longtime chief strategist, Mike Donilon. Since then, she hasn’t done a single extended, recorded, on-the-record interview—until now. Famously hard-nosed, clear-headed, and nonsense-free, her tendency to avoid the press owes much to her allergy to bullshit and reflexive aversion to superficial spin. And yet, in a nearly hourlong conversation for my podcast (condensed here for space and edited for clarity), the confidence she expressed about Biden again defeating Trump in 2024 was unwavering and absolute…

John Heilemann: The debate is less than a week away. If you go back and screen the 2020 Biden-Trump debates, they’re unwatchable—the endless crosstalk, the interruptions. That’s the kind of stuff the new debate rules are supposed to stop. How confident are you that those rules will work?

Jen O’Malley Dillon: I’m confident that Joe Biden is going to stand on that stage, and he is going to show what he showed in 2020—that he is in this for all the right reasons. He’s focused on delivering for the American people, and him standing next to Donald Trump is the best way to show that. Do I think rules are going to protect the American people from whatever Donald Trump might say? Of course not. But I do think having this [debate] really be serious is what the American people want. So, this is a great opportunity, earlier in this cycle than ever before, for the two of them to stand together and for [President Biden] to talk about what he’s done and what he’s fighting for—and not having an audience, not having distractions, not having to worry about Covid, I think all those things are better for the American people…

Let’s talk about the state of the race. This week, a new Fox News national poll put Biden at 50 and Trump at 48. The latest Morning Consult national tracking poll has Biden at 44 and Trump at 43. Those are both, obviously, well within the margin of error; they are statistical ties. But Trump’s peak in the polling averages was in January, when he had a four-point lead. And according to 538, Biden has taken a narrow lead for the first time this year.

Now, national polls are one thing and the numbers in the battleground states are different. But in those states, on the battlefields where you’re fighting, are you guys also seeing an uptick?

Yes. But look, fundamentally, everyone in this country has to understand that this is a very close election and it’s going to be close. And I get [that Democrats] wish it weren’t the case, [but] the race in 2020, the 2016 race, the 2012 race—[all were] close. We are a polarized nation in many ways. [But], significantly, from when Trump was convicted by a jury of his peers on 34 [felony] counts, we have seen movement in our direction and away from Trump. There’s also still lots of folks in this country that, yes, know this election’s happening, and yes, they know that it’s coming up, but they’re just not that engaged in it now. And those people are starting to tune in a little bit more.

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I had someone say to me earlier today, “Maybe Donald Trump has peaked.” There’s not a lot of room for growth for him when you look at his coalition and how he’s expressing to the folks that voted for Nikki Haley and other Republicans: that he doesn’t need them. Well, we welcome them, and we see a lot of opportunity to continue to grow the people that are with Joe Biden by doing the work of telling his story, what he’s about, and what his vision is. And I don’t see that on Donald Trump’s side…

I’ve heard people in your world talk about how 6 percent of voters in six states will decide this election. As a reminder for non-junkies: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia are the six states we’re talking about—the undeniable battleground states. We can have a discussion about whether you want to include North Carolina.

Oh, we will have that discussion.

Okay, but for now, let’s focus on the notion of 6 percent in six states. Is that how you think about the universe of persuadable voters—undecided voters, up-for-grabs voters, whatever you want to call them—in 2024?

Here’s how I would approach this. We have multiple paths to victory. We can talk about the states. There are a number of people that have been with us before, who are people we see every day that the president’s fighting for, but are the exact ones who are not engaged in this race. And so they are a group of persuadable voters we need to reach to make sure that they know what’s at stake and that they’re going to vote.
[Then there are] the people who are actually on the edges and undecided, [and among them] there’s a whole new cohort that has come in since 2020, who were not available to us [then] who we saw vote in 2022, post-Dobbs. They are the same people who, in primary after primary on the Republican side, protested Donald Trump…

By trade, by every fiber of my being, I’m an organizer. That’s how I started. That’s how I will end. I believe in that being so fundamental to how we’re successful. But I also think that you have to really re-look at how people in their lives are engaging, and you’ve got to find a way to tap into that so it feels in stride with everything else they’re doing. So that doesn’t mean you’re reinventing the wheel. It doesn’t mean this is all about new fucking widgets. It means it’s about a blended approach that reaches a person like my mom, who might want to come into an office and be with her friends and do postcards, and people who are young, who matter a great deal, but who don’t see themselves [getting involved in that way]…

… So, then, let me float my theory that, in the end, what we’re going to see is what I think of as “blue wall fall,” where you guys wind up spending almost all of your time and money on Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania—because if you win those three, plus that one congressional district in Nebraska, NE-2, which allocates a single electoral vote and Biden carried by six points in 2020, that gets you to 270 and you’re home.

