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The line between political reporting and fan fiction continues to blur.

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DeSantis transforming Florida into 1930s Germany with gators and theme parks.

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The truth is, these are not very bright guys, and things got out of hand.

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People really shouldn’t expect the government to help after they watched the GOP drown it in a bathtub.

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Open Threads

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Late Night Horrorshow Open Thread: When Death Is Too Profitable To Regulate

by Anne Laurie|  November 3, 20232:02 am| 81 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., Gun Issues, Open Threads, Republican Venality

One Nation Under the Guns- STOCKPILE

(Matt Davies via GoComics.com)

 

BREAKING: Audit documents obtained by @CREWcrew show the NRA is hemorrhaging money and members.

Since 2016, the NRA has had a 52% drop in overall revenue and a 59% drop in membership dues.

Meanwhile, the agency is swamped in legal fees due to ballooning litigation. pic.twitter.com/s9DMXMJLel

— Nick Knudsen 🇺🇸 (@NickKnudsenUS) October 26, 2023

This might be considered a hopeful sign… Robert Maguire, at CREW, “NRA revenue in freefall as member dues plummet”:

The National Rifle Association is bleeding money and members, according to a financial audit obtained by CREW. Last year, the organization saw its worst fundraising totals in more than a decade, fueled by member dues that have fallen to lows not seen since the early 2000s. The fall has been so swift that the gun organization’s income from its members has been halved in just six years, while its legal fees have remained stratospheric…

According to the audit, which was filed with the Secretary of State’s office in North Carolina, the NRA raised more than $213 million in 2022, with more than $83 million coming from dues-paying members. The totals mark a 52 percent drop in overall revenue and a nearly 59 percent drop in membership dues since 2016, adjusting for inflation. A CREW analysis of NRA dues going back to 2004 could not find a single year where dues ever went below $100 million, in inflation-adjusted terms…

All of this takes place against a backdrop of intense internal turmoil at the organization. Some of the highest-ranking officials have resigned or been suspended, and some faced legal action. Meanwhile, staff has dwindled and core programs have been slashed. Yet, ironically, as the organization flounders, a conservative super-majority on the Supreme Court is handing the NRA more victories, thanks to three justices installed by the president the NRA helped elect, back when it was flush with cash.

Pivot to video!

The gun industry is targeting kids using TikTok, Instagram, and video games.

A new report exposes the marketing of AR-15s and other firearms to America’s youth. https://t.co/iXSJPxOpFQ pic.twitter.com/rpPL2IbvQR

— Mother Jones (@MotherJones) October 26, 2023

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Mother Jones, “How the Gun Industry Targets Kids Using TikTok, Instagram, and Video Games”:

Since 2020, firearms have been the leading cause of death for children and teens in America, killing thousands each year. Shootings and threats of gun violence in the nation’s schools have also escalated sharply. These trends are accompanied by another stark and evolving phenomenon: insidious marketing to kids by the gun industry.

The promotional tactics that gun manufacturers and sellers use with social media, video games, and other entertainment are the focus of a new report from Sandy Hook Promise, the gun-violence prevention group led by parents of children killed in the elementary school massacre 11 years ago in Newtown, Connecticut. The report, “Untargeting Kids,” highlights how the gun industry shifted away from a longstanding culture of safety and responsibility to cultivate a market of young consumers—a demographic inundated with social media and uniquely vulnerable, according to researchers, to provocative and seductive messaging…

Social media companies have banned the direct sales of guns on their platforms, but that doesn’t stop the firearms industry from promoting or amplifying gun content from high-profile figures. One example cited in the report is a January 2020 Instagram post from gun manufacturer Daniel Defense that features a photo of music star Post Malone showing off one of its AR-15-style rifles, the MK18, while standing in front of a bar stocked with liquor.

“MK18 got me feeling like a rock star,” says the Daniel Defense comment, appended with music and fire emojis and a handful of hashtags, including “#gunporn.” The post has drawn nearly 30,000 likes from Instagram users…

Online videos accessible to youth are another source of concern. According to one study highlighted in the Sandy Hook Promise report, YouTube serves up algorithmic content glorifying assault weapons and offering instructions on everything from how to assemble rapid-fire mechanisms and “ghost guns” to shooting through bulletproof glass and acquiring firearms illegally.

The gun industry has favored aggressive marketing for more than a decade, as companies realized that vast profits could be made from the increasingly popular AR-15-style rifles. One early Daniel Defense ad suggested civilian buyers could be just like US special forces, overlaying a battlefield scene with the slogan, “Use What They Use.” As I wrote recently in a review of American Gun, a deeply reported new book tracing the history of the AR-15, documents revealed in a lawsuit by Sandy Hook families showed how gunmakers intentionally used brash themes of masculinity and militarism to help sell these weapons. Among such efforts was also the infamous “Man Card” campaign that Remington had used to promote the Bushmaster rifle later wielded by the Sandy Hook mass shooter. Last year, nearly a decade after that massacre, Remington agreed to a landmark $73 million civil settlement with victims’ families…

Violent video games have been blamed for causing mass shootings ever since Columbine in 1999. While there’s no evidence supporting that theory, various young perpetrators over the years have fixated on graphically violent games or movies when spiraling into isolation, anger, and despair, a correlation that has raised questions and concerns among threat assessment experts. Nonetheless, gun companies have long been eager to have their AR-15s depicted in first-person shooters as a form of advertising, a tactic one sales executive called “seed planting” for a new generation of consumers. The Washington Post reported in a recent series on the AR-15 that representatives of two gun manufacturers met at a Nevada shooting range in 2010 with technicians working on “Call of Duty” to record the firing of AR-15s for the blockbuster gaming series. “No detail, even the click of inserting a magazine, was too small to capture, participants said,” according to the Post…

The Republican Party favors unregulated weapons ownership, even for the violently mentally ill— so that they can launch coup attempts against our nation.

