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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

We can show the world that autocracy can be defeated.

People really shouldn’t expect the government to help after they watched the GOP drown it in a bathtub.

… gradually, and then suddenly.

If you still can’t see these things even now, maybe politics isn’t your forte and you should stop writing about it.

There are consequences to being an arrogant, sullen prick.

Books are my comfort food!

If you voted for Trump, you don’t get to speak about ethics, morals, or rule of law.

JFC, are there no editors left at that goddamn rag?

They are lying in pursuit of an agenda.

I have other things to bitch about but those will have to wait.

This must be what justice looks like, not vengeful, just peaceful exuberance.

Black Jesus loves a paper trail.

All hail the time of the bunny!

There are no moderate republicans – only extremists and cowards.

The words do not have to be perfect.

Radicalized white males who support Trump are pitching a tent in the abyss.

Fucking consultants! (of the political variety)

It’s always darkest before the other shoe drops.

You cannot shame the shameless.

Innocent people do not delay justice.

We do not need to pander to people who do not like what we stand for.

Impressively dumb. Congratulations.

The snowflake in chief appeared visibly frustrated when questioned by a reporter about egg prices.

Anyone who bans teaching American history has no right to shape America’s future.

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Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

Open Threads

You are here: Home / Archives for Open Threads

Palate Cleanser, Anyone?

by WaterGirl|  August 29, 202410:24 pm| 119 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

I thought we might need a palate cleanser after that obnoxious interview – it’s not good to go to bed mad.  Is it over yet?

Anyway, this seems like a good time to share a few more ditties and poems from the Aug 7 post.

SiubhanDuinne

To the tune of THE BLUE DANUBE WALZ

The melody calls
(Tim Walz, Tim Walz)
Resounds in the halls
(Tim Walz, Tim Walz)
The Orange One palls
(Tim Walz, Tim Walz)
His running mate galls
(Tim Walz, Tim Walz).

So Youse, Yinz, and Y’alls
(Tim Walz, Tim Walz)
Rejoice in the halls
(Tim Walz, Tim Walz)
Bring giggles and LOLs
Bring your balls
As we celebrate Tim Walz!

.

Math Guy

There once was a con man named trump,
Who the people decided to dump,
And replace with a man named Biden.
Soon Smith will come riden,
And trump will be hiden,
‘Cause there ain’t no mercy for that chump.

.

What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?

There once was a mensch named Joe Biden
Who sent Donald Trump’s prospects slidin’
He swallowed his pride and then stepped aside
Now Harris and Walz high are ridin’
That’s all I got. More a limerick than an ode.

.

FastEdD

There once was a man with a couch
All viral media would vouch
He loved without measure
The cushions he’d pleasure
And even preferred to his spouse

.

K-Mo

All across this favoured land the sun is shining bright,
The band is playing Taylor Swift, and people’s hearts are light;
Women and men are laughing, while  children shout again,
Mighty Casey moved the runner over; and Harris knocked him in.

Open thread!

Also, in case it gets pushed off the front page, here’s the link to the quilt raffle post from earlier today.
Raffle winners will be announced on Sunday, Sept 8.  Tickets available until then.

Palate Cleanser, Anyone?Post + Comments (119)

War for Ukraine Day 918: Today is the Ukrainian Day of Remembrance

by Adam L Silverman|  August 29, 20247:41 pm| 16 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Screen shot of a mural of an eye shedding a tear/crying. The upper eyelid is painted in the blue of Ukraine's flag. The lower eyelid is painted in the yellow of Ukraine's flag. The mural was painted by the artist MyDogSighs.

(Image by My Dog Sighs)

Two quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is still doing great. She has her next treatment on Tuesday. Thank you for all the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Second, still fried. So, I’m just going to cover the basics tonight so I can rack out.

Here’s the rundown on Ukrainian air defense from last night.

Overnight, Ukrainian air defenders repelled another massive russian air attack. The terrorists attacked peaceful cities with more than 70 aerial targets, including Shahed drones and Kh-59/69 missiles.

🇺🇦 air defense shot down 62 aerial targets:
◾️60 Shahed drones
◾️2 Kh-59/69… pic.twitter.com/EQEwEq0x99

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 29, 2024

Overnight, Ukrainian air defenders repelled another massive russian air attack. The terrorists attacked peaceful cities with more than 70 aerial targets, including Shahed drones and Kh-59/69 missiles.

🇺🇦 air defense shot down 62 aerial targets:
◾️60 Shahed drones
◾️2 Kh-59/69 missiles

Thank you for the job done!

📷: Black Forest Brigade (Illustrative photo)

Interception of Shahed kamikaze drones in Kyiv during tonight’s Russian attack on Ukraine. 60 out of 74 drones were intercepted. pic.twitter.com/RHURFgdCMu

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) August 29, 2024

Today is the Ukrainian Day of Remembrance.

Today we bow our heads to heroes who gave their lives for Ukraine.

The memory of our defenders lives in each of us. We will never forget. Because the one who remembers will win. 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/aNu8Y1OZQA

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 29, 2024

Today, Ukraine honors the memory of all its defenders—those who fought for our country, for Ukrainian independence, and gave the most precious thing—their lives.

On August 14, during these very days, the Russian occupier committed one of the most vilest crimes of this… pic.twitter.com/SiAFDJvSS9

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) August 29, 2024

Today, Ukraine honors the memory of all its defenders—those who fought for our country, for Ukrainian independence, and gave the most precious thing—their lives.

