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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Usually wrong but never in doubt

SCOTUS: It’s not “bribery” unless it comes from the Bribery region of France. Otherwise, it’s merely “sparkling malfeasance”.

American history and black history cannot be separated.

GOP baffled that ‘we don’t care if you die’ is not a winning slogan.

I might just take the rest of the day off and do even more nothing than usual.

Jack be nimble, jack be quick, hurry up and indict this prick.

We will not go back.

Mediocre white men think RFK Jr’s pathetic midlife crisis is inspirational. The bar is set so low for them, it’s subterranean.

This is dead girl, live boy, a goat, two wetsuits and a dildo territory.  oh, and pink furry handcuffs.

I’ve spoken to my cat about this, but it doesn’t seem to do any good.

When you’re in more danger from the IDF than from Russian shelling, that’s really bad.

The most dangerous place for a black man in America is in a white man’s imagination.

A norm that restrains only one side really is not a norm – it is a trap.

When I decide to be condescending, you won’t have to dream up a fantasy about it.

Today in our ongoing national embarrassment…

How any woman could possibly vote for this smug smarmy piece of misogynistic crap is beyond understanding.

It’s always darkest before the other shoe drops.

All hail the time of the bunny!

Every one of the “Roberts Six” lied to get on the court.

I would try pessimism, but it probably wouldn’t work.

There are times when telling just part of the truth is effectively a lie.

Authoritarian republicans are opposed to freedom for the rest of us.

He wakes up lying, and he lies all day.

And now I have baud making fun of me. this day can’t get worse.

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Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

Open Threads

You are here: Home / Archives for Open Threads

Saturday Evening Open Thread: Arizona, Trying to Become the Site of Our Next Civil War

by Anne Laurie|  April 13, 20247:09 pm| 91 Comments

This post is in: Excellent Links, Healthcare, Open Threads, Republican Venality, Women's Rights Are Human Rights

Arizona - STOCKPILE

(Jack Ohman via GoComics.com)

Sen. @CaptMarkKelly:

This is a disaster for women. This is all because of Donald Trump. Doctors could be thrown in jail for just doing their job. It's clear why this happened and Trump spiked the ball on this on Monday. He's claiming responsibility and he is responsible pic.twitter.com/dQiCrLEQGW

— Julia Hamelburg (@juliahamelburg) April 11, 2024

From the Washington Post, “Clock ticking, an Arizona abortion clinic copes with confusion and fear” [gift link]:

PHOENIX — The staff at the Camelback Family Planning abortion clinic has been through this before, legislative measures and court decisions threatening to block the care they provide to women ending a pregnancy. So they opened their doors as usual on Thursday morning, doctors and nurses steeled for the latest battle, the first appointments already in line and half a dozen protesters clustered just beyond the parking lot entrance of the tan stucco office building.

In a state that has suddenly become a key front in the national fight for reproductive rights, physician Gabrielle Goodrick declared herself ready: “We’re not closing.”

The clinic lobby began to fill with patients in their 20s, 30s and even 40s. Black, White, Latina and Native American. Some were accompanied by husbands and boyfriends. A few cried as they entered, escorted in by volunteers whose umbrellas sought to shield the women from the shouts and signs — “Babies lives matter” — of those abortion opponents…

Goodrick opened the facility in 1999 and seven years later moved it here, near the foot of Camelback Mountain, with a goal of serving as many women as possible in sprawling, booming Phoenix and the surrounding region. Since Roe v. Wade was overturned nationally two years ago, it and other providers in the state have weathered a temporary abortion ban, a prohibition on abortions beyond 15 weeks, restrictions on abortions for fetal anomalies and this week a state Supreme Court ruling that revived a near-total ban dating to 1864 — when Arizona was still only a U.S. territory.

The latest uncertainty, coming seven months before the presidential election, feels punitive. “We’re political pawns,” Goodrick, 58, said Thursday. But she and fellow doctor Barbara Zipkin are resolute. And Zipkin, who began her medical career before abortion was legalized by the Roe decision in 1973, is energized by seeing more and more women engage on the issue.

show full post on front page

The clinic expanded shortly before the demise of Roe — when the patient queue at times stretched around the building, some women arriving hours before dawn, from as far as Dallas. The number of patients has only continued to increase, and the seven doctors on staff now do about 4,000 abortions a year. That’s roughly a third of the state’s total.

