Ukraine can accomplish significant achievements when working together in the interests of its independence and all Ukrainians – President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s address

4 November 2023 – 17:32

Dear Ukrainians, I wish you good health!

Today, a very important visit took place. Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission. Just before the European Commission’s report on our compliance with the recommendations for opening accession negotiations. We expect such a political decision later this year.

We have been very active throughout the year in fulfilling these recommendations. We have passed legislation, implemented systemic solutions, and are strengthening our state institutions. We are providing law enforcement and anti-corruption agencies with more opportunities to work effectively. We have also addressed the issues of national communities. The full spectrum defined by the European Commission.

However, I want to emphasize that this is not something that someone in Europe, in Brussels, tells Ukraine to do. The transformation of our state is something that we need ourselves.

Ukraine has passed an enormous path – from a point where many didn’t believe in the possibility of our alignment with the European Union during a full-scale war to achieving the status of a candidate country at record speed and fulfilling the necessary prerequisites for opening negotiations.

This is proof, time and time again, that Ukraine can accomplish significant achievements when working unitedly, confidently, in the interests of our independence and all Ukrainians. We continue to transform our state to be genuinely prepared for full EU accession, adapting all our institutions, all our standards to European rules.

As of now, we understand the next steps our country will take. Today, after the meeting with Ursula von der Leyen, I’ve already mentioned some of them, such as a bill that provides the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office with more opportunities to work effectively and a lobbying law, which should have been enacted decades ago. We will address other necessary issues as well.

We all in Ukraine should already get used to the fact that our domestic policy is the policy of European integration, and it is what brings us closer to the moment when the Ukrainian flag will be in Brussels alongside all the other flags of EU member states. Today, from the President of the European Commission, I heard positive signals regarding our progress towards the start of negotiations.

Of course, we discussed all our fundamental issues: support for Ukraine – long-lasting and diverse, new sanctions against the occupier, our joint efforts regarding frozen Russian assets, which should be used to compensate for the damage from Russian aggression.

I thank President von der Leyen for her strong and principled support.

One more thing for today.

In the morning, I had the honor of joining Ursula in congratulating our railway workers on their professional day. Now, during the full-scale war, it has become evident to everyone just how important the work of our railway workers is for the country and the normal lives of our people.

It goes beyond just transportation; it is one of the cornerstones of our resilience. It is a salvation of people. It often involves the heroism of many men and women who, under constant threat and particularly in the early weeks of the full-scale war, continued to work for the sake of people and our defense.

It is crucial to remember each and every one who has dedicated their life to ensure Ukraine’s endurance. Different people. Our heroes on the frontlines. People of various professions who contribute. We must be grateful. We must preserve unity. We must ensure that we walk together the path destined for us by our fate. To protect Ukraine and pass on a guaranteed safe life to our children, grandchildren.

Glory to all who fight for Ukraine! Warriors, I thank you! I thank everyone who helps!

Ukraine is and will remain independent and free. I am confident in this.

Glory to Ukraine!

The cost:

Ruslana Danilkina joined the Armed Forces of Ukraine as the large-scale war broke out. She was eighteen at the time.
On February 10, 2023, she lost her left leg in a missile attack in the Kherson region.
She now works at the center for prosthetics, reconstructive surgery,… pic.twitter.com/LAQB1PnO1E

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 4, 2023

Ruslana Danilkina joined the Armed Forces of Ukraine as the large-scale war broke out. She was eighteen at the time.
On February 10, 2023, she lost her left leg in a missile attack in the Kherson region.
She now works at the center for prosthetics, reconstructive surgery, rehabilitation, and psychological care for war victims @superhumans_com.

📷: @VogueUkraine

 

Tonight, Russia attacked Ukraine with Iskander-K missiles. As a result of air defense, 3 missiles were shot down. It is not mentioned how much were launched in the first place. pic.twitter.com/HWRw5DVkna

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) November 4, 2023

I can tell you all one place in Europe that definitely has not seen an uptick in antisemitic violence in the last few weeks – Ukraine.

After everything that has been said about this country and her people, I feel like this should be more widely acknowledged.

— Oz Katerji (@OzKaterji) November 4, 2023

Tatarigami also has some thoughts on the anonymous US and European officials that are once again suggesting Ukraine should start negotiating an end to the war with Russia. Here are the details from NBC’s reporting: (emphasis mine)

WASHINGTON — U.S. and European officials have begun quietly talking to the Ukrainian government about what possible peace negotiations with Russia might entail to end the war, according to one current senior U.S. official and one former senior U.S. official familiar with the discussions.

