We Witness the World’s Determination Opening New Prospects for Restoring Our Security — the Address by the President

18 June 2024 – 20:56

Dear Ukrainians!

Today, first and foremost, I want to give special recognition to our warriors. All those who succeeded in turning this page of the war — a page that Putin was eager to dedicate to his offensive and which became yet another mistake for Russia. Everyone who is defending the Kharkiv direction, who is restraining the Russian attacks in the Pokrovsk and other Donetsk directions, and along the entire frontline — from Krynky to Vovchansk, and also along the border, including in the Sumy region. It is Ukrainian courage and resilience that determine the situation — it is what we can do, not what Russia wants or has tried to do. This is another significant result of Ukraine, of our people in this war, and I thank everyone who is truly fulfilling combat orders and performing combat missions to the fullest. I thank all those who are personally bearing the brunt of repelling Russian attacks. I thank everyone who has helped and continues to help.

We witness the world’s determination opening new prospects for restoring our security. Among other things, this includes the security of Kharkiv. The destruction of Russian terrorists’ positions and launchers by our forces, our warriors, near the border really matters. It is working. Exactly as we expected. And based on the results of the battles right now — in June — on different parts of the front, I would like to thank all our soldiers, sergeants and officers of the 1st separate assault battalion, the 5th separate assault brigade, the 25th separate airborne brigade, the 35th, 36th and 38th separate marine brigades. You all did a great job, warriors! The 44th artillery brigade, the 48th mechanized brigade, the 57th separate motorized infantry brigade, the 71st jaeger brigade, the 82nd airborne assault brigade, the 108th territorial defense brigade, and the 110th separate mechanized brigade. Thank you! And to all those who stand with you. Who helps, who supports, who treats the wounded, who volunteers. Who recruits and trains soldiers. Thank you! Together, Ukrainians are changing history in their favor.

Today, we also continued to prepare our next external steps, in particular, the activities between the First and Second Peace Summits. I held a meeting with international experts to appoint those responsible for regions and parts of the world in order to involve even more participants in joint work on the points of the Peace Formula. We are gradually proceeding to the formation of groups that will work on specific steps to restore security. Just like the First Peace Summit held in Switzerland, the groups should be as inclusive as possible so that different countries and leaders can express themselves. And, of course, we continue to work on the support of the communiqué of the First Summit. I am grateful to His All Holiness Patriarch Bartholomew for joining the communiqué and for his unwavering support of our peacemaking efforts. There will be more similar news — more new signatories to the communiqué. Our team is working on it.

And one more thing.

The meeting with the Speaker of the Seimas of Lithuania, her visit to Ukraine today. We greatly appreciate Lithuania’s support, our relations, and in general, the ties of Ukraine and Ukrainians with Lithuanian society, and with the Baltic region as a whole. We can only have common security — of our states, of our peoples, of our independence. Thank you for understanding this. Gitanas, thank you! I thank the Lithuanian Parliament and the Government. All those whose hearts are with us, with our people.

We must expel the occupier.

Glory to Ukraine!

The Guardian reports on Ukraine’s ethnic Vietnamese community.

On Ukraine’s Vietnamese minority, many of whom have stayed during the war and some of whom are fighting.
The community has a decades-long history (Vietnam’s richest person made his first money in Kharkiv in the 1990s…)https://t.co/ziDFtsiw6L

— Shaun Walker (@shaunwalker7) June 18, 2024

When Russia invaded Ukraine two years ago, Tung Nguyen drove his parents from their home, in the city of Chernihiv, to the border with Poland. Then, he returned to Kyiv and began to volunteer, bringing food and medicines to under-siege Chernihiv. Before long, he had decided to sign up and fight in the Ukrainian army.

Nguyen is part of Ukraine’s Vietnamese community, a sizeable but often hidden minority in the country. Some Vietnamese people left Ukraine after the Russian invasion, but others have stayed, particularly those from the younger generation, many of whom were born in Ukraine and are Ukrainian citizens.

Nguyen was raised in Hanoi by his grandparents, but he came to join his parents in Chernihiv when he was 18. He studied in Kyiv, learned Russian, and began working as a fitness trainer and bodybuilder. In 2019, he won the all-Ukraine championship, and was given citizenship so he could compete for the country on the international arena.

