The fairer responses we have towards the Russian state, the harder it will be for Putin to continue his rule, and thus, the war – address by the President of Ukraine

15 March 2024 – 18:45

Dear Ukrainians,

Rescue operations are still ongoing and assistance is being provided in Odessa following the Russian missile strike. It’s a despicable act of cowardice: two missiles, with the second one hitting when rescuers and doctors arrived at the scene. Among the casualties and injured are emergency paramedics and rescuers from the State Emergency Service. My condolences go out to all their families and loved ones. Dozens are wounded, and the search for people under the rubble continues. All necessary services are engaged in this effort. I am grateful to everyone who is supporting the people now and saving lives, including the police, the State Emergency Service, medics, volunteers, and municipal services. I have instructed the regional authorities to fully support all those affected. Our Defense Forces will do everything to make Russian killers feel our just response.

I’ve held several meetings with military leadership and government officials. Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi, along with the Minister of Defense, visited the front lines and presented a report today on the current situation and the preparedness of our actions. We discussed the provision of ammunition, and frontline air defense. The Commander-in-Chief assessed the overall situation and actions of commanders on the front lines. I am thankful to all senior officers who, along with soldiers and combat units, truly care for the front lines. Today, we coordinated further active steps with the Commander-in-Chief. We also discussed the production and use of our strike drones and long-range drones, Russian logistics, and their war financing system. A joint meeting was held with the Commander-in-Chief, the Minister of Defense, the Chief of the General Staff, the Chiefs of Defense Intelligence and the Security Service, and Commander of Unmanned Systems Force Sukharevskyi. Everyone understands the tasks and specific goals clearly. The Cabinet of Ministers must do everything to create even more high-tech and long-range, mass-produced drones. This must be the conveyor of Russian responsibility for terror. And this is a fundamental moment, in many ways historical. The fairer responses we have towards the Russian state, and the more palpable our actions are against the Russian system, the harder it will be for Putin to continue his sick rule, and thus, the war.

One more thing.

I chaired a meeting regarding our international work. We discussed the outcomes, communication with partners in the first half of March, and upcoming negotiations planned for the next few weeks. We are working hard to fulfill every agreement, including those regarding joint defense productions. Ukraine will become even stronger.

I thank everyone who works for our state and people. I thank everyone who fights for Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

More on Odesa:

I’ve seen the videos and pics posted of the first responders who were killed, as well as some of the civilians. I won’t be posting them here. The first responder above the jump is not the KIA, but he’s clearly shell shocked. Regardless, you DO NOT need to go looking for these or to watch them. It isn’t going to bring these people back to life, it isn’t going to help the wounded, it isn’t going to help the Ukrainians, and it isn’t going to help you.

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1768672943565901854

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1768648197503668535

The Russians are claiming they killed two senior leaders in the Ukrainian National Police element in Odesa, as well as 500 plus Ukrainians. The latter number is garbage, the assertion about the Ukrainian National Police leaders and garrison in Odesa actually being the target are likely disinformation and agitprop as I’m seeing them be amplified by anti-Ukrainian accounts.

https://twitter.com/natemook/status/1768668778735263830

I am in shock. 💔 Two friends were murdered by Russia in Odesa this morning. They went to help after the first missile attack & the second missile hit.

This is my brother Sergiy—deputy mayor & hero to Odesa. He welcomed me like family in early days of invasion & helped feed hundreds of thousands. He kept me safe along with our brother Alex here, who was also killed. Every single day, they never stopped helping Ukraine.

I am so heartbroken & angry. We have lost too many incredible people. And we are not doing enough to stop Russia. Ukraine must win, it is the only way. 🇺🇦

https://twitter.com/natemook/status/1768759534992961998

Nate Mook was Jose Andres’ on the ground relief coordinator in Ukraine during the first six months or so of the war.

