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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

These days, even the boring Republicans are nuts.

Stop using mental illness to avoid talking about armed white supremacy.

We are aware of all internet traditions.

You cannot love your country only when you win.

Accused of treason; bitches about the ratings. I am in awe.

Republicans: The threats are dire, but my tickets are non-refundable!

Everybody saw this coming.

I would try pessimism, but it probably wouldn’t work.

America is going up in flames. The NYTimes fawns over MAGA celebrities. No longer a real newspaper.

… pundit janitors mopping up after the gop

Since when do we limit our critiques to things we could do better ourselves?

DeSantis transforming Florida into 1930s Germany with gators and theme parks.

Pessimism assures that nothing of any importance will change.

Find someone who loves you the way trump and maga love traitors.

At some point, the ability to learn is a factor of character, not IQ.

Give the craziest people you know everything they want and hope they don’t ask for more? Great plan.

That’s my take and I am available for criticism at this time.

Nothing worth doing is easy.

They were going to turn on one another at some point. It was inevitable.

It’s the corruption, stupid.

Peak wingnut was a lie.

Seems like a complicated subject, have you tried yelling at it?

Come on, man.

“In this country American means white. everybody else has to hyphenate.”

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Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

Open Threads

You are here: Home / Archives for Open Threads

Late Night Open Thread: Speaker Mike Johnson, Pulpit Bully & Moneychanger Sympathiser

by Anne Laurie|  November 2, 202312:15 am| 49 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., Open Threads, Republican Politics, Republican Venality

Late Night Open Thread: Speaker Mike Johnson, Pulpit Bully & Moneychanger Sympathist

(Jack Ohman via GoComics.com)

 
But when it comes to the truly sacred chambers of Commerce, well…

Like a wind-up doll. This guy is just gonna give us the same cliches we've been hearing for 40 years. https://t.co/MaWlaaJvVu

— Clean Observer (@Hammbear2024) November 1, 2023

Mike Johnson is sending a clear message with his first proposed legislation, and that message is “our top priority is helping rich tax cheats” https://t.co/17zxt12JU6

— Scott Lemieux (@LemieuxLGM) October 31, 2023


Per the Washington Post:

House Republicans on Monday unveiled a proposal to pay for emergency aid for Israel’s war against Hamas by cutting IRS funds aimed at cracking down on rich tax cheats and improving taxpayer service.

The legislation, released by the House Rules Committee, calls for approving roughly $14 billion primarily in military aid to Israel and cutting about the same amount from the IRS budget. President Biden has proposed giving Israel roughly the same amount in aid but did not call for offsetting cuts to other parts of the budget. The new House speaker, Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.), has said the new expenditure must be covered by other spending reductions to avoid adding to the debt. Biden also called for the Israel aid to be packaged with roughly $60 billion for Ukraine, an approach the GOP bill rejected.

The legislation reflects the GOP’s ongoing determination to undo the IRS expansion that Biden secured in 2022 in the Inflation Reduction Act, which boosted the agency’s funding by $80 billion to improve taxpayer services and pay for more enforcement actions against wealthy tax cheats. Biden and House Republicans agreed to repeal roughly $20 billion of that $80 billion as part of a deal in May to suspend the U.S. debt ceiling. Now, Republicans are pushing for more reductions.

The GOP bill would pare back funds for most parts of the IRS expansion, including increased enforcement and a new online portal to allow taxpayers to file their taxes for free directly with the government. The legislation excludes cuts to improved taxpayer services that have helped the IRS reduce wait times for calls.

Using the IRS funding to offset the Israel aid might not actually save money: The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office had estimated in 2022 that the $80 billion IRS expansion would cut the deficit by more than $100 billion by improving collections and enforcement.

“This is the reverse of the right way to think about this,” said Mark Mazur, the Biden administration’s former assistant treasury secretary for tax policy. “This is like if you take a dollar from the IRS and throw a $5 bill out the window.”…

… Where it magically flies into the soft, sweaty hands of someone who can afford to buy legislators, and not just tax accountants.

This adds up to a legislator who is hiding his assets.
That never ends well. https://t.co/PbcVyfIfYA

— Mike Galletly ???? (@galletly_mike) November 1, 2023

show full post on front page

Mike Johnson doesn't have any retirement savings, own a single stock, or have any assets at all. He has less than $5,000 in his bank account.

He's got a 250-500K mortgage, a home equity loan, and a personal loan.

So what's his retirement plan? To lobby? https://t.co/xPzUPqqc4w

— Matt Fuller (@MEPFuller) November 1, 2023


Guess I’m just surprised the Treasury Department will still cut paper payroll checks for MAGA Mike to carry down to the local check-cashing outlet. The Daily Beast:

Newly elected Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA) does not have a bank account.

At least, that’s what Johnson reports on years of personal financial disclosures, which date back to 2016 and reveal a financial life that, in the context of his role as a congressman and now speaker, appears extraordinarily precarious.

Over the course of seven years, Johnson has never reported a checking or savings account in his name, nor in the name of his wife or any of his children, disclosures show. In fact, he doesn’t appear to have money stashed in any investments, with his latest filing—covering 2022—showing no assets whatsoever…

House Ethics Committee filing guidelines state that members must disclose bank accounts they have at every financial institution, as long as the account holds at least $1,000 and the combined value of all accounts—including those belonging to their spouse and dependent children—exceeds $5,000…

Brett Kappel, a government ethics expert at Harmon Curran, told The Daily Beast it would be “very unusual for a Member not to have to disclose at least one bank account.”

