All the Partners are Fully Informed about Our Actual Needs and the Real Situation on the Front – Address by the President

21 May 2024 – 20:24

Dear Ukrainians!

Today, I continued our diplomatic marathon – the marathon of preparations for the Global Peace Summit, a gathering of many leaders aimed at implementing the Peace Formula that can force Russia into a just peace. Today I spoke with the leaders of Romania, Angola, and Iraq. I invited them to the Summit and informed them about the work already done for the organization of the Summit and its efficiency. The UN Charter unites all the nations, and all the states are equally interested in ensuring that the goals and principles of the UN Charter are truly a working tool for maintaining peace, in them being effective.

In addition, I discussed with the President of Romania our cooperation on security and stability in our region and the entire Europe. In particular, the defense cooperation between Ukraine and Romania. I thanked him for preparing a new defense package for our warriors. I discussed with the President of Angola the possibilities of our bilateral cooperation, and I invited Mr. President to visit Ukraine. I also spoke with the Prime Minister of Iraq about relations between our countries, about our common need – the need for maximum stability in the world. It is very important, among other things, that our export sea corridor works, and that Ukrainian food reaches the world market and prevents fatal shortages. This contributes to the stability of the Gulf region and many other parts of the world. We will continue this work, increasing, as much as possible in the face of the full-scale terrorist threat from Russia, our Ukrainian contribution to global food security. And this is also our own economic security – Ukrainian exports, Ukrainian revenues, and Ukrainian employment in many industries. I also spoke today with the President of Azerbaijan about the situation in the energy sector in our country and about cooperation between our countries in this field. Today I also met with the Minister for Foreign Affairs of Germany. I thanked her for all the support provided – Germany is one of our most important partners. We also discussed our further joint work – both in the security and political spheres and in the context of our European integration. I am grateful to Germany for understanding the importance of achieving a real result in June – the actual start of negotiations on Ukraine’s accession to the European Union. Now everything is combined to the maximum possible extent: security issues, our defense capabilities – not only those of Ukraine but of the entire Europe, as well as diplomatic work and economic sustainability of Ukraine. Every new connection of Ukraine with the world, every strengthened communication and cooperation means additional opportunities for all of us to protect the lives of our people, our cities and communities, to ensure the strength of our army, and to bring real peace closer.

Today I received detailed reports from the Minister of Defense Umerov and the Chief of the General Staff Barhylevych on the situation on the frontline and on ensuring our defense. The Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi also delivered a report. The day before, there was a regular Ramstein format meeting – today there was a report on the work on our needs. First of all, it is air defense, armored vehicles, and shells. All partners are fully informed about our actual needs and the real situation at the front. I am grateful to each state, each leader, all the partners’ Ministers of Defense and Chiefs of Staff who are truly ready to help and fulfill the promises made. The whole content of the communication with the partners should be reflected in the content of the real combat work of our warriors – the means of destruction that are needed at the front right now, in these weeks, not sometime in the summer. The situation in the Pokrovsk direction and other Donetsk directions – Kramatorsk and Kurakhove – remains extremely difficult now, it’s where most of the combat is taking place. The Kharkiv region – our forces are destroying the occupier, and the results are tangible. I thank all our warriors for their accuracy and resilience.

I thank everyone who fights and works for our country and people! I thank everyone who enhances our defense capabilities.

Today I had an opportunity to meet with our young scientists working in various fields, as well as with the very young ones who are still planning to start their careers and planning to do so in Ukraine, which is important. I thank everyone who stands with Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1792807705372959119

From Reuters:

KYIV, May 20 (Reuters) – Western allies are taking too long to make key decisions on military support for Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told Reuters in an exclusive in Kyiv on Monday.

He also said he was pushing partners to get more directly in the war by helping to intercept Russian missiles over Ukraine and allowing Kyiv to use Western weapons against enemy military equipment amassing near the border.

The call to accelerate aid and push so-called “red lines” of engagement in the conflict reflect the growing pressure Zelenskiy’s forces are under along more than 1,000 km of front lines in the northeast, east and south of the country.

An impassioned Zelenskiy, dressed in his familiar khaki T-shirt and trousers, said the situation on the battlefield was “one of the most difficult” he had known since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.

In recent weeks Moscow’s troops have made incursions into northeastern Ukraine, further testing Kyiv’s already stretched defences. At the same time, Russia has taken territory in the eastern Donbas region in sometimes fierce battles.