On August 14, during these very days, the Russian occupier committed one of the most vilest crimes of this war—killing hundreds of our warriors near Ilovaisk. It was a planed, cynical Russian war crime that Ukraine will never forget and will never allow to go unpunished.

We will always remember those whose lives were taken by this war. And we will never forgive Russia for any Ukrainian life it has destroyed.

May the memory of all our heroes be eternal. I thank everyone who remembers, who honors their sacrifice, and who supports the families of our fallen warriors.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

Gratitude to Every Warrior and All Fallen Ukrainian Heroes Who Return Home on Their Shields – Address by the President

29 August 2024 – 20:25

Dear Ukrainians!

Today is a special and very important day for our state.

The year 2014. The seizure of Crimea. Battles in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The beginning of Russia’s hybrid, bloody war against Ukraine. And the beginning of Ukraine’s military resistance.

The heroism of thousands of our people. The dedication to our state and to the military oath.

The defense of Ukraine. And the Ukrainian flags – flags of honor to our warriors who gave their lives for Ukraine.

The year 2022. The full-scale invasion. Russia’s full-scale attempt to destroy Ukrainians. And Ukraine’s full-scale defense. The courage of our people. The strength of the Ukrainian spirit. And the gratitude – of all our people, of our entire state – to every warrior. And to all fallen Ukrainian heroes who return home on their shields.

Glory to Ukraine!

President Zelenskyy also met with and gave awards to the families of Ukrainians killed in the line of duty.

On This Day, Ukraine Pays Special Tribute to the Memory of All Our Fallen Warriors – The President Met with the Families of Ukraine’s Fallen Heroes

29 August 2024 – 16:47

On the Day of Remembrance of the Defenders of Ukraine fallen in the struggle for Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with the families of Ukraine’s Heroes and presented 16 Orders of the Golden Star and 22 certificates for apartments.

The President noted that today is a day when Ukraine pays special tribute to the memory of all fallen warriors.

“Since the beginning of this struggle, from the first operations in 2014 and in the current battles at the front, our state, our Ukrainian people can rely on the courage and dedication of many Ukrainians – truly heroic men and women who are carrying Ukrainian life on their shoulders and with their personal strength,” the President said.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasized that the Ukrainian state and people will stand firm in this war.

“So that our children and grandchildren, and their children and grandchildren, can live safely on their own land and according to their own rules, with the Ukrainian character that is so inspiring to the whole world today and that deserves to fully manifest itself in a truly peaceful and free life. And this will happen. And this will be the best and most worthy honoring of the memory of all Ukrainians whose lives were unfortunately cut short on the battlefield,” he said.

Those present observed a minute of silence in memory of all the warriors who gave their lives for Ukraine.

The President presented the Orders of the Golden Star to the families of the fallen Heroes of Ukraine. The highest state honor was awarded to:

Soldier Viktor Kuchuk. In positions under full enemy fire control, where only water and radio batteries could be delivered by drones, he held the defense for 7 days: personally destroying 23 Russian occupiers and 2 armored vehicles. On July 18 last year, he led a group in an assault on enemy positions and suffered multiple injuries from artillery strikes. Viktor Kuchuk died but managed to order his group to clear the trench.

Sergeant Leonid Yanhol. During one of the battles in the Zaporizhzhia direction, he was wounded but continued to hold back the enemy’s advance until reinforcements arrived. He covered the evacuation of the wounded, saving the lives of 13 brothers-in-arms and eliminating 9 occupiers. Leonid Yanhol was killed on July 23 last year during enemy artillery and tank shelling.

Senior Sergeant Yuriy Sikyrynskyi. He carried out combat missions in the Kharkiv, Sumy, and Donetsk regions. During an assault on June 14, 2023, he ordered his group to gain a foothold in enemy positions while he and another unit leader returned under fire to bring reinforcements. Yuriy Sikyrynskyi heard a shot from a self-propelled artillery unit and shielded his brother-in-arms, but both died in the explosion.

Senior Sergeant Oleksandr Kolodiazhnyi. A veteran since 2014, he defended Donetsk Airport and was part of the group that raised the national flag over the new terminal. He was wounded three times but returned to the front after treatment. In June 2019, during a reconnaissance mission, he was severely injured by an anti-personnel mine. Oleksandr Kolodiazhnyi was evacuated but died in the hospital.

Soldier Pavlo Dumanskyi. On November 20, 2022, he spotted a Russian tank entering the position his unit was defending and preparing to fire at the trench. With no time to warn others, Pavlo Dumanskyi decided to shield his brothers-in-arms with his body. He saved their lives but died from the shell explosion.

Colonel Serhiy Li. In the Zaporizhzhia direction, the commander of a combined unit seized an enemy stronghold and held it for two days, preventing the enemy’s advance. The Russian invaders remotely mined the stronghold, but Colonel Li managed to lead his fighters out of the encirclement. Serhiy Li died on October 9 last year from a gunshot wound while retreating after mining the front edge of the battalion’s defense area.

Senior Sailor Pavlo Malofeyenko. Near Avdiivka, he covered the retreat of the wounded with machine-gun fire until reinforcements arrived. He destroyed 7 Russian occupiers and held the position of the marines. On January 30, 2023, during one of the enemy assaults near Vodiane, Pavlo Malofeyenko was mortally wounded.

Junior Sergeant Serhiy Yarish. He was wounded but, under heavy fire, saved the life of his brother-in-arms and evacuated him and 3 other warriors from the battlefield. On August 9 last year, during shelling of marine positions, Serhiy Yarish sustained shrapnel injuries to his back. He and other warriors were trapped under the earth. The Junior Sergeant died from his wounds.