Jordan Libowitz, communications director for watchdog group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, offered a more blunt assessment, saying that if Johnson truly doesn’t have any assets, it “raises questions about his personal financial wellbeing.”

“It’s strange to see Speaker Johnson disclose no assets,” Libowitz told The Daily Beast. “He made over $200,000 last year, and his wife took home salary from two employers as well, so why isn’t there a bank account or any form of savings listed?”…

I don't want members of congress to take 178,000 a year job and turn themselves into millionaires with it, but the idea that this guy has no assets at this point in his life is just straight up bullshit.

— Mike Galletly 🇺🇸 (@galletly_mike) November 1, 2023


He’s got deep-pocket sugar daddies, though…

Speaker Mike Johnson's wealthy Louisiana donors could become key funders for House GOP https://t.co/nUpGfndJtD

— CNBC (@CNBC) October 31, 2023


Per CNBC, “Speaker Mike Johnson’s wealthy Louisiana donors could become key funders for House GOP”:

Newly minted Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson has quietly assembled a group of wealthy Louisiana political backers who could become key players in GOP fundraising under Johnson’s speakership…

Johnson’s election last week has reportedly already provided a boost to the National Republican Congressional Committee, the official campaign arm for House Republicans. On Oct. 27, Johnson’s first full day as speaker, the NRCC raised $175,000, according to Politico. It was the group’s best online fundraising day in more than a year and a half…

Wholesale corruption — so much more frugal than the retail version!

I’m pretty sure there are at least a few other generous donors who’ve been too modest to step forward yet, but that’s why oppo research teams exist…

This is a lie. https://t.co/gPFBSsJ6T8

— Clean Observer (@Hammbear2024) November 1, 2023

MAGA Mike’s already looking a lot more petulant than he did last week…

Johnson says House GOP will consider Ukraine funding, border security together https://t.co/QYpuFVMqwZ pic.twitter.com/mUbBgAStGX

— The Hill (@thehill) November 2, 2023

Late Night Open Thread: Speaker Mike Johnson, Pulpit Bully & Moneychanger SympathiserPost + Comments (49)

99 Bottles of Beer on the Wall

by WaterGirl|  November 1, 20238:36 pm| 69 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

99 bottles of beer on the wall, 99 bottles of beer.  Take one down, and pass it around, 98 bottles of beer on the wall.

99 Bottles of Beer on the Wall

h/t Manyakitty

I don’t know if there’s any chance that Santos will be expelled, but I would love to see it.

Also, I can’t figure out why 5 or 10 of the 28 Republicans in Biden districts haven’t initiated a motion to vacate.  The circus of a couple of weeks ago made them look better than the current Pastor of the House.

Totally open thread, in case that’s not obvious!

Update: Gosh, as soon as I get the post up, the vote is already over.  Even 25 Dems voted against expelling Santos.

He’s facing 23 felony charges.
His campaign manager pled guilty to conspiring with him.
He pled guilty to stealing checks in Brazil.

They’re not even sure of his real name.

Yet, the House of Representatives couldn’t muster enough respect for their chamber to expel George…

— Jack E. Smith ⚖️ (@7Veritas4) November 2, 2023

99 Bottles of Beer on the WallPost + Comments (69)

War for Ukraine Day 616: General Zaluzhnyi’s Treatise on Modern Positional Warfare

by Adam L Silverman|  November 1, 20236:48 pm| 22 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Graphic by NEIVANMADE of a Russian bomb with a "Z" symbol on it crashing through the roof of the Ukrainian Postal Service delivery hub. "Everyone Is a Target" and "Stop Russia" are written in the space between the destroyed roof and the fins of the bomb.

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Russia once again opened up on Ukraine overnight. The Air Force of Ukraine has the details:

And:

Overnight, the Ukrainian Air Forces shot down 18 «Shahed-136/131» UAVs and 1 Kh-59 cruise missile.

📹: Mykola Oleshchuk pic.twitter.com/TZaWGzDWkn

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 1, 2023

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

I am confident that Ukraine will make our Europe stronger than ever – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

1 November 2023 – 18:55

I wish good health to all Ukrainians, both men and women!

First and foremost, gratitude to our sky defenders – the soldiers of mobile fire groups, Ukrainian pilots, and soldiers of anti-aircraft missile units, all units that destroy Russian aircraft, missiles, and drones… Last night, 18 Shahed drones and one guided air missile were shot down. Unfortunately, there are several hits. But most of the enemy targets have been destroyed. Including in Poltava region, Chernihiv region, Sumy region, Vinnytsia region, and Khmelnytsky region, in other regions of our country. I thank our soldiers for this. We all need to remember clearly: every such downing means saving lives and infrastructure. And I ask all Ukrainians to pay attention to air raid alerts and to understand that, even though we are strengthening our air defense as much as possible, the danger is still significant. Especially in cities like Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson. In the cities and villages of Kherson region, Donetsk region. In Chernihiv, Sumy regions. It’s important to be cautious and not take the danger lightly.