At one point, to skirt new restrictions, Goodrick arranged for patients to have an ultrasound in Arizona, get a prescription for medication abortion through a California telehealth appointment with Zipkin, who is licensed there, then have the pills mailed to post office boxes where patients could pick them up just over the state line.

The Arizona Supreme Court ruling on Tuesday again ratcheted up emotions; the justices signaled the ban could take effect before the end of the month. The only exception would be an abortion to save the life of the pregnant woman. Patients started calling, confused, alarmed, even frantic…

The clinic had 28 abortions scheduled: 18 surgical and 10 medication. Plus, because Arizona requires patients’ consent 24 hours in advance, 29 additional patients were expected for that. Most of the women live in Arizona, but one had traveled from Texas because abortion is already banned there.

On a counter near the front desk was a copy of the petition for a constitutional amendment that, if passed, would establish a fundamental right to an abortion up to the point of fetal viability. Supporters are still collecting signatures to make sure it goes on the November ballot. About a dozen patients had signed since Monday, prompted by staff and signs in the lobby and exam rooms reminding everyone to vote…

A recent poll of Arizona voters showed that only 8 percent back the pending total ban — crafted by a man hired to establish law and order in a Wild West territory. Vice President Harris, visiting a Tucson community center on Friday to campaign alongside abortion patients and providers, excoriated the court ruling to allow it.

“Here in Arizona, they have turned the clock back to the 1800s to take away a woman’s most fundamental right — the right to make decisions about her own body,” she told the crowd. “The overturning of Roe was without any question a seismic event. And this ban in Arizona is one of the biggest aftershocks yet.”

At Camelback, doctors acknowledge that creative workarounds probably won’t succeed this time if the 1864 law is not successfully appealed or blocked by the legislature, as some lawmakers have pledged. The state’s newly elected attorney general, a Democrat, says she won’t prosecute abortion providers under the ban. She has informed several that they probably have 60 days before the ban kicks in, while the proposed ballot measure, should it pass, wouldn’t take effect until Nov. 25.

During that window, Goodrick isn’t sure the attorney general will be able to protect clinics from prosecution by conservative county attorneys…

Team Biden-Harris' Gov. @maura_healey:

Trump did this. He owns this. He packed the court, he promised they would overturn Roe, and he did. Look at what it has unleashed. My heart aches for women in AZ. It's so draconian and misguided – we must hold him accountable pic.twitter.com/hmr415Kowe

— Julia Hamelburg (@juliahamelburg) April 9, 2024

Arizona - STOCKPILE 1

(Clay Jones via GoComics.com)

So weird how they keep doing the things everyone in the media claims they wouldn't do! https://t.co/hKTNVkgWAF

— The okayest poster there is (@ok_post_guy) April 10, 2024

Kari Lake: Banning abortion is the defining issue of our time. We have an opportunity right now with Roe v. Wade being brought down, thankfully. What I want to do is change the minds of people who think abortion is, what do they call it, ‘health care’? pic.twitter.com/afgrGUHDnj

— DNC War Room (@DNCWarRoom) April 10, 2024

Arizona voter:

Less than 300 votes were the difference between having Mayes in office and a MAGA freak. Ignore the accelerationists and dead-enders trying to convince you that voting doesn’t matter. It does. https://t.co/UuwCUG23HP pic.twitter.com/kqEQQXk343

— Jean-Michel Connard ??? (@torriangray) April 9, 2024

'She is lying': AZ Dem Senate candidate @RepRubenGallego torches Kari Lake on abortion ban https://t.co/sZCh3rLczo pic.twitter.com/VjL0GMe6SF

— The Last Word (@TheLastWord) April 10, 2024

Saturday Evening Open Thread: Arizona, Trying to Become the Site of Our Next Civil WarPost + Comments (91)

Four Directions Native Vote – Arizona and Nevada (Open Thread)

by WaterGirl|  April 13, 20243:54 pm| 94 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Political Fundraising, Targeted Political Fundraising 2023-24

Hey guys, we are about halfway to meeting the external matches for Arizona and Nevada.  Our external match hopes to get their funds to Four Directions somewhere around April 25, which is just under 2 weeks from now.

