Open Threads

Lithuania:

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1778384007866028307

Estonia:

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1778480625441263734

Dear @KajaKallas, you are correct to draw such parallels. This is the most responsible moment in European history this century. If Ukraine’s partners act decisively, I am confident that we can defeat Russian terror before it spreads further. Thank you for all of your efforts to rally support for Ukraine and all of our Europe.

Poland:

https://twitter.com/IsaCNN/status/1778527156823593018

https://twitter.com/natemook/status/1778368027588706482

The US:

https://twitter.com/john_sipher/status/1778486942755090686

John Sipher is the former Chief of Moscow Station. He is also correct.

GEN Cavoli, Commanding General of US European Command (EUCOM) and Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee. Here’s the link to the transcript of his prepared remarks. Here’s the link to the video of the hearing. I want to highlight this portion of GEN Cavoli’s prepared testimony via Giorgi Revishvilli and the Thread Reader App:

Very insightful points from General Cavoli’s statement today:
– Ukraine cannot sustain this fight alone. The United States, our allies, and partners must continue to provide Ukraine with munitions, weapons, and materiel. 1/14

On Russia:
Russia relies on the mass and quantity available to a large country, and despite its military’s evident deficiencies and dysfunctions, continues to pose an existential threat to Ukraine. 2/14

During this conflict Russia’s strategic forces, long range aviation, cyber capabilities, space capabilities, and capabilities in the electromagnetic spectrum have lost no capacity at all. The air force has lost some aircraft, but only about 10% of their fleet. 3/14

The navy has suffered significantly in the Black Sea – but nowhere else and Russian naval activity worldwide is at a significant peak. 4/14

Russia has suffered, losing over 2,000 tanks and 315,000 soldiers wounded or dead. However, Russia is reconstituting that force far faster than our initial estimates suggested. 5/14

The army is actually now larger – by 15 percent – than it was when it invaded Ukraine. Over the past year, Russia increased its front line troop strength from 360,000 to 65 470,000. 6/14

Regardless of the outcome of the war in 94 Ukraine, Russia will be larger, more lethal, and angrier with the West than when it invaded. 7/14

On Russia, PRC, DPRK and Iran:
This [Russia, PRC, DPRK and Iran] block of adversaries is more cohesive and dangerous than any threat the United States has faced in decades. 8/14

The PRC, Iran, and DPRK are sustaining Russia’s economy and enabling it to continue its aggression in Ukraine. This new axis of adversaries will create strategic dilemmas within an increasingly challenging international security environment. 9/14

As of March 2024, the DPRK provided Russia with roughly 6,700 containers that could contain up to three million artillery shells. Iran has provided Russia with drones, artillery, and missiles that have enhanced Russia’s lethality in Ukraine. 10/14

This new axis of adversaries will create strategic dilemmas within an 107 increasingly challenging international security environment. 11/14

On China:
Certainly, PRC is closely watching the conflict in Ukraine – learning military lessons, political lessons, and trying to project those onto China’s own interests. 12/14

Moreover, PRC’s increased support for Russia reveals the depths of the Chinese Communist Party’s commitment to partnerships that challenge our collective security. 13/14

The continued “No-Limits” partnership between PRC and 🇷🇺 positions PRC as a formidable adversary to European interests. This partnership is not just diplomatic; it extends to informational, economic, and military realms, aiding nations that exhibit hostility and aggression. 14/14

Source: armedservices.house.gov/sites/republic…

@threadreaderapp unroll

Additional points:

General Cavoli “They [Ukraine] are now being outshot by the Russian side 5-to-1. That will immediately go to 10-to-1 in a matter of weeks. We are not talking about months. We are not talking hypothetically” /

The situation is extremely serious. the biggest killer on the battlefield is artillery … and should Ukraine run out, they would run out because we stopped supplying.” /

If we do not continue to support Ukraine, Ukraine will run out of artillery shells and will run out of air defense interceptors in fairly short order. /