“A very powerful wave (of fighting) is going on in Donbas … No-one even notices that there are actually more battles in the east of the country, specifically in the Donbas direction: Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar.”

He added, however, that the situation north of Kharkiv was now “under control”.

The 46-year-old was speaking on the fifth anniversary of his inauguration as president. He has not contested elections because of martial law imposed due to the invasion.

Zelenskiy called again for faster military aid from the United States and other partners. Weapons and ammunition from a recently passed U.S. package is now arriving in Ukraine, but it was delayed for months by internal political wrangling.

“Every decision to which we, then later everyone together, comes to is late by around one year,” said Zelenskiy.

“But it is what it is: one big step forward, but before that two steps back. So we need to change the paradigm a little bit.”

RISK OF ESCALATION?

Zelenskiy said he wanted his partners to be more directly involved in the war, but understood they were wary of antagonising Russia.

“It’s a question of will,” he said. “But everyone says a word that sounds the same in every language: everyone is scared of escalation. Everyone has gotten used to the fact that Ukrainians are dying – that’s not escalation for people.”

He proposed that the armed forces of neighbouring NATO countries could intercept incoming Russian missiles over Ukrainian territory to help Kyiv protect itself.

Russia has fired thousands of missiles and drones at Ukraine since the start of the wider conflict, and air defences are a priority for Kyiv.

“Russians are using 300 planes on the territory of Ukraine. We need at least 120, 130 planes to resist in the sky,” he said. Ukraine is waiting for the delivery of U.S.-designed F-16s which have yet to be used in anger.

He said that if countries could not supply the planes straight away, they could still fly them from neighbouring NATO states and shoot down Russian missiles.

Here’s the video of the full interview:

DC:

https://twitter.com/HouseIntel/status/1792701887361450424

You know what would have expedited resources to Ukraine? Not futzing around for over a year with the Ukraine supplemental because of the dysfunctional GOP House majority caucus followed by Trump’s surrogates among the GOP Senate minority caucus doing his bidding to further slow things down in the attempt to derail the supplemental.

Here’s Tatarigami’s take via the Thread Reader App:

I am not an authorized person or official representative to make statements on behalf of the military or the entire country, but I want to share the concerns expressed by many on the frontlines, from privates to colonels. They often ask me: where is the promised aid?

🧵Thread: 

2/ Considering that I talk to many analysts and experts worldwide, many of my friends and acquaintances hope I can provide them with comprehensive knowledge and answers in private. However, the truth is, I don’t have an answer. 

3/ I might criticize my President for his mistakes, but he’s right on multiple issues. One of them is foreign aid— it’s too little, too late. It causes an effect that I coined as the “vaccination effect,” where small weapon deliveries don’t tip the balance but let the enemy adapt 

4/ This situation also creates an environment where battlefield failures are blamed either entirely on the US for not providing enough aid or on the Ukrainian government for poor or delayed wartime political decisions, such as delayed mobilization or lack of fortifications. 

5/ At this point, it’s not uncommon for me to hear theories suggesting that the West, especially the US, is deliberately withholding aid to force Ukraine into negotiations. It’s also believed that the US influences European partners, causing delays in aid from Europe as well. 

6/ Whether I agree with these theories or not is irrelevant. What’s more concerning is that such narratives are present among Ukrainian soldiers and officers, who do not understand why they can’t engage Russian forward bases and concentrations of forces with the provided weapons 

7/ One could argue that it’s not the US’s responsibility to provide more aid to Ukraine However, if that’s the case, then the leaders of the free world should be transparent about it: “This war has made you a burden, and you should handle it on your own from here” 

8/ Once more, I may partially agree, fully agree, or disagree with this sentiment. I aim to transmit these sentiments I’ve heard from dozens of people. The strategic miscalculations of our leadership don’t excuse our partners from their previous commitments and transparency. 

Kharkiv:

https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1793001150058230085

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1792807558748733519

The Economist has the details:

Ten days after the start on May 10th of Russia’s offensive in Kharkiv province, the pace of the advance has slowed. For now, Ukraine is holding the Russians roughly halfway through Vovchansk—a town, just 5km from the border, that is now being turned to ashes—and at positions roughly 9km inside Ukraine further west, near Lyptsi. With an estimated 48,000 troops ready, Russia does not have the forces for a major attack on Kharkiv city, Ukraine’s second biggest. But local military leaders insist that the situation remains precarious, and could change quickly. Russian columns were halted only after several experienced brigades were redeployed and came to the rescue, one says; Vladimir Putin will “surely” try his luck by opening a new attack elsewhere in the region.