Reminder: we have an external match and we have Balloon Juice Angels for both AZ and NV, which means that anything you donate up to $50 will turn into 4x the amount you donate.

To count toward the match, let us know about your donation in the comments, or you can drop me an email message if you prefer.  Let me know which state or state in the comments.

ARIZONA


Donate

NEVADA


Donate

I think everybody knows what the stakes are, and I’m pretty sure most of us are aware of Four Directions activities organizing the Native vote, but let me know if you want more information here.

Open thread!

Four Directions Native Vote – Arizona and Nevada (Open Thread)Post + Comments (94)

Let’s Flush the Rural ‘Resentment’ About Immigration

by @heymistermix.com|  April 13, 202410:57 am| 148 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Let's Stop Buying the Rural 'Resentment' About Immigration
In November, millions of rural voters will mark their ballot for a man who has pledged to “close the borders”.  In interviews and in rallies, this group of white voters will pretend that they don’t need immigration, yet the evidence of their deep need of immigrants to work on rural farms is all over the heartland.  This picture was taken in a bathroom stall at a Love’s truck stop in Boise City, Oklahoma, a panhandle town on US Highway 287.  Anyone who’s visited non-resort areas of Mexico knows exactly why it’s there — the plumbing can’t handle toilet paper so every toilet has a garbage can next to it for used TP.  Well, that’s not the way we do here in God’s Country, where we flush our TP the way Baby Jesus told us in the Bible.  So the Mexican, Central and South American truck drivers and workers need to be reminded of that fact.

Walk into any small-town Wal-Mart in this area after suppertime and you’ll see at least a few Latino workers in the aisles.  If you look on Google Maps, in some of these towns the highest-rated restaurants serve Mexican food, and they open around 5 AM and close just after noon.  Who, I wonder, needs to pick up food at that hour other than workers who are picking up lunch or having an early breakfast?

These workers, who are treated as the lowest form of human life by the Republican Party, are absolutely essential to the rural economy.  And they work hard.  But, because we’re supposed to venerate the “heartland values” of white rural voters as somehow being better than the rest of us, we tiptoe around the fact that they’ve been fed a fantasy that white kids will somehow come back from the city to do the hard work that documented and undocumented immigrants do every single day.  Well, the simple fact is that those kids aren’t coming back, and everyone needs to accept that fact and start building a path to citizenship for those workers who want to stay in the country.

Every Cletus Safari that I’ve seen goes to the diners where a bunch of old white guys are drinking coffee at 10 in the morning.  Maybe those reporters ought to get up before the sun and head over to La Unica Taqueria, just off Highway 287 in Childress, Texas, to interview people who work for a living instead.

Let’s Flush the Rural ‘Resentment’ About ImmigrationPost + Comments (148)

Late Night Open Thread: In Case You Missed Lawrence O’Donnell’s Latest…

by Anne Laurie|  April 13, 20244:29 am| 117 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Trumpery

The five-minute clip is all over twitter, but of course some of you don’t read twitter…

Lawrence O'Donnell may have just delivered the most brutal and humiliating takedown of Donald Trump ever aired on national television pic.twitter.com/4nRnZRoo3k

— MeidasTouch (@MeidasTouch) April 12, 2024

Bonus goon content: Kevin McCarthy feels confident enough about his party’s current disarray to publicly threaten Matt Gaetz. Interesting to wonder what favors Kevin is looking for…

Kevin McCarthy refers to Matt Gaetz:

"I'll give you the truth why I'm not speaker. It's because one person, a member of Congress, wanted me to stop an ethics complaint because he slept with a 17-year-old … Did he do it or not? I don't know."

– via @MoElleithee @GUPolitics pic.twitter.com/DFZxpdgxF9

— Howard Mortman (@HowardMortman) April 10, 2024

… and what's stopping Mr. McCarthy from naming them now? https://t.co/LMqz9Jf7fw

— Andy (@trtx84) April 10, 2024

Late Night Open Thread: In Case You Missed Lawrence O’Donnell’s Latest…Post + Comments (117)

War for Ukraine Day 779: The Side that Can’t Shoot Back Loses

by Adam L Silverman|  April 12, 20249:26 pm| 33 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Painting by NEIVANMADE. It has a white background an in the center are Soldiers in green doing air defense by firing at incoming Russian missiles in the upper right. The missiles are red and yellow. In the upper left, written in green, is the text: "SAVE THE BRAVEST PEOPLE IN THE WORLD!" Below the Soldiers, also written in green, is "SUPPORT FOR KHARKIV"

