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Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

I am pretty sure these ‘journalists’ were not always such a bootlicking sycophants.

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Open Threads

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War for Ukraine Day 753: The Starlink Snowflake Is Allowed To Move Into Geospatial Intelligence

by Adam L Silverman|  March 17, 20247:12 pm| 35 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Israel, Military, Open Threads, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

I’m still exhausted. So this is going to be as brief as I can make it. I apologize in advance for my exceedingly exhaustion driven short temper.

Odesa once again came under Russian attack overnight. Fortunately it was just drones and not cruise missiles.

Overnight, our air defenders shot down 14 of 16 russia’s Shahed drones launched to strike the Odesa region.

📹: Commander of Ukraine's Air Force pic.twitter.com/IImIlf1zm8

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 17, 2024

The Biden administration has decided to give known security risk, drug addict, neo-NAZI, racist eugencist, insider threat, and overall anti-American oligarch Elon Musk a contract to do geo-spatial intelligence.

Reuters has the details:

WASHINGTON, March 16 (Reuters) – SpaceX is building a network of hundreds of spy satellites under a classified contract with a U.S. intelligence agency, five sources familiar with the program said, demonstrating deepening ties between billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk’s space company and national security agencies.

The network is being built by SpaceX’s Starshield business unit under a $1.8 billion contract signed in 2021 with the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO), an intelligence agency that manages spy satellites, the sources said.

The plans show the extent of SpaceX’s involvement in U.S. intelligence and military projects and illustrate a deeper Pentagon investment into vast, low-Earth orbiting satellite systems aimed at supporting ground forces.

If successful, the sources said the program would significantly advance the ability of the U.S. government and military to quickly spot potential targets almost anywhere on the globe.

The contract signals growing trust by the intelligence establishment of a company whose owner has clashed with the Biden administration and sparked controversy, opens new tab over the use of Starlink satellite connectivity in the Ukraine war, the sources said.

The Wall Street Journal reported, opens new tab in February the existence of a $1.8 billion classified Starshield contract with an unknown intelligence agency without detailing the purposes of the program.

Reuters reporting discloses for the first time that the SpaceX contract is for a powerful new spy system with hundreds of satellites bearing Earth-imaging capabilities that can operate as a swarm in low orbits, and that the spy agency that Musk’s company is working with is the NRO.

Reuters was unable to determine when the new network of satellites would come online and could not establish what other companies are part of the program with their own contracts.

SpaceX, the world’s largest satellite operator, did not respond to several requests for comment about the contract, its role in it and details on satellite launches. The Pentagon referred a request for comment to the NRO and SpaceX.

In a statement the NRO acknowledged its mission to develop a sophisticated satellite system and its partnerships with other government agencies, companies, research institutions and nations, but declined to comment on Reuters’ findings about the extent of SpaceX’s involvement in the effort.

“The National Reconnaissance Office is developing the most capable, diverse, and resilient space-based intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance system the world has ever seen,” a spokesperson said.

The satellites can track targets on the ground and share that data with U.S. intelligence and military officials, the sources said. In principle, that would enable the U.S. government to quickly capture continuous imagery of activities on the ground nearly anywhere on the globe, aiding intelligence and military operations, they added.

Roughly a dozen prototypes have been launched since 2020, among other satellites on SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rockets, three of the sources said.

Much more at the link!

Why is the Biden administration doing something this stupid? Here’s why:

“Even though Musk is not technically a diplomat or statesman, I felt it was important to treat him as such, given the influence he had on this issue,” Kahl told me.

Biden’s senior national security appointments: the gifts that keep on giving to dictators, tyrants, authoritarians, oligarchs, and kleptocrats. During the Obama administration these idiots allowed Theil a contract for Palantir that gave Palantir control of all the intelligence that was loaded into the system. So Theil and his companies own all of that, not the US government. The learning curve is flat.

More analysis on this after the jump.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

Right now, it is the Ukrainian defense in this war that is determining whether Putin will succeed in expanding the zone of ruins in Europe and the world – address by the President of Ukraine

17 March 2024 – 19:59

Dear Ukrainians!

A summary of this day and week.

First of all, I would like to express gratitude to our warriors. It’s time to recognize the combat units that have proven themselves the most. Kupyansk direction – the 57th separate motorized infantry brigade named after Kish Ataman Kost Hordiienko. Lyman direction – the 1st operational brigade of the National Guard named after Hetman Petro Doroshenko “Bureviy”. Pokrovsk direction – the 55th separate artillery brigade “Zaporizhzhia Sich”. Orikhiv direction – the 118th separate mechanized brigade. And Prydniprovsky direction – the 35th separate marine brigade named after Rear Admiral Mykhailo Ostrohradsky and the 123rd separate territorial defense brigade. I thank all of you, warriors, for your strength and for the effective destruction of the occupier. I am proud of each of our warriors who achieve results for their unit, for their brothers-in-arms, for the whole of Ukraine.

