Together with the Prime Minister of the Netherlands in Zaporizhzhia; an Important Visit and a Very Symbolic One – on the Very Day the School Year Begins – Address by the President

2 September 2024 – 17:07

Dear Ukrainians!

Today – Zaporizhzhia. Together with the Prime Minister of the Netherlands. An important visit, and a very symbolic one – on the very day the school year begins.

Just now, here in Khortytsia, we spoke with our veterans, veterans of the war. Today, in Zaporizhzhia, we also presented our Mriia – a new educational application. It is actually an analog of Diia for our Ukrainian education, for all our children, for teachers, for parents. This is an undeniably good result: in times of such war, Ukraine is both: defending itself and developing – creating new products, providing opportunities for our people. I thank the entire Mriia team and all our Ukrainian teachers, everyone who works to strengthen education in Ukraine. And we are adding guarantees to this. The Government of Ukraine has clear instructions on the construction of shelters and the provision of buses for schools – we must fulfill what we promised our communities. We are also creating a program of guaranteed free meals for children in primary school – from first to fourth grade. And also, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Ministry of Education, regional administrations, the Ministry of Digital Transformation, communities must ensure the full implementation of our Safe School program – which means creating a truly reliable safe space for all students, for every school.

This year, schools for offline learning have opened in Zaporizhzhia and in many other cities and communities. More than two million children will be able to study in the basic school format. Another million children will study in a mixed format: both offline and online. All of this depends on safety factors. On the availability of shelters in our schools and on our overall ability to protect lives.

Today, during our negotiations with the Prime Minister of the Netherlands, we talked about exactly that – about strengthening air defense, about new air defense systems, and about missiles for them. About F-16s for Ukraine. And about all the necessary weapons for our defense against the Russian occupier. Shells for warriors, equipment. And the protection of life throughout the country, including the protection of our energy sector. Today we have a new aid package from the Netherlands – thank you for that. We have also talked about the Netherlands becoming a patron of Zaporizhzhia – this is infrastructure, this is protection of normal life, this is humanitarian issues. This is something that will definitely help Ukraine. And we appreciate all the support of the people of the Netherlands, Prime Minister Schoof personally, and all the political and public figures from the Netherlands.

And of course, my greatest appreciation goes to all our people, to everyone who protects our Ukraine, our Zaporizhzhia, all our cities and communities. Everyone who fights for Ukraine, works here in our state, helps us – thank you! I am proud of our people; I am proud of Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

On their first day of school, after singing 🇺🇦 anthem, kids in Zaporizhzhia rush to their new underground bomb shelter classrooms as air raid alert sounds. They’ll spend the rest of the day there, but for many, it’s safer and better than having homeschool in front of screens pic.twitter.com/lp72cZJtRy

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) September 2, 2024

On the first day of school in Ukraine, Russia launched another massive attack. Children woke up and headed to corridors and shelters as over twenty missiles were shot down over Kyiv. Kharkiv again came under attack—for the seventh day in a row. pic.twitter.com/F2PyyYKQFJ

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) September 2, 2024

This night, Ukrainian school-age children and their parents slept peacefully at home before the start of the school year.

Russia launched a barrage of 35 missiles and 23 drones into Ukraine early this morning, while people were sleeping. Fortunately, Ukraine’s air defense saved…

— Dmytro Kuleba (@DmytroKuleba) September 2, 2024

This night, Ukrainian school-age children and their parents slept peacefully at home before the start of the school year.

Russia launched a barrage of 35 missiles and 23 drones into Ukraine early this morning, while people were sleeping. Fortunately, Ukraine’s air defense saved lives, but civilian infrastructure was damaged.

Some of the ballistic missiles fired at Ukrainian civilians this morning were KN-23 from North Korea.

The regimes in Pyongyang and Moscow have no restrictions on long-range strikes against any place in Ukraine. However, in defending itself against these two barbaric war machines, Ukraine is forced to fight with hands tied behind its back. Isn’t this absurd?

