We Managed to Build Confidence in Vovchansk Direction, yet Russian Shelling and Threats Persist – Address by the President

16 May 2024 – 20:12

Dear Ukrainians!

Today, in the first half of the day, I was in the Kharkiv region. First of all, to address defense issues and protection of people.

I held a meeting of the Staff in Kharkiv, involving the Commander-in-Chief, commanders of directions, heads of the security sector – the Defense Intelligence, the Foreign Intelligence Service, the Security Service, the State Border Guard Service, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, and the heads of the Kharkiv region. Thus, all aspects of the situation were considered. We discussed in detail the combat operations in the Kharkiv region, the protection of people, our positions, and the needs of the units that defend our positions. Now, thanks to our Forces, our measures, we have managed to build confidence in the direction of Vovchansk. However, Russian shelling and threats persist. Today, in particular, the head of the Vovchansk administration was wounded. Our counterattacks are ongoing, including in other parts of the Kharkiv border area. And there should be more results in repelling the assaults, in destroying the occupier. Russia is trying to expand the war, invariably accompanying it with empty words about peace. We must force Russia into a real, just peace by all means. In this context, our defense against assaults and attacks is crucial.

Today’s meeting also included reports on the occupier’s further intentions – we are preparing for all scenarios.

Today we also thoroughly analyzed the situation in the Donetsk region – on the relevant fronts. Pokrovsk, Kramatorsk, and others. There, the greatest number of combat encounters and the toughest conditions are observed. Of course, we are not neglecting this direction.

And we are thoroughly working with our partners to provide Kharkiv, Donetsk, Sumy, and other regions with more basic protection, namely air defense systems and sufficient long-range weapons. Upon my return to Kyiv, I spoke with Polish Prime Minister Tusk. We talked about our needs, about Patriot systems that could significantly change the situation in the Kharkiv direction. We also discussed the Russian terrorist attacks on our regions in the western part of Ukraine – the threat that attacks on gas infrastructure pose to everyone in Europe, not only to us but also to our neighbors. We must work together to counter this. I would also like to thank Denmark today – there is a new defense package worth €750 million to bolster our air defense and artillery. This is a timely decision, and I greatly appreciate it.

And one more thing.

Today I had the honor to personally award our warriors who are defending the Kharkiv direction. It is very important. The 57th, 42nd, and 92nd brigades. The warriors of the special forces of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine – I am grateful to each of you guys! Each of our soldiers, each sergeant, each officer – the bravery of each determines our common destiny. I am grateful to everyone who does everything for our state to withstand! I thank everyone in the world who helps!

Glory to Ukraine!

Denmark:

Denmark announced a new military aid package to Ukraine valued at 5.6 billion DKK (€750 million).

The package includes DKK 2.4 billion for strengthening Ukraine's air defense as well as additional contributions for the upcoming F-16 donation, and financial contributions for the… pic.twitter.com/WPtdDgVToz

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 16, 2024

Denmark announced a new military aid package to Ukraine valued at 5.6 billion DKK (€750 million).

The package includes DKK 2.4 billion for strengthening Ukraine’s air defense as well as additional contributions for the upcoming F-16 donation, and financial contributions for the donation of additional artillery pieces, shells, and anti-tank mines.

We are grateful to Denmark for their unwavering support.
Thank you for helping Ukraine win this war!
🇺🇦🤝🇩🇰
@Forsvarsmin

Germany and Lithuania:

According to the German Minister of Defence Boris Pistorius, Lithuania is contributing to the German IAAD initiative which aims to strengthen the Ukrainian air defence with six AMBER-1800 air surveillance radars. He did not provide any further details such as a planned delivery… pic.twitter.com/y67rSVA5wL

— German Aid to Ukraine (@deaidua) May 16, 2024

According to the German Minister of Defence Boris Pistorius, Lithuania is contributing to the German IAAD initiative which aims to strengthen the Ukrainian air defence with six AMBER-1800 air surveillance radars. He did not provide any further details such as a planned delivery date.

