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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

They think we are photo bombing their nice little lives.

One way or another, he’s a liar.

When I was faster i was always behind.

Every one of the “Roberts Six” lied to get on the court.

We need to vote them all out and restore sane Democratic government.

It is not hopeless, and we are not helpless.

Prediction: the gop will rethink its strategy of boycotting future committees.

A snarling mass of vitriolic jackals

When we show up, we win.

Republican also-rans: four mules fighting over a turnip.

Let’s delete this post and never speak of this again.

Someone should tell Republicans that violence is the last refuge of the incompetent, or possibly the first.

Something needs to be done about our bogus SCOTUS.

When they say they are pro-life, they do not mean yours.

“But what about the lurkers?”

If you’re gonna whine, it’s time to resign!

The truth is, these are not very bright guys, and things got out of hand.

Speaker Mike Johnson is a vile traitor to the House and the Constitution.

We can show the world that autocracy can be defeated.

He really is that stupid.

This fight is for everything.

“I was told there would be no fact checking.”

You cannot shame the shameless.

I have other things to bitch about but those will have to wait.

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Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

Open Threads

You are here: Home / Archives for Open Threads

Saturday Night Open Thread (and question)

by WaterGirl|  March 9, 202410:48 pm| 118 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Looks like we can use an open thread.

This is totally worth watching.

A message for @KatieBrittforAL:
APOLOGIZE. pic.twitter.com/WudhxBxbMK

— Christine Pelosi (@sfpelosi) March 9, 2024

Plus, two people have just reported that they got the “Slow down, you are posting too quickly” message.

Is anyone else getting that?  If you are, and you can’t post, please send me email.

Open thread!

Saturday Night Open Thread (and question)Post + Comments (118)

War for Ukraine Day 745: Taras Shevchenko’s 210th Birthday

by Adam L Silverman|  March 9, 20248:24 pm| 40 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Painting by NEIVANMADE. A Ukrainian Soldier leads several Ukrainian civilians. He is holding the hand of one woman. They are painted in golden yello and are standing on the crest of a hill that has concertina wire and other anti-tank and anti-personnel obstacles on it. The hill and the obstacles are painted black. They are facing away and to the right where the sun is rising in the east and the sky is lightening from a light yellow to an orange. Below the Ukrainian Soldier and Ukrainian civilians, written in gold, is "TOGETHER YOU ARE THE LIGHT OF THE WORLD"

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Today is the 210th birthday of Taras Shevchenko.

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1766472508927324629

https://twitter.com/pravda_eng/status/1766561658690851237

https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1766419378457727470

President Zelenskyy spoke earlier today at the 2024 Taras Shevchenko National Prize ceremony. Video below, English write up after the jump.

show full post on front page

The President and the First Lady took part in the 2024 Taras Shevchenko National Prize ceremony

9 March 2024 – 15:36

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy and First Lady Olena Zelenska participated in the ceremony of awarding the 2024 Taras Shevchenko National Prize.

“Today, we announce worthy winners of the Shevchenko Prize. We thank them,” said the Head of State.

According to the President’s decree, the 2024 Taras Shevchenko National Prize in the Music Art category was awarded to artist Susana Jamaladinova (Jamala) for the album Qirim.

Also in the Music Art category, composer Karmella Tsepkolenko received the prize for cantatas “Reading the History” based on the poetry of Oksana Zabuzhko, “Where are you coming from, dark caravan, you flock of birds?” based on the poetry of Serhiy Zhadan, Duel-duet for violin and double bass, and Symphony No. 5.

In the Literature category, the prize was awarded to poet and servicewoman Yaryna Chornohuz for the poetry book “[dasein: defense of presence]” and to poet and serviceman of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Dmytro Lazutkin for the poetry book “Bookmark.”

Artist Andriy Yermolenko received the award in the Visual Arts category for the series of artworks “Ukrainian resistance.”

The laureates of the prize in the Theatrical Art category were stage director Ivan Uryvsky, production designer Tetiana Ovsiichuk, and choir conductor Susanna Karpenko for the performance “The Witch of Konotop” based on the story by Hryhoriy Kvitka-Osnovyanenko at the Ivan Franko National Academic Drama Theater.

In the Publicism/Journalism category, the prize winners were Yevhen Maloletka, Mstyslav Chernov, and Vasylysa Stepanenko for a series of journalistic materials on the siege of Mariupol (reports, photo and video reports, investigations, and the film “20 Days in Mariupol”). The film crew is in Los Angeles, representing Ukrainian cinema at the Oscar award ceremony.

The President called on those present to honor the memory of Ukrainian artists whose lives were taken by the Russian war.

“Viktoria Amelina. Volodymyr Vakulenko. Anton Romanchenko. Viktor Onysko. Ivan Kuzminsky. And many, many others… Who created and added deep meaning to the simple mode of address ‘Ukrainian men, Ukrainian women.’ I ask now to honor the memory of all whose lives became the life of Ukraine,” said Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

He said that war may take away a talented person from us, but it will never take away the memory of how much this talent has gifted Ukraine and our people, nor will it take away the respect for it.

“I want the memory of Ukrainian talents to never fade away. I want the strength of Ukrainian talents to never diminish. And I want applause to Ukrainian talents always sound in Ukraine,” added the President.

The solemn event was attended by Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Ruslan Stefanchuk, Head of the President’s Office Andriy Yermak and his deputies, Chairman of the Committee on the Taras Shevchenko National Prize of Ukraine Yevhen Nyschuk, Acting Minister of Culture and Information Policy Rostyslav Karandieiev, and other officials.

Also invited to the prize ceremony were military pressonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the National Guard, the State Border Guard Service, and employees of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine.

