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War for Ukraine Day 797: Another Monday, Another Bombardment of Kharkiv

by Adam L Silverman|  April 29, 20247:08 pm| 47 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War in Ukraine

Painting by NEIVANMADE. It has a white background an in the center are Soldiers in green doing air defense by firing at incoming Russian missiles in the upper right. The missiles are red and yellow. In the upper left, written in green, is the text: "SAVE THE BRAVEST PEOPLE IN THE WORLD!" Below the Soldiers, also written in green, is "SUPPORT FOR KHARKIV"

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Before we begin, two quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is hanging in there. The good news is that after two chemo treatments her lymph nodes have shrunk back to normal size. The bad news is that she’s had a very strong reaction to the two chemo treatments. As a result, she had a rough weekend. The oncology vet, who is excellent, decided today that they would give her treatments to ensure she’s fully hydrated, treat her irritated stomach/GI system, try to stimulate her appetite, and just do overall system support. The difference between before and after her visit is very clear. She’s eating again, though we’re keeping it to a small amount for tonight. Provided she continues to stabilize and strengthen back up, they’ll give her her next chemo treatment next week.

Second, as you can imagine, because she had a long weekend, I had a long, worrisome, and not very restful weekend. I want to apologize if I have been overly curt, cranky, and irritable – as in more than my usual sterling and pleasant personality – over the last couple of days.

The Russians once again started the week by bombarding Kharkiv.

Update from Kharkiv: Two attacks hit the city, with one striking near the dog shelter. At least five gliding bombs targeted the region. Settlements near Kupiansk endured heavy artillery fire. pic.twitter.com/y9iiWMb2rI

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) April 29, 2024

As long as 🇷🇺 aircraft freely roam the skies, Kharkiv Obl will endure daily bombardments. Today, 🇷🇺 struck Kharkiv twice, injuring a civilian & damaging an apartment building. These deadly aircraft should fear approaching, knowing they risk being downed, only this can deter them. pic.twitter.com/PRpv2uTa52

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) April 29, 2024

They also hit Odesa. As of now the butcher’s bill is four dead people, one dead dog who was killed while out for a walk – the human survived, and twenty-seven wounded. Among the wounded are two children and a pregnant woman.

A tragic day for #Odesa.#Russian forces launched a ballistic missile, reportedly containing cluster munitions, at one of the city's most popular locations among residents and visitors.

As of 10 PM Kyiv time, four people were reported killed as a result of the missile hit. One… pic.twitter.com/ikP84A7CbP

— UkraineWorld (@ukraine_world) April 29, 2024

A tragic day for #Odesa.

#Russian forces launched a ballistic missile, reportedly containing cluster munitions, at one of the city’s most popular locations among residents and visitors.

As of 10 PM Kyiv time, four people were reported killed as a result of the missile hit. One more man died due to a stroke.

A total of 32 people were wounded, with 25 currently hospitalized, including two children and a pregnant woman.

One girl, not yet five years old, is in extremely critical condition. Six more adults are also in intensive care, according to Oleh Kiper’s report.

#RussiaIsATerroristState

 

Ukrainian air defence missile chasing Russian cruise missile, presumably Kh-101. pic.twitter.com/ht5YFosor0

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 29, 2024

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

All Intelligence Agencies of Our Partners are Informed of the Current Threats and Prospects – Address by the President

29 April 2024 – 21:46

Dear Ukrainians!

I have just received reports on the situation in Odesa following a Russian missile strike and in Kharkiv following a Russian guided aerial bomb strike. Unfortunately, there are fatalities in Odesa. My condolences to the families and friends. Many people have been wounded – all of them are being provided with medical aid. Local services and rescuers of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine responded immediately. It is important that all services, all our people, on whose work the lives of Ukrainians depend, are as efficient and fast as possible. Prompt assistance and protection of life that is timely and courageous enough are what help us all in Ukraine to endure.

