Here’s the details on the latest US aid package:

🇺🇸 @DeptofDefense announced a new military aid package for Ukraine valued at $225 million.

The capabilities in this package include:
◾️Missiles for HAWK air defense systems
◾️Stinger anti-aircraft missiles
◾️Ammunition for HIMARS
◾️155mm Howitzers
◾️155mm and 105mm artillery… pic.twitter.com/owinqmBeof

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 7, 2024

🇺🇸 @DeptofDefense
announced a new military aid package for Ukraine valued at $225 million.

The capabilities in this package include:
◾️Missiles for HAWK air defense systems
◾️Stinger anti-aircraft missiles
◾️Ammunition for HIMARS
◾️155mm Howitzers
◾️155mm and 105mm artillery rounds
◾️81mm mortar systems
◾️M113 Armored Personnel Carriers
◾️Trailers to transport heavy equipment
◾️Coastal and riverine patrol boats
◾️TOW missiles
◾️Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems
◾️Small arms ammunition and grenades
◾️Demolitions munitions
◾️Night vision devices
◾️Spare parts, maintenance, and other ancillary equipment

Thank you for supporting Ukraine in our fight for freedom.
Together, to victory!🇺🇦🤝🇺🇸

The EU:

Done ✅

Today, the European Commission confirmed that Ukraine had implemented all the remaining steps to start talks.

Looking forward to EU Member States decision on adopting the negotiation framework with Ukraine and the actual start of the accession negotiations.

— Olga Stefanishyna (@StefanishynaO) June 7, 2024

Germany:

Germany Weighs Sending Ukraine Fourth Patriot Air-Defense System. The final decision has not yet been made.- Bloomberg

The Patriot battery could come on top of the three that Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government has pledged already, including as recently as April, according to… pic.twitter.com/pEMrEg6J4s

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 7, 2024

Germany Weighs Sending Ukraine Fourth Patriot Air-Defense System. The final decision has not yet been made.- Bloomberg

The Patriot battery could come on top of the three that Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government has pledged already, including as recently as April, according to people familiar with the matter.

https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-07/germany-weighs-sending-ukraine-fourth-patriot-air-defense-system

The pledges to send more Patriot batteries are great. The problem is that the flash to bang between pledge and delivery is taking too long.

Donetsk Oblast:

Ukrainian defenders continue to repel russian attacks in the Donetsk region.

📹: 79th Air Assault Brigade pic.twitter.com/cnkw2Tulc3

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 7, 2024

Kharkiv Oblast:

Beautiful timelapse of the sky in Kharkiv. Despite the glow from Belgorod’s launches, it’s still my favorite sky.

Video by Vlad Vasylenko pic.twitter.com/p9waNbijwa

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) June 7, 2024

Russian occupied Luhansk Oblast:

Russian-occupied Luhansk now.

Reportedly, a Russian military base is under attack. pic.twitter.com/kBES7saG2I

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) June 7, 2024

Russian military base in Luhansk which was targeted today. As Russians claim by ATACMS. Satellite images for June 6 and May 28, 2024

Red building on the left side of the image was hit.
More footages in the thread🧵https://t.co/OkN85G48XZ https://t.co/l38eNQFNuq pic.twitter.com/4ruE6x9ROW

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 7, 2024

/7. During todays strikes on Luhansk one of the Russian air defence missiles failed and crashed into civilian building.

As Russian media say, three people were killed when part of the building collapsed.

Russian Izvestia media published footages of the debris found in the… pic.twitter.com/R7OlVQSw5f

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 7, 2024

/7. During todays strikes on Luhansk one of the Russian air defence missiles failed and crashed into civilian building.

As Russian media say, three people were killed when part of the building collapsed.

Russian Izvestia media published footages of the debris found in the area claiming that those belong to ATACMS.

The only problem is that these debris shown by Russian Izvestia media are debris of a missile used by Russian S-300/400 air

/9. The moment a crash of a Russian failed 5V55 air defense missile on Lugansk pic.twitter.com/QHiHyv8DeC

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 7, 2024

Hlyboke:

A friend shared this video with me today, the 92nd brigade at work, pounding russian positions in Hlyboke. the spot where it drives is very interesting, the devastating effects of it’s 30mm cannon.

This assault gave our defenders a small but important tactical gain.

Please like… pic.twitter.com/fkY18OWmXS

— ✙ Constantine ✙ (@Teoyaomiquu) June 7, 2024

A friend shared this video with me today, the 92nd brigade at work, pounding russian positions in Hlyboke. the spot where it drives is very interesting, the devastating effects of it’s 30mm cannon.

This assault gave our defenders a small but important tactical gain.

Please like and rt, it helps a lot.

I’m pretty sure this is the Hlyboke in Kharkiv Oblast, not the one in Odesa or Chernivitsi Oblasts.

I’m also pretty sure this is video of the same exchange – Bradley versus Russia BTR – from a different angle as the one above:

I think this qualifies as arguably the world’s first Brandley drive-by.

Fucking legends.

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) June 7, 2024

Novomykhailivka-Vulhedar axis:

Destruction of the same Russian AFV column as in the post attached. Novomykhailivka-Vuhledar area. https://t.co/6a94j6m25b https://t.co/qDiLac5xdP pic.twitter.com/Tn3KWbhHL7

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 7, 2024

Russian occupied Crimea:

💅Two pink Russian MiG-31B at Belbek airfield, Sevastopol, Crimea. https://t.co/CwTRbxdNfa pic.twitter.com/A1J5pLcWdk

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 7, 2024

It is Pride month after all!

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

A new video from Patron’s official TikTok!

@patron__dsns

З Днем народження, мій найкращий друже❤️

♬ original sound – Zach Bryan Archive

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

Happy birthday, my best friend ❤️

Open thread!

Here is the President’s address at Normandy. Video followed by the English transcript. (emphasis mine)

Remarks by PresidentBiden Commemorating the 80th Anniversary of D-Day | Collevile-sur-Mer, France

Normandy American Cemetery
Colleville-sur-Mer, France

2:01 P.M. CEST

THE PRESIDENT:  The hour had nearly come.  Monday, June 5th, 1944.

The evil of (inaudible) Third Reich was devastating the world.  Nazi Germany had subjugated the once-free nations of Europe through brute force, lies, and twisted ideology of racial superiority.

Millions of Jews murdered in the Holocaust.  Millions of others killed by bombs, bullets, bloody warfare.

Hitler and those with him thought democracies were weak, that the future belonged to dictators.

Here, on the coast of Normandy, the battle between freedom and tyranny would be joined.  Here, on that June morning, the testing was at hand.

President Macron, Mrs. Macron, Secretary Austin, Secretary Blinken, distinguished guests.  Most of all, our honored veterans, who met that test to the ages — a test of ages to that moment 80 years ago — 80 years ago today.  (Applause.)

