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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Well, whatever it is, it’s better than being a Republican.

Something needs to be done about our bogus SCOTUS.

If you don’t believe freedom is for everybody, then the thing you love isn’t freedom, it is privilege.

Fight them, without becoming them!

To the privileged, equality seems like oppression.

Consistently wrong since 2002

No offense, but this thread hasn’t been about you for quite a while.

Fucking consultants! (of the political variety)

Sitting here in limbo waiting for the dice to roll

The real work of an opposition party is to oppose.

If you can’t control your emotions, someone else will.

Polls are now a reliable indicator of what corporate Republicans want us to think.

It’s pointless to bring up problems that can only be solved with a time machine.

“Alexa, change the president.”

“woke” is the new caravan.

Only Democrats have agency, apparently.

A sufficient plurality of insane, greedy people can tank any democratic system ever devised, apparently.

Pessimism assures that nothing of any importance will change.

They punch you in the face and then start crying because their fist hurts.

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires republicans to act in good faith.

Oppose, oppose, oppose. do not congratulate. this is not business as usual.

This is dead girl, live boy, a goat, two wetsuits and a dildo territory.  oh, and pink furry handcuffs.

Our job is not to persuade republicans but to defeat them.

I’ve spoken to my cat about this, but it doesn’t seem to do any good.

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Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

Open Threads

You are here: Home / Archives for Open Threads

“sufficient indicia of credibility”

by Betty Cracker|  March 1, 202410:57 am| 93 Comments

This post is in: Elections 2024, Open Threads, Politics, Our Failed Media Experiment

I’ve been half-assed monitoring the mainstream political media’s reaction to incontrovertible proof that the House GOP based its impeachment inquiry on a threadbare Russian disinformation campaign. In normal times, that would have been an earthshaking revelation, right? That one of the two viable political parties in the U.S. is using its constitutional powers to work the political will of a genocidal foreign dictator?

Of course, these are not normal times, and the latest score for Putin’s intelligence services isn’t a bit surprising to folks who’ve paid attention since Donald Trump descended that accursed escalator in 2015. We’ve watched from the cheap seats for damn near a decade now as a malignant foreign power manipulated that dope, coopted his morally and intellectually bankrupt party, and vaporized any objections to unconditional surrender with pitiful offerings of flattery and domestic political assistance.

But our high-minded elite political press is loathe to describe this reality in such stark terms. Maybe they fear if it’s as simple as telling folks what happened and explaining how it affects domestic and foreign policy, anyone could do their outrageously lucrative jobs. So, how are they coping? This snippet from a 2/22 piece by Susan Glasser, staff writer for The New Yorker, is a representative sample of the genre, IMO:

The Crazy Collapse of the House G.O.P.’s Impeachment Case Against Biden
“A Big Russian Intelligence Op” flops on Capitol Hill.

…There is much still to unravel about how this came to be. In the government’s court papers this week, Smirnov emerges as an almost comically obvious liar, telling multiple versions of his Biden bribery story, while bragging about contacts with various foreign intelligence services. How is it possible that this guy was an F.B.I. informant for more than a decade?

That’s a good question, but it has a corollary: Why did the mainstream political media, including Glasser’s husband, chief NYT White House correspondent Peter Baker, treat the House GOP goat rodeo as if it were a serious inquiry rather than a 5-alarm scandal featuring members of congress serving as the unwitting dupes or active partners of a hostile foreign regime?

It’s not like the links between the GOP House committee’s recent accusations and prior attempts to smear Joe Biden by corrupt Trump operatives like Rudy Giuliani weren’t “comically obvious” all along. Same bullshit lies, same repeatedly discredited liars.

It looks like Glasser and other elite media figures plan to just integrate the latest revelation into the preexisting scandal without a moment’s self-reflection on the role they themselves played in the mess. It’s a Republican circus, you see, and they are merely reporting on the acts:

In the “perfect” phone call that Trump himself publicly released, he pushed Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelensky, to open an inquiry into Biden, referring to allegations that Biden had “stopped the prosecution” of Burisma, a Ukrainian energy company that had paid Biden’s son to serve on its board, at a time when the then Vice-President was helping oversee U.S. policy toward Ukraine. This is the same conspiracy theory that Republicans have been pursuing in the current impeachment inquiry into Biden, all these years later. It did not matter to them when the charge was dismissed as unproved Russian disinformation back in 2019, and, I fear, it will not matter to them now that this latest iteration of the tale, with its own Moscow angle, has been discredited, too. The circus tent is not coming down; it has taken up permanent residence.

If only there were a class of expensively educated and highly influential people whose job it is to ferret out the truth and shout it from the rooftops. Regardless of how traitorous and corrupt the facts make one of the two major parties look. Maybe AI could figure this political reporting shit out?