Kreminna Forest:

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1768717803627090357

Avdiivka Front:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1768729588081836332

Kaluga, Russia:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1768556691690275006

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1768589024174670013

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1768537136964214865

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1768542159819407398

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1768593685686481397

Voronezh Oblast, Russia:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1768551821516087734

Somebody was asking about domestic Ukrainian weapons production/defense industrial base:

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1768594159776972955

From The Financial Times:

Ukraine has urged western allies to fund its domestic weapons production with its recently ramped up manufacturing capacity now vastly exceeding the money available for orders.

“The fastest way to start production is to do it in Ukraine,” said Oleksandr Kamyshin, minister for strategic industries, in an interview with the Financial Times. “We are very capable. We are price competitive and we are close to the front lines.”

US military support for Ukraine is stalled with a $60bn aid package stuck in Congress. European governments have made sizeable bilateral pledges of military aid but with their own stockpiles largely exhausted are focused on cranking up their own industries to fill their inventories and equip Ukraine.

Ukraine’s once vast defence industry was largely defunct by the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, but its companies have since retooled production lines, expanded their workforces and multiplied shifts. However, this capacity will be unsustainable without more contracts.

Ukrainska Pravda, a news outlet, last week calculated that Ukraine’s defence companies had the capacity to produce $18bn worth of armaments this year but had government appropriations worth only $9bn. The estimate was “more or less there”, said a Ukrainian official.

Ukraine spends nearly half of its $87bn budget on defence and relies on international donors to cover the other half, which covers public services and pensions.

The minister said that in some categories Ukraine could already produce advanced weaponry at lower costs than its western partners. He used the example of a recent donation from the Canadian government of 800 Canadian-made drones with an average unit cost of $87,000. He said Ukrainian companies could offer four different Ukrainian built models with similar or superior capabilities for $10,000-$25,000 a piece.

Kamyshin said Kyiv was “in discussions with close to 10 countries” about them financing procurement from companies in Ukraine, including fully indigenous enterprises and joint ventures with western firms.

Germany’s Rheinmetall last year signed a joint venture with Ukrainian Defense Industry JSC to produce infantry fighting vehicles and armoured personnel carriers.

“It could be quite a logical step to produce with German money,” Kamyshin said.

The minister said he was also asking the UK government to fund the production in Ukraine, under licence, of the L119 light gun, a 105mm towed howitzer made by BAE Systems.

Western military aid for Ukraine has so far been used to pay for drawdowns from national stockpiles, fresh procurement from western defence companies and off-the-shelf items from third countries, but not to fund production by Ukraine’s revived defence industry.

Kamyshin dismissed the idea that Ukrainian defence companies could become a competitive threat to suppliers elsewhere in Europe. Instead, Ukraine was adding capacity to its European allies at a time when they needed to rearm to face a heightened Russian threat, he said.

“We’ve got complementary capabilities that won’t compete but that will add to [those in] in the EU and Nato.”

Kamyshin said a revived defence industry was likely to be a pillar of Ukraine’s economic recovery once the war was over and that it was in the interests of western partners to rescue the country’s dependence on foreign assistance.

“We don’t want to keep asking for [aid] money,” he said. “We are a creative and reliable partner you want to have in your gang during hard times.”

Reuters has reported that Olaf Scholz stated that the EU will use frozen Russian assets to arm Ukraine. Of course Reuters also reports the devil that is the details.

BERLIN/PARIS/WARSAW, March 15 (Reuters) – Ukraine’s backers will use windfall profits on frozen Russian assets to finance arms purchases for Kyiv, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said following a meeting with his French and Polish counterparts aimed at showing unity after weeks of friction.

At a joint press conference in Berlin, Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk reaffirmed their support for Ukraine, whose ammunition-starved troops face their toughest battles since the early days of Russia’s invasion two years ago.

European support has become increasingly key as U.S. President Joe Biden has been unable to get a big Ukraine aid package through Congress, and much of his foreign policy energy is focused on the war in Gaza.

Scholz said the leaders had agreed on the need to procure more weapons for Ukraine on the global market and to boost the production of military gear, including through cooperation with partners in Ukraine.

