Minister of Defense presented a program of action; first steps have already been taken to resolve issues raised by the military – address by the President of Ukraine

18 October 2023 – 21:06

Dear Ukrainians!

In Zaporizhzhia, rescue operations have been ongoing all day at the scene of a Russian missile hit. Part of an ordinary residential building was destroyed – floors three through five in one of the blocks. As of now, five people have been reported dead. My condolences to the families and friends. Another five people were injured and are being provided with the necessary assistance. I am grateful to everyone who is working on the ground and supporting people: the State Emergency Service, medical workers, our police, and utilities.

And I thank all our warriors who are striking back at the occupier and thus bringing justice to Ukraine. This is the foundation of our state’s existence – to destroy the enemy and thus protect people. The more successful our warriors are, the more progress is made at the front, the more significant losses Russian troops suffer, the sooner we will be able to return security to all our cities and villages. To every community – from Sumy to Zaporizhzhia region, from Orikhiv to every other city in our country.

Today I had important phone calls with the Prime Minister of Norway and the President of France. In particular, we discussed the situation on the battlefield, support for our troops, defense cooperation, and the work of grain corridors in the Black Sea. This is important not only for our country, but also for the whole world, for global stability. Special attention, of course, is paid to enhancing air defense and our long-range capabilities, our strength at sea.

We also discussed with the Prime Minister of Norway the start of the work on security guarantees on the basis of the relevant declaration of the G7. I invited Norway to take part in the next meeting on the Peace Formula. With the President of France, we discussed further cooperation at the EU level – both political work to open membership negotiations and macro-financial assistance for Ukraine. Invited both Norway and France to participate in our summit on food security and the “Grain from Ukraine” humanitarian initiative to be held next month.

It is important that our assessments of the situation in the Middle East coincide. I discussed this with both Emmanuel and Mr. Prime Minister of Norway. It is a matter of principle to prevent any further escalation in the Middle East and to save as many lives as possible. All parties must take care of civilians – women and children caught in the middle of the hostilities and shelling. It will be one of the worst scenarios if the number of victims keeps increasing. And it is necessary to prevent such a scenario.

I met with a delegation of the Romanian government. Today, a joint meeting of the governments of our countries took place. This is another important step towards the strategic partnership between Ukraine and Romania. Our cooperation, our formats of interaction are a new force for the entire Black Sea region. For security, for economic development, for the construction of new infrastructure. And I am grateful to our Romanian partners for the real substance of our joint work.

And one more important thing for today.

I held a meeting with the Minister of Defense of Ukraine – he presented his team and his program. The Ministry’s team has been renewed. There are already first steps to address the issues raised by the military. Reducing bureaucracy, simplifying paperwork, all procedures, freeing up commanders’ time for combat work instead of paperwork. There will be more digitalization and clarity in supplying the troops. There should be more readiness for feedback from the military and overcoming piled up problems. I thank everyone in the state system who works for the interests of Ukraine to ensure that the result is seen every day. Every day means more strength for Ukraine.

Glory to all who defend our country! Glory to our strong people!

Glory to Ukraine!

ATACMS!!!!!

ATACMS have proven themselves.

📹: @GeneralStaffUA pic.twitter.com/Sd9rYYbkwe

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 18, 2023

How it started How it’s going pic.twitter.com/h4J2V2sQMp

— Bad Baltic Takes (@BadBalticTakes) October 18, 2023

Here are the screengrabs:

At every single decision point in regard to what to send to Ukraine and when, Putin’s ability to instill fear through his Information Warfare campaign into the Biden administration’s senior national security professionals has had a major effect on US decision making. As a result this has slowed down and limited what we have, are, and will supply the Ukrainians, which has prolonged the war, led to far greater death and suffering among the Ukrainians, and increased the instability in Europe. The Ukrainians and our other allies and partners have witnessed all of this, they will not forget it. Especially in light of how quickly we sortied two carrier strike groups into the eastern Mediterranean and started pumping weapons and material out on behalf of the Israeli. The contrast is striking. And it is complicating the US’s strategy to build support against Russia and for Ukraine. The Financial Times has details: (emphasis mine)

Western support for Israel’s assault on Gaza has poisoned efforts to build consensus with significant developing countries on condemning Russia’s war against Ukraine, officials and diplomats have warned.