I can’t predict the future, but I can do simple math. Based on my experience in 37-plus years in the U.S. military, if one side can shoot and the other side can’t shoot back, the side that can’t shoot back loses. /

The U.S. provides the “lion’s share” of 155mm caliber artillery shells to Ukraine and is also the main supplier of the country’s ground-based air defense — “the most critical things on the battlefield. /

Russia’s frequent large-scale missile attacks on Ukraine are expected to become more devastating as Ukraine’s supply of interceptors for air defense dwindle. /

“Those attacks would absolutely cripple the economy and the civil society as well as the military of Ukraine if they were not defended against. Without U.S. provision of interceptors, that will happen.” end/

Don’t forget to subscribe to my Substack – Russia Analyzed – for the latest insights and analysis on Russian foreign and security policy and the war against Ukraine. cutt.ly/pw9h2qju

Japan:

https://twitter.com/Fritschner/status/1778446735645327697

Brussels:

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1778370017945411848

Michael Weiss bring us another assessment from Karl, the Estonian military analyst via the Thread Reader App:

It’s been a minute, but we have a new thread from “Karl,” the Estonian military analyst, on the war in Ukraine. With @holger_r: 

“Let’s start with the strategic view first. The U.S. has grown even more cautious and inept. Congress is exactly at the same place as the last time we spoke. For a brief moment, 1-2 weeks ago, it looked like they might be closer to a deal but today there is no certainty about it.” 

“The Republicans are still delaying. There’s no clarity about an aid package or a loan package or a combination of them. It’s the same as it was half a year ago. Ukraine has been losing territory on the eastern front unequivocally because of the stalled U.S. aid.” 

“On a positive side, the Czech ammunition initiative has brought considerable results and there is hope that first shipments will arrive on the frontline shortly. This is mainly artillery ammunition. Remarkably, the Czechs have managed to include aid from neutral or even Russia-friendly countries – India, Pakistan, even Serbia.” 

“The Macron initiative can also be regarded as positive from a strategic perspective. Estonia has historically been hesitant about the strategic autonomy concept and so far the French talk hasn’t included much military contribution. But insisting that France and other countries’ troops might be on Ukrainian territory even if only to train has really irritated Russia.” 

“If France really did it, the Baltic countries, probably Poland and Czechia, maybe the Nordic countries and the UK, would join in. This would be a nice coalition to train Ukrainian troops. It is not such a big step, actually, because, as has also been publicly stated, de facto the special ops are already there.” 

“France has always wanted to project a larger geopolitical role in relations to the U.S. than it has actually possessed. Now that the U.S. has left a vacuum, Macron sees an opportunity to take advantage of.” 

“This new France initiative has been weakened by direct condemnation from the U.S. and German leaders though. If we add the U.S.’ views about Ukraine hitting Russia’s oil and military targets, the American position has become embarrassing — especially considering that they can’t contribute anything to help Ukraine themselves.” 

“Does derives more from Biden’s team’s domestic considerations to keep the topic off of election discussions as rising oil prices wouldn’t not play well in elections? Is it a strategic fear or a combination, I can’t judge.” 

“On the frontlines Russian pressure is strong. Since we spoke last time Ukraine has lost Avdiivika, Russia has advanced north-west of Bakhmut, west of Avdiivka, at Pervomaisk and maybe also on the southern frontline. It has been on an operational level, but it is consistent and systematic.” 

“The reason is Ukraine’s lack of ammunition and weaponry to deter Russia’s planes. The Russian glide bombs just completely destroy Ukraine’s defense positions and there is no option but to retreat to new positions.” 

“Again, it is because of no U.S. aid package. The last U.S. package in March was $300 million. It was smaller than the aid that Denmark announced on the same day. Since then, nothing. It really makes itself felt on the frontlines.” 

