Much earlier today while poking around I came across the following:
BLACK SEA SHOWDOWN: A grain convoy has left Odesa in defiance of a RU blockade. Proceeding south, the convoy posses a dilemma for Putin: does he attack merchant ships in international waters, or does he back down and permit UKR to resume grain shipments?https://t.co/GtJKEFhIb4 pic.twitter.com/ymz0VfqbYk
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) October 31, 2022
And my immediate thought was to the opening of Star Trek 2: The Wrath of Khan. Largely because Putin is now facing his own no win scenario. Putin has already abrogated the grain deal, which is no surprise as he’s been stealing and reselling Ukrainian grain for months. But this convoy from Odesa creates a major strategic trap for him. If he does nothing, he looks impotent. If he attacks it he risks not only pissing off whichever countries those ships are registered with, also risks attacking a vessel flagged with a NATO country that’s part of the convoy and thereby putting Article V in play, but also running afoul of the UN and Turkey. Both of whom are involved in the inspection process for this convoy. The latest reporting I’ve seen is that Russia has two diesel attack submarines in the Black Sea. There might be a third, but the reporting is unclear as to where it is at. The remainder are either in for repairs or in the Mediterranean. While the Turks closed the Dardanelles to warships months ago, there’s a lot of international airspace over the Black Sea for NATO aircraft to freely transit on a regular basis. Including flying a combat air patrol that is not officially a combat air patrol for this convoy if someone decides this is a good idea.
And we’re back to the no win scenario for Putin. Do nothing and look impotent. Do something and risk significant blowback. This convoy and any others that are also going to put to sea have lots of nautical miles to transit before they’re safely in port, so we need to keep a weather eye on them. But every day they make smoke towards their destination and Putin does nothing is another day that Putin looks impotent.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump: