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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

“But what about the lurkers?”

One of our two political parties is a cult whose leader admires Vladimir Putin.

“Just close your eyes and kiss the girl and go where the tilt-a-whirl takes you.” ~OzarkHillbilly

Jesus watching the most hateful people claiming to be his followers

When tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty. ~Thomas Jefferson

If you thought you’d already seen people saying the stupidest things possible on the internet, prepare yourselves.

Fear or fury? The choice is ours.

Innocent people do not delay justice.

The media handbook says “controversial” is the most negative description that can be used for a Republican.

Fucking consultants! (of the political variety)

A norm that restrains only one side really is not a norm – it is a trap.

Putting aside our relentless self-interest because the moral imperative is crystal clear.

Today in our ongoing national embarrassment…

They are lying in pursuit of an agenda.

That’s my take and I am available for criticism at this time.

Make the republican party small enough to drown in a bathtub.

It’s easy to sit in safety and prescribe what other people should be doing.

“Until such time as the world ends, we will act as though it intends to spin on.”

One way or another, he’s a liar.

Following reporting rules is only for the little people, apparently.

We need to vote them all out and restore sane Democratic government.

Why is it so hard for them to condemn hate?

We will not go quietly into the night; we will not vanish without a fight.

Dear elected officials: Trump is temporary, dishonor is forever.

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Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

Open Threads

You are here: Home / Archives for Open Threads

Sunday Afternoon Open Thread

by Betty Cracker|  March 3, 20244:48 pm| 131 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Boston terrier looking stern.Regular at the bar. Dapper little gent. A bit too enthused about the snack options sometimes.

Open thread.

ETA: At some point this week, I was driving and heard some legal analysis on an NPR program, I think. I was only half paying attention.

Anyhoo, the speaker was reviewing the “novel” perspective Justice Kavanaugh or Gorsuch* brought to the debate about bump stocks. To wit: will no one think of the poor buyers who already own bump stocks and who only wanted to convert their AR-15s into fully automatic machine guns, which are illegal even in this gun-psychotic country?

Seriously, that’s something they’re taking under deliberation. We are ruled by corrupt sociopaths.

*I confuse those two because they seem like interchangeable aging frat boys of a similar vintage.

Sunday Afternoon Open ThreadPost + Comments (131)

GOP Venality / Stupidity Open Thread: The Hunter Investigation Squad Found A Kindred Spirit

by Anne Laurie|  March 3, 20248:42 am| 291 Comments

This post is in: Excellent Links, Impeachment Inquiry, Republican Stupidity, Republican Venality

If the bank records prove anything then indict him. Otherwise and this bullshit charade.

Because that’s all you have?

— Gary Koepnick (@garykoepnick) March 2, 2024


If you can bring yourself to listen to 30 seconds of Jim Comer… dude is frantic that all the spinning plates are come crashing down, some of them possibly on his own head. We had full faith in Informant Smirnov, because he told us exactly what we wanted to hear!

How clean is the dirt on Hunter Biden? A key Republican source is charged with lying to the FBI https://t.co/gaX0zCipGj

— The Associated Press (@AP) March 2, 2024

Smirnov seems to be what Georgette Heyer would have styled ‘a plausible rogue’ — plausible only to those looking to believe. From the Associated Press, “How clean is the dirt on Hunter Biden? A key Republican source is charged with lying to the FBI”:

Alexander Smirnov was cast by Republicans as one of the FBI’s most trusted informants, offering a “highly credible” account of brazen public corruption by Joe Biden that formed a pillar of the House impeachment investigation of the Democratic president.

Then, last month, the script changed dramatically.

Smirnov, 43, finds himself charged with lying to the FBI, accused of fabricating a tale of bribery and espionage involving then-Vice President Biden and the Ukrainian energy company Burisma, and he has told officials he has Russian intelligence contacts…

Interviews and a review of public records by The Associated Press suggest this was not likely Smirnov’s first turn in what the government says is a cycle as a fabulist.

They offer a portrait of a businessman who operated a string of murky shell companies, ran with others who have been accused of fraud, and boasted of his own ties to the FBI. The episode highlights not only the perils of the Republicans’ reliance on unverified information in their quest to confront Biden but also the risks inherent in the FBI’s use of sometimes-unreliable informants who may have ulterior motives.

“How come in all of the universe nobody in America figured out for years that this guy is a fraud and a liar? How did this (expletive) make its way to Congress?” said Yossi Attia, a Los Angeles businessman who has interacted with Smirnov and once ran a penny stock company in which Smirnov held a substantial stake.…

show full post on front page

Little is known publicly about Smirnov other than allegations in the government’s case, court records, corporate financial disclosures and business filings.

A dual Israeli and U.S. citizen, Smirnov moved to the United States in 2006, traveling in Los Angeles’ Eastern European expatriate circles for more than a decade while providing information to the FBI. It wasn’t immediately clear what investigations Smirnov may have contributed to, though he worked with an FBI handler based in Seattle and the indictment suggests he provided reporting related to “ROC” — a likely reference to Russian organized crime.

A short biography included in a corporate financial document from 2011 describes Smirnov as a veteran businessman “fluent in Russian, English, Hebrew and Arabic” who once was president of a “private mineral and logistic operation, with assets in Russia.”

Even as Smirnov was being paid as a government informant, he participated in duplicitous business schemes, according to court records and interviews…

In 2016, Tigran Sarkisyan and Hripsime Khachtryan sued Smirnov, claiming he pitched them on a company called Grand Pacaraima Gold Corp. It was only after paying him $100,000 that the two discovered the stock certificates Smirnov provided were fake, according to the complaint. When they approached him about it, Smirnov told them he was working with authorities on a fraud investigation that did not involve them and he “continued to make excuses and lie” about their investment, the complaint said.

The suit was dismissed in 2018 when Sarkisyan and Khachatryan failed to show up for a court date because they were incarcerated. The two been sentenced to prison for racketeering weeks earlier in a far-reaching case against dozens of defendants that included allegations of fraud, money laundering and murder-for-hire, court records show.

Another acquaintance, Dmitry Fomichev, sued Smirnov in 2013, claiming Smirnov failed to repay a $500,000 loan. Court records state Smirnov boasted of his connections with the FBI and said he could help Fomichev “resolve certain matters then being investigated by several agencies of the federal government” in exchange for the loan.

Several months later, Fomichev was indicted on tax and immigration charges and sentenced to probation. A Los Angeles judge ruled in Fomichev’s favor in the civil case, though, issuing a nearly $600,000 judgement against Smirnov…

Prosecutors also have emphasized Smirnov’s preoccupation with keeping his accumulated wealth out of his own name, noting how he would withdraw large sums and use it to purchase cashier’s checks to give to his longtime girlfriend. After moving to Las Vegas in 2022, he gave her money to purchase a $1 million condo just off Elvis Presley Boulevard that is owned under her name, records show.

Smirnov told his FBI handler in 2017 that the Biden family name surfaced during a business call he had with a representative for Burisma, where Biden’s son Hunter served on the company’s board.

But after Donald Trump and his allies, including Rudy Giuliani, acting as a Trump lawyer, began to peddle unsupported corruption claims involving the Bidens and Ukraine before the 2020 presidential election, Smirnov’s story grew more elaborate…

All this money floating around, and a cadre of variously dim-witted and dishonest Repub ‘business experts’ just begging to be lied to! Could any self-respecting con artist resist such temptation, even given the odds against success over the long term?

