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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Museums are not America’s attic for its racist shit.

They don’t have outfits that big. nor codpieces that small.

We’re watching the self-immolation of the leading world power on a level unprecedented in human history.

We do not need to pander to people who do not like what we stand for.

New McCarthy, same old McCarthyism.

Giving in to doom is how we fail to fight for ourselves & one another.

They want us to be overwhelmed and exhausted. Focus. Resist. Oppose.

Shallow, uninformed, and lacking identity

This must be what justice looks like, not vengeful, just peaceful exuberance.

You know it’s bad when the Project 2025 people have to create training videos on “How To Be Normal”.

With all due respect and assumptions of good faith, please fuck off into the sun.

No Kings: Americans standing in the way of bad history saying “Oh, Fuck No!”

This fight is for everything.

“Just close your eyes and kiss the girl and go where the tilt-a-whirl takes you.” ~OzarkHillbilly

It’s pointless to bring up problems that can only be solved with a time machine.

Pessimism assures that nothing of any importance will change.

Reality always gets a vote in the end.

You don’t get to peddle hatred on saturday and offer condolences on sunday.

Hey hey, RFK, how many kids did you kill today?

Republicans want to make it harder to vote and easier for them to cheat.

All hail the time of the bunny!

Some judge needs to shut this circus down soon.

Good lord, these people are nuts.

Republicans do not pay their debts.

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Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

Open Threads

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War for Ukraine Day 781: A Brief(ish) Sunday Night Update

by Adam L Silverman|  April 14, 20247:45 pm| 63 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Iran, Israel, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Silverman on Security, United Kingdom, War, War in Ukraine

Painting by NEIVANMADE. It has a white background an in the center are Soldiers in green doing air defense by firing at incoming Russian missiles in the upper right. The missiles are red and yellow. In the upper left, written in green, is the text: "SAVE THE BRAVEST PEOPLE IN THE WORLD!" Below the Soldiers, also written in green, is "SUPPORT FOR KHARKIV"

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

I chose not to do an update on Israel and Iran because there’s not much to say. The US assembled a coalition with the British, French, Jordanians, and Saudis to either take down Iranian drones and missiles that were overflying their airspaces (the Jordanians and Saudis) or to just shoot them down en route regardless of whose air space they were in (the US, Britain, and France). There was only one Israeli casualty – a 7 year old Bedouin girl was injured and is being treated in an Israel hospital – and minimal damage to the bases in the Golan and the Negev. President Biden apparently got Bibi to not immediately retaliate, thereby lowering the temperature. At the same time he laid it on thick telling Bibi that this was a huge victory for Israel, demonstrated how Israel can defend itself, and that Bibi should take the win. The reality is that had the US and the coalition the Biden administration had not quickly put together interceded, we have no idea whether Israel’s air defense and missile defense would have been effective enough. Because of the intervention of the US led coalition, we don’t really know how effective the David’s Arrow and David’s sling missile defense systems are.

Ukraine condemns Iran’s attack on Israel using “Shahed” drones and missiles. We in Ukraine know very well the horror of similar attacks by Russia, which uses the same “Shahed” drones and Russian missiles, the same tactics of mass air strikes.

Every effort must be made to prevent…

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) April 14, 2024

Ukraine condemns Iran’s attack on Israel using “Shahed” drones and missiles. We in Ukraine know very well the horror of similar attacks by Russia, which uses the same “Shahed” drones and Russian missiles, the same tactics of mass air strikes.

Every effort must be made to prevent a further escalation in the Middle East. Iran’s actions threaten the entire region and the world, just as Russia’s actions threaten a larger conflict, and the obvious collaboration between the two regimes in spreading terror must face a resolute and united response from the world.

The sound of “Shahed” drones, a tool of terror, is the same in the skies over the Middle East and Europe. This sound must serve as a wake-up call to the free world, demonstrating that only our unity and resoluteness can save lives and prevent the spread of terror worldwide.

The world cannot wait for discussions to go on. Words do not stop drones and do not intercept missiles. Only tangible assistance does. The assistance we are anticipating. We must strengthen security and resolutely counter all those who want to make terror a new normal.

It is critical that the United States Congress make the necessary decisions to strengthen America’s allies at this critical time.

 

Difference is that in Ukraine it sometimes happens on a daily basis https://t.co/EyRpJNOd0H

— Anne Applebaum (@anneapplebaum) April 14, 2024

We do know that modern fighter jets are a necessary component of anti-drone and anti-missile defense. While they already knew this, the Ukrainians have again taken note of this reality. And that at the end of the day, despite all the rhetoric, they are on their own. No one is going to launch fighters to intercept inbound drones and missiles targeting Ukrainian civilians and civilian infrastructure. And because the Biden administration dithered, hemmed, hawed, and let Putin have a say in their deliberations, the Ukrainians are still month’s away from getting F-16s. Israel does something strategically stupid and it gets all the help it needs. Ukraine fights for its life and gets fuck all.

As of right now, 7:09 PM EDT, the only air raid alerts are the ones over Russian occupied Luhansk and Crimea.

