Open Threads

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1693206341135778108

Chernihiv. A day has passed since the russian missile attack. Seven people were killed, and doctors are fighting to save the lives of the injured. Although the theater was destroyed, we only have grown stronger, more determined, and more certain of our victory. Evil will be dealt with. No amount of terror can prevent this punishment.
📷 Efrem Lukatsky, Paula Bronstein, Oleg Petrasyuk, Suspilne

Chernihiv. The aftermath of the russian terrorist attack.
📷 Paula Bronstein pic.twitter.com/4TZMyARdC9

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 20, 2023

Here’s a better look at one of the Russian missiles as it hit the Chernihiv theater:

Absolutely horrific strike by the Russian invaders in Chernihiv.

This Made-in-Russia garbage missile with its low quality aiming system ricocheted on the street and smashed into this building, across the Shevchenko Drama Theatre. You can even see children and presumably the… pic.twitter.com/Jc3lAeI3sX

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) August 19, 2023

Absolutely horrific strike by the Russian invaders in Chernihiv.

This Made-in-Russia garbage missile with its low quality aiming system ricocheted on the street and smashed into this building, across the Shevchenko Drama Theatre. You can even see children and presumably the father carrying one of the kids away from that carnage.

At least one 6-year old girl has been killed by this heinous terrorist attack.

Source: https://t.me/uniannet/108624

#Ukraine #Chernihiv

 

‘We are ready to exchange Belgorod for Ukraine's NATO membership’ – Zelensky at press conference with Denmark Mette Frederiksen, answering to the question whether Ukraine is ready to give up territory. pic.twitter.com/meAoyScGmJ

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) August 20, 2023

Very productive, focused, and concrete talks with @Statsmin Mette Frederiksen.

Our pilots and engineers have already began their training in Denmark.

Denmark will provide Ukraine with 19 F-16s. We are working on the speed of preparations.

During the talks we also discussed… pic.twitter.com/WyPVZ5meLj

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) August 20, 2023

Very productive, focused, and concrete talks with @Statsmin Mette Frederiksen.

Our pilots and engineers have already began their training in Denmark.

Denmark will provide Ukraine with 19 F-16s. We are working on the speed of preparations.

During the talks we also discussed the possibility of expanding training missions — the algorithm is clear.

Our F-16 coalition is proving its efficiency.

Thank you, Denmark!

STATEMENT ON STRENGTHENING OF THE UKRAINIAN AIR FORCE – DONATION OF F16 https://t.co/urr3G9hoQE pic.twitter.com/EuYcy4Oe2h

— Denmark MFA 🇩🇰 (@DanishMFA) August 20, 2023

Today, we took another step to strengthen Ukraine's air shield. F-16s.

These jets will be used to keep Russian terrorists away from Ukrainian cities and towns.@MinPres Mark Rutte and I reached an agreement on the number of F-16s to be transferred to Ukraine once our pilots and…

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) August 20, 2023

Today, we took another step to strengthen Ukraine’s air shield. F-16s.

These jets will be used to keep Russian terrorists away from Ukrainian cities and towns. @MinPres
Mark Rutte and I reached an agreement on the number of F-16s to be transferred to Ukraine once our pilots and engineers have completed their training.

42 jets. And this is just the beginning.

Thank you, Netherlands!

The Ukrainians will at some point receive 61 F-16s once all the training is completed for the pilots, the flight crews, the engineers, and the mechanics.

Here are some details on where things stand with the training program:

Currently, a certain number of 🇺🇦 pilots, engineers and technicians have started training on F-16 aircraft. The training program also includes English language training, because the basic level of a foreign language is not enough. The minimum term for pilot training is 6 months -… pic.twitter.com/kGaxHG8gpd

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) August 19, 2023

Currently, a certain number of 🇺🇦 pilots, engineers and technicians have started training on F-16 aircraft. The training program also includes English language training, because the basic level of a foreign language is not enough. The minimum term for pilot training is 6 months – the Minister of Defense of 🇺🇦 in an interview
https://24tv.ua/f-16-rozpochali-vzhe-navchannya-ukrayinski-piloti_n2375551?utm_source=webpush

 

Given recent developments around the "Gripen," I'd like to acknowledge Sweden's display of initiative. Swedish equipment such as Strv 122s, CV90s, Archers, NLAWs, and more – is now establishing its reputation on the battlefield, leaving a lasting impact on the military industry. pic.twitter.com/vmXtAONQbt

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) August 20, 2023

Happy Russian Aviation Day!
This day is among its worst in this war so far.
Many happy returns. pic.twitter.com/aSWWoCQhGL

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) August 20, 2023

UPD: It looks like there was one Tu-22 heavily damaged/destroyed.

