Ukraine’s success in the battle for the Black Sea is what will be in history textbooks – President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s address

31 October 2023 – 22:24

I wish you good health, dear Ukrainians!

Today, there have been several important events.

Firstly, a meeting of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief’s Staff. Today is the International Black Sea Action Day, a special day dedicated to our region and our shared waters with our partners. At the Staff meeting, the first issue discussed was the operation of our export corridors, the defense of southern Ukraine – our cities, our ports – against Russian attacks. All of this matters not only to our state, not only to Ukraine’s security but much more broadly. During the full-scale war, we proved that when Ukraine, together with its partners, restores security to the Black Sea, the world gains dividends of greater security for other regions. This ranges from food security to social security because the stability of the food market influences the political stability of many countries in the complicated African and Asian regions. It is very important that due to Ukrainian courage, we practically push the Russian fleet out of the eastern part of the Black Sea – Russia cannot use our sea to extend its aggression to other parts of the world, as it did with Syria. When Russia caused a humanitarian catastrophe in Syria, using the Black Sea as its base, and later our Crimea as a staging ground for Russian military operations. Now, the situation has changed. Fundamentally changed. And when we add even more security to the Black Sea, Russia will lose any opportunity to dominate this area and spread its influence and destructiveness to other countries. The more protection we have along our coastline and in our sea, the more protection there is in the world.

Today, at the Staff meeting, reports were presented by the commander of the Navy, the Defense Intelligence Chief, and the Chief of the Security Service of Ukraine regarding our actions in the south and at sea. The Commander-in-Chief and the commanders of the directions also reported. I am grateful to all our people involved in this work for making Ukraine stronger in the respective directions. Of course, we analyzed the events on the frontlines – in all key points. Avdiyivka, Maryinka, Kupiansk, Lyman sector, the south – guys, thank you for today! There were reports from the Minister of Defense and the Minister for Strategic Industries on ammunition and equipment at the Staff meeting – we are increasing our production and preparing new defense packages from our partners.

Today, I held a special ceremony to award state honors to our soldiers who strengthen Ukrainian power in the battle at sea. The servicemen of the Navy and border guards who defend our waters. Soldiers of the Defense Intelligence and the Security Service. Engineers who create our new weapons – our naval drones – and ensure their functioning. These are all guys who cannot be shown in public, and their names cannot be tied to specific events. For now, as long as the war continues. But they truly deserve the gratitude of the state and the people. I thanked them on behalf of all Ukrainians.

I held a preparatory meeting regarding our work with the European Union. One of Ukraine’s key political goals by the end of this year is our readiness to begin negotiations on EU membership. All levels of the state must be prepared for this, and they will be. We expect a similar readiness from European institutions – we clearly understand the priorities, and we are preparing our steps accordingly.

I also spoke with Prime Minister of Bulgaria Denkov about everything that is relevant to this day, this time for Ukraine. I’m thankful to Bulgaria for their support of our European Union integration and for our highly productive partnership, especially in the Black Sea – in trade and security. It’s important that the agreements we reached during my visit to Bulgaria are fully implemented. We also discussed our additional security options.

The modern world quickly gets accustomed to success. When full-scale aggression began, many around the world expected Ukraine to not withstand. Now, the incredible things our people, our soldiers, are doing are perceived as a given. Ukraine’s success in the battle for the Black Sea is what will be in history textbooks, though it’s not discussed as often now. But… Whatever may be, we must do our part – protect our country, Ukrainian independence, our lives, our culture, Ukrainian freedom. And we will protect it!

I thank everyone in the world who is helping Ukraine. Glory to every one of our soldiers! Glory to all those who never retreat, never burn out, who believe in Ukraine just as they did on February 24, and who continue to fight for Ukraine, those who care for Ukraine. Adding strength to our state every day – that’s what’s needed.

Glory to Ukraine!

