We are using all means to ensure that this war ends with the defeat of the occupiers – address by the President of Ukraine

24 October 2023 – 19:30

I wish you good health, dear Ukrainians!

Today is a busy day with a lot of international work. The next summit of the Crimea Platform, its parliamentary dimension, has taken place. The first such summit was held last year in Croatia, and now the second one is in the Czech Republic. I am grateful to our Czech partners for their help in organizing the summit.

The powerful summit declaration is about supporting Ukraine, our territorial integrity and sovereignty, the need to liberate all our land from the occupier, and all our people from Russian captivity. Support of our Peace Formula. A clear voice in support of increased pressure on Russia and the exact assistance that Ukraine needs to win this war.

I’m thankful to Ruslan Stefanchuk and the entire team of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine and the involved public institutions for brilliantly holding the summit.

This time, almost 70 parliamentary delegations from different countries around the world. High-quality statements. The unwavering attention of the democratic world to Ukraine, our defense.

I addressed the summit participants and outlined our tactics regarding the Black Sea region and Crimea. Despite many doubts from various international actors, Ukraine has shown that it can prevail, despite all the challenges, especially in the Black Sea region.

This is indeed a historic achievement when the Russian fleet retreats not only from the western part of the sea but even from Crimea. However, this will make no sense to the occupiers.

And I want to say separately to all our people in Crimea, in Sevastopol, in all the occupied areas of the South and East of our state, in the currently occupied areas. Dear Ukrainians! All of you feel that the Russian presence on our land is not permanent. I know this.

Ukraine will reclaim its territory and its people. We will not leave anyone to the occupiers. We are using every means to ensure that this war ends with the defeat of the occupiers.

Today, I also participated in the meeting of the College of EU Commissioners, a significant EU institution led by President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen. Step by step, we are moving towards a historic milestone in our relationship with Europe – we are working to open negotiations for Ukraine’s EU membership already this year.

There are significant legislative innovations and necessary steps in building institutions.

In addition to the obvious historical importance for us as a state, the start of negotiations with the EU on membership will also have a substantial practical effect here and now, for all our people and our warriors. Motivation is also a weapon, and it needs to be recharged. We expect this powerful boost for Ukrainian motivation – the readiness on the part of the EU to begin negotiations with Ukraine, the corresponding political decision. I thank all the partners who are working with us to bring this closer.

A few more things.

Today, another Ukrainian-German business forum has started in Germany. The key is that our defense industry, energy, and infrastructure are presented at the forum.

There are good agreements and joint projects. I am grateful to Chancellor Olaf Scholz personally, his government team, and all of German society. Our level of relations and trust between Ukraine and Germany is indeed the highest in all the years of our independence.

We are preparing another significant international meeting regarding the Ukrainian Peace Formula at the level of advisors and special representatives.

It has been almost a year since the points of the Peace Formula were presented. Much has been accomplished in this year, and our Peace Formula is gradually becoming global. Currently, the Office and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs are working on expanding the circle of participants in the meeting, and we already understand that representatives from all continents will be present.

I want to thank everyone in the world who is helping Ukraine get closer to a just peace! Today, I want to specifically acknowledge Denmark. I met with the Danish Minister of Defence. We discussed our further cooperation – the preparation of a new defense support package. Every day, every week, we use to make our country stronger.

Glory to Ukrainian warriors! Glory to our entire nation!

Glory to Ukraine!

Donetsk:

Great teamwork by @SOF_UKR operators and artillery. A notorious russian counter-battery radar system, Zoopark-1, was destroyed in the Donetsk operational direction.

📹: @SOF_UKR pic.twitter.com/AvNsP9EQ4d

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 24, 2023

Russian tank suddenly explodes somewhere in the Donetsk direction. pic.twitter.com/W9vI47yZ0x

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 24, 2023

Avdiivka:

A Ukrainian drone wipes out the lonesome Russian-Soviet flag planted on the Adiivka slag heap.
The height remains a contested zone between combating parties. https://t.co/ykXzqyTDMI

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) October 24, 2023

Here’s a machine translation of the quoted tweet:

The Russians set up their rags on the approaches to the tericon near Avdiivka. But they have already been destroyed.

Terikon is currently in a gray area. The occupiers are on the approaches to it, but cannot gain a foothold. As soon as they try, they die. They put down the rags and ran away.

The Shadow unit took them down with a drone. Let them climb again. And they will die.
Also from drones.