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Before we start, I want to make something clear, again: the discharge petition is not going to pass and move the Senate’s supplemental aid bill to the floor of the House for a vote. Even if the remaining dozen or so Democratic holdouts agree to sign on, it would still need four Republicans. The reality, however, is it would need at least six Republicans because Congresswomen Tlaib and Omar will not vote for it because it includes additional military aid for Israel in it’s war with Hamas. I don’t think Congresswoman Bush would vote for it either for the same reason, so more likely seven Republican representatives. That is not going to happen. There is no one weird trick to get this passed. The failure to front load this before the 2022 midterms created the opportunity for Republican obstruction. And before someone in the comments explains to me how defense enterprise management works, it is possible to fund things in the defense appropriations bills for longer than a year.

As I start writing tonight’s update – 8:25 PM EDT – the skies over Ukraine are clear. The only air raid alerts are over Russian occupied Luhansk and Crimea.

That was not the case earlier today:

https://twitter.com/K_Loukerenko/status/1778825419904467233

https://twitter.com/IrynaVoichuk/status/1778781182215196769

When GEN Cavoli, the Commander of EUCOM and Supreme Allied Commander Europe testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC) yesterday he repeated a statement he’d made to the House Armed Services Committee (HASC) the day before:

“If we do not continue to support Ukraine, Ukraine will run out of artillery shells and will run out of air defense interceptors in fairly short order,” said General Christopher Cavoli, explaining that Kyiv is dependent on the United States for those key munitions.

“I can’t predict the future, but I can do simple math,” he said. “Based on my experience in 37-plus years in the U.S. military, if one side can shoot and the other side can’t shoot back, the side that can’t shoot back loses.”

Cavoli also said the failure of U.S. lawmakers to approve a $60 billion supplemental security package is already giving Russia a significant advantage.

“They [Ukraine] are now being outshot by the Russian side 5-to-1,” he told lawmakers. “That will immediately go to 10-to-1 in a matter of weeks.

“We are not talking about months. We are not talking hypothetically,” Cavoli said.

https://twitter.com/ElBeardsley/status/1778892180569866699

 

President Zelenskyy travelled to Chernivsti today. He spoke and participated in the meeting of the Congress of Local and Regional Authorities and the Made in Ukraine platform.

Here is the video of his remarks at the former:

show full post on front page

And the latter:

 

The Netherlands:

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1778784667186942448

The Prime Minister of the Netherlands Mark Rutte @MinPres
announced that the Netherlands will provide an additional €1 billion of military support for Ukraine this year. That is on top of the €2 billion that had already been agreed.

We are grateful to our Dutch partners for their unwavering support. We appreciate your leadership in supporting freedom.
Together, we are stronger!
🇺🇦🤝🇳🇱

France:

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1778747089314267567

“World War III is already underway. But European leaders, as in the days of Hitler, deny reality”

The main theses the interview with French writer and friend of Ukraine Bernard Henri-Levy for European Pravda.

🔹 The possibility of sending French troops to Ukraine

When President Macron proposed this option, he was not sure that the French public would support it.

France is the country of the Munich Agreement. In 1938, France and Britain were the godparents of the Munich Agreement with Hitler.

And despite all the tragic events that entailed this agreement, the spirit of Munich has not died in France. Many people still believe that when you face a dictator – such as Putin – you should at least partially meet his demands. They say that if you feed the beast a little, it will become peaceful.

President Macron is one of those who realized that Putin should get nothing. Because if you give the beast a finger, he will want to bite off your hand.

🔹 Will Russia attack NATO countries?

History proves that it is always with dictatorships: Russia is strong when we are weak. And if we are firm and show resilience – dictators are not confident.

There is less chance of Putin’s escalation. Although, of course, he doesn’t want to stop at Ukraine. There are no red lines for him.

🔹 World War III has already begun

“What is happening now is what World War III is all about. We are in the middle of it, with Russia, with Iran, with China, with North Korea, with Israel and Hamas acting with Putin’s support.”

