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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Anne Laurie is a fucking hero in so many ways. ~ Betty Cracker

the 10% who apparently lack object permanence

Seems like a complicated subject, have you tried yelling at it?

The poor and middle-class pay taxes, the rich pay accountants, the wealthy pay politicians.

Our messy unity will be our strength.

Our job is not to persuade republicans but to defeat them.

Fight for a just cause, love your fellow man, live a good life.

Second rate reporter says what?

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Everything is totally normal and fine!!!

Take hopelessness and turn it into resilience.

Do we throw up our hands or do we roll up our sleeves? (hint, door #2)

Too often we hand the biggest microphones to the cynics and the critics who delight in declaring failure.

Why is it so hard for them to condemn hate?

Reality always gets a vote in the end.

A thin legal pretext to veneer over their personal religious and political desires.

They don’t have outfits that big. nor codpieces that small.

Their boy Ron is an empty plastic cup that will never know pudding.

You passed on an opportunity to be offended? What are you even doing here?

Russian mouthpiece, go fuck yourself.

Authoritarian republicans are opposed to freedom for the rest of us.

If you tweet it in all caps, that makes it true!

… pundit janitors mopping up after the gop

Tide comes in. Tide goes out. You can’t explain that.

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Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

Open Threads

You are here: Home / Archives for Open Threads

Blooms and Bums (Open Thread)

by Betty Cracker|  January 29, 20241:05 pm| 128 Comments

This post is in: Garden Chats, Open Threads, Politics

I’m in charge of fauna in our household. Bill handles the flora. He’s the landscaper and gardener who has been nurturing seedlings for peppers, cucumbers, eggplants, tomatoes, etc., for more than a month now.

But in December 2022, someone gave me a flowering phalaenopsis orchid, and it was so pretty I decided to see if I could not only keep it alive but maybe get it to flower again. A year and change later, success!

budding orchid with one bloom

After the initial blooms dropped off, I repotted it. It got a spike before the holidays, then acquired buds that stubbornly refused to open. According to Google, it may have been because I was protecting it from the cold a little too well. It lives on the porch, but I was whisking it indoors when the temps dropped below 60 F.

Apparently exposing it to temps in the 50s triggers blooms. I left it out one night and voila! I probably should have saved this for a garden chat, but I was so excited I had to share.

***

Now for the bums portion of the post. I thought Donald Trump had a planet-sized ego, and he does, but Joe Manchin’s self-regard is similarly scaled, and I’m not sure he has Trump’s excuse of being a deranged narcissist with a compulsion to cultivate external validation lest he confront the existential truth of his own utter worthlessness. Or maybe he does, I dunno:

CNN — Sen. Joe Manchin says he “absolutely” can see himself as president…

You don’t say…

In public, during stops in states such as New Hampshire, South Carolina and Georgia, Manchin says he believes there’s a role for him as a national icon in the “fiscally responsible and socially compassionate” middle, comparable with the role Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders plays for the progressive left…

We already have “a national icon in the ‘fiscally responsible and socially compassionate’ middle” — he lives at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue in D.C. He is reducing the debt that exploded under Trump and doing what he can to protect people’s rights in states run by members of the fascist cult party.

Manchin is hoping to get a meeting with Biden to urge the president to change the way he’s campaigning – for example, to focus more on how inflation declined after the more fiscally constrained Inflation Reduction Act that he forced Biden to retrench; or to talk less about climate change and more about energy security…

So Joe Biden — who was a U.S. senator for as long as he wanted the job because he kept getting reelected, who was twice elected VP and who beat an incumbent president to earn the top job — is supposed to listen to Paw-Paw BlackLung, who is retiring now because his home state’s governor, a folksy buffoon whose primary asset is Babydog, was definitely going to bounce Manchin out of his senate seat?

As Biden tries to assert the success of his presidency, Manchin says he shaped “everything” in the president’s agenda. In an interview with CNN as he drove in New Hampshire, Manchin said the country would have been worse off if he hadn’t used the 50-50 Senate to force Biden to do things his way, arguing, “The way it was presented and the way it ended up are two different things.”

Good lord, what an egotistical prick. It sucks that someone from the fascist cult party will replace him, but I look forward to the day when no one gives a shit what Joe Manchin thinks anymore. I hope he wilts like a neglected orchid when denied the attention he so desperately craves.

Open thread.