I would also like to recognize all our friends in the world who have helped us this week, provided us with new support packages, and adopted new decisions for the sake of Ukrainian strength. The United States – thank you for the aid package. It is very important that stability is restored in providing support for our defense. Right now, it is our defense in this war that is determining whether Putin will succeed in expanding the zone of ruins in Europe and the world. Stopping him now is in everyone’s best interest. Denmark – thank you for another, already the 16th, package of defense assistance, for the artillery we need. Germany – thank you for your weekly steps to support our country and people. I am grateful to all the countries that joined the Czech initiative to purchase shells for Ukraine. I would also like to acknowledge Greece for its clear understanding of the threats facing everyone in Europe. Canada – I am grateful for joining our drone coalition. This is a weapon that has proven to be extremely effective. And in such difficult war conditions, the short range of our army’s capabilities is an obvious short-sightedness of some partners. I would also like to recognize French leadership in Europe today – we appreciate the way President Macron is developing a strategic perspective for Europe, a perspective of real, lasting security that is only possible through Putin’s defeat in this war.

One more thing.

These days, the Russian dictator is simulating another election. Everyone in the world understands that this figure, as has often happened in history, has simply become addicted to power and is doing everything he can to rule forever. There is no evil he will not commit to prolong his personal power. And there is no one in the world who is safe from this. I am grateful to every state, every leader, and all international organizations that have called and will continue to call a spade a spade. Everything Russia does in the occupied territory of Ukraine is a crime. There must be a just retribution for everything the Russian murderers have done in this war and for the sake of Putin’s lifelong power. He is afraid of only one thing – justice. There is no legitimacy in this imitation of elections and there cannot be. This figure must end up in the dock in The Hague – that is what we must ensure. Everyone in the world who values life and integrity.

Thank you to everyone who is with Ukraine and in Ukraine! Glory to everyone who fights and works for our country and people!

Glory to Ukraine!

Unique video of the combat mission of the pilot "Bdzholyar" (Beekeeper). 
The myth of the "Ghost of Kyiv" is about the successful operations of this pilot and his brothers-in-arms in the first days of the russian full-scale invasion.

📹: Centre Air Command pic.twitter.com/qys6UVMDNC

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 17, 2024

Lord, guard and guide the ones who fly
Through the great spaces in the sky.
Be with them always in the air,
In darkening storms or sunlight fair.

Romania steps up:

It will be 17% larger than Ramstein. Romania builds the largest base in NATO Europe, $2.5 billion project, an unsinkable carrier at the Black Sea. Two! sister base is built in the middle of a mountain plateau, that will be the control centre of S-E Europe.https://t.co/RfI1Vx7suY pic.twitter.com/eW6HmvSsM3

— Modern Warfare with Dacian Draco🇪🇺🇷🇴 (@DacianDracoMW3) March 17, 2024

Latvia has begun a criminal investigation against an EU parliamentarian for being a Russian asset:

HELSINKI (AP) — Latvia´s state security service has started criminal proceedings against an European Parliament lawmaker and a citizen of the Baltic country who is suspected of cooperating with Russian intelligence and security services, according to Latvian media reports Saturday.

Latvian media outlets reported that the security service, known by the abbreviation VDD, has been investigating the activities of Tatjana Ždanoka, 73, and her alleged Russia ties over the past several weeks since reports were published in January by Russian, Nordic and Baltic news sites saying that she has been an agent for the Russian Federal Security Service, or FSB, since at least 2004.

According to news agency LETA, the Latvian security service decided to start a criminal process against Ždanoka on Feb. 22. The security service couldn’t immediately be reached for comment. Ždanoka has denied all the allegations against her.

The European Parliament said late January that it had opened an investigation into news reports that a Latvian member of the assembly — Ždanoka — has been working as a Russian agent for several years. The European Union’s legislative body, based in Strasbourg, France, said it was taking the allegations very seriously.

Following a joint investigation, the independent Russian investigative journalism site The Insider, its Latvian equivalent Re:Baltica, news portal Delfi Estonia, and Swedish newspaper Expressen published on Jan. 29 a number of emails that they said were leaked and showed Ždanoka’s interactions with her handler.

Expressen claimed that Ždanoka has been spreading propaganda about alleged violations of the rights of Russians living in Baltic countries and arguing for a pro-Kremlin policy, among other things. She has also refused to condemn Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the paper said.

More at the link.

Here is Brian Weeden’s take on what the new contract with StarLink means. Weeden is a specialist on space policy.

1 This is some of the first details we’ve seen publicly on Starshield, a few comments https://t.co/VNrW8XCTyo

— brianweeden (@brianweeden) March 16, 2024

3 That makes total sense, given the push for proliferated constellations to enhance resilience & SpaceX demonstrated capability to build and launch such constellations

— brianweeden (@brianweeden) March 16, 2024

5 Either way, it will feed reinforce the Russian/Chinese concerns about US commercial space being a threat and target in a future conflict

— brianweeden (@brianweeden) March 16, 2024

Would you look at that.

I made a map of Russian refineries. Those marked red has had a "drone incident" or fire this year. pic.twitter.com/TrcEQdW8uE

— Def Mon (@DefMon3) March 17, 2024

At least six large Russian oil refineries damaged or disabled due to Ukrainian drone attacks over the past the last week.

