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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

I’m starting to think Jesus may have made a mistake saving people with no questions asked.

Republicans got rid of McCarthy. Democrats chose not to save him.

I swear, each month of 2025 will have its own history degree.

Republicans: slavery is when you own me. freedom is when I own you.

Anyone who bans teaching American history has no right to shape America’s future.

Democracy is not a spectator sport.

Their freedom requires your slavery.

Too often we confuse noise with substance. too often we confuse setbacks with defeat.

This blog will pay for itself.

JFC, are there no editors left at that goddamn rag?

Giving in to doom is how authoritarians win.

Shallow, uninformed, and lacking identity

When I was faster i was always behind.

The media handbook says “controversial” is the most negative description that can be used for a Republican.

Shut up, hissy kitty!

Not so fun when the rabbit gets the gun, is it?

Welcome to day five of every-bit-as-bad-as-you-thought-it-would-be.

Our messy unity will be our strength.

Live so that if you miss a day of work people aren’t hoping you’re dead.

Conservatism: there are people the law protects but does not bind and others who the law binds but does not protect.

The republican caucus is covering themselves with something, and it is not glory.

the 10% who apparently lack object permanence

There are a lot more evil idiots than evil geniuses.

Prediction: the gop will rethink its strategy of boycotting future committees.

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Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

Open Threads

You are here: Home / Archives for Open Threads

No Kings – Are You Signed Up for an Event? (Open Thread)

by WaterGirl|  June 4, 20258:14 pm| 53 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Overnight Open Thread: Let The Revolution Begin! 1

So, do you guys think we have a big enough reach that we can get the NO Kings event to be called the “No Kings, TACO Don” Event?

Anybody signed up or planning to attend an event?

Open thread.

No Kings – Are You Signed Up for an Event? (Open Thread)Post + Comments (53)

Who needs health insurance as those tax cuts will stop your heart attack

by David Anderson|  June 4, 20255:24 pm| 48 Comments

This post is in: Anderson On Health Insurance, Open Threads

From CBO:

• 11.8 million lose coverage due to One Big Beautiful Bill provisions

• 16M fewer w/ coverage in 2034 when incorporating the 4.2M expected coverage loss from expiration of enhanced ACA subsidies

That's a 57% ↑ in # of uninsured compared to June 2024 current policy projection

[image or embed]

— Loren Adler (@lorenadler.bsky.social) June 4, 2025 at 3:08 PM

Who needs health insurance as those tax cuts will stop your heart attackPost + Comments (48)

Open Thread: Concerning The Flaghumper’s Parade

by Anne Laurie|  June 4, 20251:02 pm| 69 Comments

This post is in: Military, Open Threads, Trumpery

Auto Draft 137

(Clay Jones via GoComics.com)

 
Good point from Harold Meyerson at the American Prospect:

… Initially, before Trump’s re-election, the festivities were to be chiefly confined to the National Mall. There were to be—are still to be, in fact—soldiers dressed in the garb and carrying the weapons used in all of the nation’s wars, beginning with the Revolution and concluding with I’m not sure what. (Afghanistan? Syria? Yemen? Will there be someone carrying a drone?) Some of those wars were clearly what we call “good wars”—the Civil War and World War II most particularly. (Of course, Pete Hegseth or somebody like him might decide that we need to celebrate the traitors of the Confederacy, too.)…

Does that mean that the passing troops should be applauded or booed depending on which war they’re dressed to recreate? Of course not, since none of the troops doing the recreating, and, for that matter, none of the long-departed troops who really fought those wars had any say in the decisions to start them, much less any say in how they were conducted…

A niche sect that calls itself the Freedom Road Socialist Organization is helping coordinate a demonstration for that day. According to the application for a permit that the coalition submitted to the National Park Service, “A military parade celebrating Trump and the Army is an outrageous insult to the American people. What really makes America great is its working people.”

This requires parsing. The Army’s initial plan was not for a parade at all. Trump’s plan in his first term for a procession of Abrams tanks and Bradley Fighting Vehicles chugging down Constitution Avenue was nixed because the damage such heavy vehicles would do to the road surface would have cost perhaps $90 million. But this time, a parade there will be, due to Trump’s infatuation with such displays, his hostility to D.C. (which apparently extends to its roads), and his thinking it a grand way to reflect and celebrate not so much our power but his. The soldiers doing the marching, however, will be drawn from the very same “working people” whom the protest coalition celebrates. And even if our military, particularly under Trump, may be sent to dubious battles, the soldiers will have no say in that. Besides, this is not only a display of our current prowess but a commemoration of our past deployments, which, as I noted above, have ranged from the heroic (World War II and the Civil War) to the disgraceful (Mexico, the tribes, the Philippines, Vietnam, Iraq, etc.). But in none of these conflicts, both the good and the evil, were the soldiers the ones who decided they should be there.

So any counterdemonstration on June 14 needs to target very carefully, as whatever they do will reflect on the broad American left. I’d suggest focusing on Trump’s potential to start god-awful conflicts. He’s already squandered hundreds of millions of dollars in drones and fighter jets in a senseless slap fight with the Houthis in Yemen. For that matter, he’s resurrected the domestic suppression we saw during World War I without there even being a war on which to hang it (hence, his malign misclassification of Venezuelan refugees and immigrants as an “invasion”). I’d suggest focusing not just on the president but also on the Fox network stooge he placed atop our military. And while there always are generals and admirals whose political beliefs descend straight from Attila’s, the fact is that most of our top officers tried to keep Trump from running amok during his first term, and some of them have yet to be purged today.

So how about: Army, sí; Trump, no! The Army can go either way; with Trump, there is no trajectory but down.

Open Thread: Concerning The Flaghumper’s ParadePost + Comments (69)

Shoot the Horse Open Thread

by WaterGirl|  June 4, 202511:50 am| 121 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Politics

Decades ago, I worked at the University vet school.  I loved it.  I got to see cows hanging out in the field on my way into work in the morning.  I got to see horses and cows walking down the halls of the large animal clinic.  I got to see all manner of small animals in the small animal clinic.

One of the large animal vets had this cartoon on his door.  Two columns:  the ailment on the left, and the treatment on the right.

Colic                  shoot the horse

Broken leg       shoot the horse

and so on.

It seemed kind funny at the time.

I was reminded of that cartoon today every time I read the news.

Joni Ernst                                                                   Everybody dies.

No NOAA staffing at night                                      Everybody dies.

I didn’t know there was a hurricane season.       Everybody dies.

Kidnap an innocent man, put him in danger.      Everybody dies.

Shrug.  Everybody dies.   It might be funny if it wasn’t so fucking senseless and sad.

It’s reminding me of the rebellious bumper sticker about Ma Bell, that someone had made up locally, in the classic blue and white colors.  It said:  “We don’t care.  We don’t have to.”   He put them on every phone company vehicle in the lot overnight.  I’m not really into vandalism, but that was fun.

That’s the motto of this maladministration.

But here’s a prominent person, though probably not powerful, using his voice on the air to speak the truth about the NOAA cuts.

Shoot the Horse Open Thread

In my experience, people trust their weather people on TV, even if they get the weather wrong!  Good on this fellow.  The video is less than 3 minutes.  He’s sticking his neck out, so the least we can do is watch it.

He is modeling this for everyone.

We all need to use our voices in whatever circles where we are trusted.

Open thread.

Shoot the Horse Open ThreadPost + Comments (121)

Oppose the Power Grab (Open Thread)

by Betty Cracker|  June 4, 20257:22 am| 154 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

I meant to post this earlier, but life got in the way: As you’ve probably heard, the Trump admin is trying to make it easier to replace qualified civil servants with MAGA kooks, but we, the public, have an opportunity to push back. Comments on a proposed rule change to reclassify civil servants are open until June 7th. You can comment under your own name or anonymously.

The proposed rule change is from the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) and is misleadingly titled “Improving Performance, Accountability and Responsiveness in the Civil Service.” In plain terms, the right-wing ideologues currently running OPM want to reclassify federal employees so they can fire career civil servants, including scientists, and replace them with Trumpers.

It’s a power grab that is part of the Project 2025 agenda. You can read the rule change proposal here and leave a comment using the tab at the top of that site. There are currently nearly 30K comments, and from my brief perusal of them, I can tell some right-wing outfit did a cattle call because there are numerous identical comments that praise this power grab as a way to end the “Deep State.”

The quacks and ideologues Trump put in charge of federal agencies have already vandalized U.S. scientific leadership and innovation. The damage is done even if the U.S. ultimately rejects the latest insanity and fascism and restores research funding.

To paraphrase someone on Bluesky,* it’s like when an arsonist burns down a forest. You can plant new trees, but you have to nurture them for years, even decades, to replace what was wantonly destroyed. The proposed rule change is another bucket of accelerant for the arsonists.

Anyway, comment if you’re so inclined and have a moment. Every little bit helps.

Open thread!

*ETA: It’s from a Bluesky post from Katie Mack’s account here. 

Oppose the Power Grab (Open Thread)Post + Comments (154)

War for Ukraine Day 1,195: Kerch Bridge Falling Down, Falling Down, Kerch Bridge Falling Day, My Fair Lady

by Adam L Silverman|  June 3, 20259:20 pm| 40 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

It’s been a long day, I’m fried, so I’m just going to run through the basics.

We are going to start with the exciting news about the Kerch Bridge.

🌉/1. Ukraine’s Security Service Hits Crimean Bridge in Underwater Sabotage Operation

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has carried out a new special operation targeting the Crimean Bridge—its third successful strike on the structure, this time using underwater explosives.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) June 3, 2025 at 7:20 AM

/2. The operation, which had been in planning for several months, involved placing explosives on the underwater supports of the bridge. At 4:44 a.m., the first device was detonated. The blast caused significant structural damage to the base of the bridge, using the equivalent of 1,100 kg of TNT.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) June 3, 2025 at 7:22 AM

/3. The bridge is now in a critical condition, according to preliminary assessments.

SBU chief Lieutenant General Vasyl Maliuk personally oversaw and coordinated the operation. He stated that the bridge remains a legitimate military target due to its use by Russian forces for logistical support.

— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) June 3, 2025 at 7:22 AM

/4. Location where SBU planted underwater explosive device on one of the pillars of the Crimean bridge. (45.3092354, 36.5047376)

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) June 3, 2025 at 7:23 AM

/5. Underwater structure of the Crimean bridge.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) June 3, 2025 at 7:25 AM

Remember the definition of a center of gravity from my Sunday night post:

 A center of gravity is defined as:

The source of power that provides moral or physical strength, freedom of action, or will to act. Also called COG.

COGs have the following characteristics:

  • A source of leverage
  • Allows or enhances freedom of movement
  • Can endanger one’s own COGs

Centers of gravity can also be the morale of a state and society, including it’s resilience. It can also be the morale and resilience of a state’s and society’s leadership. The strike on the Kerch Bridge, like the strikes on Russian strategic fixed wing aircraft, is not just negatively affecting Russia’s military or societal freedom of movement, and in the case of the strategic aviation a COG that endangers Ukraine’s own COGs, it is also intended to negatively affect Putin and Russia’s will to act. And in the case of Putin, so enrage him that he makes such a significant mistake that it provides Ukraine with a key opportunity.

I expect we’ll see more strikes as I think it is likely that what we’re seeing are the phases in a phased operation of a larger campaign plan:

Phasing is a way to organize and conduct a complex joint operation in manageable parts. The phases are unique for each operation or campaign as a tool to integrate and synchronize related activities, thereby enhancing C2 to improve flexibility and unity of effort during execution…Phases in a contingency plan are sequential, but during execution there are often some simultaneous and overlapping activities between the phases. In a campaign, a phase can consist of one or more operations in varying scope, scale, and geographic location; while within an operation, a phase normally consists of several subordinate tasks, or a series of related activities. (JP 5-0, Joint Planning, p. IV-37)

Now we wait to see what happens next.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

Russia Remains Fully Committed to War – And They Prove This Commitment of Theirs With Both Their Strikes and Their Statements – All of This Is the Argument for New Sanctions Against Russia – Address by the President

3 June 2025 – 21:14

Dear Ukrainians!

Right now, in the Sumy region, doctors are providing all necessary assistance to those wounded by a Russian strike. Rocket artillery against an ordinary city – the Russians struck right on the street, hitting ordinary residential buildings. Sleazebags. Tragically, four people were killed by this particular strike. My condolences to their families. Nearly 30 people were wounded, including three children. Throughout the day, there were air raid alerts, and there were strikes across almost the entire territory of our state. There have been virtually no days without killings during this whole time, while the United States, Europe, and other global actors have been urging Russia to agree to a ceasefire and negotiations to end the war. Russia remains fully committed to war – and they prove this commitment of theirs with both their strikes and their statements – all of this is the argument for new sanctions against Russia, tough sanctions. I want to thank all Americans, all Europeans who support this approach – the approach of pressuring Russia into peace – and it is extremely important. Putin does not change his behavior when he does not fear the consequences of his actions. Russia must feel what war truly means. Russia must bear the losses from the war. They must really feel that continuing the war will have devastating consequences for them.

Today, I had various meetings regarding our international communications – we are constantly working with our partners to ensure that the killings are stopped and that Ukraine is protected in the future. I gave some instructions today to the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine and the Minister of Defense of Ukraine. Currently, the Ukrainian delegation, led by Yuliia Svyrydenko, the First Deputy Prime Minister, is already working in Washington. Alongside her are Head of my Office Yermak and the teams of the Government and the Office. There are many meetings scheduled for this week. Our goal is to implement as quickly as possible everything agreed upon with President Trump. The cessation of killings, real peace, and economic cooperation with America. We are offering the United States very concrete and mutually beneficial agreements. I thank everyone who is helping.

Today, I held a detailed meeting with our military officials: Oleksandr Syrskyi, Andrii Hnatov, Mykhailo Drapatyi, and Minister of Defense Rustem Umerov. Mykhailo Drapatyi will focus exclusively on combat issues and has been appointed Commander of the Joint Forces – so that he can concentrate on the front one hundred percent. As for the Land Forces system, especially tasks like training, preparation, changes in the Territorial Centers of Recruitment, and everything related to this – another person will handle that. Today, we also approved the appointment of Oleh Apostol as Commander of the Air Assault Forces, and Robert Brovdi as Commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces. This also means a greater focus on combat issues. The successful experience of the best brigades must be scaled across the entire army. Vadym Sukharevskyi was appointed Deputy Commander of the Operational Command East, and his primary task is the modernization of this command. Ihor Skybiuk was appointed Deputy Chief of the General Staff.

And a few more things.

Today, I met with Rafael Grossi, the Director General of the IAEA. We talked about the obvious security challenges created by the Russian occupation – specifically the situation at the Zaporizhzhia NPP. We are doing everything possible to prevent any radiation or other incidents. Unfortunately, the Russian occupation has created problems the world had never faced before. I thank everyone in the world who, despite everything, is helping us keep this situation within safety limits. And no matter how difficult it is, we must restore normal Ukrainian control over the plant. We also discussed Ukraine’s energy sector, particularly our nuclear generation. I am grateful for the willingness to assist with completing our Khmelnytskyi NPP and developing uranium extraction in Ukraine.

Also today, together with Olena, we met with wonderful Ukrainian children and presented them our new award – the state award “Future of Ukraine.” It is specifically intended for children – children who saved someone else’s life, who help defend Ukraine, who have shown such personal strength and determination that it’s hard to believe they are just children. Today, the first 20 awards were given. And may this become our national tradition. We are doing everything for Ukraine. We are proud of our people. We thank everyone who is helping.

And it is always a pleasure to give special thanks to the Security Service of Ukraine – well done!

Glory to Ukraine!

Georgia:

Day 188 of nonstop nationwide protests in Georgia. ✅🇬🇪✊

📷 Mo Se

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) June 3, 2025 at 2:55 PM

In Georgia, there’s no economic resources for a self-sustained dictatorship. Any and all undemocratic rule in Georgia will have to have existential backing from other autocracies such as Russia, China, Iran.

This is why democracy in Georgia is non-negotiable to American and European interests. 1/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) June 3, 2025 at 6:28 PM

And the Georgian Dream wants some recognition and legitimacy from the United States only until they have redirected all pillars and channels of survival toward Russia and China. After that, it will be outright hostile to the entire West, and the United States first and foremost. 2/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) June 3, 2025 at 6:28 PM

That’s why we need all the increasingly working targeted sanctions & non-engagement with the regime, in addition to aiding civil society & calls for new, free & fair Parliamentary elections. Deal them heavy blows until it’s too late in terms of their economic adjustment & regime consolidation. 3/3.

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) June 3, 2025 at 6:28 PM

Georgian journalist Gela Mtivlishvili says he suffered a heart attack from all the stress. When he tried to pay the hospital bill, he discovered his assets were frozen by the state.

Georgia is running out of time. Independent media is getting strangled.

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) June 3, 2025 at 4:06 PM

Remember 20-year-old student Tatia Apriamashvili—jailed 12 days for shouting “Down with the Russian Empire” and “Freedom to political prisoners” at self-proclaimed MP Lashkhi?

Activists say she’s been denied a shower for 5 days. No window, no fresh air, no TV, filthy conditions.

📷: Publika

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) June 3, 2025 at 3:30 PM

20-year-old Tatia Apriamashvili whose only crime is crying out “Down with Russia’s rotten Empire” and “Down with Russia’s slaves” to regime MP Mariam Laskhi,

Is at Dighomi detention center which is profound for lack of hygiene. 1/

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) June 3, 2025 at 3:16 PM

In addition, she has no access to shower for 5 days; only a tiny window; no TV (unlike other detention centers);

Think of this when inviting Mariam to conferences abroad. 2/2.

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) June 3, 2025 at 3:16 PM

⭕️ Lasha Bugadze began his speech at the @europarl.europa.eu with a story from 1937, based on his grandmother’s memories, and then moved on to the recent police search of activist Mariam Bajelidze’s home.

Acc/to Bugadze, the repressive policies of GD have “revived the trauma of the 1930s terror”

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— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) June 3, 2025 at 11:08 AM

🗣️ “And today, as a journalist, I must say loudly, clearly – once again: Freedom for Mzia Amaglobeli”, – Journalist Beka Korshia addressed the @europarl.europa.eu.

#FreeMzia
#RepressionInGeorgia

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— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) June 3, 2025 at 11:41 AM

🗣️ In one of the letters that my brother sent me, he said: “we sacrificed our freedom for the freedom of our country, and we will not back down; and we are not going anywhere”, – Ketuna Kerashvili – sister of Irakli Kerashvili, a doctor arrested during pro-European protests – to @europarl.europa.eu.

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— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) June 3, 2025 at 12:14 PM

Speaking on how the EU can support the Georgian people, MEP @nachosamor.bsky.social emphasized the need for personal sanctions during the Subcommittee on Human Rights’ extraordinary meeting, following the DROI delegation’s visit to #Georgia.

#GeorgiaProtests
#RepressionInGeorgia
@europarl.europa.eu

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— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) June 3, 2025 at 12:42 PM

“The sticks and carrots with the current regime don’t work,” – MEP @rjukneviciene.bsky.social about Georgia.

She also addressed the crackdown on independent media and mentioned Mzia Amaglobeli expressing support for an urgent resolution about her at the next plenary session.
#RepressionInGeorgia

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— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) June 3, 2025 at 1:09 PM

Link: ifact.ge/en/how-sanct…

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) June 3, 2025 at 8:22 AM

From iFact:

Despite sweeping Western sanctions on Russia following its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, European-made trucks—including models from Volvo, MAN, Mercedes, and Scania—continue to appear on Russian roads. A detailed investigation by iFact reveals how these vehicles, officially banned from the Russian market, are still finding their way into the country through complex re-export schemes involving Georgia and its regional neighbours.

In this article, you will find numerous facts, data, and evidence on how Russian companies utilize Georgia to receive sanctioned cargo, specifically trucks in this case. If you follow us and read our articles, the fact that Georgia participates in schemes to evade sanctions will no longer be unfamiliar or surprising. Here are the investigations we published in the last two years:

The sanctioned trucks typically enter Georgia from Europe, are registered for re-export to Central Asian or other third countries, and then quietly divert to Russia—either by passing through its territory en route or being rerouted mid-journey. VIN code tracking and international trade data reveal discrepancies between the declared destination and the actual endpoint.

In six international databases, we studied who was supplying trucks to Russia and from where. We examined more than 300 VIN codes (unique vehicle identification numbers) and confirmed that 110 of them were transported from Georgia to Russia in violation of international sanctions. Ultimately, we uncovered a mix of previously known and newly emerging schemes.

Scheme 1: Trucks are sold from Georgia to Turkey and other third countries, and from there, they go to Russia.
Scheme 2: Trucks are exported from Georgia to Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan, but they do not reach their final destination and stay in Russia. The transport heading to these countries must pass through Russia on the way.

As a result of these schemes, Georgia’s customs data does not match the data from international databases and customs records of the so-called “third countries.” Hundreds of trailers are exported from Georgia, but are not received in the countries to which they were declared to be destined.

The import of such equipment into Russia was banned by the European Union and other Western countries starting in 2022, after sanctions were imposed on Russia for invading Ukraine. The aim was to weaken Russia’s military supply and economy. Following this decision, European and American vehicle manufacturers also exited the Russian market. However, with the help of such schemes, European-manufactured trucks (such as MAN, Mercedes, Volvo, and Scania) are still freely sold on the Russian market.

Much more at the link, including the research methodology.

Back to Ukraine.

“The Russians will continue murdering our people until they are stopped.” – First Deputy PM of Ukraine

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) June 3, 2025 at 5:25 AM

Fascist Russia was ramping up drone strikes BEFORE democratic Ukraine hit its bomber fleet. It’s possible Russia now lacks the capacity to carry out a “retaliatory” mass missile attack on Ukraine on the same scale as one of its many previous mass missile attacks on the country.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) June 3, 2025 at 3:21 AM

Tatarigami and his Frontelligence Insight Team have their initial battle damage assessment (BDA):

A few additional observations regarding the recent strike on Russia’s strategic aviation may help clarify its scale and implications. Our team assesses the operational strength of the Russian strategic bomber fleet to be at 70 to 90 aircraft. A midpoint estimate puts the number at around 80.

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— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) June 3, 2025 at 4:17 AM

Based on available satellite imagery and open sources, we estimate that at least 11 bombers and one An-12 transport aircraft were destroyed, with two additional bombers likely damaged. This brings the confirmed and probable toll to between 13 and 14 aircraft.

— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) June 3, 2025 at 4:17 AM

Some claims suggest over 20 bombers may have been damaged or destroyed, but we have not yet seen credible visual confirmation to support those higher estimates. There have also been unverified reports of an A-50 AWACS being hit. However, we have found no evidence to substantiate these claims.

— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) June 3, 2025 at 4:17 AM

If we focus strictly on destroyed aircraft, the loss of 11 bombers out of an 80-plane operational fleet represents roughly 13.75% of Russia’s operational strategic bomber force.

Ukrainian strikes seem to deliberately avoided the more modern Tu-160 bombers, instead targeting the Tu-95 and Tu-22M3

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— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) June 3, 2025 at 4:17 AM

We believe this selectivity was a deliberate decision to avoid escalations by targeting key elements of Russia’s nuclear triad, while still degrading assets actively involved in missile strikes. While this operation is unlikely to quickly diminish the frequency of missile strikes against Ukraine…

— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) June 3, 2025 at 4:17 AM

…as Russia typically employs 7 to 11 bombers per salvo, it does have longer-term implications.

The loss of even a portion of these asset especially ones that are almost impossible to replace reduces Russia’s capacity for long-range force projection and its overall geostrategic flexibility.

— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) June 3, 2025 at 4:17 AM

In sum, this was a highly successful operation for Ukraine. While it may not bring a quick reduction in the aerial threat to Ukrainian cities, it degraded a critical segment of Russia’s force projection. At the end it might influence a potential agreement to restrict long-range strikes in the future

— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) June 3, 2025 at 4:17 AM

As more imagery becomes available, the battle damage assessments will firm up, so expect the estimates to change a but over the next few days.

For instance:

Rare Russian spy planes damaged in Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb, Telegraph reports #Ukraine

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— AmplifyUkraine 🔱🇺🇦 (@amplifyukraine.eu) June 3, 2025 at 6:24 PM

From The Kyiv Independent: (emphasis mine)

At least two A-50 Russian surveillance aircraft were damaged in Ukraine’s June 1 drone strike inside Russia, the Telegraph reported on June 3, citing footage viewed by the publication.

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) executed Operation Spiderweb on June 1, targeting four key air bases and destroying around 40 heavy bombers by smuggling trucks of first-person-view (FPV) drones deep inside Russia.

Footage shared with the Telegraph reportedly shows Ukrainian drones hitting two A-50s, rare Russian spy planes that Moscow relies on for several critical functions in its full-scale war against Ukraine.

Drones struck the radar domes of two A-50 aircraft, according to the Telegraph. One plane appeared to be protected by sandbags along its wings, while the other had tires arranged across its airframe.

Open source satellite images from May 2 appear show two A-50s stationed at the Ivanovo air base in Russia’s Ivanovo Oblast, one of the airfields targeted in Operation Spiderweb. The footage shared with the Telegraph makes it clear that these are the same A-50s damaged in the June 1 attack.

The video also reportedly shows several Tupolev bombers in flames after sustaining direct hits from Ukrainian drones.

An SBU source told the Kyiv Independent on June 1 that A-50s were among the aircraft hit in the attack, but the claim could not be verified at the time.

Russia’s A-50s detect air defense systems, guide missiles, and coordinate targets for Russian fighter jets. The aircraft carry an estimated price tag of around $350 million.

They are also extremely rare: Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s military intelligence agency (HUR), said in February 2024 that Moscow only had six A-50s in its arsenal.

Ukraine previously shot down two A-50s in January and February 2024.

More at the link.

If this assessment continues to remain firm, it means that, at least for the time being, Russia is now down to only two A-50s. And that is dependent on the remaining undamaged two actually being operational.

Ukraine’s audacious drone raid has threatened Moscow’s military operations https://on.ft.com/43OZnPR

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— Financial Times (@financialtimes.com) June 3, 2025 at 9:17 AM

From The Financial Times:

Bombers that Russia may never rebuild. A fleet so mauled it may force Moscow to rethink how it raids Ukraine. Deep strikes on Russian soil that expose the price of a long war — even against a weaker foe.

As the toll of Ukraine’s weekend drone raid becomes clear from satellite imagery and expert assessments, so does the scale of the operation.

Ukraine’s audacity — plotting for 18 months to hide drones in trucks to hit military airfields thousands of kilometres from Kyiv — has largely been matched by the material damage done to Russia’s bomber force.

While the effect on Russia’s nuclear capacity is likely to be embarrassing but limited, the attack is expected to affect day-to-day operations in Ukraine, say analysts.

Perhaps most importantly for Kyiv, Ukraine was able to also show — on the eve of ceasefire negotiations with Russia in Istanbul — that it is capable of shifting the dynamics on the battlefield, forcing the Kremlin to accept a new reality in which targets deep within its territory become vulnerable, even without the use of western weapons.

Michael Kofman, a military analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said Ukraine’s strikes had “undoubtedly degraded Russia’s stand-off strike potential”, destroying aircraft that Russia would struggle to replace.

“While it may not be enough to halt strikes on Ukraine, given the size of Russia’s bomber fleet, it showed that continuing the war carries a real cost to Russia’s status as a military power,” added Kofman.

Estimates still vary on the precise numbers hit. Ukraine claims more than 40 aircraft were damaged or destroyed; Russia admitted only to “several units of aviation equipment affected by a fire”. Other assessments from open-source researchers suggest the actual number of destroyed or damaged aircraft is more like 10 to 12.

Even this would mark a significant blow to Russia’s war effort in Ukraine, both in operational and political terms.

The aircraft damaged and destroyed by the strikes made up around 20 per cent of Russia’s operationally ready long-range aviation, several analysts told the Financial Times. These aircraft are designed to travel long distances and deliver heavy payloads deep inside target countries.

Fabian Hoffmann, a doctoral research fellow at the University of Oslo, said that while many bombers were undergoing maintenance, “these aircraft were among the most operational, making these losses particularly damaging”.

Now, Russia will not only have fewer bombers to attack Ukraine but will have to consider changing its tactics. That includes whether it can risk grouping the aircraft together, an approach it has recently used to launch mass strikes on Ukraine.

“If Russia will have to spread them out more for protection, that will directly diminish their ability to stage mass strikes and to overwhelm Ukrainian air defence,” added Alberque.

The situation is further complicated by the fact that the bombers targeted — the Soviet Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 — are no longer in production.

Radio Liberty has published “before and after” satellite images of the Russian “Belaya” airbase in the Irkutsk region, which was attacked by Ukrainian drones.

At least 11 strategic bombers were destroyed there: 7 Tu-95s and 4 Tu-22M3s. In addition, an An-12 transport aircraft was damaged.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) June 3, 2025 at 2:14 PM

Much more at the link.

❗️Commander of the 414th UAV Brigade «Birds of Magyar», Mayor Robert «Magyar» Brovdi was appointed as a commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces AFU.

INCREDIBLE NEWS!! CONGRATULATIONS! I wish you many successes, and more JAGA JAGA! One-Way Teekit!
#UkraineNews

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— Baba Yaga Fèlla (@babayagafella.bsky.social) June 3, 2025 at 2:53 PM

Russians launched a massive overnight attack with Shahed drones on Odesa, Chernihiv, and the Kharkiv region — unfortunately, there are casualties and injuries.

Private and residential buildings were destroyed, cars, businesses, and infrastructure facilities were burned down.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) June 3, 2025 at 4:55 AM

The Kerch Bridge, Russian occupied Crimea:

Wake up honey. We went from bomber porn to bridge porn!

bsky.app/profile/spec…

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— Sven-Erik Volberg (@volberg.bsky.social) June 3, 2025 at 7:50 AM

Sumy:

Russian troops struck the center of Sumy, near a college, in the middle of a busy morning. One person is confirmed dead, several others wounded. A direct hit on civilian life.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) June 3, 2025 at 3:13 AM

WARNING!! WARNING!! GRAPHIC CONTENT!! WARNING!! WARNING!!

❗️UPD. The death toll from the russian attack on Sumy has risen to four. A 43-year-old man died in hospital from his injuries, his 7-year-old daughter remains in critical condition. In total, 28 people were injured, including three children.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) June 3, 2025 at 12:00 PM

Today, Russia struck Sumy. Reports indicate there are dead and injured. Preliminary information suggests there were five hits from long-range MLRS. As a result, a medical facility, cars, and residential buildings were damaged.
t.me/c/1377735387…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) June 3, 2025 at 2:55 PM

ALL CLEAR!!!!

Izium, Kharkiv Oblast:

Three civilians killed, three wounded.

In the morning, russian troops shelled a village in Izium district, Kharkiv Oblast, using MLRS with cluster munitions. One of the dead was a technician installing internet cables at the time of the attack.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) June 3, 2025 at 8:46 AM

Kharkiv:

Two more explosions in Kharkiv ‼️ second russian attack tonight. This time drones

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 3, 2025 at 8:10 PM

Chernihiv:

Four people were injured in Chernihiv after last night’s russian attack

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 3, 2025 at 6:08 AM

Odesa:

In Odesa, five people were injured after last night’s Russian attack.

Fires broke out at various locations, the most extensive being at food warehouses. Additionally, two cars in a private residential area were destroyed by fire.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 3, 2025 at 6:04 AM

The Kursk cross border offensive:

AASM Hammer air strike on Russian positions in the Kursk region. t.me/soniah_hub/1…

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) June 3, 2025 at 8:39 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

💙😻 While the sun is shining brightly, seize the moment and get a seductive tan!
Odesa, Ukraine

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— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) June 2, 2025 at 8:54 AM

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 1,195: Kerch Bridge Falling Down, Falling Down, Kerch Bridge Falling Day, My Fair LadyPost + Comments (40)

Open Thread: (Take) Pride Update

by Anne Laurie|  June 3, 20259:05 pm| 23 Comments

This post is in: LGBTQ Rights Are Human Rights, Open Threads, Sports

Despite online outrage, the California state track meet was mostly just a track meet defector.com/despite-onli…

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— Defector (@defector.com) June 2, 2025 at 8:53 PM

The always insightful Diana Moskovitz, at Defector – “Despite Online Outrage, The California State Track Meet Was Mostly Just A Track Meet”:

Jurupa Valley High School’s AB Hernandez won first place in girls high jump and triple jump on Saturday night at the California Interscholastic Federation’s State Track & Field Championships. She also took second place in girls long jump, making it overall a great performance for the high school junior. After each win, Hernandez took the podium, received her medal, and smiled for photos along with her fellow competitors. She looked happy, because most people do after they win. As the sun sunk lower in the sky and the late afternoon turned into night, it would look to a casual observer watching on a livestream, which I did, like a typical high school track meet: The national anthem was played, there was a reminder about good sportsmanship, high school athletes competed in various disciplines, upcoming events were called out on the loudspeaker, and parents and friends cheered in the stands…

Though Hernandez has competed for years with the support of her local community, when two women began making noise online complaining about her being allowed to compete, they got a lot of attention and eventually caught Donald Trump’s eye. He issued a statement Tuesday about Hernandez, filled with inaccuracies, saying she was unbeatable (she has lost before) and had won everything (again, she has lost before). That same day, CIF issued its own statement, saying it would launch a pilot program to allow any cisgender female athlete who missed out on qualifying due to a transgender female athlete to compete anyway. Those new rules were also why on Saturday, every time Hernandez won a medal, she had to share the podium with someone else as a co-medalist.

The new rules also did nothing to assuage the people dead set on stopping Hernandez… Even though Hernandez had followed all the CIF rules in place, that did little to stop the anti-trans sentiments. On Friday, during qualifications, an airplane flew over the stadium carrying a banner that read “No boys in girls sports!”

The same reporter who got the video of the banner, Haley Sawyer, estimated the number of protestors there Friday at “roughly 10.”

You read that right—10. California is the largest state by population in the entire country with nearly 40 million people. Sure, some people have to work, some people are busy with childcare, or too frail to travel, or they’re students who have to study. But the math is the math. Out of a state with nearly 40 million people, just about 10 were so angry about Hernandez competing that they showed up at Veterans Memorial Stadium in Clovis, Fresno County. That’s the same Fresno County that has an estimated population of more than 1 million, is nearly equidistant to the state’s two biggest metro areas, and is easily accessible by car…

What those railing against Hernandez know is that in today’s decentralized information ecosystem, anger online wins and so their yelling must be covered, even though few protestors came. Meanwhile, the single biggest source of complaints about discrimination to the U.S. Department of Education are from disabled students who said they had been denied help they needed or felt mistreated, not people complaining about trans athletes. Data also shows the biggest danger posed to all high school athletes, regardless of gender, is dying of sudden cardiac arrest, not competing against trans athletes. Having emergency action plans and installing AEDs in high schools would save more lives, but little is said about this online compared to the trans athlete furor.

Despite it all, the actual athletes seemed pretty chill and normal on Saturday as I monitored from the live stream and watched the press coverage roll in. They are athletes, after all, and they know how to block out noise. It’s all smiles in the Associated Press photos. Wilson High School senior Loren Webster, who came in first in the long jump, told the Times as much, saying, “It wasn’t any other person I was worried about. I knew what I was capable of. I can’t control the uncontrollable.” Long Beach Poly High School senior Jillene Wetteland, who also took first in the high jump, told the Chronicle, “I love both of the people I tied with.” And River City High School senior Brooke White, who came in second on the long jump, said to the same reporter that it was an honor to share her podium with Hernandez…

Open Thread: (Take) Pride UpdatePost + Comments (23)

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