“There is no reason to fear that Ukraine’s defense might collapse. It is not so tragic. Ukrainian top officers and people close to them are more optimistic than the West is. They say Ukraine might lose some ground in the next months but there is no fear of Russia breaking through the defense.” 

“But Russia will continue to progress primarily on the eastern front. There are also signs of very strong Russian pressure on areas that Ukraine won back last summer by Robotyne and Verbove.” 

“Ukrainian society has finally managed to deal with the change of the commander-in-chief. There were fears that it would divide the society more than it did. Ukrainian people understand that this is not a reason to break up their own society and they need to fight regardless of which personality they like more.” 

“The frequent missile and drone attacks on Kharkiv and Odessa are a concern. These are large, strategically and symbolically important cities. Russia’s goal is to make life as uncomfortable there as possible.” 

“This especially applies for Kharkiv where they haven’t been hitting anything else but residential areas over the last weeks. Kharkiv is also so close to the border that Ukraine’s air defense can’t do much against the S-300 missiles. Occasionally they also pound the city with glide bombs and drones.” 

“Russia also continues to destabilize Moldova. They have repeatedly claimed that Ukraine attacked targets in Transnistria. They are flying the leaders of the Gagauzia region to Moscow. The only aim is destabilization of the country ahead of the presidential elections in autumn. Currently Russia lacks the ability to intervene in Moldova militarily.” 

“Ukraine’s Rada will pass the new mobilization law any day now but the demobilization issues will be handled with separate acts. The troops who have been on the frontline for over 2 years have received some breaks but of course they want more. That said, the same situation is worse for Russian units.” 

“Russian bloggers wrote a few days ago that the new mobilization will be in May. Now they rephrased saying that it definitely will not be in May. The wording is important here. This suggests it can be in June or July.” 

“Considering their huge troop losses especially at Avdiivka they will need to announce a new mobilization wave. They can’t man their units gathering between 15-25k troops a month. I doubt they would be able to deploy more than that a month regardless of what they say themselves. Russia often knowingly ‘manufactures’ its success and tries to sell it to the West.” 

“Especially if Russia plans a large new offense, they will need mobilization. Right now they are not capable of attacking Kharkiv from two directions – from Kupyansk in the east and across the border from Belgorod – simultaneously as has been speculated.” 

“The so-called Russian volunteers operations in Belgorod, Kursk, Bryansk showed that Russia doesn’t have any serious units there. Otherwise the ‘volunteers’ wouldn’t have been able to go in and out for several weeks.” 

“Russia’s offense on the Kupyansk direction has also clearly stalled. The activity was much higher there still 1-2 months ago.” 

“Regarding Russia’s next large offensive, the more realistic direction would be to continue from the Donetsk direction. Putin’s first goal was to fully conquer Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. Russia has seen some success in 3 directions there: Avdiivika in the center, Bakhmut to the north and to the south in Pervomaisk.” 

“A logical next direction would be towards Chassiv Yar west of Bakhmut. It would open up directions towards Slovyansk and Kramatorsk which are the largest free cities in Donetsk oblast. Kramatorsk is also home to Ukraine’s eastern HQ.” 

“Ukraine’s air defense is weaker and since they don’t have F-16s, Russia can cause a lot of harm with the glide bombs. F-16s would bring at least a bit of relief to it because their operating radius is larger. When Russia can’t bring their bombers closer, their accuracy goes down. Already they have bombed occupied areas and Russia’s own territory.” /END 

DTEK Group Ukraine:

❗️russia launches missile and drone attacks against two DTEK power stations in #Ukraine
 
russia launched #missile and drone #attacks against two DTEK power stations early on Thursday, inflicting further serious damage on Ukraine’s thermal power generation facilities after… pic.twitter.com/1muqLlHvMi

— DTEK Group (@dtek_en) April 11, 2024

❗️russia launches missile and drone attacks against two DTEK power stations in #Ukraine

russia launched #missile and drone #attacks against two DTEK power stations early on Thursday, inflicting further serious damage on Ukraine’s thermal power generation facilities after multiple massive attacks in recent weeks.