This already affects Russian gas prices and Russian oil exports that directly finance Russia’s war in Ukriane.

It's a new front of resistance no one ever…

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) March 17, 2024

“Replacing American support for Ukraine would cost the other Nato states about €65 per citizen per year. We could choose to let Ukraine win.”

The west can still save Ukraine via @FT
https://t.co/BpN9BsSL7W

— Matti Maasikas (@MattiMaasikas) March 17, 2024

From The Financial Times:

I left my meeting with a senior French officer feeling that the west is so weak it scarcely exists any more. “The West”, a longtime object of obsession for anti-westerners from Egypt’s President Nasser to Vladimir Putin, has shrivelled to a small rump of countries squabbling with each other. At times they seem willing to let Ukraine lose its war.

I share the emotional impulse to keep intoning that Ukraine will win. But Panglossian war propaganda is becoming counterproductive. We need to see a possible defeat coming so that we can turn the wheel and avoid it. We can if we want to.

I met the officer days after Emmanuel Macron suggested that Nato troops could be sent to Ukraine. As usual with France’s attempts to lead, most of its so-called allies responded by saying, in essence: “Shut up, France.”

The officer thought Macron had spoken in desperation, compelled by French pessimism about Ukraine. Westerners have grown used to the war as a background rumble that never seems to change. One day, this could stop being true. Russian troops have a firepower advantage of perhaps five-to-one over Ukrainians.

Western countries are weak firstly because they lack allies. Non-aligned states in Asia, Africa and the Gulf never cared much about Ukraine’s struggle. They have been further alienated by western double standards over Israel’s killing of 30,000 Palestinians. If western countries support human rights in Ukraine but not in Palestine, then they don’t support human rights.

Meanwhile, the US seems to be abandoning “The West” like a sinking ship leaving the rats. This goes beyond Donald Trump’s plan, as relayed by his chum Viktor Orbán, to “not give a single penny” to Ukraine if he becomes president again. Even if Trump loses and Republicans win just one chamber of Congress, they can keep blocking aid to Ukraine.

The French long dreamt of Europe running its own military affairs without the US butting in. Now the dream is coming true, and it’s terrifying. Europeans cannot even agree whether this is an existential war for them (as eastern Europeans believe), a war of choice (as western countries seem to think) or a war to ignore (Olaf Scholz of Germany’s view).

Western powers have often labelled wars existential — in Algeria, Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq — only to abandon them after realising they were, in fact, wars of choice. European pacifists hope Ukraine’s war will remain similarly self-contained. Perhaps Putin might stop once he’s swallowed the country. After all, western domino theories proved wrong about Vietnam, too. So uncommitted are western states to arming Ukraine that they are treating it as a public-spending programme of choice, one you can ditch when money gets tight, like the UK’s HS2 train line.

Putin has another military advantage over us: his willingness to sacrifice his people. Russia might have suffered more casualties taking the Ukrainian town of Avdiivka than all western European deaths in combat put together in the past 50 years. The French officer told me apologetically: “We’re an old continent, no longer used to making war.”

This is a backhanded tribute to the success of European societies. Much though western Europeans like to whine, their region may be the safest and most liveable in history. It’s the apotheosis of the humanistic project. But Putin suspects we treasure life too much to defend it.

If he wins, that wouldn’t mean a new Iron Curtain descending across Europe. It would be more like a portable cotton curtain, blown around by Russia’s will. “The West” could shrink to a thin line stretching from Britain to (if we’re lucky) Poland.

Happily, we can change course. Russia has a poorly trained army and a Canada-sized economy. “This should be feasible, easily,” says Steven Everts of the EU Institute for Security Studies. Victory would require western countries to send non-combat troops such as de-miners, trainers and vehicle engineers. Countries would need to follow Denmark in giving every shell in their cupboards to Ukraine. Germany would have to send Taurus missiles. Replacing American support for Ukraine would cost the other Nato states about €65 per citizen per year. We could choose to let Ukraine win.

More at the link.

Kupar is correct, we could choose to let Ukraine win, but that is not the US’s strategy or policy, nor is it the strategy and policy of many of the EU’s member states. The US’s strategy and policy is to do enough to keep Ukraine from losing without doing anything to upset Putin so that he won’t escalate. It is a policy and strategy of fear, created by fools who have, once again, failed to recognize the moment for what it is or meet it.

Let’s check in with the Russian legions fighting on behalf of Ukraine.

Budanov: the Free Russian Army is not planning to stop any time soon, as we can see, they have solid resources. pic.twitter.com/fpj18Uo4mJ

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) March 17, 2024

 

Disturbing footage shows a Russian tank demolishing civilian houses in Russian Kozinka village to stop advancing Free Russian forces. pic.twitter.com/i1BSmGHuLa

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) March 16, 2024

As they say in the Ranger Regiment: “That’s a technique!”

Moscow:

Moscow, Special Military Operation zone, 17 March: multiple drones intercepted/crashed at the Domodedovo International Airport, resulting in some damage a warehouse. pic.twitter.com/siW2eA5bpv

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) March 17, 2024

/2. In Moscow, from the side of Domodedovo airfield, there is an oil refinery. Possibly it was supposed to be the intended target. pic.twitter.com/lcwucD5PZe

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 17, 2024

/4. The location of one of the downed drones. https://t.co/K6etP9AFbW pic.twitter.com/GLlNwHOh02

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 17, 2024

More on the attack on the refinery in Krasnodar Krai, Russia:

Night of 17 March: major drone attack against Slavyansk-na-Kubani oil refinery in Krasnodar Oblast, Russia. Multiple drones hit the facility unobstructed. pic.twitter.com/mXu6E4uCU3

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) March 17, 2024

/2. The Slavyansk ECO refinery. With the capacity of 4 million tons of oil per year was attacked by drones. pic.twitter.com/7szy0CZBi1

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 17, 2024

/4. Additional video of the fire on the territory of Slavyansk ECO oil refinery pic.twitter.com/i5t5ZDd59l

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 17, 2024

Russian occupied/aligned Transnistria:

Moment of the strike on Mi-8T in Tiraspol. https://t.co/gA0dnSVJZt pic.twitter.com/Uhp4DcnBbh

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 17, 2024

/2. The destroyed helicopter is a Mi-8T (04 Yellow) pic.twitter.com/xuUraZaLZd

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 17, 2024

/4. Additional footages of the burning Mi-8 pic.twitter.com/yf07dPa0XN

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 17, 2024

/6. Official Moldova statement regarding the incident:

“…following the examination of the video images and the exchange of information, we communicate that the incident in question is an attempt to cause fear and panic in the region. The military equipment in the pictures has… pic.twitter.com/HsiFFTAIVb

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 17, 2024

/6. Official Moldova statement regarding the incident:

“…following the examination of the video images and the exchange of information, we communicate that the incident in question is an attempt to cause fear and panic in the region. The military equipment in the pictures has not worked for several years.

The authorities in Chisinau, in contact with the Ukrainian side, do not confirm any attack on the Transnistrian region.”
https://gov.md/ro/content/comentariul-biroului-politici-de-reintegrare

You’ll notice the first tweet is missing. I can view it on Twitter, but I can’t embed it here because once again Musk’s crew have screwed with the code to prevent some pro-Ukrainian tweets containing videos of damage to Russian military equipment from being shared. This is a regular occurrence.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

88%! Some says this nose cheers up precisely 88% of people on this social media. And that's just after asking one person. Maybe it'll reach a whole 150%. Who knows? pic.twitter.com/kHcRSBSLlv

— Patron (@PatronDsns) March 17, 2024

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 753: The Starlink Snowflake Is Allowed To Move Into Geospatial IntelligencePost + Comments (35)

Sunday Afternoon Open Thread

by WaterGirl|  March 17, 20244:26 pm| 133 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

I just covered some of my tender plants since it’s going to get down to 15 degrees overnight.  That’s with wind chill.  Temps will actually be 26 degrees.

Does anyone know whether wind shill should be taken into considerations when it comes to temps for plants, not people?

What’s everybody else up to today?

Open thread.

Sunday Afternoon Open ThreadPost + Comments (133)

Mad Dog Margaritas

by @heymistermix.com|  March 17, 20241:14 pm| 70 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Mad Dog Margarita

Since it is St. Patrick’s Day, I was listening to a mix of Irish music, and one of them was “Dublin Blues” by Guy Clark.  The song mentions Mad Dog Margaritas, and I googled it, boy did I learn a lot.

First, the recipe:  “[T]wo parts Monte Alban Mezcal, one part Triple Sec, one part fresh lime juice, shaken vigorously with ice and served on the rocks.” (Monte Alban is a low-end Mezcal with a worm in it.  I do like Mezcal, but I’d recommend Del Maguey Vida or, if you can find it and afford it, one of the Bozal varieties.)

Second, the restaurant:

The Chili Parlor first opened that door to the public in 1976. (As a side note, chili was named the official state dish of Texas just a year later.) Among the establishment’s early patrons was a loose-knit assemblage of fun-loving rabble-rousers known as the Mad Dogs, a group founded by legendary Texas Monthly writer Gary Cartwright and his equally legendary wordsmithing compadre Edwin “Bud” Shrake. Circling around the Mad Dog nucleus of Cartwright and Shrake was a constellation of other Lone Star luminaries (as well as out-of-state friends and associates) that included writers, politicians, artists, actors, rascals, and musicians. Larry L. King, Dan Jenkins, Willie Morris, Billy Lee Brammer, George Plimpton, David and Ann Richards (yes, the same Ann Richards who went on to become Texas’s second female governor), Susan and Jerry Jeff Walker, Willie Nelson, and one Guy Clark were all members in good standing.

Individually, the Mad Dogs were mostly creative, productive, and important members of society. As a unit they were less so. Though their proposed plans were big—multiple attempts to buy a town, the production of thirty-minute pornographic movies with socially redeeming value, an all-night general store, the launch of “the world’s first literate and non-hysterical underground newspaper”—these schemes went almost wholly unfulfilled.

Now you know.  Happy St. Patrick’s Day to those who celebrate.

