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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

The National Guard is not Batman.

“They all knew.”

They spent the last eight months firing professionals and replacing them with ideologues.

A democracy can’t function when people can’t distinguish facts from lies.

Let me file that under fuck it.

We still have time to mess this up!

You can’t attract Republican voters. You can only out organize them.

Bad people in a position to do bad things will do bad things because they are bad people. End of story.

Proof that we need a blogger ethics panel.

If you can’t control your emotions, someone else will.

Something needs to be done about our bogus SCOTUS.

If senate republicans had any shame, they’d die of it.

That meeting sounds like a shotgun wedding between a shitshow and a clusterfuck.

Polls are now a reliable indicator of what corporate Republicans want us to think.

There is no compromise when it comes to body autonomy. You either have it or you do not.

I swear, each month of 2025 will have its own history degree.

If ‘weird’ was the finish line, they ran through the tape and kept running.

The low info voters probably won’t even notice or remember by their next lap around the goldfish bowl.

To the privileged, equality seems like oppression.

And now I have baud making fun of me. this day can’t get worse.

Usually wrong but never in doubt

One of our two political parties is a cult whose leader admires Vladimir Putin.

Fundamental belief of white supremacy: white people are presumed innocent, minorities are presumed guilty.

Speaking of republicans, is there a way for a political party to declare intellectual bankruptcy?

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Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

Open Threads

You are here: Home / Archives for Open Threads

Late Night Open Thread: Animals Going Their Own Way

by Anne Laurie|  October 26, 20232:22 am| 51 Comments

This post is in: Nature & Respite, Open Threads, Pet Blogging

This cat has very clear logic. I m shocked pic.twitter.com/CDAhccumFE

— place where cat shouldn't be (@catshouldnt) October 19, 2023

I told you the little bastid was too clever for his own good!…

cat burglar
pic.twitter.com/8XPopV2rl5

— cats being weird little guys (@weirdlilguys) October 12, 2023

For the xeriscapists:

If you have to have golf courses in Arizona (a point I don't concede) they should consist entirely of cactus beds, rattlesnake dens, and large overhangs from mesas that have been rigged with explosives by a coyote.

— Pinboard (@Pinboard) October 25, 2023

Late Night Open Thread: Animals Going Their Own WayPost + Comments (51)

So We Got a New Dog Today

by John Cole|  October 25, 202310:18 pm| 74 Comments

This post is in: John Cole Presents "This Fucking Old House", Open Threads

So We Got a New Dog Today 1

Everyone say hi to Jack!

Joelle got him today. Her friend was walking him for an older lady who was in declining health, and now is to the point she can no longer take care of herself, so the friend mentioned it to Joelle in passing and she said “I’ll take him.”

And so she did. Not sure what he is, but maybe some heeler. At any rate he is 13 and has bad hips and arthritis, but Joelle has stated he is super obedient.

In other news I had a small lesion/skin tag on the corner of my eye that had slowly grown over 20+ years to the point it was blocking my tear duct and I was getting dry-eyed. Got numbed up, had it snipped off (tiny thing, really), and this morning it looked like I went ten rounds with Tyson.

See the Republicans finally decided which scumbag best represents them. That should be fun to watch.

So We Got a New Dog TodayPost + Comments (74)

War for Ukraine Day 609: The New Speaker Opposes Supporting Ukraine’s Defense Against Russia’s Genocidal Re-invasion

by Adam L Silverman|  October 25, 20239:13 pm| 48 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Art by NEIVANMADE of a Ukrainian painted black and outlined in blood red kneeling in grief with hands covering the face surrounded by the bodies of Ukrainians killed by Russians on a grey background. "Russia Is Committing Genocide Right Now" is across the top center of the image.

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

There is a long list of reasons to be concerned with the newly elected Speaker of the House, but for the Ukrainians the only one that matters is that he opposes providing Ukraine aid for its defense against Russia’s genocidal re-invasion.