🔹 Key to Ukraine’s victory

The European press often writes about “war fatigue,” but there is far less fatigue in the AFU trenches near Chasiv Yar today than there is in France or Germany.

If the West had given Ukraine the necessary support, this war could have been over rather quickly.

Link to the full interview with
@BHL
in English: https://youtu.be/qqbVooNmzr0?si=Ek5rJ2qM2cfSZNwu

The US, on the other hand, is going to be busy working on this next week:

https://twitter.com/jamiedupree/status/1778540592034959364

I went to the House of Representative’s website, this is accurate, not a spoof. The Liberty in Laundry Act prevents the imposition of new energy standards on washing machines.

https://twitter.com/dandeluce/status/1778780670153642225

NBC News has the details:

KYIV, Ukraine — Forced back, Ukraine is now digging in to stop a collapse across the war’s front lines as Russian attacks and American delays leave Kyiv and its allies to confront the possibility of a painful defeat.

A $61 billion aid package has been stuck in Congress for months, leaving Ukraine exposed on the front lines — running out of ammunition and men — while its energy system now faces an onslaught that is exposing its depleted air defenses.

The shortages forced Kyiv’s military to withdraw from a key eastern city in February, and with no progress in Washington, Ukrainian soldiers are now desperately trying to hold on to their positions along some 600 miles of the front line.

“Nothing has changed: We did not have any shells then, we don’t have any shells now,” said artillery sergeant Andriy, who was part of Kyiv’s retreat from Avdiivka in February after months of intense fighting. “The Russians continue to push in packs, without stopping,” Andriy, who did not want his last name revealed as he was not authorized to speak publicly, told NBC News last week.

Ukrainian leaders, backed up by Western officials, are pushing Republicans to break the logjam before it is too late, fearing the Kremlin could seek to take advantage by launching a new offensive over the summer or sooner.

“They understand that we are in a very weak position right now,” said Oleksandra Ustinova, a member of Ukraine’s parliament who chairs the country’s wartime oversight commission on monitoring aid. “Americans understand that as well. They understand that we literally have nothing to shoot with,” she said in a phone interview this week.On Wednesday, that message was echoed by the top U.S. general in Europe.

A crisis on the battlefield has increasingly become one in the air too.

Russia has turned its attention back to Ukraine’s energy grid, striking key facilities in missile and drone attacks that have exploited a shortage of air defense systems across the country.

But a particular focus has been Kharkiv, forcing rolling blackouts and raising the prospect that Ukraine’s second-largest city could soon become the Kremlin’s primary target.

The city, which had a prewar population of 1.5 million people, lies just 26 miles from the Russian border, and President Vladimir Putin last month hinted at his desire to carve out a “sanitary zone” around the broader Kharkiv region to stop Ukrainian attacks from reaching Russia’s own border regions.

The Ukrainians are looking for additional forms of air defense “of all kinds as soon as humanly possible,” a senior U.S. State Department official said. Kyiv has made it “very clear that the Russians are clearly taking a much more aggressive posture towards Kharkiv right now,” the official said.

Norwegian Chief of Defense Gen. Eirik Kristoffersen said in an interview this week that air defense was key not just to protecting Kharkiv from missile attacks, but to preventing a ground assault on the crucial city. “I don’t see right now that with the current situation that the Russians can do it, but I’m concerned if Ukraine runs out of air defense systems that would change the dynamics,” he said.

Much more at the link.

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1778912250520367170

Andrea Chalupa has more on Speaker Johnson. First tweet from the thread and the rest from the Thread Reader App:

https://twitter.com/AndreaChalupa/status/1778529718222139838

Mike Johnson is a staunch evangelical. He was featured in a German documentary on taking his daughter to a purity ball where she signed a pledge to never have sex before marriage. Purity balls are seen as dehumanizing to young girls and women

Speaker Mike Johnson and daughter were profiled attending ‘purity ball’ in 2015 German TV news segmentYears before becoming speaker, Mike Johnson and his family were profiled attending a “purity ball” in a German TV news segment, underscoring his deep conservative views.https://abcnews.go.com/US/speaker-mike-johnson-daughter-profiled-attending-purity-ball/story?id=105785626
Mike Johnson explained that his worldview is the bible. Evangelicals take the bible as fact, including creationism (the Earth was created by God in 6 days) and the end times propheciesImage
It’s well known that evangelicals like Mike Johnson support Israel, because they believe, according to the bible, that Israel will be destroyed in the final battle of good vs evil. Unfortunately, many believe that battle includes Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as part of God’s plan 
Here’s a video of Pat Robertson, one of the most consequential evangelical leaders to build white Christian nationalists into a political force, taking over the GOP. He claims the path to Israel’s destruction begins with Russia’s destruction of Ukraine 