BTW, “sufficient indicia of credibility” was Trump-appointed prosecutor Scott Brady’s excuse for passing Smirnov’s lies along to DOJ special counsel David Weiss, another Trump holdover who was put in charge of investigating Hunter Biden in August 2023. Glasser (and Baker, et al.) won’t say so, but it’s true — it’s time to clean house at the DOJ while there’s still a “sufficient indicia of credibility” left in the joint.

Open thread.

“sufficient indicia of credibility”Post + Comments (93)

Friday Morning Open Thread

by WaterGirl|  March 1, 20249:45 am| 93 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Politics

Open Thread 40

Anyone who wants to complain about Democratic message can fight me.

WATCH: @brianschatz torches Republicans on their efforts to criminalize IVF pic.twitter.com/70pspEvQcQ

— Mike Inacay (@MikeInacay) February 29, 2024

.
I thought I would share this, in case anyone is looking for simple, clear messaging to anyone who has “concerns” about Biden.

This.

There is not a god damned thing — besides the second amendment — that will survive a 6-3 Republican SCOTUS for a generation.

Stop with the political purity bullshit and vote like your future depends on it. https://t.co/vV2rxUnVV3

— Angry Staffer 🌻 (@Angry_Staffer) February 29, 2024

Open thread.

Friday Morning Open ThreadPost + Comments (93)

Open Thread: Hunter Biden Is, After All, A Biden

by Anne Laurie|  March 1, 20246:47 am| 100 Comments

This post is in: Impeachment Inquiry, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Republican Venality

Fox host: Republicans have failed to produce any evidence for impeaching Biden after dozens of interviews and over 100,000 documents released pic.twitter.com/XRkaps8eCO

— Biden-Harris HQ (@BidenHQ) February 28, 2024

I'll walk through Hunter Biden's refutations of GOP allegations tomorrow. Tonight, I looked at the big picture of his testimony and his effective explanations of his career and his relationship with his father. No paywall: https://t.co/d3rn1BO7vZ

— Philip Bump (@pbump) March 1, 2024

No ‘On The Road’ behind the FYWP curtain this morning (there’s a bunch queued up for next week, don’t worry), so here’s a bonus post from me. From the rapidly-becoming-a-must-read Philip Bump, at the Washington Post, “Hunter Biden gives House Republicans the rebuttal they didn’t want”:

Hunter Biden’s appearance in front of investigators and members of the House Oversight and Judiciary Committees unfolded a bit like a Bruce Lee movie.

Republican legislators and interviewers challenging the president’s son on the House majority’s behalf would throw out an allegation, often one that’s been worn smooth after tumbling around in the right-wing media universe for the past year or two. And Biden would invariably swat it away, stripping off the layers of innuendo that had been applied by Donald Trump and Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.) or Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) or any of myriad Fox News commentators.

This included epic battles against well-known foes, like an exchange between Hunter Biden and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), or repeated, extended back-and-forth with Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.). But at no point was a question left unanswered — including through an invocation of the Fifth Amendment — or, to an objective observer, left answered with obvious incompletion.

The discussion was centered on the Republican effort in the ongoing impeachment inquiry to demonstrate that President Biden had benefited financially from Hunter Biden’s business endeavors — and, they hoped, that the elder Biden had used his position as vice president to that end. They were unsuccessful in making that case from the hearing’s first moments.

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“I did not involve my father in my business,” Hunter Biden said in his opening comments, “not while I was a practicing lawyer, not in my investments or transactions, domestic or international, not as a board member, and not as an artist, never.” His position did not diverge from that at any point; instead, he frequently invoked this same claim over and over again as a means of cutting off one of the familiar lines of inquiry with which he was presented…

Hunter Biden’s testimony centered heavily on two themes. First, the closeness of his family, having been drawn together by the tragic deaths of his mother and, later, his brother. This is why he always took his father’s calls, he said, and why he would always welcome his father to join him at dinners.

“I can’t count the number of times my dad stopped to have dinner with me and my family,” he testified — including at a cafe that was situated between the White House and the vice-presidential residence.

The other was that Joe Biden was a career politician.

“My dad has been a United States Senator since I was 2 years old,” Biden said at one point. “My whole life has been this.”

His point? That glad-handing strangers and dropping into events was part of his father’s daily life — and therefore his own…

A legislator asked him whether he’d worked for foreign governments.

“I never worked for a country,” he replied. “I am not Jared Kushner.”…

.@RepRaskin: This impeachment inquiry has been a comedy of errors from the beginning…I think our colleagues would do best at this point to fold up the circus tent and allow us to focus on something that would actually be of benefit to the American people. pic.twitter.com/VLNbdaSsoc

— House Judiciary Dems (@HouseJudiciary) February 28, 2024

MAGA's impeachment goose chase can’t pin a high crime or misdemeanor on the president, and its original star witness sits in jail awaiting prosecution for lying to the FBI. And so it ends, not with a bang but a whimper.