On behalf of the American people and as Commander-in-Chief, it’s the highest honor to be able to salute you here in Normandy once more — all of you.  God love you.  (Applause.)

Winston Churchill called what happened here, quote, “the greatest, most complicated operation ever,” end of quote.

After years of planning, Operation Overlord was ready to launch just as soon as the weather turned.  Across the choppy Eng- — choppy Eng- — English Channel, the Supreme Commander of the Allies, Dwight D. Eisenhower, waited.  The largest force ever of its kind, built by 12 nations — men, guns, planes, naval craft of every description — waited.  The world, captive and free, waited.

Finally, Eisenhower’s forecasters said there was a window in the weather.  It would open briefly on Tuesday the 6th of June.

The general weighed the options and gave the order: At dawn, the Allies would strike.  The “Great Crusade” to free Europe from tyranny would begin.

That night, General Eisenhower drove to the English town of Newbury to visit paratroopers of the 101st Airborne.  They were men from all over America.  It was estimated that 80 percent of them would be killed within hours.  That was the estimate.  But they were brave, they were resolute, and they were ready.

One soldier told General Eisenhower, quote, “Don’t worry, sor- — sir.  The 101st is on the job.  Everything will be taken care of.”  That’s what he said.

And because of their courage and their resolve, because of the courage and resolve of their allies, it was taken care of.

From the sea and sky, nearly 160,000 Allied troops descended on Normandy.  Many, to state the obvious, never came home.  Many survived that “longest day,” kept on fighting for months until victory was finally won.  And a few, a noble band of brothers, are here with us today.

Kenneth Blaine Smith is here.  On that day, under heavy artillery fire, he operated a range finder and radar on the first American ship to arrive at Normandy’s coast, providing direct gunfire support for the Rangers scaling the cliffs of Pointe du Hoc on their daring mission to take out the German batteries.

Bob Gibson is here.  He landed on Utah Beach about 10 hours after the invasion began.  Bullets flying everywhere.  Tracers lighting up the sky.  Bob drove an M4 tractor with an anti-aircraft gun mounted on top, providing critical protection for the infantry against the German air force.  On that day and for many days after, he continued.

Ben Miller is here.  A medic with the 82nd Airborne.  At 3:00 a.m. on June 6th, he and 13 other medics flew over the Channel in a rickety glider.  Its wings were ripped off by giant poles that the Germans buried halfway in the ground to stop them from landing.  They crashed, but they survived.  And they did their duty: dragging injured soldiers to safety, treating wounds, saving lives while the battle raged.

Every soldier who stormed the beach, who dropped by parachute or landed by glider; every sailor who manned the thousands of ships and landing craft; every aviator who destroyed German-controlled air fields, bridges, and railroads — all — all were backed by other brave Americans, including hundreds of thousands of people of color and women who courageously served despite unjust limitations on what they could do for their nation.

Louis Brown is here.  Part of the “Red Ball Express,” a truck convoy made up mostly of African American drivers.  They landed at Normandy in the wake of D-Day.  They rushed supplies to the rapidly advancing frontlines.

Woody Woodhouse is here.  Members of the legendary Tuskegee Airmen, who flew over 15,000 sorties during the war.

Marjorie Stone is here.  She enlisted in the women’s branch of the Naval Reserve, became an aircraft mechanic, spent the war keeping American planes and pilots in the air.

Theirs has always been the story of America.  Just walk the rows of this cemetery, as I have.  Nearly 10,000 heroes buried side by side, officers and enlisted, immigrants and native-born.  Different races, different faiths, but all Americans.  All served with honor when America and the world needed them most.

Millions back home did their part as well.  From coast to coast, Americans found countless ways to pitch in.  They understood our democracy is only as strong as all of us make it, together. 

The men who fought here became heroes not because they were the strongest or toughest or were fiercest — although they were — but because they were given an audacious mission knowing — every one of them knew the probability of dying was real, but they did it anyway.  They knew, beyond any doubt, there are things that are worth fighting and dying for. 

Freedom is worth it.  Democracy is worth it.  America is worth it.  The world is worth it — then, now, and always. 

The war in Europe didn’t end for another 11 months.  But here the tide turned in our favor.  Here we proved the forces of liberty are stronger than the forces of conquest.  Here we proved that the ideals of our democracy are stronger than any army or combination of armies in the entire world.

We proved something else here as well: the unbreakable unity of the Allies.

Here with us are men who served alongside the Americans that day, wearing different flags on their arms but fighting with the same courage, for the same purpose. 

What the Allies did together 80 years ago far surpassed anything we could have done on our own.  It was a powerful illustration of how alliances — real alliances — make us stronger — a lesson that I pray we Americans never forget.  

Together, we won the war.  We rebuilt Europe, including our former enemies.  It was an investment in what became shared and a prosperous future. 

We established NATO, the greatest military alliance in the history of the world.  And over time — (applause) — you got it; it is — and over time, we brought more nations into NATO — the NATO Alliance, including the newest members: Finland and Sweden.  (Applause.) 

Today, NATO stands at 32 countries strong.  And NATO is more united than ever and even more prepared to keep the peace, deter aggression, defend freedom all around the world. 

America has invested in our alliances and forged new ones — not simply out of altruism but out of our own self-interest as well.

America’s unique ability to bring countries together is an un- — undeniable source of our strength and our power.  Isolationism was not the answer 80 years ago, and it is not the answer today.  (Applause.)

We know the dark forces that these heroes fought against 80 years ago.  They never fade.  Aggression and greed, the desire to dominate and control, to change borders by force — these are perennial.  And the struggle between a dictatorship and freedom is unending. 

Here, in Europe, we see one stark example.  Ukraine has been invaded by a tyrant bent on domination.  

Ukrainians are fighting with extraordinary courage, suffering great losses, but never backing down.  (Applause.)

They’ve inflicted on the Russian aggressors — they’ve suffered tremendous losses, Russia.  The numbers are staggering — 350,000 Russian troops dead or wounded.  Nearly 1 million people have left Russia because they can no longer see a future in Russia. 

The United States and NATO and a coalition of more than 50 countries standing strong with Ukraine.  We will not walk away — (applause) — because if we do, Ukraine will be subjugated. 

And it will not end there.  Ukraine’s neighbors will be threatened.  All of Europe will be threatened. 

And make no mistake, the autocrats of the world are watching closely to see what happens in Ukraine, to see if we let this illegal aggression go unchecked.  We cannot let that happen. 

To surrender to bullies, to bow down to dictators is simply unthinkable.  (Applause.)  Were we to do that, it means we’d be forgetting what happened here on these hallowed beaches. 

Make no mistake:  We will not bow down.  We will not forget. 

Let me end with this.  History tells us freedom is not free.  If you want to know the price of freedom, come here to Normandy.  Come to Normandy and look.  Go to the other cemeteries in Europe where our fallen heroes rest.  Go back home to Arlington Cemetery. 

Tomorrow, I will pay respects at Pointe du Hoc.  Go there as well and remember: The price of unchecked tyranny is the blood of the young and the brave.

In their generation, in their hour of trial, the Allied forces of D-Day did their duty.  Now the question for us is: In our hour of trial, will we do ours?

We’re living in a time when democracy is more at risk across the world than at any point since the end of the World War Two — since these beaches were stormed in 1944. 

Now, we have to ask ourselves: Will we stand against tyranny, against evil, against crushing brutality of the iron fist? 

Will we stand for freedom?  Will we defend democracy?  Will we stand together?  (Applause.)

My answer is yes.  And it only can be yes.  (Applause.)

We’re not far off from the time when the last living voices of those who fought and bled on D-Day will no longer be with us.  So, we have a special obligation.  We cannot let what happened here be lost in the silence of the years to come.  We must remember it, must honor it, and live it.

And we must remember: The fact that they were heroes here that day does not absolve us from what we have to do today. 

Democracy is never guaranteed.  Every generation must preserve it, defend it, and fight for it.  That’s the test of the ages. 

In memory of those who fought here, died here, literally saved the world here, let us be worthy of their sacrifice.  Let us be the generation that when history is written about our time — in 10, 20, 30, 50, 80 years from now — it will be said: When the moment came, we met the moment.  We stood strong.  Our alliances were made stronger.  And we saved democracy in our time as well. 

Thank you very much.

And may God bless you all.  And may God protect our troops.

Thank you.  (Applause.)

2:17 P.M. CEST

VIDEO: Powerful images of the D-Day landings have resurfaced 80 years after they were taken by American cameramen on Omaha Beach and Utah Beach. French documentarian Dominique Forget rediscovered the forgotten footage and wants to preserve and honour their memory.#AFPVertical pic.twitter.com/TrWX09bkn0

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) June 5, 2024

Japan:

На запит 🇺🇦 уряду Міністерство оборони 🇯🇵 та Сили самооборони 🇯🇵 надали 🇺🇦 серію транспортних засобів за рішенням, прийнятим у травні 2023 року.

Партія зі 101 автомобіля прибула до Польщі 5 червня, а потім була передана 🇺🇦.

🇯🇵 і надалі підтримуватиме 🇺🇦.

🇺🇦🤝🇯🇵 pic.twitter.com/5RxlQsy2PI

— Посольство Японії в Україні (@JPEmbUA) June 6, 2024

Here’s the machine translation:

At the request 🇺🇦 of the government, the Ministry of Defense 🇯🇵 and the Self-Defense Forces 🇯🇵 provided 🇺🇦 a series of vehicles in a decision taken in May 2023.

A batch of 101 cars arrived in Poland on June 5 and was then handed over 🇺🇦 .

🇯🇵 will continue to support 🇺🇦 .

🇺🇦🤝🇯🇵

France:

France is sending Mirage-2000 jets to Ukraine and starting pilot training program tomorrow. D-Day will come for Ukraine one day too! pic.twitter.com/Hm3oQdQg0b

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) June 6, 2024

The Mirage decision looks to have been taken recently, as in February it didn’t seem it would happen. https://t.co/hkjUlw1hg4

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) June 6, 2024

France24 has the details:

“Tomorrow we will launch a new cooperation and announce the transfer of Mirage 2000-5” fighter jets to Ukraine made by French manufacturer Dassault and train their Ukrainian pilots in France, Macron told French TV.

Macron said he would offer Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky when the two meet for talks at the Elysee Palace in Paris on Friday that the pilots be trained from this summer.

“You need normally between five-six months. So by the end of the year there will be pilots. The pilots will be trained in France,” he said.

He did not specify how many of the fighter jets would be delivered. Contacted by AFP, the defence ministry did not elaborate.

Macron said Ukraine was facing a “huge challenge” training soldiers as it sought to mobilise tens of thousands more troops to go to the front.

He said France would equip and train an entire brigade of 4,500 Ukrainian soldiers so they can defend themselves when they return to Ukraine from training.

Kyiv has been pushing Europe to increase its military support, with Russia in recent months gaining the upper hand on the battlefield.

Zelensky’s visit to France, where on Thursday he attended ceremonies for the 80^th anniversary of D-Day and crossed paths with US President Joe Biden, is seen as a crucial time to drum up more help.

Macron said Ukraine has asked its Western allies to send military instructors to train its forces on its soil to meet the growing challenge to build up troop numbers.

“The Ukrainian president and his minister of defence asked all the allies — 48 hours ago in an official letter—saying ‘we need you to train us quicker and that you do this on our soil’,” Macron said.

There had been speculation that Macron could swiftly announce the sending of French instructors to Ukraine, even after his talks with Zelensky on Friday.

But he said France and its allies would come together and decide and also emphasised that he did not believe any such moves by Paris were “escalatory”.

“We are working with our partners and we will act on the basis of a collective decision,” he said.

Macron has decided that he is going to do everything possible to get to yes in terms of support for Ukraine.

If you’re wondering about the F-16s and the pilot training, Politico has the unpleasant details: (emphasis mine)

Ukrainian officials are pressing the U.S. and other countries to ramp up their F-16 pilot training, saying the current pipeline isn’t producing enough aviators to fly the jets that will be soon donated to Kyiv.

Ukraine says it has 30 pilots who are eligible to start training in the U.S. immediately. Yet the Biden administration has told Kyiv it lacks the school seats in its Arizona-based program to accept more than 12 pilot trainees at a time, according to three people with direct knowledge of the request. Two other facilities in Denmark and Romania have a similar issue with available training spots.

It’s the latest hurdle in the drawn-out effort to get modern F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. Kyiv began pushing for the aircraft in the months following Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, but was repeatedly rebuffed by the Biden administration. In May 2023, President Joe Biden greenlit other countries’ requests to send their F-16s, but logistical challenges repeatedly delayed the training. Further complicating the effort, it took months for Western countries to agree to send their own aircraft to Ukraine.

Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands and Belgium plan to ship more than 60 U.S.-made F-16 jets to Kyiv this summer. Ukrainians argue that the ability to fly more F-16s will help Kyiv push back Russian forces from the frontlines in places such as Kharkiv, where Moscow has advanced in recent weeks. Yet the U.S. has said it does not expect the jets to be a game-changer on the battlefield.

This story is based on interviews with eight former and current U.S., Ukrainian and European officials and lawmakers, many of whom were granted anonymity to speak about sensitive diplomatic conversations.

In a series of meetings and calls over the last several weeks, Ukraine has officially requested the U.S. train the additional pilots at Morris Air National Guard base in Tucson, Arizona. Lawmakers on Capitol Hill, including Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.) and Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio), the leaders of the House Intelligence Committee, have also pressed the administration to approve the additional training. The pair, along with several other lawmakers, wrote the Pentagon a letter last month asking the administration to prioritize the issue.