Mad Dog MargaritasPost + Comments (70)

They Can’t Beat Us If Everyone Knows Their Game

by WaterGirl|  March 17, 202410:58 am| 176 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

I have been hearing about and reading about the dangers of autocracy, the road to autocracy, at least since Trump came on the scene in 2015.    But here it is, nicely laid out in just 45 seconds.  I hope you’ll watch it!

.@StuartPStevens on @MSNBC breaks down how the roadmap to autocracy begins with the Republican Party’s unwillingness to lose. They cannot accept defeat so they attack every institution in America created to hold them accountable and elect a strongman like Trump. pic.twitter.com/Wv3tT0gfoa

— The Lincoln Project (@ProjectLincoln) March 14, 2024

My amateur transcript:

The foundation of democracy is somebody has to be wiling to lose.  You have to have faith in the system.

The essence of these autocracies is they destroy faith in the system.

What Republicans have done is – you can’t just say Trump because it’s now Republicans – they have attacked institution after institution in America.

They attacked the Justice Department.  They attacked law enforcement.  They attack elections.

And the purpose of this is to kind of throw up your hands and say “we need a strongman“ to take care of everything because democracy isn’t working.

This is what the Russians have said since 1920s – the Soviet Union – that democracy doesn’t really exist in America.

And it’s a complete lie.  They’re embracing Victor Orban.  It’s a complete roadmap to autocracy.

They want us to feel helpless.  They want us to feel hopeless.  They want us to give up. It gets discouraging.  It wears us down.  We even see it here.  We even say it in the comments.

Except for the “we need a strongman” part.  Here on Balloon Juice, we are saying “hell no, we don’t want a strongman!” and we’re doing everything we can to stop it.

Most normies aren’t going to read a long post from Teri Kanefield or any of the other many people who have been talking and writing about this for years.  But they might take 1 minute to read a tweet and watch a 45-second clip.  Please think about sharing this with everyone you know who doesn’t understand their game plan, and that we are being played.

Not totally unrelated, we still have an Angel match from eponymous, who will match up to $50 per person.  To count toward the match, tell us about your match in the comments.  Or you can let me know by email.

Open thread!

Update: Angel match #4 from eponymous is now complete!  But our anonymous Angel from match #3 just volunteered to match another $1,000 of donations.

They Can’t Beat Us If Everyone Knows Their GamePost + Comments (176)

Saturday Night Horrors Open Thread: The Contender

by Anne Laurie|  March 17, 20241:59 am| 107 Comments

This post is in: Elections 2024, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Trumpery

Kudos to whoever is dressing Trump in shirts bearing his name and city, in case he wanders off without supervision – though since he's out on bail, a GPS ankle monitor may be more appropriate. pic.twitter.com/25qi1tPZaE

— Kop*wow ???????? (@KPLWW5) March 14, 2024

It would be the ultimate Trump move, to not repay the GOP for the nomination. https://t.co/Gs9K48FABN

— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) March 15, 2024

show full post on front page

.@SarahLongwell25: "One of the main tactics of autocrats is to exhaust people…You break through by not getting exhausted. This is the time for Joe Biden and his campaign to roll out 1,000 surrogates to go on offense against Donald Trump and say you do not want this guy." pic.twitter.com/EbrVvYYByv

— Republican Voters Against Trump (@AccountableGOP) March 14, 2024

Saturday Night Horrors Open Thread: The ContenderPost + Comments (107)

War for Ukraine Day 752: The Updated Butcher’s Bill from Odesa

by Adam L Silverman|  March 16, 20249:09 pm| 39 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Painting by NEIVANMADE. It has a black border. There are grey buildings with black windows along the left side. The center is a yellowy-grey, perhaps Ukrainian wheat fields. There is a black shadow figure striding through it. The figure's legs and feet are all that is visible of it. On the right side are red Zs, which symbolize Putin's/Russia's "Z" war/special military operation in Ukraine. The sky above the buildings is light grey. "GENOCIDE IS GOING BUT WHO EVEN CARES?" is painted in black in the upper left hand corner.

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

I am completely fried. Just a long week, not necessarily anything bad. So I’m just going to cover the basics tonight so I can go and rack out.

ETA at 10:00 PM EDT: I’m aware of the Starlink Snowflake news. I’ll try to get to it tomorrow night once I’ve gotten some rest.

The Lithuanian Foreign Minister is, as usual, correct:

https://twitter.com/GLandsbergis/status/1768374497193627994

More from Odesa:

https://twitter.com/SESU_UA/status/1768947749867737161

“Today, one more employee of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, another victim of yesterday’s Russian attack on Odesa, died in the hospital from serious injuries,” Ihor Klymenko reported.

Thus, the death toll from the attack on Odesa on March 15 increased to 21.

“More than 70 people were injured”

President Zelenskyy addressed the increased casualty count from the Odesa attack in his daily address. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

Ukraine will now always have a strike force in the sky – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

16 March 2024 – 20:37

Dear Ukrainians,

Today, unfortunately, the number of fatalities has increased after the strike on Odesa: twenty-one lives have been taken. My condolences to the families and loved ones. Necessary assistance is provided to all the wounded. Local authorities and the Ministry of Internal Affairs are providing support.