The cost:

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1719306550345453738

Avdiivka:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1719414049450934323

There’s 22 tweets in Dima’s thread and no Thread Reader app unroll for it. So I’m going to include a few of the tweets, but not all of them. ETA at 10:15 PM EDT: Bill Arnold in comments found a Thread Reader App unroll for Dima’s thread. So here’s everything including the first tweet that Special Kherson Cat quote tweeted above:

Avdiivka 🧵 part III

My name is Dima and today I have a birthday. I’m 27 and this is my second year in the army fighting against Russian invasion.

A have a lot of thoughts as to that, positive and negative.

But let’s talk about Russian losses and their attempts to attack👇

Apart from attacks from the NORTH RUAF are trying to advance from the SOUTH. From Vodiane to Severne village.

By the way, these photos from first message were taken in Severne this winter. 

They started attacking here from the 10th of October till know. Now I may say that this October is the bloodiest month for the Russian regular army.

2 tanks, 2 MTLB

Another one tank, 3 MTLB, 1 APC and 1 IMV from the 10th of October

Two more tanks from that date. And a couple of BMPs which were published officially before

These losses from the 10 till 17 of October: 4 BMP, 1 MTLB

2 BMPs, 2 MTLB?

Tank + BMP + MTLB 👇

That tank from above, documented tank, MTLB from above and one more MTLB

Tank, BMP and MTLB?

It was a T-72 tank

30.10.23 2 tanks, BREM and BMP-2👇

Oops

Well. That BMP was alive but then was destroyed 👆

Bid push. 30.10.23

…

What’s going on?

…

1-2 new BMPs and older losses

How it’s going?

Folks, if you want to give me a present or support our unit (that’s the biggest present) you may me a coffe👇

We are working at another important direction and need your support:

buymeacoffee.com/osint4uaa

And that’s all of it!

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1719331765536379377

Donetsk:

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1719410355426799992

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1719392704340082841

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1719454842492539377

Kupyansk:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1719448975516770631

Bakhmut from August:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1719429829257232832

Volonovakha:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1719277852334387214

Hroza:

https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1719404893696360722

Here’s the video of the Hroza survivor’s and their stories from UkrinformTV:

Not quite sure where the 71st is operating:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1719411411242139745

It’s not clear where exactly these Russian forces from Chuvash were when they got hit by a strike from a HIMARS battery.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1719326674913739139

Also, obligatory:

Dagestan:

https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1719175047544246597

https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1719176151711539511

The Financial Times has more details on the pogrom at the airport.

Vladimir Putin vowed to “de-Nazify” Ukraine when his troops invaded last year. Now Russia’s president is under pressure to respond to the worst antisemitic violence to sweep his country in more than a century.

The violent scenes across the North Caucasus last weekend, when an angry mob stormed an airport in Dagestan in search of Israeli passengers, were reminiscent of tsarist-era persecution of Jews. They also indicate the dangers for Russia of stoking antisemitic sentiment amid its full-scale invasion of Ukraine and repercussions from the Israel-Hamas war.

“When we read about the pogroms in Chișinău and Odesa” — where hundreds of Jews were killed in the 19th and early 20th centuries — “that’s what it looked like”, said Pinchas Goldschmidt, Moscow’s former chief rabbi, who left the country last year after Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

Crowds also over-ran a hotel in Dagestan on Saturday night, searching for Israelis, according to local media coverage. Kommersant reported that a Jewish centre under construction in Nalchik, the capital of the nearby Russian republic of Kabardino-Balkaria, was also set on fire.

The Kremlin has blamed the events in Dagestan on “external interference” by Ukraine and the west, which Putin accused of seeking to split Russian society ahead of a major holiday.

Putin used a Monday-night emergency meeting on the riots to point the finger at Kyiv and the governments that support it for inspiring the unrest. He claimed that western security services used social media to provoke the violence. “Psychological and informational attacks” were intended to “destabilise” Russia, he said.

Putin also escalated his criticism of Israel’s military actions in Gaza. “The terrifying events happening right now in Gaza, where hundreds of thousands of totally innocent people are being killed without differentiation, unable to flee, cannot be justified in any way,” he said.

“Unfortunately, we see that instead of punishment of the criminals and terrorists,” Putin said, referring to Hamas militants who attacked Israel on October 7, “revenge is being taken on the principle of collective responsibility.” More than 1,400 people were killed in the attacks according to Israeli authorities.