The reaction to the October 7 attack on Israel by Islamist militant group Hamas and to Israel’s vow to hit back against Gaza has undone months of work to paint Moscow as a global pariah for breaching international law, they said, exposing the US, EU and their allies to charges of hypocrisy.

In the flurry of emergency diplomatic visits, video conferences and calls, western officials have been accused of failing to defend the interests of 2.3mn Palestinians in their rush to condemn the Hamas attack and support Israel.

In the first days after Hamas’s assault, some western diplomats worried that the US was giving carte blanche to Israel to attack Gaza with full force.

That had eroded efforts since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine to build consensus with leading states in the so-called Global South — such as India, Brazil and South Africa — on the need to uphold a global rules-based order, said more than a dozen western officials.

The backlash had solidified entrenched positions in the developing world on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, officials said. They warned that this could derail future diplomatic efforts on Ukraine.

“We have definitely lost the battle in the Global South,” said one senior G7 diplomat. “All the work we have done with the Global South [over Ukraine] has been lost . . . Forget about rules, forget about world order. They won’t ever listen to us again.”

Many developing countries have traditionally supported the Palestinian cause, seeing it through the prism of self-determination and a push against the global dominance of the US, Israel’s most important backer.

Some American diplomats are privately concerned that the Biden administration’s response has failed to acknowledge how its broad support of Israel can alienate much of the Global South.

In the Middle East, many Arabs feel that the US and other western powers have never held Israel to account for its treatment of Palestinians, or paid enough attention to brutal conflicts in Syria, Yemen and Libya.

Russia and its ally China have cultivated warm ties with the Palestinians. Russia’s president Vladimir Putin on Tuesday met Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing.

“What we said about Ukraine has to apply to Gaza. Otherwise we lose all our credibility,” the senior G7 diplomat added. “The Brazilians, the South Africans, the Indonesians: why should they ever believe what we say about human rights?”

Just four weeks before the Hamas assault on Israel, leaders from the US, EU and western allies attended the G20 summit in New Delhi and asked developing nations to condemn Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian civilians in order to uphold respect for the UN charter and international law.

Since last Sunday, many of those officials told the Financial Times they have had the same argument read back at them in demands for condemnation of Israel’s retaliatory assault on Gaza, and of its decision to restrict water, electricity and gas supplies there.

In recent days Russia has sought to pass a UN Security Council resolution condemning violence against civilians in the conflict, without specifically mentioning Hamas. The council rejected its resolution on Monday.

“I mean, let’s be frank. This is a gift from heaven for Russia,” said a senior EU official. “I think it’s damaging what’s happening . . . because Russia is exploiting the crisis and saying, ‘Look, the global order that has been built after the second world war is not working for you,’ and addressing 1bn inhabitants in the Middle East or in the Arab world.”

Arab states, particularly Jordan and Egypt, have pressed western officials to harden their tone on protecting Gaza’s civilians. “If you describe cutting off water, food and electricity in Ukraine as a war crime, then you should say the same thing about Gaza,” said one Arab official.

Much more at the link!

Zaporizhzhia:

Overnight, Russian terrorists attacked Zaporizhzhia with missiles, striking an ordinary five-story residential building.
 
Eight apartments were destroyed. There are wounded and dead. There may be people under the rubble. Emergency rescue efforts are ongoing. My condolences go… pic.twitter.com/1O04A8Gt1Q

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) October 18, 2023

Overnight, Russian terrorists attacked Zaporizhzhia with missiles, striking an ordinary five-story residential building.

Eight apartments were destroyed. There are wounded and dead. There may be people under the rubble. Emergency rescue efforts are ongoing. My condolences go out to everyone who lost their loved ones to Russian terror.

The evil state continues to use terror and wage war on civilians. I thank everyone who isn’t silent and is helping us overcome this. We will do everything possible to bring the terrorist state to justice. Russian terror must be defeated.