The Taras Shevchenko National Prize of Ukraine is a state award for the most outstanding works of literature and art, journalism, and publicism, which are the pinnacle of the spiritual heritage of the Ukrainian people, affirm high humanistic ideals, enrich the historical memory of the people, their national consciousness and identity, aimed at state-building and democratization of Ukrainian society. This year, the prize amount is UAH 429,000 each.

The Vatican:

https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1766573563060912417

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1766581732256452989

 

And course, it’s again the victim and the defender that suddenly must have ‘courage of the white flag of negotiations’ — not the aggressor and not the murderer.

Of course, because it’s much easier to twist Ukraine’s arms from some form of imagined high moral ground and profess oneself holier-than-thou.

It’s not Russia and Vladimir Putin that must immediately stop the biggest European war of aggression since Adolf Hitler that continues for 10 years — it’s Ukraine that must roll over and voluntarily jump into a mass grave with a bullet in the back of its head to ‘make things simpler’.

So evangelic, so spiritually driving, so clairvoyant, so merciful.

https://twitter.com/brokenpixelua/status/1766566595650814453

https://twitter.com/brokenpixelua/status/1766566600436584934

Papa Francesco has also pissed off Patron!

https://twitter.com/PatronDsns/status/1766622405546447162

Good job everybody!

Tatarigami provides a very well thought out and detailed response to why any negotiated agreement with Russia to end the war would not actually end the war.

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1766340981811503573

Every now and then, I converse with people from political and analytical fields globally, particularly from Europe and the US. Eventually, our discussions turn to where the war should end and what should it look like. Some directly express concerns, suggesting that certain political circles legitimately ponder why Ukraine doesn’t just sign a peace deal with Russia if Russia can’t be defeated. This, of course, aligns with a Russian narrative portraying Russia as an undefeatable dove seeking peace, while Ukraine is depicted as a warmongering state.

Unfortunately, the truth is, even if we sign some sort of truce or peace accord, there would be absolutely no security guarantees to prevent Russia from regrouping and attempting to repeat its actions later. While some Western politicians and former officials publicly state that Ukraine should join NATO soon, these are often just words without substantial backing. Even if they would be backed by an official agreement, the violation of such promises doesn’t carry significant consequences beyond reputational damage.

In 2014, Ukraine was advised not to escalate against Russia in Crimea, leading to further escalation as it created a perception of Ukrainian weakness. Russia then attempted to replicate the scenario in Donbas. Our failure to liberate Donbas and the failure of the West to help only solidified Russian confidence in taking over Ukraine, eventually leading to the events of 2022. So, what exactly would prevent Russia from launching another offensive just a few years later?

I’ve also come across suggestions that if Ukraine were to sign a peace agreement, it would provide an opportunity to rearm and resupply its army. However, this raises another question for me – who and why would precisely arm Ukraine during peacetime, especially when in 2024 Ukraine is already facing challenges in securing foreign military aid? If anything, obtaining military assistance during a time of war for the right to exist seems more feasible than trying to secure the same volumes during peacetime.

Russians don’t just annex territories – they almost immediately erase Ukrainian presence in every dimension. They forcefully russify the local population, imprison, deport, or execute the most prominent pro-Ukrainian activists, leaders, and cultural symbols. They pillage crops, move industrial machinery from factories to Russia, or simply take over businesses and profit from them. While some may find it easy to suggest abandoning these people and signing a peace deal, we all know that after eight years of such policies in Donbas and Crimea, Russia has formed multiple corps and units from these people, later deploying most of their male population to invade Ukraine.

One might say, “Okay, well, good luck then, you can handle it on your own, just without our aid.” I don’t think that we will eventually reach that point, but it’s very naive to think that this would bring an end to the war. After all, Ukraine held its defenses and repelled the Russian invasion during the first months without any substantial Western aid. Now, I understand that the situation has changed since then, and the realities on the battleground are different, but even if the frontline collapses in such events, it won’t result in Ukraine simply giving up – instead, it will lead to guerrilla warfare with assassinations, sabotages, and typical methods associated with guerilla warfare.
Europe would end up with a persistent bleeding spot, populated with millions of angry people who feel unjust, radicalized, marginalized, betrayed, and filled with resentment.

Ukraine isn’t fighting this war out of a desire to fight or to seize someone else’s territory or people. Ukraine is compelled to fight by an invader, and realistically, the only means to halt this war is to restrain Russian imperialistic ambitions in Ukraine and Europe at large. Concessions can’t achieve this goal.

Exhibit A:

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1765471431943463195

Britain:

UK Defense Minister Grant Shapps has teased confirmation that Iran has supplied Russia with ballistic missiles.

The Defence Secretary all-but confirmed reports of Tehran’s missile shipments in an interview with The House magazine.

“Whether it’s ballistic missiles, or the Shahed drones that they supplied Russia with, we’ve seen that if there’s struggle in the world, often Iran are egging it on, or helping to supply the food chain in this case. They are a bad influence, not just on their region, but in this case in Europe as well,” he said.

Iran officially denied reports last month that it had provided Russia with surface-to-surface ballistic missiles to support Putin’s ongoing war against Ukraine. Iran had supplied around 400 missiles in total to Russia, according to six sources quoted by Reuters. The shipments were said to have included Fateh-110 short-range ballistic weapons, such as the Zolfaghar, which is capable of striking targets at a distance of between 186 and 435 miles.

Speaking to The House, Shapps said there was a limit on what he could divulge about the shipments but gave a clear indication that long-range missiles were included. Sources close to the Defence Secretary did not challenge the inference that the Reuters report was correct.