But the U.S. has told the Ukrainian military that in addition to limited space, other countries are in line for F-16 training at the base and that it cannot break its commitments to those nations.

“We understand they don’t want to break those contracts, but they could move their American pilots to a different base for training,” said Sasha Ustinova, a Ukrainian lawmaker who has advocated for the training.

The National Guard is planning to train 12 Ukrainian pilots total by the end of September at the Tucson location, according to Air Force spokesperson Laurel Falls. Aside from Arizona, the training facility in Denmark also has limited space and is preparing to shutter in November. A third program, which is located in Romania and will be run by contractors, is not yet up and running.

“Dozens” of pilots from several countries are conducting basic flight training and F-16 training in the U.S. and Europe, said Pentagon spokesperson Maj. Charlie Dietz, declining to confirm specific numbers.

“We have developed and are implementing a training plan that meets forecasted aircraft fielding timelines, which are ultimately shaped by a number of factors, including maintenance and sustainment needs, infrastructure and support equipment requirements, and aircraft sourcing timelines, as well as pilot throughput,” Dietz said.

Maj. Erin Hannigan, a spokesperson for the Arizona National Guard, confirmed that space in the program is limited due to commitments to other countries’ training requests, funding and the completion by potential students of English language requirements.

“On top of the Ukrainian students, there are multiple other countries that have reserved training throughout the year,” Hannigan said. “The number of foreign student pilots and where they come from is not determined by our schoolhouse, there are many other factors that play a part in the numbers such as funding, country requests, graduation of students from English learning and allotment.”

The Air Force also trains F-16 pilots at Luke Air Force Base, Arizona, and Joint Base San Antonio, Texas, but those programs also have limited spaces for international students. Those spots are typically reserved well in advance for pilots from other countries that operate the F-16.

Another eight Ukrainian pilots are being trained in Denmark, according to a former DOD official involved in the program. But that facility is set to close next year and will no longer participate in the training, as Denmark’s Air Force transitions to the stealthy F-35.

Meanwhile, F-16-maker Lockheed Martin and its subcontractor, Draken, are also preparing to train pilots at a facility in Romania, but that program is expensive and also will have limited spots, according to the former official and a person familiar with the program. A Lockheed spokesperson referred questions about the Romania facility to the governments of the U.S., Romania and the Netherlands.

A total of 20 Ukrainian F-16 pilots are expected to graduate by the end of this year — half of the 40 needed to operate a full squadron of 20 jets, according to the former DOD official. Eight new pilots are scheduled to begin training in Romania, and eight more will soon arrive in Tucson, the former official said. The facility in Denmark will not accept any additional pilots.

Among the training facilities, only four slots will be open for Ukrainian pilots through the remainder of the year, according to the person familiar.

Meanwhile, U.S. officials have warned for months that the F-16 will not make a huge difference on the battlefield for Ukraine.

While the jets “will give the Ukrainians an increment of capability that they don’t have right now … it’s not going to be a dramatic game-changer as far as I’m concerned for their total military capabilities,” Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall said last year.

In the Kharkiv area, for example, one U.S. official said Ukraine will not be able to fly the jets to the border with Russia or into Russian territory, because Moscow’s air defense systems will easily spot them and shoot them down.

But officials involved in the program said the aircraft will still provide a significant advantage for Kyiv, eventually. When Ukraine initially gets its F-16s and pilots, they will likely be able to fly only limited missions, for example, against drones and cruise missiles on the front lines, the former DOD official said. Once they get a full squadron worth of aircraft and pilots, it’s “completely realistic” to fly the F-16s to the border and shoot into Russia given the jet’s radar, targeting system and missiles — all of which are superior to Ukraine’s Soviet-era fleet.

But at this rate, Ukraine won’t have a full squadron of trained pilots until the end of 2025, the former official said.

Another issue is the weapons the planes will be carrying.

Ukrainians plan to use the jets to knock down Russian cruise and ballistic missiles fired toward Ukrainian infrastructure and civilian targets.

Those missions require precise air-to-air missiles that belong to the U.S. and dozens of NATO allies. Many of those countries are hesitant to part with their expensive weapons, one NATO official said.

The production capacity for the AIM-120 advanced medium-range air-to-air missile, made by RTX, has increased from around 500-800 per year to over 1,000, company officials said last year, in order to keep with demand. Ukraine has already used an older version of the missile with the ground-based National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System to hit Russian missiles.

But the worry from capitals is that the new requests from Kyiv could begin to put a strain on countries’ stocks, and talks among alliance members are looking at who might be able to part with their missiles, and how many, and when, the official said.

2025! Sometime in 2025! C’mon man, give me a break!

Again, we are 2 and 1/2 years into this current large scale operations portion of this war that started in 2014 and we still can’t get any of this sorted out. This isn’t because it is hard, it is because there is a lack of a coherent policy, a feasible, acceptable, and suitable strategy to achieve that policy, and the political will to actually do what needs to be done. I have no doubt there are other countries’ pilots in the queue ahead of Ukraine’s. There’s two reasons for that. The first is the Biden administration jerked Ukraine around for almost two years on the provision of F-16s, training pilots to fly them and air crews to service them. The second is that unless those other countries whose pilots are in the training rotation ahead of Ukraine are fighting existential wars of survival against a genocidal re-invasion by their larger and more militarily powerful neighbor, then we can prioritize better and they can wait! There are only three options for this stupendously ridiculous situation: 1) incompetence, 2) cowardice, or 3) a combination of the two.

Speaking of anniversaries:

On this day a year ago, russian occupiers blew up the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant’s dam.

As a result of this deliberate crime, thousands of people were affected, and hundreds of thousands were left without access to clean drinking water. Also, irreparable damage was… pic.twitter.com/bg4VOHx94A

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 6, 2024

On this day a year ago, russian occupiers blew up the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant’s dam.

As a result of this deliberate crime, thousands of people were affected, and hundreds of thousands were left without access to clean drinking water. Also, irreparable damage was caused to the environment.

The occupiers continue inflicting pain and suffering on the Ukrainian people. They must be punished for such crimes. The world should help Ukraine achieve a just peace and protect our people.

📹:
@United24media

And heroism under fire far from home:

Three years ago, a Ukrainian special forces team left Kabul Airport to rescue @globeandmail‘s translators. Six months later, their own country was invaded by Russia. The Kabul Team has been on the front lines ever since. This is the story of their war https://t.co/bUd2d7iJWp

— Mark MacKinnon (@markmackinnon) June 6, 2024

From The Globe and Mail: (emphasis mine)

The Ukrainian military helicopter had been shot down about seven kilometres behind Russian lines, crashing in a field browned by winter, on the edge of a leafless forest. Those aboard were scattered dead and mortally wounded across the burning landscape of southern Ukraine weeks after the Russian invasion.

Trying to reach the casualties – the crew of the helicopter, plus fighters who had been rescued from the besieged port city of Mariupol before the craft was shot down on its return trip – would be something close to a suicide mission. The last person who should have taken the assignment was Nazar Borovytskyi.

The helicopter missions into Mariupol were seen as so risky that each team – usually a pilot, a mechanic and two special-forces fighters from Ukraine’s HUR military intelligence service – was only supposed to make the trip once. The soldiers joked among themselves that they were volunteering for seats on a one-way flight.

Nazar, 28, had already flown two such missions in the spring of 2022, escaping both times with a handful of injured fighters from a surrounded steel factory in a shattered city slowly falling under Russian control. Now one of the missions had gone awry, necessitating an even more dangerous rescue.

It was definitely not his turn, but when the commander asked for volunteers, Nazar asked to be sent back in.

In the framed photograph on the wall of the HUR headquarters, Nazar, muscular, with chiselled cheekbones and a dark blond beard, stands in the back row wearing a black T-shirt under his camouflage bulletproof vest.

The image, displayed outside the Kyiv office of Lieutenant-General Kyrylo Budanov, captures a group of Ukrainian soldiers in what was then one of the most dangerous places in the world – the Kabul airport in the summer of 2021. The soldiers were members of a specially assembled unit that flew multiple missions to rescue Ukrainian nationals, as well as one of The Globe and Mail’s translators and his family, from Kabul ahead of the anticipated Taliban takeover. An inscription in the corner reads “26.08.2021, Kabul, Afghanistan.”

In all, there were 32 operatives – 30 men and two women – on the ground in Kabul that day, plus the pilots and crew of the military cargo plane. All except the pilots were experienced HUR officers.

When the team landed in Kyiv after flying the third and final planeload of evacuees out of the country, they would be greeted by Gen. Budanov, as well as President Volodymyr Zelensky’s chief of staff. Medals would follow.

The mission is remembered fondly by the team because it was short, the team accomplished what they needed to, and they came home to a hero’s welcome. In other words, it was everything the current war with Russia is not.

A few days after the rescue, I flew to Kyiv to assist the Afghans – and to thank the team of strangers who had carried out the mission.

An officer code-named Markus had been my point of contact throughout the rescue. I didn’t know him, but he had been co-ordinating from Kyiv as the Ukrainians ventured outside Kabul airport on Aug. 27, and escorted the families of Sharif Sharaf, The Globe’s long-time Afghan news assistant, and Jawed Haqmal, a translator who had worked with the Canadian military. Markus and I met for drinks along with Dima Logginov, a medic and communications specialist who had been on the ground in Kabul and had taken part in the mission.

Five months later, as Russia was amassing its forces ahead of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, I ran into both Markus and Dima again separately as they helped prepare their country’s defences. I came to understand that the HUR special-forces team that had been deployed to Kabul in the summer of 2021 were indeed the country’s elite, and I became intent on covering their struggle to defend their country.

Markus eventually introduced me to Gen. Budanov, who agreed to give The Globe unprecedented access to his top fighters, a group brought together for the 2021 mission but usually serve in different, smaller units deployed on the hottest sections of the front line in Ukraine. I was taken to the secret base of the special-forces fighter code-named Shaman, and debated God and the rules of war with the leader of the most feared battalion fighting on the Ukrainian side of the war against Russia. I was given permission to meet one of the founders of a unit that had led the defence of Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv – and found him deeply worried about what comes next.

I spoke to Lieutenant-Colonel Iryna Andrukh, a military psychologist who played a very different role on the ground in Kabul – and who nearly became a casualty there.

Eventually, I met Maks, the commander of the team in Kabul, who today heads his own unit as it contends with a dwindling supply of ammunition on Ukraine’s southern Zaporizhzhia front. I spent hours talking to Cesar, one of Gen. Budanov’s deputies, who played a lead role both in Kabul and in designing the overall strategy in the country’s war against Russia and who wonders whether the West has the stomach for what’s to come.

I also met with members of the Kabul Team who have been wounded, family members of one who has been killed, and heard whispers of discontent from inside the ranks about how they have been pushed to the limits – and beyond – over the 27-plus months since Russia invaded their country.

This is the story of their war.

Ukraine’s HUR military intelligence service was born in 1992, shortly after independent Ukraine was itself reborn from the ashes of the Soviet Union. Ukraine’s early security and defence policies were often indistinguishable from Moscow’s, and soldiers and spies who had served the Soviet Union dominated Ukraine’s new security services.

All that changed in early 2014, when a popular revolution on the streets of Kyiv overthrew the pro-Russian government of Viktor Yanukovych. A furious Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered masked troops to seize the strategic Crimean Peninsula, in the south of Ukraine, which Mr. Putin annexed shortly afterward. Other Russian operatives appeared in Donbas, a largely Russian-speaking region in Ukraine’s southeast, stirring up a proxy war that would kill 14,000 people between its outbreak in 2014 and the start of the full-scale invasion.

At the beginning of the Donbas conflict, the country was unprepared to fight its giant neighbour, one many Ukrainians had a hard time even perceiving as an enemy. But attitudes quickly hardened. In 2016, then-president Petro Poroshenko unveiled an overhaul of HUR that included a new logo – an owl plunging a giant sword into a map of Russia. It surely wasn’t missed in Moscow that the mascot of Russia’s own military intelligence service was a bat, and owls are one of the few creatures that prey on bats.

The logo captured the spirit of a service that quickly became the backbone of the new fight for Ukraine’s full independence.

Nazar Borovytskyi always wanted to be a soldier. When he was in the fourth grade, he was bullied; he took up sports and started training “so that he could push back,” his mother, Lesya, recalled in September, 2023, when I visited the family home in Pashkivka, a tiny farming town in the Poltava region. Nazar grew up there after his parents and older sister Oksana were relocated from their former home on the edge of the Chornobyl nuclear disaster zone.

Sports and fitness became an obsession for Nazar. Oksana recalls her brother, while doing pull-ups on a bar their father had set up for him in the garden, asking her to throw a basketball at his stomach as hard as she could. He wanted it to hurt, to build up his tolerance for pain.

He had good grades, Lesya said, but when he graduated from high school he applied only to the academy of the country’s SBU security service. Before he had even graduated, Nazar responded to a call for volunteers, and found himself fighting in the proxy war.

It was on the battlefields of Donbas in 2016 that Nazar, then a member of a different special forces unit, first encountered the HUR team, when his unit was assigned to work with them. Nazar ended up fighting side-by-side with Ivan, a fighter from western Ukraine who was the same age and who had also bucked his parents’ wishes and joined the military.

The mission was a success, though the skirmish is likely to go unremembered in the long history of Russia’s war on Ukraine. Ivan and Nazar became fast friends and later that year Ivan helped recruit Nazar to a unit that would be sent to the United States for a three-month training course. Nazar’s friends dubbed him “Universal Soldier” after the 1992 Jean-Claude Van Damme movie about the half-man, half-cyborg perfect fighter. A hero who was supposed to be impossible to kill.

After the events of 2014 – as Russia faced sanctions for annexing Crimea – Mr. Putin’s Kremlin came to see itself in a struggle not just with Ukraine, but the entire West. Though Western governments wanted to avoid direct conflict with Russia, the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency began looking for ways to covertly join the battle against its Cold War adversary.

In 2016, the CIA reached out to HUR with an offer to train top operatives in the United States; in exchange, the newly formed Unit 2245 would share what it learned on the battlefield – including any technology it captured – with the CIA so that it could better understand their shared adversary. The training covered everything from how to provide close protection to their country’s political leaders to more advanced types of spycraft.

Gen. Budanov was one of the initial Unit 2245 members – as was Maks, a 41-year-old with deep brown eyes and a square jaw, whom Gen. Budanov selected to lead the initial reconnaissance mission into Kabul in the summer of 2021. He was a natural choice, having served in Afghanistan in 2009 and 2010 as a member of the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force. He had also fought as part of Unit 2245 in Donbas, preceding Russia’s full-scale invasion.

Maks had only a couple of days to prepare after Gen. Budanov asked him, on Aug. 13, 2021, to head a team tasked with evacuating hundreds of Ukrainian citizens living in Afghanistan.

The crack 10-member unit landed in Kabul for the first time on Aug. 15 to a scene of utter chaos: tens of thousands of desperate people trying to get into the tightly guarded airport.

The team also had a pair of side missions: to rescue a group of Ukrainian security contractors, as well as Fatema Hosseini, a freelance journalist who had worked for USA Today. Like other Afghan translators, she feared for her safety under renewed Taliban rule. The risks were even higher for Fatema, as a woman who had worked for Westerners and taken to dressing like them during the 20-year U.S. military presence in her country.

Fatema was put in contact with Col. Iryna Andrukh, a military psychologist and hostage negotiator who was added to the Kabul Team to deal with unforeseen circumstances that might require her skill set. Throughout the night of Aug. 19, 2021, they messaged back and forth.

“Last night I woke up several times having nightmares,” Fatema wrote. “I will die.”

“You will not die,” Iryna responded.

She told Fatema to get as close as she could to the East Gate of the airport, and then the HUR team would come out and get her.

After some tense moments as she pushed through the desperate crowds – and just after she had talked her way through a pair of Taliban checkpoints – Fatema received another, starker, text message from Iryna. Fatema now had to make her way instead to the North Gate of the facility. And the plane was leaving in 30 minutes. “Either you make it or you don’t.”

People were shouting, shoving, trampling. Someone shot a woman beside her. Fatema decided to return home and accept her fate.

Just then her phone rang. This time it was a male voice on the line. “Fatema, I bribed this Taliban to come out and take you. Where are you?”

At the assigned meeting point, Fatema shouted the name she had been given. “Ivan!” She could see safety – and a better life – just on the other side of the airport fence.

Ivan spotted her and sent Nazar into the crowd. He pulled her from peril and into the airport.

There is much more at the link.

I want to highlight and emphasize this part:

Gen. Budanov was one of the initial Unit 2245 members – as was Maks, a 41-year-old with deep brown eyes and a square jaw, whom Gen. Budanov selected to lead the initial reconnaissance mission into Kabul in the summer of 2021. He was a natural choice, having served in Afghanistan in 2009 and 2010 as a member of the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force. He had also fought as part of Unit 2245 in Donbas, preceding Russia’s full-scale invasion.

When NATO, especially the US which built and led ISAF, needed Ukraine’s help in the fight against al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan, Ukraine stood up! Ukrainians were wounded and killed in action in Afghanistan in support of US goals and NATO’s support of the US as a result of the Article 5 invocation in the wake of the 9-11 attacks. Even though Ukraine wasn’t bound by NATO’s collective defense agreement, they came to help us! But when Ukraine asks for a clear path to ascension to be delineated so they can join NATO once they defeat Russia, the President, who spoke so eloquently about Ukraine in his remarks at Normandy today, had this to say: (emphasis mine)

So what is the endgame though in Ukraine and what does peace look like there? 

Biden: Peace looks like making sure Russia never, never, never, never occupies Ukraine. That’s what peace looks like. And it doesn’t mean NATO, they are part of NATO, it means we have a relationship with them like we do with other countries, where we supply weapons so they can defend themselves in the future. But it is not, if you notice, I was the one when—and you guys did report it at TIME—the one that I was saying that I am not prepared to support the NATOization of Ukraine.

It should not, it is not—I spent a month in Ukraine when I was a Senator and Vice President. There was significant corruption. There was a circumstance that was really difficult. And so, the point is, though, that if we ever let Ukraine go down, mark my words: you’ll see Poland go, and you’ll see all those nations along the actual border of Russia, from the Balkans and Belarus, all those, they’re going to make their own accommodations.

I was there and had to try to keep a straight face and look the Soldiers of the 33rd Shavnabada Battalion in the eyes when the US betrayed Georgia and sacrificed it to Putin’s megalomania. I was there when they begged us to come and help them. That one was on George W. Bush and Dick Cheney. If Ukraine is not going to get into NATO once they defeat Russia, as the President stated clearly in his interview with Time Magazine, then this American betrayal is on Joseph Robinette Biden.

Tatarigami has posted a long assessment about how Europe’s largest war since the end of World War II came to be at EuroMaidan Press:

After the end of the Cold War, terms like atomic diplomacy and nuclear blackmailing seemed to become obsolete. Yet, it took less than two decades for them not only to resurface but also to re-enter mainstream discourse, raising questions about the real risks of nuclear escalation.

In 2005, Russian President Vladimir Putin lamented, “The collapse of the Soviet Union was the biggest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.” These words encapsulated Russia’s revisionist agenda, signaling growing ambitions to reestablish once-lost influence.

In less than a decade, Russia officially annexed territories of another independent state in Europe. These ambitions have continued to grow, now aiming to reshape the post-Cold War security order in Europe, challenging NATO’s current structure.

Given Russia’s diminished power compared to the Soviet Union and the economic, demographic, and military superiority of NATO countries, it seemed improbable for Russia to coerce the West or assert its will over it.

How did Russia manage not only to annex territories but also to emerge as a real threat to the security of the West?

To answer these questions, we must understand the evolving role of nuclear weapons in Russia’s strategy, the risks of escalation, and the principles that transform these weapons into tools for exerting influence and political leverage rather than for actual warfare.