Today, I held several important meetings and, as always, a video conference: with the military, intelligence, government officials, and those responsible for the situation in the regions. I also had a meeting with our team that represented Ukraine at the advisors’ meeting on the Peace Formula. We discussed the main details and outcomes of this summit. We are not revealing at the moment some things, which are very beneficial for Ukraine and international law in general. The reason is clear: we don’t want to give Russia a chance to undermine our international efforts. But I can say that this, the third advisors’ meeting, was even stronger than the two held before it. It continued to consolidate the world. There is a joint statement of the co-chairs of the advisors’ meeting in Malta. And there are many signals from representatives of states, including the Global South and our partners in Europe and in the United States, confirming the correctness of our course to unite the world around the Peace Formula, so that the principles of a just peace and the full restoration of international law become a common plan for the world’s majority. Today, during the meeting, we identified the main steps we will take in the coming months to add new substance to the Peace Formula.

Another very important thing. Today’s date has a special geopolitical and values-based meaning. This day, November 1, is practically celebrated as the birth of the European Union. Thirty years ago, the Maastricht Treaty came into force, laying the foundations for modern European unity. There was a lot of resistance to Europe to be united, a lot of doubt about a united Europe. And even today, anti-European policies are quite vocal in various countries, including those where European optimism is critically important for maintaining peace and normalcy in Europe and the world. However, the European Union has proven time and again that it can overcome crises, defend itself, preserve its valuable leadership in the world, and become stronger when Europe’s enemies expect only weakness.

We value our Europe, the Europe of cooperation, not confrontation, the Europe of people, not ideologies, because only in this way can our continent protect and defend human lives both in European countries and in the world. I am confident that Ukraine will make our Europe stronger than ever, and we are working actively to remove any obstacles to our accession to the European Union. I am also confident that no matter how events unfold in the world, among our partners in the United States and elsewhere, unity will prevail. Unity, not division. Unity, not calls for isolation.

I thank everyone for their support for Ukraine, for our joint efforts to defend our European values. I also thank everyone in the world who helps to preserve unity, from Washington to every capital where people value human lives.

Glory to all who fight for freedom! Glory to our soldiers!

Glory to Ukraine!

The cost:

"You have to fight for your freedom. If you don't want to be yoked or become a slave, then you have to fight."
 
Dmytro "Da Vinci" Kotsyubailo, would have turned 28 today.
 
Dmytro was a Ukrainian volunteer who served as the 67th Mechanized Brigade's battalion commander. In 2021,… pic.twitter.com/gh9wS5CDM0

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 1, 2023

“You have to fight for your freedom. If you don’t want to be yoked or become a slave, then you have to fight.”

Dmytro “Da Vinci” Kotsyubailo, would have turned 28 today.

Dmytro was a Ukrainian volunteer who served as the 67th Mechanized Brigade’s battalion commander. In 2021, he became the first volunteer to be awarded the title of Hero of Ukraine. “Da Vinci” died in a battle near Bakhmut on March 7 this year.

Eternal memory and glory to our fallen heroes!

Сьогодні, 1-го листопада, день народження командира та провідника 1-го окремого батальйону «Вовки Да Вінчі»! pic.twitter.com/DIzCCAf7nI

— Вовки Да Вінчі (@VovkyDaVinchi) November 1, 2023

Today, November 1, is the birthday of the commander and leader of the 1st separate battalion “Da Vinci Wolves”!

The purpose behind the cost:

The long-awaited embrace. pic.twitter.com/ILCJFJ5R3d

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 1, 2023

General Zaluzhnyi gave an interview to The Economist that was published today. It is paywalled. However, they also published his treatise on modern positional warfare. In his essay he delineates five things that the Ukrainian military must do to achieve battlefield success. (emphasis mine)

Having launched the large-scale armed aggression against Ukraine on February 24,
2022, the russian federation provoked the beginning of an unprecedented global security
crisis, the largest since the end of the Second World War. russian great-power chauvinism
multiplied by sick imperial ambitions gradually turns the military conflict it began in the
centre of Europe into an armed confrontation between democratic and authoritarian political
regimes with the prospect of its spread to other regions of the planet with similar geopolitical
models (Israel and the Gaza Strip, South and North Koreas, Taiwan and China, etc.). The
insufficient effectiveness of the existing global political regulatory mechanisms, primarily the
UN and the OSCE, leaves Ukraine no choice but to restore its territorial integrity after the
large-scale armed aggression within the internationally recognized borders of 1991,
exclusively by military force, in which its Armed Forces (AF) play a decisive role.

Having entered the war with a stronger enemy, which has a lot of weapons and a much
greater mobilization capabilities, Ukraine was not only able to stop it, but also to conduct a
successful counteroffensive in 2022 and stave the enemy off along many axes. The people of
Ukraine have demonstrated their willingness not in words, but in deeds to lay down their soul
and body for their freedom. However, due to many subjective and objective reasons, the war
at the present stage is gradually moving to a positional form, a way out of which in the
historical retrospect has always been difficult for both the Armed Forces and the state as a whole. At the same time, the prolongation of a war, as a rule, in most cases, is beneficial to one of the parties to the conflict. In our particular case, it is the russian federation, as it gives it the opportunity to reconstitute and build up its military power. Therefore, the issues of understanding the causes of such a situation, finding possible ways out of it and changing the nature and course of this war in favour of Ukraine are of particular relevance in modern conditions.