Blooms and Bums (Open Thread)Post + Comments (128)

Low Characters, Low Stakes Open Thread: Update on the Grifter Primaries

by Anne Laurie|  January 29, 20241:15 am| 61 Comments

This post is in: 2024 Primaries, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Schadenfreude

Sources close to Donald Trump reached out to Robert F. Kennedy Jr. about serving as the presidential candidate’s running mate, per a new report by the New York Post.https://t.co/YfQt9ZNsoO

— The Daily Beast (@thedailybeast) January 27, 2024


Translation: Sources currently promoting one or both of these candidates try to bait Our Very Serious Horse-Race Media into breathlessly speculating on which camp first contacted the other. The NYPost gave them a mercy quote, because that kind of earned media is their jam.
======

My personal favorite 2024 primary chewtoy, not having the best week:

They at least stayed and ate their food when Bernie visited the churches in South Carolina. https://t.co/hDbCCrGvaV

— Ragnarok Lobster (@eclecticbrotha) January 28, 2024

Narrator: Even with all the time in the world, Dean Phillips would be crushed like the non-entity he is in SC. https://t.co/RBTIzx8TCg

— Receipt Maven (@receiptmaven) January 28, 2024

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Can I be frank- I was waiting for this and whats to come out of Michigan

Wait until he walks a union hall. Wait until he goes to a black church. Wait until he interviews for ethnic media

He won’t listen and that Wall Street world he is listening to has more money than sense https://t.co/ylA8fPoF3E

— Democrat, Environmentalist, & the establishment (@BlueSteelDC) January 26, 2024

Losing to a write in campaign wasn't embarrassing enough, he wants to be embarrassed in more states https://t.co/7yd0UYKLD0

— vocational politics appreciation account (@Convolutedname) January 24, 2024

45 seconds of Stephen Colbert roasting ‘sore loser’ — Dean Phillips. ?? pic.twitter.com/yAVBvHS80q

— Christopher Webb (@cwebbonline) January 25, 2024

Verdict from a professional:

I don’t know whether Dean is going to lose big tonight or not. But this clip is a good and humorous reminder that Dean is big old hunk of crap whos twisted and turned himself into a pretty much Trumper because of this ridiculous campaign he’s run. Just a valueless asswipe. https://t.co/PTFzoBCbDX

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) January 23, 2024

======
No Ethics Labels!

Because Mark Penn and Nancy Jacobson are unscrupulous people and nobody with any integrity (and I’m not saying Hogan or Manchin have any either) hangs around in their orbit at this point. https://t.co/U6JfOCp5CM

— Clean Observer (@Hammbear2024) January 28, 2024

That _Joe Manchin_ can see Joe Manchin as president is not news. https://t.co/Sf6iC6fll8

— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) January 28, 2024

The cool thing about this straw argument is that if people like Larry Hogan (or the reporters who fellate him) were legitimately interested in a President who has chalked up lots of bipartisan agreements, there is already one living in the White House right now. https://t.co/Xupe79IVau

— scary lawyerguy (@scarylawyerguy) January 24, 2024

It's amazing how big these people's egos are to delude themselves into thinking a 3rd party candidate could win the presidency. Consider: the best showing from a 3rd party candidate of all time was 2nd by Theodore Roosevelt, & he was a past president. Even w/that, he couldn't win https://t.co/Na149pmGtF

— Brian Rosenwald (@brianros1) January 28, 2024

======

Cue the healing crystals!

The grifting will continue until morality improves. https://t.co/C0ppKsvh04

— Ragnarok Lobster (@eclecticbrotha) January 26, 2024

This is the kind of well run campaign that gets under 5% against Dean Phillips and a Joe Biden write in campaign. https://t.co/1h2skzwykL

— Sean (@demsocsean) January 26, 2024

Marianne says volunteers keep telling her to call Taylor swift for help

— memes (@OrganizerMemes) January 26, 2024


Low Characters, Low Stakes Open Thread: Update on the Grifter Primaries
======

And, descending to levels where the grift is so obvious it’s barely veiled…

I believe that immigrants should be able to run for president after the Constitution is changed, in part so that Cenk can get 0.000001% of the vote and we could all laugh at him.