Iran’s defence ministry and the Revolutionary Guards, which oversees Iran’s ballistic missile programme, declined to comment when news of the deal was initially reported.

According to one source quoted by Reuters, the shipments of missiles began in early January following a deal brokered last year between Iranian and Russian military and security officials in Tehran and Moscow.

One Iranian military official said four shipments of missiles had already been sent, with more coming in the new few weeks. Another senior Iranian official said some of the missiles were flown to Russia by plane, and others sent by ship via the Caspian Sea.

“There will be more shipments,” the second Iranian official said to the news agency. “There is no reason to hide it. We are allowed to export weapons to any country that we wish to.”

Washington, DC:

https://twitter.com/LukeDCoffey/status/1766334303980425511

Also, Washington DC:

The New York Times has reported that senior US defense and national security officials are unhappy with how Ukraine is defending itself.

More than two years into their wartime alliance, the bond between the United States and Ukraine is showing signs of wear and tear, giving way to mutual frustration and a feeling that the relationship might be stuck in a bit of a rut.

It is the stuff that often strains relationships — finances, different priorities and complaints about not being heard.

For the Pentagon, the exasperation comes down to a single, recurring issue: American military strategists, including Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III, believe that Ukraine needs to concentrate its forces on one big fight at a time. Instead, President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has vowed to drive Russia out of every inch of Ukraine, expends his forces in battles for towns that U.S. officials say lack strategic value.

The most recent example involved the battle for the eastern city of Avdiivka, which fell to Russia last month. U.S. officials say Ukraine defended Avdiivka too long and at too great a cost.

For its part, Ukraine is increasingly disheartened that American political paralysis has resulted in shortages of ammunition for troops on the front. As each day goes by without a fresh supply of munitions and artillery, and Ukrainian crews ration the shells they have, morale is suffering.

Mr. Zelensky promised a “renewal” of Ukraine’s military in its stagnant campaign against Russia when he dismissed his commanding general, Valery Zaluzhny, last month and named Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, the head of his ground forces, to replace him.

Gen. Charles Q. Brown, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was on the phone with General Syrsky the next day, as officials in the Biden administration tried to figure out whether they had found an ally in the Ukrainian military for what they see as the most likely route to success.

The jury is still out. Some officials say General Syrsky may be more in sync with Mr. Zelensky than his predecessor.

“Zelensky has made a much more unified chain of command responsive to his leadership as well as advice from outside,” said Senator Jack Reed, a Rhode Island Democrat who heads the Armed Services Committee and recently visited Ukraine.

Two other officials, however, worried whether the new military chief would be willing to push his boss in a direction he did not want to go.

Even now, months after a counteroffensive that failed because Ukraine, in the eyes of the Pentagon, did not take its advice, Kyiv is still too often unwilling to listen.

White House and Ukrainian officials both say that the failure of Congress so far to pass an emergency aid bill including $60.1 billion for Ukraine has already undermined the fight on the ground. The measure would rush badly needed artillery ammunition and air defense interceptors to Ukrainian forces.

But the Ukrainians have other frustrations with the United States. They have frequently complained that the Biden administration has been slow to approve advanced weapons systems that could cross perceived Russian red lines, from fighter jets to long-range missiles.

“We’ve been fiddling while Rome burns,” Emily Harding, a former American intelligence official, said during a Ukraine discussion last month at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “If we had not been dithering early on,” she added, “if we had actually provided the things that we should have provided, we would have been much better off now.”

In the basement of what used to be a small farmhouse, the shock wave of explosions above ground distinctly changed the air pressure in the cramped, cold room, where a Ukrainian soldier was busily adjusting drone equipment.

“The reasons the Russians can advance is because of the lack of ammunition,” said the soldier, who went by the call sign D.J. in keeping with military protocols. He added that he was frustrated by U.S. inaction, attributing the fall of Avdiivka to the United States’ failure to supply aid.

But a Ukrainian commander, who went by the call sign Chef, was far more forgiving. Had it not been for the United States, Ukrainian forces would still be trying to push the Russians out of Kyiv.

Neither the Americans nor the Ukrainians are heading for exit doors. Their commitment remains solid, as each side needs the other. The U.S. intelligence community still provides a substantial amount of real-time information to Ukraine’s military on Russian command posts, ammunition depots and other key nodes in Russian military lines. The Pentagon still hosts monthly Contact Group meetings to prod Ukraine’s partners to provide money, weapons and ammunition.

Perhaps most of all for the Biden administration, Ukraine is hollowing out the army of one of America’s biggest foes.

U.S. estimates put the number of Russian troops killed or wounded since the war started at around a staggering 350,000, according to American officials. Russia has also lost huge amounts of equipment; some 2,200 tanks out of 3,500 have been destroyed along with one-third of its armored vehicles, according to a congressional staff member who saw an intelligence assessment.

Even Russia’s victory in Avdiivka has come with considerable cost: A pro-war Russian military blogger said in a post that Russia had lost 16,000 men and 300 armored vehicles in its assault. (The blogger, Andrei Morozov, deleted the post late last month after what he said was a campaign of intimidation against him. He died the next day.)

“At the end of the day, make no mistake: Even those generals who might be frustrated with Ukraine are at the same time looking at the Russian casualties reports and equipment losses and they’re smiling,” said Dale Buckner, a former Army colonel who is the chief executive of Global Guardian, a U.S.-based security firm.

But Avdiivka was the kind of fight that American war planners would have preferred Ukraine to handle differently.

A former American commander with close ties to the Ukrainian armed forces said there was no reason to hold the city as long as Ukrainian forces did except to bleed Russia of more troops and equipment — sacrifices Moscow was more than willing to accept to claim victory.

