Our Positions at the Front, the Physical Protection of Our People and Communities, and the Disruption of Any Attempts at Russian Offensive Are Urgent Priorities – Address by the President

8 May 2024 – 21:47

Dear Ukrainians!

A few important points for today.

First of all, I am grateful to all those who have been eliminating the consequences of the Russian Nazis’ attack in various regions of Ukraine today – Vinnytsia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Zaporizhzhia, Poltava, Kirovohrad. This is how the Kremlin marks the end of World War II in Europe – with a massive attack, with its attempts to break the lives of our people, with its Nazism. Almost sixty Russian missiles and more than twenty “Shaheds” were launched in just one day. It was a deliberate, combined strike against our energy system – against power generation, hydroelectric dam, gas infrastructure. We managed to shoot down some of the missiles and most of the “Shaheds.” I thank each of our partners whose air defense systems were effective today. However, not all Russian missiles were shot down. Unfortunately. There were hits, and the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, power engineers, involved services and enterprises are facing many challenges. I am grateful to everyone who is working one hundred percent to increase the percentage of energy generation.

I would also like to personally thank the rescuers who have proved themselves effective and committed to eliminating the consequences of the Russian strikes today and in general at this time. Zaporizhzhia region – Oleksandr Antipov, Serhiy Sydorenko, Mykola Sereda – employees of state fire and rescue units. Thank you! Lviv region – Ihor Veretelnyk, Oleksandr Voitovych, Viktor Kapustiak. Thank you! Poltava region – Oleksandr Kit, Oleksandr Baiva, Yevhen Kibalnyk. Thank you! Vinnytsia region – Oleh Kostiuk, Dmytro Palamarchuk and Volodymyr Khudchenko. Ivano-Frankivsk region – Artur Vasiutiak, Oleh Shastkiv and Ruslan Kryklyvyi. I am grateful to you guys and all your colleagues – the entire staff of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, all the people whose job is to always give life hope, always help, under any circumstances.

Today, I continued negotiations with the leaders who can help us – Ukraine – and our entire Europe to bring a just peace and real, lasting security closer. We continue preparations for the first Global Peace Summit, which will be held in Switzerland and should become a truly effective peace-building platform. Today I personally invited the leaders of Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Hungary, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia and the Secretary General of the Council of Europe to the Summit. It is very important that we maintain dialogue with all leaders, and we actually share a common goal with all of them – to restore genuine tranquility to international relations and guarantee justice to every nation – guarantee that they will not be destroyed. Only in cooperation can the world ensure this. And I thank every leader, every state that has already confirmed their participation in the Peace Summit. We are working to make sure that everyone else understands us and joins in as well. Everyone who helps will feel the gratitude of history.

Of course, we also discussed our bilateral cooperation today. Denmark – we discussed the strengthening of our air defense and the implementation of defense agreements. The Netherlands – we discussed with Mark, Mr. Prime Minister, the search for additional Patriot systems. Hungary – a good conversation, long, with many details. Bilateral cooperation, the situation in the region. We agreed to work together further, based on the efforts of our teams. Germany – we discussed the restoration and protection of our energy sector, the preparation of a recovery conference in Berlin. Saudi Arabia – we discussed with the Crown Prince our bilateral cooperation and global affairs – ways to actually bring peace closer.

And one more thing.

Today, there was a separate report by the Minister of Defense of Ukraine and a report by the Commander-in-Chief. Our positions at the front, the physical protection of our people and communities, and the disruption of any attempts at Russian offensive are urgent priorities. I am grateful to each of our warriors whose courage and resilience make all this possible. To everyone in the Ukrainian Defense Forces – in our combat brigades, in all units involved, in the Air Defense Forces, in the Air Force, in the security forces. Everyone who is now on the frontline, who defends Ukraine on the ground, in the sky and at sea, gives our state the opportunity to gain a prospect for Ukrainians – for our independence, for our diplomacy, for our lives. Glory to all our warriors! Glory to our people!

Glory to Ukraine!

Today is Victory in (WW II in) Europe day.

May 8
Unity overcomes evil. pic.twitter.com/wF3LBq2LKi

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 8, 2024

On May 8, we mark the Day of Remembrance and Victory over Nazism in the Second World War.

Today, we honor the millions of Ukrainians who bravely fought and sacrificed their lives to defeat this evil.
Today, a new evil has emerged, threatening Europe's peace and stability.