An overview of the initiative ⬇️

Germany: 1 Patriot battery
Lithuania: 6 AMBER-1800 air surveillance radars

Belgium: €200 million
The Netherlands: €150 million
Denmark: €134 million (for financing a Patriot battery)
Canada: ~€52 million (for financing IRIS-T (SL) missiles)

 

Today is Vyshyvanka Day, celebrating the traditional Ukrainian embroidered shirt.

Visible or invisible, it is always under a defender's pixel, a rescuer's uniform, a medic's coat, a power engineer's jacket, a volunteer, a teacher, or anyone who holds the defense.

Our children… pic.twitter.com/0hlfnrwo5M

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) May 16, 2024

Today is Vyshyvanka Day, celebrating the traditional Ukrainian embroidered shirt.

Visible or invisible, it is always under a defender’s pixel, a rescuer’s uniform, a medic’s coat, a power engineer’s jacket, a volunteer, a teacher, or anyone who holds the defense.

Our children have known it since infancy. It represents the unity of all generations of Ukrainians over the centuries. Its pattern is unique because it is embroidered by our own actions on a canvas of our values.

Over the years of our resistance to aggression, it has become an informal uniform for all those who defend humanity, freedom, and the right to self-identity.

Happy Vyshyvanka Day to Ukraine, all Ukrainians, and Ukraine’s friends around the world! 🇺🇦

 

To keep traditions alive you must defend them.
Happy #Vyshyvanka Day!

📷: Rubizh Brigade pic.twitter.com/60KRQCjovz

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 16, 2024

Today we mark Vyshyvanka Day. The code of the nation, a strong connection with traditions and history, a powerful talisman of Ukrainians. pic.twitter.com/Ed6kNP7AaL

— SPECIAL OPERATIONS FORCES OF UKRAINE (@SOF_UKR) May 16, 2024

Here is Mikhail Khodorkovsky’s assessment of the strategic situation in Ukraine. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:

The West is losing the war: current efforts are insufficient to prevent the fall of key Ukrainian regions to Putin in the next 2 years.

1/16 🧵The facts you need to know

(Follow for a second part on good and bad sanctions) pic.twitter.com/TjcvD43UZ7

— Mikhail Khodorkovsky (@khodorkovsky_en) May 16, 2024

Putin spends about $120bn a year on the war – 5.4% of Russia’s $2.2 trillion GDP – with the most commonly used Russian shell costing about $500

2/16 

European aid to Kyiv over two years amounts to $88bn – about 0.25% of the EU’s GDP – with shells that cost between $5,000 and $8,0002

3/16 

This means that, if we include the American contribution, Putin is outproducing the West by at least 2.5:1. This year, without US support, that ratio jumps to 4:1

4/16 

At the start of the war, Russia’s population was 142 million to Ukraine’s 40 million – a ratio of about 3.5:1. Now, two years later, that ratio is 7:1. And yet, we demand that Ukraine continue to fight on – but with what?

5/16 

At the current rate, Kharkiv will fall within the year, and Odesa – next year. By 2026, Ukraine will be capable only of maintaining a small-scale partisan resistance – and that is in the best case scenario

6/16 

Lviv will be preserved if Polish troops, as part of NATO, enter the city. This is a more optimistic scenario, provided that the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue their heroic resistance despite all the challenges.

7/16 

What is the thought process at play? ‘Perhaps if Putin takes Ukraine, he will calm down’? Perhaps he will – although as I have said before, that is highly unlikely

8/16 

More likely, when the war is over, Russian soldiers will be at Poland’s border. And they’ll be joined by some Ukrainians, resentful of the Western betrayal and, in need of some way to earn a living, forced to join a united Russian-Ukrainian army under Russian command.

9/16 

We saw a similar dynamic happen in Donbas.