But the causes of the riots lie closer to home, analysts say. In majority-Muslim Dagestan, where the worst violence played out over the weekend, long-simmering social resentment mixed with public outrage over Israel’s bombing of Gaza to create a toxic brew authorities could no longer control.

“You see that state propaganda is going against Jews and Israelis, you see there is injustice going on, that it’s inflicted on you . . . so you retaliate against a softer target,” said Emil Aslan, a Caucasus specialist and security studies professor at Charles University in Prague.

Russia’s foreign ministry hosted a prominent Hamas delegation last week, while Putin during a meeting with religious leaders pointedly failed to condemn the Palestinian militant group’s October 7 attacks.

“This might have given a signal to interested parties that ‘hunting season’ has started,” Rabbi Goldschmidt said.

The resentment in Dagestan grew as Russia stoked antisemitic sentiment to fuel hatred of Ukraine, according to Arkady Mil-Man, a former Israeli ambassador to Moscow.

Putin has likened the invasion to the Soviet Union’s fight against Nazi Germany in the second world war and claimed that Ukraine is under the grip of a Nazi regime hell-bent on destroying Russia — even though its president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, is Jewish.

That contradiction has forced Putin and other senior Russian officials into having to resort to rhetorical twists.

Putin apologised to Israel last year after his foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, falsely claimed “Hitler also had Jewish blood” and, to justify calling Zelenskyy a Nazi, said that “the most ardent antisemites are usually Jews”.

Last month, Russia’s president appeared to deflect blame from the Nazi forces who ordered the capture and extermination of the Jewish population in Ukraine. “He is rewriting the narrative of the Holocaust,” Mil-Man said.

Critics say Putin’s comments have given rise to a wave of virulent coverage of the Israel-Hamas conflict on state television that has helped fuel even more lurid posts on social media in Dagestan.

In the first days after the Hamas attacks, false rumours began to spread on Russian social media that refugees from Israel were planning to settle in the North Caucasus, according to Alexandra Arkhipova, a sociologist who studies conspiracy theories.

“In Dagestan [and] the North Caucasus in general, it’s very easy to go from a conspiracy story to doing something in real life,” Arkhipova said. During the Covid-19 pandemic, protesters in the region tried to burn down 5G towers, egged on by false rumours that they spread the disease.

When Russia mobilised its reserves last year, Dagestanis protested more than in any other region — showing that “grassroots mobilisation is very strong. And people are willing to be galvanised by it.”

The Russian state’s normalisation and justification of violence during the war in Ukraine, meanwhile, may have encouraged the protesters to take matters into their own hands, she added.

“Evil can’t be put back into Pandora’s box, never to be seen again,” Arkhipova said. “Going forward, this situation becomes uncontrollable, because all sorts of groups feel that if others are violent, they can use that violence too.”

More at the link!

The Eastern District of New York:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1719472239467225532

Brooklyn Resident and Two Russian-Canadian Nationals, Nikolay Goltsev, Salimdzhon Nasriddinov and Kristina Puzyreva, Charged with Massive Sanctions Evasion and Export Control Scheme

“These defendants are alleged to have illegally exported millions of dollars in electronics to support the Kremlin in its ongoing attacks of Ukraine. Over the course of a year, this criminal organization evaded U.S. sanctions and laws, managing to dispatch over 300 shipments of restricted items, valued at approximately $10 million USD, to the Russian battlefield. This unlawful activity would have persisted if not for the law enforcement collaborative efforts that led to today’s charges,”
https://justice.gov/usao-edny/pr/brooklyn-resident-and-two-russian-canadian-nationals-charged-massive-sanctions-evasion

There were some questions the other night about Russia’s current missile capacity and capability. Here’s a thread with some additional answers:

https://twitter.com/Volodymyr_D_/status/1719305512884273230

https://twitter.com/Volodymyr_D_/status/1719305517921620427

https://twitter.com/Volodymyr_D_/status/1719305521650364534

https://twitter.com/Volodymyr_D_/status/1719305525635035571

Tatarigami has produced an assessment on how much material Russia has received from the DPRK:

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1719379856427761688

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1719379861708378292

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1719379866812924334

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1719379871275659755

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1719379875901927674

For you naval drone enthusiasts:

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1719279262178464255

The Insider has done a deep dive into a Russian disinformation campaign:

A flood of spam content has recently emerged on the social network X (previously known as Twitter), promoting the idea that Ukrainians should call for a ceasefire with Russia. The large-scale attack began on October 25th and saw tweets being sent out at a rapid rate of 2.5 tweets per minute, as reported by the analytical project Bot Blocker / antibot4navalny, which analysed the publications. The spam materials are being shared on fake websites that look like well-known news outlets — not only in Ukraine but also in Western countries. Simultaneously, “For Demobilization” protests were suddenly held in various Ukrainian cities, with women holding identical placards demaning to send Ukrainian soldiers home. Analytical data relating to the posts was made available to The Insider.

Columns on strange website

Some of the posts contain links to various pseudo-news and analysis articles. Analysts have pointed out that these posts are shared on websites that are deceptive imitations of well-known Ukrainian news sources. These articles consistently claim that Ukraine’s defeat in the war is imminent, suggesting that Western military and financial aid intended for Ukraine will be redirected to Israel, leaving Ukrainians without essential services such as heating, pensions, and salaries during the winter. Furthermore, they allege that in the absence of military equipment, the authorities in Kyiv are sending thousands of soldiers to the slaughter solely to maintain their grip on power.

The themes in these articles read as follows:

There is no need to hold Avdiivka, as Russia is pulling in reinforcements; Ukraine has been forced to go on the defensive and is suffering huge losses. There will be less Western aid as a lot of resources have been pulled away by Israel. Avdiivka may become another Bakhmut and Soledar: first huge human losses, then the loss of the stronghold itself. Here’s an example of one of these articles.
Ukraine no longer interests the West, Israel is more important — it will get weapons that were meant for Ukraine. Ukraine’s allies will induce Kyiv to negotiate with Moscow. Here’s an example of one of these articles.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky profits from military aid and war funding. The allocation of funds for the war . In order not to lose the financial inflows from the West, Zelensky will create the appearance of successful battles. Here’s an example
It’s not just Ukrainian sources that are being counterfeited. Pseudo-analytical columns predicting Ukraine’s apparent defeat are also being disseminated on counterfeit versions of well-known Western publications — including fake sites resembling Der Spiegel, Die Welt, Fox News, Le Parisien, Walla, and others. The links shared in the tweets direct users to these fake websites, which further redirect to the clone pages. Western audiences are being presented with a similar narrative: waning interest in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, a shift of attention towards Israel, and a belief that the Biden administration will no longer provide Kyiv with financial and military assistance.

This represents a large-scale spam campaign featuring pro-Kremlin content aimed at both Ukrainian and Western audiences. Several dozen articles have been distributed in English, French, German, and Hebrew.

The same accounts responsible for sharing these fake articles also promote direct Kremlin propaganda, including a video from the website ukraine inc portraying Vladimir Zelensky as a “drug addict.”

Two brothers
Bots have circulated a video about “two brothers” who were “separated due to the Ukraine coup / political crisis.” The video was initially posted on social platform X on October 25th, accompanied by links to the Russian social network VK and, in some cases, to Vimeo. The tweets were uniform in their messaging, claiming that “YouTube had removed the video, concealing the truth from us, and this is an essential story that we have the right to know.” Each account’s entire tweet history was essentially a string of these links featuring the same video clip. These tweets appeared without any discernible pattern, appearing as responses to various posts and comments, not exclusively in Russian.

According to the narrative, two brothers found themselves at war in Ukraine because of “political events.” Eventually, they encountered each other during an assault, fighting on opposing sides. Then one died near Horlivka, leading civilians out from under fire, and the second, who had gone to Kyiv before the war, was killed by shelling. The story is conveyed by a character identified as the “mother,” portrayed by Russian actress Olga Toroshchina, with one of the “brothers” played by Russian actor Roman Volynsky. The video only briefly alludes to the “political events,” including a clip of Russian President Boris Yeltsin’s speech at the 16th second, in which he commits to “leading Russia to better times.” This statement comes from Yeltsin’s speech after being elected chairman of the Supreme Soviet of the RSFSR on May 29, 1990.