The… pic.twitter.com/uOV9jb7Ks7

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 8, 2024

On May 8, we mark the Day of Remembrance and Victory over Nazism in the Second World War.

Today, we honor the millions of Ukrainians who bravely fought and sacrificed their lives to defeat this evil.
Today, a new evil has emerged, threatening Europe’s peace and stability.

The new coalition of nations must now demonstrate its solidarity and resolve to make sure the new Nazism suffers defeat.

Tomorrow, 9 May, Russia will celebrate Victory Day as part of their fetishization of Russia’s and the Soviet Union’s accomplishments in WW II. I expect that the assault on Ukrainian civilians and civilian targets over the next 12 to 24 hours.

Yep, it’s always “Never Again” and all every year on May 8, poppies and speeches — up until the thing that should have never happened again actually happens — then it’s suddenly “Escalation Management”, “Don’t Provoke Putin”, “I Don’t Support Russia But…”, “They Have Nukes, You…

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) May 8, 2024

Yep, it’s always “Never Again” and all every year on May 8, poppies and speeches — up until the thing that should have never happened again actually happens — then it’s suddenly “Escalation Management”, “Don’t Provoke Putin”, “I Don’t Support Russia But…”, “They Have Nukes, You Know”, “Surrender For Peace Now”, “Pay For Your Own War”, “It’s All Your Fault”, “You Can’t Target Russian Territory” etc etc etc.

Go figure.

The cost:

pic.twitter.com/as13RUF2Ux

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) May 8, 2024

Remember this picture of a woodland battlefield in east Ukraine that went viral last month?

The author, Denys Zeleny, a non-commissioned officer with Ukraine’s National Guards, has been killed in action….

In civilian life, he used to work as a manager at a confectionary chain called Honey.

 

In this photograph that I took in early April 2024 is Serhii, an infantryman at the moment he was waiting to go to the frontline

Shortly afterwards, the photo was published on the front page of Liberation, but Serhii would never see it. He was killed in action later that month. pic.twitter.com/BYl7INq9AT

— Roman Pilipey (@RomanPilipey) May 8, 2024

This is a future we should make every effort to prevent:

What if Ukraine is forced to surrender to Russia? What happens next? What kind of global security environment would there be?

This video was made by Mykhailo Dankanych, a former TV producer who is currently serving in the Ukrainian Armed Forces. pic.twitter.com/SvIZ0aAEoc

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) May 8, 2024

Britain:

Russian channels taking credit for the UK database hack that currently has frozen the country's airports. pic.twitter.com/w5ARLNvRQ1

— Jay in Kyiv (@JayinKyiv) May 7, 2024

Taps the sign: It’s a world war!

The UK government says it will expel Russia's defense attaché for being an undeclared military spy, strip diplomatic status from properties in the UK that it believes are used by Russia to gather intelligence & cap the length of Russian diplomatic visas. https://t.co/EDVXIIgHFD pic.twitter.com/mgHMy0oY8r

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) May 8, 2024

Brussels:

Brussels agrees to send €3bn from frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine https://t.co/8W23xbzCBu

— Massoud Maalouf (@Massoudmaalouf) May 8, 2024

From Euronews:

EU diplomats agreed Wednesday to use income from frozen Russian state assets to aid Ukraine – paving the way for the war-torn country to get around €3 bn for arms purchases and reconstruction before the summer.

Since the full-scale invasion of 2022, €210 billion in assets of the Moscow central bank have sat frozen within the bloc – chiefly at the Euroclear depositary in Belgium.

The deal was agreed “in principle” at a regular meeting of national representatives, according to a tweet by Belgium, currently chairing talks in the European Council.

Brussels has long touted using the interest from those funds, estimated at around €3bn per year, for Ukraine’s reconstruction costs – and later extended its plans to cover Kyiv’s military expenditure.

The plan – which also has backing from the group of seven leading industrialised democracies – comes as Ukraine hopes to turn the tide in an increasingly desperate military campaign, bolstered by €89bn recently agreed by the US Congress.

But Ukrainian ministers have said Brussels needs to go further than merely scooping up interest payments – and fully confiscate Moscow’s assets to ensure the aggressor pays for the cost of war.

Officials from EU countries and the European Central Bank have expressed concerns that seizing assets outright might set an unhelpful precedent or harm the euro’s reputation as a safe currency.