Today, we talked a lot about speed in our negotiations with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. Timely delivery of weapons to our warriors, timely and sufficient decisions on air defense for Ukraine are what we need right now to protect lives. Especially since our partners really have all the necessary systems, really have all the necessary quality of weapons, so that our warriors can operate much more effectively. I thank Jens for his understanding and willingness to help. The daily Russian missile attacks, as well as the daily attempts of the occupier to destroy more of our positions, can all be stopped. The Russian offensive plans can be thwarted. For this, Ukrainian strength must be backed up by sufficient support from partners: “Patriots” that are needed here, the 155 mm caliber that must sound as strong as possible at the front, the weapons with sufficient range that can and must destroy Russian logistics. All intelligence agencies of our partners are informed of the current threats and prospects. We must do everything to achieve our goals – the common goals of everyone in the world who despises terrorists.

Today, I also held a meeting of the Staff. The Commander-in-Chief delivered a detailed report. The frontline. Our positions. The hottest areas. The supplies we expect. There was also a report by the Chief of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, the Head of the Security Service of Ukraine, and representatives of the Coordination Headquarters on negotiations for the release of POWs. It is extremely important for our state to maintain clear communication with the families of the POWs. There must be clarity, to the extent possible, regarding each name, each person, regarding the measures being taken to bring our people home.

I thank everyone who truly cares about our people and our entire country, I thank everyone who helps Ukraine! I thank everyone who fights against Russian evil.

Glory to Ukraine!

The reason:

A daughter got to see her Warrior Dad. But only for a moment.

📹: yrec228/tiktok pic.twitter.com/3jvTAm7xBz

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) April 29, 2024

Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania:

The foreign ministers of all thre Baltic states are now linking the Russian GPS jamming with risks of an air disaster.
During weekend, the jamming forced two Finnish flights to turn around and the Tartu – Helsinki line is now under threat of closing. https://t.co/M105wTByu6

— auonsson (@auonsson) April 29, 2024

From The Financial Times via the Internet Archive:

Baltic ministers have warned that GPS jamming blamed on Russia risks causing an air disaster after the interference with navigation signals forced two Finnish flights to turn around mid-journey.

The foreign ministers of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania all warned separately at the weekend of the dangers of GPS jamming across the Baltic Sea region, which has increased in recent weeks.

On Thursday and Friday, two Finnair flights from Helsinki to the Estonian city of Tartu were forced by the GPS jamming to turn around and return to Finland as they were unable to navigate safely to their planned destination.

“If someone turns off your headlights while you’re driving at night, it gets dangerous. Things in the Baltic region near Russian borders are now getting too dangerous to ignore,” Gabrielius Landsbergis, Lithuania’s foreign minister, told the Financial Times.

Margus Tsahkna, Estonia’s foreign minister, added: “We consider what is happening with GPS as part of Russia’s hostile activities, and we will definitely discuss it with our allies.

“Such actions are a hybrid attack and are a threat to our people and security, and we will not tolerate them.”

Tens of thousands of civilian flights have been affected by the GPS jamming in recent months, according to experts. The jamming, which affects all GPS users in the area when it is in operation, has also impeded signals used by boats in the Baltic Sea, leading to warnings from the Swedish navy about the safety of shipping.

GPS jamming is easy to conduct with relatively cheap equipment, according to experts.

No country has acknowledged being behind the interference with signals in the Baltics, but officials in the region said there was little doubt that Russia was behind the jamming both from its mainland and its exclave of Kaliningrad, nestled between Poland and Lithuania on the Baltic Sea.

A senior official said one theory was that Russia was trying to protect Kaliningrad from potential attacks by Ukrainian drones.

The Kremlin did not respond to a request for comment.

 

Australia:

Australia continues to stand with Ukraine and has announced a new military aid package worth $100 million. 

The package includes $50 million for short-range air defense systems, $30 million for uncrewed aerial systems, and $15 million for other high-priority equipment, such as… pic.twitter.com/eu2wnKAGo1

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 29, 2024

Australia continues to stand with Ukraine and has announced a new military aid package worth $100 million.