Even after it became clear that Russian forces, with larger reinforcements, would prevail, Ukraine held out, rather than conduct a strategic withdrawal, U.S. officials said.

As a result, American frustration levels were high with the Ukrainians, especially Mr. Zelensky and the political leadership, according to a senior Western military official and the former U.S. commander. But the Biden administration has said Mr. Zelensky, as commander in chief, makes the call.

Ultimately, Ukraine’s chaotic retreat was a mistake, the former U.S. commander said. Hundreds of Ukrainian troops may have disappeared or been captured by the advancing Russian units, according to Western officials.

The disagreement over Avdiivka was a mirror image in reverse of Washington’s frustrations with the Ukrainian counteroffensive last summer. In that case, Mr. Austin and other American officials urged Ukraine to focus its assault on one main effort along the 600-mile front line and press to break through Russian fortifications there.

U.S. officials believed that General Zaluzhny had agreed with the American advice but that he could not convince his president. So instead of a single defining fight, Kyiv split up its troops, sending some to the east and some to other fronts, including in the south.

The counteroffensive failed. At the Pentagon, some officials say they do not consider last summer’s efforts to have been a counteroffensive at all.

“We say in the military, when you seek to attack everywhere, you can end up attacking nowhere — because your forces are spread too thin,” said James G. Stavridis, a retired admiral and the former supreme allied commander for Europe. “The Pentagon sees this as a mistake and will continue to offer advice to the Ukrainians along these lines.”

“The U.S. side is frustrated because they give military advice and it doesn’t feel like it’s being taken,” said Evelyn Farkas, a former senior Pentagon official for Ukraine and Russia who is now the executive director of the McCain Institute. “But the Ukrainians don’t like being micromanaged.”

On top of that, Dr. Farkas said, “our political system is shockingly unreliable right now.”

Pentagon officials are still giving advice on the military campaign they would like to see in 2024. Three U.S. military officials said in interviews that the United States wanted Ukraine to concentrate long-range strikes on “putting Crimea at risk,” a phrase that translates into attacking the Russian “land bridge” that traverses southern Ukraine and connects Russia to the Crimean Peninsula, which President Vladimir V. Putin seized in 2014.

Russian troops use the land bridge for resupply and logistics, and it is critical for their efforts in southern Ukraine and Crimea.

But again, Ukrainian frustration with American congressional paralysis is at play.

Western officials and military experts have warned that without U.S. assistance, a cascading collapse along the front is a real possibility this year.

More at the link.

I will remind everyone that the United States has not won a war, nor been able to achieve its strategic objectives in any military operation below the threshold of interstate war, since World War II.

The US’s strategy toward dealing with Russia’s genocidal re-invasion of Ukraine has been too timid by more than half. It has also been inconsistent. That strategy is created by the Biden administration. When you combine the strategic timidity and inconsistency with the Republican bad faith in the Senate and the House, we get where we’re at now. A bunch of US senior military and national security leaders who have never won a war or led US forces in achieving American strategic objectives during any military operation below the threshold of interstate war hectoring Ukraine over the latter not fighting their war of defense the way the former would like all while the promises to never abandon the Ukrainians ring every more hollow.

Speaking of strategic timidity, Germany what you got for us?

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1765444171014300131

From the BBC: (emphasis mine)

The German ambassador to the UK has said there is “no need to apologise” for security breaches which led to a call between top army officials being leaked by Russian sources.

Miguel Berger told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme one of the participants had likely dialled in via an insecure line.

As a result, Russia was able to intercept the call, he said.

In the audio, officials can be heard discussing details of alleged British operations on the ground in Ukraine.

Mr Berger hit back at criticism by former UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, who said Germany was “pretty penetrated by Russian intelligence” and “neither secure nor reliable”.

“It is extremely unhelpful what Ben Wallace has done,” Mr Berger said.

“This is what Russia wants.”

The publication of the call was a Russian “hybrid attack”, he added.

In the leaked recording, four senior German military officers are seemingly heard discussing the prospect of Ukraine using German-made Taurus cruise missiles to hit the Kerch Bridge, which links Russia to the Crimean peninsula, which was illegally annexed from Ukraine in 2014.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has repeatedly ruled out sending Taurus missiles to Ukraine.

Mr Berger said Mr Scholz was being careful about how to increase support to Ukraine, so as not to cause “consequences we all don’t want to see”.

If Germany were to provide Taurus missiles to Ukraine it would create “potential for escalation”, he said.

The missiles have a range of around 500km (300 miles) – enough to potentially hit Russian territory.

Ambassador Berger said allies’ focus needed to be on supplying enough ammunition to Ukraine.

Kyiv has said it is losing ground to Russian forces in part because of diminishing ammunition supplies.

I’d like to emphasize this part as a best practice:

“I think that is a good lesson for everybody: never use hotel internet if you want to do a secure call,” Mr Berger advised listeners of the Today programme.

Ya think?

The French are rightly concerned:

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1765766462118011375

 

Russia’s information war:

Russia is using social media to wage a war against the West. We're all participants in that war, and we're destroying each other as a result. Forcing Ukraine to capitulate won't stop Moscow⬇️https://t.co/OOHgm3gHv3

— Dr. Ian Garner (@irgarner) March 9, 2024

Dr. Garner writing at Foreign Policy:

A few weeks ago, a Russian autocrat addressed millions of Western citizens in a propaganda event that would have been unthinkable a generation ago—yet is so normal today as to be almost unremarkable. Tucker Carlson’s interview with Russian President Vladimir Putin has now been viewed more than 120 million times on YouTube and X, formerly known as Twitter. Despite the tedium of Putin’s two-hour-long lecture about an imaginary Russian and Ukrainian history, the streaming and promotion of the interview by Western platforms is only the latest successful foray in Russia’s information war against the West, which Moscow is showing every sign of winning. And in this war, the Kremlin is not just weaponizing social media, but relying on Westerners themselves to spread its messages far and wide.