The job of the campaign is to keep as many battleground states in play for as long as possible so we can navigate any flexibility in the race. If you look at 2020, Georgia and Arizona weren’t even in play at all at this point, and certainly were not traditional battleground states. So at the end of the day, all we have to do is get to 270, and the easiest path is certainly [by preserving] the blue wall, where there’s a lot of core-coalition strength for the president. But I am bullish on North Carolina, and I don’t fuck around in saying that—because I was bullish on Arizona [four years ago] and that’s because we looked at it very closely…

What do you say when people ask if there’s any chance Biden will either step aside or be replaced as the Democratic nominee?

The first thing I’ll say is that Joe Biden is going to win, period. And I’m not saying that because I wish it to be so, I’m saying that because I know it’ll be so by who he is as a leader and what we are building as a campaign. It’s okay for people to be worried, because we understand the stakes, but now is the time to be clear about the choice: There is just one choice…

Can I just add one thing? We are going to win. But it is because the people of this country take action and take action now. For every single person who is worried, go do something about it. Get a yard sign. Go on Facebook and say you support Joe Biden. Go do your own fucking TikToks. That is what we need now. This debate is going to help put into clarity that there is one choice. And every single person that’s bed-wetting—hate to use that phrase, thanks for putting it back in my head—take action. Do something. You have power. Take it.

Tuesday Morning Open Thread: <em>‘We Are Going to Win’</em>Post + Comments (257)

Dank Grey Dawn Open Thread: Debate Prep

by Anne Laurie| June 25, 20242:40 am| 79 Comments

This post is in: Elections 2024, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Our Failed Media Experiment

Kasie Hunt abruptly cut an interview w/ Trump spox Karoline Leavitt short this morning when she repeatedly went after Jake Tapper instead of answering Kasie’s questions.

pic.twitter.com/8sGtlQQg6Y https://t.co/pSi5Sk4Fcf

— Jake Wilkins (@JakeWilkns) June 24, 2024

I've always thought it was 60/40 that Trump would find an excuse to cancel at the last moment.

(Hey, I see why pollsters like using these percentages for predictions. You can't ever be wrong!) https://t.co/b94XhLD0Dc

— James Fallows (@JamesFallows) June 24, 2024

To recall why presidential debates can matter, look back at the first one aired on tv—1960, when Nixon led JFK in polls earlier in the race and lost the popular vote by .02%. At most, they sway up to 5% of viewers, which would be big this year. (By me.) https://t.co/CzlI3YVDgc

— Evan Osnos (@eosnos) June 23, 2024

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… Until recently, it wasn’t clear that Trump and Biden would ever share a stage again. But last month their campaigns announced plans for two debates, which have the potential for even greater stakes and strangeness than four years ago. Since they are meeting nearly three months earlier than usual in a Presidential election, there would, in theory, be enough time for either party to find a replacement, in the event of a catastrophic performance. More likely, however, the spectacle of Biden and Trump side by side, and effectively tied in the polls, could jolt the electorate, swaying some of the disaffected voters who have preferred to ignore the choice before them. That would be a vivid test of Biden’s adage about elections: “Don’t compare me to the Almighty. Compare me to the alternative.”…

It is a measure of this curious rematch that some of Trump’s opponents are eager to boost his visibility. Because Trump posts almost exclusively on his own social-media site, and most broadcasters do not air his rallies, Rachel Maddow, the MSNBC host, said last week that she suspects voters have not absorbed how “pornographically violent” his rhetoric has become. As George Conway, the former Republican strategist, put it recently, “The more you see of him, the more you say, ‘What is wrong with him?’ ”

Biden, for his part, enters the debate without the lead he had at this stage in 2020, and he’s still acclimating to a forceful new posture of attack. For months, while Democrats pushed him to slash at Trump for his criminal trials, the President held back, wary that doing so could be portrayed as interfering in the prosecution. But, since the Trump verdict was delivered, on May 30th, a raft of polls have shown a small but consistent shift away from him, and the President has seized on that signal. At a fund-raiser, he labelled Trump a “convicted felon” who “snapped,” and his campaign has released a wave of television ads in swing states, showing Trump’s mug shot and images of him in court, and calling him a “convicted criminal who’s only out for himself.”…

Predicting what might make the difference is more difficult. Will Trump confirm his vow to pardon followers jailed for violence on January 6th? Or his aim to gut the Justice Department? Will Biden defend abortion rights boldly enough to inspire young voters who recoil from his handling of the U.S. response to the war in the Middle East? Can he defuse criticisms about inflation and immigration? The most searing moment, for two candidates dogged by questions about age and acuity, could be something unsaid. In a 1984 debate, Ronald Reagan stirred concern when he lost his way and abandoned a story about the Pacific Coast Highway; in 2011, Rick Perry’s primary bid all but ended when he blanked on the name of a government agency he intended to eliminate. (“Oops,” he said.) At times, a turn in history is obvious even as it is happening. While watching the 1960 debate, Nixon’s running mate, Henry Cabot Lodge, reportedly told those around him, “That son of a bitch just lost us the election.”