Drawn in 30 seconds #Smirnov #Republicans #liars #Russia #Vodka #Cartoon #Timelapse #DrawnIn30Seconds pic.twitter.com/lKKscoHVEK

— Clay Jones (@claytoonz) February 23, 2024

GOP Venality / Stupidity Open Thread: The Hunter Investigation Squad Found A Kindred SpiritPost + Comments (291)

War for Ukraine Day 738: President Zelenskyy’s Patience Begins To Wane as the Butcher’s Bill in Odesa Comes Due

by Adam L Silverman|  March 2, 20248:55 pm| 16 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Painting by NEIVANMADE. It has a black border. There are grey buildings with black windows along the left side. The center is a yellowy-grey, perhaps Ukrainian wheat fields. There is a black shadow figure striding through it. The figure's legs and feet are all that is visible of it. On the right side are red Zs, which symbolize Putin's/Russia's "Z" war/special military operation in Ukraine. The sky above the buildings is light grey. "GENOCIDE IS GOING BUT WHO EVEN CARES?" is painted in black in the upper left hand corner.

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

The Russians opened up on Odesa again over night.

Body of three-month-old Tymofyi was found under the rubble. We can't just hate; we need to make Russia pay for every child, every woman, every men they murdered.

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) March 2, 2024

The butcher’s bill includes a mother and her three month old.

WARNING!! WARNING!! GRAPHIC IMAGERY!! WARNING!! WARNING!!

https://twitter.com/P_Kallioniemi/status/1763966256091107350

https://twitter.com/PatronDsns/status/1764010547836600644

There is a Patriot battery in Odesa. You’ll recall that it was being used to excellent effect back in November, December, and January to protect the city and the region around it from Russian bombardment. As I wrote about back in January, it now appears to be either out of ammunition or there is so little that it is being rationed to try to make it last. Which, of course, makes the battery functionally useless.

President Zelenskyy’s patience with the US’s and its EU and NATO allies and partners inability to keep their promises and resupply the Ukrainians is beginning to wear thin. Here is his address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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Delay in supplying weapons to Ukraine and anti-aircraft defense systems to protect our people leads to loss of lives – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

2 March 2024 – 19:05

Dear Ukrainians,

A rescue operation lasted all day in Odesa at the site of the Russian strike by a Shahed drone. Currently, the State Emergency Service, police, and other services continue to work – there is information about people under the rubble. It was an ordinary residential building – one of many destroyed by the inhuman Russians.

As of now, seven deaths are known, including two children. One infant – four months old, named Tymofiy. And the boy – Mark, who hadn’t turned three yet. I pass my condolences to all their families and loved ones.

Eight people were injured – including another child, a three-year-old girl. Necessary assistance is provided to all who have been injured. I thank everyone who participates in the rescue operation, and who supports people. And it is very important to be together, to help each other.

Such attacks by Shahed drones have no military sense and cannot have any. This is terrorism aimed solely at destroying lives, solely at intimidating people.

The world knows what can be opposed to terrorism. The world has enough missile defense systems, systems to protect against Shahed drones and missiles. And delaying the supply of weapons to Ukraine, missile defense systems to protect our people leads, unfortunately, to such losses, to the fact that the list of children whose lives Russia takes away constantly grows. Ukraine asked for nothing more than necessary to protect lives. When lives are lost, and partners are simply playing internal political games or disputes that limit our defense, it’s impossible to understand. It’s unacceptable. And it will be impossible to forget – the world will remember this.

Russian terror must be defeated. It’s fundamental. There is nothing they recognize in Moscow except strength. Therefore, there must be more of our strength. And unity. Unity of the world. Unity here, in Ukraine.

If anyone still lacks motivation, Shahed drones every night – that’s motivation. Russian missiles, Russian evil. Every loss of ours. Every soldier of ours who gave his life for the independence of Ukraine. A clear understanding of the enemy and real, not feigned respect for our heroes – all this is motivation to fight. To destroy the occupiers. And work for our state and people. For the strengthening of Ukraine.

Everyone who works for the state must be in the state, for the state, care for the state. For common interests, not personal ones. Personal interests – after the war. Now, everyone must support defense, care for people, preserve lives. Every day, everyone must add something to Ukraine – to our common strength.

Every day, I communicate with partners so that we can get exactly what is needed. Every day – military reports. Every day, the Commander-in-Chief and commanders are on the front lines, right where they are needed. The Commander-in-Chief has carte blanche for personnel changes in the army, in the headquarters – any changes.

All Ukrainian commanders must know the front, feel the front – the real needs. They must be with the soldiers, sergeants, in reality. They must be what is needed to achieve Ukrainian goals.

At the beginning of next week after General Colonel Syrskyi’s return from the front, I expect him with a detailed report and specific proposals for further changes and actions.

We are preparing for further work with partners – our meetings, our negotiations – for the sake of weapons for Ukraine, for the sake of the continuity of support.

Strength is needed, from everyone. We need to win this battle. The battle against evil and also against despair, on which Putin is counting heavily. We need to protect Ukraine and lives. And we can do it.

I thank everyone who is currently in battle, on the front lines, on combat missions!

Thank you to all the soldiers of mobile fire groups, and everyone who defends our sky!

Thank you to everyone who works in the defense sector and increases our own production of weapons every day. It’s extremely important.

And now, I also want to acknowledge the team of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine – all rescuers, especially those who are currently working in Odesa. Denys Panteleyev, Vitaliy Churylin, Oleksandr Kovzolovych, Oleksandr Doha, Dmytro Holovchenko, Oleksiy Harmash, Fedir Kaysyn, Oleksandr Popov, Mykhailo Tegza, Andriy Bakhmetyev, Hennadiy Karageorgi. Thank you, guys! Thank you to all of you, thank you to your colleagues!

Glory to everyone in Ukraine, for Ukraine, and with Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

The Ukrainians also shot down another SU-34 today.

Destroying russian jets is a new great tradition!
The Ukrainian Air Force shot down another Su-34 in the eastern direction.
Nice job, warriors! pic.twitter.com/kpOpeq6sGQ

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 2, 2024

Another day, another Russian Su shot down. It's astonishing how they're still missing the mark. pic.twitter.com/aB7cGuzZOR

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) March 2, 2024

The Netherlands:

The Netherlands will contribute €250 Million to the Czech initiative to deliver artillery shells for Ukraine.

The military aid package also include 14 rigid-hulled inflatable boats (RHIBs), 8 militarized river patrol boats and CB90 combat boats.

We are grateful to our Dutch… https://t.co/uO4KpxKZAl

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 2, 2024

 

The Netherlands will contribute €250 Million to the Czech initiative to deliver artillery shells for Ukraine.

The military aid package also include 14 rigid-hulled inflatable boats (RHIBs), 8 militarized river patrol boats and CB90 combat boats.

We are grateful to our Dutch partners for their unwavering support. The power of unity brings Victory day closer.

If Czech President Pavel can pull this off, those 800,000 155mm shells will be put to good use. But they’re not a solution to the Ukrainians problem. Those 800,000 rounds will last about three months or so. What is necessary is that the US and its allies in Europe and NATO need to put their defense sectors, if not their entire economies, on a war footing. Full on militarized Keynesianism. Which will have the beneficial effect of driving economic growth overall. Otherwise Russia is going to throw bodies and military material at the Ukrainians. And, unfortunately, Russia has both bodies and military material to burn while Ukraine does not.