It is past time for Ukraine’s partners to abandon baseless fears and lift restrictions on the country’s legitimate right to self-defense under the UN Charter, which includes the right to strike any legitimate military targets on Russian territory.

Furthermore, Russia’s use of North Korean munitions in its war against Ukraine not only violates international law and endangers Ukrainian lives, but it also has the potential to significantly deteriorate the security situation on the Korean Peninsula, in the Asia-Pacific, and around the world.

The growing military cooperation between Putin and Kim poses a serious security threat to both Europe and Asia. We urge our Asian partners to consider increasing military aid to Ukraine. The stronger Ukraine is, and the less successful the Russian and North Korean dictators are, the more stable and secure Europe and Asia will be.

The cost:

Chief Rabbi of Ukraine, Moshe Azman, shared on Friday that his adopted son has gone missing in the war with Russia.

“Since the beginning of this terrible war, trouble has knocked on the door of almost every Ukrainian – some have lost a loved one, others are fighting with… pic.twitter.com/A3ht0CJ7Mz

— UNITED24 Media (@United24media) September 2, 2024

Chief Rabbi of Ukraine, Moshe Azman, shared on Friday that his adopted son has gone missing in the war with Russia.

“Since the beginning of this terrible war, trouble has knocked on the door of almost every Ukrainian – some have lost a loved one, others are fighting with injuries. On this day, I want to share with you my personal pain,” he wrote in a post on X on Thursday, marked as the Day of Remembrance of the Fallen Defenders of Ukraine

Anton Samborsky, adopted in 2002 and also known as Matisyahu (Moty), went missing during a battle on July 24, 2024.

Instead of a thousand words.

Today is Olenka’s first day of school. Her dad Yurii will never be able to bring her to school – he died for his daughter’s freedom.

Eternal memory and eternal glory to Ukrainian Hero.

Russia will pay.

📷: anastasiya_krig / Instagram https://t.co/82HEQe7iLj pic.twitter.com/8kg67AVac3

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) September 2, 2024

The reason:

Despite air raid alerts, missiles, blackouts and whatnot, thousands of Ukrainian kids started their school year today.

This is a popular video in Ukraine on the first day of school – Adele, 6, shares how life will unfold. I decided to share it and hope it makes you smile. pic.twitter.com/rEabr2TC1C

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) September 2, 2024

Lithuania:

We cannot allow Russian bombers to be better protected than Ukrainian civilians are. Let’s ask ourselves if we are being honest about how much we actually support Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/nIF3IdQjDZ

— Gabrielius Landsbergis🇱🇹 (@GLandsbergis) August 29, 2024

Poland:

Polish FM @sikorskiradek: “…when hostile missiles are on course of entering our airspace, it would be legitimate self-defence [to strike them] because once they do cross into our airspace, the risk of debris injuring someone is significant.” https://t.co/TJp5k3K1E5

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) September 2, 2024

From The Financial Times:

Poland and other countries bordering Ukraine have a “duty” to shoot down incoming Russian missiles before they enter their airspace despite the opposition of Nato, the Polish foreign minister has said.

Radosław Sikorski told the Financial Times in an interview that Warsaw had an obligation to ensure the safety of its citizens irrespective of fears that interceptions over Ukrainian territory could embroil the Atlantic alliance in Russia’s war against Ukraine.

“Membership in Nato does not trump each country’s responsibility for the protection of its own airspace — it’s our own constitutional duty,” Sikorski said.

“I’m personally of the view that, when hostile missiles are on course of entering our airspace, it would be legitimate self-defence [to strike them] because once they do cross into our airspace, the risk of debris injuring someone is significant.”

Poland signed a bilateral security agreement with Ukraine earlier this summer in which the two countries undertook to examine “the feasibility of possible intercepting in Ukraine’s airspace missiles and UAVs fired in the direction of territory of Poland, following necessary procedures agreed by the states and organisations involved”.

However, Jens Stoltenberg, the outgoing Nato secretary-general, rejected the proposal, saying it risked the alliance “becoming part of the conflict”.

Sikorski insisted on his country’s right to intercept after a suspected Russian drone crossed into Poland on August 26. Polish authorities have since been searching for the UAV, which may have landed back on Ukrainian territory after probably straying off course during a Russian mass missile attack on Ukraine.

Other missiles have landed in Poland since Moscow’s all-out invasion of Ukraine in 2022, while Russian drones also recently strayed into Romania’s airspace.

Sikorski said the risk of Polish casualties increased the closer a missile was to its target when intercepted, so it was preferable to shoot it down at a higher altitude over Ukraine.

“Ukrainians have told us: you’re welcome,” he added.

More at the link!

Iran:

“European officials expect Iran to deliver ballistic missiles to Russia imminently”

Russia is on track to launch more long range strikes against Ukraine with impunity, enabled by Iran.

A better policy would allow Ukraine to strike Russian staging areas. https://t.co/EVDGxLt1FI

— George Barros (@georgewbarros) September 2, 2024

From Bloomberg:

European officials expect Iran to deliver ballistic missiles to Russia imminently, a move that could prompt a swift response from Ukraine’s allies, people familiar with the matter said.

Iran has provided Russia with hundreds of drones during Russia’s 2 1/2-year war against Ukraine, but the potential transfer of ballistic missiles would mark a worrying development in the conflict, according to the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss confidential assessments.

They declined to provide estimates of the type and scope of the deliveries or a timeline, though one of the officials said shipments could begin within a matter of days. Ballistic missiles typically fly much faster than cruise missiles or drones — and can carry larger payloads.

The US and other North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies have repeatedly warned Tehran against such a move and are pressing ahead with diplomatic efforts to prevent it from happening. The US National Security Council didn’t immediately reply to a request for comment. Iran’s Foreign Ministry and its mission to the United Nations didn’t respond to queries.

Ukrainian forces are struggling to halt a Russian advance in the eastern Donetsk region as its cities and energy infrastructure have come under a sustained bombing campaign with the third full winter of the war looming. Kyiv was hit early Monday with a barrage of cruise and ballistic missiles and drones, with seven of 16 ballistic missiles evading air defenses.

Moscow’s ballistic missile arsenal includes Russian and less precise North Korean hardware. The attack on the capital today included domestically made Iskander-M missiles as well as North Korean KN-23 models, launched from the Bryansk, Kursk and Voronezh regions, all bordering Ukraine, according to Ukraine’s air defense forces.

Ukrainian allies meanwhile are scrambling to meet pledges made earlier this year to beef up the war-battered nation’s air-defense systems. Several NATO allies have yet to follow through with commitments reaffirmed at the alliance’s summit in Washington in July, Bloomberg reported last month.

The developments amount to a grim moment for Ukraine, which has lost a significant swathe of its power-generating capacity as citizens increasingly rely on diesel generators grapple with prolonged blackouts. The prospect of restoring power before the heating season is growing more challenging.

Russia’s war economy has been able to produce missiles and ammunition at a tempo that often outpaces that of Ukrainian allies’ ability to ship weapons. Moscow has also been able to rely on deliveries from countries like Iran and North Korea, while sustaining its own manufacturing capacity with technology and key components from nations including China.

This looks like fun!

The world’s longest sniper rifle in service with #UAarmy.

📹: @United24media pic.twitter.com/A2hA5cLcMH

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 2, 2024

Kyiv:

Morning in Kyiv. The remnants of a russian missile made with American components.
Missiles with American chips are only allowed to strike Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/uIAvp28oYM

— Serhii Sternenko ✙ (@sternenko) September 2, 2024

Minister @rustem_umerov:
Terror has no respect for any faith, no mercy for people, their houses, or critical infrastructure of the country. Kremlin’s regime is destroying everything.
Air defense and long-range capabilities for Ukraine are the only way to stop russian terror. https://t.co/VD5ecEKPL7

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 2, 2024

Here’s the full text of Defense Minister Umerov’s tweet:

This is an Islamic Cultural Center in a Kyiv mosque after the night attack of russian invaders.

A total of 35 missiles of various types and 23 drones were launched at Ukraine today.

Terror has no respect for any faith, no mercy for people, their houses, or critical infrastructure of the country. Kremlin’s regime is destroying everything.

Air defense and long-range capabilities for Ukraine are the only way to stop russian terror. The free world must stand together to oppose russian aggression and demand the restoration of a just peace.

Footage of the aftermath of the Russian strike on Kyiv. An educational institution was damaged.

📹: Kyiv military administration https://t.co/UswLWGtWR5 pic.twitter.com/AyN81wY0fq

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) September 2, 2024

Kharkiv:

Russian troops just struck Kharkiv with a glide bomb! Explosion reported in the city! It is the second russian aerial attack on Kharkiv in a day!

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) September 2, 2024

Kharkiv today, on the day when our kids started their school year. pic.twitter.com/8CCrUqDnwg

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) September 2, 2024

Despite constant Russian shelling, a new school year begins in Ukraine. Thousands of children return to school, some studying underground in metro stations and shelters for safety. pic.twitter.com/ToRI7ByD7O

— UNITED24 Media (@United24media) September 2, 2024

In the last few days, Russia bombed Kharkiv, targeting an apartment building and burning people alive in their homes, a playground where shrapnel brutally decapitated a teen, a busy supermarket on a Sunday afternoon, a sports venue, private houses, and double-tapped first… pic.twitter.com/YIp8sh8Ej8

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) September 2, 2024

In the last few days, Russia bombed Kharkiv, targeting an apartment building and burning people alive in their homes, a playground where shrapnel brutally decapitated a teen, a busy supermarket on a Sunday afternoon, a sports venue, private houses, and double-tapped first responders.

All these attacks happened in the usual way for Kharkiv: unexpectedly, with no time to get to safety.

We have a day of mourning after a day of mourning in an endless carousel, yet Western governments somehow expect us to keep living like this, just accepting our fate and keep playing a deadly lottery of who gets murdered next instead of defending ourselves.

All this after the Kursk incursion showed clearly that all the fearsome Russian red lines are imaginary and can be not just crossed but jumped over with zero consequences.

Explain to me why we should be burying our children decapitated on the fucking playground when we could defend ourselves and need nothing for it except a simple green light?

What evil cannibalism is this, or what behind-the-scenes agreement is there between governments? Did they exchanged our lives for Ilya Yashin?

#LetUkraineStrikeBack

The Ukrainians are rightly beginning to feel as if they’ve been betrayed by the Biden administration.

Я писав про це неодноразово в минулому, але варто повторити: не слід розраховувати, що Захід забезпечить перемогу. Як показує практика, саме українські дрони зараз знищують інфраструктуру, і це має реальний військово-політичний вплив. Відверто кажучи, очевидно, що не всі…

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) September 2, 2024

Here’s the machine translation of Tatarigami’s tweet:

I have written about this many times in the past, but it bears repeating: the West should not be counted on to ensure victory. As practice shows, it is Ukrainian drones that are currently destroying the infrastructure, and this has a real military and political impact. Frankly speaking, it is obvious that not everyone is interested in the victory of Ukraine, that is, in the defeat of Russia, so it is rather naive to constantly hope that the West will provide enough help for victory.

From The Economist:

UKRAINE’S FRUSTRATION is growing by the day over restrictions that the Biden administration has imposed on the use of American-supplied weapons against targets inside Russia.

As Russia launched massive missile and drone attacks on cities and energy infrastructure over two days last week (August 26th and 27th), Ukraine’s defence minister, Rustem Umerov, and President Volodymyr Zelensky’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, led a delegation to Washington as part of a fresh bid to get the policy changed. According to reports, the Ukrainian team was seeking permission to go after a specific number of high-value targets with American missiles.