“Ukraine gave me a lot – I studied here, worked here, I married a Ukrainian. I can’t even say it’s my second homeland at this point, it’s just my homeland,” he said, in a Skype interview from his location at an army base.

Last May, he was wounded during the Ukrainian retreat from Bakhmut, while retrieving wounded comrades from close to the frontline under cover of night. Incoming artillery left him with cuts and severe internal bleeding, and he ended up spending a month in hospital. He returned to the front and was wounded again in December, requiring another two months of recovery. Now, he is back fighting again.

The two years of full-scale war has seen Ukrainians from across the country come together in the face of the Russian threat, and the country’s Vietnamese community is no exception. At least one Ukrainian soldier of Vietnamese origin has already been killed in the war, and Nguyen said the community rallied in solidarity when he was wounded.

“Before the start of full-scale war, I didn’t know many Vietnamese people, but now they support me a lot. Lots of Vietnamese people wrote me messages of support, people brought food to the hospital,” Nguyen said.

Vietnamese people began coming to the Soviet Union in the 1950s to study, usually for technical professions. Pham Nhat Vuong, now the richest man in Vietnam, made his first money while living in Kharkiv in the early 1990s, setting up the Mivina brand of instant noodles, which became a hit with Ukrainians during the lean post-communist years. Numerous Vietnamese politicians are alumni of Ukrainian universities. Later, in the 1990s, many more came to work as small traders to both Russia and Ukraine, including Nguyen’s parents, who settled in Chernihiv in the early 1990s.

Prior to the full-scale Russian invasion, the Vietnamese community numbered about 100,000 people, according to Serhiy Chervanchuk, executive director of the Ukraine-Vietnam Association in Kyiv.

One of the largest Vietnamese communities in the country is in Kharkiv. Vietnamese traders dominate Barabashovo, the sprawling market on the eastern side of the city, which prior to the war was one of Europe’s largest markets, and there is even a Buddhist temple used by the community, though the monks left after the outbreak of war.

Many Vietnamese traders at Barabashovo, which has been hit by Russian strikes several times and is now working at a fraction of its former capacity, said they had left Ukraine at the start of the war but later returned.

“There aren’t many customers now, it’s a lot worse, but this is home and I don’t plan to leave again,” said one trader, drinking tea on a recent rainy morning, who gave his name as Dima. Most Vietnamese people at the market use Ukrainianised version of their names.

More at the link!

The Wall Street Journal has uncovered a new Russian illegals operation in Slovenia. From Archive.Today because WSJ is paywalled.

LJUBLJANA, Slovenia—The young Argentine couple in the pastel-colored house lived a seemingly ordinary suburban life, driving around this sleepy European capital in a white Kia Ceed sedan, always paying their taxes on time and never so much as getting a parking ticket.

Maria Rosa Mayer Muños ran an online art gallery, telling acquaintances she’d left Argentina after being robbed in Buenos Aires by an armed gang at a red light. Her husband, Ludwig Gisch, ran an IT startup.

Described by neighbors in their middle-class district of Črnuče as “normal” and “quiet,” the husband and wife appeared to be global citizens: switching from English and German with friends to accentless Spanish with their son and daughter, who attended the British International School.

Yet almost everything about the family from number 35 Primožičeva street was a carefully constructed lie, according to Slovenian and Western intelligence officials. Gisch’s real name is Artem Viktorovich Dultsev, born in the Russian autonomous republic of Bashkortostan and an elite officer in Russia’s foreign intelligence service, the SVR, according to the officials and court documents.

Mayer Muños is Anna Valerevna Dultseva, a more senior SVR officer than her partner, from Nizhny Novgorod. The couple’s computers contained hardware to communicate securely to handlers in Moscow that was so encrypted neither Slovenian nor U.S. technicians could crack it. In a secret compartment inside their refrigerator, they kept hundreds of thousands of euros in crisp bank notes.

Now, a classified trial is expected to deliver its first judgment in the coming weeks on the couple charged with conducting espionage as “illegals,” or deep-penetration agents—two crucial cogs in Vladimir Putin’s fast-expanding shadow war with the West.