Time to pack up the circus tent. pic.twitter.com/zaAx7G4mBO

— Rep. Jamie Raskin (@RepRaskin) February 29, 2024

Open Thread: Hunter Biden Is, After All, A BidenPost + Comments (100)

Late Night Open Thread: His Parents Say Sam Bankman-Fried Is Too Pretty Frail to Go to Prison

by Anne Laurie|  March 1, 20242:40 am| 59 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., Excellent Links, Grifters Gonna Grift, Open Threads, Our Failed Media Experiment, Schadenfreude

FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried's lawyer asks judge to reject 100-year recommended sentence https://t.co/Wxkkt68Ka6

— The Associated Press (@AP) February 28, 2024

One can’t say this defence is totally worthless, since it has provided some salutatory content for us plebes. Molly White, at her Citation Needed newsletter, on “I am Sam’s low-level culpability”:

Sam Bankman-Fried’s sentencing is coming up in a month. He has now formally swapped out Mark Cohen and the rest of his rather unimpressive defense team for Mukasey Young [I49]. Concerns over potential conflicts of interest stemming from their simultaneous representation of Celsius’s Alex Mashinsky have been formally acknowledged by both Bankman-Fried and Mashinsky, and both have waived the potential conflicts. It seems Mukasey Young is mostly focusing on Bankman-Fried’s sentencing, because he’s hired a separate attorney — former prosecutor Alexandra Shapiro — to focus on his inevitable post-sentence appeal.

Mukasey and team have been busy on the sentencing side of things, on February 27 filing a 100-page-long sentencing memorandum that ends with a request that Bankman-Fried be sentenced to only 63–78 months imprisonment (5½ to 6½ years). The filing contains a long rebuttal to the as-yet-unfiled pre-sentencing report, which Bankman-Fried’s legal team says recommends he serve 100 years in prison. They describe such a sentence as “grotesque” and “barbaric”, and the kind that should be reserved only for “heinous conduct” like mass murder.

The filing also contains a glowing description of Bankman-Fried, starting at his early life, with headings like “Sam Is Not Motivated By Greed,” “Sam’s Caring For Individuals”, and “Sam’s Remorse”…

A final section on “Sam’s Condition” outlines Bankman-Fried’s neurodiversity, and says that he has already been suffering in jail as a result of harassment from other inmates, poor food options as a result of his vegan diet, and the generally grim conditions of MDC Brooklyn…

Bankman-Fried’s veganism comes up… a lot. Like a lot. In this sort of “ah, well your honor, I know he committed one of the largest financial crimes in history, but have you considered that he is a vegan?” way. One fellow effective altruist and vegan, David Pearce, writes of Bankman-Fried’s veganism: “here we have a person who (literally) wouldn’t hurt a fly incarcerated in a place that wasn’t built for folk with such soft hearts”. [Footnote: He would for sure steal all a fly’s money, though.] I actually found myself looking up if Judge Lewis Kaplan is himself vegan, because it’s so (excuse my phrasing) hamfisted that I wondered if it was an attempt to appeal to a bias of his.My guess is that so many of the letter-writers are effective altruists and vegans themselves that they see it as an impeccable testament to his character, and don’t realize others don’t necessarily assign it the same moral value. That, or they realize that “vegan” is a convenient way to signal “white, wealthy, and well-connected” without having to say it. Probably both…

 
Jeff John Roberts, at Fortune, on “Sam Bankman-Fried’s final con game”:

If you are a 31-year-old who is charged with major crimes, the normal course of action is to take a plea deal in order to reduce the sentence, and then hope for the best before the judge. You will probably also resign yourself to spending decades in prison. Unless you are rich and connected, of course. Then you may try a different strategy.

Take Sam Bankman-Fried. Even though he faced a mountain of evidence showing he committed one of the biggest frauds in U.S. history, he chose to roll the dice on a three-week trial. For his trouble, Bankman-Fried got rung up by a jury in less than four hours. And now that he faces a maximum sentence of 100 years or more when he goes before a judge next month, he is doing something else only wealthy and entitled people can do. He is trying to spin his way out of the whole mess…

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As the New York Times reported on Tuesday night, Bankman-Fried has hired “a new lawyer known for courtroom showmanship” and another high-flying attorney to work on a long-shot appeal. He also has his law professor parents—the Bay Area power couple known as “Barb and Joe” to fellow denizens of Stanford’s campus—working on legal issues, and arranging a sympathy campaign to show why everyone is wrong about the poor lad.

All of this is a “long-shot strategy orchestrated by Mr. Bankman-Fried’s family and friends to reverse his conviction and engineer a public reappraisal of his leadership at FTX.” The Times doesn’t acknowledge it is a vehicle for this strategy—as evidenced by Bankman-Fried’s team waiting for its sympathetic article to drop before filing a trove of letters and arguments in court to amplify their position. Nor does its article raise the awkward question of how the Bankman-Fried clan is paying for those gold-plated lawyers and a PR firm whose monthly retainers start at $50,000.

The likely answer is that Bankman-Fried’s parents are footing the bills with the help of $10 million they pressed him to pay his father for legal work—money that came from the treasuries of the crypto companies that collapsed under a mountain of fraud. This is bad enough but even more obnoxious when you read things like this: “His lawyers said Bankman-Fried wasn’t motivated by greed but by a desire to better the world through philanthropic giving. Material items and extravagance did nothing for him, they said.”…

All of this makes the parents’ current attempt to “engineer a public reappraisal” of their Sam so galling. They remind us at all turns how Sam should not be punished for robbing his customers because he is on the spectrum or because he has been the victim of cruel media caricatures. And so on. What they won’t say is that Sam is a 31-year-old man who grew up with every privilege in the world, and has shown every indication of being a liar and a sociopath.

You can’t fault Barb and Joe for doing all they can to protect their child. Any parent would do the same. But if they really wanted to show their love and help their son, they could—just once—stop telling Sam how special he is.

Some criminals are just incorrigible…

SBF still pushing Solana behind bars

At some point you have to respect the hustle pic.twitter.com/Qm3khgdRtM

— Morning Brew ☕️ (@MorningBrew) February 29, 2024

Late Night Open Thread: His Parents Say Sam Bankman-Fried Is Too <del>Pretty</del> Frail to Go to PrisonPost + Comments (59)

Open Thread: Closing Out Black History Month…

by Anne Laurie|  February 29, 20249:25 pm| 60 Comments

This post is in: Justice, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Racial Justice

BREAKING: Senators Durbin, Warnock, Schumer, Booker, Blumenthal, Butler reintroduce the John R. Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act.

The bill would update and restore critical safeguards of the original Voting Rights Act.

— Senate Judiciary Committee (@JudiciaryDems) February 29, 2024

… With a BANG!

The battle for the soul of America has many fronts, but the freedom to vote is fundamental.

Today, as the John R. Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act is reintroduced in the Senate, our call to protect the sacred right to vote is renewed.

Congress, send this bill to my desk.

— President Biden (@POTUS) March 1, 2024

?? pic.twitter.com/DzsfCDHFQJ

— PoliticsforPArents (@PennsylvaniaPa7) February 29, 2024

Black unemployment is at a record low.

President @JoeBiden and I are investing in a future where everyone can thrive. pic.twitter.com/yIyJ2A10jN

— Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) February 29, 2024

You may write me down in history
With your bitter, twisted lies,
You may trod me in the very dirt
But still, like dust, we'll rise.

Just like moons and like suns,
With the certainty of tides,
Just like hopes springing high,
Still we'll rise. pic.twitter.com/xeqV52bEI9

— Cory Booker (@CoryBooker) February 29, 2024

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Black History Month is considered one of the nation’s oldest organized history celebrations, and has been recognized by U.S. presidents for decades through proclamations and celebrations.

Here are four things to know about its origins. pic.twitter.com/yXAhG3O7au

— The Associated Press (@AP) February 28, 2024

During Black History Month, we tell the stories of the heroes of our past — upon whose broad shoulders we stand — and the heroes of the present, who create history every day while shaping our future. pic.twitter.com/G3mqbQWg3F

— Vice President Kamala Harris (@VP) February 13, 2024

History is being made at the 2024 Democratic National Convention! @ShowStrategy, led by President and CEO Glenn Charles Jr., is the first Black-owned firm to serve as prime contractor for a major political convention. #BlackHistoryMonth pic.twitter.com/wz9uX25OOl

— 2024 Democratic National Convention (@DemConvention) February 28, 2024

Salome Agbaroji, our 2023 Poet Laureate, is nothing shy of remarkable.

When I heard she’d be in the building taking meetings, I couldn’t the resist the chance to say hi. pic.twitter.com/TtmmqUZLf0

— President Biden (@POTUS) February 26, 2024

Black History Places
I admit to being both startled & sad when I first saw this. I’d heard of a few of the places listed but had no idea frankly how widespread & common place it was for entire Black towns to be terrorized & even burned to the ground. Pick your PLACE & research it pic.twitter.com/3YFaCdsvmt

— Michelle_BYoung (@michelle_byoung) February 8, 2024

VIDEO: President Biden hosts a reception at the White House for Black History Month, featuring artist Tank. pic.twitter.com/q9Rsk6fCzg

— Jonah Elkowitz (@jonahelkowitz) February 6, 2024

This Black History Month, our Administration hosted the first-ever White House Afro-Latino Diaspora event.

Hear from Gina Torres on the importance of representation in the Afro-Latino community, and celebrating the community’s contributions and culture. pic.twitter.com/rz25Uom2x2

— The White House (@WhiteHouse) February 29, 2024

Happy black history month @VP because you’re living breathing history ?? pic.twitter.com/DIJ4vJuvXV

— 2RawTooReal (@2RawTooReal) February 1, 2024

As Black History Month begins, I'm reminded of Amelia Boynton's reflection on Bloody Sunday.

"You can never know where you're going unless you know where you've been."

This month, let's remember where we've been and recognize that our only way forward is by marching together.

— President Biden (@POTUS) February 1, 2024

Black History is American History.

Let’s all continue our march toward a more perfect union.

Together.

— Hakeem Jeffries (@RepJeffries) February 1, 2024

we are and always will be the blueprint https://t.co/obTWZ0FVLI

— Nerdy Wonka (@NerdyWonka) July 27, 2023

Mychal in his NEW JOB already KILLING IT! ?????????? https://t.co/5XRHxswSEU

— Michelle_BYoung (@michelle_byoung) February 29, 2024

Open Thread: Closing Out Black History Month…Post + Comments (60)

War for Ukraine Day 736: Ukraine Downs Three More Russian SU-34s While Putin Rattles His Brittle Saber

by Adam L Silverman|  February 29, 20247:12 pm| 36 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

The House has passed another short term stepped CR to get through to 8 and 22 MAR 2024, when the appropriators are supposed to have completed their bills in both chambers and have them ready for votes. Now we see which member, if any, of the GOP minority caucus in the Senate decides to hold things up there using procedural gimmicks or whether this passes the Senate quickly and keeps the government open past tomorrow.

The Ukrainians downed three more SU-34s today.

February is the shortest month of the year, but our sky defenders have achieved the greatest results in downing russian jets since October 2022.

The Ukrainian Air Force destroyed:
◾️ten Su-34 fighter-bombers
◾️two Su-35 fighters
◾️one A-50 long-range radar detection and control… pic.twitter.com/jZ302fRxHF

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) February 29, 2024

February is the shortest month of the year, but our sky defenders have achieved the greatest results in downing russian jets since October 2022.

The Ukrainian Air Force destroyed:
◾️ten Su-34 fighter-bombers
◾️two Su-35 fighters
◾️one A-50 long-range radar detection and control aircraft.

It seems like being a russian military plane pilot is the worst job in the world.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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A world in which terror wins would please no one, which is exactly why Putin must lose – address by the President of Ukraine.

29 February 2024 – 19:09

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

First. A few summaries of the visits. The key thing is new defense agreements, new packages. There will be more artillery and more joint production with our partners. We use every meeting and every day to provide more capabilities to our warriors. I am grateful to all our partners who help us in the way we need. And in a timely manner, without delays.

We had good talks in Albania – as always, principled support. And not only in terms of our bilateral relations, but also in terms of how to make the dialogue with those states that are still reserved in their support more meaningful. Mr. Prime Minister Rama, thank you once again.

This was already the second Ukraine – South East Europe Summit. We had good meetings with representatives of Croatia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Moldova, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Serbia. I shouldn’t disclose all the details now, but I can say that we managed to achieve exactly what we expected. In addition, all the participants of the summit, all the countries of Southeastern Europe, will take part in the Global Peace Summit – the first summit on the Peace Formula at the level of leaders. It is planned to be held in Switzerland. And we already see opportunities for broad representation of countries from around the world.

It was about a just peace, about the first summit of leaders on the Peace Formula, about the opportunities in the world today to decrease chaos and destruction that the Crown Prince and I talked about in Saudi Arabia. It was a very profound, positive conversation. I am grateful for the attention to Ukraine and for the advice. We need to ensure the widest possible participation of the global community in addressing global issues. The restoration of the full force of international law and the prevention of aggression is exactly that kind of issue. We also talked about joint economic and technological projects with Saudi Arabia. We appreciate such cooperation. And it is important that our teams implement project agreements as quickly as possible. Both of our countries will benefit from this.

Today, I also held a meeting on the European direction – our relations with the European Union, the tasks for this year, integration in general, and specifically on relations with our neighbors in the European Union. Our priority is clear: all existing agreements must be implemented, and every word that is spoken must be put into practice. This is exactly the approach Ukraine is taking on the European direction. And it is thanks to this that we have already achieved historic results.

This year should be a time of real negotiations on accession. We can start as early as spring and take the first negotiating steps. This year should also be a time of maximum pragmatism in relations with our neighbors. Everyone sees that Russia is not going to stop. They in Moscow want an arms race and new waves of destabilization. All of us in Europe need to realize this clearly. If the freedom of one falls, the freedom of all the others will not withstand either. This is the reality. We have to defend ourselves. And we can defend ourselves. We must achieve our common goals.

I thank everyone who helps!

I thank everyone who is at combat posts, on combat missions, in battle right now. Krasnohorivka, Novomykhailivka, Kupyansk, Bakhmut sector, Avdiivka sector, and the Southern sectors. It is worth remembering that global stability rests solely on the courage and dedication of Ukrainian warriors and our entire nation. It is Ukrainian names that are mentioned in the frontline reports, but everyone understands and sees that Putin’s intentions are much broader. A world in which terror wins would please no one, which is exactly why Putin must lose. Our people in Ukraine are capable of ensuring this – with sufficient support. Support with what the world already has in its weapons depots, in the norms of international law, and in the minds of its leaders.

Glory and gratitude to all our heroes! May the memory of each of our warriors – every Ukrainian man and woman who gave their lives for the sake of Ukraine – be bright and eternal.

Glory to Ukraine!

The last 12 hours of the calendar winter… and not a single blackout due to Russian missile attacks this time around in Kyiv and the entire Ukraine.

We've made it through the second winter of war.
A small yet inspiring victory for us all!

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) February 29, 2024

With few small exceptions, Kyiv avoided city-wide loss of power, gas, water this winter & was largely successful in defending its sky from Russian air attacks. As Ambo Brink says below, it’s large part due to US aid — when it comes. Then Ukrainians who know how to put it to use. https://t.co/2X86KrnpzZ

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) February 29, 2024

As winter slowly gives way to spring, the question is will US aid come.

While the US aid is in limbo, please help Ukraine withstand the ongoing invasion by donating to this charity:https://t.co/JAF2n4bqBZ

— Maksym Filipenko 🏳️‍🌈 (@MaksymDraws) February 29, 2024

Rep. Houlahan: Last evening when I left votes, it was dark and raining, and I was intercepted by people with Ukrainian flags, and one had a sign that said “It’s 1939 again.” And it really struck me, because it really is. https://t.co/aA67x878Il

— Ostap Yarysh (@OstapYarysh) February 29, 2024

.@secdef: "Without our support, the Ukrainians will be outgunned in terms of artillery, and they'll also be at risk because of lack of adaquate air defense."

— Nick Schifrin (@nickschifrin) February 29, 2024

Germany:

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1763309818499006538

Chancellor Olaf Scholz has just clarified his reasons for denying a delivery of Taurus KEPD-350 to #Ukraine. He speaks of the possibility of hitting specific targets in Moscow if the weapon is mishandled, and therefore Germany would need to “participate”, without going into details.

He also repeats his statement that others (France and/or Great Britain) have made sure that they know exactly where and how their weapons (SCALP-EG and Storm Shadow) are being used. This time, however, he does not mention any soldiers on Ukrainian soil.

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1763311953726877944

France:

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1763160890994577877

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1763161315118391531

More from The Financial Times:

France and Germany’s public spat over military support to Ukraine is exacerbating arguments delaying an agreement to pump €5bn into the EU’s fund for weapon shipments, as they bicker over separate demands regarding its rules.

Context: The European Peace Facility (EPF), funded by the bloc’s 27 members outside of the EU budget, partly reimburses capitals for weapons provided to Kyiv. It is overdrawn and needs replenishing.

At a meeting of EU ambassadors yesterday, France continued to demand the EPF only reimburse weapons manufactured in the EU or Norway, arguing that EU money spent to help Ukraine should simultaneously develop the bloc’s defence industry, not third countries’.

But other countries, including Italy, Poland and Finland, want more flexibility, arguing that Ukraine’s ammunition needs are critical and EU producers can’t meet them.

France’s objection comes despite President Emmanuel Macron vowing to support a separate Czech-led initiative to buy artillery shells from outside the EU.

“We will mobilise bilateral financing as well as multilateral,” Macron said. But while he supports (bilaterally) using French cash to buy non-EU materiel, he is blocking others using EU cash to (multilaterally) do the same.

French officials counter that the Czech idea is a short-term fix, and the EPF should remain strategic.

“Certainly, let’s prioritise ‘buy European’,” said one EU diplomat involved in the negotiations. “But let’s not cut off our nose to spite our face.”

Separately, Germany argues the (substantial) value of its bilateral military donations should cancel out its share of the €5bn top-up.

Given Germany contributes about a quarter of the EPF’s funding, other member states oppose this offset demand because it would significantly reduce its liquidity.

The wider context here is the acrimonious war of words between Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Macron’s Monday remark that he “could not rule out” western troops deploying in Ukraine was immediately rebuffed by Berlin, who shot back that Paris should instead send more weapons.

Berlin is the EU’s biggest military supporter of Ukraine by a vast margin. It has vowed to send €7.1bn in 2024, and is increasingly irritated by Paris’ far smaller pledges.

“Macron’s ‘troops’ stunt was about portraying him as a staunch defender of Kyiv and distracting from the money,” said another frustrated EU diplomat. “It has infuriated the Germans.”

Officials caught in the crossfire remain confident of an agreement before the March 21 EU leaders’ summit. But most reckon that while the German issue should be resolvable with creative accounting — a Brussels speciality — France’s ideological stance may only be solved by someone backing down.