My piece for @TIME, a cry for getting back to the spirit of “Their Finest Hour” that we had in the Battle of Kyiv 2022.

“We survive as a nation thanks to that moral choice of doing what is right…. We hope that America does the right thing. It is not too late yet.”… pic.twitter.com/kGR4bkWWjA

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) March 2, 2024

My piece for @TIME, a cry for getting back to the spirit of “Their Finest Hour” that we had in the Battle of Kyiv 2022.

“We survive as a nation thanks to that moral choice of doing what is right…. We hope that America does the right thing. It is not too late yet.”

https://time.com/6836750/ukraine-biden-us-congress/

Illia Pomomarenko writing at Time:

A little over two years ago, in the dead of a quiet night in late February 2022, pretty much every journalist in Ukraine was wide awake.

The rolling thunder of missiles was soon heard from all quarters of the Ukrainian capital. TV channels broadcast live video of gigantic plumes of fire over Ukrainian cities. And endless convoys of trucks and armored vehicles marked Z and V breaking through along most of the Ukrainian border. The unthinkable—the most catastrophic European war of aggression since Adolf Hitler—had begun.

I often go back to those early days of the Battle of Kyiv. Even more so this week amid a showdown in the U.S. Congress over $60 billion in military aid to my country.

Bach in February 2022, we were all alone. What little Western military materiel we possessed had been sent to us via an air bridge from the free world in the final weeks, or even just days, before the invasion. It was supposed to be our nation’s doomsday.

Yet no words can do justice to the unbelievable spiritual uprising of those days. So many men and women decided not to go down easy. The Ukrainian military came to life, ambushing and devastating gargantuan Russian columns advancing over woodland roads toward Kyiv.

Ukrainians stubbornly remained in the semi-surrounded capital to fulfill their duty. Businesses fed vulnerable elders and delivered meals from their restaurants to military units defending Kyiv. Many people volunteered to bring medicine and essentials to war-affected suburbs. Even more tied yellow tape around their sleeves, grabbed their hunting rifles, and self-organized into Territorial Defense units.

It was awe inspiring to witness regular people lining up to get Kalashnikov rifles from the police or preparing Molotovs in Kyiv’s Obolon to fight the invaders coming for their homes. Many, including me, moved their loved ones out of harm’s way and then got back to Kyiv out of a moral duty we’d never felt before.

Those we had elected to lead us recorded videos of themselves standing together in the Kyiv government quarter. Their message to the nation: “We are all here, defending our Fatherland.”

It was the final stand of the finest hour. The very same hour about which old Winston Churchill had once intoned in World War II. And as you know, against expectations, Ukraine prevailed in that battle.

What followed was the hell of a full-scale, prolonged war against one of the world’s most formidable military powers—and the dictator who could not come to terms with his shocking failure.

It’s been just over two years since the beginning of the Battle of Kyiv. Since then, Ukraine liberated half of its territory lost to Russia after 2022 and set off a whole range of hallmark events. The gargantuan Battle of Donbas. The liberation of Kherson. The stunning operation in Kharkiv Oblast. The Russian navy’s debacle in the Black Sea. The rise of drones as the next level of modern warfare.

Ukraine did not go it alone. Entire nations overcame their fears and hesitation and became our strong backers in war—Britain, and Germany, grappling all along with their own history, and so many other nations as well, united behind the crystal-clear vision of the horrifying threat of Russian aggression.

In victories and setbacks, here we are now—an independent nation in control of 80% of our sovereign territory, mourning our dead, sending our gratitude to friends, and grasping at any straw to carry on. We survive as a nation thanks to that moral choice of doing what is right.

Millions of men and women do so every day as they fight back in a terrible and uneven battle against the aggressor, or as they raise funds to buy FPV drones for the outgunned military, or as they work hard to keep Ukraine’s shattered wartime economy afloat.

But right now, we see America heartbreakingly fractured and in disarray over Ukraine aid. Hand on heart, knowing what America has always been and stood for, that was the last thing we in Ukraine expected.

As friends and willing partners, we Ukrainians ask the Republicans who are vocal opponents of aid to drop their obstructionism. Because, to quote Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, who took a surprise trip to Ukraine last month, “history is looking down upon you, looking over your shoulder,” he said in Kyiv. “Rise to the occasion.”

We hope that America does the right thing. It is not too late yet.

The Finns get it:

Finland is the absolute contrast to this German government. Jukka Kopra, chairman of the defense committee of the Finish parliament, said that weapons from the Nordic country can be used against military targets in Russia.

And this how it is done. Russia is a bully, which talks… pic.twitter.com/kjpEuri1OU

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) March 2, 2024

Finland is the absolute contrast to this German government. Jukka Kopra, chairman of the defense committee of the Finish parliament, said that weapons from the Nordic country can be used against military targets in Russia.

And this how it is done. Russia is a bully, which talks a lot. But Russia is full of it and the only way to deal with a bully is to punch him. Every red line which Russia announced in the beginning in this war, was crossed and proved that Russian threats are hollow.

Source (Finish): https://yle.fi/a/74-20076799

More from Odesa:

Visited the site of Russia’s attack in Odesa. Sadly, as of 1:30 pm, there are already 4 casualties; one of the victims is a child. This is one of the largest-scale cases of destruction caused by a drone strike. About 10 to 12 people could be under the debris. The rescue… pic.twitter.com/siNLAQj2KQ

— Andriy Kostin (@AndriyKostinUa) March 2, 2024

 

Visited the site of Russia’s attack in Odesa. Sadly, as of 1:30 pm, there are already 4 casualties; one of the victims is a child. This is one of the largest-scale cases of destruction caused by a drone strike. About 10 to 12 people could be under the debris. The rescue operations are ongoing.

This is a policy of genocide that is being pursued by the highest leadership of the Russian Federation. These criminal orders are being passed on to the military, who are attacking Ukrainian cities. We must stop this.

Ukraine needs more air defense systems to protect our civilians, more weapons and ammunition to stop the commission of war crimes here and in temporarily occupied territories.

Kostin is the Prosecutor General of Ukraine.

Feodisiya, Russian occupied Crimea:

Explosions and air defence work in Feodosiya, temporarily occupied Crimea. The guy filming is mostly just swearing, no translation required. pic.twitter.com/G4zZGLXdYc

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) March 3, 2024

A massive explosion occurred in Russian-occupied Feodosia. Air defense is active and possible hit the 1st drone, but the 2nd explosion seems to be ground-based and far more powerful.

Source: Telegram / Crimean Wind and Sternenko pic.twitter.com/gZ2fopz0Zp

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) March 2, 2024

The Robotyne front:

118th Brigade of Ukraine repels Russian attack on Robotyne front. https://t.co/7h9iqhBq8b pic.twitter.com/DCgJbq9btO

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 2, 2024

Avdiivka front:

Bradley targets Russian infantry at close range https://t.co/yVPTawGZkc pic.twitter.com/xOp5cS2mYF

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 1, 2024

St. Petersburg, Russia:

Russian media report that a kamikaze drone was shot down over the port area of St Petersburg, Russia pic.twitter.com/IvidouildR

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 2, 2024

Which probably explains this:

AN UAV crashed into a civilian building in St. Petersburg last night. Russian sources stated the UAV was on its way to strike a nearby oil depot but missed by just a few hundred meters. No casualties among the civilian population. What is also curious is the launch location: some… pic.twitter.com/VF0jGUMxkG

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) March 2, 2024

AN UAV crashed into a civilian building in St. Petersburg last night. Russian sources stated the UAV was on its way to strike a nearby oil depot but missed by just a few hundred meters. No casualties among the civilian population. What is also curious is the launch location: some sources said it came from the east, that is, the Russian mainland, but this will be almost impossible to confirm.