Officials say that before they were arrested in December 2022, the pair used Slovenia, a North Atlantic Treaty Organization and European Union member state of just two million people, as a base to travel to nearby Italy, Croatia and across Europe to pay sources and communicate orders from Moscow. The bucolic Alpine country of lakes and mountains—and birthplace of Melania Trump—was a perfect choice to conduct operations, with visa-free access across much of Europe and a limited counterintelligence capacity. They had even trained their two young children, Slovenian officials say, telling them that one day their mom and dad may be captured.

Shortly after Mayer Muños and Gisch were arrested in a dawn raid by Slovenia’s security services, another pair of suspected Russian illegals—a woman and man carrying Greek and Brazilian passports—abruptly left their lives in Athens and Rio de Janeiro, abandoning businesses and romantic partners who had no idea of their real identity.

The pair carried passports identifying them as Maria Tsalla and Ludwig Campos Wittich. In fact, they were married Russian intelligence officers still building out their legend—a spy’s fake background story—separately in Greece and Brazil, a process Western intelligence agencies estimate costs millions of dollars per person. They were called back to Moscow by handlers fearing the collapse of a network after the Slovenia arrests, officials said.

Other suspected Russian illegals have been exposed across Europe since the Ukraine invasion, from the Netherlands and Norway to the Czech Republic and Bulgaria—the biggest unmasking of deep-penetration agents since the FBI’s 2010 “Operation Ghost Stories” that nabbed 10 Russian spies in America.

Now locked in a Slovenian prison, their children housed with a foster family, the faux-Argentine couple is also a possible component in any prisoner swaps agreed with Russia, including those that may involve jailed Americans Paul Whelan and Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, according to senior Slovenian and U.S. officials. The Kremlin has already expressed interest in getting them back in talks handled by Putin’s longtime close ally, Nikolai Patrushev, according to people familiar with the situation.
Neither the Kremlin nor the SVR responded to requests for comment.

The case—being investigated by Slovenian and Western officials at the highest levels of secrecy, with the court proceedings and all materials highly classified—reveals a rare insight into one of the most secretive and prized parts of Russia’s spy machine.

Unlike most spies, illegals don’t pose as diplomats but usually as people unconnected to Russia. They spend years burrowing themselves deep into their target region, creating a spider web of information sources, identifying candidates for recruitment—“talent spotting”—and taking on assignments as a cutout for spies under diplomatic cover, who tend to be under close surveillance by their host countries.

NATO secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg said on Thursday that plans were being drawn up to tighten restrictions on the movement of Russian intelligence personnel in Europe.

“Illegals are again growing in significance for Moscow, especially as the line between espionage and war is becoming almost nonexistent,” said Andrei Soldatov, a Russian security expert who has spent years studying Moscow’s spy networks.

Slovenian officials said that they suspect that an unusual influx of Russian students enrolling in the country’s universities in the past two years, many of whom are in their 40s and 50s, could be cover for more Russian agents. In March, the government deported at least eight Russian students for disseminating pro-Kremlin propaganda and impersonating Slovenians online, according to Slovenian security officials.

The same month a Russian military attaché Sergei Lemeshev was declared persona non grata after he was discovered running a disinformation operation that involved paying “hundreds of sources” to publish pro-Moscow talking points.

To untangle the truth about the quiet couple who immersed themselves in new roles as an ordinary expat family while leading double lives as Russian spies, the Journal talked to their friends and neighbors; Slovenian, Western and Latin American officials; and reviewed hundreds of sealed documents, including birth and marriage certificates, flight records, Interpol notices and Argentine court records. Along the way reporters found a complex web of lies, from fraudulent documents to the theft of an identity of an infant who died in a small Greek village more than 30 years ago.

“We know they were important, serious agents,” said Vojko Volk, Slovenia’s state secretary for international affairs and national and international security. “It’s like ‘The Americans,’ except in Slovenia.”

Shortly after the arrest, Russia established contact, acknowledging the couple worked for the SVR and saying it wanted them back. Slovenia was eager to quickly trade and to avoid antagonizing the Kremlin, but a deal couldn’t be reached. Slovenian officials had “prayed to get rid of them,” one senior official said.

