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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Good lord, these people are nuts.

It’s easy to sit in safety and prescribe what other people should be doing.

The only way through is to slog through the muck one step at at time.

I see no possible difficulties whatsoever with this fool-proof plan.

Washington Post Catch and Kill, not noticeably better than the Enquirer’s.

Republicans firmly believe having an abortion is a very personal, very private decision between a woman and J.D. Vance.

Giving up is unforgivable.

I might just take the rest of the day off and do even more nothing than usual.

No offense, but this thread hasn’t been about you for quite a while.

Sitting here in limbo waiting for the dice to roll

Humiliatingly small and eclipsed by the derision of millions.

That’s my take and I am available for criticism at this time.

This really is a full service blog.

Well, whatever it is, it’s better than being a Republican.

“Can i answer the question? No you can not!”

Donald Trump found guilty as fuck – May 30, 2024!

Let me file that under fuck it.

You’re just a puppy masquerading as an old coot.

Pessimism assures that nothing of any importance will change.

The snowflake in chief appeared visibly frustrated when questioned by a reporter about egg prices.

if you can’t see it, then you are useless in the fight to stop it.

Of course you can have champagne before noon. That’s why orange juice was invented.

“I was told there would be no fact checking.”

I would gladly pay you tuesday for a hamburger today.

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Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

Open Threads

You are here: Home / Archives for Open Threads

Ups & Downs (Open Thread)

by Betty Cracker|  October 18, 20233:25 pm| 193 Comments

This post is in: Domestic Politics, Foreign Affairs, Open Threads, Politics

Gold Bar Bob Menendez (D-Egypt) is probably relieved that the House GOP clown show and the Israel-Hamas battle took the spotlight off a new DOJ indictment that accuses him of acting as an agent for a foreign government. But Senator John Fetterman (D-PA) isn’t dropping the issue. From The Hill:

Thus far, only one Senate Democrat has called for an expulsion vote to take place and say they would vote to expel Menendez: Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.), who lit the fuse of what has quickly become a nasty back-and-forth with Menendez over his future.

The two senators also got into an in-person tiff as they rode the escalator in opposite directions to the Capitol from the Senate subway area Tuesday morning. According to sources, Fetterman told Menendez that Tuesday would be a great day to resign.

Menendez reacted, telling Fetterman that he is hanging onto this issue too closely, echoing a line he told HuffPost a night earlier. Fetterman mockingly responded that he is “consumed” by Menendez’s indictment.

Menendez’s prissy response was that Fetterman shouldn’t get “consumed” by the case and should instead focus on things that are important to the people of Pennsylvania. I bet if you asked them, the people of the Keystone State (and the 49 other states) would tell you they don’t want corrupt politicians selling them out (though sadly too many voters in too many states keep returning crooks to office).

As a person who is represented by two Repub senators, one of whom (Rick “Medicare Fraudster” Scott) is cartoonishly corrupt, I can tell you that I’m grateful to Fetterman for speaking out on the issue. Ordinary citizens probably aren’t too keen on foreign agents chairing the Foreign Relations Committee either. Menendez wielded that gavel until forced by rule to step aside after the indictment.

Anyhoo, the Hill’s account of the escalator razzing says the two senators were riding the escalator in opposite directions, but it doesn’t say who was going which way. I like to think Fetterman was heading up while Menendez was going down. More Fettermans! Fewer Menendezes!

Open thread.

Ups & Downs (Open Thread)Post + Comments (193)

Final Push for our 2 Virginia House Candidates!

by WaterGirl|  October 18, 202312:21 pm| 77 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

We have one more Balloon Juice angel!

He will match donations up to $25 per person, for a total of $500!

Friends there is a lot going on but we need to stay focused on Virginia. Pls share this video, donate, volunteer.

And if you live in Virginia vote right away. Don’t wait. Early voting increases overall Dem turnout, helps us win! cc @HelmerVA. https://t.co/ytmmT8iZLE

— Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) October 17, 2023

⭐️

The fundraising numbers for September were just released, and as promised, we are assessing whether to hold tight where we are or to try to raise a bit more funds Michael Feggans and Kim Pope Adams– both are young, up-and-coming African-American progressives in the swingy Hampton Roads area.


Donate

Thanks to our Balloon Juice angels and all who donated, we’ve raised over $20,000 for our two Virginia House of Delegates candidates!   Michael and Kim are challenging very vulnerable and ideologically extreme Republicans –  one-term incumbents Kim Taylor and Karen Greenhalgh.

