Balloon Juice - Open Threads Archives

Nothing Changes, Until It Does (Open Thread)

by WaterGirl| June 21, 202411:30 am| 73 Comments

This post is in: Biden Administration in Action, Open Threads, Politics

This is the Financial Times, so I can’t get to the whole article, but what I can see is very good news.

US to redirect Patriot air defence orders to Ukraine

Interceptor missiles destined for other countries will be diverted to help Kyiv protect cities and critical infrastructure.

Scoop: The US is set to halt all open orders for Patriot air defence systems & interceptor missiles until Ukraine has enough to defend itself from Russia’s air attacks. 3 people with knowledge of the decision said the move would be announced today. https://t.co/NF6sq6Vt94 v @FT

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) June 20, 2024

Update: (Washington Post) GIFT LINK (thanks Mr. Bemused Senior!)

The White House characterized the shift as a “difficult but necessary decision” as Ukraine’s military and civilian infrastructure face unrelenting Russian bombardment.

The United States will suspend the planned export of hundreds of air defense munitions to its allies and partners and redirect them to Ukraine, the White House said Thursday, as Russia continues its assault on the country’s power grid and other vital infrastructure.

Speaking to reporters, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby characterized the decision as “difficult but necessary,” and said it would affect deliveries of Patriot and NASAMS interceptor missiles, principally. Ukraine, he said, faces a “desperate” need.

BREAKING: Senator Mark Kelly says that if President Biden is reelected with a Democratic House and Senate, he will support ending the filibuster and codifying Roe v. Wade. Let’s go! pic.twitter.com/6dYGaqGATa

— Biden’s Wins (@BidensWins) May 5, 2024

Who knew 10 years ago that VoteVets would be one of our strongest allies?

🚨 U.S. Air Force Vet Jeff Bakke sounds the alarm! 🚨

Five high-ranking conservative military leaders who served under Trump warn he’s unfit to command. pic.twitter.com/sxDyv5iVJl

— VoteVets (@votevets) June 20, 2024

There’s no one who has a better feel for the actual state of the electorate over the past few years than @SimonWDC. I could listen to him all day. Always learn a lot. https://t.co/cNfY7G0YT0

— Stuart Stevens (@stuartpstevens) June 20, 2024

Open thread.

Nothing Changes, Until It Does (Open Thread)Post + Comments (73)

Supreme Court Decisions Again Today at 10 am Eastern

by WaterGirl| June 21, 20249:50 am| 80 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Politics, Supreme Court, Supreme Court Corruption

If you want to follow along on SCOTUSblog.

Here we go!

In Texas v. New Mexico, the court upholds the U.S.’s objections to a consent decree that would resolve the dispute over each state’s allocation of the waters of the Rio Grande.

RATING: ?

The court rules 6-3 in Department of State v. Munoz that a citizen does not have a fundamental liberty interest in her noncitizen spouse being admitted to the country.

RATING: Looks bad to me. Attorneys?

In Erlinger v. United States, the court rules that under the Armed Career Criminal Act, which imposes mandatory prison terms, a judge should use a preponderance-of-the-evidence standard to decide whether the offenses were committed on separate occasions or instead a jury must make those decisions unanimously and beyond a reasonable doubt.

RATING: ?

In Smith v. Arizona, the court rules for the state that the confrontation clause does not bar an expert to present an absent analyst’s true statements in support the expert’s opinion.

RATING: ?

The Supreme Court rejects the challenge to the constitutionality of a federal law that bans the possession of a gun by someone who has been the subject of a domestic violent restraining order in United States v. Rahimi.

RATING: Seems good to me. Attorneys?

Supreme Court Decisions Again Today at 10 am EasternPost + Comments (80)

TGIFriday Morning Open Thread: Something Attempted, Something Done

by Anne Laurie| June 21, 20248:05 am| 151 Comments

This post is in: Biden Administration in Action, Immigration, Open Threads

President Joe Biden ordered expansive action to allow certain U.S. citizens’ spouses without legal status a path to permanent residency, aiming to balance his recent aggressive crackdown on the southern border that enraged advocates and many Democratic lawmakers. pic.twitter.com/kHyuKWopD1

— The Associated Press (@AP) June 20, 2024

Today, on World Refugee Day, it's important to remember that Donald Trump tried to destroy the Refugee Program, and Joe Biden spent 4 years rebuilding it. Trump's actions led to record low admissions in FY20 and 21, while in FY24 we expect to see over 100k, the most in 3 decades.

— The Biden Accomplishments Guy (@What46HasDone) June 20, 2024

Border Patrol reports arrests are down 25% since Biden announced new asylum restrictions https://t.co/GiogL6z5vX

— The Associated Press (@AP) June 20, 2024

Under President Biden’s Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, our Administration implemented a rule to make clear that no gun show loophole exists and ensure fewer guns are sold without background checks. pic.twitter.com/MUrEHu63gv

— The White House (@WhiteHouse) June 20, 2024

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A federal appeals court has rejected Steve Bannon’s bid to delay the July 1 start of his criminal contempt-of-Congress prison sentence. https://t.co/RjViLJx67Q

— Kaitlan Collins (@kaitlancollins) June 21, 2024

A federal appeals court Thursday night rejected Steve Bannon’s bid to delay the July 1 start of his criminal contempt-of-Congress prison sentence.