Senior Soldier Illia Dolmatov. In March 2022, he cleared a safe route through a minefield in the Kherson region, allowing a group of Ukrainian defenders to reach enemy positions and force the Russian occupiers to retreat. In the Donetsk direction, he provided aid to the wounded warriors and organized their evacuation. In September last year, Illia Dolmatov died while covering the retreat of his brothers-in-arms who had been ambushed.

Captain Eduard Sharan. The group he led stormed enemy positions in the Zaporizhzhia direction, clearing them and engaged in a second battle with the superior forces of the Russian occupiers, who began shelling. Eduard Sharan provided aid to the wounded, organized cover and evacuation, and continued to command his group. He evacuated one of the wounded on his back while continuing to fire at the enemy but sustained a fatal injury.

Staff Sergeant Mykola Bomko. On June 1 last year, he destroyed a T-72 tank along with the enemy unit commander. Despite being wounded, he helped his brothers-in-arms and evacuated them. He returned to take up a firing position and managed to disable another tank, but a shell from a different tank inflicted injuries to his torso and legs. He crawled to the tank and disabled it with a grenade but died from retaliatory fire.

Lieutenant Serhiy Hrytsenko. Commanding a mortar unit in the area of Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhia region, he destroyed a T-72B tank, several “Tigr” armored vehicles, and a BTR-80. He led National Guardsmen in repelling enemy attempts to reclaim lost positions. On August 8 last year, during mortar shelling, Serhiy Hrytsenko ensured his subordinates were in a dugout before heading there himself, but he died from a mine explosion.

Major Anatoliy Loyuk. He repelled attacks in the Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Luhansk regions. On March 30, 2023, leading a “Stugna” anti-tank missile crew, he stormed an enemy position near Avdiivka, destroying an anti-tank missile complex and 8 occupiers, wounding 5 others. He continued to fight from his position but died from shrapnel wounds.

Major Ihor Puhach. He defended the Kharkiv region from the first day of the full-scale Russian invasion. Under his command, Guardsmen destroyed about 4 companies of Russian occupiers, 7 tanks, 13 armored personnel carriers, 22 vehicles, 4 MLRS, and 3 armored fighting vehicles. Personally, he eliminated about 100 Russian occupiers and 4 APCs. On June 28, 2022, a shell hit the shelter where Ihor Puhach was located, and he died from blast injuries.

Captain Denys Shevchenko. At a distance of 100 meters, he destroyed an enemy armored vehicle with a grenade launcher, killing the crew. In August last year, he defended the Serebrianske Forestry with his subordinates, halting the advance of “Storm-Z” troops. In battles in that area, he personally eliminated 11 Russian occupiers. Denys Shevchenko died on December 6, 2023, during artillery and mortar shelling of Guardsmen’s positions near Yampil

Captain Serhiy Kyrylenko. In February and March 2022, he participated in the defense of Mariupol. He saved the life of a wounded brother-in-arms, led a group of border guards out of complete encirclement, and evacuated two families from Mariupol. Last summer, he took part in the counteroffensive in the Zaporizhzhia direction. After breaking through the first defense line, Serhiy Kyrylenko was ambushed and injured. He managed to crawl out of the trench and warn his brothers-in-arms but died from critical blood loss.

The President also presented certificates for apartments to the families of 22 fallen Heroes of Ukraine. The documents were given to the relatives of 18 warriors of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 3 National Guardsmen, and 1 border guard.

The cost:

Natalia Kuznietsova, a soldier of the 67th Separate Mechanized Brigade with the call sign “Iranka,” died defending Ukraine.

With the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Natalia joined the ranks of the 3rd Separate Rifle Battalion of the 67th Separate Mechanized Brigade. In… pic.twitter.com/LyOk3opUnB

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) August 29, 2024

Natalia Kuznietsova, a soldier of the 67th Separate Mechanized Brigade with the call sign “Iranka,” died defending Ukraine.

With the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Natalia joined the ranks of the 3rd Separate Rifle Battalion of the 67th Separate Mechanized Brigade. In March 2023, she was awarded the Order for Courage 3rd class.

A year ago, she lost her beloved husband in the war – Viktor Panasko died defending Bakhmut in the Donetsk region.

Eternal memory and eternal glory to Ukrainian Heroes.

Сьогодні відправляв речі тих, хто прийняв останній бій.
Неймовірно важко дивитися на баули, діставати документи, телефонувати рідним, щоб спитати пошту.
І це все ще і в такий день.
Вірю, що все це не дарма.
Кожен день свободи – це друга дата на надгробку.
Кожен день має імʼя.

— Пан Зореслав. (@Zoreslav9) August 29, 2024

When I met with Ukraine pilots Juice (left) and Moonfish (right) I had a sick feeling they wouldn’t make it through the war. Juice died in Aug 2023, Moonfish died on Monday. They fought like hell for Ukraine, and the F16. Nickel on the grass men. Slava Ukrainii pic.twitter.com/uErBmyQGBa

— Adam Kinzinger (Slava Ukraini) 🇺🇸🇺🇦🇮🇱 (@AdamKinzinger) August 29, 2024

📸 Ukraine’s Air Force

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) August 29, 2024

He was just 30.

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) August 29, 2024

Lord, guard and guide the ones who fly
Through the great spaces in the sky.
Be with them always in the air,
In darkening storms or sunlight fair.

Ukrainian children deserve to grow up free from the fear of Russian forces bombing their playgrounds & hospitals, torturing & killing their parents, and kidnapping them from their homes. 🇺🇦#RussiaIsATerroristState pic.twitter.com/oDS5G3nO36

— U.S. Helsinki Commission (@HelsinkiComm) August 29, 2024

Donetsk Oblast:

The entrance to Donetsk region has become a memorial. It will be a long time before we can honor each defender who gave their life for Ukraine.