FYI, this is the Avdiivka Coke Coal Plant in 2017.
A real monster, a city of steel, steam, and fire.
It felt super impressive.
Now it's a fortress of war, just like so many of its fellow industrial giants of Donbas that will unfortunately never be manufacturing centers again. pic.twitter.com/jNHYQr1Wuq

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) October 24, 2023

Another Ukrainian city destroyed by Russian bombs. The video shows much of Avdiivka’s city center including Tsentralnyi Ave. (formerly Vulytsya Karla Marksa), which I recognize from Beer Бери shop at the end. Avdiivka has been fought over and under Russian shelling since 2014. https://t.co/pzytQW4QtY

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) October 24, 2023

Avdiivka, Donetsk region
Video by volunteer Bohdan Zuyakov pic.twitter.com/iyu985Bgy5

— Мисливець за зорями (@small10space) October 24, 2023

Tatarigami marks his beliefs to market:

An important aspect of being a decent analyst is the periodic review of one's prior work, retrospectively evaluating its accuracy, pinpointing mistakes, and gaining insight into the reasons behind incorrect conclusions.

In line with this approach, I have revisited some of my… pic.twitter.com/J9wvTeFa2z

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) October 24, 2023

An important aspect of being a decent analyst is the periodic review of one’s prior work, retrospectively evaluating its accuracy, pinpointing mistakes, and gaining insight into the reasons behind incorrect conclusions.

In line with this approach, I have revisited some of my earlier analyses and located inaccurate conclusions. Perhaps the most important error I made was downplaying the probability of a major offensive by the Russian forces by the end of this year.

In the earlier part of this year and during the early fall, I reached the conclusion that Russian forces were engaged in training exercises with reserves, refurbishing units, and replenishing vehicle losses. My assessment at the time was that Russia would preserve an adequate defensive capability, but I failed to foresee their ability to launch an army-level operation by year-end.

While I observed substantial brigade and corps-sized formations, their state of readiness and positions suggested a role as reserves poised to respond to emerging threats rather than serving as an offensive mechanized force. Consequently, I mistakenly concluded that the Russians wouldn’t deploy these units in significant offensive operations. This perspective seemed reasonable to me, especially in the context of the ongoing Ukrainian counter-offensive. My assessment was further reinforced when the Russians initiated their own counter-attack in the Kupyansk direction, where the enemy employed platoon, company, and reinforced company forces for assaults, rather than launching a large-scale, army-level operation.

One of the scenarios I had considered as quite probable was that the Russians would wait until our forces exhausted their offensive capabilities in Robotyne and then counter-attack with company-sized units, with the objective of limiting our gains from the counter-offensive.

Instead, they launched an army-level offensive operation against one of the most fortified and well-defended segments of the frontline, using forces I had mistakenly labeled as response reserves. The results have been roughly in line with what I had expected – shockingly high losses, with a documented count of at least 109 vehicles, each verified by satellite imagery. If you haven’t had the chance to review this data, I strongly recommend doing so. By this time, the actual count is likely closer to 200 vehicles.

Given my anticipation of such significant losses, I had assumed that the Russian command would refrain from launching army-level operations, at least until the following year.

The question that naturally emerges is why they proceeded with this operation despite the foreseen high losses. If I could foresee such losses, it’s reasonable to assume the Russians could as well. This raises the question of whether they have regained sufficient confidence to execute corps and army-level operations against the most challenging defenses, even at the cost of unacceptable casualties. If they had been planning this operation for a considerable duration, as the evidence suggests, it prompts us to consider whether they genuinely think that this is a sustainable approach.

This should serve as a wake-up call for many. Russia is still a significant presence and capable of causing harm. The situation in Avdiivka remains challenging, with the enemy exerting pressure using a large number of vehicles, infantry, and air support. It highlights the necessity for a thorough and meticulous reassessment of the enemy’s capabilities, while also underscoring the critical importance of military aid to Ukraine. This aid is indispensable to ensure that Ukraine possesses the essential resources to stop Russia and liberate occupied territories.

Beryslav, Kherson Oblast:

Russia's intensified airstrikes in the Beryslav region of Kherson oblast pose a grave threat to the 287 children still residing in the area. Mandatory forced evacuation ordered from specific areas. pic.twitter.com/3j0HrAuQpT

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) October 24, 2023

 

For you acquisitions and logistics enthusiasts:

A recent success was to convert redundant US air-to-air AIM-9 Sidewinder missiles into surface-to-air missiles.