Following the ruling from the US DC Circuit Court of Appeals, it is likely the former adviser to former President Donald Trump will seek the intervention of the Supreme Court…

A jury found Bannon guilty of contempt nearly two years ago for not complying with a House January 6 Committee subpoena for his testimony, but his trial judge initially paused his four-month prison sentence for his appeal to play out.

Earlier this month, however, US District Judge Carl Nichols lifted that hold on Bannon’s sentence at the request of the Justice Department, which pointed to a recent decision by the DC Circuit that upheld his conviction.

In recent days, Bannon has amped his rhetoric against the Justice Department, telling a conservative gathering in Detroit this month that they would “purge” the department and “take apart” the FBI if Trump won the election.

Absent a Supreme Court intervention, Bannon is slated to serve his sentence at a low-security prison camp in Danbury, Connecticut, CNN previously reported. Because he is facing New York state criminal charges for his involvement in an the allegedly fraudulent “Build the Wall” fundraising scheme, he will not be sent to the minimal-security prison camps known as a “Club Fed.” …

i don't want trump to bow out because he's a bad candidate and i want him to lose https://t.co/Xr1m833MK4

— in the pocket of Big Tenant (@AllezLesBoulez) June 20, 2024

Confirmation of yesterday’s speculation:

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. fails to qualify for CNN's debate. It'll be a showdown between Biden and Trump https://t.co/3jpqsP86rc

— The Associated Press (@AP) June 20, 2024

TGIFriday Morning Open Thread: Something Attempted, Something DonePost + Comments (151)

Late Night Open Thread: Do ‘We’ Need Social Media Warning Labels?

by Anne Laurie| June 20, 202410:33 pm| 81 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, social media

(Clay Bennett via GoComics.com)

The U.S. surgeon general has called on Congress to require warning labels on social media platforms similar to those now mandatory on cigarette boxes. pic.twitter.com/UZLEmkAbtV

— The Associated Press (@AP) June 17, 2024

Heard this story on the radio, then saw it on social media where people addicted to social media insist that no, social media is not, nay *cannot* be a problem.

[image or embed]

— The Fig Economy (@figgityfigs.bsky.social) Jun 17, 2024 at 8:33 PM

The guy behind the ‘Fig Economy’ label has, IIRC, five (pre-teen) kids. I’m aware that forbidding any form of pop-cult to children is a fool’s game (my mother had a blanket ban on comic books, 60 years ago, which didn’t keep me from becoming a teenage comix geek)… but I think the analogy with warning labels on cigarette packs is apt. Yes, we gave you an IPad to watch Bluey, kid, but TikTok and SnapChat are *not* without risks!

Per the Washington Post, “What research actually says about social media and kids’ health” [gift link]:

… [“>E]xperts — from leading psychologists to free speech advocates — have repeatedly called into question the idea that time on social media like TikTok, Instagram and Snapchat leads directly to poor mental health. The debate is nuanced, they say, and it’s too early to make sweeping statements about kids and social media.

Here’s what we do know about children and teens, social media apps and mental health.

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Why it’s hard to get a straight answer
There is evidence that adverse mental health symptoms among kids and teens have risen sharply, beginning during the global financial crisis in 2007 and skyrocketing at the beginning of the pandemic. But research into social media’s role has produced conflicting takeaways…

Vulnerable kids are more likely to struggle
Sometimes, social media appears to boost anxiety and depression. Other times, it appears to boost well-being and connectedness, according to a 2022 analysis of 226 studies.

So when we ask whether social media is a community hub for LGBTQ+ youths or a rabbit hole of warped information, the answer can be “both.” Bigger factors may be a teen’s existing vulnerabilities and what they’re actually doing on social media apps, American Psychological Association Chief Science Officer Mitchell Prinstein has said…

It’s not clear why social media might affect mental health
Social media leaves some people feeling bad, some studies suggest, but scientists still don’t understand why…

Social media companies design products to keep us scrolling…

In their own words: What young people wish they’d known about social media https://t.co/SI8Rd2Mqoh

— The Associated Press (@AP) June 17, 2024

… Kids constantly hear about the downsides of social media from the adults in their lives, often in the form of dire warnings and commands. But these adults did not grow up with social media themselves.

They didn’t get a phone handed to them as toddlers, just to keep them quiet in a restaurant. They didn’t join TikTok’s predecessor Musica.ly and do silly dances before they even learned to read. They didn’t have their schools shut down in a global pandemic, their connections to friends and peers relegated to phone and computer screens.