Today, we share in the grief. Glory to the heroes who remain forever with us! pic.twitter.com/4V4iRR2q1s

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) August 29, 2024

Kharkiv Oblast:

This memorial for children killed in the russian invasion of Ukraine stands in Kharkiv as a heart-wrenching reminder of the price we pay for fear of escalation, imaginary red lines, and unnecessary restrictions.

People continue to bring new toys that will never be played with. pic.twitter.com/FmCUM01WTD

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) August 29, 2024

Kyiv:

Relatives of the Ukrainian prisoners of war gathered near the Kyiv office of the International Committee of the Red Cross – they demand an explanation as to why the families do not have any information about the soldiers. @icrc any comment?
Go and visit Ukrainian POWs.
If you… https://t.co/0m8sempyXx

— Mariia Kramarenko (@KramarenkoMari3) August 29, 2024

Relatives of the Ukrainian prisoners of war gathered near the Kyiv office of the International Committee of the Red Cross – they demand an explanation as to why the families do not have any information about the soldiers.

@icrc any comment?
Go and visit Ukrainian POWs.
If you can’t access Ukrainian POWs, stop visiting russian POWs
You must keep your neutrality during conflicts, isn’t it?

Here’s the machine translation of the original/quoted tweet:

Relatives of the prisoners gathered near the Kyiv office of the International Committee of the Red Cross – they demand an explanation as to why the families do not have any information about the soldiers.

The Media Initiative for Human Rights explains that the ICRC is the only one with a mandate to visit places where prisoners of war are held. But they can do this only with the permission of the administration of the prison, detention center or colony, which the Russians do not give.

“What happened today under the walls of the Kyiv office of the International Committee of the Red Cross is a verdict on the entire system of international law and international organizations. Desperate relatives of prisoners, almost ready to self-immolate, because their relatives have been tortured and killed for years, actually storm the ICRC. And this is just the beginning,” says human rights activist Olga Reshetylova.

Video — Elena Belyachkova / Facebook

Pokrovsk:

I wanted to share a few thoughts, offering a snapshot of the current situation in general, and discuss a few key points.

– The situation in Pokrovsk is indeed severe but far from hopeless. Ukrainian command has the resources needed for stabilization, though this will require…

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) August 29, 2024

I wanted to share a few thoughts, offering a snapshot of the current situation in general, and discuss a few key points.

– The situation in Pokrovsk is indeed severe but far from hopeless. Ukrainian command has the resources needed for stabilization, though this will require difficult and potentially unpopular decisions.

– Resource shortages stem from both internal and external factors. Internally, issues include delayed mobilization, an ineffective recruitment process, an awful commanding culture, and the government’s struggle to balance public opinion with necessary measures. Externally, delays in Western aid, persistent restrictions on weapon use, insufficient military production ramp-up, and slow aid delivery contribute to the problem.

– The issues in Pokrovsk are not new. Delayed aid from the U.S., hindered by an isolationist faction in the US Congress, made the fall of Avdiivka easier for Russian forces. This was exacerbated by inadequate defenses behind Avdiivka, which Ukrainian leadership chose to overlook, shifting responsibility to already overstretched and undermanned brigades.

– The situation in Pokrovsk worsened with the Kursk offensive operation, which diverted experienced and motivated brigades, stripping stabilization reserves and allowing Russian forces to advance rapidly. This also echoes back to Bakhmut, where the decision to reinforce the semi-encircled city with experienced troops, instead of opting for a timely withdrawal, resulted in the loss of many skilled soldiers and officers, weakening the backbone of several effective units

– Western sanctions on Russia were never fully enforced, enabling Russia to maintain and even expand its pre-war military production. This leniency suggests that some Western countries left a “backdoor” open for a post-war return, allowing Russia to significantly increase military recruitment payouts without the anticipated economic collapse

– Russia is more formidable than many pro-Ukrainian analysts suggest but weaker than the pro-Russian camp portrays. Russia does not have unlimited resources: whether in terms of personnel, budget, or societal support. While it can be defeated, this will not happen if Ukraine and its Western partners continue to make the same mistakes.

– Mistakes can be mitigated by an abundance of resources. Russia’s ability to sustain the war despite its failures is largely due to its resource advantages. Unfortunately, Ukraine lacks similar resources, and the West is less inclined to bear the cost of these mistakes by Ukraine, even if this will become more costly for the West in the future.

– Despite the propaganda, Ukraine faces one of the most capable militaries in the world. Historical comparisons to the Russian army of the 18th, 19th, and 20th centuries reveal striking similarities, yet these armies won numerous large-scale wars. The achievements of Ukrainian soldiers on the ground should not be belittled

– Russia has failed to achieve its strategic objective thus far – overthrowing the government in Kyiv and turning Ukraine into a pro-Russian state. The war has been far less favorable for Russia than anticipated, and despite all its efforts, anything short of a complete occupation will not bring Ukraine back into its sphere of influence.

– Sooner or later, discussions about negotiations and a “frozen conflict” will resurface in the media again, suggesting that a post-war Ukraine with minimal foreign military aid and no security guarantees is preferable to the current situation. In reality, this will give Russia a significant advantage, allowing it to prepare for a potentially more successful invasion.