A decade into Russia’s all-out information war, the social media companies seem to have forgotten their promises to act after the 2016 U.S. presidential election interference scandal, when Russian-sponsored posts reached 126 million Americans on Facebook alone. Policymakers not only seem oblivious to the full breadth and scope of Russia’s information war, but fears about stifling freedom of speech and contributing to political polarization have led them and the social media companies to largely refrain from any action to stop Russia’s ongoing campaign.

This inaction comes amid growing signs of Russian influence operations that have deeply penetrated Western politics and society. Dozens—if not hundreds or more—of Russian agents have been observed everywhere from English towns to Canadian universities. Many of these agents are low-level and appear to achieve little individually, but occasionally they penetrate institutions, companies, and governments. Meanwhile, a flood of money props up Moscow’s ambitions, including hundreds of millions of dollars the Kremlin is pouring into influencing elections, with some of that money covertly (and overtly) funneled to political parties and individual politicians. For many decades, Western societies have been deluged with every sort of influence imaginable.

While there have been some countermeasures since the start of Russia’s latest war—including the United States and European Union shutting off access to Russian media networks such as RT and Sputnik in early 2022—these small, ineffective steps are the equivalent of information war virtue signaling. They do not fundamentally change Western governments’ lack of any coherent approach to the many vectors of Russian disinformation and hybrid warfare. At the very moment when Kremlin narratives on social media are beginning to seriously undermine support for Ukraine, Western governments’ handle on the disinformation crisis seems to be getting weaker by the day.

For Putin’s Russia, “information-psychological warfare”—as a Russian military textbook calls it—is intended to “erode the morale and psychological spirit” of an enemy population. A central aspect of a wider war against the West, it is conducted online through relentless barrages of fake, real, and misrepresented news, through a cultivated network of witting and unwitting shills such as Carlson. The Kremlin’s messaging has an extraordinary reach: In the first year of the Ukraine war alone, posts by Kremlin-linked accounts were viewed at least 16 billion times by Westerners. Every one of those views is part of a full-spectrum attack against the West designed not just to undermine support for Ukraine, but to actively damage Western democratic systems.

Moscow launches its attacks using a playbook familiar to anyone who watched the disinformation campaigns linked to the 2014 invasion of Crimea and the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Bots, trolls, targeted ad campaigns, fake news organizations, and doppelganger accounts of real Western politicians and pundits spread stories concocted in Moscow—or in St. Petersburg, where then-Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin ran an army of trolls posting on Western social media. If the specific technologies are new, Russia’s strategy of information warfare is not. During World War II, Soviet propagandist Ilya Ehrenburg memorably described the pen as “a weapon made not for anthologies, but for war.” From the early Bolshevik era to the end of the Cold War, his peers spent decades spreading disinformation abroad in hopes that countries targeted by Russia would be unable to “defend … themselves, their family, their community, and their country,” as Soviet journalist turned defector Yuri Bezmenov put it.

What is undoubtedly new is a polarized Western public’s enthusiasm for re-centering its own identity around Moscow’s narratives—and becoming an unwitting weapon in the information war. Take, for example, the QAnon movement, whose supporters have long gathered critical energy from talking points supplied and amplified by Moscow through social media. QAnon supporters espouse a range of grievances familiar from Russian propaganda: anti-LGBTQ+, anti-liberal, and especially anti-Ukraine sentiments. QAnon channels on the messaging app Telegram, for example, rapidly turned into fora for anti-Ukraine and pro-war sentiment.

While ordinary users are certain that they are merely speaking their minds, a domestic policy issue has ultimately turned into a vehicle for Moscow to exert influence over national security decisions. QAnon support has spread from the United States to countries across the West—and each group of adherents, regardless of location and platform, seems to espouse the same pro-Putin sentiments and the same skepticism about providing support for Ukraine.

Such phenomena are all too familiar, whether they relate to the U.S. presidential election influence scandal, to the constant reiteration of Moscow’s talking points about NATO, or to the web of useful idiots—from quasi-journalists to rappers—who seem to function as mouthpieces for the Kremlin by consistently spreading favorable narratives under the guise of asking questions or presenting two sides of a story.

Moscow also exploits non-Western networks, such as Telegram and TikTok, to its own advantage. Today, 14 percent of adult Americans regularly consume news from Chinese-owned TikTok, where thousands of fake accounts spread Russian talking points—and where Russian propagandists can count hundreds of thousands of followers. TikTok has occasionally revealed Russian bot networks, but its efforts to stop the spread of Kremlin-aligned content have been lackluster and ineffective. Millions of Americans hoover up material created by Moscow’s propagandists, bonding with influencers and other users who also share this material, constantly propagating Moscow’s viewpoint on Ukraine. TikTok’s unwillingness to cooperate on countering such disinformation has left U.S. lawmakers with little choice but to mull an outright ban of the network—and even then, that would largely be over China-related concerns, not because lawmakers recognize the crucial role TikTok plays for the Kremlin.