An analysis of the current situation in which the Armed Forces of Ukraine and other
components of the state Defence Forces are placed shows that in order to find a way out of the positional form of warfare, it is necessary to: gain air superiority; breach mine barriers in depth; increase the effectiveness of counter-battery; create and train the necessary reserves; build up electronic warfare (EW) capabilities. Therefore, the determination of the reasons for the transition of hostilities to the positional form and the search for possible ways out of this situation should obviously be carried out according to these main components. It should be noted that the above-mentioned components in no way level the role and place of missiles and ammunition, artillery systems, missile systems, electronic warfare, other types of weapons and equipment provided by partners. They only complement them in the context of increasing the capabilities of the Defence Forces through new technological solutions and innovative approaches on a way out of the positional crisis on the line of contact. Let’s consider these reasons in more detail.

GEN Zaluzhnyi’s detailed explanation of his five key points at the link!

What is clear by now is that “Prevent RU from winning, prevent UA from losing” favoured by Biden Admin is not sustainable strategy any more.

— Mykola Bielieskov (@MBielieskov) November 1, 2023

We're all terribly at ease now.

We seem to have entirely forgotten the fact that — above everything else — Ukraine is fighting a war of defense against one of the world's largest military powers that enjoys an immense stock of resources, along with a colossal material legacy…

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) November 1, 2023

We’re all terribly at ease now.

We seem to have entirely forgotten the fact that — above everything else — Ukraine is fighting a war of defense against one of the world’s largest military powers that enjoys an immense stock of resources, along with a colossal material legacy of the Soviet military.

It’s a fucking man-made miracle that, over 600 days into the full-scale invasion, we are where we are, and 80% of Ukraine’s territory is free from occupation and has *relatively* peaceful life.

Neither Kyiv, nor Kharkiv, or Odesa, or Lviv, are under Russian occupation.

Just recall the days of February 2022 and Russia’s Kyiv-in-three-days bravado.

Back then, did any of the critics of today’s Ukraine expect the crushing defeat of Russia’s blitzkrieg at Kyiv?

Or the sinking of the Moskva cruiser? Or the fact that Russia still being not even close to having Donbas captured by the end of 2023? Or Ukraine’s Kharkiv breakthrough? Or the triumphant liberation of Kherson?

Or the Snake Island? Or the battle of Bakhmut that lasted a year? Or the Russian defeat at Mykolaiv? Or drone attacks on Moscow & the Kremlin? Or Russian strategic airfields and Black Sea Fleet HQs being wiped out?

Or Ukraine’s military mastering dozens of Western-provided weapon types, from artillery to advanced air defense, on the fly? Or Russia losing close to 2,500 tanks in combat? Or the fact that Ukraine survived a winter of Russian missile attacks on the heating and electric supply grid?

Or the fact that Russia was forced to declare mobilization for the first time since 1941 and 1914 and to mass-recruit suicidal convicts? Or the Kremlin begging Iran for drones and North Korea for ammo to go on?

Or the fact that Ukraine completely retook the initiative in the war and initiated a full-scale counter-offensive operation to possibly bring the war to an end? Or Ukraine talking not only about the national survival but the return to the legitimate national borders of 1991 as the war’s ultimate end goal?

How many of those things were realistically expected as half of the world was sighing, shaking its head, expressing concerns, and saying Ukraine would be done for soon?

Some of us need to come down to earth and recall it that Ukraine has stood against Russia all this time.

It’s a fucking man-made miracle that, 615 days on, we’re talking about THIS.

We’ve made a light-year-long way over the last 20 months.

Especially given the fact of how little the chances were and how disproportionate are the combating powers.
And how little and late Ukraine gets its resources to go on fighting.

However, this thing works the other way around, too.

Some people need to wake up and realize that Ukraine is combating a defensive war against Russia.

So if we want this all to end in a good way, Ukraine needs to get all the necessary instruments BEFORE it mounts a potentially decisive, extremely difficult counteroffensive — not AFTER the operation fades away due to insufficient resources provided to her again due to the fear of “escalation.”

Avdiivka:

Previously undocumented Russian losses during attacks on Avdiivka shown in thread by @OSINTua:
2xT-80BV, Damaged;
4xT-80BV, Destroyed;
1xT-72B3M, Destroyed;
1xT-72B3, Destroyed;
1xT-72B, Damaged;
1xT-64B, Destroyed;
2xUnknown Tank, Destroyed;
1xBTR-80, Abounded;
1xBMP, Destroyed… https://t.co/fLI5IqC34W pic.twitter.com/PoGWuJ0A0t

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 1, 2023

 

Previously undocumented Russian losses during attacks on Avdiivka shown in thread by @OSINTua:
2xT-80BV, Damaged;
4xT-80BV, Destroyed;
1xT-72B3M, Destroyed;
1xT-72B3, Destroyed;
1xT-72B, Damaged;
1xT-64B, Destroyed;
2xUnknown Tank, Destroyed;
1xBTR-80, Abounded;
1xBMP, Destroyed
3xBMP-1, Destroyed;
2xBMP-1, Damaged;
1xBMP-2, Destroyed;
3xBMP-2, Damaged;
6xMT-LB, Destroyed;
3xMT-LB, Damaged.
Total – 32, of which 12 tanks.
https://t.me/lost_warinua/54901

Another Russian TOS-1A has been destroyed. According to the source it happened near Avdiivka.