– If the West genuinely wants this war to end soon, now is the best time to provide Ukraine with the support it needs to gain a strong negotiating position. Forcing Ukraine into negotiations without such an advantage won’t succeed, just as Minsk I and Minsk II ultimately failed

After all, Ukraine has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to defy the odds and achieve victories – whether in the defense of Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy, the counteroffensive in Kharkiv, or the liberation of Kherson. Successful strikes on Russian targets deep within its territory, significant damage to the Black Sea Fleet, and inflicting hundreds of thousands of casualties is not something that people thought in January of 2022

I tend to pay little attention to what politicians say, considering statements about the counteroffensive, Bakhmut, Crimea, Russian missile stocks, and the war’s timeline. I’m not calling out anyone specific, but for analytical purposes, these proclamations have little value.

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) August 29, 2024

Here’s more from Tatarigami about what is going on in Pokrovsk:

As Russian forces continue their rapid advance toward Pokrovsk, now just over 10 kilometers from this critical logistical hub in Ukraine’s Donbas Oblast, concerns are growing over the town’s potential loss.

One issue for the public is the lack of clarity about why Pokrovsk is seen as different from any other lost settlement in the Donbas. To fully grasp the current situation, prognosis, and risks associated with the potential loss of Pokrovsk, we need to step back from the tactical level and shift our focus slightly eastward, starting with Avdiivka.

Before falling to Russian forces in February 2024, the Avdiivka area played a key role for Ukrainian troops for nearly a decade, serving as a fortress that secured vital logistical routes in the Donetsk oblast. It was also seen as a potential foothold for future Ukrainian efforts to deoccupy Donetsk.

Unsurprisingly, since 2022, Russia has committed substantial resources to capture Avdiivka, raising questions about whether the heavy losses incurred were justified even among Russians.

The goal of the operation was not merely to capture Avdiivka itself, but to gain access to the operational space behind it. Once Avdiivka was secured, it provided the Russians with multiple options and maneuverability.

This is a key aspect because, if we examine the war theater solely from a tactical standpoint – focusing on individual tree lines or single settlements – we may miss the broader operational objectives of the enemy and the potential consequences for Ukraine if these objectives are achieved.

The backbone of Ukraine’s logistics in Donetsk Oblast is under threat

Pokrovsk, a town with a pre-war population of 60,000, is situated west of Avdiivka at a crucial crossroads of multiple railroad lines. It has become a key delivery and railroad distribution hub, facilitating the supply of Ukrainian forces across a broad frontline, from Vuhledar to the north of Donetsk and beyond.

Currently, only two places in the Donbas serve this vital function – Pokrovsk and Kramatorsk. The significance of the location and length of the supply line becomes clear when viewed on a map:

When assessing the situation, we should remember that Russia doesn’t need to capture Pokrovsk to gain control over the railroad. Mere proximity to the town enables Russian forces to target trains and vehicles with artillery, mortars, and drones, effectively rendering the railroad hub unusable. It’s highly likely that train operations in the town have already been suspended due to these risks.

The significance of Pokrovsk extends beyond its rail connections; the town is also situated at an important road juncture, playing a similar role to the railroads in the transportation and distribution of supplies across the entire frontline.

The road linking Pokrovsk to Kostyantynivka has long been a target of Russian offensive efforts. Cutting off this road would complicate the resupply of troops engaged in the Bakhmut-Horlivka sector.

The potential loss of Pokrovsk poses a serious operational threat to the logistics of the entire region, disrupting supply lines from Vuhledar in the south to Horlivka in the north. The loss of both the road and railroad would exacerbate the situation for Ukrainian forces in the Donbas, leading to the potential loss of Kurakhove, Vuhledar, and areas both south and north of Toretsk.

Another significant concern is the political aspect: Pokrovsk is located just over 20 kilometers from the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Given that Russian forces re-entered Kharkiv Oblast from the north in May 2024, there is little reason to believe that Putin plans to halt at the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts.

If Pokrovsk falls, Russian forces would face minimal obstacles in advancing toward Dnipro, potentially extending their control into another administrative region of Ukraine and broadening the list of occupied oblasts.

Russia’s rapid advance in Donbas undeterred by Ukraine’s invasion of Kursk Oblast

Since the fall of Avdiivka, Russian forces have advanced more than 25 kilometers westward into Ukrainian territory. The concern is not about the territorial losses, but the pace at which Russian forces are moving through fortified areas.

Starting from July, the rate of Russian advancement in this region has accelerated, allowing them to bypass multiple defensive lines that Ukraine hastily constructed after the fall of Avdiivka.

The Finnish OSINT group Black Bird has mapped Ukrainian defenses visible through satellite imagery, helping to visualize the situation. As seen on their map, Russian forces have moved beyond several defensive positions, and with the full control of Novohrodivka, only one defensive line remains before reaching the outskirts of Pokrovsk itself.

Satellite imagery analysis of the seized positions shows evidence of artillery shelling and bombing, though not as extensive as in other frontline areas. This likely suggests that Ukrainian troops in the Pokrovsk direction were forced to retreat multiple times, lacking sufficient forces and resources to mount an organized defense.

While there have been many discussions and concerns about the lack of fortifications behind Avdiivka, which are entirely valid, the major issue remains the shortage of available manpower and units to defend those positions. No matter how well-constructed or numerous the defenses are, if they are only staffed at 10-20% of the required capacity, it’s unsurprising that Russian forces are able to overrun them so quickly.

Typically, in situations like this, both Ukraine and Russia deploy additional forces to stabilize the problematic part of the frontline. This often involves pulling one or more battalions from quieter sectors and redirecting them to more critical areas. However, after Ukraine was compelled to redeploy its resources to the Kharkiv Oblast and then to Sumy for the Kursk operation, the number of available units for such stabilization efforts was significantly reduced.