 

Zaporizhzhia tonight.
As for now, 2 people died and 5 were injured.

russia continues its missile terror – free world must stop it. pic.twitter.com/ibHphOTHBI

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 18, 2023

While Ukraine hits military bases and supply chains of the russian army, russian indiscriminate attacks at residential areas have turned into a daily reality for Ukrainians. Two people are reportedly killed, three were injured and three are missing in Zaporizhzhia pic.twitter.com/gN84oGxZM8

— Olena Halushka (@OlenaHalushka) October 18, 2023

Ukraine. Zaporizhya. This morning. Saving people from the rubble. Every goddamn day of this goddamn war. F-king russia. Hitting civilian apartment buildings is their specialty.#StandWithUkraine pic.twitter.com/N3BAEK15ew

— olexander scherba🇺🇦 (@olex_scherba) October 18, 2023

Rescuers are digging a cat out of the rubble in Zaporizhzhia. In times like these, it's so important to remain human pic.twitter.com/rMaFTRNOjX

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) October 18, 2023

Avdiivka:

The Battle of Avdiivka, the Russian attack's northern axis near Krasnohorivka.

At least 63 armored vehicles and weapon pieces were visually confirmed by DeepState as lost by Russia without any tangible results.

This is clearly the Vuhledar scale of disaster. And Russia… pic.twitter.com/oY8Lno7Z2Z

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) October 18, 2023

The Battle of Avdiivka, the Russian attack’s northern axis near Krasnohorivka.

At least 63 armored vehicles and weapon pieces were visually confirmed by DeepState as lost by Russia without any tangible results.

This is clearly the Vuhledar scale of disaster. And Russia concentrated a very large grouping on both axes in a bid to finally isolate the city in a death trap. It has not happened, with Russia’s force accumulated at such a high price largely exhausted.

Despite a ton of bravado in Z-channels on Telegram, hostilities in the sector are steadily dying down.

The war continues, and this episode is a Ukrainian success.

#Glory

Avdiivka is a tough spot to fight for both armies. Open terrain around the city, some tricky water features, bad roads. And each side has spent years laying mines and fortifying positions. It’s been a battleground since 2014. https://t.co/YmfYVaiI3O

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) October 18, 2023

Berdiansk:

The Frontelligence Insight team analyzed reports of a successful strike at Berdiansk airport using high-res imagery from September and medium-res imagery from October 17th. The analysis confirmed the strike's success. 🧵Thread: pic.twitter.com/YHtrrV4HbC

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) October 18, 2023

3/ Our preliminary analysis aligns with the statement from the MoD, indicating that multiple vehicles are likely to be burnt or destroyed. Yet, due to the limited quality of the available imagery, we cannot definitively determine the extent of this damage at this time.

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) October 18, 2023

5/ The high consistency strongly suggests that the lost Russian helicopters match those previously identified in this area. Additionally, it's important to note that many other helicopters have remained parked on the airstrip, even after the attack. pic.twitter.com/BmI1ObRKnS

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) October 18, 2023

7/ Nevertheless, the impact of this devastating attack is undeniable. It will likely disrupt helicopter operations in the South of Ukraine for some time, compelling the Russians to adjust their logistics and the operations of nearby helicopter bases.

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) October 18, 2023

A higher-resolution images have been published by (@cxemu) moments ago.

Turns out we accurately assessed the damage with a much lower resolution. pic.twitter.com/gufoC0ZWe7

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) October 18, 2023

Tatarigami has indicated he’s working on a similar analysis for the Luhansk strikes. I’ll most likely include that tomorrow.

Sevastopol, Russian occupied Crimea:

/1. Strike/explosion in Sevastopol, Crimeahttps://t.co/o1lcWfbwDz pic.twitter.com/JOeSZyqJXl

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 18, 2023

/3. Sevastopol strike location https://t.co/6kaVucYHA3 pic.twitter.com/O7WcZRyJoC

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 18, 2023

Poima and Pischanivka on the left bank of the Dnipro River in Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

Rybar shared a post from the Two Majors channel two days ago warning of a Ukrainian buildup and preparation for a crossing of the Dnipro. 2/https://t.co/rXTrMU7hM2 pic.twitter.com/6caphZPguT

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) October 18, 2023

4/ https://t.co/7j1RqMBhKI

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) October 18, 2023

Here are the screen grabs from Dmitri’s tweet that Rob Lee has quote tweeted:

6/ https://t.co/4AoTenpeZ8

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) October 18, 2023

1. New Thread/Oleshky
Rybar reports on evening 16 OCT 4 groups from🇺🇦35th + 36th Marine brigades + 140 Recce Batt landed at the small UAF bridgehead south the destroyed railway bridge over the Dnipro; aim to advance on Oleshky, Pishchanivka + Poima.
Further on 17 OCT p.m. the… pic.twitter.com/Qf48cEChsQ