Those vehicles especially when loaded are just driving coffins which especially recently just keep on exploding.

Source: https://t.co/kJSlZs5QP6#Ukraine #Donetsk #Avdiivka pic.twitter.com/CSBK33oa3h

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) November 1, 2023

GeoConfirmed takes a deep dive into the Russian loses in/near Avdiivka. First tweet from the thread followed by the rest from the Thread Reader App:

GeoConfirmed Investigation – Russian Avdiivka Offensive

Based on Open Sources and double checked by Com Sat Img, since the offensive started on 9 or 10 October:

Russian losses:

197 vehicle losses.
18 potential vehicle losses.

Loss = Damaged or destroyed.

1/X pic.twitter.com/PwfO9CLBOZ

— GeoConfirmed (@GeoConfirmed) November 1, 2023

Losses older than 9 October (Purple).
At least 61 are filtered out.Every loss after 9 October is checked with Com Sat Img.

2/XImage

Methodology:

Losses: If a vehicle is more than 3 days on the exact same place. Most of the time burnmarks/destruction is visible. Less than 10 were moved before 31 October.

Potential loss: no second footage available to confirm its a loss.

3/X

99 Losses (Orange) are from the first wave of the offensive:
Between 9 and 13 October.94 losses (Orange) are from the second wave of the offensive:
Between 14 and 23 October.

4 confirmed (Orange) and 18 potential losses (Yellow) between 24 and 31 October.

4/X
Image
Image

Let’s start with South Avdiivka.

Vehicles from this video are confirmed destroyed.

5/X

EVERY pin is a different confirmed loss.

6/XImage

The area around Vodyane.

Some examples.

7/X

Other example:

8/X

Other example:

9/X

And another example:

10/X

Losses around Vodyane:

11/XImage

Lets go to North Avdiivka:

First the area around Novoselivka Druha:

12/XImage

Footage from some of those losses:

13/X

Other footage from some of those losses:

14/X

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1713839250154676573

Area around Krasnohorivka.

15/XImage

Some footage:

16/X

Other footage:

17/X

Area south of Krasnohorivka.

18/XImage

Remember this video?

All the orange pins East and South of the lake are the result.

19/X

And the destruction in this video is also mostly in this area:

20/X

West of Krasnohorivka.

21/XImage

This video is from this area.

22/X

Other related footage:

23/X

Other related footage:

24/X

And this column?

Needed to retreat. But at least 6 vehicles were destroyed during this retreat.

25/X

Some more losses from this area.

(At 0:39 you see, for example, the vehicles from the above footage that were not able to retreat.)

26/X

Other losses from this area:

27/X

12 October we stated this.

“this could become the most costly Russian assault since the beginning of the war.”

We can conclude now that this is by far the most costly Russian assault, during 3 weeks, for one city, since the beginning of the war.

28/X

197 vehicle losses.
18 potential vehicle losses.
61 previously known losses in this area.This is not even comparable with the Ukrainian losses during their offensive. Nor in amount, nor in time.

29/Image

30/X geoconfirmed.org/ukraine
Image

Ukraine – GeoconfirmedGeoconfirmed is a community-based geolocating platform with a global reach, focused on the ongoing conflict in Ukrainehttp://www.geoconfirmed.org/ukraine

Special thanks to @Tatarigami_UA for his great work regarding this investigation.

31/X

Unroll available on Thread Reader

If you like our work you can provide us a coffee.

This helps:
Improving our map and user interface
Improving data management
Buying Sat Img for confirmations and investigations

Thx!

32/X

GeoConfirmed is GeoConfirming Locations.I love supporting creators!https://www.buymeacoffee.com/geoconfirmed

Because some people really have a problem with reading comprehension, an additional clarification:

a. “From 09/10 october” means that those losses where not there before. Not visible on Sat Img, not seen before. NOT THERE BEFORE.
Purple are the older losses.

b. Tweet 3 states clearly: Less than 10 were moved before 31 October.

So from the 99 losses between 9 and 13 Oct and 94 losses from between 14 and 23 October only 10 were not there anymore on 30 or 31 October.

So at least 90 losses are still in place since at least 13 October…
and at least 84 losses are still in place since at least 23 October…
We checked EVERY POTENTIAL LOSS on the 30/31 Oct Com Sat img.

Loads are visible in the GeoConfirmed footage, others are in the @Tatarigami_UA thread, others were not known yet but visible in Com Sat Img.

Please, for some of you: read a thread before you react.

33/X
 

The Dnipro, Kherson Oblast:

Russian channel VchK-OGPU says that Russian General Teplinskiy might have been a target in a "strike against the command centre of the "Dnepr" army group". The news about Teplinsky replacing Makarevich as the head of the "Dnepr" group was leaked just days ago. This general, who… pic.twitter.com/2zEzkYv7ck

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) November 1, 2023

Russian channel VchK-OGPU says that Russian General Teplinskiy might have been a target in a “strike against the command centre of the “Dnepr” army group”. The news about Teplinsky replacing Makarevich as the head of the “Dnepr” group was leaked just days ago. This general, who comes from VDV, appears to be highly esteemed by Russian servicemen.