Even where they ostensibly have more control, U.S. policymakers have been unwilling to do much to stem the tide of pro-Russian propaganda. Since Elon Musk took over Twitter and renamed it X, the network has all but openly welcomed Russian influence campaigns onto its servers. The platform even hosts Kremlin-aligned neo-fascists such as Alexander Dugin, who uses it to spread his apocalyptic vision of the war in Ukraine to his 180,000 followers, including via discussion spaces in English. Hundreds of accounts—many belonging to ordinary Westerners—boost Dugin’s reach (and that of similar figures) by following him as well as liking or commenting on posts. X’s streaming and promotion of the Carlson interview and Musk’s own echoing of Russian talking points—such as highly specific claims about Ukraine using phrasing normally employed only by Russian officials—have come in for heavy criticism. But just as damaging are the smaller communities created around figures such as Dugin, where Western users do much to spread an anti-Ukraine message.

If anything, there are signs that governments are taking Russia’s influence campaigns less seriously today than in the past. The British government first stymied the release of a damning report on Russian interference in British politics—and once the report was released, it did little to act on the findings. In Washington, the Biden administration is scaling back its efforts to head off Russian disinformation. Flummoxed by a barrage of criticism reflecting freedom of speech concerns, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security shuttered its Disinformation Governance Board in August 2022, even as Americans were being barraged by an unprecedented wave of pro-war and anti-Ukraine propaganda on social media. Since then, the U.S. State Department’s parsimonious funding has chiefly gone to small-scale nongovernmental organizations offering fact-checking and disinformation tracking services—a drop in the bucket at best.

When Western governments do address foreign hybrid threats, such as cybersecurity and election interference, they are increasingly focused on China. And invariably, they still identify such threats merely as “influence” or “interference,” rather than as part of a larger, concerted military effort. Their responses thus mistakenly circumscribe Russia’s hybrid warfare as a discrete, restricted, and targeted policy of disruption. In reality, it is an ongoing, fluid, and broad phenomenon that invites continued violence.

There is much, much more at the link!

Taganrog, Rostov Oblast, Russia:

Interesting details about the UAVs that attacked Taganrog in the Russian part of the special military operation zone last night. Appear to be similar to Shaheds. Difficult to intercept. pic.twitter.com/gNfft5Y0s3

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) March 9, 2024

/1. At night there was a drone attack on Taganrog, Russia. The attack was most likely carried out on an airport/factory where a Russian A-50 had previously been spotted. A-50 was spotted on the satellite imagery published by @cxemu and appeared on the airfield between 28-29th of… pic.twitter.com/YN1ZlpMiqW

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 9, 2024

/3. The Taganrog is located 140km from the frontline. Well in range of Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles. But as we see, for well-known reasons, the Russians feel quite comfortable to place such important and limiting equipment as the A-50 there. pic.twitter.com/8OB4e7Isyq

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 9, 2024

/5. The damaged area is located closer to the hangars gates.
Plus some photos of how the targeted hangar looks like. pic.twitter.com/TnhxfbMb0a

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 9, 2024

Tatarigami and his Frontelligence Insight team have a new assessment for us to ponder. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:

The Frontelligence Insight conducted a visual analysis of satellite imagery to assess the impact of a Ukrainian UAV attack on an aircraft repair facility in Taganrog, The imagery indeed validates the damage sustained by the facility.

Don't forget to like and share!

🧵Thread: pic.twitter.com/JEcA4wAN1y

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) March 9, 2024

2/ A comparative analysis shows scorch marks on the roof of a building identified by our team as a Final Assembly Facility, where it was suspected Russians were conducting A-50 repairs. The day before the attack:Image
3/ Notably, the A-50 is absent in the imagery from March 8th and March 9th, leaving uncertainty about its presence in the airfield during the operation. Earlier images, disclosed by investigative journalists at @cxemu, showed an A-50 parked near the hangar on February 29th.Image
4/ If the drones managed to penetrate the roof, the payload in drones would be enough to cause damage to equipment, and aircraft inside. However, there are no visual indications of a significant fire inside the hangar, making it challenging to assess the extent of the damage 
5/ Further satellite imagery analysis shows that at least one S-300/400 battery was present at the airfield during the attack. Unless it serves as a decoy, this suggests the Ukrainian UAV’s ability to penetrate Russian air defense systems, even in proximity to strategic objectsImage
6/ In summary, our team recognizes that the destruction or damage of the A-50 can’t be definitively concluded from this. Nonetheless, this remains a significant achievement for Ukraine due to the ability to bypass AD and target an important facility within Russian territory. 
7/ Consider supporting us through BuyMeaCoffee, as our expenses rely solely on your public support. As the war continues, public financial support is decreasing as well.

Tatarigami_UA is All Source Public IntelligenceSatellite imagery and other expenses https://buymeacoffee.com/frontelligence

Goryachy Klyuch, Krasnodar Krai, Russia:

They're going to put up a monument to Prigozhin and Utkin. They still remember them fondly.

But do they remember who killed them? pic.twitter.com/K1kmMnDbES

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) March 9, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

Got a new friend @gilesduley 👅 https://t.co/dfRQC78Cwb

— Patron (@PatronDsns) March 8, 2024

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 745: Taras Shevchenko’s 210th BirthdayPost + Comments (40)

Biden On a Hot Mic, Surely No Accident

by WaterGirl|  March 9, 20248:13 pm| 61 Comments

This post is in: Biden Administration in Action, Foreign Policy, Open Threads, Politics

You have likely heard that President Biden was “caught” on a hot mic after the State of the Union address, saying that he would be holding a “come to Jesus” meeting with Bibi.  Barak raved follows up.