The conversations have included very broad outlines of what Ukraine might need to give up to reach a deal, the officials said. Some of the talks, which officials described as delicate, took place last month during a meeting of representatives from more than 50 nations supporting Ukraine, including NATO members, known as the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, the officials said.

The discussions are an acknowledgment of the dynamics militarily on the ground in Ukraine and politically in the U.S. and Europe, officials said.

They began amid concerns among U.S. and European officials that the war has reached a stalemate and about the ability to continue providing aid to Ukraine, officials said. Biden administration officials also are worried that Ukraine is running out of forces, while Russia has a seemingly endless supply, officials said. Ukraine is also struggling with recruiting and has recently seen public protests about some of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s open-ended conscription requirements.

And there is unease in the U.S. government with how much less public attention the war in Ukraine has garnered since the Israel-Hamas war began nearly a month ago, the officials said. Officials fear that shift could make securing additional aid for Kyiv more difficult.

Some U.S. military officials have privately begun using the term “stalemate” to describe the current battle in Ukraine, with some saying it may come down to which side can maintain a military force the longest. Neither side is making large strides on the battlefield, which some U.S. officials now describe as a war of inches. Officials also have privately said Ukraine likely only has until the end of the year or shortly thereafter before more urgent discussions about peace negotiations should begin. U.S. officials have shared their views on such a timeline with European allies, officials said.

“Any decisions about negotiations are up to Ukraine,” Adrienne Watson, spokesperson for the National Security Council, said in a statement. “We are focused on continuing to stand strongly in support of Ukraine as they defend their freedom and independence against Russian aggression.”

An administration official also noted that the U.S. has participated with Ukraine in discussions of its peace summit framework but said the White House “is not aware of any other conversations with Ukraine about negotiations at the moment.”

The Biden administration does not have any indication that Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready to negotiate with Ukraine, two U.S. officials said. Western officials say Putin still believes he can “wait out the West,” or keep fighting until the U.S. and its allies lose domestic support for funding Ukraine or the struggle to supply Kyiv with weapons and ammunition becomes too costly, officials said. 

Both Ukraine and Russia are struggling to keep up with military supplies. Russia has ramped up production of artillery rounds, and, over the next couple years may be able to produce 2 million shells per year, according to a Western official. But Russia fired an estimated 10 million rounds in Ukraine last year, the official said, so it will also have to rely on other countries.

The Biden administration has spent $43.9 billion on security assistance for Ukraine since Russia’s invasion in February 2022, according to the Pentagon. A U.S. official says the administration has about $5 billion left to send to Ukraine before money runs out. There would be no aid left for Ukraine if the administration hadn’t said it found a $6.2 billion accounting error from months of over-valuing equipment sent to Kyiv.

A Gallup poll released this week shows decreasing support for sending additional aid to Ukraine, with 41% of Americans saying the U.S. is doing too much to help Kyiv. That’s a significant change from just three months ago when 24% of Americans said they felt that way. The poll also found that 33% of Americans think the U.S. is doing the right amount for Ukraine, while 25% said the U.S. is not doing enough.

Public sentiment toward assisting Ukraine is also starting to soften in Europe.

As incentive for Zelenskyy to consider negotiations, NATO could offer Kyiv some security guarantees, even without Ukraine formally becoming part of the alliance, officials said. That way, officials said, the Ukrainians could be assured that Russia would be deterred from invading again.

In August national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters, “We do not assess that the conflict is a stalemate.” Instead, Sullivan said, Ukraine is taking territory on a “methodical, systematic basis.”

But a Western official acknowledged there has not been a lot of movement by either side in some time, and with the cold weather approaching it will be tough for either Ukraine or Russia to break that pattern. The official said it will not be impossible, but it will be difficult.

U.S. officials also assess that Russia will attempt to hit critical infrastructure in Ukraine again this winter, attempting to force some civilians to endure a frigid winter without heat or power.

Administration officials expect Ukraine to want more time to fight on the battlefield, particularly with new, heavier equipment, “but there’s a growing sense that it’s too late, and it’s time to do a deal,” the former senior administration official said. It is not certain that Ukraine would mount another spring offensive.

One senior administration official pushed back on any notion of the U.S. nudging Ukraine toward talks. The Ukrainians, the official said, “are on the clock in terms of weather, but they are not on the clock in terms of geopolitics.”

Always nice when no one is on the record except the National Security Council spokeswoman.