Personally, I always take info from this channel with a big grain of salt, but they were right on several occasions. I would not be surprised if Teplinsky appears on some TV program in Russia in the next few weeks, looking healthy.

But if this information is true, and Teplinsky is knocked out in some capacity, it would be a big win for Ukraine.

https://t.me/vchkogpu/43416

The Kerch Straits Bridge in Russian occupied Crimea:

The Russian occupation has probably covered the Kerch bridge in a smoke screen. It is unclear whether for precautionary purposes or due to an exercise.

Source: Telegram / Baza#Ukraine #Crimea #Kerch pic.twitter.com/SMRXX4a9U6

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) November 1, 2023

Bakhmut:

Cluster munition strike destroys Russian BMP. By the 26th brigade of Ukraine. Bakhmut front. https://t.co/28daPKrmLv pic.twitter.com/0gFalCehaE

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 1, 2023

Lankove, Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

Strike on Russian 1RL257 "Krasukha-4" electronic warfare complex. Near Lankove, Zaporizhzhia region.
~26km from the frontline – 47.182137, 35.947999https://t.co/tRrK06S5Imhttps://t.co/YHN29USj3g pic.twitter.com/TI5XwHoA3A

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 1, 2023

Kupyansk:

/2. Destroyed Russian equipment during attacks on Kupyansk front. https://t.co/MjcnXmUc57 pic.twitter.com/ZEpeFMr8mI

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 1, 2023

Photos below show 7 previously undocumented losses of Russian AFVs:
1xT-72B3M obr.2022, damaged;
1xT-72B3, destroyed;
1xT-72B, destroyed;
3xBMP-2, destroyed;
1xBMP-2, damaged.https://t.co/EWgLgv1I0J https://t.co/uQNZyGL9Ua

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 1, 2023

Somewhere in Donetsk:

The Ukrainian Operational Command “West” released a drone footage, showing the destruction of a Russian Zala drone crew including their vehicle.

A single GMLRS missile from a HIMARS launcher wiped them out.#Ukraine pic.twitter.com/WwC4c6WtOp

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) November 1, 2023

Destruction of three Russian BTR-82A, video by the Birds of Magyar unit. https://t.co/Pr5MtuRVAU pic.twitter.com/S20RdMWHI3

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 1, 2023

As I’ve noticed in for other accounts, here’s more evidence that the Starlink Snowflake has had whomever is left of his coders fucking with the pro-Ukrainian accounts:

Over the past few months, my team and I have dedicated considerable time and resources to big projects, such as investigating ammunition losses in Avdiivka and tracking North Korean ammunition shipments. We take pride in the fact that our work has been recognized and cited by… pic.twitter.com/DbARVrcaML

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) November 1, 2023

Over the past few months, my team and I have dedicated considerable time and resources to big projects, such as investigating ammunition losses in Avdiivka and tracking North Korean ammunition shipments. We take pride in the fact that our work has been recognized and cited by prominent media outlets, which we deeply appreciate.

However, we’ve noticed a substantial decrease in post visibility, possibly due to changes in the platform’s algorithm or shifts in user engagement. Our post views have declined by approximately 50-70% (varies by post), although engagement with our content, including retweets by accounts with 300k – 1 million followers, remains steady and even shows an upward trend.

As a result, we have decided to shift our focus towards our project’s website. We will continue to share research excerpts and quotes here, but our primary emphasis will be on the website. It’s challenging to invest days in fact-based analysis, including valuable insights, when it garners less attention than quickly downloaded, unverified videos from Telegram presented as open-source intelligence (OSINT).

Most of our website’s publications are available to all users without cost. We also provide exclusive premium content to our paid subscribers. These subscriptions play a vital role in supporting our operations, allowing us to cover expenses such as obtaining imagery, purchasing software and licenses, and expressing gratitude to the volunteers who contribute their time and expertise without compensation. This revenue stream helps sustain our work. While we appreciate the donations we receive here, we understand that continuously requesting them is uncomfortable, especially when there are numerous fundraisers for essential items like tourniquets and FPV drones. We recognize that, after nearly two years of conflict, people are fatigued and facing their own family and personal priorities.

We will maintain our presence here by sharing shorter versions of our work, along with links to our website for in-depth analysis. Additionally, we plan to begin providing weekly or bi-weekly summarized updates to our followers on the website through email distribution.

We invite you to follow us on our website to receive email updates and access our content in a more user-friendly format compared to the X platform:

https://frontelligence.substack.com

If that was the case, then my interaction numbers would be down. But in fact, my interaction numbers are up, as well as reposts. But visibility is much lower

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) November 1, 2023

Max Seddon at The Financial Times reports on Putin toning down his nuclear rhetoric: (emphasis mine)

Alone in a windowless room in the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin last week presided over Russia’s nuclear forces as they rehearsed a massive retaliatory strike from air, land, and sea.

Simulating a radioactive mushroom cloud that could render much of the planet uninhabitable served as a stark reminder of the nuclear deterrent the Russian president still has at his disposal.

The posturing, experts say, is Putin’s way of keeping nuclear tensions at a simmer even as he dialled down threats that had alarmed allies and foes alike about the war in Ukraine turning into an atomic conflagration.