— NAFO BoomerDog #NAFORapidResponseForce (@BeachBoomerDog3) October 26, 2023

One Nation Under the Guns- STOCKPILE 2

(Mike Luckovich via GoComics.com)

Late Night Horrorshow Open Thread: When Death Is Too Profitable To RegulatePost + Comments (81)

Breaking Open Thread: SBF Found Guilty On All Charges

by Anne Laurie|  November 2, 20238:12 pm| 73 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., Grifters Gonna Grift, Open Threads, Schadenfreude

More proof that crypto is the future. It took the Enron jury six whole days to convict. https://t.co/sNOohoi2wP

— Pinboard (@Pinboard) November 3, 2023

BREAKING: A jury has found Sam Bankman-Fried guilty of all 7 criminal counts against him. @Kr00ney reports. https://t.co/NML57SVCdL pic.twitter.com/PccrhR0Eac

— CNBC (@CNBC) November 2, 2023


Per CNBC, “Sam Bankman-Fried found guilty on all seven criminal fraud counts”:

A jury has found Sam Bankman-Fried guilty of all seven criminal counts against him. The former FTX CEO faces a maximum sentence of 115 years in prison.

Bankman-Fried, the 31-year old son of two Stanford legal scholars and graduate of Massachusetts Institute of Technology, was convicted of wire fraud and conspiracy to commit wire fraud against FTX customers and against Alameda Research lenders, conspiracy to commit securities fraud and conspiracy to commit commodities fraud against FTX investors, and conspiracy to commit money laundering.

He had pleaded not guilty to all charges.

The trial, which began in early October, pitted the testimony of Bankman-Fried’s former close friends and top lieutenants against the sworn statements of their former boss and ex-roommate. The jury returned a swift verdict after receiving the case at around 3:15 p.m. on Thursday and breaking for dinner at around 6 p.m…

The central question for jurors to consider was whether Bankman-Fried acted with criminal intent in taking customer funds from FTX and using that money to pay for real estate, venture investments, corporate sponsorships, political donations and to cover losses at Alameda.

Assistant U.S. Attorney Nicolas Roos told the court in his closing argument on Wednesday, there was “no serious dispute” that $10 billion in customer money that was sitting in FTX’s crypto exchange went missing. The issue, he said, is whether Bankman-Fried knew that taking the money was wrong.

“The defendant schemed and lied to get money, which he spent,” Roos said.

In the absence of a successful appeal, Bankman-Fried now awaits sentencing…

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So this didn't work https://t.co/BbjNubvctX pic.twitter.com/cAxc7evKZv

— I'm on bluesky now (@InternetHippo) November 2, 2023

but nfts are still legit right

— Philip Bump (@pbump) November 3, 2023

Sam Bankman-Fried to join Harvard’s Institute of Politics

— New York Times Pitchbot (@DougJBalloon) November 3, 2023

Breaking Open Thread: SBF Found Guilty On All ChargesPost + Comments (73)

War for Ukraine Day 617: The Context Behind General Zaluzhnyi’s Treatise on Modern Positional Warfare

by Adam L Silverman|  November 2, 20236:54 pm| 32 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War in Ukraine

Graphic by NEIVANMADE of a Russian bomb with a "Z" symbol on it crashing through the roof of the Ukrainian Postal Service delivery hub. "Everyone Is a Target" and "Stop Russia" are written in the space between the destroyed roof and the fins of the bomb.

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Last night I posted the link to and excerpts from General Zaluzhnyi’s recently published treatise on modern positional warfare. What I didn’t do was post excerpts from his interview in The Economist that provided the context to his thinking because the link I had was paywalled. YY Sima_Qian posted a gift link (thanks!) in the comments after I’d racked out last night, so we now have excerpts for context. Those will be after President Zelenskyy’s address/after the jump.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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I am confident Ukraine will definitely win; be confident in yourselves – address by the President of Ukraine

2 November 2023 – 20:39

I wish you good health, dear Ukrainians!

A brief report for this day.

First – a video conference. The military, intelligence, our security forces, government officials. Special attention, of course, to the front. And a report on the work of our maritime export corridor – I am grateful to all who are fighting and working to ensure Ukraine’s access to the global market. The results are good. Russia is gradually losing control of the Black Sea and retreating to the eastern part of the waters… We will reach them there as well.

Second – an extended meeting with our government officials. Regarding the steps Ukraine needs to take, both in the context of our transformation and in our work with partners. Specific reforms. In various areas. We are preparing bills and government decisions. Some of them will be adopted in the coming weeks.

Third – a conversation with President of the European Council Charles Michel. Our progress in moving towards the European Union. The decision we expect this year regarding the start of membership negotiations. This decision will be significant, a very symbolic step that reflects how much Ukraine has achieved. We also discussed the situation in the Middle East – the threat of escalation, a tragic scenario. It is important to protect as many lives as possible. I invited Charles, Mr. President, to visit Ukraine.

Fourth – I had a meeting with the Minister of Defence of the Netherlands, who visited Ukraine. The minister visited Kharkiv – and I am grateful for this, for the attention to one of our largest cities, which suffers from practically daily Russian terror. We discussed in detail the defense support that the Netherlands provides, and this is vital. Our agreements with Mark, Mr. Prime Minister Rutte, are being fully implemented. I am grateful to the entire political class of the Netherlands and the entire society for their belief in Ukraine, for their belief in our people.

Fifth – I am grateful to the United States for the new and very powerful sanctions decision. More than 220 Russian – and not only Russian – entities that work on aggression are now under U.S. sanctions. This is what is needed. Critical sectors of the aggressor’s economy. Sensitive schemes for terrorists. And every sanctions decision must work in full – so that there is no chance for Russia to circumvent the sanctions. The power of sanctions is the power of the world. We are constantly communicating with our partners for this purpose – a united world must only become stronger.

Two more things.