There’s a lot of money flowing into Virginia for this election, especially into the handful of toss-up races.  And it’s hard to predict some of these races:  there’s no polling, and the districts were all re-drawn last year.  There’s a lot of guesswork.  But the Republicans are clearly worried about the two shaky Republican incumbents we are challenging on Balloon Juice.

So where do things stand?

At the end of September, dark Republican money poured into the Republican Greenhalgh and Taylor campaigns:  Hundreds of thousands of dollars from the Republican Commonwealth Leadership PAC and Youngkin’s Spirit of Virginia PAC were dumped at the end of the month.  Roughly  two tenths of one percent were donations under $100 for these Republicans.  That’s less than 1%; – hell, that’s less than half of a half %!  They have no grassroots support.  But they have panicky dark money.

Our candidates have done well with grassroots fundraising, and they held their own in bigger donations as well, but they are not sitting on the financial cushion their opponents have from the last minute influx of dark money.  So let’s direct a bit more money to our two candidates.  We’re at $20,500,  have a final $500 angel match, so that will get us to $21,000.  

Can we try to get the thermometer to $25,000?

We looked at the other race in Virginia that is considered a toss-up (white guy vs. white guy) and both are really well funded) so our money wouldn’t make a difference.

We also looked a slightly lean Democrat – or “tilt” Dem, as they say in Virginia!   He was most interesting of the other Democrats we have been watching, but he is over-performing in fundraising, and looks to be in good shape.  So at this stage, tossing a few thousand dollars to him would be superfluous.

The Republicans are clearly worried about the two shaky Republican incumbents we are challenging on Balloon Juice, and the last-minute dump of Republican big money agains our two candidates tipped the scales in terms of whether to try to get them a bit more funding  So let’s give our all to our two promising up-and-coming African-American progressives!

This election is so important – we all know that this is not just a local race –  and Balloon Juice peeps have stepped up!  I like to think we made a difference with our targeted fundraising.

I think our two candidates here have bright futures – let’s do our best to get then started NOW!

I hope you guys will all share your thoughts on Virginia!

Open thread.

Final Push for our 2 Virginia House Candidates!Post + Comments (77)

Fingers Crossed for Payback Against Gym Jordan and His Bullying

by WaterGirl|  October 18, 202310:48 am| 230 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Politics, Republican Politics

Dare we hope?  Fingers seriously crossed for some payback for Gym Jordan and his bullying.

He cried, begged, pleaded and bullied the wrestlers when they were coming forward.  I hope that Gym Jordan comes to understand – just like Trump – that has has brought consequences upon himself by flying too close to the sun.

Mock here, and Watch on C-SPAN  (in theory, it starts at 11 am Eastern)

Jim Jordan vote tally expected to drop today.

Good morning.

What’s happening in the House is a microcosm of what we have seen over the past 7 years.

A minority group of extremists is attempting yet again to hold their party, and the country, hostage.

Threatening chaos and a shutdown of our institutions if we refuse to…

— Jack E. Smith ⚖️ (@7Veritas4) October 18, 2023

Fingers Crossed for Payback Against Gym Jordan and His Bullying
(click the image above to see the non-blurry version of the image.)

Open thread!

Fingers Crossed for Payback Against Gym Jordan and His BullyingPost + Comments (230)

And the clown car rolled on…

by Betty Cracker|  October 18, 20238:59 am| 113 Comments

This post is in: Domestic Politics, Open Threads, Politics, Republican Stupidity

The latest horserace report from Politico says that Jim Jordan allies’ attempts to strong-arm colleagues into falling in line has backfired and “could soon doom his speakership push outright.” The Jordon skeptics seem especially irate about Sean Hannity publishing the 20 GOP defectors’ names and phone numbers to activate the Fox News army of angry recliner chair-bound voters, calling the effort “a coordinated push with a threatening theme: Vote for Jordan — or else.”

Again, welcome to the party, pals. Please excuse the rest of us for drinking all the punch and hoovering up the hors d’oeuvres while y’all were still part of the rampaging extortionist mob. Here’s our offer: nothing.

Acknowledging that his speaker bid is in limbo, Jordan punted his plan to hold a second vote on Tuesday after Republicans privately warned he was at risk of seeing his opponents’ numbers grow. Instead, he is expected to huddle with allies and make calls in an attempt to get his bid back on track before a second vote as soon as Wednesday.