Explosions in the skies of the Leningrad Region, Russia. Air defense is active.

Apparently, drones made it again all the way to this area which is almost 900 km away from the Ukrainian border. pic.twitter.com/8EjGqhk6Br

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) March 2, 2024

Just a reminder that St. Petersburg is the capitol of Leningrad Oblast. While they renamed the city after the fall of the Soviet Union, they didn’t rename the oblast.

Krasnodar Krai, Russia:

Fallen/downed Russian X-35 missile on the territory of the Krasnodar region of Russia. Approximately 170km from the frontline. pic.twitter.com/3I8GaRxT77

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 2, 2024

Ooopsie!

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

I don't want death for children on the other side of the border, even if they’re the children of enemies. I dream of a time when russia will be isolated, unable to wage wars, and bribe state leaders with gas, oil, or simply blackmail. I dream of a great wall and a solid Ukrainian…

— Patron (@PatronDsns) March 2, 2024

I don’t want death for children on the other side of the border, even if they’re the children of enemies. I dream of a time when russia will be isolated, unable to wage wars, and bribe state leaders with gas, oil, or simply blackmail. I dream of a great wall and a solid Ukrainian army. This war is forever. The only question is, who will we be in this war? Victims or those who stopped the evil of the 21st century? We cannot do this without your support.

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 738: President Zelenskyy’s Patience Begins To Wane as the Butcher’s Bill in Odesa Comes DuePost + Comments (16)

Turkey Day (Open Thread)

by Betty Cracker|  March 2, 202410:38 am| 107 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

I was walking Badger up our crappy dirt road early this morning, which dawned still and humid and overcast but tolerably cool. We hadn’t progressed much past our property line when a very large wild turkey burst through the brush at the edge of the road. It startled the dog and me, and the turkey was surprised by our presence too. We all stopped for half a beat and stared at one another.

The turkey recovered its wits and began running up the road ahead of us, with Badger straining at the leash to give chase and sort of dragging me along behind him. You might not think a 22 lb. dog could drag an adult human, but trust me, it is possible.

A short way up the road and to the right, the turkey veered into a lot where there’s a big pile of sand with stakes and marker tape that presumably outlines the dimensions of whatever the owner intends to build there. The turkey ran straight into the marker tape at a high rate of speed and became entangled.

Badger was barking his head off, and as we approached the sandpile, I wondered if I’d have to tie Badger’s leash to a tree and go help the turkey get free. It wasn’t making much progress getting loose but instead frantically entangling itself in the tape even more.

I had a Shingrix shot yesterday, so my left arm is kind of useless, and I’ve been under the weather for weeks, so I’m not sure I’m in good enough shape to wrangle a large, angry turkey. Luckily for us all, our approach galvanized the turkey, who broke through the entanglement and skedaddled into the underbrush, trailing a length of pink tape. Phew!

Hopefully, that concludes today’s excitement. Open thread!

Turkey Day (Open Thread)Post + Comments (107)

War for Ukraine Day 737: Russia Began Their March Bombardement as the 1st Turned to the 2nd in Ukraine

by Adam L Silverman|  March 1, 20248:58 pm| 19 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Screen shot of new artwork by NEIVANMADE. The background is black. In the bottom foreground are grey Ukrainian homes and apartment buildings being bombarded by red Russian missiles with the Special Military Operation "Z" symbol on them. Above the missiles, written in red is the word "Ruzzians". Below the buildings being attacked is the statement "Turns Homes Into Graves".

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Over the past several hours Russia began tonight’s bombardment of Ukrainian civilian targets.

⚡️Russian drone attack on Kharkiv damages civilian infrastructure.

Russian drone attacks on the city of Kharkiv overnight on March 2 destroyed four cars and damaged the windows of at least ten residential buildings, Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleh Syniehubov reported.…

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 1, 2024

⚡️UPDATE: Russian drone attack on Odesa kills 1, injures 7.

A Russian drone attack on Odesa killed one person and injured at least seven others, Odesa Oblast Governor Oleh Kiper reported on March 2.https://t.co/TqMRCPTo6M

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 2, 2024

Police station, hospital, and kindergarten in Kostiantynivka were hit by S-300. Constant attacks have forced residents, whom I know, to flee. Will it become the next target for Russia's assault? pic.twitter.com/jqnEKqtuXW

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) March 1, 2024

From The Kyiv Independent:

A Russian drone attack on Kharkiv Oblast killed one man, local authorities reported on March 2.

The 76-year-old man died under the rubble of his house after a Russian drone struck his home in the Kupiansk district of Kharkiv Oblast at around 12:10 a.m. local time. Regional police also told local media that an elderly woman was evacuated from a nearby house.

Earlier tonight, Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleh Syniehubov announced that a drone attack on the city of Kharkiv, the regional capital, destroyed four cars and damaged the windows of at least ten residential buildings. No casualties have been reported in the city.

Due to its proximity to the Russian border, residents of Kharkiv Oblast have faced near-daily attacks since the start of the full-scale invasion. Part of the region was also occupied in early February 2022 before its liberation in early September.

More than 20,000 buildings have been destroyed in Kharkiv since Feb. 24, 2022, according to Ukrainian government figures.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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This year, new fighter jets will be in our skies – address by the President of Ukraine

1 March 2024 – 17:24

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Today we are in Kharkiv. The visit of Mark Rutte, Prime Minister of the Netherlands. Together we visited our warriors – the guys are recovering from their wounds. I had the honor to thank them and present them with state awards. I am grateful to every doctor, to all our medical workers who save lives. This is the most honorable job.

Together with Mark, we visited places in Kharkiv hit by Russian missiles. Ordinary residential buildings, the city’s infrastructure were destroyed… It is important to ensure greater security for Kharkiv. We are working with all leaders to bolster air defense both here and in other cities. The world has this potential, and we need sufficient joint determination to make Russian terror lose.

Today we have a new package of military support for our warriors from the Netherlands. By the way, the Netherlands is actively helping us with air defense, with the F-16 coalition. This year, new fighter jets will be in our skies, and we have to make this year an effective one in defending ourselves against Russian guided bombs, Russian aircraft, and their missiles.

Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk, and Defense Minister Rustem Umerov held a special military briefing for Mark Rutte on the situation at the front today, on our capabilities in active operations and defense in specific areas. Of course, we also talked about Kharkiv. I am grateful for the readiness of the Netherlands to continue its assistance.

We signed a bilateral security agreement between our countries – security commitments, security cooperation. This is the seventh such security agreement with our partners, and it is a strong agreement. There is a specific amount of military support per year – 2 billion euros. There are all the details of our joint work in the defense sector, in politics, and in achieving justice. The Netherlands stands for the establishment of a special tribunal for Russian aggression, supports our work both in Ukraine and with partners to bring all Russian war criminals to justice, and is in favor of strengthening sanctions against Russia for the war.

And this is a really powerful visit today. I am grateful to Mark personally and to all the people of the Netherlands for their support of Ukraine.

We have already prepared active international work for March: there will be more support, we are preparing new security agreements, new agreements on weapons for our troops.

The key point is that Russia must be losing, and our country must restore security together with our partners. We are doing everything for this. I thank everyone who helps!