Kids coming of age with social media are forging ahead in a whole new world. And now that they are getting older, they have some advice for their younger peers.

You don’t have to share everything
“It’s so easy to look at your friends’ stories and feel this feeling of FOMO, of missing out and comparing yourself, like: ‘Oh, my friend just got a new car.’ It’s like this overwhelming sense of comparison. But the things that people post on social media, it’s just the highlight reel, like the 1% of their life that they want to showcase to other people.”
– BAO LE, 18, a freshman at Vanderbilt University

Don’t take it too seriously
“My main point of advice would be not to take it too seriously. Be yourself. I feel like what I was exposed to as a 12-year-old was much more limited than what is accessible to 12–year-olds nowadays. Younger kids want to be who they idolize. And when the TikTok stars or the social media stars are 20, 18, 16, they’re going to want to be like them. You’re getting younger kids that are now obsessing over products and brands, and it’s just getting really hard to be young. And it shouldn’t be really hard to be young. You should be enjoying childhood. And we shouldn’t be rushing to grow up. It’s OK to be 12. It’s OK to be young. It’s OK to enjoy childhood.”
– DOREEN MALATA, 22, a senior at the University of Maryland…

A lot of it is not real
“A lot of people make their life artificial so that they’re perceived in a certain way. And I think going into social media, I wish I knew it is a tool to learn from. There’s so much information, and you’re able to learn so much about different things. … I wish people had that outlook rather than the whole idea of other people viewing you and having to be seen a certain way.”
– NOUR MAHMOUD, 21, a junior at Virginia Commonwealth University…

Since the pandemic, teenagers are using social media more than ever – with the risk of mental health problems rising with their time online.

Many parents are trying to raise their children with restrictions or blanket bans. https://t.co/a1klSqTF00

— The Associated Press (@AP) June 17, 2024

Late Night Open Thread: Do ‘We’ Need Social Media Warning Labels?Post + Comments (81)

War for Ukraine Day 848: The Butcher’s Bill from Last Night’s/This Morning’s Russian Attack

by Adam L Silverman| June 20, 20248:25 pm| 26 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Quick housekeeping note: Rosie is still doing excellently with little to no side effects from this week’s chemo treatment. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

As I start tonight’s update – 7:40 PM EDT – all of eastern and southern Ukraine are under air raid alert. I haven’t seen anything about cruise missiles yet, but I’ll keep an eye out.

Here’s the butcher’s bill from Russia’s attack on Ukraine last night/this morning.

Russia hit Ukraine’s power infrastructure with a massive missile and drone attack, damaging facilities in four regions. Explosions reported in Dnipro region, thermal power plant seriously damaged. Russia’s trying to leave Ukraine without heating, employing gaps in air defense. pic.twitter.com/Qmd4oKXK8Y

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) June 20, 2024

Last night @KpsZSU shot down 5 missiles & 27 attack UAVs across Ukraine. The main focus of the strike was in the East, in particular in Dnipropetrovsʼk region. At least 4 people were killed & 15 others were injured due to the attacks. TPP was attacked for the seventh time in the… pic.twitter.com/d83IlE7Zxh

— Гюндуз Мамедов/Gyunduz Mamedov (@MamedovGyunduz) June 20, 2024

Last night @KpsZSU shot down 5 missiles & 27 attack UAVs across Ukraine. The main focus of the strike was in the East, in particular in Dnipropetrovsʼk region. At least 4 people were killed & 15 others were injured due to the attacks. TPP was attacked for the seventh time in the last 3 months: 3 workers were injured & the plantʼs equipment was seriously damaged. At least 60 private houses, a shopping center, a farm & construction equipment were destroyed.
#StopRussianAggression

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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The Life of Ukraine Must Be Preserved, Particularly in Terms of Energy Supply – Address by the President

20 June 2024 – 19:11

Dear Ukrainians!

Today, I held a meeting of the Staff that was dedicated primarily to protecting the energy sector from Russian attacks and protecting our people from the consequences of Russian energy terror.

A very specific task is to provide maximum support to people and communities and to do everything possible to prevent Russian terrorists from achieving their goals. The life of Ukraine must be preserved, particularly in terms of energy supply.

At the Staff meeting, there were reports from government officials, heads of energy companies, military personnel, and security sector leaders. Specific decisions were made.

First. The government has been tasked with immediately presenting a program to encourage the installation of solar generation and energy storage systems in Ukraine, a program that is as favorable as possible. It should be as easy to use as the “5-7-9” program, but with a zero percent annual interest rate in hryvnia for citizens.

Second. A clear plan for completing all protective structures for the energy sector, with a specific deadline for each facility. Executives at every level need to accelerate their efforts.

Third. All public and administrative buildings in the country, as well as all critical infrastructure facilities, need appropriate alternative energy sources. To this end, the Government, regional and local administrations, energy companies, and everyone else involved must work together to ensure that Ukraine enters the heating season prepared at the level of each community and our entire country.