There will definitely be our military responses to Russia. These weeks have demonstrated to many that the Russian war machine has vulnerabilities that we can reach with our weapons. I am grateful to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Security Service of Ukraine, and Defense Intelligence for their new Ukrainian long-range capability. I am equally grateful to our defense-industrial complex and everyone who works for Ukrainian strength. What our own drones are capable of is a true Ukrainian long-range capability. Ukraine will now always have a strike force in the sky.

I want to separately commend our warriors this week who are fighting on the ground on the front lines – every soldier, every commander, especially in those areas where the fighting is most intense. Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Donetsk region, near Kupyansk, in the South. I thank all our brigades, all combat units, who are destroying the occupier, giving us greater stability on the front. Today, I discussed the operational situation in detail with General Syrskyi: our capabilities, and existing threats. It is felt that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are becoming stronger.

One more thing. We always have to celebrate every Ukrainian success – all our people who bring pride to Ukraine and Ukrainians. This week, our team returned from the Deaflympics in Türkiye. For the first time in our independence, our national Deaflympics team won the most gold medals in the team medal count. I had the opportunity to thank our athletes, coaches, and everyone who helped the team. I presented state awards. I am proud that our people are capable of overcoming all difficulties and, despite everything, capable of bringing results to Ukraine.

Thank you to everyone who fights for Ukraine, works, and dedicates their lives to ensuring that Ukraine wins. It will win. I am confident.

Glory to Ukraine!

The cost:

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1768998366002700663

On March 16, 2022, Russian occupiers attacked the Drama Theatre in Mariupol, where hundreds of civilians were hiding from shelling.

They dropped a bomb on the theater and were not stopped by the inscription “Children.”

The exact number of victims is still not known – according to various reports – from 300 to 600 people.

Every Russian murderer must be held accountable for what he has done!

Eternal memory to those who died.

A Taurus update. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:

https://twitter.com/FRHoffmann1/status/1768603813672575333

The notion that the Taurus targeting process necessitates large amounts processing power and data is not a new or secret revelation. Broadly speaking, there is a “simple” and an “extended” Taurus mission planning protocol. The two are also referenced in the leaked call. 2/10 
“Simple” mission planning typically involves waypoint navigation using GPS. While this simplifies the planning process, it also renders Taurus more vulnerable to countermeasures and reduces accuracy. 3/10 
“Extended” mission planning is more complex. Here you integrate topographical data for TERCOM, pictures for image-based navigation, data on enemy air defense positions, and more detailed models of your target. 4/10 
The probability of Taurus reaching and eliminating its target rises with the complexity of the mission planning process, as discussed in the leaked call. The greater the intricacy of the targeting process, the higher the level of training required by the Ukrainians. 5/10. 
Keep in mind that this kind of extended mission planning was feasible back in the early 2000s, so it doesn’t require supercomputer-level technology. It’s also entirely achievable to store the necessary data separately from the physical data processing machines. 6/10 
In the leaked call, officers discussed how Storm Shadow mission planning is conducted through “reach back.” This likely refers to accessing some data stored in the UK. This indicates that the UK helps Ukraine perform an extended mission planning process in Ukraine. 7/10 
Does this change anything? Absolutely not. Ukraine is fully capable of developing its own data processing infrastructure and obtaining its targeting own data, which they probably already have. Let’s not forget that Ukraine also has its own cruise missile program. 8/10 
The fact remains, that if there was political willingness to allow Ukraine to use Taurus, the government would find a solution that minimizes and potentially prevents any direct Bundeswehr involvement in Ukraine. The key issue is the lack of political will. 9/10 
This has been a savvy political move by the SPD. They invited high-ranking officers to a “secret” meeting where reporting was not allowed, talking about the scarcity of German equipment. It’s no surprise that this tactic influenced some uninformed members of parliament. 10/10 
Many thanks to @John_A_Ridge for reminding me that the United States developed a mission planning system for Tomahawk in the 1990s that can fit inside a van lol.Image

France:

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1769097947407368328

The President of France Emmanuel Macron gave an interview to Ukrainian media.

Its main points:

On the role of France and his words on troops in Ukraine
🔹The role of France in the war in Ukraine is what Churchill has called “the nerve of war”.

🔹We must bear collective responsibility. We are ready for any challenge and if there comes another wave of escalation from Russia, we will be ready to react for the security of Ukraine and Europeans. But France will never initiate any kind of aggression.

🔹Ukraine must have clear visibility of the military aid calendar and walk confidently up to the moment when negotiations become possible.

On aid to Ukraine
🔹I will go to Berlin, speak to Chancellor Scholz and the Prime Minister of Poland. I am confident we will be able to allocate extra finances.

🔹We don’t have limits, we will react to how Russia reacts. I’m not going with advancing initiatives yet because this is not the spirit of collective solidarity.

On negotiations with Putin
🔹If Putin wants to offer something, I will answer his phone call. But the true negotiations about the end of the war must be held by Putin and Zelenskyy.