Joe Biden also beat Donald Trump twice in debates 4 years ago. But I know Donald's memory isn't that good so he probably forgot about it. https://t.co/EWo9l0TaAX

— The Biden Accomplishments Guy (@What46HasDone) June 21, 2024

Upon one thing all viewers can agree: If Biden *is* adjudged to have won the debate, his associates are gonna have to hide all sharp objects the NYTimes‘ Sulzberger #failson might access…

This whole "BUT what are the 'voters' FEELING" genre is getting so repulsive to me pic.twitter.com/o6T2ZdtEeP

— vocational politics appreciation account (@Convolutedname) June 24, 2024

Maggie Haberman Says Trump Raring To Bring Up Hunter At 'Much Uglier Debate' When Biden Hits His Convictions https://t.co/vZ55WaLiLo via @mediaite pic.twitter.com/YcKJi9h68f

— Tommy moderna-vaX-Topher (@tommyxtopher) June 20, 2024

Scenes from Biden debate prep: A movie theater and a hangar at Camp David are morphing into mock debate stages. Brian Deese is returning for econ help. Some of prep will focus on avoiding incumbency traps. “The rust factor is real” says Axelrod. Etc. https://t.co/SJnQpqisAZ

— Katie Rogers (@katierogers) June 24, 2024

Dank Grey Dawn Open Thread: Debate PrepPost + Comments (79)

Open Thread: We Have a Boebert Problem

by TaMara| June 24, 202410:44 pm| 50 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Politics, Republican Stupidity, Republican Venality

A while back Mistermix had a dire warning about Boebert – I scoffed at his assessment. How could this carpetbagger that voters in general can not stand, win CO4. I mean she had to move from her district to super safe Red CO4 because she was in danger of losing to a DEMOCRAT of all things. She is toxic.

Now, as we look to the primaries tomorrow, I’m super worried we will be stuck with Boebert for the long term. Not because she’s popular, but because the CO GOP is in disarray. I doubt, besides polluting the airwaves and local theatres, she’ll have any effect on governance. She’s too stupid and lazy to do much more than promote Lauren Boenbert. But OMG, she’s a complete embarrassment for our state.

Because of the stupidity and dysfunction of the CO GOP, there are SIX candidates running in the GOP CO4 primary. And the general assumption is, that whoever wins the GOP primary will run away with the vote in the general in NOV

And with so many candidates running, it won’t take but a few votes for Boebert to win the primary. And why? Not because she has a lot of support – it’s because she has 5 opponents, who couldn’t find a way to set aside their egos and find one Republican to run against her. Our favorite debate moderator explains:

And now I’m annoyed, but District 4 gets what it deserves…probably no matter who they elect. Buck was no prize, no friend to Colorado, women, LGBTQ+, or the environment… and neither will whatever moron they elect this time. I’m just sorry to say, we may well be stuck with Boebert for the foreseeable future. As a proud Coloradoan, I apologize.

Governor Polis is interviewed by fellow (former) Coloradoan Tim Miller:

Primary is tomorrow. I am not expecting good news.

This is an open thread

Open Thread: We Have a Boebert ProblemPost + Comments (50)

Every reporter and pundit should have to declare if they ever vacationed with a billionaire.

It’s the corruption, stupid.

Good lord, these people are nuts.

Dear Washington Post, you are the darkness now.

I’m starting to think Jesus may have made a mistake saving people with no questions asked.

Jack be nimble, jack be quick, hurry up and indict this prick.

The worst democrat is better than the best republican.

When they say they are pro-life, they do not mean yours.

It’s a good piece. click on over. but then come back!!

Jesus watching the most hateful people claiming to be his followers

Come on, man.

It may be funny to you motherfucker, but it’s not funny to me.

Lick the third rail, it tastes like chocolate!

So many bastards, so little time.

Not rolling over. fuck you, make me.

Shallow, uninformed, and lacking identity

Whatever happens next week, the fight doesn’t end.

Today in our ongoing national embarrassment…

Innocent people do not delay justice.

Since we are repeating ourselves, let me just say fuck that.

Be a wild strawberry.

Republicans do not trust women.

I’d hate to be the candidate who lost to this guy.

It is possible to do the right thing without the promise of a cookie.

Late Night Open Thread: CO Primary Update

War for Ukraine Day 853: A Brief(ish) Tuesday Night Update

We Will Implement Everything Necessary to Advance Through Each Chapter of Our Relations with the EU – the Address by the President

Can’t Win for Losing Open Thread: ‘An Inconvenient Gift: Green Jobs’

Tuesday Afternoon Fill In the Blanks Open Thread

Tuesday Morning Open Thread: ‘We Are Going to Win’

Dank Grey Dawn Open Thread: Debate Prep

Open Thread: We Have a Boebert Problem