Fourth. The state will continue to work on creating new energy generation and new decentralized energy capacities. Specific projects must be approved, and deadlines for each of them must be presented.

And fifth. The state must significantly intensify efforts to stimulate the construction of new balancing and maneuverable capacities for the energy sector. This process is quite challenging in wartime conditions, but we must implement it, just as we have already implemented many difficult projects.

Of course, there were reports and instructions at the Staff meeting today regarding the security component, namely the protection of energy facilities from Russian strikes and sabotage activities. Clear work is also being done in this regard. I am grateful to everyone in the Defense Forces, intelligence and Security Forces who protect our infrastructure and prevent the occupier from weakening Ukraine.

And a few more things.

I thank Romania for the decision to transfer the Patriot system to Ukraine – this is a truly powerful step. As a result, there will be greater security throughout our region, for all our neighbors. For Moldova, for the Baltic states, for Romania as well. We are now capable of defeating Russia’s imperial ambitions, and this will bring peace and confidence back to our entire Europe. We are now working with the team to secure the delivery of several more Patriots.

Today I would also like to thank the European Union for another step in the preparation of a new EU sanctions package. It is very important to keep up the pressure on Russia for this war and the violation of the rules-based international order.

In addition, we have another signatory to the Joint Communiqué of the first Peace Summit in Switzerland. Zambia has joined, increasing the representation of Africa among those who genuinely want to restore the full effectiveness of the UN Charter. There will be more accessions to the communiqué. Thank you to our team and everyone who helps!

Thank you to each and every one who stands with Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

Romania:

Romania will provide a Patriot system to Ukraine!

The Supreme Council of National Defense of Romania decided to donate a Patriot air defense system to Ukraine.
We are grateful to our Romanian friends for their unwavering support.

This decision will help protect the Ukrainian… pic.twitter.com/yTfEdl365j

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 20, 2024

Romania will provide a Patriot system to Ukraine!

The Supreme Council of National Defense of Romania decided to donate a Patriot air defense system to Ukraine.
We are grateful to our Romanian friends for their unwavering support.

This decision will help protect the Ukrainian people from russian terror. Together, we are stronger.
🇺🇦🤝🇷🇴

Related from the US:

White House confirms Ukraine will get priority on air defense missile deliveries over orders from other countries; Romania will transfer a Patriot air defense system to Ukraine; and more. https://t.co/0rdMMeyNaY

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) June 20, 2024

The Kyiv Independent has the details:

The U.S. is to prioritize deliveries of air defense missiles to Ukraine over orders from other countries, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said on June 20.

“The United States government has made the difficult but necessary decision to reprioritize near-term planned deliveries of foreign military sales to other countries, particularly Patriot and NASAMS missiles, to go to Ukraine instead,” he said in comments reported by AFP.

Comments from U.S. President Joe Biden earlier this month strongly suggested such a move was on the table.

“We let it be known to those countries that are expecting from us air defense systems in the future that they’re going to have to wait,” Biden said after signing a 10-year security deal with President Volodymyr Zelensky at the Group of Seven (G7) summit in Italy on June 13.

In a post on social media on June 20, Zelensky thanked President Biden for the latest decision.

“The partnership between Ukraine and the United States is strong and unwavering. Together, we are protecting life against terror and aggression,” he said.

I am deeply grateful to @POTUS and the United States for prioritising Ukraine in the delivery of air defenses that we critically need to defeat Russian attacks.

These additional air defense capabilities will protect Ukrainian cities and civilians. I thank President Biden for the…

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) June 20, 2024

I am deeply grateful to @POTUS and the United States for prioritising Ukraine in the delivery of air defenses that we critically need to defeat Russian attacks.

These additional air defense capabilities will protect Ukrainian cities and civilians. I thank President Biden for the essential support, which we discussed during our recent meeting in Italy.

The partnership between Ukraine and the United States is strong and unwavering. Together, we are protecting life against terror and aggression.

The US decision to prioritize Ukraine in the delivery of air defense interceptors is groundbreaking and deeply appreciated.

Two major decisions from Romania and the United States in just one day: on delivering the Patriot system and additional air defense missiles.

After months…

— Dmytro Kuleba (@DmytroKuleba) June 20, 2024

The US decision to prioritize Ukraine in the delivery of air defense interceptors is groundbreaking and deeply appreciated.

Two major decisions from Romania and the United States in just one day: on delivering the Patriot system and additional air defense missiles.

After months of hard work we are not going to stop here. There will be even more systems and missiles to defend Ukraine. Work is in progress.

I would like to specifically thank @SecBlinken for his dependable partnership in rallying the world and finding solutions with various partners to strengthen Ukraine’s defense.

Today’s message is crystal clear: our unity and resolve are rock solid.

Seoul:

South Korea blasts Russia-North Korea deal, says it will consider possible arms supplies to Ukraine https://t.co/bprlujn7uc

— The Associated Press (@AP) June 20, 2024

From the AP:

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — South Korea said Thursday that it would consider sending arms to Ukraine, a major policy change that was suggested after Russia and North Korea rattled the region and beyond by signing a pact to come to each other’s defense in the event of war.

The comments from a senior presidential official came hours after North Korea’s state media released the details of the agreement, which observers said could mark the strongest connection between Moscow and Pyongyang since the end of the Cold War. It comes at a time when Russia faces growing isolation over the war in Ukraine and both countries face escalating standoffs with the West.

Yoon’s national security adviser, Chang Ho-jin, said that Seoul would reconsider the issue of providing arms to Ukraine to help the country fight off Russia’s full-scale invasion.

South Korea, a growing arms exporter with a well-equipped military backed by the United States, has provided humanitarian aid and other support to Ukraine, while joining U.S.-led economic sanctions against Moscow. But it hasn’t directly provided arms to Kyiv, citing a longstanding policy of not supplying weapons to countries actively engaged in conflict.

Speaking to reporters in Hanoi, where he traveled after Pyongyang, Putin said Thursday that supplying weapons to Ukraine would be “a very big mistake” on South Korea’s part. If that happens, Putin said that it would lead to “decisions that are unlikely to please the current leadership of South Korea.”

He said that South Korea “shouldn’t worry” about the agreement, if Seoul isn’t planning any aggression against Pyongyang.

Asked whether Ukrainian strikes on Russian regions with Western-supplied weapons could be considered an act of aggression, Putin said that “it needs to be additionally studied, but it’s close to it,” and that Moscow isn’t ruling out supplying weapons to North Korea in response.

Lyptsy, Kharkiv Oblast:

If this is not a FREAKING MASSIVE WAKE UP CALL for finally doing everything possible and impossible to find a solution to the notorious UMPK problem, I don’t know what is. https://t.co/tak36iqdR8

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) June 20, 2024

Remember how we discussed Nova Poshta opening stores/outlets throughout the EU a few weeks back when Russia hit the main sorting facility in Ukraine? And that many of them had been vandalized? This strike is part of that campaign to target Nova Poshta inside and outside of Ukraine.

Speaking of vandalism, Kyiv:

The suspect has been arrested by the police.

I guess the violator who did that was simply mentally unstable. pic.twitter.com/tu39KmnToB

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) June 20, 2024

Here’s the full text of Ponomarenko’s first tweet:

Last night, someone vandalized the graves of our friends and heroic warfighters @_juicefighter_, @VovkyDaVinchi, and @vkrainets at Askoldova Mohyla memorial site in Kyiv.

It was apparently done by a female violator who is yet to be identified (and I’m sure we’ll know the name)… the police is investigating the crime.

Hopefully the Ukrainian authorities can get this woman the help she needs.

Vasylkiv:

Meet Serhii. He shot down a russian missile with a machine gun.

It happened on June 12, when his mobile fire group intercepted an enemy missile headed for the Kyiv region.

“We were informed that the target is close. A few seconds later, we saw an enemy missile heading towards… pic.twitter.com/EcIj6IM2k1

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 20, 2024

Meet Serhii. He shot down a russian missile with a machine gun.

It happened on June 12, when his mobile fire group intercepted an enemy missile headed for the Kyiv region.

“We were informed that the target is close. A few seconds later, we saw an enemy missile heading towards Vasylkiv. Without hesitation, I took a machine gun and opened fire on the target. There was only one thing on my mind: I had to shoot it down! After firing a round from the machine gun, I saw that the missile began to deviate from its course and descend,” Serhii recalls.

Serhii believed that the missile was shot down only when he saw its fragments with his own eyes.

📷: @KpsZSU

Kalynivka, Chasiv Yar front:

Yesterday Russians gathers forces to attack Ukrainian positions in Kalynivka, Chasiv Yar direction. On the video, a tank of the Defense Forces of Ukraine fires at Russian BMP.

Deepstate regarding Russian attack in Kalynivka area:

“A total of 6 Russian AFVs were destroyed.… pic.twitter.com/qeAKWTVaSL

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 20, 2024

Yesterday Russians gathers forces to attack Ukrainian positions in Kalynivka, Chasiv Yar direction. On the video, a tank of the Defense Forces of Ukraine fires at Russian BMP.

