Open Threads

Germany:

Our fight continues.
Our friends continue to support us.
A new package of German military aid includes:
◾️4 Wisent 1 mine clearing tanks
◾️3 mine clearing systems
◾️14,000 rounds 155mm ammunition
◾️10 Vector reconnaissance drones
◾️22 anti-drone sensors and jammers
◾️12 SatCom… pic.twitter.com/EJ5Lb5bH0x

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) February 27, 2024

Our fight continues.
Our friends continue to support us.
A new package of German military aid includes:
◾️4 Wisent 1 mine clearing tanks
◾️3 mine clearing systems
◾️14,000 rounds 155mm ammunition
◾️10 Vector reconnaissance drones
◾️22 anti-drone sensors and jammers
◾️12 SatCom terminals
◾️4 border protection vehicles
◾️Material for explosive ordnance disposal
◾️250 tool kits with blasting material

Thank you for your unwavering support!
Vielen Dank!
🇺🇦🤝🇩🇪
#StandWithUkraine
@BMVg_Bundeswehr

Also, Germany:

Wild day of high rhetoric – Macron muses about NATO troops in Ukraine, Russia warns of a wider war – ends with Germany’s deputy chancellor pouring cold water on it all and suggesting France instead “supply more weapons” to Ukraine… https://t.co/Ofn67rQ8oh

— Mark MacKinnon (@markmackinnon) February 27, 2024

The Financial Times has the story:

Germany’s deputy chancellor said there was “no chance” of sending ground troops to Ukraine and, in a rebuff to France, told Paris it should instead supply Kyiv with more weapons.

Robert Habeck rejected French President Emmanuel Macron’s suggestion that a western troop deployment to Ukraine should not be ruled out, as Nato leaders also rounded on the idea.

“I’m pleased that France is thinking about how to increase its support for Ukraine, but if I could give it a word of advice — supply more weapons,” Habeck said on Tuesday.

The Franco-German spat came as western powers hunt for ways to increase support for Kyiv, which is running short of ammunition, while avoiding a wider escalation in the war with Russia.

Moscow warned on Tuesday that deploying troops would make a full-scale war against Nato inevitable.

Asked whether German troops could be sent to Ukraine, Habeck said “there is no chance of that” and called on France to “do what you can now and give Ukraine the munitions and the tanks that can be supplied now”.

Macron made his suggestion at a meeting of European leaders in Paris on Monday where he said the option of sending western troops to Ukraine had been discussed.

While acknowledging that the summit had not reached consensus “for sending in ground troops, in an official and declared way”, the French president added: “Nothing should be excluded. We will do whatever it takes to ensure that Russia cannot win this war.”

But German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said western powers had agreed “that there would be no ground troops on Ukrainian soil, no soldiers sent there from European states or Nato states”, comments that were echoed by his counterparts in Poland, Italy and the Czech Republic.

Germany is by far Europe’s biggest provider of military support to Ukraine and has long been critical of France’s more modest contribution, despite the two countries’ similar-sized defence budgets.

France said it did not keep large stockpiles of old weapons that it could offload to Ukraine and has instead supplied more sophisticated arms, notably its Scalp cruise missile.

A Nato official said there were no plans for the alliance to put combat troops on the ground: “Ukraine has the right to self-defence, and we have the right to support them.”

But a senior European defence official said Macron’s statement was about creating deterrence and ambiguity towards Russia, adding: “Everyone knows there are western special forces in Ukraine — they’ve just not acknowledged it officially.”

French officials maintained that Macron was not suggesting western troops should be sent en masse to the front lines, but that it was no longer a taboo to rule out involvement.

They also said western troops could potentially be involved through limited missions such as demining, maintaining and repairing weapons systems, or helping to secure the borders of other countries threatened by Russia, such as Moldova.

A voice of support for Macron came from Lithuania, where an adviser to the country’s president said the government was “openly” discussing whether to send troops to help train soldiers in Ukraine.

Lithuanian foreign minister Gabrielius Landsbergis added: “Times like these require political leadership, ambition and courage to think out of the box. The initiative behind the Paris meeting yesterday is well worth considering.”

But Dmitry Peskov, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, told reporters that if Nato sent troops to fight in Ukraine, war with the alliance “wouldn’t be likely, but inevitable”.

Worries about the risks of escalation with Russia are at the heart of a domestic dispute in Germany over whether to send long-range precision Taurus missiles to Ukraine.

Ukraine has said it urgently needs long-range weapons to try to degrade Russia’s military logistics and buy urgently needed time.

But Scholz said on Monday that his country might find itself “a participant in the war” if it sent the Taurus missiles. He added: “German soldiers must at no point and in no place be linked to targets this system reaches” — either in Ukraine or Germany itself.

In a thinly veiled barb at Berlin on Monday night, Macron said some allies kept saying “never” to tanks, fighter jets and long-range missiles for Ukraine and had merely offered to send “sleeping bags and helmets” at the onset of the full-blown war two years ago.

“Today, [we all realise that] we have to do more, faster and harder, to send missiles and tanks,” the French president said.

The simple fact is that French President Macron, like Lithuanian Foreign Minister Landsbergis, is correct:

Our report from earlier this month on the bleak intelligence picture:

Why Nato members are sounding the alarm on Russia’s aggressive posture https://t.co/XaW4spLVQe via @ft @GuyChazan @JP_Rathbone @rmilneNordic

— Henry Foy (@HenryJFoy) February 27, 2024

As is Danish PM Frederiksen:

Danish PM Mette Frederiksen told the Financial Times that “naive” Europe had to avoid the mistakes of the 1930s and “step up and scale up” its defence industry to contain an imperialist Russia, which has made Ukraine just its first target.

https://t.co/AliGDpvlyM

— max seddon (@maxseddon) February 27, 2024

I’ve read every NATO member states’ unclassified 2024 strategic assessment that has been published so far. I’ve posted two or three here. Every single one of them precedes from the same strategic premise: that Russia is going to attack within the next several years regardless of what happens with Ukraine. And, therefore, it is better to do what is necessary right now to ensure Ukraine wins a resounding victory and Russia is completely and utterly defeated. The problem of course is that the EU and NATO member states don’t have the Schlitz or can’t get their acts together to produce the Schlitz. And, of course, thanks to GOP dysfunction in the House, the US has decided we’re just not going to make Schlitz for export. Or for the border. But they’re going to complain about the fact that we’re not going to produce it while also preventing us from doing so. Lincoln had them, in his remarks about their ideological forebears, dead to rights in his Cooper Union address:

Your purpose, then, plainly stated, is that you will destroy the Government, unless you be allowed to construe and enforce the Constitution as you please, on all points in dispute between you and us. You will rule or ruin in all events.

"Nothing should be excluded from pursuing our objective. Russia cannot, must not win this war."

"There can be no security in Europe without Russia's defeat."

— Ben Hall (@hallbenjamin) February 26, 2024

One important point: if you announce that your announcing a strategic ambiguity, you’ve just done the opposite of establishing a strategic ambiguity.

Israel:

Extraordinary!

Israel’s ambassador to the UN, Gilad Erdan, delivered a speech in which he totally torched Russia. He not only announced that Israel is going to provide an early warning systems against missiles for Ukraine but also called Ukraine an “ally”. He also equates Russia… https://t.co/sA3a6DnKrr pic.twitter.com/HbrvawXxr8

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) February 27, 2024

Extraordinary!

Israel’s ambassador to the UN, Gilad Erdan, delivered a speech in which he totally torched Russia. He not only announced that Israel is going to provide an early warning systems against missiles for Ukraine but also called Ukraine an “ally”. He also equates Russia with Hamas and attacks Russia for hosting another visit of Hamas in Moscow.

You can be sure that this speech comes in coordination with the Israeli Prime Minister. It clearly marks the end of the relationship between Putin and Netanyahu. This whole instance reminds when Amir Weitmann delivered his viral statement in RussiaToday where he announced that “Russia is going to pay the price” (check out the repost). I think we are witnessing what this means.

Israel’s pro-Ukraine position will also have ramifications in the US and the ongoing discussion for military aid.

Source of video: https://youtube.com/watch?v=F5oIatX-3QI

Here’s the YouTube:

I’m surprised by this.

Tatarigami provides a grim assessment of the post-Avdiivka tactical reality:

When assessing the state of prepared fortifications post-Avdiivka and other key areas that might become frontlines this year, "disappointing" is probably the best description. The defenses are not as nearly good as the ones the Russians have built.

Solid strategic…

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) February 27, 2024

When assessing the state of prepared fortifications post-Avdiivka and other key areas that might become frontlines this year, “disappointing” is probably the best description. The defenses are not as nearly good as the ones the Russians have built.

Solid strategic fortifications require joint efforts of the General Staff, Ministry of Defense, and civilian government — it cannot be accomplished solely with the resources of exhausted brigades or individual battalions!

The alternative is to fight against total superiority in arty without defendable positions.

If anything, well done concrete fortifications can hold artillery fire for an extended period of time. That is the whole point of having them.

A simple trench isn’t enough

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) February 27, 2024

In fairness to the new Commander in Chief, he's not entirely to blame.

Strategic defense plans should have come from the General Staff long time ago, with the Ministry of Defense ensuring procurement. Civilians involvement is needed, hence political leadership will is required

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) February 27, 2024

Zaluzhnyi may or may not have submitted such a plan, but he needs resources for it, provided by the Ministry of Defense. Such a big scale requires the involvement of the Presidential office. Without documented evidence, pinpointing the specific institution that failed is hard.