“Those missiles were out of operation. We fixed them. We found a way of launching them from the ground. It’s a kind of self-made air defence.”https://t.co/hhwcExanf6

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) October 24, 2023

From The Financial Times:

“We have a huge deficit of ammunition not just in Ukraine but all over the world,” Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal told the Financial Times. “We understand we should produce this here in Ukraine because all around the world it’s finished, it’s depleted. All the warehouses are empty.”

The government was drawing on the lessons of its dramatic increase in domestic drone manufacturing, he said, which is up from “a few dozen last year” to “dozens of thousands” this year. Kyiv was also shifting its budget to concentrate on the “military defence complex”, including air defence and artillery.

But building up a procurement industry for shells, artillery and air defence is a far more complex and ambitious undertaking than for drones, at a time of worldwide shortages of key components and raw materials. One official said they could not quickly transform shell production in the way they did for drones, not least because of the global “shortage of gunpowder”.

Shmyhal was speaking before US president Joe Biden’s call for Congress to approve a multibillion-dollar security package for Ukraine and Israel. That message was a timely morale boost to Kyiv given the sluggish nature of the counteroffensive, prospects of a protracted war and concerns over how America’s febrile politics could undermine its long-term provision of arms and funds.

But 20 months since Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukrainian officials know how essential it is to turbocharge their own industry and innovate at speed.

A recent success was to convert redundant US air-to-air AIM-9 Sidewinder missiles into surface-to-air missiles — an area of critical need given Russia continues to launch attacks on towns far from the front line.

“Those [AIM-9] missiles were out of operation,” said a senior Ukrainian official in reference to a batch of that type supplied to Ukraine. “We fixed them. We found a way of launching them from the ground. It’s a kind of self-made air defence.”

Those repurposed projectiles would help “get us through the winter” when Russia is expected to bombard Ukraine’s energy infrastructure to plunge the country into darkness, the official said, adding that this was not a long-term solution, however.

This was one of a number of such initiatives where they were converting old material deemed redundant by the US military into essential weaponry, the official said. “We have an agreed solution where we take something obsolete and make it something different.”

Asked about the congressional turmoil in Washington where radical Republicans earlier this month rejected funding for Ukraine, Shmyhal conceded “this political shaking inside the USA is a big concern”.

The premier would not be drawn into commenting on the consequences if Donald Trump was re-elected US president next year and ended American support for Ukraine. “These are political challenges for us. Right now many changes are happening among our partners,” he said, also alluding to EU elections in June.

But Shmyhal insisted Kyiv remained confident in the Biden administration’s long-term pledges of support and in the continuing backing of the American people.

Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister for innovation and digital transformation, said the drone revolution he oversaw was enabled by opening up the traditionally state-run industry. That same shift to the free market was essential if Ukraine was to develop a munitions industry, he added.

“We’ve revolutionised the bureaucracy [for drones],” he said, citing tax cuts for drone companies and the removal of duties on components.

The state had to “turn into a venture investor”, he said, removing its monopoly on weapons production and creating “the best conditions in the world for entrepreneurs”.

Fedorov’s latest focus is on first-person view (FPV) drones, which allow the controller to see what the drone camera is seeing. Ukraine has increased the production of FPV drones a thousand-fold in the past year, he said, via a collaboration with the private sector. “Now a large number of factories are opening” to manufacture ammunition for FPV drones, he added.

As for the unstated but prevalent concern in Kyiv that US weapons supplies will slow down, Kamyshin said America’s arms industry and military would always want to work closely with Ukraine.

“They have seen how creative and how good we are in making things work faster and well. So if you take something that is broken and give it to Ukrainians they will not just make it work, they will make it work better. People will always like to do business with this kind of engineer.”

More at the link.

The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) has a new report on what Ukraine must do to prepare for the upcoming winter combat season.

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1716726519291117650

The Center for European Policy Analysis also has a new report on why the costs of abandoning Ukraine would be exorbitant.

“Helping Ukraine win this war, and then the peace,is the best investment NATO & its allies can make in their own defense. The West might be paying a high price in terms of treasure, but Ukraine is paying a much higher price in blood.” ⁦@cepa⁩ https://t.co/gTyLN8bWyo

— Mick Ryan, AM (@WarintheFuture) October 24, 2023

That’s enough for tonight.

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Meet Alpha, the dog who also brings 🇺🇦 victory closer.

📸: @georgian_legion pic.twitter.com/JmcS77qCpU

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 24, 2023

https://twitter.com/georgian_legion/status/1716468158645637436

Open thread!