The package includes $50 million for short-range air defense systems, $30 million for uncrewed aerial systems, and $15 million for other high-priority equipment, such as combat helmets, rigid-hull inflatable boats, boots, fire masks, and generators.

We are grateful to our Australian friends for their unwavering support. Together, we are stronger!
🇺🇦🤝🇦🇺
@DefenceAust

@RichardMarlesMP

 

The Czech Republic via Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL):

Czech police confirmed on April 29 that agents of Russia’s military intelligence (GRU) were involved in two ammunition depot blasts that killed two workers near the eastern Czech village of Vrbetice in 2014. In 2021, Prague accused Moscow of being involved in the blasts and expelled several Russian diplomats. Moscow denied any involvement. The Czechs said two Russian men were involved in the explosion, identifying them as Russian citizens who have also been accused by Britain of participating in the 2018 poisoning of former Russian double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter in England. To read the original story by RFE/RL’s Russian Service, click here.

Hungary:

Yes, unlike Ukraine, Orban has been actually combating a full-scale invasion of one of the world's largest military powers with the 3rd largest war budget for two years, with millions of war refugees, entire cities wiped out, and critical infrastructure purposefully destroyed.… https://t.co/sqyWCwStO0

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) April 29, 2024

Yes, unlike Ukraine, Orban has been actually combating a full-scale invasion of one of the world’s largest military powers with the 3rd largest war budget for two years, with millions of war refugees, entire cities wiped out, and critical infrastructure purposefully destroyed.

Makes sense!

Either NY City or south Florida depending on where Rudy is holed up these days.

They just can’t quit criming

— Adam Parkhomenko (@AdamParkhomenko) April 29, 2024

Oy vey!

Marinka:

"Mariinka, a city the springtime did not come to"

A video by Babylon 13, a Ukrainian filmmaking group.

Mariinka used to be a quiet suburb of Donetsk, some 10,000 residents.

In 2014-2015, after the first Russian invasion, it ended up on the Ukrainian side of the frozen front… pic.twitter.com/pFlETTbQcY

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) April 29, 2024

“Mariinka, a city the springtime did not come to”

A video by Babylon 13, a Ukrainian filmmaking group.

Mariinka used to be a quiet suburb of Donetsk, some 10,000 residents.

In 2014-2015, after the first Russian invasion, it ended up on the Ukrainian side of the frozen front line.

It enjoyed a peaceful life for years and only sometimes heard rare distant gunshots of that pointless Russian-sponsored standoff that was only fading out without a Russian command for war.

Kinds used to go to schools, and local folks worked their jobs and elected their local administration.

And then Russia came to “liberate” Mariinka in 2022.

Now, what used to be Mariinka is under Russian occupation following nearly two years of fierce fighting.

This is the hellscape of the “Russian liberation of Ukraine.”

Population now: 0.
https://youtu.be/OBPxaNB_NUA

Kharkiv:

Two senior Ukrainian intel officials described Russia’s attacks along the frontline and missile strikes on Kharkiv as softening the battlefield before a major offensive. The officials expect Russia to launch a new large-scale assault in late May or June.https://t.co/nC3vapdpEq

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) April 29, 2024

From The Financial Times:

After Congress approved a long-delayed $61bn in US military aid to Ukraine this week, Russia gloated that advanced western weapons would not turn the tide on the battlefield.

More than at any point since Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine two years ago, Russia’s president appears “very self-assured and happy” in recent months, said a person who knows him well. “Let’s see if the military aid changes that.”

While Ukraine was running out of western aid and struggled to rotate its exhausted troops, Russia took advantage of its superior firepower and manpower and made incremental advances across the front line.

Two senior Ukrainian intelligence officials described Russia’s current attacks along key areas of the frontline and missile and drones strikes on Kharkiv and similarly important cities as softening the battlefield before a bigger offensive operation.

The officials said they expected Russia to launch a new large-scale offensive in late May or June.

After its initial blitzkrieg failed, Russia has sought to grind down Ukraine by favouring quantity over quality on the battlefield.

Russia fires five shells for each returning salvo from Ukraine’s forces, while the ratio is even higher in some flashpoints along the line of contact, according to Dara Massicot, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace who studies the Russian military.