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) August 20, 2023

The Russians just let a UA drone travel over 700km over Russian territory before whiteout getting hit. How the hell do they think they can take on NATO air power? Their air bases would be taken out by western cruise missiles in a matter of hours. pic.twitter.com/G5deAFBFbl

— Def Mon (@DefMon3) August 20, 2023

Bellingcat’s Christo Grozev has an interesting and excellent thread on what is going on with Wagner. First tweet from the thread, the rest of the thread from the Thread Reader App.

I keep getting asked what's going to happen with PMC Wagner. My answer usually is "no one knows, not even Prigozhin or Putin", but there are a few things that can be put on the record for the time being, based both on leaks by in-fighting clans, ex-mercs, & phone data (short 🧵)

— [email protected] (@christogrozev) August 19, 2023

First, a reminder of the context: at the start of the war, Wagner was not invited to the table. On the assumption of a quick victory for 🇷🇺, generals at MoD and GRU set up their own PMC, both to seize control away from Prigozhin, but also to dip into the (corrupt) funding flows. 

The top general who in late 2021 was put in charge of creating the new PMC (variously called Reduta or Zvezda) was Gen. Vladimir Alexeev (yes, the same one who famously sat down to negotiate with Prigozhin on the day of the abortive coup attempt)

Alexeev had recruited Wagner’s former “Intelligence chief” and used him as the recruiter for the new, competing PMC. This was Anatoly Karzai, a former Spetznaz lt. colonel who was big in the Russia’s bikers’ circles.

Naturally, Prigozhin found out about the competing operation and (as reported by two former mercenaries) went to the GRU HQ to confront Alexeev, and threatened his ex-employee Karаziy (typo in name previous tweet) with physical violence . 

Karaziy and Alexeev won that battle, but lost the war (literally), as their PMC was decimated in the first days of the war and Prigozhin had to be begged to bring the original Wagner into the war as of end of March 2022. 

Back to modern day.. After the final fall-out with Wagner this past June, MoD and GRU tried to recruit as many of Wagner’s top commanders and mercenaries into Redut/Zvezda/MoD. However, not a whole lot responded. 

The only commander that Alexeev/Karaziy were able to steal away from Wagner after the failed coup was a colonel with callsign Seriy (the grey-ing one). @bellingcat wrote about his role in Wagner, especially in Syria, in 2020: To the (mirror) left of Putin. bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-eu…

Putin Chef’s Kisses of Death: Russia’s Shadow Army’s State-Run Structure Exposed – bellingcatYevgeny Prigozhin can be described as the Renaissance man of deniable Russian black ops. An ex convict who served time for robbery, fraud and involving a minor in drinking and criminal activity, he be…https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2020/08/14/pmc-structure-exposed/

Troshev is now “the Utkin”, or the mil. commander, of Redut. And he is now the target of a character assassination campaign by his former Wagner buddies, bringing back a 2017 incident when he was found passed out in the street with secret Syria maps)

В больницу Петербурга попал Герой России с миллионами и картой СирииПолковник полиции в отставке с 5 млн рублей в кармане госпитализирован в одну из больниц Петербурга.https://www.fontanka.ru/2017/06/06/021/

However, rather than recruiting mercenaries for fighting in Ukraine, the GRU-controlled Redut is reported to be hiring now primarily for overseals/Africa postings. Wagner-aligned channels are accusing MoD of trying to divert resources to replace Prigozhin in lucrative markets. 

So the main conflict between Prigozhin and the MoD appears to mostly on the future of “kuratorstvo” of African/middle-east client states (and resource markets), rather than “how to win the war in Ukraine”. 

Prigozhin (who offered full-service assistance to his “client states”, including spin-doctors, psyops and electoral interference as needed) has created some strong local allegiances in Africa, and won’t give them up without a fight.

One thing appears certain: insofar as MoD/GRU need to allocate resources – both focus and 000’s of mercenaries – to win over Africa from Prigozhin, this is focus and resources unavailable to them on the ground in Ukraine. 

(а correction to Troshev’s call sign – Sedoy, not Seriy – the gray-ing one, not the “gray” one). 

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

Reposting this from last night.

It is my city Chernihiv. Drama Theater. 90 wounded. Ballistic missile. 7 dead. 1 dead child. 0 military facilities nearby. Genocidal purposes only. They want every Ukrainian to die.
I want russia not to exist. #ArmUkraineNow
Video: UNITED24 pic.twitter.com/kuTaEbVewG

— Patron (@PatronDsns) August 19, 2023

There is also a new slideshow at Patron’s official TikTok. Those don’t embed here, so click across to see it.

Open thread!