I welcome today's political agreement on our proposal to use the proceeds from immobilised Russian assets for Ukraine.

There could be no stronger symbol and no greater use for that money than to make Ukraine and all of Europe a safer place to live. https://t.co/zGQMVAKAMt

— Ursula von der Leyen (@vonderleyen) May 8, 2024

Talks were also held up by concerns over how many of the assets would be retained by Euroclear as an administration fee, a figure that was originally as high as 13%, as well as Belgium’s right to tax the profits gained by the Brussels-based securities depository.

Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo has already promised to send some €1.5bn directly to Ukraine, though that appears to be a result of applying existing corporate tax law to the unexpected windfall Euroclear gains by having frozen central bank assets on its books.

The final deal allows Euroclear to keep a provisional buffer worth 10% of the profits, in case of litigation over the funds. It can also keep 0.3% as an incentive, while 90% of the funds will be sent via the European Peace Facility to help Ukraine buy weapons.

Commission President Ursula von der Leyen previously suggested Ukraine could receive the first funds under the mechanism by July – but the calculation will be backdated to February, when Euroclear formally segregated the assets.

Ambassadors today also formally agreed on the reforms Ukraine will have to make to receive funds from a separate €50bn facility of EU grants and loans.

 

 

This is very interesting – and very important to make clear.

"Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries are now doing what the sanctions regime has not."https://t.co/C1386qyzNE

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) May 8, 2024

From Foreign Affairs:

On January 19, a Ukrainian drone struck an oil depot in the town of Klintsy, in Russia’s western Bryansk region, setting four gasoline tanks on fire and igniting some 1.6 million gallons of oil. Later that week, another strike lit a fire at Rosneft’s oil refinery in Tuapse, a Russian city some 600 miles from Ukrainian-held territory. In March, Ukrainian drones hit four Russian refineries in two days. April began with a Ukrainian drone attack on Russia’s third-largest refinery, located deep in the region of Tatarstan, around 800 miles away. The month ended with strikes on facilities in two more Russian cities, Smolensk and Ryazan.

In all, Ukraine has launched at least 20 strikes on Russian refineries since October. Ukrainian security officials have indicated that the attacks’ objectives are to cut off fuel supplies to the Russian military and slash the export revenues that the Kremlin uses to fund its war effort. By the end of March, Ukraine had destroyed around 14 percent of Russia’s oil-refining capacity and forced the Russian government to introduce a six-month ban on gasoline exports. One of the world’s largest oil producers is now importing petrol.

But the Biden administration has criticized the attacks. In February, Vice President Kamala Harris urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to refrain from targeting Russian oil refineries out of concern that the strikes would drive up global oil prices. Echoing that sentiment, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin warned the Senate Armed Services Committee in mid-April that the “attacks could have a knock-on effect in terms of the global energy situation.” Instead of striking oil infrastructure, Austin told the committee, “Ukraine is better served in going after tactical and operational targets that can directly influence the current fight.”

Washington’s criticism is misplaced: attacks on oil refineries will not have the effect on global energy markets that U.S. officials fear. These s​trikes reduce Russia’s ability to turn its oil into usable products; they do not affect the volume of oil it can extract or export. In fact, with less domestic refining capacity, Russia will be forced to export more of its crude oil, not less, pushing global prices down rather than up. Indeed, Russian firms have already started selling more unrefined oil overseas. As long as they remain restricted to Russian refineries, the attacks are unlikely to raise the price of oil for Western consumers.

Yet they can still inflict pain inside Russia, where the price of refined oil products, such as gasoline and diesel, has begun to surge. The strikes are achieving the very objectives that Ukraine’s Western partners set but largely failed to meet through sanctions and a price cap on Russian oil: to degrade Russia’s financial and logistical ability to wage war while limiting broader damage to the global economy. Kyiv must take wins where it can, and a campaign to destroy Russia’s oil-refining capacity brings benefits to Ukraine with limited risk.