10/16 

I’m sure nobody who has thought about this, really wants to see such an outcome. But as it stands, this is the most likely one. The only way to prevent it is for Western countries to step up their efforts to aid Ukraine and hinder Putin

11/16 

Without the support of its allies, Ukraine cannot be expected to fight off the invasion forever. Putin certainly has the support of his own allies. Xi Jinping has said that there are no limits to Sino-Russian co-operation. What can this tell us?

12/16 

It tells us that when democracies are not willing to unite and act decisively, then dictators feel empowered to act as they please without fear of consequences

13/16 

It’s important to keep in mind that Putin does not need territory. Putin needs a war for his domestic goals. And a weak West makes a wonderful target for him

14/16 

If the West hopes to trick the world’s autocrats into a world war, then it’s well on the way to realizing that aim.

15/16 

I work to draw attention to the nuances of Russian policy that mainstream outlets often miss. Follow for more analysis

16/16 

Thanks to @liberalemoderne for hosting this forum on the current state of affairs between the West and Russia 

Kharkiv:

“We could have destroyed them, but we were not allowed to”—Kharkiv residents are angry about restrictions on using Western weapons inside Russia.

My latest on how Kharkiv braces for the offensive: https://t.co/QMazSDTmBB

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) May 16, 2024

From The Atlantic Council: (emphasis mine)

Residents of Kharkiv have been monitoring reports with increasing urgency for the past five days as a new Russian offensive edges closer to the city. The stresses of war are nothing new to the Kharkiv population, which has been under daily bombardment since the start of the current year. Nevertheless, the opening of a new front less than half an hour’s drive from the city’s northern suburbs has raised the stakes dramatically.

Since the Russian offensive began last Friday, harrowing footage of burning villages and fleeing civilians has flooded social media, adding to the sense of mounting danger. Evacuation efforts are still underway in the border region, with around 8000 people so far brought from nearby communities to Kharkiv.

So far, Russian troops have made modest progress, advancing up to eight kilometers into Ukraine and capturing a number of Ukrainian villages. While the incursion is currently regarded as too small in scale to threaten Kharkiv itself, the reappearance of Russian soldiers in the region for the first time since 2022 has sparked considerable alarm and dismay.

Russia’s new offensive did not come as a complete surprise, of course. On the contrary, the build-up of Russian troops across the border had been common knowledge for weeks. Kharkiv Regional Council member and political sciences professor Halyna Kuts says she has been preparing for some time, and has a bag of emergency items packed and ready.

Kuts is one of many people in Kharkiv to express anger at restrictions preventing Ukraine from using Western weapons to strike targets inside Russia. Due to fears of possible Russian retaliation, most of Kyiv’s partners insist the military aid they supply only be used within Ukraine’s borders. These restrictions prevented Ukraine from attacking concentrations of Russian troops as they prepared for the current offensive. “We could have destroyed them, but we were not allowed to,” says Kuts.

With Russian troops now gradually moving toward the city, Kuts believes the only option is to “dig in” and prepare to defend Kharkiv. “This is no longer a center of culture and science; this is a military fortress. Everyone should be carrying a gas mask, bandages, and water with them at all times,” she says.

In recent days, it has become much rarer to encounter children on the streets of the city. Some families have now left Kharkiv due to the deteriorating security situation, heading west for the relative safety of Poltava, Kyiv, or beyond. Youngsters who remain are obliged to attend classes underground or online.

Defiance can be expressed in different ways. For Halyna Kuts, this means proceeding with Kharkiv’s annual Vyshyvanka Day parade on May 16 in one of the city’s underground metro stations. This colorful annual event, which features people sporting Ukraine’s traditional embroidered shirts, is widely seen as a celebration of Ukrainian patriotism and national identity. With Russian troops advancing toward the city, Kuts says it is now more important than ever to host this year’s parade as planned.

More at the link.