I had a very substantive meeting with government officials. Various directions of government work. We discussed the steps needed for the transformation of our state, our work with partners, with donors. About government decisions, the necessary bills, strengthening institutions. We set priorities and are preparing new steps – in the coming weeks, by the end of the year, and on an annual basis.

And what I do every day is a great honor for me. Our warriors. Our gratitude. Those who distinguished themselves on this day. The Vuhredar direction – our strong 72nd separate mechanized brigade. Thank you, guys! Maryinka – the paratroopers of the 79th brigade, well done! Avdiyivka direction – the 31st, 47th, 53rd, and 110th separate mechanized brigades. I thank every soldier!

And Kupiansk direction – the 14th and 32nd separate mechanized brigades, the 57th separate motorized infantry brigade – I’m proud of you, guys! And I have confidence in you – just like on February 24th. I am confident that Ukraine will definitely win. Be confident in yourselves.

I am proud of everyone who fights for Ukraine, who destroys occupiers, who restores our positions. Those who are in the trenches right now. Those who are at combat posts. Those who train our soldiers. Those who produce weapons, ammunition, and equipment for Ukraine. Those who teach our children. Those who treat and save after strikes. Those who provide a normal life in our cities. Those who give us light. Everyone who gives us confidence – our parents, our children… Those who love us. Those who pray for us, for victory. Those who help us from all corners of the world. Those who endured basements and occupation – and did not break. Everyone who does everything every day to liberate Ukraine and Ukrainians from Russian captivity.

I am proud of you, Ukrainian people! I am proud of you, Ukrainian soldier!

Glory to Ukraine!

President @ZelenskyyUa:
«It's important to never forget how many people – different people – put their efforts into protecting our state and Ukrainians, preserving Ukraine, the resilience of our state, our society, and each and every one of us.

Thank you to everyone who cares… pic.twitter.com/o4lkIPcPHi

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 2, 2023

President @ZelenskyyUa:
«It’s important to never forget how many people – different people – put their efforts into protecting our state and Ukrainians, preserving Ukraine, the resilience of our state, our society, and each and every one of us.

Thank you to everyone who cares about the interests of Ukraine and Ukrainians! »

Was pleased to welcome to Kyiv Kajsa Ollongren, @DefensieMin of the Netherlands.

Grateful to Ms Ollongren and her country for their leadership in the F16 Coalition, including their willingness to provide aircraft and pilot training.

Briefed my colleague on the priorities of the… pic.twitter.com/8oY40px1xh

— Rustem Umerov (@rustem_umerov) November 2, 2023

Was pleased to welcome to Kyiv Kajsa Ollongren, @DefensieMin of the Netherlands.

Grateful to Ms Ollongren and her country for their leadership in the F16 Coalition, including their willingness to provide aircraft and pilot training.

Briefed my colleague on the priorities of the ministry’s activity and the situation at the frontline.

F16: Next year in Ukraine.
We're getting ready.

📹: Haci Production pic.twitter.com/tzVXbiosDk

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 2, 2023

We are grateful to our German partners for another important military aid package, which includes:

◾️12 Armoured Personnel Carriers
◾️2 air surveillance radar TRML-4D
◾️7 reconnaissance drones Primoco ONE
◾️2 AMPS self-protection systems for helicopters
◾️5 unmanned surface…

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 2, 2023

We are grateful to our German partners for another important military aid package, which includes:

◾️12 Armoured Personnel Carriers
◾️2 air surveillance radar TRML-4D
◾️7 reconnaissance drones Primoco ONE
◾️2 AMPS self-protection systems for helicopters
◾️5 unmanned surface vessels
◾️10000 safety glasses
◾️32 SatCom terminals
◾️1 PCB printer
◾️4 truck tractor trains 8×8 HX81 and 4 semi-trailers*
◾️12 trucks MAN TGS
◾️30,000 winter clothing sets

🇺🇦🤝🇩🇪
#StandWithUkraine
@BMVg_Bundeswehr

Here are some excerpts from The Economist‘s interview with General Zaluzhnyi: (emphasis mine)

FIVE MONTHS into its counter-offensive, Ukraine has managed to advance by just 17 kilometres. Russia fought for ten months around Bakhmut in the east “to take a town six by six kilometres”. Sharing his first comprehensive assessment of the campaign with The Economist in an interview this week, Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, General Valery Zaluzhny, says the battlefield reminds him of the great conflict of a century ago. “Just like in the first world war we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate,” he says. The general concludes that it would take a massive technological leap to break the deadlock. “There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough.”

The course of the counter-offensive has undermined Western hopes that Ukraine could use it to demonstrate that the war is unwinnable, forcing Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, to negotiate. It has also undercut General Zaluzhny’s assumption that he could stop Russia by bleeding its troops. “That was my mistake. Russia has lost at least 150,000 dead. In any other country such casualties would have stopped the war.” But not in Russia, where life is cheap and where Mr Putin’s reference points are the first and second world wars, in which Russia lost tens of millions.

An army of Ukraine’s standard ought to have been able to move at a speed of 30km a day as it breached Russian lines. “If you look at NATO’s text books and at the maths which we did, four months should have been enough time for us to have reached Crimea, to have fought in Crimea, to return from Crimea and to have gone back in and out again,” General Zaluzhny says sardonically. Instead he watched his troops get stuck in minefields on the approaches to Bakhmut in the east, his Western-supplied equipment getting pummelled by Russian artillery and drones. The same story unfolded on the offensive’s main thrust in the south, where inexperienced brigades immediately ran into trouble.

“First I thought there was something wrong with our commanders, so I changed some of them. Then I thought maybe our soldiers are not fit for purpose, so I moved soldiers in some brigades,” says General Zaluzhny. When those changes failed to make a difference, the general told his staff to dig out a book he once saw as a student. Its title was “Breaching Fortified Defence Lines”. It was published in 1941 by a Soviet major-general, P.S. Smirnov, who analysed the battles of the first world war. “And before I got even halfway through it, I realised that is exactly where we are because just like then, the level of our technological development today has put both us and our enemies in a stupor.”