A Russian column is already forming further north in Sudzha, on the other side of the border from Sumy, a regional capital north-west of Kharkiv. Ukraine’s army is also bracing for another strike just east of Vovchansk, towards the village of Bilyi Kolodiaz. Battles have also reactivated near Kupiansk, a railway hub, with Ukraine in effect losing control of the nearby village of Berestove on May 17th.

It is still too early to be sure about the eventual aims of the Russian operation. Also on May 17th Mr Putin declared that his only intention was to create a buffer zone between Ukraine and the border city of Belgorod, insisting there was “no plan” to threaten Kharkiv itself. But this possibly reflects evolving battleground realities rather than intentions. Retrieved military plans, details of which were shared with The Economist, suggest the Russians were probing to see if they could partially encircle Kharkiv and put pressure on the Ukrainian formations to the east of the Pechenihy reservoir. The operation was supposedly planned for May 15th-16th but was brought forward by nearly a week for unknown reasons.

According to the plans, the Russians had identified two axes of attack on either side of the reservoir. The push on the western axis was intended, over 72 hours, to bring Russian troops to within artillery range of Kharkiv city at the village of Borshchova. They were stopped by a rapidly redeployed grouping from the elite 92nd Brigade, which pushed them back a full 10km from their initial goal. But up until that moment, the story had been about Ukraine’s poor defensive fortifications, about how the 125th Brigade that should have repelled the attack in fact fled from positions while under pressure, and about serious Ukrainian losses.

On the Vovchansk axis, further east, the Russian plan had been to fight past Anna’s father’s house on the reservoir, right down to the town of Pechenihy. The Russians initially made quick work of this operation, sweeping through an area that should have been prepared with minefields and serious engineering fortifications but wasn’t. “They were just simply allowed to walk through,” complains Denys Yaroslavsky, a special-forces officer whose social media posts on May 12th alerted the outside world to the possibility of a wider reverse. “We were watching them cut through the border fence on screens at about 11pm on May 9th, and I said to my men to watch how they would blow themselves up on mines. There were no explosions; they simply carried on.”

Many of the soldiers in Kharkiv are angry that Russia was able to advance so far so quickly. Some of them criticise delays in Western aid, which they believe encouraged Russian aggression and weakened Ukrainian defences. Others suspect that incompetence, or even treachery, played a more significant role. Conspiracy theories to the effect that politicians in Kyiv or Washington may be selling Kharkiv down the river ahead of an ugly peace deal are also circulating. Official Ukrainian narratives that present a rosy picture are not helping to calm nerves. “[President Volodymyr] Zelensky is being kept in a warm bath,” complains Mr Yaroslavsky. “We think the president should tune into the situation on the ground and not ape Putin, a man whose life revolves around the papers his aides bring him.” A government official, who asked to remain anonymous, suggests that Mr Zelensky had already sensed he might not be receiving the full truth. “That’s what he yells at his generals, at least.”

Oleksandr Husarov, the head of the Pechenigi municipality, says optimistic news reports about Ukrainian strength have themselves created different problems in the effort to evacuate people from towns near Vovchansk. When the Russians seized much of the area at the start of the war in 2022, the occupation was not as harsh as in other areas of Ukraine. Some mistakenly believe the occupation will be mild if it happens this time round too, says Mr Husarov. Even the most stubborn can be “shaken out” of that belief when they see the “burned earth” left behind by Russian glide bombs and drones, he adds. But Anna’s father remains unconvinced. Petro insists he was lucky to be home when a Russian Shahed drone smashed into it in early March; that way, he could put out the fire. He won’t be preparing an emergency suitcase, he tells his increasingly exasperated daughter, who is packing up mementoes of her childhood—documents, photographs, an antique floral table service—into carrier bags. “All of Ukraine is exploding,” he says. “Besides, where would I go?”

More at the link.

Here is Tatarigami’s take on The Economist reporting above via the Thread Reader App:

Yesterday, The Economist published an article stating that, according to military plans shared with them, Russian forces aimed to get within artillery range of Kharkiv within 72 hours and were probing to see if they could partially encircle the city. Here is why I am skeptical:

2/ First and foremost, if you examine the composition of forces Russia has used in this direction, the core of the advance consisted of motor rifle regiments with limited vehicle presence. These units were advancing in the form of dispersed small tactical groups on foot mostly 

3/ Any deep and swift advance would require mechanized units ready to exploit breaches in defenses. Considering the article’s claim that Russian forces had 72 hours to complete their task, the absence of a capable force to execute such a strike is rather puzzling. 