While the US was leading a coalition to defend Israel, the Russians once again bombarded Kharkiv:

Russian troops struck a private house in Kharkiv Oblast with an air bomb, resulting in the deaths of a couple living there. A 61-year-old woman and a 68-year-old man were killed, buried beneath the rubble of their home. pic.twitter.com/CCpdhnvlK0

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) April 14, 2024

Dnipro was also targeted again today. Unfortunately I can’t embed the tweet with video from Iulia Mendel because it is one of the ones that won’t embed because Musk has manipulated the code to target certain types of posts about Ukraine.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

Assistance to Ukraine is Still Limited, and Russia Still Has Access to Missile Components – Address by the President

14 April 2024 – 20:39

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

This day, just as every day of this war, began with the results of our defenders of the sky. Last night, they managed to shoot down 10 “Shahed” drones out of 10 used by the Russians. I am grateful to all our warriors of the mobile firing groups and all other defenders of the sky. In total, Russian terrorists have already used almost 130 “Shahed” drones against Ukraine this week. Fortunately, we managed to shoot down most of them. They also used more than 80 Russian missiles and almost 700 guided aerial bombs. Unfortunately, it is much more difficult to destroy them. And these are the numbers for this one week only.

Today missiles and drones were used again. Dnipro and Nikopol, Pokrovsk and other cities in the Donetsk region, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Sumy regions. There are casualties and, unfortunately, fatalities. My condolences to all those who have lost their loved ones.

Russia uses every day, week and month to inflict significant damage. Unfortunately, assistance to Ukraine is still limited, and the Russian state still has access to critical components needed to produce missiles and drones. Each missile targeting Ukraine contains at least dozens of components – electronics, chips – supplied by companies from other countries and imported through the territory of Russia’s neighbors. The “Shahed” drones also contain components produced in the free world. All of this must and can be stopped: the connivance at terror, the ability of terrorists to seek accomplices around the world, and all forms of Russian terror itself.

Modern aviation proves its effectiveness, modern air defense systems are capable of protecting lives – this was demonstrated in the Middle East when aviation and air defense shot down Iranian missiles and “Shahed” drones aimed at Israel. The whole world sees what real defense is. It sees that it is feasible. And the whole world saw that Israel was not alone in this defense – the threat in the sky was also being eliminated by its allies. And when Ukraine tells its allies that unity provides the best defense, they are already well aware of its effectiveness. They are aware of it and ensure it. And when Ukraine says that its allies should not turn a blind eye to Russian missiles and drones, it means action is needed – a bold one.

It is not rhetoric that protects the sky, it is not opinions that curb the production of missiles and drones for terror. And the fact that sanctions against Russia are still being circumvented, and that we in Ukraine have been waiting for months for a vital support package – that we are still waiting for a vote in Congress – shows that the terrorists’ confidence has been on the rise for months as well. We cannot waste any more time.

Real protection of life must be ensured wherever there is a terrorist threat to it. Everything must be done to prevent evil and wars from spreading across the world – in Europe, the Middle East, or anywhere else. I thank everyone who understands this. Everyone who can protect life must do so. Everyone who can restrict the potential of terror must do so. Ukraine, the Middle East, and all other parts of the world equally deserve a just and lasting peace.

And one more thing. The frontline. The situation at the front in such a fierce war is always tough. But these days – especially in the Donetsk sector – it is aggravating. I am grateful to every brigade, every soldier and commander who are doing everything to defend our positions and who are destroying the occupier. This week, I am especially grateful to the 58th separate motorized infantry brigade, the 68th separate jaeger brigade, and the 148th separate artillery brigade of the Ukrainian Air Assault Forces – its warriors are unfailingly effective. And this week was the 148th brigade’s day. My congratulations to you guys, thank you! I am also thankful to the 55th Zaporizhzhia Sich separate artillery brigade. Well done! It is also worth mentioning the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine – the Kraken and Artan units and the 9th Department of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine. I am proud of you!

Glory to all who contribute to Ukraine’s defense against Russian terror! Glory to everyone who makes our country stronger. I thank everyone in the world who helps!

Glory to Ukraine!

Here is an interview with Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry Dmytro Kuleba. I have the closed captioning on and set to English:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x4k1nJ86tdM

The price:

Yana Stepanenko running the Boston marathon!

Unbreakable spirit! Glory to Yana! https://t.co/iGEToFtHdu pic.twitter.com/rSyS7dlG0I

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) April 14, 2024

Here’s more on how the US is being perceived in Ukraine:

To the hundreds of bots or trolls saying Ukraine is a pawn in US game:

Whatever the level of disappointment and abandonment we may feel about our partners, this will never distort the sole party to blame for the war and Ukraine’s suffering: Russia and its people.

So fuck off.

— Stas Olenchenko 🇺🇦 (@StasOlenchenko) April 14, 2024

3. Nobody pushed Ukrainians to resist. It was Ukraine’s resistance that pushed the West to review their Russia policies and support us.
4. The only way forward is to keep supporting Ukraine’s Armed Forces, build stronger bonds and keep working to victory.
5. Russia will fall.

— Stas Olenchenko 🇺🇦 (@StasOlenchenko) April 14, 2024

To wit👇.

The reality is that while Ukraine is less of an ally than Israel, it is Israel that causes greater inconvenience.

The strategic stakes are great in Israel/Palestine, but they’re greater in Ukraine. Failing to contain Russia will make Iran seem like child’s play. https://t.co/Ig0wz7khhp

— Sam Greene (@samagreene) April 14, 2024

Expect Russia to ramp up attacks in Ukraine in order to drive home the point.

The question is whether Washington will persist in compartmentalizing these conflicts, or whether it will recognize its strategic priorities, rein in Bibi, and redouble its resolve in Ukraine.

— Sam Greene (@samagreene) April 14, 2024

Dipshit, ineffective, self promoting Democratic campaign operatives need to shut the fuck up.

We see the blockade by Johnson/MAGA.

However, please understand that America’s partisanship issues won’t matter much if Ukraine gets abandoned & exterminated by Russia.

If the US is a functional democracy and a leader of the free world, it has to find workarounds & solutions.

— Stas Olenchenko 🇺🇦 (@StasOlenchenko) April 14, 2024

The interception of Iranian missiles and drones by American and British air defense systems over Israel is very showing.

On one side, Russia has been attacking Ukraine for two years using various means, ranging from cruise missiles to gliding bombs and drones, including those…

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) April 14, 2024

The interception of Iranian missiles and drones by American and British air defense systems over Israel is very showing.

On one side, Russia has been attacking Ukraine for two years using various means, ranging from cruise missiles to gliding bombs and drones, including those supplied by Iran. Despite this, Ukraine stands alone in defending itself against these deadly assaults, with neighboring NATO countries even tolerating Russian provocations with missiles flying into NATO airspace, and no one takes them out.

Meanwhile, the close alliance between Russia and Iran, the “new Axis,” is evident. Yet, targeted strikes against Iran, including its top military figures, are carried out regularly and effectively.

The disparity between Iran and Russia is not vast, except for one crucial aspect: Russia possesses huge nuclear arsenals and frequently employs them in nuclear blackmail. While the West states how it is hesitant to engage in direct conflict with Russia to avoid direct confrontation, it seems more willing to confront Iran.

Concerningly, the West is trembling before Russian nuclear blackmail and will continue being intimidated. And of course, this does not mean that the Americans and the British should have avoided helping Israel (which is not in NATO, like Ukraine), that’s not the point.

No, the issue is that Ukraine’s so-called allies have to be begged to provide defence to protect the vital energy infrastructure, while to others, the aid is handed out without any hesitation.

Speaking of the Starlink Snowflake, the Russian neo-NAZIs are very fond of him:

I mean, it’s just a violent neo-Nazi group known for committing brutal atrocities against Ukrainians and openly propagating racial hatred and Russian white supremacy – not a big deal.

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) April 14, 2024

Chasiv Yar:

Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi says Russia set a goal of capturing Chasiv Yar by 9 May ("Victory Day" in Russia), in line with the future targets of reaching Kramatorks agglomeration (where Ukrainian Eastern HQ is located).

Full message:

"I worked in another, very important and… pic.twitter.com/kendjcYQks

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) April 14, 2024

Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi says Russia set a goal of capturing Chasiv Yar by 9 May (“Victory Day” in Russia), in line with the future targets of reaching Kramatorks agglomeration (where Ukrainian Eastern HQ is located).

Full message:

“I worked in another, very important and dangerous direction.

The enemy is also concentrating efforts to break through our defenses west of Bakhmut, to reach the Siverskyi Donets – Donbas canal, capture the settlement of Chasiv Yar, and create conditions for further advance to the Kramatorsk agglomeration.

The implementation of the enemy’s plans is hindered by the heroic defense of our brigades, which literally dug into the ground, holding back the enemy’s daily attacks. Using numerical superiority and various motivational factors, including shootings [of their own], separate groups of enemy infantry reached the “Noviy” district, but were destroyed by FPV-kamikaze strikes and artillery fire.

At the same time, the threat remains relevant, taking into account the fact that the higher Russian military leadership has set the task for its troops to capture Chasiv Yar by May 9.

In order to respond adequately to the actions of the enemy and strengthen the defense of our troops in this direction, measures were taken to significantly strengthen the brigades with ammunition, drones, and EW devices.

The main conclusion from the two-day work at the front is the need to improve the quality of training, including the moral and psychological component, to increase the number of high-tech unmanned systems of various purposes with trained operators, to improve the quality of conducting asymmetric operations in order to reduce the combat potential of the enemy.

We continue to carry out organisational activities with an emphasis on increasing the efficiency of management, eliminating duplication, directing freed resources to support combat units and units.

The main task of these measures is to increase the fighting capacity of our troops, save the lives of our soldiers, disrupt the enemy’s plans, and ensure the preparation of reserves.

The fight continues!
Glory to Ukraine!”

https://t.me/osirskiy/652

Novomykhailivka:

Two russian BTR-82 APCs tried to attack Ukrainian positions near Novomykhailivka, but something went wrong.

📹: 79th Air Assault Brigade pic.twitter.com/WVuBFDFP7h

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 14, 2024

Antonivka Village:

russian Buk air defense system explode like a firework near the Antonivka village.

📹: Khortytsia operational-strategic group pic.twitter.com/4OzkiiMmRE

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 14, 2024

 

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

No new Patron tweets tonight and I’m saving the video for tomorrow. So here’s some adjacent material:

Please watch this story of Rex the dog.

His home was ruined by Russian shelling, and Rex was trapped inside by the debris. Rex's owner was injured, his daughter took him to the hospital (the ambulance couldn't get there because the shelling was that intense).

Volunteers rescued… pic.twitter.com/gT0Psage8v

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) April 14, 2024

Please watch this story of Rex the dog.

His home was ruined by Russian shelling, and Rex was trapped inside by the debris. Rex’s owner was injured, his daughter took him to the hospital (the ambulance couldn’t get there because the shelling was that intense).

Volunteers rescued Rex and brought him to Kharkiv.

Rex’s owners kept looking for him, and finally, they were reunited.

This is what we're fighting for. pic.twitter.com/71ZfmYq9BK

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) April 14, 2024

War for Ukraine Day 781: A Brief(ish) Sunday Night UpdatePost + Comments (63)

Medium Cool – Old Time Music Thread

by WaterGirl|  April 14, 20247:00 pm| 113 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Medium Cool is a weekly series related to popular culture, mostly film, TV, and books, with some music and games thrown in.  We hope it’s a welcome break from the anger, hate, and idiocy we see almost daily from the other side in the political sphere.

Arguments welcomed, opinions respected, fools un-suffered.  We’re here every Sunday at 7 pm.

Little Boots was mentioned in the Hey Lurkers! thread, and it reminded me of how much I miss the music threads we used to have.  So let’s have one tonight!

You pedants can tell me how to best punctuate the thread title so it’s clear that I am asking for a music thread like we used to have – and not asking for an old-time music thread like polkas or Sinatra or Elvis or whatever.  Though all of those are welcome!

I thought about titling the post Classic Music Thread, but then I figured you’d think I was looking for classical music.  Titles are complicated!

I’ll add a YouTube video up top for one of the first 5 songs that is mentioned in the comments.

Medium Cool – Old Time Music ThreadPost + Comments (113)

Four Directions AZ and NV Matches at 4x – an Extra Angel (6x) for the Next $500 in Matching Donations

by WaterGirl|  April 14, 20245:09 pm| 38 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Update at 6:15 pm:

We are back to 4x matching now, with the external match and an angel for each state.

*****

Opportunity knocks!

We have a new Balloon Juice Angel who is willing to add his angel match of $500 so we can complete BOTH of the current angel matches. Thank goodness for impatient people. :-)

So anything you donate up to $50 will turn into 6x the amount you donate.

$50 -> $300  / $35 -> $210  /  $25 -> $150  /  $10 -> 60  /  $5 -> $30

And everything in between!

To complete our current matches, we need $150 donated to AZ and $275 to NV.  The remaining $75 can go to either one.

To count toward the match, let us know about your donation in the comments, or you can drop me an email message if you prefer.  Let me know which state or state in the comments.

ARIZONA


Donate

NEVADA


Donate

Let’s do this!

Four Directions AZ and NV Matches at 4x – <s>an Extra Angel (6x) for the Next $500 in Matching Donations</s>Post + Comments (38)

Accidentally Like a Raver

by @heymistermix.com|  April 14, 20242:25 pm| 102 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Accidentally Like a Raver

I’ve been writing about my trip to rural America to see the eclipse.   We did see it, by driving at the last minute to a town on the edge of totality, and barely avoiding clouds.  (As you can see, the rightmost picture is almost totally obscured by clouds.)

I’ve been to other eclipses, most recently the annular eclipse on October 14, 2023, and the fun of it for me is to see it with a crowd.  With that in mind, my wife and I booked four days at the Texas Eclipse festival.  It was basically a rave, which we booked in near-total ignorance of what that meant.  It turns out that some promoters took over a 1,300 acre ranch near Burnet, Texas and converted it to a festival grounds.  That conversion involved bulldozing out a number of roads, RV pads, tent sites and parking areas.  They sold almost every ticket, and crowd estimates were around 35,000.

Because it was windy, and because most of the site had been scraped out of the red dirt of the countryside, there was a lot of dust.  The festival grounds were huge, so most of us had a pretty long walk from our campsite to the main festival area — from our campsite, two round trips plus some walking around at the site was recorded by our smart watches 10 miles of walking each.  As far as I’m concerned, the weather from Friday through Sunday was pretty good, daytime highs in the 70’s and low 80’s, and overnight lows in the mid 50’s to low 60’s.  The shows were really well done and near-constant.  I am not a fan of techno/EDM, but there were some presentations from space scientists as well as a couple of bands that were more like jam bands.

Even though I thought that the promoters did about as well as they could have given the circumstances, there was a huge amount of complaining on social media.  These complaints took two forms.  First, for festival goers, there was a bunch of bitching about getting into the venue, the parking process, and the lack of some amenities.  Our experience was that the first day of parking was a disorganized mess, and it took about 3 hours from the gate until we were in our campsite, but after we were settled we found that the portable toilets were cleaned out more-or-less regularly, and that the promised clean water was provided in a number of stations in the campgrounds and in the festival grounds.  Some people also complained that their favorite artist didn’t perform, but there were something like 500 acts booked, and the entertainment was constant.  The second form of complaints came from area residents, who didn’t like the idea of 35,000 people descending on their rural county.  Some of the complaints were pretty nasty, calling the ravers “human garbage” and so forth.

On the day of the eclipse, thunderstorm warnings caused the promoters to cancel the rest of the festival and encourage everyone to get out.  I didn’t have to be told twice: within a half hour of getting the notice, we were on a Texas road heading for the edge of totality, where the weather looked the best.   There were no traffic jams, and we found a place to watch with a few other people in a commercial parking lot in Brady.  People were upset about the cancellation, but I think the promoters did the right thing, and they’re promising some kind of refund. They’ve also pointed out that there were tornado watches and lightning strikes on the festival grounds on Tuesday, which was the planned day for everyone to vacate the festival grounds.

So, if you’ve read this far, I do have a point to make:  the “human garbage” comments by people claiming to be residents of the area were, to me, all too predictable.  There’s just so little tolerance of difference by a lot of these rural folks who are living on a diet of right-wing media.  My experience of this festival was that the people there were some of the kindest, friendliest and peaceful folks I’ve ever met.  Yeah, they smoke pot and take shrooms, and there were a lot of weird costumes (and thong bikinis and pasties worn by the women), but this was mostly just dress up for adults.  I didn’t see a single fight or even a cross word exchanged, and all of the ravers (as distinct from the accidental spectators like me) seemed to really love the music.

Texas Eclipse Festival

In short, I disliked the music and liked the people.  It’s something I’d never do again, but it was an experience worth having.  But I came to this experience without feeling the need to judge or belittle the young people who clearly put a lot of time and effort to get here, and then to dress up.  When your worldview requires you to cast out anyone who looks or acts different, any experience like this is just an excuse to hate “the other”.  And that’s both boring and sad.

Accidentally Like a RaverPost + Comments (102)

Hey Lurkers!

by WaterGirl|  April 14, 202412:00 pm| 126 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

looking in a large storefront window with reflections in the glass and a sign that says “Come in, We’re Open"

It’s way past time for another thread for all the lurkers out there.  I don’t think we’ve had one for months!

You guys may already know this, but when you post your first comment, it goes into moderation, and sometimes it takes a while for one of us to see it and free your comment so it shows up for everyone.  Once it’s released from moderation, it goes into the comments with the time-stamp for when you first submitted it, so then most people probably never see it.  So it’s not surprising that first comments often don’t get replied to.

So here’s a special open thread where we can keep a particular eye out for first comments that go into moderation.

A few of you who poked your heads up on previous lurker threads have turned into commenters, but don’t let that scare the rest of you away!

I think it’s especially awesome to see lurkers joining in on the Ukraine raffles, meetups, Balloon Juice zooms, fundraising, and even Balloon Juice angels.  We don’t know your names, but you guys rock.

In any case, it’s lurker appreciation day here on Balloon Juice!  Welcome, all.

Totally open thread.

Hey Lurkers!Post + Comments (126)

Things We Wish the Media Would Cover

by WaterGirl|  April 14, 202410:45 am| 152 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Politics

I had a thought as I was reading the morning thread.

What if we make a list of stories the mainstream media should be covering?

For instance, I really want to cover Project 2025, but I have not found the time yet to get started.  Every week I move Project 2025 to the next week on my calendar.  If others are interested and concerned, we could do a whole series on the key parts of Project 2025.  Many hands make light work – chime in if you are horrified by what’s in the plan and you’d be willing to do some research and cover a particular chunk in a guest post.

Balloon Juice isn’t a big wave like the “we love Hiter, take 2” NYT, but we’re not salt in the ocean, either.

Open thread.

Things We Wish the Media Would CoverPost + Comments (152)

War for Ukraine Day 780: The World Burns

by Adam L Silverman|  April 13, 20247:19 pm| 83 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Iran, Israel, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

As I start tonight’s post, 6:17 PM EDT, only Kharkiv is under air raid alert and it has been under attack for the past two hours.

And Israel, Israel is under air raid alert too.

I’m going to keep the focus tonight on Ukraine, because, while Iran is not blameless in its own and its proxies actions against Israel, quite frankly, the Israelis, and specifically Bibi, have done this to themselves with their attack on the Quds Force commander in Damascus. I don’t want anyone else in Israel, the West Bank, or Gaza to get hurt, and there is a real risk of that when debris comes down as Iran has launched several hundred drones and an unknown number of cruise missiles. These are expected to target Israeli military facilities in the Golan and Negev in the early morning hours, not Israeli civilians and civilian infrastructure. This is the same aerial bombardment strategy of using drones to overwhelm air defense so the missiles can get through that we are used to seeing the Russians use against the Ukrainians.

We are where we are because, as Avraham Shalom, the head of the Shin Bet in the early to mid 80s, stated in regard to Israeli leadership in The Gatekeepers documentary: ayn strategik, raq taktik. No strategy, only tactics. I will, however, start with a couple of items pertaining to what is going on between Israel and Iran.

First, a more recent former head of Shin Bet:

https://twitter.com/DanArbell/status/1779197825940701576

And two assessments from Eran Etzion, the former deputy director of Israel’s equivalent to the US National Security Council.

https://twitter.com/SinaToossi/status/1779129515475665209

⭕️Crucial points from Eran Etzion, former deputy head of the National Security Council in the Israeli Prime Minister’s office:

🛑The elimination of the Iranian general in Damascus was one of two things – either severe strategic negligence that needs to be investigated, or a deliberate attempt to draw Iran into the conflict, in absolute contradiction to the demands of the USA & its interests. Anyone involved in this decision needs to provide explanations.

🛑Israel is deep in the most severe crisis in its history, with broken national decision-making mechanisms, led by a man who has lost his judgment and acts based on foreign considerations, & without control and oversight mechanisms over the executive authority.

🛑In my cautious estimate, what is actually happening is coordination between the USA and Iran and containment of the Iranian response. If the coordination succeeds, the USA will prevent an Israeli response. And if the coordination fails, the USA will be in a difficult dilemma.
_

https://twitter.com/SinaToossi/status/1779262565077405699

Eran Etzion, former deputy head of the National Security Council in the Israeli Prime Minister’s office:

“At this stage, it is too early to assess what exactly Iran is trying to achieve with its massive and unprecedented retaliatory operation against Israel.

However, it seems that Iran does not intend to enter into a full-scale war. This is also clearly evident from the wording of the American response. Both countries are trying to contain the incident. Arab states are also walking a tightrope. They will intercept Iranian armaments that enter their territory and will not approve the passage of Israeli aircraft.

Tomorrow morning, when we will probably be after the Iranian attack, a damage assessment will be conducted. As long as the damages are limited (and we are not entering a more precise resolution at the moment), the USA will likely demand Israel not to respond, or to respond in a very limited way.

And so it is right that Israel should act. The main reason is the fact that Israel does not have a functioning government, led by a person who is unfit, and that the top ranks of the IDF are tainted by the terrible failure of 10/7.

This government must not drag Israel into a regional war, and we are already a step from there. In hopes that the event can be closed quickly, we must return to the negotiating table with Hamas, quickly agree on a hostage deal in exchange for a ceasefire, and go to snap elections.

Only a competent government, with new military leadership, will be worthy of the trust of the citizens of Israel, and will be able to start planning and implementing a comprehensive strategy against regional threats.

This will be done in full and close coordination with the USA, and with the relevant regional countries.”

Iran’s official statement:

https://twitter.com/Iran_UN/status/1779269993043022053

Bibi is hold up in a built to spec nuclear bunker under the home of an Israeli-American billionaire in Jerusalem where he and his wife Sara have been hiding from the protestors every night.

https://twitter.com/NTarnopolsky/status/1779205175745429878

Says it all really.

Bibi will, of course, do the stupidest thing possible in response because he needs to expand his war. The war against Hamas in Gaza is a failure. Israel has not achieved a single one of its strategic objectives because it never actually developed a theater campaign plan to do so. Just a tactical response. On the 8th of October 2023, Israel’s war cabinet voted to go to war with Hezbullah in Lebanon. President Biden put a stop to that, though Israel has been trading missile strikes both with Hezbullah in Lebanon and with other Iranian proxies in Syria. Those tit for tat strikes have led Israelis living in the north to flee. At the same time the extremist ultra-nationalist and ultra-devout settlers in the West Bank are fighting their own low intensity war against the Palestinians there. They are being egged on by convicted terrorist and Minister of National Security ben-Gvir and Minister of the Treasury Smotrich. Bibi needs a wider regional war even though he can’t even win the ones he’s currently waging.

Again, I DO NOT want to see any innocent Israelis, Palestinians in Gaza or the West Bank, or even Iranians who live under their theocratic tyrants, injured as a result of this strategic stupidity. However, as long as Bibi and his extremist coalition are in charge, Israel needs to be treated by the US as a hostile foreign power. It won’t be, but it should be.

Iran’s retaliatory strike on Israel will also negatively affect Ukraine:

https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1779249781048516939

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. It is a bit of good news. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

Germany Will Provide Us With Another Patriot System, And We Are Working on an Additional IRIS-T System — Address of the President of Ukraine

13 April 2024 – 20:47

I wish you good health, dear Ukrainians!

Today we have a very good result of our international work: Germany will provide us with an additional Patriot system — Chancellor Scholz and I agreed on this today. We are also working with Germany on an additional IRIS-T system, which is also a strong air defence system, and on missiles for our existing air defence systems. Germany’s leadership is truly felt, and thanks to this leadership, we will be able to save thousands of lives and give Ukraine more protection from Russian terror.

Of course, today we also talked with the Chancellor about our joint international events — we are preparing for the Ukraine Recovery Conference, which will soon be held in Germany. And together we will do everything to make the Global Peace Summit – the first, inaugural summit to be held in June – a real success. This also requires the leadership of partners, and I am grateful to everyone who helps. Olaf, Mr. Chancellor, thank you again for the air defence!

We will continue to work with all partners who can also help. This week alone, I have already had conversations and meetings with the presidents of Lithuania, the Czech Republic, Romania, Poland, Hungary, Switzerland, and Latvia. A new bilateral security agreement was signed with Latvia. I also spoke with the prime ministers of the Netherlands, Greece, Portugal, and Ireland. Today I had a conversation with the Chancellor of Germany. We will do everything to ensure the results in the coming weeks as well. In every conversation, at every meeting, air defence and the frontline are the main subjects. We are doing everything to have more capabilities for our Defence Forces and the defence-industrial complex.

Each week also brings new contracts for joint production of weapons. We are also working to finance more of our production right here in Ukraine. Ukraine’s potential to produce weapons, in particular, FPVs, is quite high. And we agree with our partners on joint steps to finance this work for the sake of our common strength — the whole of Europe, and all those who are threatened by Russian terror.

Today it is important to honour all our people who work for the sake of Ukrainian strength. This day is a professional holiday for the Ukrainian defence industry. Today I granted state awards to people who are actively developing this industry of ours. Most of them cannot be talked about openly now, and the reasons are clear. But this does not diminish our gratitude to them.

I am proud of every enterprise that produces weapons for Ukraine. We are all rightly proud of every result of Ukrainian weapons — our drones, which can reach more and more distant targets — and we are proud of the results of our missiles. All the production of shells and artillery is fundamentally important for Ukraine. Some production facilities that we haven’t had since independence are already yielding results. And despite all the difficulties, five hundred companies are currently operating in our defence industry, most of them are private initiatives. Ukrainian character, our entrepreneurs show themselves from the best side. I am grateful to everyone. I am grateful to all of our 300,000 people who create Ukrainian weapons! Thanks to everyone who helps!

Today, as always, I was also in touch with the military officials, with the Minister of Defence. The situation at the frontline, in some directions, is quite difficult. And everyone who is now showing their resilience, everyone who defends our positions is doing a tremendous job. I am grateful to every soldier and commander!

We are working with partners, particularly in the United States, to strengthen our actions. Glory to everyone who prevents Russian terrorists from achieving their goals. Glory to all who really protect life.

Glory to Ukraine!

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1779227308949209447

+1 Patriot air defense system to Ukraine from Germany, as well as additional air defense missiles for existing systems.
We are grateful to our German partners for an important decision to strengthen Ukraine’s air defense.
Modern air defense systems in Ukraine=saved lives of Ukrainians.
🇺🇦🤝🇩🇪
@BMVg_Bundeswehr

https://twitter.com/OlenaHalushka/status/1779105250726551620

The reason:

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1779233622031057215

This is cool:

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1779207931461783788

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1779066491544965613

General Syrskyi’s update on the eastern front: The situation on the Eastern Front has significantly worsened in recent days. This is primarily due to the significant intensification of the enemy’s offensive actions after the presidential elections in the Russian Federation.

The enemy is actively attacking our positions in the Lyman, Bakhmut directions with assault groups with the support of armored vehicles. In the Pokrovsk direction, he is trying to break through our defenses using dozens of tanks and BMPs.

This is facilitated by warm, dry weather, which has made most of the open areas of the terrain accessible to tanks. Despite significant losses, the enemy is increasing its efforts by using new units on armored vehicles, due to which he periodically achieves tactical success.

Therefore, the first day of my work in the area of the operation is dedicated to this direction and to taking all the necessary measures to stabilize the situation, increase the effectiveness of our troops’ actions, and inflict maximum losses on enemy units.

Based on conclusions regarding the nature of the enemy’s actions, decisions were made aimed at strengthening the most problematic areas of the defense by means of EW and air defense. Also, stocks of drones of all types, anti-tank missiles were replenished, additional reserves of forces and means were moved.

The question of achieving technical superiority over the enemy in high-tech weapons arose again.
Only this will give us the opportunity to defeat the larger enemy and create conditions for overtaking the strategic initiative.
The second serious problem is to improve the quality of training of military personnel, primarily infantry units, so that they can make maximum use of all the capabilities of military equipment and Western weapons.

First of all, the solution of this task depends on the command of the Ground Forces, which has returned in full from the area of hostilities.

The results of my work will be taken into account in the training plans of the troops and governing bodies.

Of course, I honored the best warriors with awards and valuable gifts.
In personal communication with our servicemen, they discussed the current situation, as well as ways to solve all problematic issues. We are aware of the real scale and degree of threat from the enemy and are ready to take adequate and effective actions.

https://t.me/osirskiy/650

 

The Financial Times has more details:

Ukraine’s top commander warned that his outmanned and outgunned army is struggling to halt a multipronged and intensifying Russian offensive, as Kyiv pleads with western partners for more air defences and a critical military aid package remains stalled in the US Congress.

“The situation on the eastern front has significantly worsened in recent days,” Ukrainian commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrsky wrote on Telegram during a visit to the eastern Donetsk region on Saturday.

He said a “significant intensification of the enemy’s offensive actions” along the 1,000km southeastern frontline was a direct result of Russian President Vladimir Putin becoming emboldened following his recent re-election.

Ukrainian and western officials have told the Financial Times that Russia may be gearing up for a large-scale attack in late spring or summer in hopes of capturing more of the regions of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia. The Kremlin partly occupies these areas, which Putin illegally claimed to have annexed in September 2022.