As the project’s analysts explained to The Insider, the rapid and high-volume publication of these tweets suggests an automated process at work.

“Unlike traditional ‘salary trolls’ that we’ve been studying for over a year, this spam attack is purely based on automated publishing. That means it’s very cheap to multiply it by 10, 100, or 1,000 times. The current volume of the spam per minute is roughly comparable to what the ‘troll factory’ usually produces on Twitter. But live trolls at keyboards are expensive and difficult to scale, while automated spam is relatively straight foward.”

Fostering anxiety

These identical accounts are not limited to spreading anti-Ukrainian sentiments; many have also posted a photograph depicting a building wall adorned with the Stars of David. These accounts frequently post this image in the comments section of various posts. Across different languages, the descriptions of the photo are the same. Some common quotes include expressions like, “Sad to see the conflict has extended this far,” and “A sad reality of how global conflicts can impact ordinary lives.”

According to analysts at the Bot Blocker / antibot4navalny project, in this way is pumping up anxiety and shifting attention to the Arab-Israeli conflict from Ukraine.

“Our interpretation is that this is anxiety-inducing for Europeans: ‘Don’t think that the conflict in the Middle East is somewhere far away and won’t affect you. Jewish pogroms are already knocking on the door of your neighbor’s house. Are you ready for the next one to be yours?’ This is presented as ‘we are all in favour of a peaceful settlement and ceasefire; we don’t want pogroms at all’ — but the reference to pogroms here is precisely a means of intimidation. It’s like Russia Today during the coronavirus pandemic: we tell Western audiences how many side effects there are from vaccinations, how badly the authorities are handling the crisis, and tell Russian audiences how important it is to get vaccinated, how perfectly tested the vaccines are, how the Ministry of Health is clearly in control of everything. This is what’s happening here: we scare the West with war, while what happens at home is the concern of the office next to us [in reference to the Russian government — translator’s note].”

The Kremlin is behind the attacks

Hackers from Russia’s military intelligence agency, the GRU, have been planting disinformation and carrying out phishing attacks through fake international media websites for many years, and these attacks have only intensified after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The Insider previously wrote about this work of the agency in its investigation Attack of the clones: GRU begins large-scale cyberattack on Ukraine.

The project’s analysts also note that, to all appearances, the pro-Russian fake columns and the video about the “brothers” were commissioned by the Russian authorities. Several signs point to this:

The notes have Ukrainian-language and Russian-language versions. The links lead to Ukrainian-language sites, but the titles of the articles in the links are in Russian, as if the editorial staff’s main language is Russian.

There is no reason for real Ukrainian speakers and journalists to post articles on third-party websites.

The accounts are mostly subscribed to major Kazakhstani media / authorities. That indicates that they were created by a Kazakhstani contractor or from under a VPN with access to a server in Kazakhstan.

The profiles sharing the video featuring the “brothers” and related posts tend to have minimal or empty subscription lists. In most cases, they include just one or two large Kazakhstani accounts. Typically, there are a total of three accounts in their subscriptions, with the third one being Elon Musk. X (formerly Twitter) routinely prompts new users to follow Musk immediately upon registration. These accounts were established on the social network between September and October 2023.

Narratives in the articles:

• Western weapons from Ukraine end up in third countries.
• Zelensky is profiting from the war.
• Military aid from the West will be redirected to Israel, and Ukraine will practically stop receiving it.
• Narratives in a video about the “brothers” originally posted on VK:
• The collapse of the USSR is the greatest catastrophe.
• The cause of the war is the illegal change of power in Ukraine.
• Propaganda narratives in videos on ukraine.inc:
• Volodymyr Zelensky is a drug addict and alcoholic.
• People are sent to the front with any degree of disability.

Much, much more at the link!

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There is a new slideshow at Patron’s official TikTok. Those don’t embed here, so click through if you want to see it.

And a happy birthday to whomever this is:

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1719451676816617621