Also Kharkiv:

“Lacking sufficient forces and with a deficit of ammunition, Ukraine’s military responds to Russian breakthroughs by moving its best brigades and elite units around the front. This firefighting approach, which happened during the battles of Bakhmut and Avdiika, means that the…

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) May 16, 2024

“Lacking sufficient forces and with a deficit of ammunition, Ukraine’s military responds to Russian breakthroughs by moving its best brigades and elite units around the front. This firefighting approach, which happened during the battles of Bakhmut and Avdiika, means that the best units do not have enough time to rest and regenerate.”
@RALee85 @KofmanMichael

https://nytimes.com/2024/05/16/opinion/russia-ukraine-kharkiv.html

Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast:

The fight for Vovchansk pic.twitter.com/Y8OC7R4Vlk

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) May 16, 2024

Ukraine's Minister of Internal Affairs Ihor Klymenko states that terrorist formations of the so-called "russia" are taking civilians hostage in the northern section of Vovchans'k, to hold them in basements. Some of them were executed.

We have already seen this many times when… pic.twitter.com/4AYYK8Gx3L

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) May 16, 2024

Ukraine’s Minister of Internal Affairs Ihor Klymenko states that terrorist formations of the so-called “russia” are taking civilians hostage in the northern section of Vovchans’k, to hold them in basements. Some of them were executed.

We have already seen this many times when terrorists, struggling to complete their objectives, take it out on civilians.

Clearly, Russian terrorist formations are following the example of their “colleagues” who organised similar events in Bucha and other towns of Ukraine and were later given state awards for these massacres.

Sumy Oblast:

2. As a result, entire villages are destroyed, people die and are maimed. Housing, civil infrastructure and the cultural heritage of the region are destroyed. Constant danger forces residents to leave their homes and evacuate to safer places.

— Holodomor Museum (@HolodomorMuseum) May 16, 2024

4. It is especially painful for us to realise this because, in the border areas of Sumy Oblast, we never had the opportunity to go on expeditions, to record the Holodomor witnesses of the Holodomor, or look for potential exhibits for our museum.

— Holodomor Museum (@HolodomorMuseum) May 16, 2024

6.Honouring the Sumy region today, we continue the series of publications about the Holodomor and modern crimes of the aggressor country committed in this region. We will also talk about the most interesting exhibits from our stock collection, representing the Sumy region.

— Holodomor Museum (@HolodomorMuseum) May 16, 2024

Russian occupied Crimea:

On @Maxar imagery, two MiG-31s and one Su-27 have been completely destroyed, and a MiG-29 damaged, at the Russian Air Force's Belbek Airbase in occupied Crimea. A fuel storage near the main airbase runway was also destroyed, and debris continued to burn in the aftermath. https://t.co/ZWflMYUFVw pic.twitter.com/80N56MRP2h

— Christiaan Triebert (@trbrtc) May 16, 2024

Here is Tatarigami’s and his Frontelligence Insight team’s battle damage assessment of the strike on the Belbek airbase. From the Thread Reader App:

Frontelligence Insight conducted an initial Battle Damage Assessment of strikes on Belbek Airfield in Crimea on May 15th and 16th. This analysis is based on mid-resolution images taken on May 16th

Before continuing, please like, share, and follow to aid with visibility. 🧵Thread

2/Three large scorch marks are visible in the central part of the airfield: two on the military jet apron and one in the fuel depot area. The exact diameter of these marks cannot be determined due to low resolution, but they appear to be approximately over 30m in size.

3/ The imagery from July 2023 confirms that the apron was used to host military jets. Due to the resolution limitations, we cannot determine whether any aircraft were hit or destroyed, nor can we assess the level of damage, but we can conclude that missiles did reach the apron.

