The world’s attention to Ukraine, to defending freedom and international law must be upheld – address of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

23 October 2023 – 20:24

I wish you good health, dear Ukrainians!

A brief report for the day.

I held a meeting of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief’s Staff. The matter, in fact, is only one – the situation in all our fronts.

The front in Avdiyivka… I’m especially grateful to the warriors on this front! Resilience there is a strength for all of Ukraine right now. Maryinka, other directions in Donetsk region. Lyman. Kupiansk. Thank you, warriors!

Separately – the south. Zaporizhzhia region, Kherson and the region, Odesa…

Of course, our state border – east, north. Strengthening the border.

Supply of ammunition to the frontline, including our own supply, Ukrainian production. I thank all enterprises, all workers who contribute to Ukraine’s results – a constant increase in our arms and ammunition production.

I held a meeting regarding the international events and negotiations being prepared by our state for the near future. Tomorrow, in particular, the Crimea Platform, its parliamentary dimension. The world’s attention to Ukraine, to defending freedom and international law, must be upheld – we will do everything for this.

I spoke with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia – a meaningful conversation. Our bilateral relations and relations with the Gulf. The Peace Formula – I invited Saudi Arabia to participate in a meeting in Malta that is being prepared, and I thanked for the significant role in bringing the Global Peace Summit closer.

Of course, we discussed the situation in the Middle East. The main thing is to save as many civilian lives as possible and prevent both a humanitarian catastrophe and the escalation of a wider war.

One more thing.

I want to particularly honor our National Guard warriors today. Those whose courage deserves to be known by all Ukrainians.

The 4th Operational Brigade. Soldier Andriy Martynenko and Senior Soldier Anatoliy Trokhymenko.

The 5th Separate Slobozhanska Brigade. Junior Sergeant Yuriy Posternak and Lieutenant Daniil Lohvynenko.

The 12th Special Purpose Brigade. Soldier Yehor Hriadovkin and Junior Sergeant Rostyslav Romanovsky.

The 14th Operational Brigade. Senior Soldier Orest Kuznetsov and Junior Sergeant Serhiy Matviychuk.

Thank you, guys, and all your comrades! Glory to everyone who fights and works for Ukraine, for our people, for our freedom!

Thanks to everyone in the world who is helping!

Glory to Ukraine!

Avdiivka:

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1716459963642454261

Tatarigami has a new report on Russian losses in Avdiivka. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App.

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1716492677875748978

2/ The actual count of destroyed vehicles is notably higher. We excluded about a dozen vehicles with low to medium confidence due to inconsistent imagery coverage. In some cases, it was impossible to determine if a vehicle had remained in place for a while or was in motion

3/ All new lost vehicles are indicated by a red square on the imagery, while old losses that were already present at the end of September are marked with a white square.

4/ The overwhelming majority of losses were primarily Armored Fighting Vehicles, including BMP-1 and BMP-2 of various configurations, T-72, T-64, and T-80 tanks in different variations, MT-LB, BTRs, and transport vehicles. In total, these losses amount to 109 vehicles.

5/ The operation’s scale and the involvement of multiple brigades strongly indicate that it is being conducted at the army level. We also see some evidence about additional reinforcements being deployed to the Avdiivka area, but further details cannot be disclosed at this time.

6/ Despite reports of old equipment use, our team identified a significant presence of modern vehicles and equipment in coordinated battalion-level assaults, further underscoring the operation’s importance for Russian command.

7/ Upon analyzing the initial phase, our team concluded it was a long-planned, not a reactionary, operation. The observed patterns suggest Russians invested substantial time and resources, expecting significant losses to achieve their objective

8/ Despite large losses, the enemy persisted in employing more mechanized forces to develop the limited success they had achieved, with the aim of securing dominant positions, disrupting logistics, and controlling waste heaps.

9/ The Russian vehicle losses have now surpassed those incurred during the Siversky Donets crossing in 2022. It’s likely that these losses have already exceeded or will surpass the vehicle losses sustained by the Russians in the Vuheldar area between November 2022 and April 2023.

10/ Two independent sources on the ground estimate Russian vehicle losses at around 200. Our current assessment is primarily focused on geospatial evidence, hence, we have chosen not to include this number, as we currently lack supporting satellite imagery for it.

11/ However, the situation is far from stable. Russian forces continue to extensively use guided air-dropped bombs and artillery strikes, along with deploying LMUR (Light Multipurpose Guided Rockets). Multiple indicators point to active efforts to sustain the operation.

12/ In conclusion, we want to emphasize several key points. This army-level operation, conducted through battalion or battalion-tactical groups, signifies not only the gravity of the operation but also shows an attempt to shift the strategic initiative to the Russian side.