4/ While Borshchova could have been seized by Russian forces within 72 hours, Pechenihy is over 30 km from the border at Vovchansk in a straight line. Were the Russians expected to advance 10 km daily on foot?

5/ Organizing the logistics for advancing troops over such a distance would be extremely difficult given the resources available to the Russians in the area. Currently, they are struggling with supply lines in the Hlyboke area, which is less than 10 km from the border. 

6/ Overall, after the painful experience of the initial phase of the 2022 invasion, Russian forces have since focused on creeping advances, frontline widening, and tactical flanking maneuvers instead of attempting swift advances into operational depth 

7/ While it might be tempting to dismiss this as a simple miscalculation by the command, akin to the “Kyiv in 3 days”, my personal experience working with Russian plans and documents suggests that russian forces know their logistical limitations and plan much better than before 

8/ In my opinion, based on the actions and composition of forces, it appeared to be a probing attack with the goal of diverting Ukrainian forces (which it successfully achieved) from Donbas. Due to initial successes, the Russians became more confident in the Kharkiv region. 

9/ In turn, this can still transform from a probing and diversionary attack into a main axis. Considering the aforementioned factors, I remain skeptical of the idea that anyone seriously considered the deployed forces to be sufficient to partially encircle Kharkiv within 72 hours 

10/ Thank you for taking the time to read my thread! If you enjoyed it, I would greatly appreciate it if you could consider liking and sharing the first message of the thread to help boost its visibility.

You can also support me via tips:

sdf

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1792955710206079027

The below video shows what Russia’s massive glide bombs look like when they strike. They’re devastating weapons made from old dumb bombs modernized with pop-out wings and guidance systems. And they are launched by Russian planes from upwards of 60km away and in some cases — like around Kharkiv — from inside Russian territory.

Here’s my @FT story about these terrifying weapons: Russian ‘glide bombs’ pound Ukrainian troops and towns https://on.ft.com/4aBzPYo

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1792832182500684211

In the Vovchans’k direction, paratroopers of the 82nd Separate Air Assault brigade successfully repel enemy offensives.

Recently, the Chernivtsi paratroopers have already destroyed about two companies of enemy personnel. There are a lot of enemies in this direction, but they are quickly running out.

Sumy Oblast:

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1792852160511627464

⚡️ Border Guard: Russian offensive in Sumy Oblast can’t be ruled out.

Russia has “certain units” on the border with Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast, and an attack in this sector “can never be ruled out,” State Border Guard Service spokesperson Andrii Demchenko told RFE/RL on May 21.

Read also: https://kyivindependent.com/border-guard-russian-offensive-in-sumy-oblast-cant-be-ruled-out/

📷 Kostiantyn Liberov/ Libkos/Getty Images

Here are the details from The Kyiv Independent:

Russia has “certain units” on the border with Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast, and an attack in this sector “can never be ruled out,” State Border Guard Service spokesperson Andrii Demchenko told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s (RFE/RL) on May 21.

Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine’s military intelligence chief, suggested in mid-May that Russian forces may launch an offensive in Sumy Oblast similar to the ongoing one in Kharkiv Oblast when the conditions are more favorable.

Russia may try to attack the region even if it lacks the forces, Demchenko said.

“It is in order to stretch the front line, the line of active combat operations, and actually stretch (Ukraine’s) defense forces,” he added.

“We also need to understand that the length of the border with our enemy is quite large. It is more than 560 kilometers (around 350 miles) in Sumy Oblast alone.”

Ukraine should be prepared for “any situations” and continue to build up its defense capabilities, Demchenko said.

Since the Russian-occupied parts of Sumy Oblast were liberated in early April 2022, the region has been experiencing daily shelling and attacks from across the border, as it is located on Ukraine’s northeastern border with Russia.

Ukrainian authorities ordered further evacuations from the region amid intensified attacks.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1792887503617216644

The rest of the Geraschenko tweet is just a long excerpt from The Economist article.

Bilohorivka, Russian occupied Luhansk Oblast:

https://twitter.com/small10space/status/1792896188942815660

Here’s the machine translation:

The occupiers continue to use scorched earth tactics in Donbas
In the video, you can see Russian shelling in the area of ​​the village of Bilogorivka, Luhansk region, using a large number of Grad anti-aircraft missiles and Solntsepok rocket launchers (you can see the level of intensity yourself) ⬇️

Chasiv Yar:

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1792989234162208952

Sevastopol, Russian occupied Crimea:

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1792929291346276838

Confirmed!