As a result, Ukraine was unable to stabilize this section of the frontline, just like in other areas such as Toretsk and New York, where Ukrainian forces also faced significant challenges and were forced to retreat.

Is the fall of Pokrovsk imminent?

Does this mean that Pokrovsk is definitely lost? No, it does not, but the likelihood of such an outcome continues to grow, given the balance of forces on the ground and the concentrated Russian firepower in the Pokrovsk area. Despite Ukrainian attempts to divert Russian forces from Pokrovsk with the Kursk incursion, Russian leadership remains reluctant to redeploy a significant number of forces from this front, even at the expense of reputational and political costs.

It is imperative for Ukrainian forces to prevent a swift and easy takeover of Pokrovsk, as this could buy Ukraine the necessary time to organize a defense beyond the Pokrovsk area—an opportunity missed in a similar situation in Avdiivka. If Russia exhausts its forces to capture Pokrovsk, it may lack the resources or morale to advance further.

Furthermore, Ukraine has demonstrated a capacity for sudden and effective counterattacks against overextended enemies, an approach that has proven effective given the Ukrainian forces’ greater mobility and more decentralized approach compared to Russian forces.

The Ukrainian leadership has several options to stabilize the line, including deploying newly formed brigades, repositioning forces from the Kursk and Kharkiv areas, or pulling battalions from more stable fronts. Whether the Ukrainian command will take these steps remains to be seen, but such a scenario cannot be ruled out.

As of today, the situation around Pokrovsk is dire and dangerous, with the potential to create a serious operational catastrophe if the town is lost.

Ilovaisk:

On this day ten years ago, russia attacked Ukrainian troops who were using the agreed-upon green corridor from Ilovaisk. Hundreds were killed. This tragic event taught Ukrainians that russia cannot be trusted under any circumstances.

Today, we honor the fallen defenders of… pic.twitter.com/tqT6fbKk4A

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) August 29, 2024

On this day ten years ago, russia attacked Ukrainian troops who were using the agreed-upon green corridor from Ilovaisk. Hundreds were killed. This tragic event taught Ukrainians that russia cannot be trusted under any circumstances.

Today, we honor the fallen defenders of Ukraine. Eternal memory, eternal glory.

10 years since the Ilovaisk massacre…

…the days when unmarked Russian regular military forces crossed the border and surrounded a large Ukrainian task force near the ill-fated town in Donbas…

…and then massacred Ukrainian columns retreating via what was supposed to be…

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) August 29, 2024

10 years since the Ilovaisk massacre…

…the days when unmarked Russian regular military forces crossed the border and surrounded a large Ukrainian task force near the ill-fated town in Donbas…

…and then massacred Ukrainian columns retreating via what was supposed to be safe ways out upon an agreement that Russia despicably violated.

At least 366 Ukrainian soldiers were killed, over 400 wounded, and over 300 were taken prisoner.

One of the most painful Ukrainian tragedies of the war’s early stage and one of the most detestable war crimes that put a giant mark of abomination and shame on fascist Russia’s face.

Ever since then, August 29 has been the Remembrance Day for Ukrainian Defenders.

We remember.

Kherson Oblast:

Destroyed Russian BUK-M3 air defence system. Kherson region. 27.08.2024https://t.co/hfsyJ4JSc0 pic.twitter.com/2kH4JyZ1bq

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) August 29, 2024

The Russians continue to fire missiles at Ukraine from a safe distance, as Ukraine does not have permission to launch long-range strikes. pic.twitter.com/5b1zocSWEl

— UNITED24 Media (@United24media) August 29, 2024

But wait, it gets worse:

🚨 Without immediate action from @SecBlinken, $6.2 billion in Ukraine aid will expire in ONE MONTH!

Last year, the @WhiteHouse allowed $1.75 billion in Ukraine aid expire.

Get the facts and make sure that @SecBlinken doesn’t let it happen again 👇 pic.twitter.com/OdF76S0yfe

— Razom for Ukraine 🇺🇦 (@razomforukraine) August 29, 2024

I do not know how this Dutch statement is actually going to play out in reality:

Ukraine can use Dutch F-16s for strikes against Russia – the Netherlands

“We have not imposed any restrictions on the use and range of the F-16s, provided that the laws of war are observed,” Royal Netherlands Air Force General Onno @CDS_Defensie Eichelsheim told NOS.

Dutch… pic.twitter.com/9lvkEmavAZ

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) August 29, 2024

Ukraine can use Dutch F-16s for strikes against Russia – the Netherlands

“We have not imposed any restrictions on the use and range of the F-16s, provided that the laws of war are observed,” Royal Netherlands Air Force General Onno @CDS_Defensie Eichelsheim told NOS.

Dutch Minister of Defense Ruben Brekelmans later made a similar statement.

“The law of war states that if Ukraine is attacked from the Russian side, Ukraine may also attack military targets. For the F-16s, that would mean that if a missile is fired from Russia, for example, you can intercept it with an F-16 over Russia as well,” the @DefensieMin said.

The Minister also added that air bases from which Russian fighter jets take off and from which bombs are fired are also legitimate targets within the law of war.

Source: https://nos.nl/artikel/2534955-commandant-der-strijdkrachten-oekraine-mag-nederlandse-f-16-s-in-rusland-inzetten & https://nos.nl/artikel/2534974-brekelmans-oekraine-mag-nederlandse-f-16-s-inzetten-op-russisch-grondgebied

Lithuania:

We cannot allow Russian bombers to be better protected than Ukrainian civilians are. Let’s ask ourselves if we are being honest about how much we actually support Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/nIF3IdQjDZ

— Gabrielius Landsbergis🇱🇹 (@GLandsbergis) August 29, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron.