1 \ BREAKING: President Biden said in an interview with MSNBC that he would like to come to Israel again to address the Knesset and speak to the Israeli people. Biden refused to specify whether there are discussions on such a possibility and refused to discuss it further

— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) March 9, 2024

1 \ BREAKING: President Biden said in an interview with MSNBC that he would like to come to Israel again to address the Knesset and speak to the Israeli people. Biden refused to specify whether there are discussions on such a possibility and refused to discuss it further

2 \ Biden was asked what he meant when he was caught on a hot mic saying that he would hold a “come to Jesus meeting” with Netanyahu. He answered that It’s a phrase that is used in a serious way. “Bibi knows what I meant”, Biden added

3 \ Biden noted Israel has the right to defend itself & go after Hamas, but emphasized that Netanyahu “must, must, must” pay more attention to preventing civilian casualties in Gaza. “He hurts Israel more than he protects her (by killing civilians). This is a mistake,” Biden said

4 \ Biden said he wants a 6-week ceasefire during which hostages will be released & a wider strategy could be advanced. He said many Arab leaders, including in Saudi Arabia, are ready for peace with Israel. “What happens after the war is what we need to focus on,” Biden said

5 \ Biden was asked if he has a red line in the Gaza war & whether an operation in Rafah would be such a red line. He replied that he has a red line, but emphasized he will not abandon Israel & will not stop the supply of weapons like Iron Dome so that Israel can’t defend itself

6 \ Biden then stressed: “We can’t have another 30,000 Palestinians die in the war. After the carpet bombings of World War II, the rules of war were changed. The rules of war must be respected”

7 \ Biden said he still believes that a deal can be reached to release the hostages in Gaza. “My CIA director in that region right at this minute still talking about it. I think it’s always possible. I never give up on that”, he said

Interesting.  To say the least.

Biden On a Hot Mic, Surely No AccidentPost + Comments (61)

GOP Venality Open Thread: A Mutually Satisfactory Bust-Out

by Anne Laurie|  March 9, 20245:43 pm| 178 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., Open Threads, Republican Venality, Trump Crime Cartel

BREAKING: RNC votes to install Donald Trump's handpicked chair as the former president asserts control over the party. https://t.co/ZaYax4OBE0

— The Associated Press (@AP) March 8, 2024

A “bust out” is a fraud tactic, commonly used in the organized crime world, wherein a business’ assets and lines of credit are exploited and exhausted to the point of insolvency. – Wikipedia

It seems, to my dyspeptic mind, as though Ronna Romney McDaniel’s ouster is being presented by Our Failed Major Media as a brutish assault upon an innocent, unwilling RNC. But from everything I’ve read, the RNC has been leaking money up & down, from the dustiest local offices in underpopulated red states to the plush lobbying hives in DC — sometimes because accurate bookkeeping is a thing *nerds* do, sometimes in homage to the proud tradition of the original Gilded Age banana republicans: Anything not nailed down is mine, and anything I can pry loose is not nailed down.

Lara Trump’s lavish beagle rescue ‘fundraising’ galas at Mar-A-Lago arguably fall closer to carelessness than peculation, but anyone working with her in the new, improved RNC fundraising efforts will… know where the sympathies of the people signing their paychecks actually lie. Money will (continue to) disappear; donors will, eventually, stop throwing good dollars after bad; Trump will continue to spiral into raging incoherence on the campaign trail…

So, at some point in the not-distant future — either just before or just after November 6, I’m guessing — it will be announced that there is no more money in the RNC coffers. Every penny, gone! Every asset, mortgaged and/or impounded!

The Republican National Committee as constituted will be officially dissolved, and a replacement either entirely Trump-free or blatantly Trump-centric will be announced. The collapse of a once-proud (or at least once solvent) institution will be blamed on Lara Trump, who will be summarily read out of the Trump business organization (with or without her husband, depending on whether Jarvanka can be lured or bribed back into the fold). Eventually, some low-level Allen Weisselberg analog will be sentenced. And the Permanent GOP Establishment will attempt to soldier blithely on…

Breaking: the piggy bank for TFG legal funds. https://t.co/j3GyziL5JR

— KAMALA NATION (@KamalaNation) March 8, 2024

show full post on front page

This is going to end in a financial disaster.

To be fair, RNC was mismanaged even before Lara Trump showed up. https://t.co/ZX5Ys3RDiD pic.twitter.com/9h0f3R5r0z

— Oliver Darko (@oliver_drk) March 9, 2024

The RNC announces Lara Trump is the new co-Chair of the Republican Party: “God does not call the qualified” pic.twitter.com/lrSbXXpRTf

— DNC War Room (@DNCWarRoom) March 8, 2024

congrats to all the down ballot republican campaign treasurers who wont have to deal with all the paperwork from RNC donations this cycle https://t.co/9CDT3qIaCD

— Andrew Lawrence (@ndrew_lawrence) March 8, 2024

One of those "close allies" is his daughter-in-law. It's just very odd how these tweets are framed b/c I guarantee you, if a son or daughter in law of a Biden, Obama, or Clinton was named co-chair of the DNC, I promise you, the media would point it out. https://t.co/sdeAkLgGXH

— scary lawyerguy (@scarylawyerguy) March 8, 2024

Lara Trump will be the best RNC Chair the Democrats have ever had.

— Tristan Snell (@TristanSnell) March 9, 2024

DNC Chair Jaime Harrison supports Lara Trump’s plan to use RNC funds to pay Trump’s legal fees: Go Lara go! Just spend it all! pic.twitter.com/Py6Uoyd5j5

— MeidasTouch (@MeidasTouch) March 8, 2024

GOP Venality Open Thread: A Mutually Satisfactory Bust-OutPost + Comments (178)

Saturday Afternoon Open Thread

by WaterGirl|  March 9, 20244:28 pm| 114 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

I don’t have much to say today, but this is a phenomenal ad.