Their mission is a direct response to the shifting excuses coming from the Pentagon and from national security officials about why the restrictions should hold while other supposed red lines have become blurred to the point of invisibility.

A blanket ban on hitting targets in Russia, for instance, was lifted in May, when Ukraine was told it could strike Russian troop concentrations on the other side of the border preparing to attack the city of Kharkiv. When, a month ago, the Ukrainians crossed into Kursk, they took with them HIMARS missile batteries that were deployed against Russian forces called in to repel the invasion. No objections were raised in Washington.

The reason given in the past for forbidding Ukraine from using American weapons against targets in Russia was that this could trigger an escalatory response from the Kremlin that would end up doing more harm to Ukraine and might even result in Russia resorting to nuclear weapons. However, that justification has become increasingly strained.

Vladimir Putin’s nuclear sabre-rattling has been exposed as just that, while Russia has hardly held back in other ways. As Sir Lawrence Freedman, a military historian, says, the missile and drone attacks last week are part of a systematic campaign to make life as miserable as possible for ordinary Ukrainians this winter. “Russia,” he says, “wants hundreds of thousands to leave their homes, perhaps creating yet another refugee crisis in neighbouring European countries”.

In recent months, various new reasons for constraining Ukraine have been trotted out. Unnamed officials have suggested that the administration does not want to jeopardise a “reset” of relations with Moscow at some point in the future. Other officials argue that allowing Ukraine to use ATACMS, a longer-range system than HIMARS, against targets in Russia would not change the strategic picture because there are not enough targets in range. Russia has moved most of the aircraft used to launch powerful glide bombs to airfields beyond the 300km range of the ATACMS missile, and that it is anyway a scarce resource which is better employed against targets in Crimea.

It has also recently emerged that the administration has stopped Britain and France from allowing Ukraine to use the Storm Shadow/SCALP weapons they have provided outside Ukrainian territory. It has been able to do this because the cruise missile contains some American components.

Ben Hodges, a former commander of American forces in Europe, describes this as “constant excuse-making, which is both misleading and inaccurate”. It is not clear, for example, why inadequate numbers of ATACMS should be a restraint. A detailed report by Defence Express, a Ukrainian consulting firm, suggests that America probably holds stocks of at least 2,500 of the missiles, which first entered service more than 30 years ago.

The claim that there are not enough worthwhile targets is equally questionable. The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington think-tank, argues that “Ukrainian long-range strikes against Russian military targets within Russia’s rear are crucial for degrading Russian military capabilities throughout the theatre, and the lifting of restrictions on Ukraine’s use of Western-provided weapons would allow Ukrainian forces to strike a wide range of significant targets undergirding Russia’s war effort.”

The institute assesses that some 250 military “objects” are within range of ATACMS, of which only 17 are airfields from which aircraft may have departed. Many of these are large military bases, communications stations, logistics centres, fuel depots and ammunition warehouses that would be hard to move without serious consequences for Russia’s war effort.

General Hodges, who remains a senior adviser to NATO on logistics, says there is “no moral or legal reason for not going after these targets”. He argues that Mr Biden gets much of his advice from Obama-era officials who repeatedly got Russia wrong. Unless Mr Biden changes his mind, “his legacy will be tainted”. Sir Lawrence concurs: The Americans are “caught in a trap of their own making and they don’t know how to get out of it”. But Mr Biden, he says, is “a stubborn old man”.

Mr Zelensky will soon have a last chance to convince Mr Biden to adopt a new approach before he leaves office, when the two will meet next week in New York, on the fringes of the annual UN General Assembly.

More at the link.

The West is currently restricting Ukraine’s ability to hit targets far behind the front, fearing that deep strikes would be unduly escalatory, writes Stephen Biddle. What would happen if Kyiv could conduct more extensive deep strikes? https://t.co/2Uw5ebdetz

— Foreign Affairs (@ForeignAffairs) August 29, 2024

Here’s Rob Lee’s response:

I think Biddle is right that authorizing the use of longer-range strikes into Russia wouldn’t be decisive on its own, but I also think this is an unfair burden to apply to the delivery of weapons or restrictions. People often say sanctions are ineffective if they fail to deter or stop a war, but they can still make it more difficult for the target to wage that war. 