Deepstate regarding Russian attack in Kalynivka area:

“A total of 6 Russian AFVs were destroyed. Among them are 2 tanks, 2 BMPs, 1 unidentified type of equipment and 1 MT-LB. MT-LB was a kamikaze, it is the one that explodes at 00:50 second of the video.”

https://t.me/DeepStateUA/19738

Vasylivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

Better quality video of the same strike on Russian base in Vasylivka. As said the strike was carried out by MiG-29. https://t.co/hKEE9mVGr0 https://t.co/Z5R6Pj9nCo pic.twitter.com/fI4DZyQa2z

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 20, 2024

The Kharkiv front:

Soldiers of the 36th brigade of Ukraine clear Russian positions on the Kharkiv front. https://t.co/SJATLQ3oxm pic.twitter.com/PODF1qba0Q

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 20, 2024

Kharkiv:

Kids are getting ready for their graduation ceremony performance in a bunker in Kharkiv. Most of them have only experienced school online. pic.twitter.com/SZmVa4BoGf

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) June 20, 2024

Not quite sure where in Ukraine this is:

The occupiers are filming the moment of the epic annihilation of a Russian tank (Ukrainian operators of attack drones are working)

— Мисливець за зорями (@small10space) June 20, 2024

Tatarigami and his Frontelligence Insight team take a deep dive into the gaps and holes in the sanctions regime. Via the Thread Reader App:

Sanctions enforcement against Russia remains weak, as companies, including those from the West, continue to supply critical manufacturing equipment to sanctioned Russian firms. Frontelligence Insight reveals details of its investigation and provides evidence.

🧵Thread:

2/ The Russian UAV manufacturer “Albatros,” based in Alabuga, is led by Aleksei Florov, also a chief designer involved in the localization of Iranian Shahed drones in Alabuga. Both “Albatros” and Aleksei Florov are sanctioned by several countries, including the US.

3/ The documents obtained by @CyberResUa and analyzed by Frontelligence Insight reveal that Aleksei Florov and his “Albatros” not only maintain trade relations with foreign companies through intermediaries but often engage directly with them.

4/ While Chinese companies play a key role, other companies, including French and Korean, have also been spotted. For instance, the Russian branch of the South Korean software company Midas Engineering Software directly offered to provide manufacturing software to Albatros

5/ Thanks to an email conversation between Florov and Dmitry Vorontsov, the regional manager of “UNIT MARK PRO,” we know that Unit Mark Pro supplies the Russian military industry, including Zala Aero (Lancet manufacturer), with industrial equipment from SIC Marking, France

6/ Chinese companies often work directly with Albatros to supply crucial components like semiconductors. Leaked emails reveal that Asia Semiconductor openly offer to bypass sanctions and supply with Mean Well, Aimtec, Siemens, Chinfa, Maxim, XILINX, Atmel, Wago, Vicor, and ST/TI

7/ Another example is Ericco Inertial System, based in Xi’an, China, which reached out directly to the CEO of Albatros, offering to sell MEMS MIUs (navigational devices for measuring navigational data) for their UAVs.

8/ Unfortunately, it doesn’t stop at relatively small items. The Russian company AREAL was in contact with Albatros, offering to deliver industrial manufacturing equipment such as milling machines, lathes, CNC machines, metal laser, and plasma cutting machines from China and ROC

9/ Based on billing and invoice documents, we know that some transactions were successful. For instance, in October 2023, at least five Japanese Saito engines were purchased for over 1.13 million rubles. The invoice lists Florov as the Chief Designer of “Alabuga”.

10/ It was also disappointing to see NVIDIA representatives reaching out directly to sanctioned Florov to participate in an AI conference. While this may not constitute a violation of sanctions, the careless attitude of corporations shows that sanctions lack seriousness

11/ At the same time, it might not be surprising – after all, Agroassist, another company affiliated with Florov specializing in software for his drones, as covered in our previous investigation, is a member of the Nvidia Inception Program.

12/ The list of companies and products provided here is not exhaustive – the actual number of sanctions violators is much larger, spanning a wider geographic area. However, none of them appear concerned with sanctions or their consequences, due to the lack of enforcement

13/ Our team will continue to investigate and compile a list of violators. The full article, including all names, will be published this week, further detailing how lax sanction enforcement leads to the expansion of Russian military production, particularly in the UAV sector

14/ We appreciate your support. Please consider retweeting and liking this thread to aid with visibility, as raising public awareness is the key.

You can also contribute to our efforts by donating to help fund further investigations like this one:

Tatarigami_UA is All Source Public IntelligenceSatellite imagery and other expenses https://buymeacoffee.com/frontelligence

Several different locations in Russia, including air bases and petroleum facilities.

/2. Fire in the direction of Russian military airfield in Eysk after drone attack.
POV: 46.679742,38.296845https://t.co/0dQ8kf2oNE pic.twitter.com/eUtxwK114l

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 20, 2024

/2. Krasnodar oil refinery area was targeted.
Approximate POV: (44.9997123, 38.9570887) pic.twitter.com/BxMTHHmVTZ

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 21, 2024

/2. Aftermath of the drone strike on oil depot in Platonovka. (52.7167227, 41.9622082) pic.twitter.com/5inIPRw6aJ

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 20, 2024

/1. Two Russian oil depots were hit by drones tonight.

– Oil depot in Platonovka, Tambov region of Russia. 400km from the frontline.
-Lukoil oil depot in Enem, Adygea Republic of Russia. 340km from the frontline.