General Zaluzhny describes a battlefield in which modern sensors can identify any concentration of forces, and modern precision weapons can destroy it. “The simple fact is that we see everything the enemy is doing and they see everything we are doing. In order for us to break this deadlock we need something new, like the gunpowder which the Chinese invented and which we are still using to kill each other,” he says.

This time, however, the decisive factor will be not a single new invention, but will come from combining all the technical solutions that already exist, he says. In a By Invitation article written for The Economist by General Zaluzhny, as well as in an essay shared with the newspaper, he urges innovation in drones, electronic warfare, anti-artillery capabilities and demining equipment, as well as in the use of robotics.

Western allies have been overly cautious in supplying Ukraine with their latest technology and more powerful weapons. Joe Biden, America’s president, set objectives at the start of Russia’s invasion: to ensure that Ukraine was not defeated and that America was not dragged into confrontation with Russia. This means that arms supplied by the West have been sufficient in sustaining Ukraine in the war, but not enough to allow it to win. General Zaluzhny is not complaining: “They are not obliged to give us anything, and we are grateful for what we have got, but I am simply stating the facts.”

Yet by holding back the supply of long-range missile systems and tanks, the West allowed Russia to regroup and build up its defences in the aftermath of a sudden breakthrough in Kharkiv region in the north and in Kherson in the south late in 2022. “These systems were most relevant to us last year, but they only arrived this year,” he says. Similarly, F-16 jets, due next year, are now less helpful, suggests the general, in part because Russia has improved its air defences: an experimental version of the S-400 missile system can reach beyond the city of Dnipro, he warns.

The delay in arms deliveries, though frustrating, is not the main cause of Ukraine’s predicament, according to General Zaluzhny. “It is important to understand that this war cannot be won with the weapons of the past generation and outdated methods,” he insists. “They will inevitably lead to delay and, as a consequence, defeat.” It is, instead, technology that will be decisive, he argues.

Crimea, the general believes, remains Mr Putin’s greatest vulnerability. His legitimacy rests on having brought it back to Russia in 2014. Over the past few months, Ukraine has taken the war into the peninsula, which remains critical to the logistics of the conflict. “It must know that it is part of Ukraine and that this war is happening there.” On October 30th Ukraine struck Crimea with American-supplied long-range ATACMS missiles for the first time.

General Zaluzhny is desperately trying to prevent the war from settling into the trenches. “The biggest risk of an attritional trench war is that it can drag on for years and wear down the Ukrainian state,” he says. In the first world war, politics interfered before technology could make a difference. Four empires collapsed and a revolution broke out in Russia.

Mr Putin is counting on a collapse in Ukrainian morale and Western support. There is no question in General Zaluzhny’s mind that a long war favours Russia, which has a population three times and an economy ten times the size of Ukraine. “Let’s be honest, it’s a feudal state where the cheapest resource is human life. And for us…the most expensive thing we have is our people,” he says. For now he has enough soldiers. But the longer the war goes on, the harder it will be to sustain. “We need to look for this solution, we need to find this gunpowder, quickly master it and use it for a speedy victory. Because sooner or later we are going to find that we simply don’t have enough people to fight.”

In all seriousness, we in Ukraine are blessed by heaven to have a top military leader who is talented enough to have achieved outstanding, historically remarkable victories against an overwhelmingly stronger adversary despite a dire lack of resources – and also who is capable of…

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) November 2, 2023

In all seriousness, we in Ukraine are blessed by heaven to have a top military leader who is talented enough to have achieved outstanding, historically remarkable victories against an overwhelmingly stronger adversary despite a dire lack of resources – and also who is capable of admitting his mistakes, talking about complicated truths, and laying out proper plans of how to move on.

Zaluzhny’s military is far from perfect, his war is brutal and bloodletting, and his burden is heavy. That’s for sure.

And from his article for the Economist, it gives me hope that we have Zaluzhny against Russia’s “seizig Kyiv in three days,” and “18,000 Ukrainian vehicles destroyed” and Shoigu’s “37 Ukrainian aircraft downed this month alone”.

For those of you who have been reading along for the past 616 days you know that my major criticism of the Biden administration’s approach to Ukraine is that it has been too risk averse, too slow, and unable to actually recognize the reality that we are in a world war and have been since Putin declared one at the Munich Security Conference in 2007 while blaming it on the US, our EU, and our NATO allies. As a result our defense industrial base is still not on a way footing and now we have two theaters of operations to worry about and no way to properly provision our allies and partners in either one. The result is that Putin has solidified his position and functionally frozen the conflict. At every single decision point, Putin has gotten what he wanted from the US: risk aversion, indecision, and a too slow by (at least) half response from the administration. From Congress he’s gotten gridlock now that the GOP controls the House and there is a sufficient nationalist-populist/isolationist/anti-Ukrainian rump among the Senate GOP to ensure that any further legislation to provide aid to Ukraine are unlikely to pass.

https://twitter.com/john_sipher/status/1720061048860938499

Gallup poll published on Thursday suggests US public growing increasingly skeptical of Ukraine funding. 41% of Americans believe US doing “too much” to support Ukraine, compared with 29% in June. Americans who think US backing for Kyiv “not enough” edged down to 25%; 28% in June. pic.twitter.com/uS1amXQL4t

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) November 2, 2023

What this leaves is the last $5 billion already appropriated and presidential drawdown authority under a declared emergency. Reuters has the details on that:

WASHINGTON, Nov 2 (Reuters) – The Biden administration plans to announce a $425 million military aid package for Ukraine on Friday including counter drone rockets and munitions, two U.S. officials said on Thursday.

The package is not expected to include additional ATACMS missiles. Senior congressional Republicans have urged President Joe Biden to send longer-range missiles to Ukraine, despite pushback from some conservative lawmakers against more aid.