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) February 27, 2024

Because we are talking about strategic decision that would require abnormal number of recourses, including involvement of civilian institutions and organizations. This is beyond ministry of defense or general staff.

President is also Supreme Commander-in-Chief.

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) February 27, 2024

Especially in light of this new reporting regarding Russia sourcing weapons from North Korea:

Somehow neither Iran nor NK are afraid that this will provoke a war with NATO https://t.co/fCrpTyvet5

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) February 27, 2024

🇺🇦🇷🇺🇰🇵 North Korea may have supplied Russia with up to 3 million 152mm artillery shells

South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik announced at a media briefing that North Korea had shipped Russia approx 6,700 containers, which could hold up to 3 million 152mm shells.

Some North Korean factories which are producing for Russia are operating at full capacity, suggesting that supplies will continue to flow.

https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20240227002800315

From Yonhap English:

SEOUL, Feb. 27 (Yonhap) — North Korean munitions factories are operating at full capacity to supply weapons to Russia in exchange for much-needed food and other necessities, South Korea’s defense chief has said.

Defense Minister Shin Won-sik made the assessment as concerns have heightened about North Korea’s alleged arms supply to Russia for its war in Ukraine while the war-torn nation is facing shortages of munitions due to delayed Western military aid.

“While North Korea’s arms factories operate at 30 percent capacity due to shortages of raw materials and power, certain factories are operating at full capacity, which primarily produce weapons and shells for Russia,” Shin said in a meeting with reporters Monday.

North Korea is estimated to have shipped around 6,700 containers to Russia since the summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Russian leader Vladimir Putin in September, he said. The amount is enough to accommodate approximately 3 million rounds of 152 mm artillery shells or 500,000 of 122 mm artillery shells.

In return for supplying weapons to Russia, Shin said North Korea appears to be receiving food and other necessities, as well as raw materials and parts used in weapons manufacturing.

The volume of containers from Russia to North Korea is presumed to be approximately 30 percent larger than those shipped from North Korea to Russia over the period, he noted.

“It seems that food accounts for the largest proportion (of shipments from Russia), which is believed to have stabilized food prices in North Korea, with other necessities also included,” Shin said.

The minister said Moscow is also likely to have provided satellite-related technology to Pyongyang as the country put its first spy satellite into orbit in November and vowed to launch three more this year.

Although the spy satellite has been orbiting the Earth, Shin expressed skepticism about the North’s claim that the satellite is capable of photographing major South Korean and U.S. military sites.

“It shows no signs of functioning and is merely orbiting without activity,” he said.

If Russia’s dependence on North Korean munitions and weapons grows, Shin anticipated the extent of Russia’s military technology assistance is likely to broaden in the future.

“It remains uncertain to what degree Russia will offer technology related to aircraft and ground equipment sought by North Korea. However, if Russia continues to receive more munitions from North Korea, the scope of technology transfer could increase,” he said.

Novomykhailivka:

Soldiers from the 79th Air Assault Brigade continue to destroy enemy armored equipment near Novomykhailivka. pic.twitter.com/dEUEDkXJTB

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) February 27, 2024

Russian occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

As we see, the Russians admit that Ukrainians does not want to go to Russia and not happy about the occupation. So, they deport Ukrainians

These are the methods of the Nazis. I can't believe this is possible again in Europe. Putin needs to be stopped.

— Денис Казанський (@den_kazansky) February 27, 2024

This would appear to be a public admission of a war crime — the forced deportation of Ukrainian civilians — and the blatant Russification of occupied southern Ukraine by Moscow and its puppet leaders. https://t.co/hbFH7bJrnc

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) February 27, 2024

Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

The destruction of the Russian reconnaissance UAV "Zala" with the British ASRAAM air defense system in the Kherson region. pic.twitter.com/Mk0ktm8pNq

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) February 27, 2024

 

For you anti-drone enthusiasts:

It looks like that Ukrainian troops using the Turkish CANiK M2 QCB caliber .50 heavy machine guns successfully downed a Shahed-136/131 drone. That are the same pickups as in my repost.

Source: Telegram / Operativno ZSU https://t.co/HOFKiYWERr pic.twitter.com/50M3NZlVXd

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) February 28, 2024

This was fun to watch, but this is not a sustainable way to do anti-drone air defense. It uses up too much .50 caliber ammo that isn’t being resupplied right now.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos tonight. So here is some adjacent material from the Ukrainian MOD.

Have you ever seen a Special Forces cat?
The cat is extremely classified, so we have to obscure its face.

📷: @SOF_UKR pic.twitter.com/okEj2uWBEh

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) February 27, 2024

Open thread!