Mayer Muños and Gisch refused to talk, but Slovenia and its allies were learning more about their activities and other potentially connected agents. When Maria Tsalla fled Greece shortly after the arrests, Greek authorities discovered she had registered her birth on the island of Evia, claiming the identity of an infant who was listed as dying in 1991. Authorities could see the handwritten registry had been altered—a clue to her deception—and that Tsalla had been trying to replace it with a new registration in the Athens suburb of Marousi, one of the first municipalities to digitize records.

Tsalla left behind a boyfriend in Athens who allegedly had no idea she wasn’t from Greece. Greek authorities discovered she was in fact married to another Russian illegal, Campos Wittich, who had lived for some two years in Rio de Janeiro with his Brazilian girlfriend—a veterinarian who worked for the country’s ministry of agriculture. She helped coordinate the social media search for him when he disappeared—only to learn that he was working undercover for Russian intelligence.

Gisch and Mayer Muños have now served more than 18 months in a Slovenian prison. Slovenia’s espionage laws allow for a maximum eight-year sentence, and officials say the couple could be freed after four for good behavior.

“They were long-term illegals,” said Janez Stusek, SOVA chief until the middle of 2022, several months before the couple’s arrest. “They had a long-term mission trying to infiltrate Slovenia as an entering point into Europe.”

On 35 Primožičeva street, a new couple has moved in. Two bikes are parked on the porch and two children’s badminton rackets are hung on the veranda. Efforts to reach them were unsuccessful, and the owners of the house declined to comment. The new couple, officials and neighbors said, are also Russian.

There is more at the link.

This is all part of Russia’s political warfare and subversion campaigns. Two years ago Bellingcat exposed a similar Russian illegal who had ingratiated herself with senior US and NATO officers in Italy.

NATO, Holland, and Hungary:

“Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte has promised to give Hungary’s Viktor Orbán an opt-out of Nato activities supporting Ukraine if he is made secretary-general of the military alliance, in a pledge aimed at securing Budapest’s support” https://t.co/2zoQDgKY06

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) June 18, 2024

The Financial Times has the details:

Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has backed Mark Rutte as the next secretary-general of Nato after the Dutch leader promised to allow Budapest to opt out of the military alliance’s activities supporting Ukraine.

The deal with Orbán, which was first reported by the Financial Times, comes after months in which the Hungarian PM refused to endorse Rutte, irritating the US and other leading Nato allies such as the UK, France and Germany, who have openly backed the Dutchman for months.

Romania, whose own president Klaus Iohannis launched a rival bid to Rutte, is now the last country to hold out, though it is widely expected to fall in line imminently. The US has made clear it expects to reach unanimous support for the Dutch prime minister by the time of the Nato’s leaders’ summit in Washington next month.

Rutte and Orbán, who have clashed several times in the past and have a strained personal relationship, met on the sidelines of an EU leaders’ dinner in Brussels on Monday night, where the FT reported that the Dutchman had made a deal with the Hungarian leader to secure his support.

Orbán confirmed that deal on Tuesday, saying in a statement that Rutte had pledged that under his tenure “no Hungarian personnel will take part in the activities of Nato in Ukraine and no Hungarian funds will be used to support them”.

“In light of his pledge, Hungary is ready to support PM Rutte’s bid for Nato secretary-general,” Orban added. Slovakia, which had also been holding back its endorsement of Rutte, also said on Tuesday it would support him.

Orbán, the alliance’s most pro-Russian member, has long argued against western support for Ukraine as Kyiv seeks to defend itself against Russia’s full-scale invasion.

A spokesperson for Rutte said he and Orbán had a “good conversation” and that Rutte had promised to maintain a commitment made by outgoing secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg last week.

Stoltenberg told Orbán that Hungary could opt out of Nato activities to support Ukraine, such as a plan for the alliance to take more control of military supplies to Kyiv and the training of Ukrainian troops, as well as long-term financial support.

“I think that’s a good solution that will enable us to move forward on more support for Ukraine within the Nato framework without Hungary blocking,” Stoltenberg said at the time.