Omg. This ad. 🤣 pic.twitter.com/Cp0juQ0E8X

— Anthony Michael Kreis (@AnthonyMKreis) March 9, 2024

This ad captures Biden so well, just a regular guy talking, nothing fake here in the slightest.  Maybe what’s-her-name from the rebuttal will want to try to rebut this?

If someone wants to locate it on YouTube, I will post the YouTube version, too.  (thanks Baud!)

Open thread!

Saturday Afternoon Open ThreadPost + Comments (114)

Open Thread: A Little Kindness All Around

by TaMara|  March 9, 202410:37 am| 130 Comments

This post is in: Cat Blogging, Dog Blogging, Make The World A Better Place, Open Threads, Pet Blogging, We All Need A Little Kindness

Just a quick hit of kindness before I run off for the day.

Best thing you’ll see today….Providence College students raised money for their security guard, James, for a trip to Nigeria so he can visit his family….I’m not crying, you’re crying 🥹🙏 pic.twitter.com/zxPEo9r7JB https://t.co/TUUYFiqbTe

— Wu Tang is for the Children (@WUTangKids) March 9, 2024

PROVIDENCE, R.I. —

From Raymond Hall on campus at Providence College, students were on a mission to surprise their favorite person in the building, James, who’s the security guard, with a gift.

“You told us a while ago that you wanted to see your family in Nigeria that you haven’t seen in a long time, so we came together and spread the word, and we started a GoFundMe because we take care of our own because that’s what we do at Providence College. They’ve done that for me, we’ve done that for each other, so now we’re doing it for you. You’re of the family, so our gift to you is a trip to Nigeria,” said sophomore student Daniel Singh.

Nearly $3,000 was raised within 24 hours for James to see his family, including his son, in Nigeria.

“He’s just the kindest soul anyone has ever met in this building. He means so much to us he’s so important. It was amazing how fast everyone connected and were able to put it together for him,” said freshman student Brandon Reichert, who helped organize the GoFundMe.

Singh and Reichert say it was a no brainer to start the GoFundMe after learning it had been 11 years since James had seen his family.

A moment that no one in the room to witness the act of kindness will forget.

“Tears to my eyes. Such an act of kindness. It was such a great reminder of the good our Friars are bringing into the world and a great reminder of how we can all do a small act of kindness every day that can make a difference,” said Dean of Students Sean Sears.

You can watch the entire story here

show full post on front page

Keep a good thought for Zander – he’s been doing poorly and without some seriously invasive tests, so far everything has been inconclusive. He’s in good spirits, though.

Open Thread: A Little Kindness All Around

and we’ll take it a day at a time.

Name the band:

Open Thread: A Little Kindness All Around 1

And Trixie just watching the world go by out the window:

Open Thread: A Little Kindness All Around 2

That’s it for me. My house is filled with 5 dogs, 3 cats, 4 people and we’re spilling out the seams. We are off to watch my niece in a drumline competition, which is always fun and I’m glad they come to CO once a year for this event so I can see her play. She’s amazing on the marimba. Heck, she’s just plain amazing. And I’m not saying that because she introduces me to her friends as “the person who made me cool.”

This is an open thread. Play nice

Open Thread: A Little Kindness All AroundPost + Comments (130)

Saturday Morning Open Thread: Standing Strong & Fighting Back

by Anne Laurie|  March 9, 20247:40 am| 252 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, President Biden, Proud to Be A Democrat, Republican Venality

President Biden: I was watching a Fox News commentator saying, 'you know, Biden is changing from trickle down economics to build from the middle out and bottom up, it’s going to ruin America.' Ruin America? We have the strongest economy in the world right now! pic.twitter.com/Ycx16nr9yI

— Biden-Harris HQ (@BidenHQ) March 8, 2024

.@JoeNBC: Last night had to make Democrats feel like they were in really good shape. I just love how the issues line up, Republicans are on the wrong side of history, polls and decency. Game, set, match to Joe Biden pic.twitter.com/FtysuyD41F

— Biden-Harris HQ (@BidenHQ) March 9, 2024

Vice President Harris: On one side, you have Joe Biden who is competent, principled, and has accomplished more than presidents hope for. On the other side, you have Trump who glorifies dictators and says he'll be a dictator on day one. The split screen is clear pic.twitter.com/HGCdvFrOqn

— Biden-Harris HQ (@BidenHQ) March 8, 2024

The Extreme MAGA Republican response to being destroyed by President Biden is to lecture us about decorum?

Get lost. pic.twitter.com/DM5gXWcdO3

— Hakeem Jeffries (@RepJeffries) March 8, 2024

Remember: Sharing is caring!

This is who we need leading the country for the next four years. Congrats to @POTUS on a powerful State of the Union address last night. pic.twitter.com/gaLc4z6ea7

— Barack Obama (@BarackObama) March 8, 2024

"My predecessor and some of you here seek to bury the truth about January 6th. I will not do that. This is a moment to speak the truth and to bury the lies. Here's the simple truth: You can't love your country only when you win." – @POTUS #BidenHarris2024 https://t.co/giDe94ycg2

— Mark Hamill (@MarkHamill) March 8, 2024

Gay: President Biden has turned the tables. He said 'this isn't about me, this is about you and American democracy and we're going to fight for it,' compared to the doom and the gloom that we saw from Republicans pic.twitter.com/BNyyhTQAQj

— Biden-Harris HQ (@BidenHQ) March 8, 2024

Team Biden-Harris is ACTIVATED pic.twitter.com/CVOkyZgrvK

— Kevin Munoz (@munozka315) March 8, 2024

Saturday Morning Open Thread: Standing Strong & Fighting BackPost + Comments (252)

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