Most of Russia’s Su-34 glide bomb carriers are no longer operated from airbases within ATACMS or Storm Shadow range; however, the S-300/S-400 that struck Kharkiv yesterday would be within range of ATACMS, and air defenses have a priority ATACMS target in occupied areas. One of the main benefits of allowing HIMARS’ GMLRS strikes into Russian territory after the Kharkiv offensive began was that Kharkiv gained a reprieve from S-300/S-400 strikes. It seems that is no longer the case. 

Of course, allowing these strikes would help Ukraine hold the buffer zone in Kursk, which could become more difficult this winter. It’s also worth noting that Ukraine’s campaign of targeting Russian infrastructure is being accomplished with Ukrainian-built UAVs and missiles. 

There likely isn’t a single silver bullet that will prove decisive, but new capabilities can be additive, which, when employed together effectively, can achieve greater effects. It is also critical for Ukraine’s supporters to look for options to help Ukraine compensate for Russia’s advantages. 

Full disclosure: I know Stephen Biddle. I used to work with both him and his wife. I don’t agree with him here.

Vuhledar:

Russian forces are attacking from both flanks of Vuhledar. https://t.co/mxZiMBOMVF

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) September 2, 2024

Pokrovsk:

Pokrovsk. An evacuation train.
Ahead is the unknown. Behind is a ruined life.
Some of these people have already fled from Russian aggression and lost their homes – in Donetsk, in Bakhmut. They have a few things in small suitcases.
It is heartbreaking.

📸: libkos/Instagram pic.twitter.com/EBGR2rurzW

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) September 2, 2024

The Kursk cross border offensive:

“These [in Kursk] are some of Ukraine’s better and most experienced troops, with the backbone drawn from Ukraine’s elite Air Assault Forces. Some have been pulled off the frontlines in Donetsk and Kharkiv” https://t.co/9FubX6DewU

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) September 2, 2024

From Michael Kofman and Rob Lee at Foreign Affairs:

On August 6, Ukraine launched a bold offensive into Russia’s Kursk region, leveraging surprise and speed to quickly bypass Russian defensive lines. Since then, Ukraine has captured a significant tract of Russian territory and taken hundreds of Russian soldiers as prisoners. Now, three weeks into the attack, Ukrainian forces are holding territory and continuing offensive operations. They appear intent on consolidating a defensible buffer inside Russia.

This offensive has shifted the formerly gloomy narrative, at least for the moment, about the negative trajectory of the war. But Kyiv must decide what to make of its initial win. The offensive has yet to draw significant Russian forces from Ukraine’s eastern regions, and it remains unclear how Ukraine’s leaders intend to translate this tactical success into strategic or political gains. The offensive offers opportunities, but also carries considerable risks and costs. So far, Ukraine’s operations have been conducted by a mixed grouping of units, featuring perhaps 10,000 to 15,000 soldiers in total, with elements of regular brigades and Ukrainian special operations forces. These are some of Ukraine’s better and most experienced troops, with the backbone drawn from Ukraine’s elite Air Assault Forces. Some have been pulled off the frontlines in Donetsk and Kharkiv, where they were fighting against a Russian advance, whereas others would have served as an important reserve to stem Russian momentum.