Glory to Ukraine!

⚡️Zelensky: Kharkiv not safe enough for residents to return.

Kharkiv is not yet safe enough for residents to return to the city, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said at a press conference with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte on March 1.https://t.co/aTY07VLBEp

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 1, 2024

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte visited Ukraine today. Here is the video of their joint press conference:

 

Since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion, more than 20,000 buildings have been destroyed in Kharkiv. Schools, universities, residential houses, kindergartens, and churches. Russian shelling has inflicted devastation upon the city, but Kharkiv remains invincible. We… pic.twitter.com/ADtnDER0AS

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) March 1, 2024

Since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion, more than 20,000 buildings have been destroyed in Kharkiv. Schools, universities, residential houses, kindergartens, and churches. Russian shelling has inflicted devastation upon the city, but Kharkiv remains invincible. We are working with partners to bring more protection to the people, the city, and the region.

Together with Dutch @MinPres Mark Rutte, we saw the buildings damaged by Russian shelling and honored the memory of children killed by Russian aggression.

I thank everyone who works, restores the destroyed, rescues, and helps people affected by enemy shelling. May the memory of all those whose lives have been taken by Russian terror be blessed.

France:

France is ordering 100 remotely operated munitions from Delair, which will arrive in Ukraine this summer.

Thank you, France!
Victory is certain when there is unity.
🇺🇦🤝🇫🇷 https://t.co/rgTKIk159y

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 1, 2024

The French are also taking Russia’s political warfare very, very seriously.

The French internal security service is investigating an attempt to destabilize the European Union elections by pro-Russians in France https://t.co/rek71mvfQF

— Patrick Tucker (@DefTechPat) March 1, 2024

Le Monde has the details:

France has been slow to understand that, in a war, propaganda is as dangerous as cannons. In autumn 2023, the directorate-general for internal security (DGSI) opened an investigation into suspicions of attempts to destabilise the European elections on 9 June. According to the elements gathered by The World, confirmed by a source within the Ministry of Interior’, they relate to the constitution of’a list in France serving the interests of Russia and being able to benefit from the support of Moscow. Other countries of the European Union (EU)’ would be targeted by similar threats aimed at weakening the anti-Moscow front born of the war in Ukraine. On January 3, Josep Borrell, the head of European diplomacy, warned that’en this election year, « l’Europe is in danger ».

For now, the investigations of the DGSI are only’administrative, but they have already been the subject of many technical and human monitoring. None of the persons among the alleged actors in this operation have been questioned and, according to our information, french counter-spies have not yet established formal links between the Russian regime and its French relays. Nevertheless, the main European intelligence services give enough credit to this threat to find themselves in mid-March to coordinate their efforts and respond to this vast concerted attack.

For months now, the DGSI has been monitoring the draft European list of a former French member of parliament National front (l’ancien nome du Rassemblement national, RN), Jean-Luc Schaffhauser, aided by pro-Russian figures close to the extreme right, such as military’ancien Pierre Plas, journalist Dimitri of Kochko or’ex-members of the RN as Guillaume Pradoura. M. Schaffhauser had been auditioned, in 2023, to the’ National Assembly by the committee of’ parliamentary inquiry on foreign interference in French political life. He had intervened in the obtaining, by the National Front, of two loans intended to finance the party of Marine Le Pen, in particular that issued, in 2014, by a Russian bank.

Member of’Opus Dei, M. Schaffhauser does not hide his dream of seeing extreme right’ parties come to power throughout the’UE. This former consultant for Dassault and Thales in Russia is working today’ to raise the funds necessary to finance his campaign. « I need 2.5 million’euros, he says. J’ai has taken over advisory missions on disputes between States, in particular with’Italy. I can’t call on a wealthy Russian for obvious reasons. I deny any form of foreign’interference in my political approach, J’agis in the interest of France. »

Who else do we know in Opus Dei? This guy!

The Germans seem to be suffering from serious strategic confusion:

The public discussions nowadays about Taurus that shouldn't be out in the open are just crazy 😂. Germany is reportedly considering using Taurus in a left-of-launch role to take out Russian missile launchers, possibly ones armed with nuclear warheads, in Kaliningrad. https://t.co/WkuxBYUg0X

— Fabian Hoffmann (@FRHoffmann1) March 1, 2024

Scholz: If we give the Taurus to Ukraine they could blow up legitimate Russian military targets in Russia, which could lead to a nuclear war.

Also Olaf Scholz: We’ll use the Taurus to preemptively take out nuclear tipped Russian missiles in Kaliningrad.

Olaf needs to sit down and have a hear to heart with Olaf and sort things out!

Lest they feel left out, The Insider reports that the Germans also have a Russian spy problem.

In the city of Lipetsk, 300 miles south of Moscow, stands a yellow chapel. Somewhat out of place next to a modern mirrored-window building, situated on the lip of a roundabout, the 200 year-old Church of Holy Transfiguration caters to the faithful of a large mining town that dates back to the era of Peter the Great. Inside, Father Konstantin Baiazov performs the customary rites and rituals for his flock. Dark and bearded, with a short, military-style buzz cut, the church’s archpriest’s routine is standard – services twice a day. Father Konstantin inherited the job — and the calling — from his own father, a revered Orthodox priest who, as local legend goes, had challenged the authority of the formidable KGB during Soviet times.

Konstantin, the father of three, used to travel abroad. He liked visiting Europe, and was particularly fond of Rome. However, he has not left Russia since September 2020. Since the fifth of that month, Father Baiazov’s official passport, numbered 763391844, has not belonged to a man of God. Rather, it belongs to someone who wears a different kind of white collar, looks a lot like him, and is the most wanted man in Europe.

For more than four years, Jan Marsalek, the former chief operating officer of the disgraced German financial services company Wirecard, has been living in Russia under this assumed identity, a year-long investigation by The Insider, Der Spiegel, ZDF, and Der Standard has uncovered. Wirecard, the German equivalent to PayPal was once a DAX-30 listed company, one of the wealthiest traded entities on the German stock exchange, with a valuation of $28 billion. Then came June 2020, when, in the midst of an audit, Wirecard could not locate €1.9 billion in assets it claimed were being held somewhere in the world – Russia, the United Arab Emirates or the Philippines. In fact, the money didn’t exist. Wirecard’s worth was predicated on commissions supposedly earned from three companies, Al Alam, Senjo and PayEasy, based in Dubai, Singapore and Manila, respectively. Wirecard money flowed into all three but the only documented flows in reverse existed in the German conglomerate’s imagination. Or, as the now imprisoned former CEO Markus Braun claims, it had been funneled away to a complex web of offshore accounts controlled by his then number two, Jan Marsalek.

Marsalek, the man responsible for overseeing the forging of company records, money-laundering, and extensive espionage and harassment campaigns against the journalists and speculators who exposed the enormity of Wirecard’s graft, fled in a sinuous route from Germany to Austria to Belarus to Moscow on June 19, 2020, at a moment when COVID-19 lockdowns made movement across borders more difficult than usual for ordinary citizens. But Marsalek is not only an internationally accused swindler. He is also an agent of the GRU, Russia’s military intelligence service, and he has been for the last decade. More recently, since his defection to Russia, he has also done jobs for the FSB.

The Insider’s investigation is based mainly on confidential documents, emails, and chat transcripts, as well mobile phone and travel data. Research into Marsalek’s past also included interviews conducted by our consortium partners with people close to the accused. Among these are his mother and his longtime recruiter-handler, whom Der Spiegel met up with in February at a five-star hotel in Dubai.