“The aid won’t cancel out Russian advantages this year, but it will allow Ukrainian forces to defend their positions with counter-battery fires and can be used to slow or halt Russian advances,” Massicot said.

Boosted by a record Rbs10.8tn ($118.5bn) in spending on defence this year — six per cent of gross domestic product — Russia’s arms industry has built up production several times over, with factories working around the clock, according to officials.

Sergei Chemezov, head of Rostec, the state defence conglomerate, last November said Russia was making 2.5 times more artillery and multiple launch systems than before, while increasing production of some types of ammunition by more than 60 times.

Those sheer numbers, however, mask Moscow’s inability to turn that firepower into a significant breakthrough — something Russian experts say it could only do with more advanced weaponry.

More at the link.

The Carnegie Endowment’s Dara Massicot has a new assessment of the potential Russian spring/summer offensive and the potential effects of the US military aid finally making it to Ukraine. From the Thread Reader App:

The U.S. supplemental has passed and aid is on the way to Ukrainian frontlines. But months of delay for ammo and manpower have come at a cost. Problems cannot easily be undone, especially in Donetsk. A brief thread on what Russian decisions say about their summer plans. 🧵 
First, Russia’s efforts suggest their priority remains advancing to the borders of Donetsk, where they add reserve units, the VKS operates intensely, and where improved recon-strike (40-100km behind Ukrainian lines + SS-26 SRBM) is hitting high value assets / 2 
The situation is now critical in Chasiv Yar and this thread from @Tatarigami_UA is very useful to describe why: /3

Unroll available on Thread Reader
In the last week, Russia now has a salient near Ocheretyne, currently about 5KM x 5KM wide. Russian doctrine says that an operational breakthrough against prepared defenses is possible after fires preparation of 15-30km and a suitable reserve force is ready. 
In the last ten days, Russian forces committed 3 critical brigade elements forward – the 74th, 35th, and 30th (from 41st CAA). These forces were used in final stages of the battle of Avdiivka and have been recovering for the last month. Map @InkvisiitImage
These experienced brigade elements are supported by various DPR and reserve units. Concentrating them in the salient is indicative of the priority of this effort. Also, if Ukrainian forces can target them, they could degrade some of the most skilled brigades there. 
The 74th just raised a flag at Berdychi, Gen Syrskyi said units withdrew from there in advance.

https://x.com/moklasen/status/1784244505274733@002

Thoughts from @inkvisiit on defensive challenges that could await Russian forces next, although these defensive positions are in various stages of readiness and Ukrainian units are understrength. @bradyafr also does great work on this.

Unroll available on Thread Reader
Russian forces edge closer to Pokrovsk. If they achieve that objective and control the roads (or have fire control of them), the situation becomes very difficult for Ukrainian forces in Donetsk, leaving only a few strongholds near Kramatorsk – Sloviansk.

Unroll available on Thread Reader
While ammunition availability will begin to improve shortly, manpower is still an unresolved challenge to frontline units, especially against the weight of this Russian effort in Donetsk.

What of the talk of a large Russian offensive this summer? Russian actions and posture suggests Donetsk is the priority. Russian discussions of a “sanitary zone” of indeterminate depth near Kharkiv are also concerning; as are strikes; but i can’t determine that its resourced. 
What about a renewed offensive from Russia this summer/fall? To answer, it will be important to survey border areas (and major training grounds, and repair facilities) to see what sort of reserve pipeline is underway now – or not. 
Russian mobilization probably deserves its own thread because its requirements are contingent on multiple moving parts. for now, i would say that there is not an imminent or critical need for mobilized manpower to hold Russian lines, as they faced in the summer of 2022. 
It’s also important to zoom out of the frontline a bit to put this recent Donetsk activity in perspective. The Donetsk region is not stable for Ukrainian forces but there are other areas where Russian advances are slow or holding.

Unroll available on Thread Reader
I recommend reading this thoughtful thread from @ralee85 for his reactions to the supplemental and the urgent manpower issues for the Ukrainian Armed Forces that can’t be pushed aside.