By redirecting resources away from defensive efforts in the eastern Donetsk region, Ukraine is betting that other parts of the 750-mile front won’t collapse, that it will not lose a large number of soldiers and equipment in Kursk, and that the benefits from its operations in Kursk will outweigh the costs sustained elsewhere. Ukraine’s military leadership also hoped the incursion would divert Russian forces from its frontlines in the east; however, the commander in chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Oleksandr Syrsky, said that Russia has instead intensified its efforts and deployed its most combat-ready units to the Pokrovsk front in Donetsk. Politically, Ukraine is also likely gambling that it can hold Kursk long enough to use it as a bargaining chip in the event that Kyiv is pressured to conduct negotiations. This could work if there is a way to compel Moscow to negotiate on such preferred timelines. But the territory could further strain Ukraine’s military over the winter. Either way, Kyiv hopes the Kursk offensive will spur a change in the perception that the war is on a negative trajectory, unlocking additional material assistance and altering the West’s weapons restrictions.

NOT WAITING
Ukraine’s Kursk incursion has raised flagging morale among its troops and restored its initiative along a patch of the front. The attack has also deeply embarrassed Moscow, demonstrating how unprepared Russia was for an offensive operation along the border. Three months after launching its own incursion into Kharkiv, Russia’s leadership undoubtedly believed that the war was steadily going its way and that time was on its side. Kursk will force Moscow to consider that Ukraine retains options, and that the outcome of this war is still unsettled.

So far, Kyiv has signaled that it will hold Kursk as a buffer space inside Russia, which means Ukrainian forces are there to stay. How large a salient projecting into Russia Kursk will become, and how much frontage Ukraine intends to hold, is not yet clear. But this offensive’s objectives appear much more limited in scope than prior ones. Unlike when Ukraine fought to expel Russia from the Kharkiv region in 2022, the Kursk offensive has not encircled or destroyed substantial Russian forces, which would lead to captured equipment and ruined offensive capability. The prisoners Ukraine has taken are primarily border guards, conscripts, and Akhmat units—paramilitary Chechen units ostensibly under the Russian National Guard. Some Russian conscripts have already been exchanged with Moscow for Ukrainian prisoners of war.

The offensive does not redress the current materiel imbalance in the war. For now, Russia retains an advantage in manpower, equipment, and ammunition. This advantage has not proved decisive, or led to operationally significant breakthroughs, but Russian forces have steadily gained 750 square miles of territory since October 2023, and they have kept advancing in the weeks since Ukraine pushed into Kursk. Recently, the pace of that advance has accelerated, and Ukraine’s position looks increasingly precarious along parts of the front.

Russian advances put at risk cities. That includes Pokrovsk, which is an important transit hub Ukraine is now forced to evacuate. As the pressure mounts, Ukrainian forces could end up ceding terrain gradually, then suddenly, in some places. But judging success by territory gained is misleading. More important is the balance of attrition. Holding a prepared defense is easier than offense and typically less costly. Before the Kursk operation, Ukraine was slowly bleeding Russian offensive power in exchange for territory gained. That kept the risk of a Russian breakthrough low, and it offered Ukraine the chance to rebuild its exhausted military over the coming months. An expanded strike campaign into Russia with drones and newly made missiles was slowly raising the costs of sustaining the war. This was not an especially daring or novel approach, but it was effective. After a new mobilization law went into effect in May, Ukraine more than doubled the number of volunteers and mobilized soldiers joining the military. Ukraine was steadily addressing its deficit of manpower and fortifications, increasing attrition to Russian forces on the battlefield, and supporting infrastructure behind the frontlines. In this context, the Kursk offensive freights Ukraine’s position with added risk.

WHITHER A STRATEGY?
Determining what this operation says about Ukraine’s overall strategy and the implications it has for the broader war effort is essential. In some ways, the offensive raises more questions than answers. Kyiv has long sought to end the war on favorable terms or, at the very least, avoid an unfavorable settlement that includes compromising Ukraine’s sovereignty or conceding territorial losses. In 2023, Kyiv hoped to gain the necessary leverage by breaking through Russian lines in the south and threatening Crimea. Seizing a part of Kursk may be an alternative means to achieve a similar end, assuming Ukraine can hold the territory for long enough.