“We will use windfall profits from Russian assets frozen in Europe to financially support the purchase of weapons for Ukraine,” Scholz said as he listed European Union efforts to increase support for Ukraine.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called last month for the EU to consider using such profits to “jointly purchase military equipment for Ukraine”.

The Commission is expected to make a concrete proposal in the coming days.

Some EU member countries such as Hungary have signalled reservations about the idea, according to diplomats in Brussels. But Scholz’s comments suggested he is confident that EU countries will ultimately approve the proposal.

Scholz said the leaders also agreed on the need for the Ukraine Defence Contact group – a U.S.-led group of some 50 countries that provide military support to Ukraine – to set up a coalition to provide long-distance artillery to Kyiv.

A proposal to set up a long-range missile coalition had already been agreed in Paris on Feb. 26. It was unclear whether Scholz’ comments referred to this and how Germany, which has opposed sending its long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine, would participate.

Defence ministers from the contact group are set to meet early next week at the Ramstein U.S. Air Base in Germany.

Macron reiterated his warning that it was not just Ukrainian but European security at stake.

“We will do everything as necessary for as long as needed so that Russia cannot win this war,” Macron said. “This determination is steadfast and implies our unity.”

He added that the three leaders had agreed on the need to reinforce support for Moldova, which says Russia is trying to destabilize it through a “hybrid war”.

He said the three leaders had agreed to never initiate an escalation with Russia, a possible way to downplay talk of sending Western ground troops to Ukraine, which has irked Germany.

The meeting of the so-called Weimar triangle – Germany, France and Poland – came after weeks of tensions, in particular between Scholz and Macron, that had alarmed officials in Kyiv and across the continent.

A hastily-arranged summit in Paris last month had aimed to give fresh impetus to stagnating Western efforts to help Ukraine repel a full-scale Russian invasion that has entered its third year.
Instead, Macron’s refusal to rule out deploying Western troops to Ukraine triggered a dressing down from Scholz.

Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, told Reuters that “indecision and uncoordinated action” among Kyiv’s allies was leading to “grave consequences”.

“Russia starts to get cocky and begins to believe that it can quantitatively squeeze Ukraine,” he said.

“Ukraine, in turn, is experiencing a severe shortage of specific resources, primarily shells, and is partially losing the initiative.”

Might be a good idea for leaders of EU member states to stop announcing that they are definitely doing things that they are not actually doing yet and may never actually do. Also, how about just actually doing things that would be helpful.

Kind of like this:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1768641861273399469

Greece negotiates deal with Czechia for ammunition transfer to Ukraine.

The planned delivery will include 2,000 5-inch Zuni rockets, 180 2.75-inch anti-tank rockets, 90,000 90mm projectiles used for anti-tank and anti-aircraft purposes, 4 million bullets.

Greece will also supply 70 US-maid M114A1 howitzers from Greek army stocks.

Prices for a deal are currently being negotiated with the Czech Republic that will facilitate the transfer of much-needed ammunition and artillery systems directly to Ukraine.
https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/03/15/greece-negotiates-deal-with-czechia-for-ammunition-transfer-to-ukraine/

EuroMaidan Press has the details:

Greece has announced its intention to continue providing military aid to Ukraine without depleting its own stocks this year to assist in its defense against the Russian invasion, according to Ekathimerini. Prices for a deal are currently being negotiated with the Czech Republic that will facilitate the transfer of much-needed ammunition and artillery systems directly to Ukrainian forces.

While modernizing its army, Greece has provided a variety of older weapons systems to Ukraine’s military aid, including BMP-1A1 infantry fighting vehicles, RPG-18s grenade launchers, Kalashnikov rifles, and 122mm rocket artillery rounds. Additionally, Greece is contributing to the training of Ukrainian military personnel, including pilots for F-16 jet fighters, Special Forces, and Leopard 2 MBT troops.

According to Greek officials, among the supplies Ukraine requires most urgently are rockets, projectiles, bullets, and howitzers. The planned delivery will include 2,000 5-inch Zuni rockets, 180 2.75-inch anti-tank rockets that have proved effective against Russian armor, 90,000 90mm projectiles used for anti-tank and anti-aircraft purposes, 4 million bullets, and 70 US-maid M114A1 howitzers from Greek army stocks, as per Ekathimerini.