The planned aid package for Ukraine includes about $300 million worth of laser-guided munitions to shoot down Russian drones, according to a document seen by Reuters and one of the officials. The funds for those munitions come from the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) program, which allows the Biden administration to buy weapons from industry rather than pull from U.S. weapons stocks.

The remainder of the $125 million worth of weapons pledges include additional munitions for National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) air defenses, munitions for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), 105 and 155 millimeter artillery, TOW anti-tank weapons, Claymore anti-personnel mines, small arms, and a dozen trucks, according to the officials who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Those weapons pledges are made possible by utilizing Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), which authorizes Biden to transfer articles and services from U.S. stocks without congressional approval during an emergency. The material will come from excess U.S. inventory.

The Biden administration still has about $5 billion of congressionally granted presidential drawdown authority, after the Pentagon found in June it had overestimated the value of arms shipped to Ukraine due to a $6.2 billion accounting error.

The Ukrainians are not going to stop, but if they fail to liberate all of their people and territory from Russian occupation, which amounts to a victory for Putin and Russia, that failure will not have been the result of any decision made in Kyiv or action taken on the battlefield in Ukraine. That failure will be the result of what was and was not done in the White House and in Congress.

Avdiivka:

Unbelievable.
The Battle of Avdiivka documented by Ukraine's 47th Mechanized. pic.twitter.com/BgGslMzEEj

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) November 2, 2023

47th Brigade of Ukraine repels Russian attacks on Avdiivka.https://t.co/5mOtKuwzRJ pic.twitter.com/YxUy42HV2k

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 2, 2023

Ukrainian journalist Butusov with a fairly detailed overview of the Avdiivka battlefield, saying that mistakes were made by the military command that led to the current crisis, but Ukrainian forces remain in a favourable position if they manage to organise defence of the flanks… pic.twitter.com/WG3PtbvQO1

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) November 2, 2023

Here’s the four screen grabs of Dmitri’s translation of the reporting:

53rd Brigade drones dropping anti-tank mines on Russians in Vodyane, southern flank of the Avdiivka battle.https://t.co/tcGcxkw5Jy pic.twitter.com/BDFqrFx7sR

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) November 2, 2023

Vuhledar:

It's been almost exactly a year when Russians tried to storm Vuhledar for the first time and even a year later the results are the same: disastrous.#Ukraine #Donetsk #Vuhledar https://t.co/Iy3gHh3VaV

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) November 2, 2023

72nd Brigade of Ukraine repels Russian attack on Vuhledar front. Video by Deepstate.

“There is no full understanding of the circumstances of the battle yet. According to preliminary information, a column with a considerable amount of tanks and infantry tried to attack east of… https://t.co/iHNBopTaYU pic.twitter.com/BK5xvB2iWf

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 2, 2023

72nd Brigade of Ukraine repels Russian attack on Vuhledar front. Video by Deepstate.

“There is no full understanding of the circumstances of the battle yet. According to preliminary information, a column with a considerable amount of tanks and infantry tried to attack east of the village Mykilske. As a result, at least 18 AFVs were destroyed/damaged, some of them can be seen in the video.

Excellent work 72nd Brigade.”
https://t.me/DeepStateUA/17975

 

Deepstate about todays Russian attack attempt on Vuhledar front.

«Another column of the enemy has been defeated. This time in the Mykilske area.

⚔️As a result of heavy fighting, the enemy failed. A total of 18 AFVs were lost byRussians. Among them, at least 8 tanks and 3 MT-LB… pic.twitter.com/2120upMJtF

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 2, 2023

Deepstate about todays Russian attack attempt on Vuhledar front.

«Another column of the enemy has been defeated. This time in the Mykilske area.

⚔️As a result of heavy fighting, the enemy failed. A total of 18 AFVs were lost byRussians. Among them, at least 8 tanks and 3 MT-LB were preliminary identified. Russians tried to advance from the eastern outskirts of Mykilske.

📹 The video of the defeat will be coming soon.»

https://t.me/DeepStateUA/17974

The first videos of Russian morning attack on the Vugledar front began to appear. Preliminarily, Russian losses shown in the video are identified as: 1xT-80BV with the KMT-7 mine trawl; 2xT-72B3 obr.2022; 1xBMP-1 or 2.https://t.co/KpPrjtUjbL https://t.co/UrEbD8yvm9 pic.twitter.com/MLfrSPSoj2

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 2, 2023

This morning Russians made attempts to attack on the Vugledar front. It is said that at least 10 pieces of Russian equipment were destroyed.
Photos by soldiers of the 72nd Brigade of Ukraine.https://t.co/PUWy1eXK3Ohttps://t.co/5BmiuZViB3 pic.twitter.com/ekw8ukkA1j

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 2, 2023

Kupyansk:

Part 2
14th Brigade of Ukraine repels Russian attacks on Kupyansk front. https://t.co/pmfdwJlcVJ https://t.co/AJSeaKRHbj pic.twitter.com/I3ybM4yp35

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 2, 2023

Bakhmut:

Strike on Russian command and staff vehicle R-149AKSh-1. Bakhmut direction. ~22km from the front. https://t.co/z9z8gmwgcb pic.twitter.com/40jEFl6qh9

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 2, 2023

The left bank of the Dnipro, Russian Occupied Kherson Oblast:

Four more Russian BTR-82A destroyed in the left bank Kherson region. Video by the Birds of Magyar unit. https://t.co/D4ddlLd0uV pic.twitter.com/qqZUybWyAo

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 2, 2023

Svitlodarsk, Donetsk Oblast:

Strike on the Zala 421-16E during preparations for the flight. By the 3rd Separate Special Purpose Regiment of Ukraine. Near Svitlodarsk, Donetsk region.
P.S: The video is also a good reminder that shrapnel exists.https://t.co/ahGFPzPkIP pic.twitter.com/nFfZeupmdb

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 2, 2023

For you logistics and acquisitions enthusiasts:

Piranha AVD 360 electronic warfare complex, designed for protection of armoured vehicles and personnel against Russian UAVs, currently under development in Ukraine

“The complex creates a protective dome up to 600 meters around itself. Under the influence of the system, the… pic.twitter.com/1pexQIBhcA

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 2, 2023

Piranha AVD 360 electronic warfare complex, designed for protection of armoured vehicles and personnel against Russian UAVs, currently under development in Ukraine

“The complex creates a protective dome up to 600 meters around itself. Under the influence of the system, the copter or kamikaze drone cannot receive commands and transmit data. As a result, the “bird” either hangs in the air, makes an emergency landing, or falls uncontrollably.