Unroll available on Thread Reader
In sum, delays in manpower and ammunition replenishment have come with a cost on the battlefield. In this moment, Russian commanders are trying to achieve progress before their opportunities are reduced by more ammunition the hands of Ukrainian units. / end 

Ukrainian (free) Donetsk:

This is 97-year-old Lidiia Stepanivna. She walked 10 kilometers to get out of the occupied part of the village of Ocheretyne, Donetsk region.

Mrs Lidiia walked the whole day without food or water. She came under heavy fire at least twice. She shared that several times, she fell… https://t.co/fCNHPUnwXS pic.twitter.com/BGHXeGvW5h

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) April 29, 2024

This is 97-year-old Lidiia Stepanivna. She walked 10 kilometers to get out of the occupied part of the village of Ocheretyne, Donetsk region.

Mrs Lidiia walked the whole day without food or water. She came under heavy fire at least twice. She shared that several times, she fell down, slept, then woke up and started walking again.

In the evening, our military found her. The “White Angel” police crew took Lidiia Stepanivna to a shelter for evacuees, where she received all the necessary assistance.

 

The Bakhmut front:

Russians use of ‘turtle’ tanks in attacks spread to the Bakhmut front. https://t.co/ZtIVa4jXR2 pic.twitter.com/aXSAcDFcxP

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 29, 2024

As said, a Russian BMP that was captured today. Eastern front (presumably bakhmut area). https://t.co/EiP0WdkCvT pic.twitter.com/5iaEv2tJmp

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 29, 2024

/3. Another interesting detail is that the BMP-1 is completely sealed on all sides and in the front with anti drone cages. This means that it cannot use its gun at all. pic.twitter.com/TQtRtXakD1

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 29, 2024

 

The Republic of Karachaevo-Cherkessiya, Russia:

Southern Russian republic of Karachaevo-Cherkessiya: on the night of 29 April, a group of individuals attacked a road police unit, killing at least two and wounding four policemen.

The attackers drove up to the post in the village of Mara-Ayagy in a VAZ-2109 vehicle, threw an… pic.twitter.com/QENvfGUqR4

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) April 29, 2024

Southern Russian republic of Karachaevo-Cherkessiya: on the night of 29 April, a group of individuals attacked a road police unit, killing at least two and wounding four policemen.

The attackers drove up to the post in the village of Mara-Ayagy in a VAZ-2109 vehicle, threw an IED at the officers and opened fire. A shootout began and a second explosive device went off on one of the criminals.

Five attackers were killed by return fire. They have been identified as a group that carried out another attack on police just a week ago, on 22 April.

An extremely worrying trend for Russia in the wake of the Crocus City Hall attack and rumours of neighbouring Chechnya’s [Ichkeria] Ramzan Kadyrov’s looming health issues, threatening to plunge the region into chaos.

 

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

First some adjacent material.

This family evacuated from Bakhmut about a year and a half ago. They brought all their pets with them.

They now live and work all together in an animal shelter.

Russia has brought so much suffering to our people.

📹: Suspilne pic.twitter.com/DteTvHFiZN

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) April 29, 2024

Georgia, you are so courageous. Let no one say you are small or defenseless, or someone can dictate to you. You are a great country with a great history, where our common enemy has always sought to interfere by force. ბრძოლებით შეგეძლებათ – დაგეგმებთ #Georgia #NoToRussianLaw https://t.co/jUMhpE81Nu

— Patron (@PatronDsns) April 28, 2024

The Georgian at the end of Patron’s tweet translates to:

You will be able to fight – you will plan

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 797: Another Monday, Another Bombardment of KharkivPost + Comments (47)

How About Those Cubs?

by WaterGirl|  April 29, 20246:36 pm| 54 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Uncle Joe was a catch!

why do they make him sound cool as hell pic.twitter.com/40reikNPwV

— James Line (@jameslineky) April 26, 2024

 

How About Those Cubs?Post + Comments (54)

A Couple of Thoughts on Kristi and Her Pets

by @heymistermix.com|  April 29, 20246:09 pm| 83 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

A Couple of Thoughts on Kristi and Her Pets
Courtesy of Atrios via someone who chooses to remain anonymous. From l-r, Bryon Noem, (her husband) Cory Lewandowski and Poor Cricket.