— Dan (@Danspiun) October 17, 2023

3. Released 18/10,🇷🇺8th Arti Regt shell near both sides of small railway bridge over Verknya Konka River (46.663158, 32.804279 geo in link).
This is the only evidence so far that UAF are near Poima + so far no suggestion of larger crossing beyond a raid.https://t.co/0nVWY4QAnt

— Dan (@Danspiun) October 18, 2023

5. Sth of the Antonivsky railway bridge.
Some🇷🇺TG channels report that today UAF retreated from the Poima area. This ones shows UAF walking at slow pace northwards at various points from Verknya Konka River bridge towards Antonivsky Bridge.
0:31: at 46.665677, 32.802678… pic.twitter.com/pTlWlY8PGR

— Dan (@Danspiun) October 18, 2023

7. Poima. Film from Russian sources reportedly showing UAF in the northern part of Poima (not Pishchanivka). The exact same location including the blue sign for Poima railway station can be see more clearly at 0:37 in twt 2. Then it was under RuAF control.https://t.co/CtjAG59Pd7 pic.twitter.com/xmwkVjjr4V

— Dan (@Danspiun) October 18, 2023

Beijing:

RIA’s Kremlin pool making it very clear Putin’s entourage is carrying the nuclear briefcase while he’s in Beijing for the Belt and Road Summit. Stay to the end for the briefcase close up! https://t.co/5JJ3Buh3DJ

— Thomas Grove (@tggrove) October 18, 2023

Putin says he spent an hour and a half discussing "confidential issues" with Xi over a cup of tea.

But he gave no specifics about the meeting and didn't mention the Power of Siberia-2 pipeline or any other specific agreements beyond the MOU. Looks like Russia didn't get much. https://t.co/afWvu2CJy3

— max seddon (@maxseddon) October 18, 2023

Pyongyang, DPRK:

Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov is in North Korea, where hundreds of locals spontaneously gathered for this uncoerced show of fraternal admiration despite the bad weather, per Russian state media https://t.co/vbGeUGukKq pic.twitter.com/PTtSeBlbbn

— max seddon (@maxseddon) October 18, 2023

Now to switch gears back to Sebastian’s question. The Israelis use variants of our JDAMs. They are very powerful, make very large impact craters/do a lot of damage, and they are glide directed weapons. They don’t make the same type of sounds that come from rocket engines. In all of the videos of the strike at the Anglican Church funded hospital, you can hear the rocket engines. Also, they don’t make itty bitty little impact craters:

Possible impact crater at the Ahli Hospital in Gaza, roughly 1×1 meter, maybe 30cm deep. pic.twitter.com/ue28AfX0rM

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) October 18, 2023

Here’s the link to the British Channel 4 News’ visual investigation of the strike. Unfortunately this is not yet up on their YouTube page and the video posted on their site can’t be embedded here. It is worth your five minutes to watch it!

Here are the two best threads I’ve seen so far doing open source geospatial and imagery analysis of the strike on the hospital. As far as I know neither of the account owners are partisans for or against either side. I’ll start with the shorter one first. First tweet in the thread followed by the rest copied and pasted from the Thread Reader App.

🧵Now that day has broken, and we're getting better evidence, I'm willing to share some PRELIMINARY thoughts on the al-Ahli hospital explosion. The photos of the scene are, to me, not consistent with an airstrike and are not consistent with claims that 500+ people were killed. pic.twitter.com/dzA3Bx71hr

— Nathan Ruser (@Nrg8000) October 18, 2023

First, I should mention that this thread isn’t a forensic or expert investigation, I’m just sharing what I see and what I’ve seen previously. Nor am I attributing one way or another. Nor does this negate the countless civilians killed in Israel’s campaign. 

Photos of the aftermath show that the vast majority of the damage is from fire. Only 3 cars show any clear sign of kinnetic/structural damage. And for two of them, the general structure remains intact – despite clear damage.

Indeed, within 10m of the impact site there are cars which appear mostly undamaged.

This lack of structural damage to most cars is also clear in the IDF released drone fotage from less than 2hr after the explosion. Again these only show 3 cars with structural damage, and cars more than around 10-15m away appearing mostly undamaged.

Footage from ground level this morning shows essentially no crater. And very little damage to the building around 20m away from the impact site.

Next I want to highlight one of the things that the IDF claimed showing damage to roofs of hospital buildings around 30-45m away from the impact site. This would be consistent with an object that broke apart in midair, though I wouldn’t view this point as conclusively as others..

Namely because the ‘before’ image is from two days prior to the strike, I believe there were reports of the hospital being minorly damaged in strikes during that period so it is possible that the roof damage is not from the same time as the explosion. 

But all in all, the damage we see is consistent with a small impact, with a lot of fuel accelerant that likely caused most of the fire damage, and very little (within a very narrow radius) structural damage. 

Compare the damage from photos of rocket impacts in Ashkelon from last weekend. The only real difference is that this explosion appears to have involved more accelerant (which would track with reporting that this barrage was aimed at Tel Aviv).

Same lack of significant cratering, same structural damage/radius to parked cars. Similar in just a lot of ways. 

Compare this to airstrikes in Gaza which tend to leave a much larger crater and cause a lot more damage, they also almost always leave big deposits of concrete dust after striking a structure, though the construction of this particular hospital could be different.

I spent a while looking for an individual IAF airstrike on a singular structure, rather than broad/widespread devestation, and found this in lower resolution imagery. It shows the crater, but also the concrete dust cloud deposits that are around 30m from the impact site.

Also see this to show the scale of the structural damage and concrete dust.

Unroll available on Thread Reader

Next I want to address the claimed casualty count of 500+ killed, which seems widely inconsistent with the damage we can see. I am not doubting that civilians were killed, videos show the bodies collected in the hospital courtyard and I have no reason to doubt that. 

It is also more than possible that there were many people in the area. And the casualties could be quite high, especially if people were out in the open and there was falling, burning fuel. 

But 500’s incredibly high number, honestly implausible. Overlaying the area of damage on Google Earth – keep in mind this is mostly from burning cars NOT the explosion – it is 228m2.
This is that sort of crowd density (assuming there were no survivors which is also implausible).

In July 2016 a truck bomb in Baghdad killed ~350, this is the damage it did.
In Oct 2017, a truck bomb in Mogadishu killed 500+, this is the damage it did.
In Oct 2022, a truck bomb in Mogadishu killed ~125, this is the damage it did.Compare any of that to the above.

Someone very kindly sent me higher resolution imagery of the airstrike impact I was talking about in this tweet. This demonstrates all the points I Was trying to make about the damage of IAF airstrikes.

Unroll available on Thread Reader

None of this absolves the IDF from the countless civilians it has killed in this aerial campaign. There is no excuse for the degree of civilian casualties that the IDF considers acceptable, nor of the siege tactics. And no one can deny the extent of devestation brought to Gaza. 

But it seems extremely clear to me, that much (most (all)) of the initial reporting and discussion surrounding this explosion was inaccurate. The discourse and the reaction has quickly overtaken the facts and now it seems that the facts don’t really matter. 

It has also put me in the unenviable position of not being able to fully trust the numbers that come out of the Gazan Health Ministry, considering they are the only source providing numerical figures of the unquestionably numerous casualties in Gaza. 

There is also this claimed audio intercept of communications between Hamas members in the area. I’ve tried to make the above thread accurate without relying on claims from the IDF which are often inaccurate, but this is still worth noting.

More on the ground footage of the scene, also showing the lack of a crater.

Photos being released of the aftermath today shows that the grassy area to the West of the parking lot was full of civilians (blue in the map), a crowd here when the explosion happened could cause considerable civilian death, especially if there was falling fuel.

There is also photos showing damage nearer to the front of the hospital. This wider damage suggests there may have been a larger debris field which coudlve caused damage and casualties.
Despite this being a mass-casualty event, I still highly doubt the 500+ claim.

This video is the first that shows an impact crater. Once again, inconsistent with an airstrike. This crater is ~10m away (& closer to the civilian camp) from where I initially thought the impact was.

Unroll available on Thread Reader

Given a car around 10m away from this impact was flipped by the explosion (which I thought would have meant an almost direct hit) this could further indicate a projectile that broke up mid-air. But this is not something im confident in calling, would love to hear from an expert. 

This video looks pretty conclusive too, showing the hospital blast directly underneath rocket trajectories.

H/t @manniefabian

@manniefabian One other thing I will note, is that it is particularly sneaky of the IDF to release the thermal drone imagery in a way that just barely cuts out the small impact crater (around where the red circle would be). No idea if they did this deliberately, but it certainly does not help.

But generally when militaries just crop out a very relevant piece of evidence from their media releases… it’s not great.
See this perennial example.

Fact Checking Russia’s Claim that it Didn’t Bomb a Mosque in Syria – bellingcatTranslations:English (UK)Русский (Россия)On October 1st 2015 reports of Russian airstrikes hitting a mosque in the town of Jisr al-Shughur in Idlib began appearing online. This included reports from l…https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2015/11/01/fact-checking-russias-claim-that-it-didnt-bomb-a-mosque-in-syria/

There’s a few threads gaining some traction that claim to prove an Israeli jet struck the hospital. They’re wrong. Their geolocation is wrong & their timing is wrong.
Here’s a thread where I step-by-step refute their claims.

Unroll available on Thread Reader

The Channel 12 video showing the missiles being fired and the explosion in the hospital under the path can be geolocated to a housing complex in the NW of Netivot (31.439841, 34.573214) and the bearing to the blast matches perfectly with the Hospital

Also, the bearing of the rocket fire (from the very left-hand-edge of the 2nd story of the background home) points almost exactly towards the site identified from radar readouts by the IDF as the launch site for the rockets.

It’s now been 24hr since the explosion at the hospital. Despite numerous photographers/reporters at the site today, there arent images of missile/rocket fragments. Given they would conclusively show who is responsible (& given who secures the site), no photos of them is notable. 

Here is a higher resolution image of the blast site via @BBCNews’ verification team which came to many of the same conclusions as this thread. bbc.com/news/technolog…

Here’s the second thread. Same as above, first tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App. The videos don’t seem to make it between the original twitter thread, the Thread Reader App, and then WordPress. So if you want to see those, you’ll have to click through to the Thread Reader App.

https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1714390254935851272

Other footage:

2/X

GeoLocation by @Coupsure, @obretix and @YWNReporter.

Independently they came to the same conclusion.
The above footage is showing a rocket fail and breaking up in two pieces, one falling on the hospital.

POV of the video: 31.5139938, 34.4499253

3/X

Unroll available on Thread Reader

Thread by @YWNReporter

4/X

Thread by @COUPSURE :

GeoLocation of the strike at the hospital in this footage.

5/X

Unroll available on Thread Reader

Identification of different buildings visible in the footage:

6/X

Unroll available on Thread Reader

Identification of different buildings visible in the footage:

7/X

Unroll available on Thread Reader

Identification of different buildings visible in the footage:

8/X

Unroll available on Thread Reader

Confirmation by @obretix:

9/X

More information:

10/X

Conclusion:

A missile launched by a Palestinian group exploded mid-air (Reason unknown) and one piece fell on the hospital causing an explosion.

The geolocation and timing of the footage is conclusive.

More information will be added to this thread.

11/X

Other footage of the same strike:

POV: 31.566770, 34.537364

GeoLocated by @kr007t

12/X

Unroll available on Thread Reader

GeoLocation:

13/X

Official reaction by IDF regarding the hospital explosion.

14/X

Some people reacting with “there are no groups with such big missiles/rockets”

Example: GeoLocation of Palestinian Islamic Jihad with BADR-3 rockets:

15/Xwilsoncenter.org/article/irans-…

Unroll available on Thread Reader

Iran Transfers Rockets to Palestinian Groupshttps://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/irans-rockets-palestinian-groups

“Islamic Jihad denied that any of its rockets were involved in the hospital blast, saying it did not have any activity in or around Gaza City at that time”

note: A rocket barrage was launched (end of video) but maybe not by Islamic Jihad.

Source:

16/X reuters.com/world/middle-e…

In Gaza’s deadliest day, hospital strike kills about 500Gaza authorities said an Israeli air strike on Tuesday killed about 500 people at a hospital in the Palestinian enclave, but Israel said a Palestinian rocket had caused the blast.https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/least-500-victims-israeli-air-strike-hospital-gaza-health-ministry-2023-10-17/

Important note:

Our conclusions are based on our geolocations:
That doesn’t mean that they are THE truth, just what we think is highly likely based on our geolocations(facts) and logic/reason.

We are geolocators, not official investigators.

Do not take this conclusion as proven fact!

To be sure what really happened different official investigations are needed.

17/X 

More information:

18/X

Unroll available on Thread Reader

About the ‘JDAM’ claim:

The Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) is a guidance tail kit that converts existing unguided free-fall bombs into accurate, adverse weather “smart” munitions.

So the whole ‘listen to the sound’ comparison is irrelevant. Because every JDAM could have another bomb and every bomb has his own sound. (Based on weather, humidity, wind, environment, …)
It’s impossible to compare.

More information:

“JDAM claim”=

19/X 

More information about the JDAM discussion.
(Read also who Justin Bronk is)20/X

A few hours later…

A lot of people don’t seem to understand how OSint works. So little reminder:

OpenSource/OSint based conclusions are based on Open Source information that is provided/found at that specific time.

The facts matter.

After the publication of this thread new information was brought to our attention: we are looking into this new information.
If needed we adapt/update or even delete and restart our thread.
FACTS matter.

Ah yes: We never had more death threats than the ones in the last 8 hours.
Ask yourself the question before believing any of the different involved parties:
What have i seen for evidence that it was A or B that is responsible or do I just believe immediatly what one of the parties is claiming because it fits what i want to believe…

21/X 

IDF published footage, from the location of the hospital, showing burned out cars.
This location matches with the fires visible in other footage.22/X

We were working on the same questions as @Nrg8000 and he did a great job so we are just sharing his thread.

1. The damage in aftermath videos doesn’t lookt to concur with airstrike aftermath.
(UAV footage from IDF and video’s from the scene itself).

2. Based on the same footage:
How can this result in the claimed 500+ killed?

Read his thread 👇

23/X 

More information:

24/X

Another good investigation @Nrg8000 did before we could:

Proving that some of the camera footage spread to show that an IAF fighter is involved, is from another location and time.

25/X

Unroll available on Thread Reader

After looking to all the footage again, based on your feedback, we discovered some more interesting elements.

Lets review the initial footage of the strike step by step again.

We will reupload the video to make sure he isn’t deleted.

You can decide for yourself.

26/X 

The first three seconds gives us a possible roughly direction of launch.
(Not a location, because it’s difficult to estimate the distance)27/X

Here you see the roughly direction, but a launch is more curved. So it should be on the left of the arrow.

Rocket is flying to the left of the hospital.
So how would it be able to hit the hospital?
This we will answer in a few tweets.

28/X

IDF released this footage.
Important for us is this quote:”They shot it from the cemetery behind the hospital”

29/X

What is in the direction of our arrow drawn to the potential launch direction:

The big cemetery next to hospital.

30/X

But how is it possible that the rocket fell on the hospital, while it ‘passed’ its lateral direction.

Let’s look to the remaining footage.

At 00:05 a little flash is visible, changing the direction of the rocket.

Interception by Iron Dome should be a proper explosion.

31/X

At 00:07 a second flash is visible, changing the direction again.
The rocket is now flying back to the right from POV. “returning”The POV seems to be staying the same and the camera footage doesn’t seems to be cut. The flashes are possibly the result of rocket failure.

32/X

00:10

The camera never changed nor is there any interruption in the footage, but the rocket is now flying to the right.
Camera is zoomed in resulting in a brighter view.

33/X

00:10 – Rocket ‘explodes’

34/X

00:10 – Directly after the explosion you see that the explosion occurred in the middle of the rocket.

You see the warhead and booster?/engine? separation.

35/X

00:11 –
The warhead is flying ‘to the right’ from the POV → in the lateral direction of the hospital.While the Engine/Booster is falling down.

This would mean that the Engine/booster would hit the ground first on the left of where the warhead would land.

36/X

00:16 – First explosion, left of the future right explosion, 6 seconds after separation.

= possible Engine?/Booster? hit the ground?

37/X

00:18 – Second explosion, geolocated to the hospital.
To the right of the first explosion, 8 seconds after separation.38/X

01:29 – Camera pans out to film another rocket barrage.
(referring to the fact that Palestinian Islamic Jihad denied they launched rockets during this time, but it could be another organisation)This was our investigation of the footage based on the information at hand.

39/X

More info:

“As noted by Marc Garlasco, a Military Advisor at PAX for Peace’s Protection of Civilians team, the impact point does not appear to be consistent with the 500, 1000 or 2000-pound bombs used in Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAMs)”

40/X

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