Piranha also suppresses satellite navigation systems, for example, the Russian GLONASS. Now the system has successfully passed field tests and is ready for serial production.” – Minister of Digital Transformation of Ukraine, Mykhailo Fedorov.

https://t.me/zedigital/3802

Russian military wives after dark:

Fascinating story about the wives of Russian soldiers who have turned against the war – not because of the dead Ukrainian children but because their husbands left them for women they met in the occupied territorieshttps://t.co/NVPTLpYkV0

— Jade McGlynn (@DrJadeMcGlynn) November 2, 2023

Here’s some machine translated excerpts:

Since February 2022, Russian authorities have been cultivating the image of a war hero who, risking his life, protects his homeland and family from an external threat in Ukraine. But the wives of the military are increasingly recognized: the husband met another in the war and demands a divorce.
For some of them, it was the crisis in the family, and not thousands of reports of killed Ukrainians, that was an occasion to overestimate what was happening in Ukraine.

On September 25, 2023, two women met in one of the courts of the Yaroslavl region: Veronika, a local resident, and Svetlana, who came to a meeting from Voronezh. Both appeared in court for the sake of one divorce proceedings, in which mobilized Mikhail could not personally participate.

« Husband on the SVO, so he wrote a power of attorney on her, and she came to divorce me, — Veronica tells the journalist „ Turns “ voice message and crying. — Received mean — and my husband, and volunteer. The blow was good, unpleasant in the back. But the court postponed the divorce for three months. I immediately said that I want to keep the family ».

Since the fall of 2022, Svetlana has been purchasing humanitarian aid and military equipment for Russian soldiers and is transporting through frontline areas. So she met Veronica’s husband.

To file for divorce, they came to the Yaroslavl region together when the mobilized had a vacation in August. A few weeks before that, the volunteer wrote to Veronica in a snap.

« Say, I’m sorry, please, we fell in love with each other, God brought us together, — she retells her message. — And I replied: I brought you down, and I was saved ».

Veronica wrote about the fact that her marriage is crumbling in the comments of one of the largest communities in « VKontakte », where for more than a year the wives of Russian mobilized and contractors have been discussing their problems and supporting each other.

Anonymous reports of a crisis in the family alternate in groups with tips on how to encourage military personnel, what equipment to buy at the front, and what if the spouse came on vacation « the wrong person ». By posting on treason in a war or on the desire to divorce a fighting husband, many women admit that they are ashamed.

— Please, without judgment, and so enough. My husband turned out to be a traitor. We need a divorce from the mobilized, there is a child, he will be three years old soon. What documents are needed and how to do it without problems, then to live in peace and without tears?

— Anonymous because it is embarrassing. I cry every night in the pillow, put candles in the church for him, and he? But she faced condemnation. Mom is terrified of what I’m doing. How I will be alone with children, I must forgive and wait. In addition, no one canceled the money.

— My husband also found a Ukrainian with a child, and he no longer needs his own family. Even the photo posted them in « Classmates ». The son, when he saw, cried badly. Do not forgive them just for being at war.

— Mine also found another. Waited, cried, prayed that she would survive. And when he said « not needed », spat. He married and died.

— Lovely ladies, do not squish your nose! Grow spiritually! Of course, he did a bad job, but karma is smacking worse. We are waiting for the answer of the universe.

— Let it bring down. Do not spare, do not give a divorce. Will die — get paid. If he survives, he will remain naked and whores will not need it. That’s all the advice.

Community subscribers often ask administrators not to publish posts about military changes. Like, they increase the level of anxiety in readers and provoke new fears. Some women even claim that similar stories — « TAG1> are invented to » destroy the morale of « the Russian military and their families.

Those who really face treason reassure each other in personal messages, calculate alimony, turn to psychologists and energy practitioners to « forgive » spouse, or try to get him back from the war and keep his marriage at home.

Much, much more at the link!

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There’s a new slideshow at Patron’s official TikTok. Those won’t embed here, so if you want to see it click through.

Here’s some Patron adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.

This cat predicts that your day will be nice. Just believe it!

📸: 241st @TDF_UA Brigade pic.twitter.com/j404D95bWu

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 2, 2023

War for Ukraine Day 617: The Context Behind General Zaluzhnyi’s Treatise on Modern Positional WarfarePost + Comments (32)

News Roundup and Open Thread

by WaterGirl|  November 2, 20236:12 pm| 102 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Politics

Senator Chris Murphy speaks his mind on the state of the conflict in the middle east.

(click on the image to see a bigger, non-blurry version)

Senator Chris Murphy

⭐️

How long can Biden continue what I presume is the strategy: fully supporting Israel in public, and pushing hard – in private – against the way the war is being conducted?

I don’t see how the current Biden Administration approach to Israel is sustainable if Israel continues to conduct the war in Gaza as it has. My latest.https://t.co/q58DYOfraC via @thedailybeast

— David Rothkopf (@djrothkopf) November 2, 2023

⭐️

It seems that Chuck Schumer is running out of patience with the House.

SCHUMER says that the Senate won’t even *take up* the House’s Israel proposal.