The never-before-told story of how the Austrian-born “whiz kid” was recruited to Russia’s largest and most notorious spy agency, the GRU, bears all the hallmarks of a genre-bending ham thriller. Sacha Baron Cohen as Bernie Madoff the Bond villain. It is a saga replete with honey traps, MiG fighter jets, erotic models, sinister ex-spooks, even more sinister mercenaries, counterfeit passports, fake priests taking Syphilis tests, and cheap disguises. More ominously, the story also involves surveillance and kidnapping plots, including surveillance targeting a member of the team that investigated Marsalek’s case, Christo Grozev.

On July 6, 2014, Zlobina turned 30. It was also the day Marsalek met his GRU handler.

Zlobina was waiting for her beau aboard a dingy Greek-flagged cutter, “Poseidon III,” in the Mediterranean waters off the coast of Nice. Marsalek arrived with a second man, who was carrying his suitcase. Marsalek climbed down a ladder into the vessel and gave Zlobina a perfunctory peck on the cheek. He was clearly angry, which was the point of this vignette, captured on marina security camera footage retrieved by Der Spiegel. The Poseidon III was a ruse, Natasha’s joke, and whether by accident or design, two years later, the Greek god of the ocean would furnish the codename used to refer to Wirecard in a bogus corporate merger scheme with a French merchant technology company, Ingenico. That scheme was designed — and then publicly leaked — to gin up Wirecard’s share prices.

Zlobina’s birthday gift to Marsalek — or maybe to herself — was an introduction aboard the yacht to a man named Stanislav Petlinsky. Zlobina introduced Marsalek to Petlinsky as “Stas, the general from GRU.” At the time, Petlinsky was dating Zlobina’s best friend, and she promised Marsalek that “Stas” would be a terrific addition to his thickening rolodex of influential Russian contacts.

So he would.

In the 90s, Petlinsky had been a supervising officer in the GRU Spetsnaz, or special forces, and fought in Chechnya. He spent that floating evening with Marsalek regaling him with his exploits — particularly as a marksman, as Marsalek expressed an interest in guns. Petlinsky’s exact rank and role in Russian intelligence — hinted at by the man himself to an intimate circle of contacts, either in truth or as provocatively sprinkled bits of disinformation aimed at burnishing his legend — is murky, but Western spy agencies do not doubt that his employer is the Russian state.

Among those Petlinsky has regaled is a reporter from Der Spiegel. That conversation occurred mere weeks ago at the Jumeirah al-Naseem beach resort in Dubai — amid a plentiful selection of champagne, Beluga caviar, and young Russian women.

Petlinsky is found sitting on the terrace overlooking the Persian Gulf. Not far from him is another Russian, Alexander Lebedev, the ex-KGB officer turned oligarch and publishing magnate who controls Britain’s Independent and Evening Standard newspapers. The two clearly know each other and nod a silent greeting.

Trim at 60, dressed in a gray pinstripe, black tee, and mirrored aviator sunglasses, Petlinsky confirms meeting Marsalek aboard the yacht in Nice in July 2014. “You know, I fell in love with him from the first moment,” he said. “He has such a beautiful mind. I always think so small, in dimensions of what’s possible,” he continues, echoing Marsalek’s own animadversions about his own father. “Jan always thinks big, very, very big.” Being chancellor of Germany? Too small for Marsalek. “But uniting China, Russia, and Europe as a counterbalance to the USA, that would interest him.”

Fancy toys and women aren’t Marsalek’s motivation, Petlinsky insists before describing the Austrian’s “beautiful mind” as being “a bit autistic.” While Marsalek’s acquaintances almost universally define him with the word “charisma,” Petlinsky says Marsalek’s weak point is dealing with people. “He lacks empathy,” the Russian spy says without noting that the trait is a telltale sign of the sociopath.

What about Marsalek’s espionage and Petlinsky’s responsibility for it? The Austrian is just playacting, Petlinsky maintains, inhabiting a theatrical role with no real-world legitimacy to it. Marsalek is “obsessed” with spycraft and all its mystique, something others also attest to. As for Petlinsky himself, he swears he’s merely a “security advisor” with a big portfolio in Africa, the kind of man who sometimes meets with Putin and chases down FSB agents. He offers a robust critique of the amateurish nature of the Khangoshvili assassination in Berlin — no small thing given that Putin has recently praised the killer Krasikov as a “patriot” in a much-discussed sit-down interview with Tucker Carlson. Petlinsky admits to introducing Marsalek to a host of colorful characters in Russia. He doesn’t want to talk about which ones were Russian intelligence officers, and he changes the subject.

But to his close circle of friends, Der Spiegel has learned, Petlinsky boasted about handing Marsalek off to the GRU after that first meeting in the South of France in 2014. Friends of Marsalek say the Wirecard fraudster’s life can be divided in two halves: “before Stas” and “after Stas.”

They traveled together, often as a trio, with Zlobina in tow. At one point, Petlinsky even told friends that he relocated his own mother, who suffered from health problems, to a clinic in Munich just to be closer to Marsalek, who built himself his own back office for Wirecard and other pursuits in a villa at Prinzregentenstraße 61, right in the center of the Bavarian capital. Johanna Singer, an employee of Wirecard (name has been changed on her request), recalled meeting Petlinsky at the gourmet Munich restaurant Tantris, where the GRU officer celebrated one of his birthdays with Marsalek, complete with a cake shaped in uncanny resemblance to the Soviet red star. One of the toniest areas of Munich, the high-ceilinged, white-columned digs cost 680,000 euro per year in rent, all paid for, of course, by Wirecard via its manifold holdings. A germaphobe in the mold of Donald Trump (the Wirecard executive somehow unsurprisingly owns a life-sized cut-out of the 45th U.S. President), Marsalek even had a field hospital built in the villa during the pandemic. The back office was conveniently situated directly across from the Russian consulate in Bavaria.

One trip Marsalek, Zlobina, and Petlinsky took was to Tunisia via private jet from Moscow in March 2016. The next month, they returned to Nice, the scene of Marsalek and Petlinsky’s meet-cute recruitment; then it was on to Tel Aviv. Stas pulled plenty of strings, as Russian border records demonstrate: much of his foreign travel is designated as “official visit to a diplomatic mission,” a category typically reserved for Russian Foreign Ministry officials.

Stas was also a connector.

A proud owner of a Harley Davidson himself, he introduced Marsalek to a heavy-set man fond of Hells Angels attire, whom Petlinsky referred to as “Vladimir, my mercenary.” Vladimir’s actual name is Anatoliy Karaziy. Like Petlinsky, Karaziy is a former GRU Spetsnaz officer, and the two are thought to have served together in Chechnya. At the very least, the mercenary part of the story proved true, as Karaziy belonged to a guns-for-hire outfit that gained in infamy after its debut on the battlefields of eastern Ukraine in 2014. It was called the Wagner Group, and it was founded by catering magnate and ex-con Yevgeny Prigozhin, a personal friend of Putin’s from their native St. Petersburg.