Russia’s leader first stoked fears he could carry out a limited nuclear strike in Ukraine in a speech on the eve of the 2022 full-scale invasion. He then vowed to “use all the means at our disposal” to defend Moscow’s conquests when he annexed four Ukrainian regions six months later.

Those threats prompted the US, UK and France to vow retaliation with conventional weapons, according to current and former officials. China’s leader Xi Jinping, who has otherwise given tacit backing to Russia’s war in Ukraine, has also personally warned Putin against using nuclear weapons, including at a face-to-face meeting in March, officials said.

Putin admitted last autumn it would make no “political or military sense” to use tactical nuclear weapons and largely stopped talking about his atomic arsenal.

“It became clear that nobody likes the idea of nuclear weapons being involved in this war, and there was strong opposition from many countries, including those close to Putin,” said Pavel Podvig, a senior researcher at the UN Institute for Disarmament Research in Geneva.

Instead, in recent months, Russia has explored other ways to use its atomic arsenal as a deterrent against western support for Ukraine. While these measures fall short of outright threats, they attempt to show Russia’s determination in Ukraine, and the broader cost of standing in its way.

“There was an understanding that Russia won’t gain any friends by putting emphasis on its nuclear weapons,” Podvig said. “So the de-ratification of CTBT was a kind of compromise, if you will, between those who want a strong stick and those who realise it would be counterproductive.”

Western countries have reacted with restraint to Russia’s tests of its advanced new weapons systems, which have been plagued by delays and failed launches.

“Some of these are truly exotic systems that don’t particularly have any real military value,” Podvig said. “They allow Putin to say, we have a response and this is something that nobody else has. So it makes him happy, which in today’s Russia is no small thing.”

In Moscow, the measures taken in regards to the nuclear arsenal were portrayed as a sign of Russia successfully containing the west. “Less talk, more action,” said Dmitry Trenin, a prominent foreign policy academic who favours nuclear sabre-rattling to “bring back fear” in western capitals.

Putin’s moves showed he had realised that Russia’s attempts to deter the west from supporting Ukraine “need significant strengthening”, Trenin said. “This is an important step towards adapting our peacetime containment policy to the conditions of a real war, an indirect one for now.” In winning the war in Ukraine, Trenin said, “Russia will look at all the resources it has without exception, including heightened nuclear containment.”

Much more at the link!

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

These are Vadym and Sasha, military sappers who lost their legs. You helped them get their prostheses. Mykhailo and I are very grateful to you😍 If you can help other sappers with a prosthesis, here is the link: https://t.co/0dqffB350j
My PayPal [email protected] pic.twitter.com/WlhZL5cK1x

— Patron (@PatronDsns) November 1, 2023

And a new, but related, video from Patron’s official TikTok!

@patron__dsns

Хочеш зустрітись зі мною або отримати відбиток моєї лапки?🥰Тоді обов’язково долучайся до мого збору на протезування саперів! Усі умови вже розповів у своєму інst!🐾❤️

♬ je te laisserai de mots – ☆☆

Here’s a machine translation of the caption:

Do you want to meet me or get a print of my paw? 🥰 Then be sure to join my collection for prosthetic sappers! I have already told you all the conditions in my insta! 🐾❤️

I can’t access Instagram, so if someone wants to post the relevant details in a comment please do!

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 616: General Zaluzhnyi’s Treatise on Modern Positional WarfarePost + Comments (22)

There’s no place like home…

by Betty Cracker|  November 1, 20232:45 pm| 110 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Just returned from my Appalachian adventure yesterday evening. The dogs greeted me with a mixture of joy and rage. (We’re so happy to see you! Also, where the fuck were you?!?)

This wasn’t a planned vacation; a friend and I glommed onto my sister and sister-in-law’s holiday (at their invitation). It was fun to (mostly) unplug, hang out with some of my favorite people and explore an area we’re all unfamiliar with. To me, that’s the perfect recipe for adventure, and we had a few.

We went on long hikes to find waterfalls and other stuff in the woods, though I stopped going after a couple of days because my knees were killing me. (I am old.) We did lots of dog-friendly things because we were accompanied by a dog who’s nervous when left on her own and doesn’t get along with other dogs.

Fortunately, dogs are welcome in many outdoor venues in the Southern Appalachians, including vineyards, and the weather was fine, so she got to accompany us almost everywhere. We developed a routine when approaching a dog-friendly venue: Two of us would reconnoiter, noting the location of other dogs so we could keep ours as far away as possible. (The rationale is that this was necessary because the dog is reactive, but in reality, it’s mostly that her moms are paranoid about their dog making a scene, which she didn’t, even when other dogs were present.)

We also visited no-dogs-allowed venues in twos, such as the fabulous Sasquatch museum in Blue Ridge, GA. (Highly recommended!) Y’all wouldn’t believe the wonders assembled there, which are touted as artifacts that can convert skeptics into believers. For example, there was this alleged Bigfoot turd:

There’s no place like home…

I remain skeptical. Wouldn’t a Sasquatch loaf be a treasure-trove of DNA evidence of the creatures’ existence? And yet there it is in a display case, even though there’s a DNA lab in the facility.  

Anyhoo, it’s an impressive turd regardless. It would have made a better GOP Speaker of the House than the dude who got the job, and it would probably outpoll DeSantis and Nikki Haley in the Repub presidential primary, though the even larger turd Trump would likely retain the lead. 