“We’re going to keep working, and we’re going to get the votes,” Jordan said on Tuesday night, saying that Republicans were having “great conversations.”

But one House Republican, who was granted anonymity to speak frankly about private conversations, said that Jordan and his lieutenants are “calling people who voted for him trying to stop the bleeding.” And they warned that those calls are “pissing off” members rather than winning them over, noting Jordan has failed to strongly and publicly disavow the attacks against his detractors.

Even if Jordan publicly calls off the flying monkeys today, it may be too late. Unnamed House Repubs in the Politico piece said the attempts to bully members into submission “amounted to a preview of the tactics that the ultraconservative Ohioan could employ if he claimed the top gavel — a readiness to unleash online wrath from the GOP base and its favored conservative pundits.”

That was okay when Jordan helped gin up a mob to overturn the 2020 election and then held a knife to the U.S. economy’s throat by threatening to not pay our bills. The GOP holdouts are only squawking now because the Freedom Caucus is aiming the mob at them.

I’m going to call my shitty Jordan-supporting rep today to once again register my objections to the absurd notion that a person who encouraged a mob to invade a congressional chamber should lead it. If you have a Democratic rep, consider thanking them for voting for Jeffries — and encourage them to stay strong.

Open thread.

And the clown car rolled on…Post + Comments (113)

Late Night Open Thread: Why Do I Keep Thinking About A Certain Emerald Mining Scion?…

by Anne Laurie|  October 18, 20233:03 am| 56 Comments

This post is in: Nature, Open Threads

Late Night Open Thread:

That dude’s not smart enough to emulate the raccoons enjoying their toy!

Late Night Open Thread: 2

Late Night Open Thread: 1

Late Night Open Thread: <em>Why Do I Keep Thinking About A Certain Emerald Mining Scion?…</em>Post + Comments (56)

War for Ukraine Day 601: ATACMS? I Don’t Even Knowm Ems!

by Adam L Silverman|  October 17, 20238:40 pm| 38 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Last night I included a tweet from  Special Kherson Cat with video showing that Ukraine had hit the Russian air base in Berdiansk. Now we know what munitions the Ukrainians used. The Biden administration has, apparently, very quietly sent ATACMS to Ukraine:

ATACMS. More news to come 🔥

🇺🇦🤝🇺🇸

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 17, 2023

The Ukrainians very loudly passed them on to the Russians!

ATACMS. 🚀
Video by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukrainehttps://t.co/OJFVAqOvuu pic.twitter.com/MZlokhmdEY

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 17, 2023

Thank you, America 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
One more step toward the defeat of evil has been made. pic.twitter.com/qsDOuTKxUh

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) October 17, 2023

The Kyiv Independent has details:

Ukraine struck Russian forces with the U.S.-supplied long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), marking their first usage on the battlefield, unnamed U.S. officials confirmed to CNN on Oct. 17.

The missiles, previously unknown to have even been deployed in Ukraine, were reportedly used in overnight strikes against Russian military airfields in occupied Luhansk and Berdiansk that were reported on Oct. 17.

The strikes reportedly destroyed nine helicopters, an air defense system, an ammunition warehouse, and other airfield infrastructure.

Dozens of Russian soldiers were also killed and wounded in the attacks, Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces claimed.

Debates and premature announcements about the U.S.’ delivery of ATACMS to Ukraine have been regularly reported for months, but no official date was ever announced.

Their delivery was deliberately kept secret, the unnamed officials said, because they were concerned that Russian forces would move equipment out of the missile’s range if they knew when they would arrive.

ATACMS can hit targets deep behind the front line at a range of up to 300 kilometers and can be launched from M270 multiple rocket launchers or the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS).

However, photos of the missile debris shared on Russian Telegram and Twitter indicate that the missiles used likely belonged to an older class of missile, with a range of 160 kilometers.

According to a report by the Wall Street Journal, unnamed sources confirmed that the missiles provided have a range of about 160 kilometers.

The occupied cities of Luhansk and Berdiansk are located about 85 kilometers and 100 kilometers, respectively, from the closest front line.

As a result, the usage of ATACMS in the attacks on Luhansk and Berdiansk does not in of itself demonstrate that Ukraine now possesses the newer class of missiles that can strike up to nearly 300 kilometers.

More at the link!

Over to CNN for more details:

The US secretly provided Ukraine with long-range ATACMS missiles in recent days, according to multiple US officials, providing Ukraine with a significant new capability that could allow its forces to hit new Russian targets that were previously out of reach.