In the meeting between Rutte and Orbán, which took place as the EU’s 27 leaders discussed who would fill the bloc’s top jobs for the next five years, the Dutch prime minister did not apologise for past remarks about Orbán at Brussels summits, said one of the people briefed on the discussions.

More at the link!

Saltivka, Kharkiv Oblast:

If you’re wondering how Saltivka is doing these days—people hope for the day when their phones stop beeping with air raid alerts every hour, kids won’t have to hide in corridors, and families torn apart by Russia’s war can reunite. Truly yours, from Kharkiv 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/sckte1ad75

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) June 18, 2024

Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast:

Ukrainian Marine Kriegforscher has a new assessment of the situation in Vovchansk. First tweet from the thread and the rest from the Thread Reader App:

The only thing I can say about the battle for Vovchansk — that’s only the beginning.

I think we have here a new «record» — 13 guided bombs (KAB) for one hour.

It’s hard for them right now to stop our advance and they are deploying new forces. About that and more below🧵 pic.twitter.com/F7Oum2OcjL

— Kriegsforscher (@OSINTua) June 18, 2024

Frankly speaking, the only reason I a writing this it’s Russian guided bombs.

Pain in the ass.Yesterday from 21:00 to 22:00 they dropped 13 bombs. And from 22 to 23 6 more bombs.

If U are asking yourself whether it’s a lot or not — it’s huge. 

This thread will be short and kinda more technical then the previous ones.

1) Russians are using only infantry without armed vehicles. Only a couple of tanks and AFV were destroyed here.

My company destroyed 2/5 BMP. Yes, I am showing off.

These were destroyed by 82 brigade.

Another one damaged and abandoned BMP-2. Folks from my company used 4 FPVs against it.

Their choice to use infantry without armour is strange but was «predicted» by me. And because of that they have big losses in infantry.

30 mech.regiment operates here and this new regiment👇

Has armed vehicles (not BMPs) which are perfect for fighting in the city (at least for evacuation). But they don’t do this.

2) RUAF uses UAV as much as they can. Every hour (even at night) they use 8-12 Orlans, SuperCam and Zak’s UAVs. 

3) They started using more helicopters.

Since the beginning of the operation they almost haven’t done it but right the number is increasing.

Destroyed Russian UR-77.

4) They are preparing new forces for future advance. For example, 22 regiment of 72 division (newly created) is going to receive BMP-3, BMP-1AM and BMP-2 (in general ~ 60 AFV) and waiting to be deployed at the battlefield. 

5) As I said a lot of times ago they are still trying to dig and build a new defence line at newly occupied territory.

Fortunately, they fail to do it.

6) As I said, for 5 weeks they have lost 5 BMPs and instead of mechanised columns charges I see how they use infantry.

A couple of days ago they used 17 paratroopers from the 83 brigade. With the help of 82 mortar 4 were KIA and 10 WIA. 

7) I also was surprised to found out that they almost do not fire from the closed firing positions with their tanks because…their tankers don’t know how to do that.

It’s a very big contrast with Donetsk oblast.

Damaged and abandoned MTLB in Russia.

8) They are trying to use more fresh forces from different parts of the front:

– assault battalion from the 155 mar.brigade (South of D oblast);

– marine battalion from the 810 mar.brigade (Z oblast);

– BTGr (the 1st one since 2022) of 9 mech.brigade (South of D oblast) 

What is also interesting. Firstly they deployed one assault battalion from the 83 brigade. It suffered losses and they deployed the rest of the brigade.

This BTGr from the 9 brigade consists of 3 mech.companies, 3 assault companies and 2 assault companies (prisoners). 

And it’s only about Vovchansk area where 116 brigade of their National guard and newly created 128 mech.brigade are deployed. Near Lyptsi the situation even more interesting.

As I said, we destroyed two BMPs. With the help of mining. And I will show U how we did it👇

To be more effective we need your help, folks!

As usual our unit (I assure U that not only ours) needs some stuff:

– Bluetti AC200MAX 2048Wh;
– 4 antennas;
– 10 GPS trackers

In general: 2500$

Our PP: [email protected] 

900/2500$

That’s a good start, thanks everyone who donates.