For much of 2024, the West has been supporting a Ukrainian strike campaign in Crimea without a good explanation for what was meant to follow. It was serviceable as an end unto itself, degrading Russian air defense and support infrastructure. But that campaign now seems disconnected from Ukraine’s efforts in Kursk and its broader drone strike campaign against economic infrastructure in Russia. A series of disparate efforts do not a strategy make. If it was not clear before Kursk, the offensive puts into sharp relief the apparent lack of an agreed strategy between Ukraine and its Western partners. It therefore presents both challenges and opportunities. This turn of events should lead to a revision of the current strategy in this war, assuming one exists.

Since 2023, Washington has been out of ideas for how to successfully end the war on terms favorable to Ukraine. Kyiv, meanwhile, has been focused on stabilizing the frontline, but equally worried about the prevailing gloomy narrative and the sense that Ukraine is losing the war. The Kursk operation helps address the latter at the risk of doing damage to the former. Whether or not Kursk succeeds, at least it is not an attempt to refight the failed 2023 offensive, a set-piece battle in which Ukraine held no decisive advantages. That said, Kyiv’s present theory of success remains unclear.

Beyond the Kursk offensive and the situation at the front, Russia’s strike campaign against Ukraine’s energy grid is increasingly the bigger problem. Ukraine faces an uncertain winter. It needs generators and air defense to close gaps in its coverage. More important, Ukraine needs a way to compel Russia to stop these strikes, if not in 2024, then certainly in 2025. In this light, Ukraine’s desire to lift the remaining restrictions on the use of Western long-range strike systems is understandable. The Kursk offensive has prompted that conversation, but it needs to do much more. Holding Kursk as a bargaining chip, expanding strikes, and putting economic pressure on Russia could significantly strengthen Ukraine’s hand, assuming Ukraine can also hold the line, exhaust Russia’s offensive potential, and withstand Russia’s strike campaign this winter. However it ends, the Kursk offensive needs to provide the impetus for Ukraine and its partners to get on the same page—and shake off the current drift.

Much, much more at the link.

Moscow:

As I’ve documented in my book, “In Their Own Words,” Putin’s propagandists have attempted to intimidate the West with nuclear threats on state-controlled television. Moscow is obviously frustrated that these efforts didn’t work and is now upping the ante. https://t.co/oWHB2XIKoV

— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) September 2, 2024

Here’s the full text of Sciutto’s quoted tweet:

This is an alarming announcement by Russia. As I reported in March, Russia came alarmingly close to using a nuclear weapon in Ukraine in 2022, and already has a lower threshold for nuclear use than the U.S.:

“Russia is adjusting its protocols for nuclear weapon use in light of enhanced Western support for Ukraine, Russian state media outlet TASS reported, citing Russian government minister Sergei Ryabkov. Deputy foreign minister Ryabkov told TASS on Sunday that Russia is in the “advanced stages” of work to revise a key document outlining the “parameters and conditions” for the use of its nuclear arsenal.

Under the current document from 2020, Russia has the greenlight to use nuclear weapons if an enemy “uses such weapons or other weapons of mass destruction” against Russia or if an enemy attack is launched which “threatens the very existence of the state.””

https://cnn.com/2024/03/09/politics/us-prepared-rigorously-potential-russian-nuclear-strike-ukraine?cid=ios_app

Julia Davis is correct. This is more information/influence warfare. Putin has been unable to achieve his objectives in Ukraine, but he has been incredibly successful in influencing Biden, Sullivan, and the rest of Biden’s senior natsec appointees, which has frozen them into a continuum that ranges from inaction to dithering to incrementalism.

“alarming”

No. russia is scared of losing the war and playing again its last card: bullying the West with nuclear threats into surrendering Ukraine to putin’s imperial ambitions.

The best policy response is to ignore it. https://t.co/s1Bl81Ok4q

— Thomas C. Theiner (@noclador) September 2, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.

☺️ pic.twitter.com/Uy1QOIvb6l

— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) August 31, 2024

In trenches pic.twitter.com/qlD043hxmj

— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) August 31, 2024

Open thread!