The confirmation came on Tuesday after images of the missiles’ submunitions inside Ukraine began circulating on social media.

US officials indicated to CNN on Tuesday that Ukraine has already used the ATACMS, some variants of which have a maximum range of approximately 186 miles, to attack Russia’s Berdyansk and Luhansk airfields in eastern Ukraine. The Ukrainian military tweeted on Tuesday that the attack destroyed several Russian helicopters, an ammunition depot and an air defense launcher, but did not specify whether they used ATACMS to do it.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged the ATACMS in his daily address and expressed his gratitude for the agreements with the US being implemented.

“Today, I am especially grateful to the United States. Our agreements with President Biden are being implemented. They are being implemented very accurately – the ATACMS have proven themselves,” Zelensky said.

National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson confirmed in a statement on Tuesday that “The United States recently provided Ukraine with a type of ATACMS capable of ranging out to 165 km as part of our ongoing support for the people of Ukraine as they defend their territory against Russia’s brutal invasion. We believe this will provide a significant boost to Ukraine’s battlefield capabilities without risking our military readiness.”

A US official said the version of the missiles the US provided to Ukraine, which carry cluster munitions instead of unitary warheads, are not in the the stockpiles the Pentagon would draw from if the US became directly involved in a war, so there were no concerns that transferring them would hinder US military readiness. National security adviser Jake Sullivan first asked the NSC in mid-July, as Ukraine’s counteroffensive appeared to be moving more slowly than anticipated, to work with the Pentagon to provide an updated memo on ATACMS options that assessed the potential impacts on US military readiness, the official said.

The official said the missiles were provided “in recent days,” and that Biden signed off on their transfer in mid-September. In a meeting with Zelensky at the White House on September 21, Biden told Zelensky about his decision to send this particular variant of the ATACMS, known as APAM or anti-personnel/anti-materiel.

The US decided to send them quietly because they wanted to take the Russians by surprise, especially after months of public back-and-forth over whether Biden would agree to send the weapons, an official said. The Russians are aware of the range of the missiles and the US was concerned they would move equipment and weapons out of reach before the missiles could be used, the official said.

More at the link!

And more on it after the jump too.

President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today is after the jump. Both the video and the English transcript.

show full post on front page

Our task remains unchanged – this year we must be ready to open negotiations on Ukraine’s membership in the EU – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

17 October 2023 – 18:50

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

A report for this day. An eventful one.

The Staff. Key war and foreign policy issues. A meeting with the Chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate. A long one. On key risks. We are addressing every risk, every threat. Our response is powerful.

Finance Minister Marchenko informed about meetings and negotiations with the heads of international financial institutions. The annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank have recently taken place. Their attention to Ukraine is important. And there is an important conclusion that many partners, different leaders and institutions have: global stability, global security, and the development of the global economy are directly linked to the fact that Russian aggression against Ukraine must end, end fairly – with the restoration of international order, with the full force of international law.

Today, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine has adopted the decision necessary to start negotiations with the European Union. The law on politically exposed persons has been adopted. I am waiting to sign the text of the law. Our task remains unchanged: to be ready to open negotiations on Ukraine’s membership in the EU this year. We are doing the Ukrainian part of the job for this and we will complete it. We expect a political decision to start negotiations from the leaders of the EU countries.

I held a final meeting on the work of the Congress of Local and Regional Authorities of Ukraine this year. This is an important and effective platform for direct communication with communities and addressing pressing issues in the regions, interaction of local authorities with all central government agencies, the government, and the Verkhovna Rada. I am grateful to everyone who is actively working within the Congress. In particular, with regard to the restoration and preparation for winter. But, of course, the work of the Congress should be expanded to cover a wider range of issues, including social issues, communications, job creation, and many, many other things that are important to people across the country.

And the front. The warriors. Our brigades. The 54th separate mechanized brigade, the 68th separate jaeger brigade, the 25th separate airborne brigade – this is the Lyman direction. And the Soledar direction: the 92nd separate assault brigade and the 93rd Kholodnyi Yar separate mechanized brigade. Thank you, warriors!

Thank you to everyone who is fighting and working for Ukraine! Thank you to everyone who is helping us! And today I am especially grateful to the United States. Our agreements with President Biden are being implemented. And they are being implemented very accurately – ATACMS have proven themselves.

Glory to Ukraine!