My dad grew up on a farm in the Dakotas and has some stories about animal cruelty that are really awful.  His dad, my grandfather, would take care of the excess kitten population by putting them in a burlap sack and throwing them in the river.  Dogs were routinely euthanized by shooting them when they could no longer provide service.  I’m sure that a dog that killed chickens (which is what Kristi Noem’s dog did) would have been shot as soon as they caught him or her.   I  don’t think that my dad’s family were outliers here.  My father-in-law, also a Dakota farmer, had about the same attitude towards dogs and cats.  The real outlier was wife’s grandfather, another Dakota farmer, a gentle man who took exceptionally (for the time) good care of his dogs as well as any other animal on his farm.

The second experience I’ve had growing up is watching hunters who keep dogs.  These people keep their retrievers in pens/runs, frustrated and barking all the time, until hunting season.  I’m sure there’s some training involved, but those dogs have what I’d consider a miserable life except for the few days when they’re out doing what they were bred to do.  I’ll bet you a shiny South Dakota quarter, which features both a pheasant and Mt. Rushmore, that Kristi’s un-neutered dog Cricket spent most of his life in a pen waiting to retrieve pheasants.

So, when Noem shares an anecdote about killing 14 month-old Cricket after he she killed some chickens and bit her, she’s speaking to two specific audiences.  The first is an audience informed by the same life experience I’ve had*:  people who know that farmers treat dogs like livestock and understand that a dog that can’t do their job needs to be euthanized.  This audience is generally white, mostly male, older, with a background either working on a farm or having parents/grandparents who worked on the farm.  It is also a tiny audience, mostly living in red states where Trump will win even if he was caught engaging in human sacrifice.  The second is a bunch of cruel, heartless fucking sadists.  Donald Trump is in the latter group.

Unfortunately for term-limited Gov. Noem, she miscalculated.  She looked at the way the DC press treats country folk (condescending but afraid to challenge their quaint country traditions) and thought she’d get some “well she’s authentic” coverage.  She also didn’t figure that the Guardian, which is based in a country with a long record of humane treatment of animals, would read her book and break the story with a critical eye.

In other words, cucking her husband with Corey Lewandowski, making a commercial for the dental clinic that did her veneers, and generally being an awful person, weren’t enough to sink her VP bid.  I’m guessing Trump’s reaction to the bad PR she’s getting because she bragged about killing her dog 20 years ago (and a goat) probably did it, but predictions are hard, especially about the future.

———–

*Just to be clear, I had that life experience and concluded that I think this treatment of dogs is a cruel anachronism. I had to have our dog euthanized by the vet when she was diagnosed with incurable liver cancer, and it was a terrible experience that I never want to repeat.

A Couple of Thoughts on Kristi and Her PetsPost + Comments (83)

Tuesday Monday Evening Open Thread: Nancy Pelosi, Still Fighting the Idiots

by Anne Laurie|  April 29, 20245:23 pm| 65 Comments

This post is in: Elections 2024, NANCY SMASH!, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Readership Capture, Our Failed Media Experiment

BREAKING: Nancy Pelosi just exposed Donald Trump as the worst job creating President in American history. Retweet to make sure everyone sees this. pic.twitter.com/eZGdWE2dxv

— Biden’s Wins (@BidensWins) April 29, 2024

I don’t think whining about how badly the pandemic went for TFG is a winning argument, but sure, Katy Tur, fight for the guy who tried to sicc his mob on you.