13/ The sustainability of these losses is in question, although this approach mirrors what we’ve observed in previous battles like Mariupol, Vuhledar, and Bakhmut when the Russians committed significant human and material resources and were willing to accept enormous losses

14/ The operation originally aimed for a faster outcome and the advancement of Avdiivka through its flanks, but the resistance and skills exhibited by Ukrainian defenders have proven to be far more formidable than the Russians had anticipated in their plans.

15/ To access the complete set of imagery, additional information, and a detailed methodology for this assessment, please visit our website:

frontelligence.substack.com/p/avdiivka-rus…

Avdiivka: Russian Losses from October 10th to October 20thGeospatial Vehicle Loss Assessmenthttps://frontelligence.substack.com/p/avdiivka-russian-losses-from-october

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1716361754546995456

This is a helpful report by the Ukrainian journalist Butusov on the battle of Avdiivka as of late 22 October. It goes over the military formations involved in the battle from both sides and touches upon the current situation. In short, Ukrainian forces withstood what no one else could and held the main defence line, inflicting major losses on the Russian formations, but at a high price. Russian army is still involved with this campaign and will likely continue the pursuit to take Avdiivka.
https://t.me/ButusovPlus/5754

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1716367618188194133

Russian serviceman Dmitry Filatov known as Vozhak Z on Telegram says that Russian soldiers who rotate from Avdiivka return with “empty, icey eyes” after heavy battles. He also says the Avdiivka strongpoint is hidden underground, and little Ukrainian activity is noticed on the surface.
https://t.me/vozhak_Z/465

Here’s the screen grab of Dmitri’s English translation:

Kharkiv:

https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1716564442840703045

Sweden is closer to joining NATO:

https://twitter.com/FT/status/1716560181796987157

For you enthusiasts of Russian military equipment going boom:

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1716433539212918826

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1716489659172245520

Chatham House has just published a new report about Russia’s military vulnerabilities. Here’s the abstract:

• This paper draws preliminary conclusions about Russia’s warfighting capabilities based on the 12 months since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
• The first year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has exposed key aspects of Russian ground capabilities, several of which the Russian military had itself previously observed but did not successfully address. It is important to separate the consequences of Russia’s poor choices in this war from systemic Russian weaknesses – but those same systemic weaknesses will preclude Russian forces from quickly and effectively rectifying their mistakes.
• The threats to Western airpower, and therefore to the viability of NATO’s conventional deterrence strategy against Russia, have always been Russia’s ground-based integrated air defence system (IADS) and long-range precision strike capabilities. Both of those have performed broadly as expected in Ukraine.
• Western sanctions must be better adapted to the nature of the maritime industry: many systems – such as propulsion, sensors and navigation – are still classed as civilian items under the current set of export restrictions.
• There is still no significant evidence that Russia is trying to reconsider its basic approach towards electronic warfare (EW). Moreover, known EW exercises in 2022–23 focused solely on the tactical defence of frontline positions and command points from adversary units, reconnaissance, and combat unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and loitering munitions.
• US and NATO defence planners should pay close attention to how adversaries like Russia and possibly China develop and use artificial intelligence (AI) to augment their advantage in mass – the ability to mass firepower and manpower to overwhelm the adversary – as well as exploring what types of existing and new defences can be effective against such developments.
• Making the Kremlin fail faster on the battlefield is the most effective way to penetrate and disrupt the Russian information space and exacerbate the damage control burden on the Kremlin, as battlefield setbacks will increase the perception–reality gap that the Kremlin’s information operations must bridge. The Kremlin cannot pivot rapidly in the information space, but a reprieve on the battlefield provides an opportunity for the Kremlin to adapt its narratives and leverage its ability to manipulate perceptions.

And here’s the link to the pdf of the full report.

Ukrainska Pravda has published a profile and interview with the Ukrainian grandmother who told the Russians exactly where they could go. Here are some excerpts:

There’s a flip side to Ukrainian hospitality. The uninvited guests who entered Ukraine in tanks were expecting to be greeted with flowers and the traditional bread and salt. Instead, they got curses, Molotov cocktails, bullets and Javelins.

What happened on 25 February 2022 in Myhalky, a village 80 km northwest of the capital, will go down in history as a textbook example of a psyop and non-violent civil resistance. The day after the invasion, when Ukraine’s future was looking bleak, a photograph of a placard at a bus stop began to circulate on social media, and in the mainstream media too.

Someone had written, in a language the Russians could understand: “F**k off out of Ukraine and our village, you bastards!” It was signed “Baba (Granny) Nadia”.

The Russians never got as far as Myhalky. A few kilometres from the village, they were stopped by the Armed Forces of Ukraine and an ancient forest. “And by Baba Nadia’s message,” one of the locals adds.

The image created by this courageous lady, whose identity the media never revealed, instantly became a meme. A Baba Nadia account appeared on Instagram. And Myhalky’s message to the Russians was printed on confectionery labels, T-shirts and sweatshirts.

Who is Baba Nadia, and does she even exist? Ukrainska Pravda reporters went to Myhalky, where they found answers to all their questions.