Escalation management and Russia

Escalation management is a strategic concept that aims to prevent conflicts from escalating into more widespread and destructive confrontations, such as nuclear warfare.

By exploiting vulnerabilities in the West’s current political establishment’s approach to escalation management, Russia has influenced the quantity and quality of Western aid to Ukraine through a tactic known as reflexive control.

This tactic involves presenting specific information to an opponent to influence their decisions in favor of the initiator’s desired outcome.

In the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russian officials have timed nuclear drills or threats to coincide with critical Western decisions about aid to Ukraine, aiming to deter support for Ukraine.

Such tactics also played a significant role in 2014-2015, convincing European leaders like Angela Merkel to pursue peace resolutions in Ukraine on Russia’s terms. Fearing conventional or even nuclear escalation, these leaders adopted what they considered “responsible” politics.

Thanks to reflexive control, each successive step on the escalation ladder is perceived as more disadvantageous to the United States and Europe than to Russia. This allows Russia to retain the initiative in terms of timing and location of escalation, deterring the West from taking actions that Russia deems undesirable.

Unlike escalation dominance, where one side can decisively win, both Russia and the US are equally capable of destroying each other (mutually assured destruction, or MAD), ensuring no winner.

So where does Russia’s escalation advantage come from? It stems from Russia’s perceived readiness to escalate and use non-strategic or strategic nuclear weapons in response to actions it might deem as leading to its strategic defeat. This approach can be especially effective against risk-averse adversaries unwilling to escalate to preserve the status quo.

As a result, Russia perceives this situation as a window of opportunity that should be exploited until the response from the West outweighs the potential benefits of Russia’s actions.

In the case of Ukraine, Russia claims that the country is vital for its national security and part of its sphere of influence, justifying nuclear escalation in response to any interference.

The designation of entire countries as vital parts of a sphere of influence can be largely subjective and is often used as political leverage and justification for aggressive action. For example, Russia might argue that previous NATO expansions pose an existential threat, demanding that NATO’s borders and memberships revert to their pre-1999 stage.

However, such overt and assertive threats to the West on core issues like NATO’s existence are unlikely to yield any tangible results for Russia. Therefore, to manage escalation while achieving geopolitical goals, Russia employs what experts term “Salami slicing tactics” — tactics involving incremental, limited actions to expand influence while mitigating the risk of escalation.

In such a situation, Russia’s small territorial gains may initially appear insignificant compared to the risk of nuclear warfare. To better understand this dynamic, we need to examine the timeline of escalation.

Reflecting on the past decade of Russian aggression

n 2014, during the annexation of Crimea, Putin warned unnamed Western leaders that Russia was ready to set its nuclear forces to combat readiness, a fact he later admitted in a 2015 interview. After the successful occupation of Crimea and parts of Eastern Ukraine, Russia continued to deter the West from providing substantial aid to Ukraine by threatening to escalate the war further.

Besides official statements, Russian domestic and international channels like Russia Today, along with pundits and sensationalist journalists, continued to spread the nuclear threat narrative and the fear of nuclear escalation. Aggressive demands coupled with nuclear threats were presented as “reasonable negotiations,” branding any country that refused to respond to these subtle threats as unwilling to engage in diplomacy

Timeline of escalation: Russian aggression vs Western actions. Image by the author

These threats were backed by showcasing new strategic capabilities and an updated nuclear triad, including the Avangard, Kinzhal, Poseidon, and Sarmat systems. During the presentation of the Sarmat ICBM, Putin even played a mock video of a nuclear attack on Florida. This aggressive and irresponsible saber-rattling became more frequent and bold yet received little pushback.

Demands peaked on 17 December 2021, when Russia submitted documents requesting the rollback of NATO military force deployments in Central and Eastern Europe, the refraining from any further NATO enlargement, including Ukraine, and the limitation of troop and weapon deployments.

Russia knew these demands were unacceptable to the United States and other NATO members. This wasn’t done with an honest intent to establish a dialogue but rather to portray the West as unwilling to exercise diplomacy and negotiate.

Despite these de-escalatory actions, limited aid to Ukraine, and the normalization of relations between Russia and many Western countries, including the restoration of trade despite sanctions, Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022.

Just a few days later, on 27 February 2022, President Putin ordered Russian strategic deterrence forces to be placed on “high combat alert” to further deter the West from taking decisive actions.

Is Russia likely to use nuclear weapons?

In 2020, Russia officially released a document titled “Basic Principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence,” outlining scenarios for nuclear use.

Most scenarios presented in this document do not apply to the situation in Ukraine. For example, Russia considers the use of nuclear weapons in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation with conventional weapons when the state’s very existence is in jeopardy.

The notion that Ukraine could threaten the existence of Russia is highly unrealistic, given that Ukraine faces significant challenges in liberating its own occupied territories, let alone occupying a substantial part of Russia and its command and control centers in Moscow.

However, it would be naive to rely solely on published documents or doctrines, especially in a country where decisions are made by an autocratic leader and his close inner circle. Therefore, this situation should be analyzed from a cost-benefit perspective.

Before using tactical nuclear weapons, Russia must consider whether such an action will be beneficial and whether it will leave Russia in a better position.

From a battlefield perspective, the use of tactical nuclear weapons is unlikely to yield significant results. A potential strike on Ukrainian fortress towns like Kurakhove, Vuhledar, or Chasiv Yar might decimate multiple battalions or even a brigade, but it is unlikely to provide a strategic advantage. Strikes on training centers or airfields could result in hundreds of deaths, thousands of injuries, and the destruction of a few aircraft, but it would not be sufficient to change the course of the war.

Similar to Russia’s campaign of bombing civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, which did not result in Ukraine’s surrender, striking Ukraine with a nuclear weapon is unlikely to force submission—there are no guarantees of such an outcome.

Western countries would react extremely negatively to such an escalation, likely responding to Russia in more tangible ways, potentially even considering the use of conventional weaponry against Russian targets in Ukraine.

The risks of submitting to coercion are greater than those of a strong response

Almost every serious arms delivery or new weaponry to Ukraine has been met with threats of serious escalation, including subtle nuclear threats and warnings.

Whether it was HIMARS in 2022, tanks in 2023, or long-range ATACMs in 2024, the messaging remained the same. This has played a negative role for Ukraine, as many weapons remained unavailable in 2022 when Ukraine could maximize its gains against Russia’s undermanned and overextended units.

HIMARS arrived with range and geographic target limitations, and ATACMs were delivered to Ukraine to target Russian air bases with helicopters in the South only after Ukraine’s failed counter-offensive.

The problem is that by limiting Ukraine’s opportunity to significantly shift the balance during the first year of the war, the United States has found itself in a situation where it is forced to provide more potent weaponry every time Ukraine faces a dire situation, like in Kharkiv, instead of providing such weaponry and permission to engage targets before the situation deteriorates.