P.S: Some media also say that Afipskiy oil refinery was hit, but it’s not the case. Enem oil depot and Afipskiy oil refinery are located in close proximity, which has caused erroneous media reports.

/4. Satellite imagery of Russian oil depot in Tambov region after tonight’s drone attack. https://t.co/whgDaUd3Xf

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 20, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos tonight. Here is some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.

Ukrainian marine: strong, brave, kind-hearted.

📷: @Liberov pic.twitter.com/sptrPQHH1W

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 20, 2024

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 848: The Butcher’s Bill from Last Night’s/This Morning’s Russian AttackPost + Comments (26)

Thursday Night Open Thread

by John Cole| June 20, 20247:24 pm| 106 Comments

This post is in: John Cole Presents "This Fucking Old House", Open Threads

Another hot day here today, and I didn’t spend much time outside other than filling the bird bath, heading to the pharmacy for a refill, and heading up the hill to the post office to check my mailbox. The house is at a very comfortable 78 at the moment, which is hotter than I would like, but I just have a hard time justifying cooling a house this big any lower than that for just one person. I have one of those portable ac units in my bedroom and in my office, and I turn them on when I am in those rooms. Other than that, the house will just have to stay at 78. Soon enough this heat wave will pass and I can open the windows at night and get temperatures down again.

***

I’m watching Dune again because I wanted to see the second installment but decided I should rewatch the first before doing so, and I have to say I am really impressed with how “big” and “grand” and “epic” the director made it feel. A lot of directors try to do that, but it just doesn’t work. This guy pulls it off. Several of his movies have that “big” feel to them, for lack of a better word.

Speaking of science fiction, one of the things I think about a lot is time. How we perceive it, how we treat it and use it, how our concepts of time change over time, etc. One of my favorite ways of looking at time is taking my current age (53) and go back to the year I was born, then subtract my lifetime, and you end up with the year 1917. Then think to myself- I know how long the time I have been a live has felt, and think back to what things were life in an equal period of time and you find us in the heart of WW1. And just think how different things are in that arc of time for which I have a frame of reference.

I suppose it is looking at time kind of the same way you look at the distance of a diving board before you jump. A six foot high dive seems so much bigger than six feet, and that is because it is. I’m six feet tall, so if I am standing on a 6′ diving board looking down, it’s not six feet from my eyes to the water, it’s 12 feet! Twice as large. It’s just a matter of perspective.

At any rate, it gives you a viewpoint on history and change that is different. It also leads to one of the things that irritates me a lot these days, which is that the rise of the internet and social media the virality of videos and well, life these days has really fooled so many people into thinking they are the main character when the fact of the matter is that in your life and personal story, you are the main character, but in the big scheme of things, you’re an NPC. More than likely you were cut from the game during beta.

If you think back to 1917 and on, how many people REALLY made history. How many people are in the books as titular characters of importance. How many do people currently remember. Honestly, how many people could you name from the last hundred years? A thousand? How many could the majority of people remember from the last 100 years? A couple dozen? That’s not to say most people aren’t important. Everyone makes a difference in someone’s life. But I digress.

One of the things that is curious to me is how an alien species would view time. We do things based on the time our planet rotates around the sun. How would alien life forms from different solar systems view time? Would they? Most certainly they wouldn’t in the same way we do. And how would it change their perceptions? I always thought the way the Ents took “forever” to the hobbits to think was for them no time at all was a neat framing. Then again, I don’t even really know how other people view time- I can’t really even know for sure if they perceive colors anywhere like I do. I’m almost sure they don’t.

I have nowhere to go with this thread and no I am not drinking again.

Thursday Night Open ThreadPost + Comments (106)

Open Thread: Billionaires Making Bad Choices

by Anne Laurie| June 20, 20247:14 pm| 35 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., Elections 2024, Open Threads, Republican Politics, Trumpery

(Jeff Danziger via GoComics.com)

This should be front-and-center in every “hey why are so many VCs backing Trump this time” article.
Joe Biden has spent 3.5 years rebuilding administrative capacity.
We now have regulators actually saying “hey knock it off that’s illegal.”
The VCs would much prefer autocracy to accountability.

[image or embed]

— Dave Karpf (@davekarpf.bsky.social) Jun 18, 2024 at 9:39 AM

A psychoanalysis of the CEOs who are playing nice with Trump from @JVLast.

Particularly gross for me to see Tim Cook continuing to play patsy for Trump. Totally unnecessary and gross. https://t.co/90xVyEgzng

— Tim Miller (@Timodc) June 17, 2024

show full post on front page

Conservative Never-Trumpist spells it out:

… [W]why would Jamie Dimon (JPMorgan Chase), Brian Moynihan (Bank of America), Jane Fraser (Citi), Charlie Scharf (Wells Fargo), Tim Cook (Apple), Doug McMillon (WalMart), and scores of others show up to kiss the ring of a man they privately mock?…

There is a simple reason why these CEOs are cozying up to Trump and showing Joe Biden the back of their well-manicured hands:

Because crossing Trump could be costly; but crossing Biden is free.