These two schmucks in Paris and Berlin are going to ensure that Czech President Pavel is never going to be able to secure the funding from his EU partners to purchase the 155mm rounds he has found in order to send them to Ukraine.

If Ukraine loses this war, it will not be lost in the Donbas or on the Dnipro, it will be lost in Washington DC, Paris, and Berlin!

This Russian abetted crap on the Polish side of the Ukrainian border isn’t helping either:

Yesterday, there was a backlash from the Polish community for me saying that Polish actions on the border are equaling cooperation with Russia. While many Poles got very angry, the voices of many Ukrainians remained unheard in Poland for a long time. When a group of small,…

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) February 29, 2024

Yesterday, there was a backlash from the Polish community for me saying that Polish actions on the border are equaling cooperation with Russia. While many Poles got very angry, the voices of many Ukrainians remained unheard in Poland for a long time. When a group of small, pro-Kremlin stooges mixed with justly concerned farmers engaged in illegal actions, vandalizing grain in a country with wheat and a blue sky on its banner, which went through Holodomor, and where throwing away bread is a cultural taboo, it was an act of sacrilege. They were not only blocking grain but also blocking a lot of unrelated goods from private funds and volunteers – like drone parts, vehicles, tourniquets, and many other goods for the frontline.

Before moving forward, I want to note that Ukrainians are extremely thankful and won’t forget the help provided by Poland, as well as the personal acts of Polish volunteers and regular people who aided millions of Ukrainian refugees, far outweighing the harm done by an unrepresentative group of people. I am grateful to the Polish people for the support provided. That being said, gratitude doesn’t grant immunity from criticism, nor does it cancel the fact that Poland, as a state (excluding countless individual acts of kindness), pursues its strategic interests and deals with an existential threat from the East that openly doubts Polish statehood. You know, as I know, that if Ukraine falls and gets occupied, you will have another border with Russia – a nightmare scenario for all of us.

As an individual (I am not an elected official or representative), I think the concerns of Polish farmers are legitimate. I understand this is a real problem for some individuals facing imminent income loss compared to the theoretical occupation of Ukraine in a few years. But I fail to see how the destruction of grain from the sealed train headed to Morocco, playing air raid sirens to buses with women and children fleeing the war, or the blockade of non-agricultural goods helps the situation. The biggest problem is that my words comparing such actions to Russian actions have sparked a much larger argument and smear campaign than the actions of these people, whom even Polish people are calling Kremlin puppets!

You rightfully say that my words hurt you, but the actions of these people hurt Ukrainians for months, and many of you remained silent and ignored that millions of Ukrainians felt betrayed – a backstab from a friend is always the most painful.

I don’t hold a grudge against Polish people, but just as you love your country, I love mine, and if bringing attention to the problem required me to say unpleasant things, so be it. I won’t apologize for my words, nor do I expect an apology from those who insulted me and felt that my words were unjust

It’s up to you to decide whether the discord should continue, but the problem needs mutual addressing. I will refrain from comparing Polish actions with Russian actions in the future, as this is unjust and not helpful, but in return, I ask you to spend just as much energy on Russian stooges in your country, as you spent on me.

The Avdiivka front:

Close range combat between a Ukrainian tank and a Russian BMP. Avdiivka front. pic.twitter.com/G6Tm5Y0eHQ

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) February 29, 2024

 

Putin gave his state of nation address today. It was long, stultifying, and bellicose all at the same time.

“We also have weapons that can strike targets on their territory,” Putin added. He said western supplies of advanced weaponry and the prospect of a Nato troop deployment risked nuclear conflict. @maxseddon
https://t.co/A6x6hEwiUo

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) February 29, 2024

In case you are wondering when human civilization is going to be wiped out, Putin moved on from that about half an hour ago and has mostly been rattling on about modest payments to mothers

— max seddon (@maxseddon) February 29, 2024

The Financial Times has details:

Vladimir Putin has said that western support for Ukraine risks triggering a global war, in his most explicit threat to use nuclear weapons since he ordered the full-scale invasion of Ukraine two years ago.

In his state of the nation speech on Thursday, the Russian president told the country’s political elite that claims his country intended to attack Europe were “nonsense”.

But he said any increase in western support for Ukraine “really risks a conflict using nuclear weapons, which means the destruction of all of civilisation”.

Referring to French President Emmanuel Macron’s refusal to rule out sending western troops to Ukraine this week, Putin said Russia remembered “the fate of those who once sent their contingents to our country.

“Now the consequences for possible interveners will be much more tragic,” he added. “We also have weapons that can strike targets on their territory.”

Putin said that western supplies of advanced weaponry and the prospect of a Nato troop deployment risked provoking nuclear conflict. “They think this is some kind of game. They are blinded by their own superiority complex,” he said.