Pelosi’s just back a tour of Ireland and Britain:

Nancy Pelosi warned repeatedly about the dangers of a second Trump term during a series of engagements in Dublin, including a round-table interview with journalists at the US ambassador’s residence in the Phoenix Park on Monday morning https://t.co/Ww1WvjUmCs

— The Irish Times (@IrishTimes) April 22, 2024

I love when stupid questions get batted back with this level of calm vitriol. Nancy Pelosi is a class act. ???????????????????????????????????????????????? pic.twitter.com/jy4fxeCQJo

— Nick O'Donnell (@gnickodonnell) April 28, 2024

ETA: Let’s not forget:

It is essential to remind people how badly Trump botched the response to COVID. https://t.co/mUk6YJrIRF

— Jack Pitney (@jpitney) April 29, 2024

<del>Tuesday</del> Monday Evening Open Thread: Nancy Pelosi, Still Fighting the IdiotsPost + Comments (65)

There Be Dragons (Open Thread)

by Betty Cracker|  April 29, 20242:20 pm| 185 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, TV & Movies

We saw this medium-sized gator sunning in a muddy spot yesterday. From a distance and through the screen, I couldn’t tell what the spherical object next to it was. But upon application of a long-distance lens, I identified the object tentatively as an apple snail shell, extra large:

Gator sunning with snail shell

There were other snail shells strewn about, with the gator in the center like a dragon guarding its treasure. The muddy spot is a favorite of wading birds like herons, egrets, Limpkins, spoonies, etc., but not when the gator is holding court.

***

Having caught up with “Franklin” on Apple TV, I’m in a show hole. Can anyone recommend some compelling programs to stream? I’ve heard “Deadloch” (Amazon) is pretty good if you like a spoof of atmospheric British police procedurals. I am a fan of that genre so intend to check it out. Also, HBO’s “Hacks” will be back this week. Yay!

Other than that, we’ve been mostly watching baseball, and it’s not going well for our team. It’s still early yet. I am not panicking.

Open thread!

There Be Dragons (Open Thread)Post + Comments (185)

Monday Morning Open Thread

by WaterGirl|  April 29, 202411:48 am| 113 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, War in Ukraine

Food for thought.

Let’s talk Ukraine.

There’s a lot of analysis out there that I believe is driven by a fundamental misunderstanding of the way Russia fights wars.

Bottom line up front: Russia’s current goals in Ukraine aren’t necessarily victory, at least not in the traditional military…

— Angry Staffer 🌻 (@Angry_Staffer) April 26, 2024

Here’s the entire contents of the tweet.  (just below)

I found it interesting and approachable, but not overwhelming, and I thought it might generate some good discussion.

Angry Staffer
11:47 AM · Apr 26, 2024

Let’s talk Ukraine.

There’s a lot of analysis out there that I believe is driven by a fundamental misunderstanding of the way Russia fights wars.

Bottom line up front: Russia’s current goals in Ukraine aren’t necessarily victory, at least not in the traditional military sense.

We’ve seen evidence of this since even before Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. More on that later.

Would Putin like to “get the gang back together” and continue rebuilding his sphere of influence in the former Soviet states? Absolutely. Is that his primary goal? Not even close.

Putin’s stated goal for decades has been preventing NATO expansion, which he views as an existential threat to the Russian Federation’s survival. His “special military operation” obviously failed spectacularly in this regard.

Putin was furious when Estonia and Latvia joined NATO; he’s clearly not happy about Finland and Sweden joining either, but Ukraine? Ukraine would be the ultimate insult.

So what’s the best way to keep Ukraine from joining NATO?

– You could corrupt their electoral process and install a puppet. They tried that and failed.

– You could conquer the whole country. They tried that and failed.

– You could keep them in a perpetual state of warfare—a stalemate and a war of attrition—knowing that NATO won’t allow them in while they’re tied up in a hot war. That’s where we’re at now.

Back to how we’ve seen these signs since at least Crimea:

To put these datapoints together, it’s important to understand how invested Russia is in their nonlinear war strategy.

In 2014, after Yanukovych was ousted, sentiment was that Ukraine would gravitate more towards NATO. Putin immediately moved to annex Crimea.

In April 2014, the Crimea occupation evolved into fighting in Donbas, and thus began the perpetual conflict strategy.