There were no casualties among our workforce, however an initial assessment has shown that the assault caused serious damage to power station infrastructure.

DTEK teams are working intensively to repair and restore power as soon as possible.

Over the past three weeks, DTEK has suffered its worst attacks since russia’s full scale invasion in 2022 – on March 22 and then March 29 – destroying around 80% of its available capacity.

DTEK will continue to do everything possible to protect and preserve Ukraine’s civilian energy system from russia’s illegal aggression. Our thermal power plants have been shelled almost 170 times since February 2022 and we are appealing to governments and foreign partners for help sourcing power generation equipment.

#StandWithUkraine

Kyiv:

A message from #Kyiv regional utility CEO: You see it and sense it yourselves… Reduce power consumption between 7 pm-10 pm every day. For the rest of 2024. https://t.co/xZAWSCVUH6

— Roman Waschuk 🌻🍒🇨🇦🇺🇦 (@WaschukCanUA) April 11, 2024

Here’s the machine translation of Sergey Kovalenko’s original tweet:

Evening

Let’s do it. You saw and felt everything yourself. It can be evaluated in different ways. You and I can assess this only because of the presence of light in homes and on production sites.

What can we do now? Save consumption during peak hours. And if there are many of us, it will work. Ago. From 19 to 22 hours. Daily. Please save electricity. Daily. The whole year 2024. Let it become a habit.

Thank you! Everything will be fine

ps: make a repost and drop it in the chat rooms…

@YASN0_ua

Kharkiv:

Early this morning, russian forces struck Kharkiv with ten S-300 missiles. In the afternoon, they attacked the city again during the workday. Just imagine any European city with a population over a million in place of Kharkiv, where more than 5,000 buildings are destroyed.

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) April 11, 2024

The Kharkiv Oblast authorities have decided to mandate the evacuation of families with children from 47 settlements within the region that regularly face russian shelling. Yet, numerous residents remain in these areas, preferring to stay in their homes despite the risks.

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) April 11, 2024

Incredible work by the Food Train team and their special guests yesterday! 🚂🍲 https://t.co/VvqMsRDVky

— Nate Mook (@natemook) April 10, 2024

Ukrainian border guards destroyed a russian "Pole-21" electronic warfare system in the Kharkiv region.

📹: @DPSU_ua pic.twitter.com/gLrVFJBFnZ

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 11, 2024

The Zaporizhzhia front:

Russian assault group tried to attack Ukrainian positions on the 'Ural' truck. Zaporizhzhia front:

“ "Ural" and enemy infantry were destroyed on the Orikhiv direction.

Russians tried to assault the positions of the Ukrainian defenders on the URAL, while the truck was moving, a… pic.twitter.com/ygLbRcGj0o

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 11, 2024

Russian assault group tried to attack Ukrainian positions on the ‘Ural’ truck. Zaporizhzhia front:

“ “Ural” and enemy infantry were destroyed on the Orikhiv direction.

Russians tried to assault the positions of the Ukrainian defenders on the URAL, while the truck was moving, a mine blew up and the crew began to run away.

Next, the remaining enemy personnel were killed by drone operators with grenade drops, and the enemy’s transport was finally destroyed by the FPV drone strike.”

https://t.me/spartan_ngu/1459

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos, so here’s some adjacent material:

Another visit from our dearest friend @natemook pic.twitter.com/gf67ci9s6R

— Eugene Kibets (@eugenehmg) April 9, 2024

Caturday lunch in Kherson 😻 Denis filled up Hachiko feeders in his city between the air raid sirens. This homeless Ukrainian kitty was very hungry! pic.twitter.com/FxUVf5EnCU

— Nate Mook (@natemook) April 6, 2024

pic.twitter.com/CmFCiDrQEl

— Eugene Kibets (@eugenehmg) April 8, 2024

Open thread!