In May 2022, Johnson voted against a $40 billion aid package to Ukraine. He said at the time: "We should not be sending another $40 billion abroad when our own border is in chaos, American mothers are struggling to find baby formula, gas prices are at record highs, and American…

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) October 25, 2023

⚡️Mike Johnson (R-LA) is elected as the new Speaker of the House. Every House Republican voted for him. Here is Johnson's voting record on Ukraine, by @GOP4Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/Haep7GvukT

— Ostap Yarysh (@OstapYarysh) October 25, 2023

In May 2022, Johnson voted against a $40 billion aid package to Ukraine. He said at the time: “We should not be sending another $40 billion abroad when our own border is in chaos, American mothers are struggling to find baby formula, gas prices are at record highs, and American families are struggling to make ends meet, without sufficient oversight over where the money will go.”

Expect a government shutdown in mid-November. The play will be that the House will pass its twelve appropriations bills. They will be full of the House Freedom Caucus wishlist items: cuts to Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, defunding any and all Federal investigations and prosecutions into Trump, DOD programs to increase the diversity of the force and make it look like America will be defunded as will the program to cover the costs of travel for reproductive health care for female uniformed personnel, and no aid to Ukraine. They will pass the appropriations bills, send them to the Senate at the last possible minute before the Thanksgiving recess, announced they’ve done the government’s business and funded the government for the fiscal year, and leave for the extended holiday break. This is known as jamming the Senate. The intention is to be able to claim and get news coverage for their claim that they passed the appropriations to fund the government, but the Democratic Senate refuses to pass it and President Biden will veto it even if they do. Thereby getting the media to chase the controversy and the Democrats to get the blame for a government shutdown. And while this will be bad, it also means that Ukraine isn’t going to get any more funding from the US anytime soon.

This is what happens when you do not quickly and effectively move against elected and appointed officials who were involved in planning and leading a coup to overthrow the constitutional order. Instead of being quickly prosecuted and punished they wind up amassing greater power.

Other allies will have to step up.

Australia is providing a further $20 million package of military assistance to Ukraine, which includes de-mining equipment, portable x-ray machines, a 3D metal printer, and counter drone systems.
 
Grateful to Minister @RichardMarlesMP and the Australian people for remaining… pic.twitter.com/t3aj1mHep8

— Rustem Umerov (@rustem_umerov) October 25, 2023

Australia is providing a further $20 million package of military assistance to Ukraine, which includes de-mining equipment, portable x-ray machines, a 3D metal printer, and counter drone systems.

Grateful to Minister @RichardMarlesMP
and the Australian people for remaining steadfast in supporting Ukraine.

Together, to victory 🇺🇦🤝🇦🇺

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

Every Russian strike is an argument that pressure on the terrorist state is insufficient – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

25 October 2023 – 19:46

Dear Ukrainians,

Report for this day.

Khmelnytsky region, the city of Slavuta. The assessment of the damage caused by the explosion of Russian drones last night is ongoing. The Shaheds were shot down, but many buildings have sustained damage – shattered windows, doors, roofs of the buildings.

It is highly likely that the target for these drones was the Khmelnytsky nuclear power plant – the shockwave from the explosion shattered windows, including those on the territory of the NPP. As of now, it is known that around twenty local residents have been injured. All necessary assistance has been provided to them.

This strike towards the NPP is another reminder to all our partners of how important it is to strengthen Ukraine’s air defense and how dangerous it can be when Russia can bypass international sanctions. Many components in the attack drones used by Russian terrorists, as well as in their missiles, originate from various countries, various companies, including Western ones. The effectiveness of sanctions against Russia is literally a defense against terrorism.

Tomorrow, I have the European Council meeting in my schedule, at the level of EU leaders. Among other topics, I will specifically discuss this: sanctions against Russia need to be expanded and strengthened. Every Russian strike, especially ones as audacious as those targeting nuclear plants and other critical facilities, is an argument that the pressure on the terrorist state is insufficient.

Today, there was an important video conference – involving the military, intelligence, and government officials. Among the notable points is the occupier’s reaction to the new capabilities of our warriors.

After our troops struck the airfields in Berdiansk and Luhansk, we see that the occupiers are relocating their aviation further. Specifically, they are attempting to redeploy it from the territory of our Crimea. This is a good sign. First, the Russian fleet flees, and now Russian aviation is fleeing. The habit of running will be very useful for Russia. Because they will have to flee all our land. Without exceptions. And I thank everyone in the world who helps us become stronger and achieve greater goals. And I thank our warriors for their accuracy.

I held a meeting with our international partners regarding key countries in the Global South and our relations with them. We continue to prepare for the Peace Formula meeting, working at all diplomatic levels. The substance of the meeting is essentially ready, and we are now fine-tuning the list of participants.

It is very important that in the relevant negotiations, we see unwavering attention to Ukraine and the need to end this war – to end it justly and fairly. This attention exists on different continents. And I am grateful to all the countries that have already confirmed their participation and the level of their representation at the Peace Formula meeting.

One more thing.

Throughout the day, I was in contact with our commanders and those responsible for providing our defense and offensive operations. Ammunition, weapons, equipment. Domestic production. Supporting our warriors. We are preparing for the expansion of the geography of supplies to Ukraine from our partners. We will complete this marathon and achieve our victory. The key is to add strength to Ukraine, our state, and our people every day.

Glory to Ukraine!

President @ZelenskyyUA
Security is the main target for russia. Both within our country and across Europe, as well as in the free world as a whole. Undermining security, bringing death and chaos – these are the actions of the state-terrorist.

I thank everyone around the world who… pic.twitter.com/75Y8Lk2ZKd

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 25, 2023

President @ZelenskyyUA

Security is the main target for russia. Both within our country and across Europe, as well as in the free world as a whole. Undermining security, bringing death and chaos – these are the actions of the state-terrorist.

I thank everyone around the world who stands with Ukraine. Together, we are moving closer to a just peace!

The reason:

Today, we are fighting for the future of our children.

📹: @United24media pic.twitter.com/7xYIViqNGn

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 25, 2023

Avdiivka:

Russia is intensifying its attacks on Kupiansk and Avdiivka. Fighting is intense and close-quarters, but Ukrainian forces are resolutely holding their positions. Russia may be attempting to capture Kupiansk, possibly to divert forces from other directions or seeking retribution… pic.twitter.com/w8SqnqvyjD

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) October 25, 2023

Russia is intensifying its attacks on Kupiansk and Avdiivka. Fighting is intense and close-quarters, but Ukrainian forces are resolutely holding their positions. Russia may be attempting to capture Kupiansk, possibly to divert forces from other directions or seeking retribution for prior humiliating losses.

 

Footage of the Russian tank group attempting to cross the railway north of Krasnohorivka, in the Avdiivka frontline. Commentary:

"A video of the 1st OTBr emerged where you can see the movement of the column through the railway. However, it was stopped.
Despite the total… pic.twitter.com/4ScX1Rcpi6

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) October 24, 2023

Footage of the Russian tank group attempting to cross the railway north of Krasnohorivka, in the Avdiivka frontline. Commentary:

“A video of the 1st OTBr emerged where you can see the movement of the column through the railway. However, it was stopped.
Despite the total superiority of the Russians, the Defense Forces continue to restrain the enemy, who have set the goal of capturing Avdiivka in the near future. Experience shows that they will have no chance to break through with vehicles. Instead, they can simply release a couple of hundred “chaotic foot soldiers”, as was the case west of Krasnohorivka. The tactics of the Soviet army in all its glory…]”

https://t.me/DonbassYasinovatayanaliniiOgnia/45160

https://twitter.com/TonyaLevchuk/status/1717158589725302984

Avdiivka Update (please note that the situation might have evolved by the time of your reading):

The situation remains difficult, with ongoing Russian pressure on both the flanks and the town of Avdiivka itself. While neither side holds complete control over the Waste Heap,… pic.twitter.com/fgVj3F6PUB

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) October 25, 2023

Avdiivka Update (please note that the situation might have evolved by the time of your reading):

The situation remains difficult, with ongoing Russian pressure on both the flanks and the town of Avdiivka itself. While neither side holds complete control over the Waste Heap, Russian forces have managed to achieve access to it and can make occasional/temporary use of this position.

Russian forces have been heavily utilizing air-dropped bombs and guided air-dropped bombs, resulting in significant damage to structures within Avdiivka, including civilian infrastructure.

Satellite imagery shows a concentration of heavy artillery shelling to the north of Avdiivka, in close proximity to the heap, suggesting sustained pressure on defenders.

Here are the images for comparative analysis. The images are from October 15th and October 25th:

October 15

Despite Russian denials, mounting losses are becoming increasingly evident. These losses have been corroborated by drone footage, geolocation efforts by volunteers, and satellite imagery.

In this specific area to the west of Krasnohorivka, for instance, 16 Russian vehicles were destroyed, damaged, or abandoned.

To sum up, the duration of the enemy’s intent and ability to sustain these high-pressure assaults remains uncertain, despite notable losses in personnel and equipment. Reports suggest a decrease in the number of vehicles employed in assaults, yet the persisting shelling and assaults raise concerns. Russians appear to be making small but incremental progress toward Stepove, even in the face of significant losses in vehicles and personnel.

This advancement could potentially create a dangerous situation, as a foothold in Stepove may enable them to sever the remaining logistical routes to Avdiivka.

While Ukraine has a good chance to repel Russian advances, it would be both unrealistic and naive to claim that the Russians capturing Stepove is an entirely impossible scenario. Ultimately, if the Russians are unable to achieve success, this operation could become one of their most costly campaigns in the second half of 2023.

 

Vuhledar:

Mutilated, completely destroyed houses, destinies, broken and taken away human lives pic.twitter.com/IxFoYtRmnZ

— Мисливець за зорями (@small10space) October 24, 2023

Marinka:

A Russian T-72B3 destroyed, reportedly near Mar'inka. pic.twitter.com/FJoJ48PgBX

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) October 24, 2023

Bilorichenskyi, Luhansk Oblast:

Russians published photos of two ATACMS missile engines. Photos are said to be from Bilorichenskyi area of Luhansk region. Local sources reported about explosions in this area at about 5am last night. pic.twitter.com/MPdq9zhDaa

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 25, 2023

Kherson Oblast:

Location of first tank: south of Krynky (Кринки), Kherson Oblast at 46.72669, 33.14376 https://t.co/to8lCkcSJa @UAControlMap #geoconfirmed @GeoConfirmed
A Russian tank gets destroyed by explosives dropped from a drone of the Birds of Magyar. Turret toss included. pic.twitter.com/gU9oz7KzpT

— blinzka (@blinzka) October 25, 2023

Khelministky Nuclear Power Plant:

Zelensky confirmed Khmelnitsky NPP was targeted in last night's attack. Despite downing all 11 drones, fallen debris caused damage. Approx 2,000 households in Slavuta and Netishyn are without electricity. Russia persists in violating nuclear security norms with total impunity. pic.twitter.com/o53ZtMgSpl

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) October 25, 2023

The Financial Times takes a deep dive into the Russian expatriates who are no returning home after fleeing at the beginning of the war.

One week after Russia invaded Ukraine last year, Egor Gazarov packed his bags.

A fluent English speaker who received an MBA from Insead in Paris and spent the first decade of his career climbing the ranks of Boston Consulting Group and Procter & Gamble, Gazarov left for Armenia to wait out the situation and seek out career opportunities in either the west or Middle East.

Less than six months had passed, however, before he decided to return to Russia, disheartened by the jobs available to someone with his experience.

“I came to understand that actually the job opportunities outside the country are not as good as they could be,” he said in a telephone interview from Moscow.

While hundreds of thousands of Russians left the country last year, some, such as Gazarov, have chosen to return to Moscow — a sign of the degree to which the Kremlin has managed to maintain a vestige of normality in the capital and contain some of the biggest economic shockwaves from the war.

More than 820,000 people have left Russia since February 2022, according to a study by Re:Russia, a website run by exiled academics. That exodus represents one of the biggest waves of emigration from Russia since at least the early 1990s, after the fall of the Soviet Union.

The émigrés include dissidents opposed to the war and upwardly mobile young professionals, such as Gazarov, who left for economic reasons or to escape the draft. Some departed in the initial days and weeks of the full-scale invasion, while others left six months later, when the Kremlin ordered a mass mobilisation of men to fight in Ukraine.

While many dissidents have stayed in the countries to which they fled, some young professionals are choosing to return to Russia, either temporarily or indefinitely, after Vladimir Putin said the Kremlin had no plans for another mass mobilisation. The academics at Re:Russia said it was “highly likely” that some of those who had left Russia to avoid mobilisation had already returned.