Ukraine has so far concentrated its attacks on Russian oil refineries, not oil fields or crude oil export infrastructure. The distinction is important. After oil is extracted from a well, it is transported through pipelines and other infrastructure to refineries, where it is converted into products to be distributed to end users. In 2023, Russia extracted an estimated 10.1 million barrels of oil per day. Of this, around 50 percent was exported to refineries abroad, and the remaining 50 percent was refined domestically, creating products such as gasoline, diesel, aviation fuel, and chemical feedstocks. Half these refined products were consumed domestically, with a substantial proportion diverted to fuel the Russian war machine. Russia also sells refined oil products abroad—the country was responsible for around ten percent of the world’s seaborne exports in 2023—but most Western countries have already stopped importing refined Russian fuel. The top destinations for Russia’s refined oil products are Turkey, China, and Brazil, though Russia has also been selling fuel to North Korea, in violation of UN sanctions, in exchange for munitions.

The Ukrainian strikes have dealt a significant blow to Russia’s refining capacity, knocking out up to 900,000 barrels per day. Repairs will be slow and expensive, in part because refinery stacks—where oil is distilled into its constituent parts—are huge and complex pieces of equipment that take years to design and build, and in part because Western sanctions are hampering Russian firms’ access to specialized components.

Russia’s oil storage capacity is limited. When a refinery is destroyed or damaged, therefore, extracted crude oil cannot simply be stocked for later use. This leaves Russian producers with just two options: increasing exports of crude oil or shutting wells and reducing production.

Data from recent months confirm that, as expected, Russia is exporting more crude oil at the same time that its refined fuel exports have hit near-historic lows. Moscow exported just over 712,000 tons of diesel and other petroleum products in the last week of April, a drop from more than 844,000 tons in the same week in 2023. Monthly exports of crude oil, however, increased by nine percent from February to March, reaching their highest level in nine months and their third highest since Western sanctions on Russian crude oil took effect in December 2022. The strikes have had no discernible effect on international crude oil prices, which remained stable until the end of March, when Russia cut its output under a preexisting agreement with OPEC.

Western markets may not be hurting, but Russia is feeling the pinch. Since the Ukrainian strikes began, diesel production has fallen by 16 percent and gasoline production by nine percent. The average weekly wholesale price of gasoline and diesel in western Russia rose by 23 percent and 47 percent, respectively, between the end of 2023 and mid-March. In April, the cost of gasoline hit a six-month high, up more than 20 percent from the start of the year. Russia imported 3,000 tons of fuel from Belarus in the first half of March—up from zero in January—and the Kremlin has been forced to ask Kazakhstan to ready 100,000 tons of gasoline for supply in case of shortages.

Ukraine’s campaign is working. It is inflicting pain on Russian energy markets, and it is putting exactly the kind of pressure on Moscow that the U.S.-led sanctions regime was designed for but has had limited success in delivering.

In the early months of the war, the Biden administration assembled a coalition of countries to impose economic penalties on Russia, including a price cap on Russian crude oil exports. The idea behind the price cap was to set it high enough that Russia would keep oil flowing, helping avoid a global recession, but low enough to depress Russia’s export earnings. In practice, inconsistent enforcement and monitoring have undermined the price cap’s effectiveness: Russia’s federal revenues hit a record $320 billion in 2023. The price cap may also have been set too high. A recent assessment by the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air, a Finnish think tank, determined that a lower rate could have slashed Russia’s oil export revenues by 25 percent between December 2022 and March 2024 without pushing Russian companies to shut off the taps. The EU and G-7 shipping industry, meanwhile, is still deeply entwined with Russia’s exports. In March this year, 46 percent of Russian oil shipments were carried on ships owned or insured in G-7 and EU countries, and some Western tankers have continued to transport oil priced above the cap.

Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries are now doing what the sanctions regime has not. Without compromising global energy supply or driving up prices, the attacks are eating into Russian revenues and curtailing Russia’s ability to turn crude oil into the kinds of fuel that tanks and planes need to run. As long as Ukrainian forces avoid hitting crude oil pipelines or major crude oil export terminals, they can maintain this balance.

The current strategy comes with limited risks. Ukrainian drones have generally been hitting their targets at night, causing few, if any, civilian casualties. As long as Ukraine continues to weigh potential harms to noncombatants every time it approves a strike, it should stay on the right side of international law. Targeting an industry that directly contributes to Russian military power is a reasonable wartime measure—one that past belligerents, such as the United States, have employed before, including in its recent operations against the Islamic State.

Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries also seem unlikely to widen the conflict. At the very least, Russia will struggle to escalate in kind, given its long-running and far broader campaign to destroy Ukraine’s energy infrastructure: its forces destroyed Ukraine’s Kremenchuk oil refinery within weeks of the 2022 invasion, and the Ukrainian energy minister has said that Russian strikes earlier this year hit up to 80 percent of Ukraine’s conventional thermal power plants. Rather than threatening escalation in response to Ukraine’s strikes, the Kremlin has tended to play down their effects to avoid embarrassment.

To keep the risks low, the United States should neither help Ukraine proceed with these attacks nor even publicly encourage them. But nor should it try to dissuade Kyiv from this course of action. Despite the U.S. Congress’s recent approval of $61 billion in military aid, Ukraine is at its most fragile point in more than two years. Strikes on Russian refineries alone will not force Moscow to capitulate, but they do make the war more difficult and expensive for Russia—and so, if nothing else, when the time comes for negotiations, they may push the Kremlin to make concessions.

Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

Destroyed Russian BUK air defence system equipment, presumably 9A39 of BUK-M1. As said:

“Due to a mistake made by the crew, the vehicle started to catch fire. Which led to the explosion of the loaded missiles. The crew was not injured. The exact date is unknown. Near Pology,… pic.twitter.com/BL1z9YXdod

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 8, 2024

Destroyed Russian BUK air defence system equipment, presumably 9A39 of BUK-M1. As said:

“Due to a mistake made by the crew, the vehicle started to catch fire. Which led to the explosion of the loaded missiles. The crew was not injured. The exact date is unknown. Near Pology, Zaporizhzhia region.”

https://t.me/dosye_shpiona/52

In addition to the topic of Russian assaults on motorcycles. Detailed video of how the attack of two Russian motorcyclists took place. Zaporizhzhia Front. https://t.co/9uLQQYv0Fo https://t.co/nj7feEIPra pic.twitter.com/uhzpaJ2ICT

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 8, 2024

The Avdiivka front:

The battle between Bradley IFV of the 47th Brigade of Ukraine and Russian T-80 tank. T-80 was disabled by a TOW anti-tank missile fired by the Bradley crew. Avdiivka front. https://t.co/fmZ5xNZKry pic.twitter.com/sXK6bI9a7V

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 8, 2024

Krasnodar Krai, Russia:

/1. Drone attack on Russian oil depot in the Krasnodar region is reported. Presumably in Yurovka village. There are multiple oil depots in the area, which of them was targeted is unclear. 300 from the frontline. pic.twitter.com/vfbR72wfFM

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 9, 2024

Just a brief update on what is going on in Georgia. From the Thread Reader App:

Things have been developing quickly over the past 2-3 weeks in Georgia, but in the last couple of days, they have progressed at an unimaginable speed. The ruling Georgian Dream party has employed various tactics targeting civil society, escalating to an extreme level. 1/6 

Exclusive know-how: 100s, if not 1000s, of people—activists, NGO reprs, media, and their families—are receiving calls from foreign cell numbers, with insults and threats. This is very likely a coordinated and centralized effort to sow fear and intimidate civil society. 2/6 

An increasing number of physical attacks on representatives of NGOs, media, and teachers, either in the streets or at their homes, have been reported. They are being attacked by so-called Titushky. 3/6

The ruling Georgian Dream party is not even waiting for the passage of the Russian-style foreign agents law, it’s already operational. Today, they announced the creation of a database (a kind of enemy/blacklist) where they will place all individuals undesirable to them. 4/6 

Following this statement, at least two Telegram channels were launched today that began leaking personal information, including the addresses and phone numbers of representatives of NGOs, media, activists, etc. 5/6 

There’s already massive terrorising happening in Georgia and the Russian copy-pasta Agents Law is not even passed yet. 6/6

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new tweets from Patron today, so here is some adjacent material.

New life on frontline pic.twitter.com/bHqURZKnXS

— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) April 30, 2024

Family pic.twitter.com/9SbzXPuWSa

— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) April 22, 2024

The dog runs after the Ukrainian border guards who are going on a mission.
The dog Elsa is a friend of the 🇺🇦 border guards. pic.twitter.com/ZkBwPUYFn8

— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) April 19, 2024

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:

@patron__dsns

Бажаю кожному знайти людину, поряд з якою вам буде всеодно на будь-який прогноз погоди❤️

♬ оригинальный звук – mushellppp

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

I wish everyone to find a person with whom you don’t care about any weather forecast ❤️

Open thread!