This trip confirmed a notion that I stray from frequently but ultimately return to again and again: I actually do belong in Florida. The topography and weather suit me.

Mountain roads make me queasy. As a passenger, I just have to shut my eyes and make peace with impending death, like an occupant of a No Exit rollercoaster car that will inevitably plunge to its doom. As a driver, I have to resist the urge to stomp on the brakes as the vehicle hurtles downhill. It’s scary!

Also, when we entered the higher altitudes, my sinuses bricked. I don’t normally have allergies, and I don’t know that that’s what it was. All I know is I could not breathe properly and had several nosebleeds — the alarming kind that necessitate frequent laundering. I think the lack of humidity may have been a factor.

There’s much to deplore about Florida, not least its awful politics and suffocating heat and alarming reptiles. But as much as I enjoyed my ramble, my heart soared when we crossed the state line. Home!

Open thread.

There’s no place like home…Post + Comments (110)

Balloon Juice Meet-up in Lancaster, PA on Saturday Afternoon!

by WaterGirl|  November 1, 20231:42 pm| 34 Comments

This post is in: Balloon Juice, Meetups, Open Threads

JAFD suggested an impromptu meetup at the Fall In convention in Lancaster, PA.  You do not have to be attending the convention itself in order to join the meetup!  Bring your own beverages!

If you want to go, send me an email and I’ll share JAFD’s contact information with you.

JAFD, did you mention a time?  Or a time range?

From JAFD:

Salutations,

Back in July I mentioned on Balloon Juice that I’d been to
Historicon, “the grand gathering of grown-ups who still play with toy
soldiers” the previous weekend. And got a couple of responses “Hey, I
was there too”.

So thought that we could pick a time and place at Fall In, meet up, say
hello. And since I’d be in the Close Action game in the Strasburg Room,
Saturday afternoon, seemed logical place. So put a blog post up “Here’s
where I’ll be Saturday afternoon, drop by”

Well, a couple of other people, not ‘toy soldier fans’, said “I’d like
to drop by, meet you.” and “sounds interesting, can I visit this?”

I checked with the convention director, and if you are going to join us for the impromptu meetup, this is what you’ll need to know (from the convention director):

The hotel is open to anyone who wishes to enter it so we cannot prevent anyone that is interested in seeing the convention from coming in and walking around the hotel spaces. We have only 2 requests: 1. A visitor cannot enter the Vendor area or the Flea Market without a badge (these are the only 2 areas we try to enforce the badge rule). 2. We would prefer to not have Visitors play in games without a badge (this last part is tricky as a GM may allow unregistered guests to play in his or her game, we cannot stop that, it is just that we prefer for folks to have badges so the GMs can see their names.). If your online friends are interested in staying and seeing more of the convention you can bring them up to Registration in the Wheatland Room and we can set them up with a badge based on whatever admission (weekend or Day only) they want. I hope this helps. See you at the show.

Convention Director, Fall In! 2023

TOTALLY OPEN THREAD

Update from JAFD.  Promoting from the comments.

Greetings, fellow jackals !

1 – This is at the Wyndham ‘Lancaster Host’, 2300 Lincoln Highway East (Business US 30) – ie, across the road from the Dutch Wonderland amusement park.  It’s big 1950’s-style place, added to and rebuilt over past 65 years.  Lot of added ramps and short elevators.

2 – You may want to download the ‘Guidebook’ smartfone app, and the ‘HMGS Fall In 2023′ guidebook, which’ll give you more info about the event and should have a floor plan of hotel.

3 – My friends’ miniature Napoleonic- era naval battle is scheduled from 1 to 6 PM on Saturday afternoon in the Strasburg Room.  To get there, go in front door of hotel, up half-flight of stairs to main lobby.  There’s a staircase going down to left of hotel’s front desk, go down it.  Turn left at bottom, then left again, Strasburg Room is on right at end of corridor

4 – Most of the people invoved in the games will be either (a) plotting or making their moves, or,

(b) ready to tolk your ears off about their figures, the history, etc.  Hope you want to listen.

 

Balloon Juice Meet-up in Lancaster, PA on Saturday Afternoon!Post + Comments (34)

Chill Grey Dawn Open Thread: After the Raid

by Anne Laurie|  November 1, 20233:44 am| 63 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Chill Grey Dawn Open Thread:  After the Raid 2

Chill Grey Dawn Open Thread:  After the Raid

Chill Grey Dawn Open Thread:  After the Raid 1

People in the comments were trying to recall the Minion incident yesterday…

Trick or treat pic.twitter.com/bP7VpuRWZN

— Biden-Harris HQ (@BidenHQ) October 31, 2023

Chill Grey Dawn Open Thread:  After the Raid 3

(Mike Luckovich via GoGomics.com)

 

show full post on front page

Today in the Senate pic.twitter.com/czAdeWzGTR

— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) October 31, 2023

Chill Grey Dawn Open Thread:  After the Raid 4

Chill Grey Dawn Open Thread: After the RaidPost + Comments (63)

Wee Hours Open Thread

by WaterGirl|  November 1, 20232:34 am| 55 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Looks like we can use an open thread and a happy face.

What’s everybody up to?

Wee Hours Open ThreadPost + Comments (55)

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