Also very thankful for everyone who shares it shows me that U are interested. Still interested. That’s amazing.

Thank you, folks.

Let’s finish it🤝 And for better inspiration another fresh digger👌

Vasylivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

Strikes on Russian targets in Vasylivka, Zaporizhzhia region.
(47.4417339, 35.2855888) pic.twitter.com/AhnzhUp5Rl

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 18, 2024

Pyongyang and Moscow:

Putin is expected to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang today. https://t.co/r8sEFPeKzy

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) June 18, 2024

Putin arrives in Pyongyang. I believe he quite likes it here. He would also fancy Russia being a country like North Korea, and has a few things to learn from his counterpart. pic.twitter.com/l2qXPDrub0

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) June 18, 2024

The Russian president arrived in Pyongyang for his first visit in 24 years and is expected to sign a new strategic partnership with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un during his stay. https://t.co/fLXf1dwjNc pic.twitter.com/Foi7trFPkv

— Financial Times (@FT) June 18, 2024

From The Financial Times:

Russian President Vladimir Putin has pledged to co-operate with North Korea to strengthen both regimes’ resistance to western sanctions.

Putin, who arrived in Pyongyang in the early hours of Wednesday for what is his first visit in 24 years, is expected to sign a new strategic partnership with Kim Jong Un during his stay.

In an article published in North Korean state newspaper Rodong Sinmun ahead of his arrival, Putin said Moscow would seek to work closely with Pyongyang to resist western pressure over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile programme.

“We will develop alternative mechanisms of trade and mutual settlements that are not controlled by the west and jointly resist illegitimate unilateral restrictions,” Putin wrote, adding that the countries would “build an architecture of equal and indivisible security in Eurasia”.

He also thanked North Korea for its support for Moscow in the war in Ukraine and pledged to back Pyongyang in the face of “US pressure, blackmail and military threats”.

North Korea on Tuesday reaffirmed its support for Russia’s invasion, which Kim has called a “sacred war”.

Putin’s visit, which the Kremlin said would include a concert in his honour, comes as concerns grow in the west about deepening trade and military co-operation between Moscow and Pyongyang.

The Financial Times reported in March that Russia was supplying oil and petroleum products to North Korea in an apparent exchange for ballistic missiles and artillery shells to be used on the battlefield in Ukraine.

US state department spokesperson Matthew Miller on Monday said North Korea had supplied Russia with “dozens of ballistic missiles and over 11,000 containers of munitions”. Moscow and Pyongyang have denied arms transfers.

Russia also blocked the renewal of a UN panel that monitors compliance with Security Council sanctions against North Korea, resulting in that body’s dissolution.

Kim met Putin for the first time in four years in September in Russia’s Far East, where he toured the Vostochny Cosmodrome, Moscow’s most advanced space rocket launch site. Kim also extended an invitation to Russia’s leader to make a reciprocal trip.

Putin and Kim are expected to sign a strategic partnership agreement that Kremlin foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov said was “driven by the profound evolution of the geopolitical situation in the world and the region”.

Ushakov told reporters on Monday that the agreement would reflect “what has happened between our countries in recent years in international politics, economics and ties across the board, including security issues”, according to Interfax.

The Russian delegation includes new defence minister Andrei Belousov, as well as Denis Manturov, top deputy prime minister overseeing the defence sector, and Alexander Novak, Moscow’s most senior energy official.

The warming ties have also raised fears in the west of Russia supplying technical assistance or military technology transfers to North Korea. Two months after Kim’s visit to Russia, North Korea claimed its first successful launch of a military spy satellite. Yuri Borisov, the head of Russia’s space agency, is also accompanying Putin to Pyongyang.

The visit comes amid recent tensions on the Korean peninsula, after both countries scrapped a 2018 military accord aimed at reducing hostilities along their shared border.

More at the link!

Victor Cha, the Senior Vice President for Asia and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has some thoughts on this:

The summit meeting between Russian president Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un presents the greatest threat to U.S. national security since the Korean War. This relationship, deep in history and reinvigorated by the war in Ukraine, undermines the security of Europe, Asia, and the U.S. homeland. Amid front-burner issues like the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, the administration relegates this problem to the back burner at its own peril.