By 2017, Karaziy was the head of Wagner’s intelligence service. Travel data examined by The Insider confirms that on May 5, 2017, Karaziy flew from Moscow to Munich to meet with Petlinsky and Marsalek. From there, the three men flew to Beirut and then took a car into war-torn Syria, visiting the ancient city of Palmyra, which Russian forces backed by Wagner had recently captured from the terrorist group ISIS. The three men remained in Palmyra for a week, with Marsalek dressed as a soldier in aviator headgear, a flak jacket, and combat helmet (witnesses told Der Spiegel that Marsalek initially showed up dressed in brand-new state-of-the-art camouflage garb and military gear – a “shiny object in the desert” that would have attracted enemy fire within seconds; he was quickly given standard Russian attire to change into). He’s alleged to have shot live rounds at Islamist militants.

In Dubai Petlinsky suggested the rounds had come from a rocket launcher, and that Marsalek had even been given a tutorial in how to position himself properly in order to fire it. The visit to Syria, Petlinsky says, was “a dream of Jan’s that I made come true… Jan imagined a helicopter flight and loud music and Ray-Ban sunglasses. Of course, that didn’t happen. Too dangerous.”

Much, much, much more at the link including photos and screen shots of documents.

General (ret) Milley sat for an interview with The Financial Times.

We pivot to Ukraine and the opposition from Republicans in the House of Representatives to provide more money to help the country. He says the war has reached a “stalemate” and that US and European support is critical. Without that support, he warns, Russia will over time gain a strategic advantage that will be devastating. “It will be tragic, because at that point the Ukrainians will no longer be able to successfully defend themselves.”

He sees the debate in Congress as a test of whether you think US support for the rules-based international order is important. He sides with those who say that not backing Ukraine is “signalling a deathblow” to that order.

Does he think part of the problem is that Americans have just seen two decades of war — in Afghanistan and Iraq? “Absolutely. 100 per cent,” Milley says emphatically. “They’ve kind of had it with wars and forever wars.”

But he stresses that the US-led rules-based order with its network of alliances has helped prevent great power conflict. “Those rules have done a lot to make the United States a very rich, powerful, capable country.”

I quickly move to the proverbial elephant in the room — and increasingly in rooms around the world: Trump. Does Milley have a patriotic duty as a citizen to talk about things that happened when he worked with Trump? Milley is widely believed, for example, to have played a key role in making sure that Trump did not attack Iran in late 2020.

Milley used to carry a copy of the US constitution as a reminder that the military swears to defend the constitution — not the president. A reference to not taking an oath to a “wannabe dictator” in his retirement speech was widely interpreted as a jibe at Trump. But Milley pushes back at my line of questioning, saying that a retired general is never really a “private citizen”.

“I’ve fought for my freedom of speech. I’ve fought for the constitution,” he says. “There’s nothing technically illegal about speaking out . . . But I think it’s highly inappropriate for generals, retired or active, to opine on politics.”

Much more at the link!

Luke Harding is reporting on the conditions in the east of Ukraine. It’s grim. (emphasis mine)

The Russian war plane flew above Avdiivka, the Ukrainian city abandoned this month by Ukrainian forces. It looped above the new eastern frontline. And then it dropped a bomb, not far from where Maryna Haivoronska was standing in the village of Novoselivka Persha. “I saw the jet in the sky. It was 9.30am. The bomb landed 500 metres away from me. I threw myself to the ground. My legs are still trembling,” she said.

Since capturing Avdiivka Russian forces have been moving rapidly forward. Earlier this week they overran two settlements down the road from Novoselivka, where Haivoronska is the mayor. Their tactics are brutally effective. First, fighter jets carpet-bomb the area. Then, assault groups using armoured vehicles overwhelm Ukraine’s new and vulnerable positions.

Two years after the full-scale invasion, Russia is close to achieving a strategic breakthrough in the east. It is happening in a rustic landscape of brown fields, wispy yellow feather grass and pyramid-like slag heaps. Ukrainian forces clatter up and down in green Humvees along dusty country roads. But they have no answer to Russian planes, which patrol menacingly above them in an azure haze, leaving decorative curlicue trails.

Ukrainian troops have not given up. They have shot down 10 enemy Sukhoi jets in as many days. But overall they lack tactical-level air defences, which would allow them to chase away Russia’s marauding squadrons, as they move into position above the occupied city of Donetsk. The Ukrainians have little artillery. The Russians have lots. The sound of incoming Grad missiles can be heard every few minutes along the Ukrainian frontline: a terrible thunder clap.

The heavy glide bomb that fell on Novoselivka’s School Street wrecked a private two-storey house. Miraculously the family inside – Alyona Movchan and her two children – survived. The village has been hit before. In 2023 a rocket flattened the main square, destroying everything apart from a garish Soviet war memorial with a silver-painted sculpture of a wounded soldier. Two people were killed. Another died from a heart attack.

Locals say decisions being taken far away – or not, in the case of US Republicans blocking a crucial $61bn (£48bn) package to Ukraine – are existential for them. Their homes and communities are being swallowed up. “We are on our knees, begging the US and the UK for help,” Haivoronska told the Guardian. She added: “I’m from Avdiivka. I believed the city would hold. We lost it because our guys didn’t have planes or enough ammunition.”

Some residents are reluctant to leave, despite the fact the Russians are 10km away, and getting closer. The mayor said 18 people remained. There is no electricity or gas. The village shop – Natalie’s – shut this week. Its disco, kindergarten and surgery closed long ago. In the neighbouring village of Zhelanne 454 people hang on. On Tuesday humanitarian aid was given out at its school. Moscow has bombed the building three times, ripping off its southern facade.

“I have a bag packed. But where am I supposed to go?” 63-year-old Liubov Hryhorivna wondered. She explained: “I have no money. Our pensions are small. I love my country and I don’t want to leave.” What did she think of Vladimir Putin, who has vowed to ‘liberate’ the parts of Donetsk oblast not under Russian rule? “He started with Donetsk in 2014. Now he wants everything. His appetite has grown. He’s our enemy,” she said. Could Ukraine win? “I don’t know,” she replied.

Hryhorivna collected a gas stove, a solar-powered torch and a grey blanket. She said she was living in a flat belonging to her husband’s late parents, after a missile hit her own property, blowing out the windows. “I would like to stay alive so I can see my grandchildren,” she said. Of the 30 people who picked up supplies, one said he supported Russia. “I believe in peace,” Anatolii Anatoliiovych said, predicting: “Russia will win.”

France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, this week convened an emergency summit in support of Ukraine, alarmed by the stalemate in the US Congress, where participants agreed more had to be done. The EU, however, has failed to make good on its pledge to give Kyiv a million artillery rounds. Deliveries of weapons – tanks, air defence systems and long-range artillery – have typically come too late, and only after indecision and government caution.

Ukrainian troops, meanwhile, have hastily constructed a new fortified line designed to thwart further Russian advances. It stretches between the villages of Tonenke, Orlivka, and Berdychi. There are trenches. And a body of water. But they offer less protection than the now abandoned concrete bunkers inside Avdiivka’s industrial zone and its sprawling coke factory. These helped Ukrainian combat units withstand Russia and its proxies for a decade. Would the new defences work?

“I’m optimistic,” Mykola Kovalenko, head of the Ocheretynsk military district, which includes Novoselivka, Zhelanne, and other villages west of Avdiivka, said. He explained: “I believe in our armed forces. Look how long they held Avdiivka. The problem on our side is a lack of weapons. Without air power Russia could not have taken the city. Their planes are terrible for us.” He stressed: “Our soldiers are heroes. To stop Russia and its power is not easy.”

Much more at the link.