Recent turmoil in Israel and Armenia has further complicated matters for the thousands of Russians who had moved to those countries.

More than 35,000 Russians left for Israel last year, according to the Jewish Agency for Israel, the largest Jewish non-profit. Many are staying, and for those planning to return, lawmakers in Moscow have vowed a frosty reception in Siberian prisons.

Armenia, a small republic in the Caucasus traditionally aligned with Moscow, has received more Russians than any other country besides Kazakhstan and Serbia. But after Azerbaijan took back the Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh last month despite Russian peacekeepers stationed there, anti-Russian sentiment has grown.

Emil Kamalov and Ivetta Sergeeva, two researchers at the European University Institute in Florence, have been studying the outflow of Russian émigrés in surveys since the start of the invasion.

Respondents, they noted, were largely highly educated, politically engaged and young, compared with the overall Russian population. Yet more than 15 per cent of those surveyed had returned to Russia — some to settle their affairs, others more permanently.

“It’s definitely not an economic migration in the classical sense,” Sergeeva said. “These are people who have been very competent specialists in Russia and are now losing the money, the status . . . For many people, the quality of life is declining [abroad].”

The Kremlin has seized upon the trend. In June, Putin claimed that half of the Russians who had left since the war broke out had already come back. “I don’t see anything wrong here,” he said.

Other officials have asserted that many chose to return because of hostility and suspicion towards Russian immigrants, citing Czech president Petr Pavel, who called for all Russians living in western countries to be “monitored” by security services, alluding to the much-criticised treatment of the Japanese in the US during the second world war.

Vyacheslav Volodin, chair of the Russian state Duma, or legislative assembly, subsequently claimed that Pavel wanted to put Russian émigrés into “concentration camps”.

“Official propaganda is trying its best to make us believe that [émigrés], especially IT specialists, have returned to Russia en masse,” said Alexandra Arkhipova, a Russian anthropologist.

The reality was more nuanced, she said. “Work is very bad, visas are bad too, so some people come back and some don’t.”

More at the link!

That’s enough for tonight.

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Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 609: The New Speaker Opposes Supporting Ukraine’s Defense Against Russia’s Genocidal Re-invasionPost + Comments (48)

Count Wins, Not Polls?

by WaterGirl|  October 25, 20238:15 pm| 89 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Interesting idea.

An entire slate of MAGA-aligned candidates got blown out last night in a suburban / rural county in **Tennessee** that Donald Trump previously carried by 26 points.

Stop talking polls. Start talking wins.

Wins are stacking up. https://t.co/gCFCmfUzu9

— Fred Wellman (@FPWellman) October 25, 2023

⭐️

Seems like we had some other wins today.  Anyone want to share some wins?

(I am all talked out on our one big loss.)

Open thread

Count Wins, Not Polls?Post + Comments (89)

I’ve Got Nothing But a New Thread

by WaterGirl|  October 25, 20233:15 pm| 227 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

The speaker vote thread is getting long in the tooth.  Here’s a shiny new thread.

I’ve Got Nothing But a New ThreadPost + Comments (227)

House Session (and Speaker Vote Round 4)

by WaterGirl|  October 25, 202312:40 pm| 235 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Here we go.

Open thread.

House Session (and Speaker Vote Round 4)Post + Comments (235)

Ugh. (Open Thread)

by WaterGirl|  October 25, 202310:29 am| 160 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Ugh.  What a disgusting creature.

No, not him.

“Here is Mike Johnson railing against Roe v. Wade, arguing that if women were forced to give birth to more “able-bodied workers,” Republicans wouldn’t try to cut Social Security and Medicare.”

DISGUSTING.  Women are non-persons.

Here is Mike Johnson railing against Roe v. Wade, arguing that if women were forced to give birth to more “able-bodied workers,” Republicans wouldn’t try to cut Social Security and Medicare pic.twitter.com/RN5FPNlvon

— Biden-Harris HQ (@BidenHQ) October 25, 2023

⭐️

Open thread.

Ugh. (Open Thread)Post + Comments (160)

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