The problem with end times “prophesy” is that it becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy. This is a great piece on how evangelicals contributed to the conflict in the Middle East, which they see as validation of “prophesy”

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4548756-evangelicals-caused-todays-mess-in-the-middle-east/

Christian nationalists are all about money and power. They align with strongmen to come to power and enrich themselves. Putin and Orban consolidated power with Christian nationalism. Mike Johnson is in this for the money and power, as I discuss here:

Many evangelicals see Russia’s destruction of Ukraine as necessary so Russia can fulfil prophesy by joining the forces of evil to destroy Israel. Pat Robertson provided this handy map to “prove” it’s true. Does Mike Johnson believe this? He said the bible is his worldview.Image
In last week’s @gaslitnation, I discussed with @MoniqueCamarra and @OlgaNYC1211 whether Mike Johnson will ever unblock Ukraine aid. I argued he will not, out of motivations of money and power. He hides behind Marjorie Taylor Greene to deflect blame 
Christian nationalists believe they’re living prophesy, as @terrelljstarr and I discuss in this week’s @gaslitnation. Mike Johnson is part of their “end times” cult. Biden cannot shame or reason with these people. He must work around them to save Ukraine 

Ukraine is a victim of end times prophesy. They want it to fall to usher in the end times and Jesus returns. Contact your rep through this site by a @gaslitnation listener and demand they get the discharge petitions signed to force a vote on Ukraine aid

Urge your Congressional Representatives to support UkraineLook up your US Congress representatives, use our auto-generated draft letters as the starting point for your request to support Ukraine. Make your voice count, save time. Help Ukraine win.https://helpukrainewin.com/

The EU and some of its member states:

https://twitter.com/HenryJFoy/status/1778843358539956236

From The Financial Times:

European capitals have rebuffed demands from Kyiv to send their air defence systems to Ukraine, after a week of relentless missile and drone bombardments from Russia that have destroyed critical energy plants in the war-torn country.

Ukraine has long warned that it needed urgent air defence supplies to protect itself against an overwhelming number of Russian rockets targeting the country’s power and heating infrastructure.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stepped up pleas this week for US-made Patriot batteries, castigating Kyiv’s western partners for “turning a blind eye” as the capital region saw the destruction of its largest power plant.

Speaking at the Three Seas summit in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius on Thursday, he said Ukraine had fallen into a “routine” in which it suffers Russian air attacks and then pleads for more air defences from western partners who promise to provide them but have failed to deliver.

“Missiles are striking every day, and every day we hear that Ukraine will receive new air defence systems. Every day Russian terrorists cut off the electricity to Kharkiv and our other cities, and every day we hear that new aid is coming soon,” Zelenskyy said. “The reality must finally match the words.”

Josep Borrell, the EU’s chief diplomat, said this week it was “inconceivable” that western countries could not provide seven extra Patriot batteries to Ukraine, given that they had about 100 in their arsenal they could spare.

Kyiv is lobbying for air defence systems in Poland, Romania and Spain to be sent to Ukraine, two people familiar with the talks told the Financial Times.

Kyiv foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba confirmed on a Ukrainian national news telethon late on Friday that “active negotiations” were under way with allies about acquiring two Patriot and one SAMP/T air defence systems.

While Kuleba did not name those allies, officials with knowledge of the discussions told the FT that Ukraine is in talks with Poland and Spain for a Patriot battery from each and with Romania on the French-Italian SAMP/T.

“If the countries where they are located were now ready to hand them over to us, it would be a matter of a week and we would get them,” Kuleba said.

Ukraine currently has at least three Patriot batteries and one SAMP/T battery which it received in 2023.

“They only need seven,” one person said. “But it’s complicated.”

European capitals have said they do not have plans to send more systems to Ukraine, arguing that they need to retain their own defence capabilities.

Germany has given two Patriot systems to Ukraine but made clear this week it would not provide any more.