The Avdiivka front:

Bradley targets Russian infantry at close range https://t.co/yVPTawGZkc pic.twitter.com/xOp5cS2mYF

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 1, 2024

Ukrainian precision strikes upon the now Russian-occupied coke plant near Avdiivka, using JDAMs. Ukrainians know exactly where to hit where it hurts there.

Source: Telegram / Karymat pic.twitter.com/Bxt5sRF6DU

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) March 1, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

First, some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.

Red Cat can't wait to attack the occupiers, so we need to hold him back.

📷: 56th Motorized Brigade pic.twitter.com/9VOJzPcyvy

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 1, 2024

Demining squad 😎 @SESU_UA pic.twitter.com/WHJOEtgOka

— Patron (@PatronDsns) February 29, 2024

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 737: Russia Began Their March Bombardement as the 1st Turned to the 2nd in UkrainePost + Comments (19)

Fani Willis Closing Arguments

by WaterGirl|  March 1, 20243:15 pm| 163 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Politics, Trump Indictments

Closing arguments this afternoon on the GA case where Trump & company try to get Fani Willis disqualified.

According to an article in the NYT , Team Trump and his odious attorneys argue that the appearance of impropriety is enough for Fani Willis to be disqualified in the GA case.

A judge in the Georgia election interference case against former President Donald J. Trump is hearing final arguments on Friday afternoon on a motion to disqualify the prosecutor who brought the case, Fani T. Willis, on the ground that a romantic relationship she had with a subordinate created a conflict of interest.

In their first line of attack on Friday, defense attorneys tried to set the bar low for disqualification, arguing that even the appearance of a conflict of interest could lead to the dismissal of Ms. Willis and her entire office from the case. The question could be pivotal to the outcome of whether the disqualification effort succeeds.

“We can demonstrate an appearance of a conflict of interest and that is sufficient,” John B. Merchant III, a lawyer for one of Mr. Trump’s co-defendants, Michael Roman, told the judge, Scott McAfee of Fulton County Superior Court.

Mr. Trump’s lawyer, Steven H. Sadow, picked up the theme in his own remarks, arguing that “once you have the appearance of impropriety,” the law in Georgia is clear: “That’s enough to disqualify.”

But according to Anthony Michael Kreis, that is not the case.  (Law professor, political scientist, ATL enthusiast | Constitutional law, American Political Development, Supreme Court, civil rights, law of democracy 🏳️‍🌈)

NEW from me in the @ajc: Judge McAfee 𝘥𝘰𝘦𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 have the power to disqualify @FaniforDA or the @FultonCountyDA from the 2020 election interference prosecutions under the Georgia Constitution without evidence of an actual conflict of interest. #gapol https://t.co/eb9MzZ8fCS

— Anthony Michael Kreis (@AnthonyMKreis) February 29, 2024

Anthony Michael Kreis

A few brief highlights of my argument. The standard for prosecutorial disqualification is an 𝘢𝘤𝘵𝘶𝘢𝘭 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘧𝘭𝘪𝘤𝘵 not the 𝘢𝘱𝘱𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘦 of a conflict or an appearance of impropriety. Judge McAfee on February 15th suggested that the standard could be either.

Judge McBurney indicated this could be the standard when he disqualified the Fulton County DA’s Office from investigating Burt Jones’ role in the 2020 election aftermath while the Special Purpose Grand Jury was empaneled. Here is Judge McBurney’s footnote. fultonclerk.org/DocumentCenter…

The question of prosecutorial disqualification is a matter of Georgia law. The appellate courts have not always spoken with a clear unified voice on the question of what the standard is.

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Generally, they use an actual conflict. 𝘚𝘦𝘦 Ventura v. State, 346 Ga. App. 309 (2018), citing Whitworth v. State, 275 Ga. App. 790 (2005) (“such a conflict of interest requires more than a theoretical or speculative conflict. An actual conflict of interest must be involved.”).
Sometimes the appellate courts have thrown in “appearance of impropriety” language in the mix. Greater Ga. Amusements, LLC v. State, 728 S.E.2d 744, 747 (Ga. Ct. App. 2012) (“district attorney may not be compensated [in ways that have at least the appearance of a conflict…”).

The Georgia Constitution though and Georgia statutory history give us important context and guidance and should limit the standard Judge McAfee can use to the much higher bar: an actual conflict of interest. Under this standard, the motion to disqualify should be dismissed.

The Georgia Constitution establishes district attorneys as constitutional officers. The power to prosecute flows from the people of each judicial circuit through the district attorney’s office. And the Georgia Constitution imposes an unqualified duty on district attorneys:

DA’s must represent their constituents in 𝘢𝘭𝘭 criminal cases in superior court. Of course, there are limitations to that to the extent that defendants’ due process rights cannot be trumped by the Georgia Constitution’s otherwise unqualified mandate on the district attorney.
But the District Attorney is a constitutional officer; they can’t be disqualified without a demonstrable conflict that prejudices parties. I discuss in the op-ed the kinds of things are obvious conflicts of interest that would mandate disqualification by any reasonable measure.
The Supreme Court of Georgia in 2014 in 𝘔𝘤𝘓𝘢𝘶𝘨𝘩𝘭𝘪𝘯 𝘷. 𝘗𝘢𝘺𝘯𝘦 explained the DA has a very important place in our state constitutional structure. This is also why if a DA has a conflict of interest, the entire office is disqualified. They aren’t just any prosecutor.

“There is no law which authorizes any other person to act in his place in the superior court, except where he is ‘absent or indisposed, or disqualified from interest or relationship,’ and then the authority to act must come from the judge….” Butts v. State, 90 Ga. 450 (1892).
That is a case from the Supreme Court of Georgia explaining the relationship between district attorneys (then called solicitors general) and the standard for disqualification. There must be a ~conflict from interest or relationship.~

Where does this standard come from?

It was first codified in Georgia statutory law in 1860 and remains the language in O.C.G.A. § 15-18-5. Compare!

The long-and-the short of it (I explain in detail in the op-ed) is this standard is a codification of the common law standard for disqualification for judges that required an actual conflict of interest– a showing that a judge would profit or had a close connection with a party.

Today, judges are disqualified under an easier showing of bias because they are supposed to be impartial adjudicators. But prosecutors– and especially Georgia DAs– are different. The statutory standard for them is buried but it has not changed since it was codified in 1860.
Between the Georgia Constitution and the common law roots for disqualification in the OCGA, I argue that Judge McAfee cannot simply believe Fani Willis and the DA’s Office is dirtied up enough to undermine a perception of fairness, thus warranting disqualification.

ThreadReader link.

Fani Willis Closing ArgumentsPost + Comments (163)

U.S. Aid Airdrops (Open Thread)

by Betty Cracker|  March 1, 20242:24 pm| 150 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Open Threads

Good news if true from CNN:

President Joe Biden plans to announce Friday that the US will airdrop humanitarian aid and supplies into Gaza, according to people familiar with the plans.

A White House official told CNN earlier on Friday that Biden plans to discuss the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and the efforts that the US is making to address the dire situation that civilians are confronting there.

Those comments are expected to come when Biden speaks ahead of his meeting with the Italian prime minister in the Oval Office Friday, according to that official.

I’ve wondered about this option since I grew up reading about stories like the Berlin Airlift. According to USAID Administrator Samantha Power, it’s “a matter of life or death” in Gaza now. The article says several other countries have already airdropped humanitarian aid, including France and Jordan.

Open thread.

U.S. Aid Airdrops (Open Thread)Post + Comments (150)

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