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1792931043948855636

Here’s the full text of the tweet numbered 2 above:

2. First satellite imagery of the location of the reported strike on Russian Project 266M Kovrovets and Project 22800 Cyclone in the Sevastopol harbour.

There is a damage to the building visible as a result of the strike. However Cyclone and Kovrovets are nowhere to be seen. They have not yet been found in the entire Sevastopol Bay area.
https://t.me/kiber_boroshno/8443

The Kinburn Peninsula:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1792954413599928553

Moscow, via Tucker Carlson’s home studio, which I think is in Maine:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1792907332487200890

Also, Moscow:

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1792996396926120049

❗️Russian authorities have made a unilateral decision to change the sea borders of Russia with Lithuania and Finland in the Baltic Sea. This follows from the draft government resolution published on the portal of legal acts of the Russian Federation.

According to the document drafted by the Russian defense ministry, Russia intends to declare part of the water area in the east of the Gulf of Finland, as well as near the cities of Baltiysk and Zelenogradsk in the Kaliningrad region as its internal sea waters.

To do that, geographic coordinates of the points that determine the position of the baselines from which the width of the territorial sea of ​​the Russian Federation is measured, as well as the adjacent zone off the coast and islands will be changed.

🔹At the border with Finland, Russian government intends to correct the coordinates in the area of ​​the islands of Yahi, Sommers, Holland, Rodsher, Maly Tyuters, Vigrund, as well as near the northern entrance cape of the Narva River, follows from the appendix to the Cabinet of Ministers.

🔹On the border with Lithuania, the area of ​​the Curonian Spit in the Gulf of Gdansk, the areas of Cape Taran, the cape south of Cape Taran, as well as the Baltic Spit came under review.

The current geographical coordinates established by the USSR Council of Ministers in 1985 “do not fully correspond to the modern geographical situation,” the authors of the project claim. The points were recorded “using small-scale maritime navigation charts,” which, in turn, were based on works from the mid-20th century, and this “does not allow us to determine the external boundary of the internal sea waters” of the Russian Federation, the document says.

As a result of the changes, “a previously absent system of straight baselines will be established on the southern part of the Russian islands in the eastern part of the Gulf of Finland, as well as in the area of ​​Baltiysk and Zelenogradsk, allowing the corresponding water areas to be used as internal sea waters of the Russian Federation; The passage of the State border of the Russian Federation at sea will change due to a change in the position of the external border of the territorial sea,” the authors of the project explained.

The 40-year-old resolution of the USSR Council of Ministers regulating the borders in the Baltic Sea is proposed by the Ministry of Defense to be partially “recognized as ineffective” (section “Baltic Sea”).

Here’s more from The Kyiv Independent:

Russia has unilaterally moved to change the maritime border with Lithuania and Finland in the Baltic Sea, according to the decree published on the Russian government’s website.

Lithuania and Finland have not yet reacted to Russia’s decision toward the maritime border, nor has Russia’s unilateral decision been recognized internationally.

Russia intends toappropriate inland sea waters in the eastern part of the Gulf of Finland and near the cities of Baltiysk and Zelenodradsk in Kaliningrad Oblast, according to a decree prepared by the Russian Defense Ministry.

Through the decree, Russia aims to change the geographic coordinates, which measure the width of the Russian territorial sea and the area near the coastline and the islands.

Russia intends to change the geographic coordinates near the Sommers, Jahi, Rodsher, Malyi Tyuters, Vigrund, and Gogland islands, as well as the north cape on the Narva River near the state border with Finland.

In its proposed changes, Russia also reconsidered the areas near the Curonian and Vistula splits and the Taran Cape on the border with Lithuania.

The decree read that the previous geographic coordinates were allegedly registered relying on small-scale marine navigation maps, which were based on 20th-century research and “do not allow to determine the external border of the internal sea waters” of Russia.

The valid geographic coordinates, established by a decree of the USSR Ministers Council in 1985, “do not fully correspond to the current geographic situation,” the document read.

Now we wait to see what Lithuania and Finland do.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets today. Here is some adjacent material.

https://twitter.com/UAarmy_animals/status/1791985356604141818

https://twitter.com/UAarmy_animals/status/1789806793247395856

https://twitter.com/UAarmy_animals/status/1789806336407925160

Open thread!