We do not live in a truly free market system. The government is too big and sprawling; there are too many inputs, and externalities, and rent seekers.

But in general, the government doesn’t pick the winners and losers in a liberal democracy.

That is not true in illiberal democracies…

So pretend you’re Thurston Moneygood, the CEO of Widget AI. Your business is doing well, but the future is uncertain. What should you do about Trump and Biden? There are four possible pathways.

(1) You support Biden and Biden wins. You continue as you are now. The overall economic climate remains good. The rule of law stays intact. Maybe the second Biden administration will grant you an audience and listen to your concerns or advice. But you can’t expect special favors. You’re still pretty much on your own, competing against all the other AI companies.

(2) You support Biden and Trump wins. Not great. Trump and his people keep score and if the CEO of a competing AI company goes to Trump and asks for his help kneecapping you and Widget AI . . . well, you know what Trump thinks about loyalty.

(3) You support Trump and Trump wins. At the very least, this guarantees your status quo. At best? Sky’s the limit: You would not want to trade places with the CEOs of the AI company who supported Biden…

(4) You support Trump and Biden wins. What happens? Nothing. Literally nothing. Elon Musk’s businesses are built on exploiting the federal government through tax breaks and Defense contracts. Musk has been railing against Biden for four years. And he is fine. His businesses are fine. There is no retaliation. (Which is as it should be!)…

In a liberal democracy, institutions exist to prevent the demos from being offered the choice between liberalism and illiberalism. The job of institutions—from the political parties, to the media, to the business world, to think tanks and religious organizations and all the rest—is to stop aspiring authoritarians from ever getting in front of The People and offering them the choice between the rule of law and rule by law.

Over the last decade our institutions failed that task. Americans are now free to choose illiberal democracy if they please. The Business Roundtable isn’t going to save us.

The only way this gets fixed is from the inside…

Yes, sure, the Trump administration might jail me for writing mean things on the Internet.

Their climate policy will boil the ocean.

Their tariff plans will be a macroeconomic nightmare.

But regulators asleep at the wheel are *great* for Marc Andreessen’s investment portfolio.

— Dave Karpf (@davekarpf.bsky.social) Jun 18, 2024 at 9:54 AM

Reminder — this is the clip that set off the social-media chatter:

Brutal report from @andrewrsorkin on Trump's visit with CEOs yesterday:

"CEOs who said that he was remarkably meandering, could not keep a straight thought, was all over the map."

CEOs who walked in as soft Trump supporters walked out startled by him pic.twitter.com/m68PeT52ez

— James Singer (@Jemsinger) June 14, 2024

Open Thread: Billionaires Making Bad ChoicesPost + Comments (35)

WaterGirl on Run for Something Takes a Victory Lap (and Open Thread) (Nov 8, 2025 @ 3:06pm)

cain on I Have Three Questions (Nov 8, 2025 @ 3:06pm)

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Another Scott on I Have Three Questions (Nov 8, 2025 @ 3:05pm)

bbleh on I Have Three Questions (Nov 8, 2025 @ 3:03pm)

Insiders who complain to politico: please report to the white house office of shut the fuck up.

Let’s delete this post and never speak of this again.

There are some who say that there are too many strawmen arguments on this blog.

Polls are now a reliable indicator of what corporate Republicans want us to think.

Following reporting rules is only for the little people, apparently.

Relentless negativity is not a sign that you are more realistic.

“The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits.”

This really is a full service blog.

The “burn-it-down” people are good with that until they become part of the kindling.

“Alexa, change the president.”

You passed on an opportunity to be offended? What are you even doing here?

An almost top 10,000 blog!

“But what about the lurkers?”

Bark louder, little dog.

“Perhaps I should have considered other options.” (head-desk)

“Everybody’s entitled to be an idiot.”

Why is it so hard for them to condemn hate?

The willow is too close to the house.

Jack Smith: “Why did you start campaigning in the middle of my investigation?!”

Jack be nimble, jack be quick, hurry up and indict this prick.

DeSantis transforming Florida into 1930s Germany with gators and theme parks.

Donald Trump found guilty as fuck – May 30, 2024!

These are not very smart people, and things got out of hand.

Our messy unity will be our strength.

Nothing Changes, Until It Does (Open Thread)

US to redirect Patriot air defence orders to Ukraine

Supreme Court Decisions Again Today at 10 am Eastern

TGIFriday Morning Open Thread: Something Attempted, Something Done

War for Ukraine Day 848: The Butcher’s Bill from Last Night’s/This Morning’s Russian Attack

The Life of Ukraine Must Be Preserved, Particularly in Terms of Energy Supply – Address by the President

Thursday Night Open Thread

Open Thread: Billionaires Making Bad Choices