Here is how President Zelenskyy responded:

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1720797186059817428

Zelenskyi commented on the rumors about so called negotations.

“I don’t know where it comes from and who writes it. Everyone knows my attitude, the opinion of Ukrainian society towards such things. We have repeatedly heard that they are allegedly inciting us to do something in Ramstein, but there is no such thing and there will be no such thing.”

Here’s Tatarigami’s response: (emphasis mine)

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1720725846846013524

NBC recently published an article titled: “U.S., European officials broach topic of peace negotiations with Ukraine, sources say.”

Once again, we find ourselves discussing weak politicians who are looking for a solution by appeasing the aggressor.

If the U.S. and Europe were to pressure Ukraine into making territorial concessions (which could be highly unpopular within Ukraine, placing immense political pressure on the President), it might only strengthen Putin’s belief in the West’s weakness.

In 2014, the annexation of Crimea and the occupation of Donbas was met with a weak response, further encouraging Putin to the events in 2022.

Unfortunately, there seem to be no diplomatic solutions that can lead to a positive outcome. It’s difficult to envision a scenario where peace can be achieved in Europe if Putin’s demands are met.

Even if Russia or Putin were to provide security guarantees, their past actions, such as violating the Budapest Memorandum and “security guarantees” to Prigozhin, make these assurances meaningless.

It’s uncertain how any “agreement” could ensure Ukraine’s safety. Russia will spend the coming years strengthening its military, while Western support for Ukraine, already dwindling during wartime, could be even scarcer during peacetime.

This can only encourage the known pattern:

– Invade a country.
– Use the threat of nuclear escalation to pressure the West.
– Wear down the West until they concede.
– Repeat.

To prevent long-term instability in Europe, sporadic conflicts and even another large-scale war between Ukraine and Russia, the focus should start shifting from pressuring Ukraine to concede territories into providing enough support to Ukraine in order to win. This support could enable Ukraine to inflict sufficient damage on Russia, compelling them to withdraw, as seen in cases like Kherson and Kharkiv.

Anything else is a search for easy but wrong decisions, political cuckoldism and decadence.

Tatarigami is absolutely correct here. There will eventually come a time when it may be possible to negotiate the terms that end Russia’s war on Ukraine, but that time is not now. While Ukraine’s offensive continues to make slow but difficult progress, negotiating an end to the war now will only freeze the conflict and reward Russia and Putin. That is not setting the conditions for winning the peace. Rather, it is sacrificing Ukraine and Ukrainians to the desire for everything to just go back to normal and a return to business as usual. This would be a strategic mistake of galactic proportions.

The Russian occupied Kerch Shipyards:

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1720845127717986432

It’s not the bridge but the shipyard of Kerch. Fire can be seen to engulf the buildings at the harbor. I also think that at least 2 missiles were involved.

Eye witnesses on the ground report that missiles similar in configuration of a Tu-141 have been seen, but if that is that case then I think those were fired to saturate and distract the Russian air defense.

Source: https://t.me/Crimeanwind

#Ukraine #Crimea #Kerch

 

https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1720858785147764822

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1720852354923122798

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1720917231410860151

Russian MoD confirmed that a ship was “damaged” during todays missile attack on Kerch shipyard.
Earlier, Ukrainian sources reported that Russian Karakurt-class corvette Project 22800 «Askold» was targeted. Presumably SCALP missiles were used during the attack.

Construction of Askold began at the Zaliv shipyard in Kerch on July 26, 2016. The ship was launched in September 2021, but work on the ship was still ongoing. It’s worth mention that Project 22800 Karakurt is armed with 2 × 4 UKSK VLS cells for Kalibr or Oniks anti-ship cruise missiles.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1720894814260965398

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1720856205063577620

Krynky, Left bank of the Dnipro, Russian occupied Kherson:

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1720878885372588104

For you Ukrainian rail enthusiasts:

https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1720754433242374252

Over 4 million people evacuated from war zones, thousands of tons of humanitarian aid delivered. Ukrzaliznytsia’s resilience is an inspiration.

Evacuation car from Irpin, now on Mykhailivska Square, stands as a reminder of Ukrzaliznytsia’s heroic efforts. Thank you, Ukrainian railway workers!

#UkrzaliznytsiaDay

Some more red leg porn for Omnes:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1720743282873942493

That’s enough for today.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos, but there are some additional photos of Patron’s meeting with the Japanese ambassador from the middle of October from his official Instagram account. That post won’t embed here, so if you want to see it click through.

Open thread!