— James Palmer (@BeijingPalmer) January 24, 2024

Fresh off managing RFK Jr.'s campaign (hear they parted on not great terms) Dennis Kucinich, 77, is trying to mount a comeback for an OH congressional seat. pic.twitter.com/zFea35FKxQ

— Alex Seitz-Wald (@aseitzwald) January 22, 2024

Low Characters, Low Stakes Open Thread: Update on the Grifter PrimariesPost + Comments (61)

War for Ukraine Day 704: A Brief Sunday Night Update

by Adam L Silverman|  January 28, 20246:57 pm| 19 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

The crest of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense. A wine colored cross on a silver shield with the gold Uktainian Tryzub in the center on a circular blue medallion. A pair of silver maces and an upright sword are between the blue medallion and the wine colored cross.

We’re just going to cover the basics tonight since I did the update for the other war earlier today.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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It is due to our warriors that the world keeps the faith in Ukraine – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

28 January 2024 – 21:07

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

A few things are worth mentioning today.

First of all, gratitude to all our warriors. To everyone who is now in positions, in combat, at combat posts, on combat missions along the entire front line – from Kupyansk to Krynky. To everyone who is recovering from wounds. And to everyone who trains to join the ranks of Ukraine’s Defense and Security Forces. Today, I would like to especially recognize our border guards – the warriors from the units of the Border Guard Service of Ukraine, who are not only defending our state border, but also fighting alongside everyone else in various areas of the front. The Steel Frontier Brigade – tough warriors. They are defending Kharkiv region in the Kupyansk direction. I am very thankful to all of you.

I would also like to mention the efficiency of Soldiers Artem Tsapliuk and Ihor Kamenetskyi, Junior Sergeants Yurii Popish and Yaroslav Sholom, and Lieutenant Colonel Valerii Havryliuk. Thank you, guys, for your skillful actions! The warriors of the Luhansk Border Guard Detachment – the Revenge Brigade – strong warriors, they are back on the front line, in the Lyman and Bakhmut directions. I am especially grateful to Soldier Yevhen Serdiuk for his courage and Senior Sergeant Kyrylo Chumachenko for his personal efficiency. Maryinka area – the Rapid Response Border Commandant’s Service of the Zhytomyr Detachment: I thank all of you, our warriors, for your accuracy and destruction of Russian equipment. And I would like to especially recognize Junior Sergeant Pavlo Shevchuk and Sergeant Radion Blashko – well done, guys! Each personal result in this war is the result of the whole of Ukraine. Because it is the personal results that make up the resilience of our state, our joint state capabilities and the success of Ukrainian defense.

The warriors of the 95th Separate Air Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces also deserve special gratitude. Ukraine is thankful to all of you who are always bravely defending the state. In particular, it is worth mentioning Senior Soldier Yevhenii Kuchmenko and Soldiers Mykola Mantula and Vitalii Kurdin for their combat operations. Thank you, guys, for your bravery and for your ability to really care about your brothers-in-arms! The 68th Separate Jaeger Brigade – Soldiers Anatolii Vlasiuk and Mykola Chubyk – thank you and all your brothers-in-arms for your dedication and ability to become role models for others. I would also like to mention the 100th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade and, in particular, Senior Soldier Mykola Panasenko and Staff Sergeant Oleksandr Bereznyi. These guys are so brave, so conscious, so selfless that it is due to such warriors that the world keeps the faith in Ukraine, in our ability to finish this war in the way Ukraine needs.

We already have an international communication schedule for the upcoming week that will strengthen our country. This encompasses both our standing in Europe, including our relations with the European Union and our EU neighbors, as well as international institutions tasked with upholding international law. Of course, we are preparing new defense packages for our soldiers as well. Summarizing the results of the new week, we will be able to say that Ukraine has become stronger. It is crucial that each week brings more clear agreements to our bilateral relations with partners, and more stability to defense coalitions in the supply of weapons, shells, and equipment. I am grateful to everyone in the world who helps in this way – making the agreements work, and the resilience of our warriors based on the resilience of our partners.

Glory to everyone who fights and works for Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

Greece:

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1751543526075015424

 

Greece has approved the transfer of Soviet-era air defense systems to Ukraine. The details of the military package have not been disclosed, but it is known that the country is armed with Tor, Osa, S-300 and ZU-23-2 air defense systems as well as their respective ammunition.

Source (Greek): https://kathimerini.gr/politics/foreign-policy/562853269/f-35-poies-dynatotites-xekleidonoyn-gia-tis-enoples-dynameis/…

#Greece #Ukraine

I think this is a very accurate assessment of Russia’s use of diplomatic power:

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1751672698546123226

Imma say it why Russians keep hurling in these ‘The Kremlin sends signals of peace’ messages, including via top global press.

Because it’s just music to the ears of those who are supposed to be decision-makers but are hell-bent on weaseling out of the whole thing, doing as little as possible, assuming as little responsibility as possible, and passing the consequences to whoever is next in charge.

This war is particularly a maturity test, and the free world is not looking good at it.

Still no real clarity on the downed IL-26:

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1751647847752098130

It’s been five days since Russia’s Ilyushin Il-76M crashed near Belgorod.

Still no undeniable proofs from Russia regarding 65 Ukrainian POWs on board, no international agencies on site, no clear answer if Russia had properly notified Ukraine it would transport POWs for swap on a military aircraft within a restricted air combat zone.

Avdiivka:

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1751594725608747164

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1751574903105388645

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1751532298711765085

Bakhmut:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1751749110619635799

In civilian life, “Mavka” enjoyed computer games and worked as a barista. After February 24, 2022, she joined Territorial Defence and found her calling in drones. The aerial reconnaissance unit is now operating in Bakhmut. “Mavka” shares her impressions of the Russian military, expresses her attitude to the mobilisation of women, and talks about her favorite ammunition for destroying the invaders.

Novokalinove:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1751685323233320962

Krynky, left bank of the Dnipro, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

https://twitter.com/Danspiun/status/1751609846573494731

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1751594895163183386

Magyar’s Birds finished off an earlier hit!

Kharkiv:

https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1751695478985576554

For you ATGM enthusiasts:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1751553738186031272

For you DIY enthusiasts:

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1751582234027450437

Somewhere in Russia or Russian occupied Ukraine:

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1751545888227426388

Budapest, Hungary:

https://twitter.com/HenryJFoy/status/1751712211485999592

https://twitter.com/HenryJFoy/status/1751712217580343760

https://twitter.com/HenryJFoy/status/1751712222466695580

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1751550143063597530

It is unclear if Toroczkai is claiming Zakarpattie Oblast for Hungary or just for himself.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos tonight. So here’s some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1751659149719466279

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 704: A Brief Sunday Night UpdatePost + Comments (19)

NFC Football Conference Championship (Lions vs. 49ers, Game Time 6:30 pm)

by WaterGirl|  January 28, 20246:00 pm| 170 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Sports

NFC
(3) Detroit Lions at (1) San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, Jan. 28, 6:30 p.m. ET on Fox

NFC Football Conference Championship (Lions vs. 49ers, Game Time 6:30 pm)Post + Comments (170)

For Reasons I Can’t Explain

by WaterGirl|  January 28, 20245:21 pm| 112 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

I loved this turn of phrase from Betty Cracker last week – “for reasons I can’t explain” – and thought it could make for a  fun post.

For reasons I can’t explain, I enjoy the occasional Hallmark channel movie where where a nanny or a parent with a kid going off to college falls in love with Cameron Mathison.

How about you guys?  Confession time!

For Reasons I Can’t ExplainPost + Comments (112)

The Israel-Hamas War in Gaza: No One Wins but the Spoilers

by Adam L Silverman|  January 28, 20242:59 pm| 77 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Iran, Israel, Military, Open Threads, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, Silverman on Security, War

There was a request the other night for a post on the war in Gaza. I indicated I’d try to get one done this weekend, so here we are.

There are two reasons I’ve not been doing updates on this war like I’ve done on the war for Ukraine. The first is simply time. I just don’t have the time to do two war updates a day. The second is I really don’t have a lot more to say. Since I entered grad school in 1992 I’ve written a couple of thousand pages on Israeli and Palestinian extremism, its effect on the security in Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories, its effect on the Levant, the greater Middle East, the European Command and now Central Command areas of responsibility, and US policy and strategy. Had you told 20 year old me sitting in Bruce Maddy Weitzman’s senior seminar on Middle Eastern Politics that I would, twenty-three years later, be working on the Israeli-Palestinian peace process assigned to a 3 star commander as his senior advisor, I’d have laughed at you and told you you were crazy. If you told me I’d still be writing about the conflict, even if it is just for you all here, I’d have said that was depressing.

So with that enthusiastic intro out of the way, here’s what’s going on: THE ONLY PEOPLE WINNING, THE ONLY PEOPLE BENEFITING FROM THIS WAR ARE THE SPOILERS. THE EXTREMISTS IN HAMAS AND THE ULTRA-NATIONALIST/ULTRA-RELIGIOUS ISRAELI PARTIES AND MOVEMENTS, THEIR LEADERS LIKE SINWAR, BIBI, HANIYEH, BEN-GVIR, SMOTRICH, ETC!!!! IRAN, THE PRC, AND RUSSIA!!!! AND THE ANTISEMITES, ISLAMOPHOBES, NEO-NAZIS, AND WHITE SUPREMACISTS IN THE US AND EUROPE!!!! That’s the bottom line. The Palestinians and the Israelis are not getting anything positive out of this war. They’re not getting more security or more prosperity. They’re getting nothing other than killed, wounded, and further impoverished. For the Palestinians in Gaza this means disproportionate death, injury, displacement, and being forced into further food and economic insecurity. In Israel it means emphasizing the garrison state nature of Israel combined with constant fear from Hamas and Hezbullah rocket attacks, the majority of the population of Israel’s south and north being internally displaced because of them, families mourning their 1,200 dead, constantly freaked over their relatives still held hostage, worried about their relatives called up to fight, all while the Israeli economy strains under the cost of the war. For the Palestinians in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, as well as for the Armenian-Israeli community in the Armenian Quarter, it means trying to simply keep your land from being forcibly stolen by a combination of extremist settlers, IDF personnel aiding and abetting the extremist settlers, and the police who are now controlled by Ben-Gvir a convicted terrorist without getting arrested, beaten, and/or killed.

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It isn’t even like Israel is being successful in its Gazan operations. Despite Bibi’s claims that Israel would maintain security control over all of Gaza once the war ends, Israel cannot even maintain security control over many parts of Gaza since they cleared it. Rather, the Palestinian Gazan police are back on patrol now that the Israelis have pulled back or moved to other areas of operation. The Israelis have now acknowledged they’ll never destroy Hamas’s tunnel system.

In the meantime Bibi and his surrogates and catspaws have now moved on to a new strategic objective: absolute victory even as they have to reintensify the operations in Khan Younis because what they had been doing wasn’t working.

💥Branding & merch! Top Netanyahu aide Yonatan Urich showed off his new press conference duds at Netanyahu's hectoring presser last night. https://t.co/DwXYLSGU9O

— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي (@NTarnopolsky) January 28, 2024

Bibi is now blaming the families of the hostages for his inability to defeat Hamas, and Israeli reservists as well.

💥💥💥Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu blames hostages' families for Hamas' "hardened positions" in negotiations for the captives' freedom. Think about it. https://t.co/InIz1bYlMa

— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي (@NTarnopolsky) January 27, 2024

💥🎻Ben Caspit notes that it was after @SadeYuval of @Calcalist mentioned to Netanyahu that he had just returned from 100 days of Gaza reserve duty, that Netanyahu replied "I fight Hamas and you fight the prime minister." https://t.co/Djc6kmFQAl

— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي (@NTarnopolsky) January 27, 2024

If you’re wondering how Israel commemorated International Holocaust Remembrance Day, well the police spent it assaulting and arresting protestors, including the family members of hostages, for protesting Bibi under orders of Ben-Givr. Have I mentioned he’s a convicted terrorist?

💥Five arrested in Tel Aviv protest https://t.co/WN4SsUUrcc

— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي (@NTarnopolsky) January 27, 2024

💥A Jerusalem woman is on her way to hospital with a back injury after police dragged her along King George V Street. (@nirhasson) pic.twitter.com/tHX8i6tD4e

— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي (@NTarnopolsky) January 27, 2024

💥See the degree of police force used to disperse protesters in Jerusalem (@JbareenYanal) pic.twitter.com/vKX5NpQNHB

— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي (@NTarnopolsky) January 27, 2024

The only member of the Israeli war cabinet or the Palestinian leadership that is making any sense/speaking truth to power right now is Gadi Eisenkot who has called for better diplomatic efforts and compromise  to be made to bring the hostages home. Bibi, of course, has been busy insulting everyone involved in those negotiations.