 

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1768373881088200943

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1768376509390033014

 

NATO HQ:

https://twitter.com/andrew_r_gray/status/1768283371820466571

From Reuters:

BRUSSELS, March 14 (Reuters) – Ukraine is running out of ammunition in its war against Russia’s invasion and NATO members are not doing enough to help Kyiv, the alliance’s secretary general Jens Stoltenberg said on Thursday.

In unusually blunt comments about the state of the war, Stoltenberg said NATO allies had the capacity to provide more to Ukraine but needed to show the political will to do so.

“Unprecedented aid from NATO allies has helped Ukraine survive as an independent nation. But Ukraine needs even more support and they need it now,” Stoltenberg told reporters at NATO headquarters in Brussels.

“The Ukrainians are not running out of courage, they are running out of ammunition.”

More than two years after Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine’s military has recently been grappling with significantly reduced weapons supplies from the West.

“NATO allies are not providing Ukraine with enough ammunition and that has consequences on the battlefield every day,” Stoltenberg said. “It is one of the reasons why the Russians have been able to make some advance on the battlefield over the last weeks and months.

“It is an urgent need for allies to make the decisions necessary to step and provide more ammunition to Ukraine. That’s my message to all capitals,” Stoltenberg said.

“We have the capacity, the economies, to be able to provide Ukraine what they need. This is a question of political will. To take the decisions and to prioritize support for Ukraine.”

He added that any attempt to organise Russian elections in occupied regions of Ukraine would be illegal.

The Avdiivka and Novomykhailivka fronts:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1768956328993522046

En route to Britain:

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1768298813855252731

 

Krasnodar Krai, Russia:

This one just happened!

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1769160190601924730

It’s such a recent attack there is no more thread yet. Just the first tweet.

Syrzan, Samara Oblast, Russia:

https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1768944542017790001

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1768905421597684122

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1768873365836599576

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1768874948980777053

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1769012304295694821

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1768888480057233648

Russian media as well as the governor of the Samara region say that this morning Novokuybyshevskiy oil refinery was also attacked by drones. As claimed, a fire also started there as a result of the attack and was extinguished in half an hour. But unfortunately no videos have yet appeared in the media to verify what was hit.
The Novokuybyshevskiy oil refinery is located 100km away from Syzran oil refinery. And 900km from the frontline. (53.0664572, 49.8708594)

If you were wondering how things are going with the Ukrainian aligned Russian legions that have raided across the Ukrainian border in to Russia, here you go:

Kozinka Village:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1769084362547442099

Graivoron border point:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1768931912582680759

Belgorod:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1768926024752832913

Moscow:

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1768298524205035641

Ukrainska Pravda has the details:

Russian President Vladimir Putin has claimed that Russia is supposedly ready for a peaceful solution to the war it has unleashed against Ukraine, but only on condition that the territories it has captured will be taken into account and Moscow is provided with guarantees.

Source: Putin in an interview with Kremlin-aligned Russian news agencies Russia 1, RIA Novosti, and RT; BBC News Russian

Quote from Putin: “Are we ready for negotiations? Yes, we are, but we are only willing to negotiate based on the realities that have emerged, as they say in such cases, on the ground, rather than on some kind of fantasies created by psychotropic drugs.”

Details: Putin added that “possible negotiations are not a pause for rearming Kyiv, but a serious conversation with security guarantees for Moscow.”

Putin claimed he already knew the “carrots [i.e. incentives] they are going to offer him” to prove that the right time had come for talks.

Quote from Putin: “They’re snorting cocaine now, right? Well, it doesn’t matter, it’s even easier with such people. It’s tougher with the smart ones, they are more dangerous as they influence the consciousness of society, including ours. They will toss out all sorts of their desires under the guise of carrots for us.”

Why this is important: Russia invaded Ukraine and occupied Ukraine’s Crimea and part of Donbas in 2014. The Russian Federation commenced a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, launching missiles and bombs on civilian settlements across the country overnight. Notably, in the early days of the full-scale war, Russian propagandists extensively disseminated claims that “Russia will take Kyiv in three days”, while Russian soldiers marching on Kyiv carried their ceremonial uniforms to parade down Kyiv’s central Khreshchatyk Street.

Nevertheless, Ukraine’s Armed Forces expelled Russian troops from Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts and continue to hold back the Russians on other fronts.

Realising that it would be impossible to achieve victory with force, Russia started to promote the idea of alleged peace talks through which it would seek to retain all the occupied territories. At the same time, the Russians are continuing to terrorise Ukraine, striking energy and civilian infrastructure and residential buildings. They often do so during the night.

Russian forces are suffering heavy losses regardless of their vast number of weapons and hardware. Russia has failed to achieve even the most minor strategic victory, such as reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts as of early March 2024, after over ten years of war and more than two years of full-scale invasion. Fighting for every street and house is ongoing in the cities and villages of Ukraine’s east. Russia has been trying to find weapons and mercenaries in other countries.

Ukraine views the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from its territory, the restoration of Ukraine’s 1991 borders, the release of all prisoners of war, war criminals being brought to justice and Russia paying reparations as the preconditions for negotiations. Ukraine’s Peace Formula outlines all of this.