So the reality for the House is that they will likely get an Israel-Ukraine-Taiwan bill and @SpeakerJohnson will have to decide what to do with that. https://t.co/JRVs5hnHCG

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) November 2, 2023

⭐️

This seems important.  Surely there have to be 10 or so Republicans that support the US Military?  It’s time to bench “the coach” who hates the military.

The Senate parliamentarian has told the authors of this resolution that the threshold for passage will be at 60, not 67. We were initially told by committee staff that the committee would decide the threshold.

Also, as the tweet below says, this is a standing order resolution. https://t.co/Se6S9UbjQF

— Andrew Desiderio (@AndrewDesiderio) November 2, 2023

⭐️

I can’t remember – is Eric the dumb one and Jr. is the one who appears fond of the white powder?

Unbelievable. Eric testified today and basically just lost the entire case.

1) After testifying he “never heard” about the Trump org statement of financial condition until recently, he later admitted that he knew about it in 2013.

2) After saying he never worked on it, he was… pic.twitter.com/i6vJ8d8QJD

— Mary L Trump (@MaryLTrump) November 2, 2023

⭐️

Oh, and Trump seems to be trying to put one over on the judges for the DC and Florida cases. It seems to me that he’s trying to get the DC case delayed because of the FL case, and vice versa. No one will notice, right?

New overnight: Special Counsel filed a smart brief to Judge Cannon to the fact that Trump filed a motion to delay his 2020 election trial in DC — after asking her to delay his classified docs trial (tho they also made a big typo in the final line) https://t.co/ltVfiqEBgx pic.twitter.com/JeL1QaVEql

— Hugo Lowell (@hugolowell) November 2, 2023

News flash: If you have a wife or a daughter, you aren’t a misogynist.  Or so Trump attorney Chris Kise seems to think!

⭐️

Totally open thread.

News Roundup and Open ThreadPost + Comments (102)

Face Full of Mace

by Betty Cracker|  November 2, 20232:19 pm| 121 Comments

This post is in: Elections 2024, Open Threads, Politics, Republican Stupidity

After her dumb “Scarlet Letter” stunt, I dismissed Nancy Mace (R-SC) as a Dollar Tree Kyrsten Sinema — an attention seeker whose phoniness and lack of principle were obvious to all observers. There was the evolving rationale for tanking Kevin McCarthy, most recently attributed by Mace to his failure to “move on women’s issues,” a claim that strains credulity coming from a Repub.

There was also Mace’s refusal to support Scalise for Speaker because he “attended a white supremacist conference and compared himself to David Duke.” Again, if you feel that way, you’re a Republican why? 

But I regret to inform you that Mace is a PR maven who may be playing the long game. The Daily Beast obtained an internal staff handbook from Mace’s office that reveals the congresswoman’s office is more PR shop than legislative hub:

Well before her fateful vote to remove Kevin McCarthy from the House speakership, Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) arrived on Capitol Hill as a freshman lawmaker with a grandiose vision of her role in government.

In a strategy memo she wrote in 2021, Mace described herself as “THE freshman thought leader on federal issues,” according to a copy obtained by The Daily Beast.

She even gave herself a brand name: “NATIONAL NANCY.”

NARCISSISTIC NANCY would be a better fit. The DB piece details how Mace requires her comms staff to issue a press release per day and book Mace on national TV programs between one and three times per day, in addition to six appearances on local channels per week.

That doesn’t leave a ton of time for legislating, which may explain why the only bill she’s ever sponsored that became law was renaming a Hilton Head P.O.

“It is not normal for a member to prioritize media and comms over actual legislation like that,” another former Mace staffer told The Daily Beast. “In my experience with and in other offices, comms serves to promote what the member is doing legislatively. In Mace’s office, legislation served to get her more media opportunities.”

However, Mace did manage to move a bipartisan bill to the floor before McCarthy got yeeted — Katie Porter (D-CA) cosponsored the bill, which proposes removing the college degree requirement for cybersecurity expert hiring by the federal government.

That’s all well and good, but Mace tortured the name of that bill into a self-referential promo: Modernizing the Acquisition of Cybersecurity Experts Act, or MACE Act.

An aside: this is one of my dumbest pet peeves, but I really hate bill names that are contrived for branding purposes, such as the USA PATRIOT Act (Uniting and Strengthening America by Providing Appropriate Tools Required to Intercept and Obstruct Terrorism) and Florida’s stupid Stop WOKE Act (Stop Wrongs to Our Kids and Employees Act). If I were congresswoman for a day, I’d propose the Stop coming up with contrived names To brand your Fucking Unexceptional bills (STFU) Act.

I digress, but the point is, Mace has an instinct for self-promotion that would make a Kardashian blush, and after seeing her recent appearance on The Daily Show, where she inundated every topic the host raised in a tsunami of winsome bullshit, I’m afraid we’ll be stuck with her for the long haul. She is slicker than owl shit, as my mom used to say. I’d be happy to be wrong because I’m already thoroughly sick of her.

Open thread.

Face Full of MacePost + Comments (121)

Open Thread (and Raskin Is Right)

by WaterGirl|  November 2, 202312:16 pm| 133 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Politics

I was kind of irritated yesterday that 25 Dems had voted against expelling Santos from the House.

But Raskin makes his case, and it’s a good one.

Raskin Is Right

Open thread.

Open Thread (and Raskin Is Right)Post + Comments (133)

Cold Grey Dawn Open Thread: At Least SBF Is Having A *Really* Bad Week…

by Anne Laurie|  November 2, 20235:13 am| 90 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., Excellent Links, Grifters Gonna Grift

Guy literally has two Ivy League law professors for parents and neither of them ever sat him down and gave him the “don’t go on tv and tell people all your crimes” talk https://t.co/SsRnyVHMzx

— Gas Stove Prayer Warrior (@canderaid) November 1, 2023

I have a new favorite reporter on the SBF Trial. Elizabeth Lopatto, at the Verge, says “Sam Bankman-Fried doesn’t recall”:

Midway through Sam Bankman-Fried’s cross examination, as prosecutor Danielle Sassoon went through a brutal line of questioning like a hot buzzsaw through a butter cow, I found myself reflecting on how smart the average person is. Maybe they don’t know calculus. Maybe they’ll never read Ulysses. Maybe they can’t code. But they definitely know how to identify bullshit when they see it.