The US’s response has been all over the map. Bush 43 holdover Brett McGurk, who has somehow survived and worked his way up through two Republican and two Democratic administrations while working different parts of this problem set and the counter-ISIS problem set in a variety of special envoy appointments, despite being an attorney without formal diplomatic training or any subject matter expertise in the Middle East, has now quadrupled down on his preferred initiative: Israeli-Saudi Arabian normalization. This is now being dangled as the carrot for Bibi to agree to a two state solution. Bibi will never do that. Neither will Gantz. This should also not be new to McGurk. I wrote the strategic assessment explaining that the Israeli right of center leadership, parties, and movements had abandoned the two state solution in July 2014. This assessment was distributed to the then special envoy’s senior staff, which, at the time, included McGurk. I know my boss, the Commanding General of US Army Europe read it, as well as the senior staff. I know his boss, the Commanding General of EUCOM/SACEUR read it as he assigned it as the read of the week for the entire command. I know LTG McMaster read it as I sent him a courtesy copy when he was the Director of ARCIC, so he was informed of this before he became the National Security Advisor. The CENTCOM Commander also got a courtesy copy. His name was Lloyd Austen. As did the then director of policy at OSD-Policy, who is currently the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Plans. No one can say they weren’t warned. Nor that they were not given a plausible alternative strategy, which I wrote into the assessment.

The simple reality is that the US desperately needs new policies and strategies in regard to the Middle East, the Levant, the Israelis and the Palestinians, the Gulf States, and the states of the Arabian peninsula (Saudi and Yemen). Right now everything is more of the same that has not been working for between twenty to thirty years or is completely reactive because none of our policies and strategies have been revised or replaced over the same time period. This is why you can see reporting multiple times a day of the US and its coalition partners playing whack a mole in different parts of the Middle East. Supposedly this is to deter further aggression by a variety of groups – the Houthis, Iranian backed paramilitaries in Iraq and Syria, Hezbullah, etc – and assure/reassure our allies, partners, and international shipping and insurers. It is doing neither of these because these are purely tactical responses to strategic problems. It is what happens when everyone is screaming at the President, the Secretary of Defense, and the Geographic Combatant Commander to do something. The entire dynamic is like the Chris Farley “For the love of G-d, do something…” meme come to life.

Right now our policies make no sense for the reality of the problem sets in the region. The objectives, or ends, can never be achieved by the strategies we’ve developed. We are living in the reality of policy cannot ask of strategy that which policy will not provide. Specifically, achievable objectives. It is not just us. Hamas’s objectives are not achievable. Neither are Israel’s, the Houthis, Iran’s, or the Saudi’s. Whatever the US’s objectives actually are are not achievable either because, as I explained to the senior leaders working this problem 9 and 1/2 years ago, they are out of alignment with the reality on the ground. Not much has changed in those 9 and 1/2 years. Someone should do a parody of the Who’s Teenage Wasteland entitled Strategic Wasteland.

Israel should have the following strategic objectives in the post 7 October fight with Hamas:

  • Get their hostages back.
  • Reduce Hamas’s capacity and capability to threaten Israel and spoil security and peace initiatives.
  • Assess what went wrong within the intelligence and security services, the military, and the political decision making that led to Hamas being successful on 7 October.
  • Develop a strategy to fix what went wrong and then implement it quickly and effectively.

From careful observation I have concluded that these are not, in fact, Israel’s strategic objectives in the war with Hamas. What Israel is doing is actually making it harder to get the hostages back, doesn’t actually appear to be really reducing Hamas’s capacity and capabilities despite all the death and destruction, and even the tepid review of just the military and military intelligence failures that the Chief of the IDF announced has now been cancelled because of political pushback by the extremists in Bibi’s cabinet and governing coalition.

Things will continue on as they’ve been going until something else goes really wrong. Then things will get worse.

Enjoy the remainder of your weekends.

Open thread!

The Israel-Hamas War in Gaza: No One Wins but the SpoilersPost + Comments (77)

AFC Football Conference Championship (Chiefs vs. Ravens, Game Time 3 pm)

by WaterGirl|  January 28, 20242:00 pm| 253 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Sports

NFC Football Conference Championship 1

AFC
(3) Kansas City Chiefs  vs.  (1) Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, Jan. 28, 3 p.m. ET on CBS

 

AFC Football Conference Championship (Chiefs vs. Ravens, Game Time 3 pm)Post + Comments (253)

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On The Road - dmkingto - Pine Lake Park / Stern Grove Pt. 1 3
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