In 2015-2016, Russia was working on two additional fronts: devastating Ukrainian critical infrastructure with a barrage of cyber attacks, and interfering in our Presidential election.

For context here: remember some of Russia’s goals with their 2016 influence operation:

– hurt US support for Ukraine (they did that when Trump and Manafort forced a massive change in RNC Ukraine policy)

– denigrate Hillary Clinton with the goal of hurting her Presidency, or electing Donald Trump

– They had a clear preference for Trump, and after watching Trump get impeached for trying to extort Zelenskyy, it’s clear why:

Electing Trump furthered their goal of keeping Ukraine in conflict indefinitely.

To be clear, in February 2022, Russia seems to have shifted their goals temporarily; hey legitimately thought they could take Kyiv in a 3-Day operation, in what has to be one of the biggest intelligence failures in history.

Now they’re back to plan stalemate. Some of this is because they know if Trump gets elected in 2024, US support for Ukraine (and probably NATO) will end.

With this understanding of Russia’s goals, the way forward is pretty clear in my eyes:

We give Ukraine what they need to win. Immediately. Simply giving them enough to defend themselves only acts to further Russia’s goals of a tactical stalemate.

A tactical stalemate will never put enough pressure on Putin to force an end to this war. We have to stop being risk averse and let Ukraine go on offense.

This last aid package — combined with EU support — goes a long way towards advancing this capability, but we still have work to do.

Totally open thread.

Monday Morning Open ThreadPost + Comments (113)

Where WERE you, sweet meteor?

by Betty Cracker|  April 29, 202410:01 am| 128 Comments

This post is in: Elections 2024, Open Threads, Politics, Republican Stupidity

Two of the most gargantuan, gaping assholes in Florida collided yesterday, and all I could think of when reading about it was the sad absence of a meteor. Gift link from the Post:

Former president Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis met privately Sunday morning in Miami, according to people familiar with the matter, breaking a years-long chill between the presumptive Republican nominee and his onetime chief primary rival…

The meeting was orchestrated by Steve Witkoff, a Florida real estate investor and developer both men know, and he attended. Witkoff called the former president’s team and asked for him to meet with DeSantis, a person familiar with the matter said.

Trump and DeSantis had not spoken since the end of a bruising primary season, where DeSantis dropped out after a disappointing finish in Iowa, following months of attacks from Trump and his supporters.

Trump, DeSantis and a mindbogglingly corrupt developer/GOP donor together in the same location? In Miami? And no (highly localized) destruction raining down from the sky? Thanks for nothing, Oort Cloud!

The newsiest bit of the article is toward the end, where reporter Josh Dawsey describes a scene reminiscent of a mob boss in straightened circumstances leaning on a discredited goon in his hour of need:

In recent weeks, DeSantis held an event for donors at a resort in Florida, and people close to him said he is potentially interested in running for president again in 2028. During the Republican primary, Trump told advisers he wanted to hurt DeSantis for 2028, too. But he has moved his focus on to Biden and his criminal trial in recent weeks, and Trump allies say he would favorably view DeSantis raising money for him.

Trump would welcome donations from Old Scratch himself, so that hardly needed to be said. For me, the amusing subtext is that DeSantis is caught in yet another ambition trap. His life has become a hellscape of ambition traps, where he’s forced to suck up to odious people and adopt unnatural mannerisms and wear strange articles of clothing in a fruitless quest for the White House.

I think the frustration of being caught in these traps accounts for the undercurrent of fury that’s always just below the surface with DeSantis, whether he’s awkwardly navigating a stage wearing wedge heels in cowboy-boot wrappers or raring back like an aggressive baboon to boom fake laughter at startled Iowans.

DeSantis laughing awkwardly at Iowa event

On a related note, there was speculation in the morning thread about Trump doing time. I still think that’s extremely unlikely, even if he loses the election (which I think he will) and is convicted on at least some counts. But he’s a miserable sumbitch right now too, and so is DeSantis. That’s real, so I will savor it.

Open thread.

Where WERE you, sweet meteor?Post + Comments (128)

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