What started out as a small arms sale by North Korea to the Wagner Group in November 2022 has recently been acknowledged by Secretary of State Antony Blinken as a “matter of deep concern” over the North’s provision of 5 million rounds of ammunition and scores of ballistic missiles. As the summit suggested, Kim is likely to fuel Russian war stocks indefinitely. Of pressing concern, however, is what Putin is giving in return. It is highly unlikely that Kim would have feted Putin so lavishly only for the promise of food and fuel. That may have been the gift when Kim visited Russia in September 2023, direly needed at the time as his country was just emerging from a three-plus year Covid lockdown. But Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines laid down a significant marker in March 2024 when she said Moscow may be dropping long-held nonproliferation norms in its dealings with North Korea.

Kim wants advanced telemetry, nuclear submarine technology, military satellite wares, and advanced intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) technology. Putin needs Kim’s weapons to make up for a monthly munitions shortfall of 50,000 rounds (even if Russia is producing ammunition at full capacity) in his pursuit of victory in Ukraine. A gaggle of Russian scientists were in North Korea prior to this month’s military satellite launch. Kim has also been expressing satisfaction with his nuclear submarine plans, which is a very bad sign. This aspect of the relationship not only destabilizes security on the peninsula and in Asia; it also heightens the direct threat posed by North Korea to the homeland. ICBMs with advanced countermeasure technology, overhead reconnaissance capabilities, and nuclear submarines would allow Kim to target the entirety of the United States with a nuclear force that Washington would have difficulty taking out in a preemptive first strike.

In fairness, the Biden administration has called out the problem. It has declassified satellite imagery and other intelligence, providing glimpses of these ties. Biden has advanced an unprecedented battery of new defense exercises with Japan and South Korea that enhances deterrence and makes the three allies stronger. Nonetheless, Kim is on pace to conduct more military provocations this election year than ever before (surpassing 2022’s record of 48 provocations).

It is on the diplomatic front where fault can be found. Biden is on autopilot when it comes to North Korea, recycling talking points on denuclearization circa the Obama administration. Most experts think North Korea has at least 50 nuclear bombs now. Pyongyang has spurned over 20 private attempts by the administration to restart talks. It has even thrown letters back in the face of engagement-oriented U.S. diplomats.

The administration should shelve denuclearization and prioritize policies to disrupt the arms trade between Russia and North Korea.

This is not an easy task. First, the routes used to transport North Korean arms to Russia run deep in the latter’s territory, making military interceptions of munitions cargo, whether by boat or rail, dangerously escalatory; Biden does not need a third war on his watch. Second, Russia’s veto in March 2024 to reauthorize a UN watchdog body on North Korean proliferation is aimed at dismantling the entire UN sanctions regime toward Pyongyang.

Nonetheless, the toolkit is not completely bare. The United States should mobilize Europeans at G7 and NATO conferences this summer to apply economic and diplomatic pressure on Pyongyang. While the United States does not have diplomatic relations with Pyongyang, most European governments do, and North Korea has traditionally seen Europe as its gateway to the West. As a first step, actions like those taken at the G7 summit last week against Russian and North Korean financial assets should be expanded in the name of disrupting the weapons trade.

Putin and Kim may feel that they have a match made in heaven. The former is getting what he needs for the war while complicating Biden’s security policies in Asia. The latter, with Russian sustenance, is able to wait out Biden while advancing and modernizing their nuclear force. Biden should take the offensive. While these recommended half measures will not solve the problem, they are better than the administration recycling standard talking points.

More at the link!

Azov, Rostov Oblast, Russia:

/2. Satellite imagery of the result of the drive strike on Russian oil depot in Azov, Rostov region. https://t.co/k2kyh7jska pic.twitter.com/IvHLkan0Px

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 18, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

First, some adjacent material from the Ukrainian MOD:

Love will win

📷: 117th Mechanized Brigade pic.twitter.com/WVgPBEPHiH

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 18, 2024

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:

@patron__dsns

Мене обрала якась гігантська палочка…🫨 #песпатрон

♬ Паличка сама обирає – Dashanirvana

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

I was chosen by some giant stick… 🫨 #песпатрон

Open thread!