Officials in Kyiv are also concerned that Moscow might be planning an assault on Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city in the north-east. It is mobilising hundreds of thousands of forces and pummelling the city with rockets in preparation.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy this week warned of his country’s diminishing air defence capabilities after massive Russian missile and drones strikes hit Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

Ukrainian officials have asked western partners for more Patriot and SAMP/T air defence systems and munitions but were rebuffed.

“The enemy is actively attacking our positions in the Lyman [and] Bakhmut directions with assault groups and the support of armoured vehicles,” Syrsky said, referring to strategically important areas of eastern Ukraine. “In the Pokrovsk direction, it is trying to break through our defences using dozens of tanks and [infantry fighting vehicles].”

Syrsky said the “warm, dry weather, which has made most of the open areas of the terrain accessible to tanks” has aided Russia’s advance.

Russia’s main effort is focused around the mining city of Chasiv Yar, which sits atop a hill just 15km west of Bakhmut, the city destroyed and occupied by Russian soldiers and Wagner mercenaries nearly a year ago after a grinding 11-month fight.

Videos shared on Telegram by Russian military bloggers showed “glide bombs” and heavy artillery pounding Ukrainian positions and flattening apartment buildings in Chasiv Yar.

“This will likely be an important battle. Chasiv Yar is located on defensible high ground,” said Rob Lee, a senior fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Eurasia programme. “If Russia takes the city, they could potentially increase the rate of advance deeper into Donetsk [region] as part of an expected summer offensive.”

Yuriy Fedorenko, commander of the “Achilles” drone battalion, told the Financial Times last week that Ukrainian troops were outgunned by at least five artillery shells to one but had no choice except to fight.

Speaking near Chasiv Yar, he said losing the town would allow Russian troops “fire control” of the nearby strategic cities of Kostyantynivka, Druzhkivka and Kramatorsk and give them a foothold from which they could launch attacks.

Deep State, a Ukrainian analytical group that monitors the battlefield, said on Saturday that Russian troops had reached a canal that separates Chasiv Yar’s eastern and western districts but had not yet crossed it.

The group suggested that a fierce battle for the city loomed, writing that “the coming weeks will bring a lot of unpleasant and difficult news”.

“The enemy is gathering reserves for the Battle of Chasiv Yar,” said Deep State, which is close to Ukraine’s defence ministry.

Lee said that “immediate increased deliveries of ammunition could prove critical” for Ukrainian forces.

Syrsky said he was taking “all the necessary measures” to stabilise the situation and to “increase the effectiveness of our troops’ actions, and inflict maximum losses on enemy units”.

“Despite significant losses the enemy is increasing its efforts by using new units on armoured vehicles, thanks to which it periodically achieves tactical success,” he said.

Syrsky said he had ordered “the most problematic areas of the defence” to be strengthened with air defence and electronic warfare systems.

“Also, stocks of drones of all types, anti-tank missiles were replenished, additional reserves of forces and means were moved,” he said.

The only way to defeat Russia’s larger and more powerful army and create conditions for seizing the strategic initiative on the battlefield is to achieve technical superiority with “high-tech weapons”, Syrsky said. Those, he suggested, should come from western partners.

Even then, he admitted, Ukraine will still face the challenges of mobilising enough troops for the fight and providing them with sufficient training.

“The second serious problem is to improve the quality of training of military personnel, primarily infantry units, so that they can make maximum use of all the capabilities of military equipment and western weapons,” Syrsky said.

There is a Hebrew phrase that emerged in the Yishuv, the Jewish settlement in mandatory Palestine, during the fight for what would become Israeli independence: Zchor Babi Yar, which translates as remember Babin Yar. There was even a chapter of the Jewish fraternal youth group, AZA, named Zchor Babi Yar. I expect we will eventually, unfortunately, get a Ukrainian phrase that translates to remember Chasiv Yar.

https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1779250736917815470

This is a lesson in the importance of quick and decisive military support.

If Ukraine had been given everything it needed to defeat the russians early on, then Iran would have calculated that supporting russia with drones and missiles was pointless.

Instead, western inaction empowered the iranians, the chinese, the russians and others.

Now this is spiraling out of control because of these stupid redlines.

Easy solution.

Peace Through Superior Firepower.

Kharkiv:

https://twitter.com/IrynaVoichuk/status/1779249134588838124

https://twitter.com/IrynaVoichuk/status/1779262017867551132

Russian occupied Luhansk Oblast:

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1779075431318106552

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1779086864831426868

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1779071531005419586

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1779081314479591798

Russian occupied Donetsk Oblast:

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1779097969200955668

Lord, guard and guide the ones who fly
Through the great spaces in the sky.
Be with them always in the air,
In darkening storms or sunlight fair.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1779216257159414152

Ochretyne, Avdiivka front:

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1779184519934824531

Chernihiv Oblast:

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1779112178064196046

Russians shot a civilian car in Chernihiv region, the National Police reported.

This morning, the car of a resident of Novhorod-Severskyi came under attack by Russians. The car burst into flames and the man born in 1990 was mortally wounded.

According to the head of the regional military administration, Viacheslav Chaus, the man was carrying food to local residents.

That’s enough for tonight.

I may be back later with an Israel-Iran war update depending on how things go.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos tonight, so here’s some adjacent material.

https://twitter.com/eugenehmg/status/1775552627880694041

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 780: The World BurnsPost + Comments (83)

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