“The latter do come from Hellenic Army stock, but have long been considered unnecessary for its operational needs. They are, however, seen as useful in Ukraine’s standoff battles in muddy terrain. This is the second batch of M114A1s that Greece will sell to the Czech Republic in order to have them transferred to Ukraine,” Ekathimerini says.

This is not the first time Greece has contributed to Ukraine’s military efforts. It has previously sent 40 Soviet-era BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicles in exchange for 40 more modern German Marder IFVs. Anti-aircraft missile launchers have also been provided. Greek Defense Minister Nikos Dendias will attend an upcoming Ramstein-format meeting in Germany of countries donating arms to Ukraine on 19 March.

While willing to assist Ukraine, Greece has stated it needs to replace aging anti-aircraft systems like the S-300 with more modern Western alternatives, regardless of whether the S-300s are transferred to Kyiv. Replacing all short-range and vulnerable anti-aircraft weapons on the Greek mainland and islands with Israeli systems is also a priority, Ekathimerini notes.

Maybe, just maybe, someone in the US and/or the EU might want to put their economies, or at least their defense industrial base, on a war footing!

Financial Times details the short sighted stupidity!

The Taurus system is built by a joint venture between the German arm of Europe’s largest missile maker, MBDA, and Sweden’s Saab. Bavarian-based TDW, a subsidiary of MBDA Deutschland, makes the Mephisto warhead. No missiles are in production. The Spanish, South Korean and German militaries have stocks of Taurus missiles but none have been used in war.

Production lines are idle: they were last active in 2019, following an order by the South Korean government. The plants in the Bavarian town of Schrobenhausen are only carrying out refurbishments of sold missiles. Analysts estimate that each missile costs about €1.5mn, depending on the size of the order.

Storm Shadow/Scalp-EG is manufactured by MBDA in the UK and in France. Last year saw the first use of the cruise missiles in Ukraine — gifted by UK and France — released from Ukraine’s Su-24 ground-attack aircraft.

There is one active Scalp-EG production line in France delivering an order from Greece. Athens procured some additional missiles as part of a wider weapons package for Dassault Aviation’s Rafale jets.

Neither the UK nor France have disclosed how many missiles they have sent to Ukraine. However, prior to sending Storm Shadows to Kyiv, Britain had a stockpile of up to 850, Hoffmann estimated. France had stockpiles of up to 460 Scalp-EG missiles before deliveries to Ukraine.

The US started supplying Ukraine with the Army Tactical Missile System, ballistic missiles known as ATACMS, late last year. Built by Lockheed Martin, ATACMS are fired from launchers on the ground and have a maximum range of 300km — although the ones sent to Kyiv are the older missiles with a range of 165km.

Joachim Knopf, managing director of Taurus Systems, in January said Taurus production could be resumed “at short notice” as long as an order was placed.

Nevertheless, analysts estimate a new Taurus missile would take about two years to produce.

Increasing or restarting production of a cruise missile “can’t be done overnight, with the supply chain also having to increase output or restart production of components, all of which takes time”, said Douglas Barrie, senior fellow for military aerospace at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Any missiles sent to Ukraine would likely come from the Bundeswehr’s stock of roughly 600 Taurus missiles — although only half of them are believed to be operational, according to Hoffmann.

Beyond the debate over supplying Ukraine, Europe needed to consider its own arsenal, Hoffman said. “[Missile systems] are key capabilities in modern warfare — we don’t have enough of them in our arsenals and we currently don’t produce them,” he said.

Meanwhile, Russia has increased production of its long-range missiles, from about 40 a month in 2022 to about 100 a month by the end of last year, according to the Royal United Services Institute.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos tonight. Here is some adjacent material.

https://twitter.com/natemook/status/1766598130324144283

https://twitter.com/Y_Stefanyuk/status/1766604941936800154

https://twitter.com/LorenzoTheCat/status/1768206721602785610

Open thread!