The EU on Thursday said Putin’s threat with nuclear weapons was “absolutely unacceptable and inappropriate” as he was the one who started the war in Ukraine and “advancing instability in the wider region”.

Ahead of the Russian president’s expected re-election, “he is deceiving the nation” and reviving “repression that resembles Stalinist times”, said the European Commission.

The Kremlin had billed Putin’s speech as a road map for the next six years of his rule ahead of Russia’s presidential elections next month. After 24 years in power, he faces no credible challengers, having quashed most opposition and outlawed dissent.

Pro-Kremlin cinema owners across the country held free screenings of the speech, which began at midday in Moscow and revealed how far the war in Ukraine and the strategic rivalry with the west has consumed Putin’s attention.

“They need some dependent, declining, dying space where they can do whatever they want,” Putin said of the west. “They want to do to Russia what they have done in many regions of the world, including Ukraine — to bring discord into our house and weaken us from the inside.”

Putin confirmed Russia would beef up troop deployments on its border with Nato countries to “neutralise threats” created by Sweden and Finland joining the alliance following his invasion of Ukraine.

Although Putin said Russia was prepared to hold arms control talks with the US, which have in effect collapsed since the full-scale invasion, he made it clear Russia was also interested in increasing its ability to strike western countries.

He boasted that the country’s nuclear forces were ready for use, and added that work would soon conclude on new weapons systems, which he has claimed are essentially impossible to shoot down.

“We are dealing with a state whose ruling circles are taking openly hostile actions against us,” said Putin. “They are planning in all seriousness to discuss strategic stability with us while simultaneously, as they say themselves, trying to inflict a strategic defeat on us on the battlefield.”

Denying US claims that Russia plans to deploy a nuclear weapon in space, Putin accused the west of trying to “drag us into an arms race, repeating the trick they played with the Soviet Union in the 1980s” when the USSR overspent on its military, hastening its collapse in 1991.

He said Russia would work to “create the outlines for equal and inseparable security in Eurasia”, adding that “without a sovereign, strong Russia, no stable world order is possible”.

William Alberque, a director at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said Putin’s attempts at nuclear coercion were designed to scare the west into limiting its support for Kyiv at a crucial point in the war.

“He hopes by escalating threats, he can instil restraint or hesitation in western leaders making decisions on how to support Ukraine,” said Alberque.

But Russian analysts said the frequency with which Putin has resorted to nuclear threats risked making them less effective.

Andrei Kolesnikov, a Moscow-based senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that despite Putin’s rhetoric, the Kremlin was wary of nuclear conflict.

“They do not want and are afraid of nuclear war,” he said, adding that “nuclear blackmail” had become pro forma for Putin.

More at the link.

Three reasons why Putin may bring this up now so clearly:

– Pushing back against Macron's assertive language
– Targeting Scholz who continues to display fear at every opportunity
– Playing into Trump's hands

=> dividing and weakening the West, diminishing support for Ukraine https://t.co/XUL1kZWdc0

— Ulrich Speck (@ulrichspeck) February 29, 2024

As I’ve written repeatedly, Russia’s nuclear weapons use doctrine is misinformation and agitprop intended to, per their doctrine for setting the theater of operations, achieve dominance via shaping the information domain prior to ever beginning operations in the actual world.  It always has been and always be smoke and mirrors.

Speaking of Russian nuclear weapons strategy and policy, you may have seen reporting or social media posts that a bunch of leaked documents raised worrying new concerns about what Putin might be planning. Turns out it is not something that should trouble the sleep of the residents of Lawrence, KS.

https://twitter.com/dtc94133/status/1762948412625105204

https://twitter.com/dtc94133/status/1762949398945010119

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

Sometimes I pretend I'm just a dog 😅 pic.twitter.com/Rjh5qqV0ki

— Patron (@PatronDsns) February 29, 2024

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 736: Ukraine Downs Three More Russian SU-34s While Putin Rattles His Brittle SaberPost + Comments (36)

Sorry, Another Boebert Kid Update

by @heymistermix.com|  February 29, 20246:23 pm| 150 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Eighteen and horrible:

The felony charges that Representative Lauren Boebert’s eighteen-year-old son, Tyler, got hit with on Tuesday, February 27, stem from a series of car thefts in Rifle, where he and some underage friends robbed several people, including a woman with a brain tumor who said she had just $75 “left to her name,” according to police.

Tyler was allegedly part of a four person crime ring with two female minors and another male minor (Tyler’s 18, so not a minor).  One of the minor females “supposedly made a sex tape” with Tyler, according to an affadavit. In addition to allegedly stealing from a woman with a brain tumor, they took credit cards from parked cars and bought $717 worth of clothes on fast fashion site Shein, as well as spending a bunch of money at Kum & Go (a convenience store) and Love’s (a truck stop).

Updated to add:  John Fetterman is a better person than me.

Sorry, Another Boebert Kid UpdatePost + Comments (150)

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