Such an approach has resulted in the prolongation and geographical expansion of the war. In 2022, the war was primarily between Russia, with limited support from Belarus, and Ukraine, supported by the West.

By 2024, the war had expanded to include Iran, North Korea, and partially China on Russia’s side, as Russia desperately sought to expand its industrial capacities to meet the demands of a long-term war of attrition.

Addressing the threat

The fundamental goal is to deter adversaries by showcasing resolve and preparedness to counter any escalation. Russia must grasp that the potential consequences of escalation would be unfavorable, thereby discouraging it from initiating such actions.

An overly cautious Western approach, seen as weakness and indecisiveness, is the greatest reason behind these escalations.

Effective measures could include issuing stern and specific warnings directly to Putin and his inner circle, both officially and unofficially. The Kremlin should not monopolize the public discourse surrounding nuclear use.

Nuclear threats must be countered with a reminder that Russia is not the sole nuclear-capable country. Security organizations like NATO must demonstrate readiness to react even in the face of nuclear threats instead of sending ambiguous signals which are interpreted as weakness.

Moreover, in response to escalations, the West should leverage its capacity to equip Ukraine with resources capable of significantly shifting the balance on the battlefield, such as relaxing restrictions on target selection.

The reason states typically avoid yielding to terrorist demands is that it incentivizes future incidents. Similarly, Russia is not actively seeking nuclear war, but if it perceives a lack of resolve from the West, it will continue pushing boundaries until it encounters firm resistance.

Consequently, Russia will keep escalating threats, forcing the West to make a difficult decision: either respond more harshly to Russian nuclear provocations higher up the escalation ladder to defend its vital interests later or take firmer actions now to prevent further escalation. This pattern has been demonstrated multiple times, with Moscow interpreting Western de-escalatory steps as weakness.

There is more at the link.

Russian occupied Crimea:

Sea drones on the hunt — Saturn tugboat at the bottom of the Black Sea.

On June 6, 2024, the special unit 9 of @DI_Ukraine successfully attacked the russian tugboat Project 498 (Saturn or Protey type) near the shores of the temporarily occupied Crimea. pic.twitter.com/s1pJ4dGjD6

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 6, 2024

/1. The Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine published a video of tonights naval kamikaze drones attack on Crimea.

The Russian tug of the project 498 “Saturn” or “Proteus” was reportedly destroyed.https://t.co/aMkkPY63aG pic.twitter.com/yyA8w8Dw5F

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 6, 2024

/3. Location of the port which was attacked by naval kamikaze drones tonight. The sea barrier at the entrance to the port could be barely visible on the satellite imagery as well. pic.twitter.com/CKQAR07GvY

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 6, 2024

Here’s the full text of the second tweet above:

/2. What is more interesting for me than the destruction of the tug in this attack is the passage of a naval kamizaze drone through the sea barrier at the entrance to the port.

I would even suggest that the primary objective of the attack could well be to test the capabilities of kamikaze drones in breaking through such barriers. As preparation for more complex and large-scale operations.

These two facts exist in the same universe:

1. Russia wants to have navy drills in the Caribbean “to project its naval power around the world”, according to U.S. officials.

2. Russia has managed to have lost a third part of its Black Sea Fleet (including the flagship) to…

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) June 6, 2024

These two facts exist in the same universe:

1. Russia wants to have navy drills in the Caribbean “to project its naval power around the world”, according to U.S. officials.

2. Russia has managed to have lost a third part of its Black Sea Fleet (including the flagship) to Ukraine, which in its turn has as many as 0 major warships.

Bucha:

The main street of Bucha just tonight, about 11 pm local time.

Yet another power cut in most of the city (but suddenly not at my place for some reason!)

Most places that are fully autonomous on diesel generators are now closed for the night, so many youngsters now hang out at… pic.twitter.com/0EaHjAOvUy

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) June 6, 2024

The main street of Bucha just tonight, about 11 pm local time.

Yet another power cut in most of the city (but suddenly not at my place for some reason!)

Most places that are fully autonomous on diesel generators are now closed for the night, so many youngsters now hang out at the UPG gas station that works 24/7 and serves very good food and drinks until midnight.

Wartime life in the age of energy technologies.

Kharkiv Oblast:

HIMARS strike on Russian construction site. Somewhere in Kharkiv region. https://t.co/jd8mYKZuuQ pic.twitter.com/I7Y8JE0mmX

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 6, 2024

Kreminna:

Nighttime liquidation of enemy infantry near Kreminna.

The occupiers continue to test the strength of the defense line of the 12th Azov Brigade.

To hinder the enemy’s movement, the Azov fighters effectively destroy manpower on the approach to the “gray zone”, both during the… pic.twitter.com/6PgrvIL6sN

— Azov Brigade (@azov_media) June 6, 2024

Bakhmut:

A hell of a lot of Russian turtle tanks/IFVs were engaged in recent Russian attack on the Bakhmut front. Video by the 28th Brigade of Ukraine.https://t.co/kpLedpuQhr https://t.co/lXXfbNmJ33 pic.twitter.com/s8rQm6N743

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 6, 2024

Urozhaine, Zaporizhzhia front:

58th Brigade of Ukraine repels Russian attack on Urozhaine (the one which is described in the post attached).https://t.co/8libbOyU0l https://t.co/T1ugzl21ez pic.twitter.com/VqbC8szuHM

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 6, 2024

Rostov on Don:

Looks like Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in Rostov-on-Don, one of southern Russia’s most important, had another “incident.” Must be those Ukrainian birds visiting again. pic.twitter.com/fl0pqqzuQO

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) June 6, 2024

/2. An installed anti drone mesh is visible on the oil refinery. pic.twitter.com/jn8eAsogN9

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 6, 2024

/4. Statistics on Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery from the official website. Very handy. pic.twitter.com/OVrL7w2lXN

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 6, 2024

Here’s the full text of the third tweet:

/3. Russians publish photos from the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery, which was attacked by drones. According to Russian media, after the strikes of the UAVs, two AVT installations caught fire.

Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery – is/was the only operating refinery in the Rostov region. There were two AVT units, each with a capacity of 2.5 million tons of oil per year, for a total of 5 million tons per year. If both were damaged it might mean that the unite oil refinery is disabled.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos, so here is some adjacent material:

Black dog pic.twitter.com/aY1Vg7p6ih

— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) May 24, 2024

Ukrainian drone operator about to cause some trouble for the Ruskies. And oh, happy Caturday. pic.twitter.com/QZ1G8xL0Hr

— Lorenzo The Cat (@LorenzoTheCat) June 1, 2024

Defenders of Ukraine pic.twitter.com/JdbNs2nKrq

— Giant Military Cats (@giantcat9) April 25, 2024

That last one may not be to scale.

Open thread!