First, some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.

Furry friends help to boost morale on the frontlines.

📹: @United24media pic.twitter.com/O95GIKDCTm

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 29, 2024

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:

@patron__dsns

Пам’ятаймо про кожного захисника та захисницю з кожним подихом, який залишився нам на цій землі. Вічна памʼять.

♬ оригінальний звук – Patron_official

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

Let us remember each and every defender with every breath we take on this earth. Eternal memory.

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 918: Today is the Ukrainian Day of RemembrancePost + Comments (16)

The US Army Wants A Word With Cadet Bone Spurs

by Tom Levenson|  August 29, 20243:59 pm| 151 Comments

This post is in: Elections 2024, Open Threads, Politics, Republicans in Disarray!, Trumpery

Never mind…

Mistermix has this covered.

I’m just going to leave this image up, because I like it:


The US Army Wants A Word With Cadet Bone Spurs

A rare image of Donald J. Trump’s only known military decoration

OK– I’ll leave this too:

In related news, Trump lies. All the time. About everything. In the TikTok he posted of his Arlington visit–again in direct violation of laws and norms–he claimed that in the last 18 months of his term no US servicemen died in Afghanistan, and then under Biden, 13 got killed.

Bullshit top to bottom: 34 US service members died in-theater in 2019 and 2020. But you knew that?

Words cannot express how much I loathe Trump and all who stand with him. And I haven’t even got to Vance’s pathetic tough-guy stylings on this one.

Because I’ve got nuthin else…Open thread.

Image: Joao Estevao Andrade de Freitas, A Single White Feather Close-up, 2004

The US Army Wants A Word With Cadet Bone SpursPost + Comments (151)

Arlington Update

by @heymistermix.com|  August 29, 20243:43 pm| 124 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

The Army released a statement:

The US Army issued a stark rebuke of former President Donald Trump’s presidential campaign over the incident on Monday at Arlington National Cemetery, saying in a statement on Thursday that participants in the ceremony “were made aware of federal laws” regarding political activity at the cemetery, and “abruptly pushed aside” an employee of the cemetery.

“Participants in the August 26th ceremony and the subsequent Section 60 visit were made aware of federal laws, Army regulations and DoD policies, which clearly prohibit political activities on cemetery grounds. An ANC employee who attempted to ensure adherence to these rules was abruptly pushed aside,” the Army spokesperson said in the statement on Thursday. Section 60 is an area in the cemetery largely reserved for the graves of those who served in Iraq and Afghanistan.

“This incident was unfortunate, and it is also unfortunate that the ANC employee and her professionalism has been unfairly attacked. ANC is a national shrine to the honored dead of the Armed Forces, and its dedicated staff will continue to ensure public ceremonies are conducted with the dignity and respect the nation’s fallen deserve,” the statement said.

The Army spokesperson said while the incident was reported to the police department at Joint Base Myer-Henderson Hall, the employee in question “decided not to press charges” so the Army “considers this matter closed.”

Of course the employee (apparently a woman) decided not to press charges:  she didn’t want to be doxxed and harassed by Trump’s Proud Boy / Q conspiracist tribe of feral assholes.

Anyway, I realize this is the third post about this story in 24 hours, but it encapsulates so much of the shit that we’ve endured since Trump’s escalator ride:  Rules don’t apply to him.  His minions immediately resort to violence when challenged.  Anyone who challenges them gets smeared, and they’re in mortal danger from his supporters.  He and his team lie and gaslight about the incident.  Unless it is obviously a big deal (like this incident) the press basically chalks it up to “Trump being Trump”.

The poor person who was shoved by one of Trump’s goons is by no mean the only person harmed here:

However, it wasn’t just the graves of those killed at Abbey Gate that were featured in photo and video from Trump’s visit. In at least one photo posted online, the grave of an Army Special Forces soldier who died by suicide is also featured; his family has since said they did not give the campaign permission to do so. The grave of Master Sgt. Andrew Marckesano, a Silver Star recipient, sits next to that of Marine Staff Sgt. Darin Taylor Hoover.

A statement from Marckesano’s sister on behalf of their family said that while they supported families of the 13 fallen “in their quest for answers and accountability regarding the Afghanistan withdrawal and the tragedy at Abbey Gate,” the Trump campaign “did not adhere to the rules” of Section 60.

“[A]ccording to our conversation with Arlington National Cemetery, the Trump Campaign staffers did not adhere to the rules that were set in place for this visit to SSGT Hoover’s grave site in Section 60, which lays directly next to my brother’s grave,” the statement from Michele Marckesano said. “We hope that those visiting this sacred site understand that these were real people who sacrificed for our freedom and that they are honored and respected accordingly.”

Even though the press is covering this more-or-less as well as they can, I’ll be surprised to find any account that contextualizes what Trump was trying to do here.  His multiple repeated comments about the Medal of Honor somehow being less than the Medal of Freedom prompted the press to write stories about his longstanding disrespect and disdain for the Military, calling them “suckers” and “losers”, as well as being unwilling to visit military cemeteries.  The campaign clearly thought this was a problem, so they staged a photo op on top of a soldiers’ grave, never mind that it’s illegal to do that, and the families of the other soldiers upon whose graves this group was standing didn’t consent to have them there.  It’s so fucking despicable at so many levels, but the key point is the one Harris made in her speech:  he is not a serious man and this event was an event staged by a non-serious man and his clown car of idiot minions.

Edit:  Chet Murthy linked a story in the comments that has one detail I forgot to mention:  Mike Johnson pressured Arlington to let Trump film there.

Arlington UpdatePost + Comments (124)

Speaking of the Native Vote

by WaterGirl|  August 29, 20242:18 pm| 85 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Political Action, Political Fundraising, Politics, Targeted Political Fundraising 2023-24

via Four Directions, we have a QUEEN SIZE star quilt to raffle off!

The quilt was made by Linda Szabo, who is a member of Rosebud Sioux Tribe.  Linda Szabo also owns Soldier Woman Art Gallery.

Everything we raise will go to Four Directions to aid in their Montana efforts – we need Jon Tester to keep his seat!

Tickets are $25 each, and we hope to “sell” at least 200 tickets.

Open Thread & New $1,250 Angel Match for The Civics Center

To “buy” a ticket, make your donation in the thermometer and send email to WaterGirl with your donation so you can be e entered into the raffle.    WaterGirl at balloon-juice.com

This is just for the raffle – we’ll be starting a fundraising effort for $30,000 for Four Directions as soon as they can line up an external match for us.  :-)

Note to all of us from OJ Seamans, who, along with his wife Barb, founder Four Directions.  They are co-directors, and their daughter Donna also plays a key role in Four Directions.

Pila maya pelo (Thank you)
Mitakuye Oyasin (We are all related)

OJ Semans Sr.


QUILT RAFFLE TICKETS ONLY


Donate

 

THIS THERMOMETER IS FOR DONATIONS – We have an external match for the first $15,000!  

We now have an external match for the whole $30,000!!


Donate

If Democrats win the White House in November, Peggy Flanagan is poised to become the country’s first female Native American governor.  Politico has an article about her.

Q: You mentioned Deb Haaland and Sharice Davids, two other Native American women who have had massive political accomplishments. You also have a background as a political activist. What are the biggest challenges in building Native American political power that you see?

A: There’s a lot of distrust of government systems for incredibly good reasons. That’s something that is absolutely a challenge, but it also provides an incredible opportunity. Native people — and I would say Native women — have been leaders since time immemorial. It is just modern society that is catching up.

Thankfully, we are beginning to see more Native people in elected office. But if we want to reach parity, we have to elect 17,000 Native people at all levels of government. I’m the co-founder of an organization called Advance Native Political Leadership, and it grew out of Wellstone Action and the Native American leadership program that we had there. This is an organization that is training Native people to run for office and to work on campaigns all across the country.

The Native vote makes a huge difference. We are strategically located in swing states all across the country. I think President [Joe] Biden and Vice President [Kamala] Harris were elected because of the Native community in Arizona. Ignore us at your peril. We are a really important voting block.

Oh, and speaking of Politico, I am giving them the middle finger for this headline, and article, currently on their front page: The 5 warning signs for Harris after the DNC.  (These are warning signs???)  They need to get some perspective.

Here are five obstacles the Harris campaign will need to address as the race kicks off in earnest.

  1. Tight polling.  (I’m sure all these new voters and young people are totally covered in the polling.)
  2. Harris still hasn’t sat for an interview.  (over-inflated sense of their own importance!)
  3. The debate debates. (As if it’s her fault because Trump is waffling?
  4. Where’s the policy?  (They want details they can pick at to derail the current upward trajectory.)
  5. Trump’s support from white men.  (Well, if white men support Trump, then she shouldn’t even run, right?)

Open thread.

Speaking of the Native VotePost + Comments (85)

Wow!

by WaterGirl|  August 29, 202412:05 pm| 180 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

This is such a compelling 2 minutes.  It’s so simple, and maybe so powerful for that reason.

Trump lies and then the media just accept those lies. There’s no pushback, no investigative journalism, no holding power to account. Thank you Jack for what you are doing! pic.twitter.com/yl042Vtb1w

— ytruthmatters (@ytruthmatters) August 29, 2024

Are you able to play this video even if you don’t have a twitter account?

Wow!Post + Comments (180)

Open Thread: Taking Back The Narrative One Song At A Time

by TaMara|  August 29, 202410:34 am| 99 Comments

This post is in: Elections 2024, Kamala Harris for President, Open Threads, Politics

How about a bit of music to keep the day going? This was on twitter and by the screams from all the right people, it hit its mark. For those that don’t know, Offerman and his wife, Megan Mullally, were generally seen as favoring Republicans. I don’t know how much of that was true or wishful thinking. But Offerman has made his feelings clear with this fun ditty

I’m not a TikTok person (I’ve tried, but it is too easy to lose a couple of hours for no good reason there) but I hear there are accounts there doing the heavy lifting reaching folks we need for the blue wave. This is one of those accounts – there are hundreds of other accounts lipsyncing to this song, so again, reaching a larger audience and spreading the word.

show full post on front page

Again, probably offending all the right people. The account (TikTok and YouTube) had lots of these types of anthems. If you need something to either reach or piss off your Maga red family and friends.

Other than that, don’t have much of interest to post – I’ve written and deleted several posts, so that tells you where my brain is at. As always, recipes and pet updates can be found here. There’s going to be a Reggie update tomorrow with video! I don’t want to post it in this thread – I don’t want to spoil it with political talk. Just where I’m at these days.

I have added a Joyful Warrior Harris Walz decal to my car and my Harris-Walz yard sign and buttons arrive next week.

This is an 0pen thread

Open Thread: Taking Back The Narrative One Song At A TimePost + Comments (99)

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