So if you, like Bankman-Fried, have moved into the Clintonian territory of “it depends on how you define ‘trading’’” you done fucked up, son. Make whatever “sophisticated” argument you like; even the stupid will see through it.

At various points during Sam Bankman-Fried’s cross examination, I saw jurors shake their heads, frown so hard their lips disappeared, and make prolonged eye contact with each other. Personally, I now have a Pavlovian fear response to the phrase “Is it your testimony that…”

On the stand, Bankman-Fried’s demeanor suggested a spoiled child complaining he didn’t get the biggest scoop of ice cream at his birthday party. He didn’t want to answer the prosecutor’s questions, or his lawyer’s questions — he wanted to answer his own questions, which he liked better. He often replied to yes-or-no questions with nonsense…

Cold Grey Dawn Open Thread:  At Least SBF Is Having A *Really* Bad Week... 1

show full post on front page

Next day:

… Who was making decisions to spend $8 billion of customer funds? Bankman-Fried couldn’t recall knowing anything about it. Were there rules or requirements for how money borrowed from FTX would be returned? Were there rules for risk management? “I was concerned with overall risk management,” Bankman-Fried said.

But it was the testimony about June 2022 that resonated the most to me. Didn’t Bankman-Fried ask what “fiat@ftx” was? He did. But — I did hear these words uttered aloud in a court of law this morning, I am not creative enough to make this kind of thing up — his employees told him “they were busy and I should stop asking questions because it was distracting.”

Yedidia — Bankman-Fried’s college friend, Bahamas roommate, and employee at FTX — had testified that he’d asked Bankman-Fried about the $8 billion hole on a padel tennis court in their luxury complex in June or July. Today, in testimony, Bankman-Fried seemed to be trying to deny that conversation had ever taken place. It was not until Judge Lewis Kaplan intervened to ask if Bankman-Fried had ever been told by Yedidia about that money, in words or in substance, that Bankman-Fried admitted he’d been told.

“So it’s your testimony that your supervisees told you to stop asking questions?” Sassoon asked. She could have been filing her nails, her tone was so level. Had Bankman-Fried called anyone in to ask who spent $8 billion? “I wasn’t trying to build out blame for it,” he said. He was focused on solutions! Did he fire anyone? Nope!…

Look, uttering phrases like “hole isn’t really the word I would use” and responding to a question by saying you wanted “a few more qualifiers and scoping on it” do not, as a general rule, bode well for your believability. Yes, this will win certain kinds of nerd arguments. But this is a courtroom, and I have come to believe that if you know the meaning of the word “epistemology,” you absolutely should not testify in your own defense…

Sassoon successfully established yesterday that Bankman-Fried has a long history of dishonesty. Today, through a set of questions about what Bankman-Fried did and didn’t do, she established that the story he told on direct examination was absurd. After a brief redirect examination by Bankman-Fried’s own lawyers, which was resplendent with word salad, Bankman-Fried stepped down, and the defense rested their case.

Closing arguments start tomorrow, and then the case will be handed to the jury. In the meantime, I will continue to ponder the appropriate response to misplacing $8 billion. Crying? Fainting? Maybe it actually is padel tennis — I wouldn’t know. Net sports are not my area, and no one has ever given me $8 billion to misplace.

Cold Grey Dawn Open Thread:  At Least SBF Is Having A *Really* Bad Week... 2

Supplementary — Wired, “Sam Bankman-Fried Sealed His Fate Long Before the FTX Trial”:

… Bankman-Fried is standing trial on seven counts of fraud in connection with the collapse of FTX. The exchange fell into bankruptcy after users found they could no longer withdraw their funds, worth billions of dollars in aggregate. The money was missing, the US government claims, because Bankman-Fried had funneled it into a sibling company, Alameda Research, and used it for risky trades, debt repayments, personal loans, political donations, venture bets, and various other purposes.

Bankman-Fried recalls events differently. On the stand, under questioning by his own legal counsel, he painted himself as a well-intentioned but overworked businessperson. He conceded that costly mistakes were made with respect to risk management, but claimed never to have defrauded anyone. For every potentially incriminating aspect of the relationship between FTX and Alameda—the sharing of bank accounts, special trading privileges, and multibillion-dollar loans—there was a logical business explanation. The arrangement was perfectly above board, he implied…

For Bankman-Fried to have come across as evasive could be “deadly,” says Richman, because it implies that none of his responses—including to questions posed by his own lawyers—can be relied on. The defense had been trying to “recast the narrative from his perspective,” he says, but if the jurors conclude that “he forgets things that hurt him,” they won’t be inclined to favor him.

The FTX founder was bound to be evasive on the stand, though, because he had backed himself into a corner long before the trial began. Around the time of his arrest last December, he took a multitude of media interviews. He appeared on podcasts. He tweeted incessantly. He started his own Substack. He submitted written testimony to Congress. Much of it reappeared at trial in the form of government exhibits. The volume of public statements available to the prosecution in this particular case, says Tuchmann, is “something close to unique.”…

“Look, I can explain… ” has always worked for him before! I’ve known people like SBF, and I suspect he’s genuinely bewildered that his Universal Loophole isn’t working for him any longer. Don’t these people know he’s a very gifted precocious GENIUS?!?… Has the universe gone mad?

Cold Grey Dawn Open Thread:  At Least SBF Is Having A *Really* Bad Week...

Cold Grey Dawn Open Thread: At Least SBF Is Having A *Really* Bad Week…Post + Comments (90)

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