Background:

  • Earlier, Pope Francis advised Ukraine to “have the courage of the white flag” and negotiate with Russia.
  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy responded that “Russian murderers and torturers are not moving further into Europe solely because they are being held back by Ukrainians with weapons in their hands under the blue and yellow flag”.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos, so here is some adjacent material from the Ukrainian MOD:

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1769053767389806937

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 752: The Updated Butcher’s Bill from OdesaPost + Comments (39)

Fun Saturday Read: Cats Aren’t Jerks…

by Anne Laurie|  March 16, 20246:30 pm| 110 Comments

This post is in: Cat Blogging, Excellent Links

Cats aren’t jerks. They’re just misunderstood. https://t.co/kpEn1zTYSo

— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) March 12, 2024

Right now, I’d only go as far as ‘Not all cats are jerks’, because the Spousal Unit’s cat Rocky is being… a pain in the neck, which is his default status. Per the Washington Post, “Cats aren’t jerks. They’re just misunderstood.” [gift link]:

If you’ve lived with cats, you’ve probably found yourself staring at them after they’ve toppled a plant or swept a mug off the table, thinking: “Why did you just do that?”

A precise answer isn’t easy to come by. Some recent studies have made strides in assuaging the more self-conscious human anxieties about cat ownership (allegedly, they know their names and they emotionally attach to us). But by and large, research that sinks its claws into domestic cat behavior, genetics and psychology remains somewhat nascent, especially compared to what’s available about dogs…

Cats indeed descended from solitary creatures, but this doesn’t mean they’re hermits. In wild or feral colonies — which form the basis of most feline social research — cats develop dynamic relationships with their peers, selecting a few “preferred associates” (Hollenbeck’s words) to hang out with…

Research into feral colonies shows that cats tend to form matriarchal social bonds; females will adhere more closely to one another (typically in a community of mothers, aunts and sisters). Males, once they’re about a year old, are more likely to move about nomadically. Even though existing research focuses primarily on feral cats, any person who has lived with more than one feline can attest that the domesticated ones form bonds with each other, too — if they so choose.

Monique Udell is the director of the Human-Animal Interaction Lab at Oregon State University, which has been investigating the social potential of domestic cats. According to Udell, cats actually have a “flexible” social structure, meaning they can exist successfully on their own or in groups, depending on early life experiences (such as whether they were exposed to humans as babies) and their environment.

“What we’re finding is that when we give them the same kinds of opportunities or challenges that we regularly give dogs, that oftentimes cats not only can engage in high levels of social behavior, but many cats actually prefer social interaction,” Udell says.

show full post on front page

Of course, no one — cat or human — wants to be around others all the time. Leslie Sinn, a veterinary behaviorist in Ashburn, Va., says domestic cats, just like their wild ancestors, navigate conflict by dispersal; they remove themselves from an uncomfortable situation as protection. “That’s often where we run into issues in our home, because there’s limited movement that can take place in order to be able to avoid conflict,” she says…

Still, some cats will never be best friends. Differences in age, energy level and lived experience can all fuel clashes. And some cats’ personalities simply don’t gel, Serpell says. Researchers in Denmark are preparing a study now, he says, to figure out why some cats get along easier than others, and to learn more about the roots of their individual personalities. While you can reduce the drama by creating a world where they’re not forced to share every necessity, some furry housemates just aren’t terribly compatible.

“You will get what looks like … almost cruel, kind of bullying that goes on,” Serpell says. “There are cats who will just seemingly get pleasure out of persistently annoying another cat.”…

“A lot of the so-called mischievous behavior of cats is simply an attempt to get the owners’ attention,” Serpell says. “They’ve learned by trial and error if they sit on your desk and throw your pens on the floor, eventually you’ll give them attention or get up.” Taking an extra 30 minutes every day to interact with your cat could lead to a happier dynamic.

Hollenbeck emphasizes that “misbehaviors” in cats rescued from unknown circumstances could also stem from past trauma. An animal who was hungry all the time in an earlier life may be defensive or agitated around meals, just like a cat who was mistreated by previous owners might be anxious around people. “As a survival instinct,” Hollenbeck says, “they are really good at generalizing that fear.”…

At the Human-Animal Interaction Lab, Udell and her colleagues lead classes for both children and adults to strengthen their bonds with cats by participating in activities together, including learning tricks or chasing a toy. While it depends on the individual animal, many cats coming through the lab have demonstrated an interest and ability to walk on a leash, play fetch and perform tricks when they’re given the attention and time, she says.

“People who have participated in these programs, they’ll send us back pictures of taking their cats on hikes and taking them on kayaks, and all sorts of adventures,” Udell says.

Separate from Udell’s findings, another study from researchers at the University of Sussex last year also found that cats can play fetch — although it was unclear if the behavior was more rooted in a bond with the object than the owner. Classic.

Cats prefer the jerk branding and this coming out is going to make them very upset.

— Bob Sampson (@bobsalpha1) March 12, 2024

Fun Saturday Read: <em>Cats Aren’t Jerks… </em>Post + Comments (110)

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