“There’s a Nadia who lives in the alley”

The bus shelter in the photograph doesn’t have the placard or the “Myhalky” sign on it any more, but there are other features it can be identified by: its left-hand wall is painted in the colours of the Ukrainian flag, and behind it is a field and an abundance of pine trees.

In February 2022, cars full of women, children and pets were driving along this road that passes through the village and goes on to Radomyshl and Zhytomyr, driving past Baba Nadia’s message to the Russians.

“Good afternoon!” we call out to an elderly lady on Shevchenko Street. “We’re journalists from Kyiv looking for your Baba Nadia. Is your name Nadia?”

“I’m Hanna,” the pensioner answers. “Hanna Fedorivna. You want to know who Baba Nadia is? I don’t know. I can’t tell you. I don’t know, honestly! (she laughs).

I saw this woman on TV who gave the katsaps [Russians – ed.] pies that had rat poison in. But I didn’t see that placard because I rarely leave the house. People told me there was one…”

“Well, do you stand in solidarity with Baba Nadia at least?” we ask.

“Of course,” Hanna Fedorivna says. She starts to cry. “If I had the strength and the will, I’d strangle some of them myself. So much tragedy they’ve caused! But I live in hope. I believe in God, I believe in victory. Ukraine will never surrender, that will never happen!”

“I don’t know where Baba Nadia is,” a man standing near his fence says without missing a beat. “Maybe one of the young people wrote it. Ask the starosta (the village head), or go to Piskivka.” [Myhalky is part of the Piskivka hromada – UP.]

“Baba Nadia, Baba Nadia, Baba Nadia,” another local, Yurii Herasymenko, says, trying to remember. “There’s one who lives in the alley. But she wasn’t in the village when that placard appeared.”

When we asked where we should look for the heroic Baba Nadia, one of the assistants gladly enlightens us, beaming happily: “At school, in lessons. She’s a maths teacher. In fact, her name is Tetiana Mykolaivna. She’s a first-rate teacher – a young lady. Well, I say young – she’s the same age as me. I’ll call her now. She’s a good friend of mine.”

“Wait, she’s going to come here and tell you everything,” the shop assistant says as she returns from the utility room after a short phone call. “But she’s going to kill me because I didn’t warn her.

She’s nervous now. She asked: ‘What happened? What happened?’ I told her: ‘Just come straight to the shop after school!’”

“The war will end and we’ll go back to being polite”

Tetiana Mykolaivna Shevchenko was born in 1971. She’s forward-thinking and full of energy. The very woman of whom someone wrote on Facebook in February 2022: “Today, all of us Ukrainian women are Baba Nadia.”

The author of that epic message to the Russians radiates optimism even today. When you talk to her, you’re constantly thinking: Ukrainian children don’t have enough teachers like this.

“Um, I feel very ashamed of those words,” Tetiana immediately warns us. “You know, a teacher using foul language. But it was appropriate at that moment. It was a message in a language the Russians would understand. I wanted to do something harmful to them that day.

We talked about this with the kids last year: some words are obscene, but there’s a time and a place for everything,” “Baba Nadia” continues. I say jokingly: “The war will end and we’ll all go back to being polite again. Because Ukrainians don’t have words like that in our vocabulary.”

24 February 2022 started the same way for Tetiana as it did for everyone else. Someone wrote in the school chat: “Children are to stay at home with their parents until further notice.”

“Everything froze here,” Tetiana recalls. “We’d watch the news and scroll through Telegram. The first thing that struck me was our guys from Zmiinyi (Snake) Island, who so bravely and boldly told that Russian warship where to go. They did it with the kind of humour that’s always been characteristic of the Cossacks – they’re jokers.”

“It was being reported everywhere that they’d all been killed,” Tetiana goes on. “That struck me. They knew what the outcome would be, but they had no fear.

I thought, well, we, the people of Myhalky, could do that just as well. We’d tell the Russians where to go as well once they got here.”

Tetiana made the placard from materials and paint that were left over from the renovation of her house.

“Baba Nadia” carried the wooden frame structure, which only looks light in the famous photo, to the bus stop with her friend, primary school teacher Yuliia Ivanitska.

Tetiana took a picture of the message and posted it as a comment on the Ukrainian General Staff’s Facebook page. It then went viral on social media and got into the mainstream media.

“Why Baba Nadia?” we ask the author of this manifesto. “Is that someone in your family?”

“Yes, it’s my grandmother. Thank God she didn’t live to see such sad times, with Russia attacking us, tearing us to shreds. My grandmother lived near here, in the Malyn district of Zhytomyr Oblast. She loved Ukraine. So did my father.

I also put a second meaning in this message – hope [the meaning of the name Nadiia – ed.]. After all, we hope that victory will be ours. We are waiting for it and working to help it come as soon as possible.”

Much more at the link!

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There is a new slideshow at Patron’s official TikTok. Those don’t embed here, so if you want to see it here’s the link.

Open thread!