4/ The third scorch mark is visible within the fuel depot area. This likely explains the large, bright fire observed in videos taken by local residents, indicating the complete destruction of the depot. The extent of damage to nearby buildings cannot be determined at this stage

5/The characteristics and size of the scorch marks confirm that at least three missiles hit their targets. Damage from submunitions may not be visible at this resolution, and the actual damage could be more severe than what is visible in these images. High-res imagery is required 

6/ Thank you for reading. Please consider liking and sharing the first message of the thread to help increase visibility. If you would like to support us, you can find more information in this post:

The Avdiivka front:

Work of Bradley of the 47th Brigade of Ukraine on the Avdiivka front. https://t.co/SM2XJQMTBZ pic.twitter.com/ju8AJ1wOS2

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 16, 2024

Pokrovsk direction:

The 47th Mechanized Brigade released a video of the results of their combat work over the past month in the Pokrovsk direction. They destroyed 13 tanks, including three T-90s, and 20 IFVs. pic.twitter.com/nmscWJLpaX

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 16, 2024

Luhansk Oblast:

Booom!
An epic detonation of a russian Msta-S howitzer in the Luhansk region.

📹: 10th Mountain Assault Brigade pic.twitter.com/qBYPhqneuU

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 16, 2024

Moscow:

The consequences of these events are yet to be fully comprehended, and they are likely to have profound long-term implications.

Following the Kremlin shakeup and the replacement of Shoigu with Belousov, a figure from the so-called "economic" or "technocratic" circles, there has… pic.twitter.com/Kzl0Wp3VjM

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) May 16, 2024

The consequences of these events are yet to be fully comprehended, and they are likely to have profound long-term implications.

Following the Kremlin shakeup and the replacement of Shoigu with Belousov, a figure from the so-called “economic” or “technocratic” circles, there has been speculation about the nature of these changes and Shoigu’s future role. Today, Shoigu appeared alongside Putin during his visit to China, though this isn’t the main focus of our discussion. The composition of this delegation might give us a lot of critical details and its goals.

In addition to Putin, Shoigu, Lavrov, Peskov, and the newly appointed Belousov, the expanded Russian delegation includes:

Minister of Natural Resources and Environment,
Head of the Central Bank, Minister of Economic Development, Minister of Finance, Director of the Federal Financial Monitoring Service, CEO of Rosatom,
Director of the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation, First Deputy Prime Minister, Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration

Furthermore, key representatives of businesses and oligarchs are part of the expanded delegation.

– Oleg Deripaska, oligarch and founder of RUSAL
– Igor Sechin, oligarch, CEO of Rosneft
– Herman Gref, Chairman of Sberbank’s Executive Board
– Andrey Kostin, President-Chairman of VTB Bank
– Kirill Dmitriev, CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund
– Leonid Mikhelson, Chairman of NOVATEK
– Igor Shuvalov, Chairman of VEB.RF
– Alexander Shokhin, President of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP)

Such a list of decision-makers from the financial and economic sectors suggests that this delegation is not ordinary but rather an ambitious and serious effort to deepen economic and financial cooperation with China. Given the presence of the newly appointed Minister of Defense and the Director of the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation, we should also anticipate discussions on military-industrial cooperation.

This should not be dismissed as a routine event. The last time Shoigu visited North Korea, Russia received millions of artillery shells and ballistic missiles. However, unlike that delegation, this one is heavily represented by the financial and economic sectors, suggesting Russia’s serious intent to address economic and financial problems caused by war.

Given China’s pragmatism and Russia’s weakened position, successful negotiations may require significant concessions or unfavorable long-term agreements for Russia. That being said, the successful outcome of these negotiations will create problems for Ukraine regardless, as Russia is clearly aiming to outproduce the West and Ukraine.

I’ll leave detailed economic discussions to specialists in their respective fields, but it’s evident that this could have significant global implications and will likely have a tangible impact on the ongoing war for years to come.

Xi stressed the “friendship” between Moscow and Beijing, saying he and Putin provided each other with “strategic guidance”, before the pair signed a statement on deepening their strategic partnership. https://t.co/VOfjBE2aNt https://t.co/DY8n2dIZ2H

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) May 16, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

First, some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense:

Defend what is yours.

📷: @StratCom_AFU pic.twitter.com/7LD76M9RS1

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 16, 2024

And Tom 😍 pic.twitter.com/pv0R4mxlUQ

— Patron (@PatronDsns) May 16, 2024

Open thread!