“We will not be able to offer any more systems for the time being,” the defence ministry said on Monday.

Ukraine’s demands have put a spotlight on strategic minimum levels of defence capabilities, and whether European Nato states would decide to drop below what they have determined is the least amount required to defend their states in order to send equipment to Ukraine.

“I would say that any decision on going below strategic stock levels lies heavily in the hands of our defence forces and our military and should always remain confidential,” Finland’s President Alexander Stubb said this week when asked if he thought other countries should send more weapons to Ukraine.

Poland’s military has insisted it cannot spare Patriots for Ukraine at a time when it is itself waiting for US deliveries after Washington last June approved an order from Warsaw worth $15bn for Patriots and related equipment.

While also in Vilnius on Thursday, Poland’s President Andrzej Duda ruled out supplying Patriot systems. Instead, he said there was still a possibility Warsaw could transfer more of its Soviet-built missiles to Kyiv, without specifying which models and how many.

“In Poland, we’re just starting to build the Patriot anti-missile defence system. This system in Poland is not ready yet, so we have nothing to donate, even if we wanted to,” Duda said.

More at the link.

For want of a nail…

Brussels:

https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1778809136550904127

From Reuters:

BRUSSELS, April 12 (Reuters) – Belgian prosecutors are looking into possible Russian interference in the upcoming European Parliament election following findings provided by intelligence services, Prime Minister Alexander De Croo said on Friday.

He said investigators found that Russian groups are meddling in the European election to push forward pro-Russia candidates and thus weaken European support for Ukraine against Russia’s two-year-old invasion.

“The objective is to help elect more pro-Russian candidates to the European Parliament and reinforce a certain pro-Russian narrative in that institution,” De Croo told reporters.

“Weakened European support for Ukraine serves Russia on the battlefield,” he said.

De Croo said the Belgian investigation was launched after Czech authorities found pro-Russian agents active in Brussels seeking to influence, and even pay, European lawmakers to promote a pro-Russian agenda.

It appeared that cash payments were not made in Belgium though interference had occurred there, he said.

More at the link.

Timofiy Mylovanov, the president of the Kyiv School of Economics, posted a long thread on what he is observing on the ground in Ukraine. Here it is from the Thread Reader App:

The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/ 

Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than “Kinzhal”

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/Image

2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Image

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-11/russia-attacks-ukraine-gas-storage-sites-driving-prices-higher

3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is ‘dire’ 4/

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-missile-strike-targets-cities-across-ukraine-2024-04-11/

3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks.  5/Image

4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…
Image

https://dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600-asg-jenca-ukraine-11-apr-2024
5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/ 
6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…
Image

Ukraine nuclear plant drone strike prompts warning – BBC NewsThe International Atomic Energy Agency warns Russia and Ukraine not to attack nuclear facilities.https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68757082.amp

Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…
Image

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/politics/us-aid-ukraine-war.html?searchResultPosition=17
7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/ 

8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…
Image

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/11/christopher-cavoli-russian-military-losses-00151718

9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine’s energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine’s military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Image

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-11/strikes-on-power-plant-kharkiv-stoke-fears-of-russian-breakthrough?srnd=homepage-europe

Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/ 

There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine’s toughest test. 14/ 

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country’s allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…
Image

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-zelenskiy-arrives-lithuania-summit-war-focus-2024-04-11/

So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/
 

Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X 

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1778838567709548727

The Zaporizhzhia front:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1778735155026309346

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1778714089268601106

Moscow:

Looks like the HUR got a traitor!

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1778749029771296799

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1778790077172179255

The car of an ex-employee of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) who was “leaking” information to Russian security services was blown up in Moscow.

According to the Russian media, the owner of the Toyota Land Cruiser Prado blown up in Moscow today was a former employee of the Security Service of Ukraine, Vasyl Prozorov.

He moved to Russia several years ago, and before that, according to his own words, since 2014, he had been cooperating with the Russian security services, passing them information. As Vasyl himself has repeatedly stated in interviews, the decision to cooperate with the special services of the Russian Federation he “made voluntarily for ideological reasons.” Prozorov is listed in the Myrotvorets (‘Peacemaker’) database.

This afternoon, his SUV was blown up in a parking lot on Korovinskoye highway as Prozorov was getting into the car. He survived and was hospitalized with leg injuries.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron texts or tweets today, so here’s some adjacent material.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1778765780131238339

War for Ukraine Day 779: The Side that Can’t Shoot Back LosesPost + Comments (33)

A Picture Is Worth a Thousand Words

by WaterGirl|  April 12, 20245:17 pm| 39 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Policy, Open Threads, War in Ukraine

Posted without comment.

Open thread!

A Picture Is Worth a Thousand WordsPost + Comments (39)

Rural Resentment

by @heymistermix.com|  April 12, 20244:21 pm| 95 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Rural Road Trip 2024

I traveled to Texas to see the eclipse, and most of my travel was on US Highway 287. Between Denver and Amarillo, there’s not a hell of a lot to see. Google Maps calls US 287 the “Heartland Expressway” in Colorado, but if this is the heart of our land, we need to cut down on the cheeseburgers and get to the gym a little more often. Though I’ve spent plenty of time in rural America, the level of decay in small rural towns seemed worse this time. Maybe it’s because I’ve been living in metro Denver for the last few months. Denver definitely has its problems, but it is a bustling, booming place, with lots of new construction. Not so in eastern Colorado, and the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles.

The pictures I’ve embedded were taken in Eads and Hugo, Colorado and Paducah, Texas, but there are a lot of other towns with the same decaying buildings on the side of the road. It’s not all bad: there are signs for fundraisers, and monuments like the Eads town sign, that show the community making an effort. There are also a lot of Trump signs, “Impeach the Democrats” signs, and other associated signals that these areas are about as red as you can get in the West.

I’ve been following with interest the “debate” between the authors of White Rural Rage, Paul Waldman and Tom Schiller, and political scientists like Nicholas Jacobs. John linked to Waldman and Schaller’s piece addressing their critics, and here’s Jacobs’ piece in Politico. Jacobs, who wrote The Rural Voter: The Politics of Place and the Disuniting of America thinks that “rage” isn’t the right word — rather, we should say “resentment”. I’ve always thought that resentment was rage after it had curdled, soured and burrowed itself deep into someone’s head, but Jacobs makes big noise about the distinction. He also picks through polling research to present a picture of rural America (by which he clearly means white rural America) as a place that’s not quite as racist as you’d think.

Jacobs can certainly read polls, but he has very little insight about how the views reflected in those polls came to be. The words “Fox News” are nowhere to be found in his piece. Having seen the evidence of radicalization firsthand in my rural relatives, talking about heartfelt views of heartlanders without talking about the diet of right-wing propaganda that they regularly ingest is missing the story. Or, as Waldman and Schaller put it:

What isn’t said enough is that rural whites are being told to blame all the wrong people for their very real problems. As we argue in the book, Hollywood liberals didn’t destroy the family farm, college professors didn’t move manufacturing jobs overseas, immigrants didn’t pour opioids into rural communities, and critical race theory didn’t close hundreds of rural hospitals. When Republican politicians and the conservative media tell rural whites to aim their anger at those targets, it’s so they won’t ask why the people they keep electing haven’t done anything to improve life in their communities.

Also, cut me a break with the patronizing views of rural folk as the simple-hearted (and simple-minded) moral backbone of America. Maybe, overall, people treat each other a little better than average in a small town, but people in those towns know each other, and humans are far more likely to be good to people they know than to strangers. I find it condescending and wrong to treat rural folk as somehow better then everyone else. But there’s enormous pressure to do so — here are Waldman and Schaller again:

We call this phenomenon the “shouts and whispers” approach to social science discourse about rural whites. Find no difference between the political attitudes of rural whites and other Americans, or show that they have admirable values? Shout it from the rooftops. Uncover transgressive political beliefs among rural whites? Whisper it at a conference panel with a dozen people in attendance and no media to be found.

Rural America gets all the breaks in our political system. They get more representation, more federal money and more positive attention than urban dwellers. Yet their towns are in decay, their health is terrible, and they are under the sway of a bunch of big-city liars who wouldn’t piss on them if they were on fire. If we’re going to understand rural voters, we need to start with the bare facts, not some fantasy.

Corrections: It’s “Schaller” not “Schiller” and the last picture was taken in Hugo, Colorado.

Rural ResentmentPost + Comments (95)

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