More on the ATACMS:

So, even if we now have ATACMS with the effective range of 165 kms, it's now a major trouble to all Russian-used airfields (and not only airfields) across the entire southern Ukraine except for central and southern Crimea and mainland Russia.

Which means the impediment of… pic.twitter.com/Oe3841AXbR

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) October 17, 2023

So, even if we now have ATACMS with the effective range of 165 kms, it’s now a major trouble to all Russian-used airfields (and not only airfields) across the entire southern Ukraine except for central and southern Crimea and mainland Russia.

Which means the impediment of Russia’s air support in the south, particularly regarding the use of Kamov Ka-52 that is a big problem to the Ukrainian offensive operation in Zaporizhia.

Avdiivka:

Presidential Brigade of Ukraine repels Russian attack on Avdiivka front.
Previously undocumented Russian losses shown in the video:
– 1x T-80BVM obr.2022, destroyed
– 2x T-72B3, destroyed
– 1x T-72B obr.1989, damaged and abandoned
– 1x BTR-82A, destroyed
– 1x BMP-2 675-SB3KDZ,… pic.twitter.com/Xr2dS8gm60

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 17, 2023

Part 2
59th brigade repels Russian attack on Avdiivka front, Pervomaiske area. https://t.co/5hznozA4Rs https://t.co/Isp0UB1N8e pic.twitter.com/ZVcArZkct6

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 17, 2023

The entire duration of World War II passed since those days – and those ruins of a restaurant are STILL NOT TAKEN BY RUSSIANS.

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) October 17, 2023

More on the Berdiansk and Luhansk strikes:

Successful SOF operation to strike russian airbases in Berdiansk and Luhansk. As a result, enemy’s losses are:

– 9 helicopters destroyed;
– 1 air defense launcher;
– special vehicles;
– ammo depots;
– air strips were severely damaged.

— SPECIAL OPERATIONS FORCES OF UKRAINE (@SOF_UKR) October 17, 2023

This morning Armed Forces of Ukraine successfully struck russian helicopters and aviation equipment at the temporarily occupied Berdyansk and Luhansk Airfields, – @AFUStratCom reports. pic.twitter.com/UVFYmeJQ1u

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 17, 2023

Video of the Berdyansk airbase this night. https://t.co/8xjLsAWNsk pic.twitter.com/C2fPvTdvtS

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 17, 2023

More detailed version of the video of the Berdiansk airbase area https://t.co/4U966lVssX pic.twitter.com/9DCTw18dOL

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 17, 2023

Russians share photos of munition that was used during the attack on Berdiansk airbase https://t.co/bg4mCKd5Hj pic.twitter.com/i4pepg5cCA

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 17, 2023

More missile debris from Berdiansk airbase area published by Russians. https://t.co/9cY8TH4JPe pic.twitter.com/if5KUQoQom

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 17, 2023

So, major escalation, nuclear holocaust, Putin viciously provoked, the sky falling down, the sun never to rise again?
No?

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) October 17, 2023

Quick refresher, in case if somebody needs it 😉 https://t.co/jQtpmucYeE

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) October 17, 2023

3/ One major challenge is the significant spacing between helicopters, making it difficult to effectively target them with a single missile. Given the limited availability of long-range weapons, using a missile that may or may not destroy some Mi-24s becomes hard to justify. pic.twitter.com/qURiGrsYdz

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) August 2, 2023

5/ Other options, like a massive missile launch combined with drones to overwhelm defenses, may seem viable, but cost-efficiency becomes a significant concern in such scenarios.

This is where GLSDB (Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb) can prove highly valuable pic.twitter.com/dkbqYHXbSV

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) August 2, 2023

7/ Until then, significant efforts and creativity will be required to destroy these targets.

This thread and imagery were made possible thanks to your generous donations via Buy Me a Coffee. More imagery is on the way. Thank you once again, and don't forget to like and share!

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) August 2, 2023

Russian occupied Skadovsk, Kherson Oblast:

Strike on Russian controlled Skadovsk, Kherson region. Approximately 1 hour ago.https://t.co/S2m5LzOr8U pic.twitter.com/mwcjpbBLrZ

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 17, 2023

Here’s more for you drone enthusiasts and fans of Russian military equipment going boom:

There are three things that a person can watch forever: how fire burns, how water flows and how the FPV drone destroy russian weapons.

📹: 15th Mobile Border Detachment "Steel Border" pic.twitter.com/AsmAbAUDpU

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 17, 2023

Lithuania & Germany:

🇱🇹 @LTU_Army, together with the German defence industry in Lithuania, have started repairing 🇩🇪Leopard tanks brought back from combat operations in Ukraine. Tanks will be returned to the battlefield once their technical capability is restored.

🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine pic.twitter.com/gOuRWj9g73

— Lithuanian MOD 🇱🇹 (@Lithuanian_MoD) October 17, 2023

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

And here's a little backstage from the sound recording😊https://t.co/z8qt5F9gzQ

— Patron (@PatronDsns) October 17, 2023

And here’s the new episode of Patron’s cartoon from his official YouTube channel!

And a preview clip from Patron’s official TikTok:

@patron__dsns

Остання серія 1 сезону вже на моєму каналі! Лінк у шапці профілю, мерщій дивитиииись!🧡😌

♬ оригінальний звук – Patron_official

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

The last episode of season 1 is already on my channel! The link is in my profile header, so hurry up and watch! 🧡😌

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 601: ATACMS? I Don’t Even Knowm Ems!Post + Comments (38)

Tuesday Evening Open Thread: There’s Always Money In Predicting That Democrats Are *Doomed!!!*

by Anne Laurie|  October 17, 20236:39 pm| 140 Comments

This post is in: Elections 2024, Open Threads

This has been a GOP talking point that emerged over the past few weeks to explain away their party’s awful track record in special elections since Dobbs. I’m surprised to see Dave adopt the argument, as it isn’t backed by data. https://t.co/nyA0Pr7qdk

— Tom Bonier (@tbonier) October 14, 2023

A reminder, while we watch the GOP Death Cult eat sh*t… its own:

I think Tom is being diplomatic. It’s never a surprise when Wasserman pushes something stupid that, if it were true, would be bad news for Democrats. That’s his schtick.

If Wasserman weren’t a jackass he might ponder this possibility:

In the past… https://t.co/jNvyczM897

— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) October 15, 2023

…the low-propensity _white_ voters may have leaned more Dem. Among white voters college degrees weee correlated w both more consistent turnout & w voting Repub. But that link is breaking. In recent years white voters w college degrees have swung Dem. Turnout & partisanship…

show full post on front page

…among non-white voters has been fairly consistent w pre-Obama elections. (Minority turnout had gone up in 2004.) But since 2016 the other big shift has been w white voters without a college degree. Those categories have swung to the Repubs, & certainly there are Kerry/Obama…

…voters who’ve been voting Repub since then. But I suspect the bigger factor isn’t non-college white voters changing their partisanship, I suspect it’s higher turnout among Repub-leaning non-college whites who were sporadic or non-voters who have become active members…

…of the electorate because of Trump. And when Trump himself isn’t on the ballot they’re less likely to vote (like in 2018/2022/specials in 2023). Them returning to the electorate gets the Repubs back in to contention but it’s limited by the cross-current w Trump…

…Trump driving away white voters w college degrees. [That demographic is also changing as the cohorts change; white college grads who’ve become voters since 2000 or so are more liberal than college grads who were voting then; some of those older white college grads…

…are switching parties, but some are dying & the cohorts replacing them are more Dem.)

So, this shift of education/turnout/partisanship is mostly among white voters. That’s a potential problem for Dems, but probably less if Trump is on the ballot, & only if Trump holds…

…his previous support & keeps the turnout high among non-college whites—two big assumptions. It could make special elections look better for Dems than it will be next November. But it may not, & if those non-college whites perform like 2018/2022, but you add in typical…

…higher turnout of minority & young voters, 2024 could be more Dem than 2020. If nothing else it’s hard to see how it would be more Repub.

“Trump-led R party did poorly in 20 and in 22. Theyre performing terribly in 23. In 2024 they’ll do well because [checks notes] Black voters will show up in higher numbers!”

Bruh…

-and i cant emphasize this enough-

…wut

— The Last PicketLineBrandon Jedi 😈 (@Yaktuary) October 14, 2023

Remember that thing in 2018 when the polls and pundits were all predicting Doom for Democrats and you were like “WTF? This makes no sense,” and the pundits were “HAW HAW! Silly Libs trying to ‘deskew’ polls and deny their inevitable doom?”

Yeah, it’s happening again.

— NC “F̵a̵c̵e̵b̵o̵o̵k̵ Meta Delenda Est” Steve (@TCFKA_NCSteve) October 14, 2023

Tuesday Evening Open Thread: There’s Always Money In Predicting That Democrats Are <em>*Doomed!!!*</em>Post + Comments (140)

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