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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

I did not have this on my fuck 2025 bingo card.

Republicans cannot even be trusted with their own money.

Dear media: perhaps we ought to let Donald Trump speak for himself!

Human rights are not a matter of opinion!

That’s my take and I am available for criticism at this time.

Text STOP to opt out of updates on war plans.

Disappointing to see gov. newsom with his finger to the wind.

They are lying in pursuit of an agenda.

Not loving this new fraud based economy.

Republicans do not trust women.

The world has changed, and neither one recognizes it.

Beware of advice from anyone for whom Democrats are “they” and not “we.”

Not all heroes wear capes.

It is not hopeless, and we are not helpless.

So very ready.

If you thought you’d already seen people saying the stupidest things possible on the internet, prepare yourselves.

Michigan is a great lesson for Dems everywhere: when you have power…use it!

Do not shrug your shoulders and accept the normalization of untruths.

Quote tweet friends, screenshot enemies.

I am pretty sure these ‘journalists’ were not always such a bootlicking sycophants.

Nancy smash is sick of your bullshit.

Too little, too late, ftfnyt. fuck all the way off.

But frankly mr. cole, I’ll be happier when you get back to telling us to go fuck ourselves.

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

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Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

Open Threads

You are here: Home / Archives for Open Threads

Trump Is Testifying in the E. Jean Carroll Case (Open Thread)

by WaterGirl|  January 25, 20242:27 pm| 192 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Politics, Trump Indictments

Trump is testifying. I am in the middle of making spaghetti and meatballs, so I am still catching up on the twitter reports so I don’t know if Trump has screwed the pooch yet or not.

Trump Is Testifying in the E. Jean Carroll Case

Anyone else trying to follow this?

Open thread.

Trump Is Testifying in the E. Jean Carroll Case (Open Thread)Post + Comments (192)

“Forget it, Jake. It’s Dinertown.”

by Betty Cracker|  January 25, 202412:01 pm| 163 Comments

This post is in: Domestic Politics, Elections 2024, Open Threads, Politics, Republican Stupidity, Our Failed Media Experiment

Stipulated: the political press in the United States is steaming hot garbage. Sometimes I wonder if we spend too much time complaining about it. Sometimes I think the theories folks put forth to explain its willful toxicity cross the line into paranoia.

But for me at least, the core issue is never in doubt: The D.C. press is wired for Republicans, and over the better part of a decade now,* the political media herd has demonstrated it lacks the capacity to adjust to changing circumstances and is poised to both-sides a democracy into a dictatorship.

The bumbling DC MSM are too rigid or compromised or stupid or whatever to perceive the threat and come down on the side of democracy. Even when a fluorescent orange fascist and his slack-jawed horde scream “enemy of the people” in their goddamn faces daily.

I thought I’d accepted that and made my peace with it. Then I saw this CNN analysis by Stephen Collinson with a promising lede, and it awakened my fury at these gormless sheep all over again:

CNN — Donald Trump’s voters get all the attention. But it’s Joe Biden’s who may decide the general election.

That’s promising, right? I braced myself for the shock of reading about, I dunno, maybe a union member who appreciated the president’s stint on the picket line, or a person whose crushing student debt had been forgiven, or someone whose town was in the process of being revitalized due to a long-neglected infrastructure project.

Hahaha, nope! Here’s a screenshot of a video clip that prominently illustrates and allegedly adds to the discussion of Biden voters — the subject is a Trump-voting moron who’s so mind-bendingly gullible that he’s convinced himself one of the most corrupt villains to ever walk the earth is incorruptible.

Screenshot of voter who says Trump can't be bought

Other clips include 82-year-old Bernie Sanders speaking for America’s youth about their discontent with Biden’s policy on Israel and several black voters who worry that people won’t show up for Biden because there’s been too little progress on issues they care about. And you know what? Fair enough on the latter two clips.

Some Democrats do worry that the president is getting played by Netanyahu and/or hasn’t sufficiently used U.S. leverage to protect civilians in Gaza and the West Bank. Some Democrats do question the administration’s priorities. These are legit angles to cover in the runup to an election where coalition turnout will be key.

But can we not get some fucking balance here? I mean, if you’re going to include the views of a white man who is so self-lobotomized that he sincerely believes international commodity Donald Trump “pretty much can’t be bought,” how about a mention of a Democrat who can’t wait to vote for Biden again?

I shit you not, y’all — here’s how the CNN piece on Biden voters ends:

“They didn’t like his act or his Twitter, but he got things done,” said [Dominick] Lombardi, [vice chairman of the Orange Republican Party in New Haven County, Connecticut], who was wearing a red “Make America Great Again” baseball cap at a Trump rally in New Hampshire last weekend.

If democracy is to be saved, we Biden voters will have to do the saving without any assistance from the Fourth Estate. In fact, we’ll have to save democracy with their dead fucking weight strapped to our backs.

Open thread.

*God help us, next year will mark the 10th anniversary of Donald Trump’s descent down the golden escalator to launch his campaign. I laughed at the time. What kind of goddamn moron thinks a bloated, scammy jerk and his stale, scowling arm-candy riding an escalator down to a lobby constitutes a grand entrance? What I did not understand back then is that the rest of us were descending too, straight into Dante’s Nine Circles of Hell, where we will apparently remain until that fucker finally dies. 

“Forget it, Jake. It’s Dinertown.”Post + Comments (163)

Thursday Morning Open Thread: Proud to Be A Union Man

by Anne Laurie|  January 25, 20248:05 am| 213 Comments

This post is in: 2024 Primaries, Elections 2024, Open Threads, President Biden, Proud to Be A Democrat

I’m proud to have the UAW’s back, and I’m honored they have mine.

Thank you for choosing to stand with me. pic.twitter.com/YKsevpcfQW

— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) January 24, 2024

Fain: Trump went to a nonunion plant, invited by the boss, and trashed our union. That's right. And, here is what Joe Biden did during our stand up strike. He heard the call. He stood up and showed up. pic.twitter.com/AXh7FLKO5d

— Acyn (@Acyn) January 24, 2024

Remember – Sharing is caring!

"Donald Trump is a scab. Donald Trump is a billionaire and that's who he represents." —UAW President Shawn Fain while endorsing Joe Biden pic.twitter.com/NU8nPibm4F

— Pod Save America (@PodSaveAmerica) January 24, 2024

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Rule Number One: Biden is never allowed even the smallest of victories. Every bit of good news must be leavened liberally with that signature snarky bitterness we've all come to know (and hate) by reporters like this one https://t.co/nI7e8RoJ87

— scary lawyerguy (@scarylawyerguy) January 24, 2024

Predictable sidebar:

Per a UAW delegate in attendance there were fewer than a dozen protestors out of the hundreds of delegates. https://t.co/yewX1qKnuJ

— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) January 25, 2024

UAW delegate: https://t.co/1S3JjUqGrZ

— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) January 25, 2024

There were also non member protestors outside who were exchanging yelled comments with departing Local CAP committee folks (ie the volunteers)-source: I was there. But they certainly were making friends…

— Nathan from Michigan (@NathanfromMI) January 25, 2024

In conclusion…

Big, if true. https://t.co/FDTReUcOQi

— Centrism Fan Acct 🔹 (@Wilson__Valdez) January 24, 2024

===

I had asked Williamson about this write in effort and she sighed very deeply

— David Weigel (@daveweigel) January 20, 2024

I’ll admit I was mildly curious about the proposal to write in Ceasefire on NH Democratic primary ballots:

Ceasefire got 46 write-ins and Trump and Nikki Haley combined for 441. There were almost ten times as many write-in votes for the Republican candidates in the Democratic primary as there were for "ceasefire" and this is in one of the most liberal parts of New Hampshire

— Swann Marcus (@SwannMarcus89) January 24, 2024

The argument now seems to be that Biden supporters secretly conspired to organize a write-in campaign for Joe to humiliate top influencers in the anti-Biden hot take community, which is a great new argument.

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) January 24, 2024

illegal coordinate, among voters

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) January 24, 2024

First of all, your numbers are demonstrably wrong. It's approximately 65%. What your calling "other" is the write-ins that haven't been human read yet. About 90% of that 10% will go to Biden's column. He wasn't even on the ballot. He got 2/3rds of the vote. It speaks for itself.

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) January 24, 2024

Thursday Morning Open Thread: Proud to Be A Union ManPost + Comments (213)

Cold Grey Pre-Dawn Open Thread: Further Proof You *Can’t* Fake Smart

by Anne Laurie|  January 25, 20243:54 am| 71 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Trump Crime Cartel, Assholes

lying to a judge is a great idea https://t.co/PiGDehzF4B

— Jean-Michel Connard (@torriangray) January 24, 2024

pic.twitter.com/376974qQqV

— Arthur Dent (@DentArthur2017) January 24, 2024

‘Course, if they could fake smart, they’d probably be beaten to death by their angry colleagues….

The same guy who told Capitol Police to hang themselves. @Dylan4America pic.twitter.com/CGeHTbpoU7

— I wish I was kidding (@AlexisStargazer) January 24, 2024

Cold Grey Pre-Dawn Open Thread: Further Proof You *Can’t* Fake SmartPost + Comments (71)

Readership Capture Open Thread — Music Edition

by Anne Laurie|  January 24, 202410:53 pm| 58 Comments

This post is in: Music, Open Threads, Readership Capture

Bonnie and her band are heading back out on the road this spring on the ‘Just Like That…’ 2024 tour with 27 concerts in the U.S.!! Tickets available at https://t.co/niSiVpRAM7

Photo by Josh Reynolds for @BostonGlobe
— BRHQ pic.twitter.com/cyjUymCJ8Y

— Bonnie Raitt (@TheBonnieRaitt) January 24, 2024

I bought my first music t-shirt at a Bonnie Raitt tour!

Pretty wide range of venues nationwide, running from late April through late June… and a Scalper Prevention Strategies page, too.

I profiled @jasonisbell for GQ. We talked about everything: Southern accents, how to be alone, and working with Martin Scorsese. I had fun. https://t.co/aXvQbLlnsg

— Kaleb Horton (@kalebhorton) January 12, 2024


From GQ, “Jason Isbell is Keeping His Night Job”:

We find a corner table and order lunch. He came to Los Angeles to play at a Robbie Robertson tribute concert, and now he’s got a day off and time to kill while he waits for a flight out of here. Sporting a sharp denim jacket and brand new teeth, 44-year-old Jason Isbell looks Hollywood enough for where we are—the restaurant at the Chateau Marmont—but he doesn’t really act like he belongs here. He speaks low and chooses his words carefully, almost like he’s in church. He’s transparent: “I’ll talk about absolutely anything.” My pastor called it being “the same on both sides of the fence.” This makes it seem obnoxious, even grotesque, that a guy at the next table is hollering about being friends with Elon Musk and going skydiving with Richard Branson…

Weathervanes, Isbell’s ninth and most recent album with his band The 400 Unit, is one of his best: unflinching, emotive, literary work by a songwriter still looking for, and finding, new mountains to climb. Hell of an accomplishment for a dude who writes music like he’s been doing this for, conservatively, 50 years longer than he has. (Two of the songs he wrote when he was with the Drive-By Truckers in the early aughts, “The Day John Henry Died” and “Goddamn Lonely Love,” sound like the work of an old folk master, or at least a soulful middle-aged troubadour with an expansive and magnanimous view of human foibles. He was 25.)

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This new one is a remarkable piece of work, a collection of snapshots and meditations on opioid addiction, being a parent in a country where people shoot up schools all the time for no reason, loneliness, alienation, religion, tradition, southern domesticity, and the blinding terror of being alive at all. It’s a miracle it exists because it’s a miracle he’s sitting next to me. This is a version of Jason Isbell who didn’t die in 2012, the version of Jason Isbell who won the war against the alcoholism that very nearly killed him, the one who made it to the other side…

Weathervanes dropped this past June and propelled him into what’s become his biggest year yet. He’s up for three Grammys next month. He got those new teeth (more on that later, and it’s a bigger deal than you’d think). He was the subject of the HBO documentary Running With Our Eyes Closed, an unflinching, sometimes uncomfortable close-up on his work-life balance with his wife, musician Amanda Shires.

“The documentary was a pain in the ass for me. I’ll never go back and watch it again,” he says, flat and careful. “But we told people the truth, and it was good they saw that, because that’s the job.”

Let’s be real, though—most of these achievements are logical next steps, if you’re in Isbell’s position and the stars align. Actually acting in a movie, a Martin Scorsese movie, is like going from a trampoline to skydiving. And it’s not just any Martin Scorsese movie, it’s Killers of the Flower Moon, a late-career masterpiece from a great auteur and arguably the best movie of 2023. (As of today, it’s now streaming on Apple TV+, which means you can pause it, so you’re out of excuses not to see it.)…

Readership Capture Open Thread — Music EditionPost + Comments (58)

War for Ukraine Day 700: Odesa in the Crosshairs & Murkiness Surrounding the Downed IL-26

by Adam L Silverman|  January 24, 20248:45 pm| 47 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Screen shot of new artwork by NEIVANMADE. The background is black. In the bottom foreground are grey Ukrainian homes and apartment buildings being bombarded by red Russian missiles with the Special Military Operation "Z" symbol on them. Above the missiles, written in red is the word "Ruzzians". Below the buildings being attacked is the statement "Turns Homes Into Graves".

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Russia opened up on Odesa earlier this evening local time.

Odesa tonight pic.twitter.com/6I1pfIipkb

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) January 24, 2024

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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Ukraine has overcome a tremendous path, stood firm and must defend itself – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

24 January 2024 – 23:20

Dear Ukrainians!

The 700th day of this war – a very difficult day.

First. I summoned Umerov, Zaluzhnyi, Shaptala, Budanov and Maliuk – they reported on the situation with the aircraft and the exchange.

It is obvious that the Russians are messing with the lives of Ukrainian captives, the feelings of their relatives, and the emotions of our society.

All clear facts must be established. To the extent possible, given that the aircraft crashed on Russian territory – beyond our control.

“Facts” is the key word now.

I heard a report from the Commander-in-Chief and the General Staff on the use of the Air Force. The Main Intelligence Directorate is clarifying the fate of all captives. The Security Service of Ukraine is investigating all the circumstances. I have instructed the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine to provide our partners with the information available to Ukraine. Our state will insist on an international investigation.

Second. Today there were reports on the situation on the frontline – a key focus area. Special attention was paid to Avdiivka, other positions in Donetsk region, as well as the Kupyansk direction.

We are doing everything to strengthen our warriors.

Third. The U.S. Senate committee has adopted an important decision on the confiscation of Russian assets, which is a completely fair step. Russia must feel the real cost of its aggression the most, and we in Ukraine are truly grateful to all those who are helping to find, freeze and prepare the confiscation of assets of the Russian state and its associates. I thank everyone in the U.S. Congress who cares about protecting justice.

Fourth. I spoke with the German Chancellor. The topics are quite obvious. I expressed gratitude for the relations we have achieved, for the support and cooperation. It is very important that Germany steadfastly and fundamentally defends Europe – freedom and stability on our continent. The democratic system in Europe can only be preserved if Germany continues to be a reliable defender of democracy.

We discussed further cooperation with Mr. Chancellor. In particular, our defense – first and foremost, of course, protection against Russian missiles and drones. Germany has already saved thousands of Ukrainian lives. We are preparing new joint steps as well.

We also discussed the economy and political interaction at the level of the entire European Union. In particular, this concerns the macrofinancial sector.

I am also grateful to Olaf, to Mr. Chancellor, for his willingness to work on a security agreement based on the corresponding G7 Declaration.

One more thing.

700 days of full-scale war – the war of these Russian savages against Ukraine and life itself. Another Russian strike on Odesa – missiles, “Shahed” drones. Shelling of Kherson and the region. Nikopol, Dnipro, other cities of Dnipropetrovsk region. Our Donetsk region.

Ukraine has overcome a tremendous path, stood firm and must defend itself. It must defend our people and the interests of our state.

I have just signed a decree to honor our warriors with state awards. 243 of our servicemen from different brigades – combat brigades. In total, more than 69 thousand of our defenders from the Defense and Security Forces of Ukraine have been awarded: Armed Forces, National Guard, border guards, intelligence, police and other elements of our defense forces. I am grateful to each and every one of them for their fortitude.

Glory to our people! 

Glory to Ukraine!

The cost I:

Colonel Oleg Babii, the Hero of Ukraine and scout of the @DI_Ukraine.

Together with his group, they destroyed three russian Tu-22M3 bombers in the deep rear of the enemy. Ukrainian scouts passed more than 600 km of enemy territory on foot. Returning from the task, the… pic.twitter.com/IppuVsYHFM

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) January 24, 2024

Colonel Oleg Babii, the Hero of Ukraine and scout of the @DI_Ukraine.

Together with his group, they destroyed three russian Tu-22M3 bombers in the deep rear of the enemy. Ukrainian scouts passed more than 600 km of enemy territory on foot. Returning from the task, the reconnaissance group was ambushed and engaged in an unequal battle with the Russian invaders. Covering the departure of his brothers in arms, Oleg Babii was killed.

For his heroic feat, Oleg Babii was awarded the title of Hero of Ukraine with the “Golden Star” order. Posthumously. Glory to Heroes!

The cost II:

In his evening address, Zelensky updated the death toll from yesterday’s Russian air attacks across Ukraine: 18 people killed when 40 missiles struck residential buildings in several cities. https://t.co/OPvZ999GfR

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) January 24, 2024

Here’s a little good news:

GREAT NEWS!
The 15 RQ-35 Heidrun reconnaissance drones that we have been raising funds for are already in Ukraine!
Thank you ALL for your constant support of Ukraine and its defenders. 🇺🇦🇺🇸
Join me in the fight of light against darkness: https://t.co/MnfXssFGLY pic.twitter.com/qVlpL6NV4o

— Mark Hamill (@MarkHamill) January 23, 2024

A bit more:

German Defense Minister Pistorius announced that Germany will deliver six Sea King Mk41 helicopters to Ukraine. They will be delivered in the 2nd quarter of this year, including spare parts, accessories and training.

Source: Deutschlandfunk #Germany #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/AqUa4jnh6D

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) January 23, 2024

More:

During the #Ramstein18 meeting, Minister of @NationalDefence of Canada, @BillBlair, announced a new donation of 10 Multirole Boats from Zodiac Hurricane Technologies, valued at approximately $20 million.
Canada will also provide civilian instructors, planes, and support staff… https://t.co/YgyQHV4IZJ

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) January 23, 2024

During the #Ramstein18 meeting, Minister of @NationalDefence of Canada, @BillBlair, announced a new donation of 10 Multirole Boats from Zodiac Hurricane Technologies, valued at approximately $20 million.
Canada will also provide civilian instructors, planes, and support staff within the F-16 Training Coalition.

Thank you, friends!
We appreciate your staunch support!
🇺🇦🤝🇨🇦

And a bit more:

Denmark donates DKK 91 million ($13 million) to support the development of Ukrainian cyber defense and IT. The donation is made under the auspices of the IT coalition.

We are grateful to our Danish partners for their unwavering support!
Thank you, friends!
🇺🇦🤝🇩🇰

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) January 24, 2024

And even more:

The United Kingdom is a true friend of Ukraine.
Thank you for your unwavering support and significant contribution to our defense capabilities.
🇺🇦🤝🇬🇧 https://t.co/XNxNiBS8Sf

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) January 23, 2024

So Russia claimed that Ukraine shot down a Russian IL-26 carrying Ukrainian POWs headed for a prisoner exchange.

For those who haven't seen this yet, the Ukrainska Pravda backtracked from this claim regarding the Ukrainian military's role.
The Ukrainian military says they're looking into the situation.

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) January 24, 2024

Here is the statement from Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence:

The statement by HUR is quite ambiguous. Reads like Russians have purposefully set up a trap knowing Ukraine would attack a plane in the vicinity that has not been designated as carrying pows. I'm not sure if Russia normally flies planes in this area.https://t.co/nCyYtOejsK pic.twitter.com/Zkr8MeWbhV

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) January 24, 2024

It appears that several of the names of the POWs supposedly killed on the plane that went down over Belgorod today have already been returned back to Ukraine.

Fourth: Where are the 74 bodies? pic.twitter.com/5u2r2dZjqK

— Sofia (@SlavaUk30722777) January 24, 2024

Sixth: Here is the President of Somalia giving putin his condolences

"I heard about the crash of the plane, and I would like to express my sincere condolences on behalf of myself and the people for the death of the Russian soldiers" pic.twitter.com/CKAXF5DBQR

— Sofia (@SlavaUk30722777) January 24, 2024

Seventh: Here is more footage from the crash site. No bodies. I have unfortunately seen footage of when russia shot down the Dutch MH17, and there were bodies everywhere pic.twitter.com/QjmKFnqpN8

— Sofia (@SlavaUk30722777) January 24, 2024

So far, I find it doubtful that the downed Russian aircraft was transporting 65 Ukrainan POWs 'for prisoner swap' conveyed by just 3 Russians.

It's also not highly probable that Ukraine's military had no idea that a certain Il-76 was carrying POW. Especially now that Russians…

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) January 24, 2024

So far, I find it doubtful that the downed Russian aircraft was transporting 65 Ukrainan POWs ‘for prisoner swap’ conveyed by just 3 Russians.

It’s also not highly probable that Ukraine’s military had no idea that a certain Il-76 was carrying POW. Especially now that Russians even claim there were suddenly other POW aircraft, too.

You know, prisoner swaps between Ukraine and Russia are complex and highly sensitive operations in which every breath is reconciled between the two sides for weeks, if not months.

I find it doubtful that in such a major swap involving more than one aircraft full of Ukrainian POWs, the Ukrainian military had no idea about the massive air transfer to Belgorod.

Possible, but not likely.

Lastly, if I understand the situation right, the Il-76 was downed shortly after takeoff near the town of Yablonovo northeast of Belgorod.

So it was supposedly leaving Belgorod, not arriving (I am not sure about this). Was it really about a major prisoner swap?

But… let’s wait and see what really happened.

Either way, any word coming out of the Russian military’s mouth deserves ZERO trust.

Now we wait to see what new evidence comes to light.

Kharkiv:

Heart of Kharkiv is bleeding. To all those talking about negotiations and not provoking Putin, I invite you to witness the reality in Kharkiv. pic.twitter.com/G5np6ftKDn

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) January 24, 2024

Avdiivka:

Situation taking a turn for the worse in Avdiivka. https://t.co/6cSw6B5CQ0

— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) January 24, 2024

Here’s the rest of Tatarigami’s assessment from the Thread Reader App:

2/ While the northern part of Avdiivka is shielded by the AKHZ (industrial buildings), the southern area is comprised of one to two-story houses susceptible to artillery fire. If unable to capture the area, russians erase it with artillery, deploy infantry, and seize the rubble. 
3/ The visible artillery strikes, moving from the outskirts to residential areas, indicate the shift. Eventually, the damage makes defense challenging. The same problem extends to nearby multi-story apartment buildings targeted by previous Russian FAB hits.Image
4/ The situation on the flanks remains more stable, enabling Ukrainian forces to defend Avdiivka. Sattelite imagery shows a continued shift of artillery fire north of Avdiivka, targeting areas near Stepove, Berdychi, Novobakhmutivka, and NovokalynivkaImage
5/ In summary, Avdiivka’s situation has worsened due to limited artillery ammo, a decrease in counter-battery fire, and a lack of reinforcements. Russia exploits these gaps, leveraging its personnel and ammo numbers advantage. 
6/ Resurgence of Helicopter Operations

Our team previously identified a FARP (Forward Arming and Refueling Point) helicopter base in Strilkove. Following Ukraine’s ATACMS strikes on airfields in Luhansk and Berdyansk, the base was abandoned and remained unused until recently.Image

7/ Recent imagery from January 2024 reveals the presence of Russian helicopters at the base. Analysis over multiple days indicates that Russians keep no more than 3-4 helicopters at a time. Additionally, the helicopters appear to be more dispersedImage
8/ We continue to emphasize the need for a sufficient supply of weaponry to Ukraine to achieve a shift in the balance of power. Small numbers provide a short-term advantage, with operational success possible under the right conditions, but the enemy uses this time to adapt. 
9/ Kindly consider supporting us through BuyMeaCoffee, as our expenses rely solely on your public support, and maintaining quality without financing is still challenging for us.

Thank You

Tatarigami_UA is All Source Public IntelligenceSatellite imagery and other expenses https://www.buymeacoffee.com/frontelligence

Ukrinform has the details of what the Russian Navy is doing off the coast of Russian occupied Crimea:

As of 08:00 Monday, January 22, Russia has deployed 13 warships in the Black Sea, including two Kalibr cruise missile carriers, with a total salvo of up to 14 missiles.
That’s according to the Ukrainian Navy Command, Ukrinform reports.

Russia also retains one warship each in the Sea of Azov and the Mediterranean, with no missile carriers among them.

As Ukrinform reported earlier, as of the morning of January 21, Russia had eight warships on combat duty in the Black Sea, including a Kalibr carrier.

Mariupol:

Incredible. Russian realtors lead potential buyers through destroyed apartments in Mariupol. Owners have left or got killed. Realtors recommend to invest in “razrushka” (a new word derived from “razrukha”, ruins).

Vultures… Disgusting vultures. #StandWithUkraine pic.twitter.com/Ot5rXaa1VB

— olexander scherba🇺🇦 (@olex_scherba) January 24, 2024

Tuapse, Krasnodar Krai, Russia:

/2. Another video from Tuapse as well as geolocation of the fire.
(44.1082456, 39.1026676) pic.twitter.com/yA3YHm5qaa

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) January 24, 2024

Tuapse, Special Military Operation Zone. pic.twitter.com/hxMF0jcQl4

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) January 24, 2024

I see that Watergirl covered the news that the Senate Foreign Relations Committee had moved a bill out of that committee to allow for the US government to seize frozen Russian assets and transfer them to Ukraine. A companion bill was moved out of the equivalent House committee months ago. While it is unclear if Schumer and McConnell can pull enough GOP votes to get the Senate version past the 60 vote cloture threshold, the bill is DOA in the House. It will never be brought to the floor for an up or down vote. It will die somewhere between the House Foreign Relations Committee and the House Rules Committee. Senator Cardin gets an A for effort and enthusiasm. Unfortunately, this will never become law.

Which brings us to what I think this is a very good question:

https://twitter.com/EHunterChristie/status/1748632564678451526

Illia Ponomarenko has some thoughts on the matter:

This chronic lack of resolve, leadership, and strategic vision will bury the free world.

Systemic fear of responsibility and historical decisions, trying to hold on to the comfort zone as hard as possible — this is why we are where we are now. And the free world is at its…

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) January 23, 2024

 

This chronic lack of resolve, leadership, and strategic vision will bury the free world.

Systemic fear of responsibility and historical decisions, trying to hold on to the comfort zone as hard as possible — this is why we are where we are now. And the free world is at its weakest throughout the entire post-1991 era.

That’s the endless procrastination, security escapism, and over-compromising at any cost (upon someone else).

It’s painful to realize that in February 2022, much of the Western decision-making elite was generally ready to come to terms with Russia’s complete takeover of Ukraine, which seemed hardly preventable. But a lot of things on the Russian side suddenly went very wrong.

Ukraine unexpectedly (for some) prevailed at the Battle of Kyiv and effectively derailed the central axis of Russia’s blitzkrieg.

The ‘special military operation’ failed, and Russia’s full-scale, protracted war on Ukraine followed. And as you know, the entire history of the war is Ukraine and its friends beating their heads against the wall of the ‘don’t-provoke-Putin’ attitude.

Again and again. It started working only as late as springtime and summertime 2022, when the Battle of Donbas was at its horrific peak and when it became apparent that Russia was not stopping and Ukraine was not going down just like that.

First, it’s tank killers, then artillery, then armored vehicles, radars, ammo, rocket systems, radars, tanks, air & missile defense, now it’s F-16. And with every single weapon and hardware class and type, there has been generally the very same scheme:

1. “Ukraine will never get X and Y, that’s a major escalation, that’s too complicated and too expensive for Ukraine to use”
2. Months-long deliberations, denial, and discussions
3. Ukraine eventually ends up getting X and Y many months late and demonstrates outstanding results on battlefields
4. Russian ‘red lines’ end up being empty threats, and Russia’s military gets a painful punch in the gut
5. *repeat with another weapon*

Do I need to tell the story of a handful of HIMARS systems that effectively derailed Russia’s frontline logistics and its late summer 2022 campaign? Do I need to remind anyone how long Ukraine was denied getting MIM-104 Patriot systems that are now demonstrating the most excellent results in their entire operational history?

Again and again, with every weapon type and class that Ukraine asked for, there was the need to break through the obsession with “escalation management” (that was again and again proven totally inconsistent) and move forward.

With all due respect to President Biden (who has done a lot for Ukraine!), when POTUS spends more than a year saying no and then eventually gives up to the green light on European F-16s for Ukraine and authorizes the transfer of just 20 outdated ATACMS missiles (that nonetheless immediately wipe out key Russian airfields) – that doesn’t look like a way to resolve the problem.

And that’s in the middle of the worst European war since Adolf Hitler in which Ukraine defends itself against one of the world’s biggest military powers with one of the world’s biggest military budgets.

Things have gone pretty absurd by now.

As a result of Ukraine’s successful campaigns in 2022, we all were too quick to optimistically declare that “Putin has already lost,” that what needed to be done had been done, and that the worst European war since Adolf Hitler would somehow go away.

In reality, endless deliberations and obsessive 5D chess to save Putin’s ass from falling entirely into Chinese hands effectively saved the Kremlin from a proper and resolute military defeat in Ukraine that could have disabled the Kremlin from new acts of aggression for decades to come.

Putin was given almost two years to recover from his disastrous early failure. The Kremlin rebooted its economy, adapted it to international sanctions, found new markets to sell gas and oil on, relaunched its military production industry, and made an alliance with Iran and North Korea to get drones, missiles, and ammo and replenish its emptied Soviet stocks. And you know what?

They ended up being very fine with this war. Russian people, being what it is, are silent or widely supportive. The poor and destitute are happy to kill Ukrainians and die for an equivalent of a U.S. blue-collar salary.

The rich and powerful are now having a cut in the giant black hole of budget spending that any war is, and entire Russian industries are thriving thanks to a massive war. Nobody gives a shit about Russia’s insane loss of life not seen since World War II.

From the Western side, we have a historically unique situation. Not a single American or European soldier now has to die in the worst European war since Adolf Hitler. Western defense industries have prospects for gargantuan, long-term contracts to support Ukraine in war and its subsequent post-war defense development.

Ukraine, having as little as it has, demonstrates outstanding battlefield results thanks to the exceptional heroism and dedication of its military. Ukraine asks for money and arms to deal with the greatest European security threat of the 21st century all alone.

But no, the free world keeps impeding itself and fearing getting out of its long-ingrained comfort zone.

And yeah – while the West is just dreaming of getting back to normal, Russia’s propaganda meta-world is having a full-scale war on the entire West. Try and watch Russian TV for five minutes if you don’t trust me.

The Kremlin has recovered from the initial shock of the early setback in Ukraine and has made this “civilization war with the West” a cornerstone of its ideology. It’s now their foremost instrument of holding power over Russia.

They’re not landing on the Moon, or building a quantum computer, or making Russia home to the world’s top five universities. They’ve been investing billions for decades to propagate hatred, revanchism, Soviet Stalinism, domination, and territorial expansion based on “taking what’s ours.”

Poor, destitute, and revenge-seeking, Russia gets back to the state of the besieged fortress of Eurasia that will always be at war with Oceania. They need triumphant victories over the heinous West that owes it everything, they need “new territories” (even in the form of senselessly desolated cities turned into mass graves, you know).

They need war as such.

So of course, why would Moscow want a real ‘ceasefire’ and ‘peace’ in Ukraine at the present status quo — if they obviously see that they can intimidate and wear out the West into giving up on Ukraine completely?

As @FRHoffmann1 very correctly points out, Russia’s main conclusion behind this war is that the West is critically short of resolve.

The Kremlin quite expectedly sees weakness in this endless drama over the Ukraine aid. That’s a pleasant invitation for more aggression because this works. What they’ve seen and are seeing makes them believe NATO will very likely back off first for the sake of a short-living illusion of its peace of mind and safety.

And yeah, they basically don’t even need to reinstate their military power decimated by Ukraine — seeing how weak the West may be, they know that nuclear threats and blackmailing may work.

And yeah, again, there will be a lot of galaxy brans yelling “Send not a single rifle round to Tallinn/Riga/Vilnius/Chishinau/Helsinki/Warsaw and roll back to 1997/1989/1945/1913 for peace!!”

This reminds me of a situation in which a sick person continuously ignores his or her increasingly dangerous symptoms. Until he or she just can’t anymore. Or until it’s too late.

Support my work: https://buymeacoffee.com/saintanger

Here’s the thread that he’s referring to via the Thread Reader App:

In this thread, I will explain why we are much closer to war with 🇷🇺 than most people realize and why our time window for rearmament is shorter than many believe. In my opinion, we have at best 2-3 years to re-establish deterrence vis-à-vis 🇷🇺. Here’s why 👇 1/20Image
One common mistake in analyzing the threat posed by Russia is falling into the trap of ‘mirror-imaging’. This means assuming that Russia views a potential conflict with us in the same way we view a potential conflict with them. Nothing could be further from the truth. 2/20 
In addition, it is important to be cautious about extrapolating too many lessons from Ukraine & assuming that a war with 🇷🇺 would unfold in a similar manner, albeit on a larger scale. In reality, a war between NATO & Russia would likely take on a different form altogether. 3/20 
🇷🇺 does not plan for the type of large-scale conventional war with NATO that we are currently seeing in Ukraine & for which we are primarily preparing. Already before taking substantial losses on the 🇺🇦 battlefield, 🇷🇺 knew that it would be inferior in such a scenario. 4/20 
Russian thinking on a war with NATO revolves around the concept of escalation control and escalation management. Russia’s primary objective in a war with NATO is to effectively manage escalation and bring the war to an early end on terms that are favorable to Russia. 5/20 
Terminating hostilities early is necessary, given that 🇷🇺 must secure a victorous outcome before NATO’s conventional superiority comes to bear, most notably that of the United States. Two key concepts play a crucial role: de-escalation strikes and aggressive sanctuarization. 6/20 
Rather than comprehensively defeating NATO in a prolonged ground war, similar to what we see in Ukraine, Russian doctrine suggests that Russia would attempt to coerce NATO into submission by signaling the ability to inflict progressively greater amounts of damage. 7/20 
This would entail, in particular, long-range strikes against critical civilian infrastructure across European NATO countries early on. The message to NATO governments: Don’t come to the support of your Eastern European allies, unless you want to see your population suffer. 8/20 
Simultaneously, Russia would extend its nuclear umbrella over any NATO territory it managed to capture in an initial assault. This sends a second message: Any endeavor to retake that territory, particularly by external NATO forces (USA), will result in nuclear escalation. 9/20 
The psychological fear of escalation, which may ultimately result in unacceptable damage, is supposed to open the door for negotiations about the future of NATO and the security architecture in Europe – of course, on Russia’s terms. 10/20 
This type of warfighting scenario is not a contest of forces, but primarily a risk-taking competition. The question becomes: Who will be the first to back down when confronted with the prospect of largescale war, including potential exchanges of strategic nuclear warheads? 11/20 
As Cold War historians know, the balance of military power is not deterministic of outcomes in risk-taking competitions. Instead, they are often determined by the balance of resolve; i.e., the relative willingness to remain steadfast even as risks are increasing. 12/20 
This is why Russia pursues this type of strategy. Russia does not need to match NATO’s conventional power. As long as NATO gives in first amid mounting psychological pressure due to a lack of resolve, Russia can walk away with a victory. 13/20 
Here’s the thing: The ongoing war in Ukraine is teaching Russia a crucial lesson – that the West lacks resolve. Domestic disunity and endless discussions about escalation only reinforce Russia’s belief that NATO will back down when push comes to shove. 14/20 
This means Russia does not have to wait until its conventional power is reconstituted. Scenarios where we have 5-10 years to rearm following the end of the war are way too optimistic, in my opinion. 15/20 
I am with the Eastern European states that we have at best 2-3 years from today to re-establish a credible deterrence posture vis-à-vis Russia. Otherwise, we run the grave risk that Russia is going to challenge us, sooner rather than later. 16/20 
NATO must credibly deny Russia the ability to seize any substantial part of NATO territory or to threaten strikes against NATO critical infrastructure. This is needed to escape the coercive conundrum that aggressive sancturization and de-escalation strikes pose. 17/20 
We must also have a serious discussion not only about how to deter a war with 🇷🇺 but also about how to fight one. Are we prepared to retaliate against Russian critical civilian infrastructure in case Russia strikes ours first? How do we react to Russian nuclear first use? 18/20 
Our lack of preparedness, both in the physcial space but also in terms of our cognitive ability to think through these scenarios, is encouraging 🇷🇺. Since 2014, Russian intellectuals have debated extensively and publicly how to win a war against NATO. Where is our debate? 19/20 
What we need, especially in Europe, is whole-of-society effort to get our affairs in order. There’s no denying that this will come with a significant cost, but I fail to see any other viable option. Considering worst-case scenarios, as we should, time has already run out. 20/20

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron.

First, some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense:

Animals always trust kind people.

📸: 22nd Mechanized Brigade pic.twitter.com/87VAMJIuhk

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) January 24, 2024

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok!

@patron__dsns

Де моя приватність?😑 #песпатрон

♬ оригінальний звук – Vitalik

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

Where is my privacy? 😑 #песпатрон

They do say that cleanliness is next to dogliness!

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 700: Odesa in the Crosshairs & Murkiness Surrounding the Downed IL-26Post + Comments (47)

Sky Turd – I don’t know if you can find these things, but my heart is riding on your wings

by @heymistermix.com|  January 24, 20246:35 pm| 71 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Just a brief note on the absolute failure and disaster that is the 737 MAX program at Boeing.  It’s looking like the door plug blew out of Alaska Air 1282 because the 4 bolts that were supposed to retain it weren’t installed.  It’s also looking like quality control across the Boeing 737 line is a sham, a farce, a disaster — because Spirit, the contractor in Wichita that makes the 737 fuselage, is shitty, and the Renton assembly factory has to fix all of Spirits fuckups, and they’re overwhelmed.

If that’s true — and I’m going to embed a comment that Rayne at Emptywheel found from a purported Boeing engineer that I think is probably correct, below — then every 737 MAX must be torn apart and completely re-inspected.   What else did they miss?

As a recreational reader of airplane history, this has never happened before.  There have been failures of certain parts (737 rudder actuators), certain designs (Comet, Lockheed Electra), of maintenance (American’s DC-10 engine maintenance, Alaska Air’s MD-80 jackscrew), but I don’t know of any instance where assembly QA was so bad that parts could have been left off.

Comment after the break:

show full post on front page

This comment appears on a Leeham News story on the 737 MAX:

Current Boeing employee here – I will save you waiting two years for the NTSB report to come out and give it to you for free: the reason the door blew off is stated in black and white in Boeings own records. It is also very, very stupid and speaks volumes about the quality culture at certain portions of the business.

A couple of things to cover before we begin:

Q1) Why should we believe you?
A) You shouldn’t, I’m some random throwaway account, do your own due diligence. Others who work at Boeing can verify what I say is true, but all I ask is you consider the following based on its own merits.

Q2) Why are you doing this?
A) Because there are many cultures at Boeing, and while the executive culture may be throughly compromised since we were bought by McD, there are many other people who still push for a quality product with cutting edge design. My hope is that this is the wake up call that finally forces the Board to take decisive action, and remove the executives that are resisting the necessary cultural changes to return to a company that values safety and quality above schedule.

With that out of the way… why did the left hand (LH) mid-exit door plug blow off of the 737-9 registered as N704AL? Simple- as has been covered in a number of articles and videos across aviation channels, there are 4 bolts that prevent the mid-exit door plug from sliding up off of the door stop fittings that take the actual pressurization loads in flight, and these 4 bolts were not installed when Boeing delivered the airplane, our own records reflect this.

The mid-exit doors on a 737-9 of both the regular and plug variety come from Spirit already installed in what is supposed to be the final configuration and in the Renton factory, there is a job for the doors team to verify this “final” install and rigging meets drawing requirements. In a healthy production system, this would be a “belt and suspenders” sort of check, but the 737 production system is quite far from healthy, its a rambling, shambling, disaster waiting to happen. As a result, this check job that should find minimal defects has in the past 365 calendar days recorded 392 nonconforming findings on 737 mid fuselage door installations (so both actual doors for the high density configs, and plugs like the one that blew out). That is a hideously high and very alarming number, and if our quality system on 737 was healthy, it would have stopped the line and driven the issue back to supplier after the first few instances. Obviously, this did not happen. Now, on the incident aircraft this check job was completed on 31 August 2023, and did turn up discrepancies, but on the RH side door, not the LH that actually failed. I could blame the team for missing certain details, but given the enormous volume of defects they were already finding and fixing, it was inevitable something would slip through- and on the incident aircraft something did. I know what you are thinking at this point, but grab some popcorn because there is a plot twist coming up.

The next day on 1 September 2023 a different team (remember 737s flow through the factory quite quickly, 24 hours completely changes who is working on the plane) wrote up a finding for damaged and improperly installed rivets on the LH mid-exit door of the incident aircraft.

A brief aside to explain two of the record systems Boeing uses in production. The first is a program called CMES which stands for something boring and unimportant but what is important is that CMES is the sole authoritative repository for airplane build records (except on 787 which uses a different program). If a build record in CMES says something was built, inspected, and stamped in accordance with the drawing, then the airplane damn well better be per drawing. The second is a program called SAT, which also stands for something boring and unimportant but what is important is that SAT is *not* an authoritative records system, its a bullentin board where various things affecting the airplane build get posted about and updated with resolutions. You can think of it sort of like a idiots version of Slack or something. Wise readers will already be shuddering and wondering how many consultants were involved, because, yes SAT is a *management visibilty tool*. Like any good management visibilty tool, SAT can generate metrics, lots of metrics, and oh God do Boeing managers love their metrics. As a result, SAT postings are the primary topic of discussion at most daily status meetings, and the whole system is perceived as being extremely important despite, I reiterate, it holding no actual authority at all.

We now return to our incident aircraft, which was written up for having defective rivets on the LH mid-exit door. Now as is standard practice kn Renton (but not to my knowledge in Everett on wide bodies) this write-up happened in two forms, one in CMES, which is the correct venue, and once in SAT to “coordinate the response” but really as a behind-covering measure so the manager of the team that wrote it can show his boss he’s shoved the problem onto someone else. Because there are so many problems with the Spirit build in the 737, Spirit has teams on site in Renton performing warranty work for all of their shoddy quality, and this SAT promptly gets shunted into their queue as a warranty item. Lots of bickering ensues in the SAT messages, and it takes a bit for Spirit to get to the work package. Once they have finished, they send it back to a Boeing QA for final acceptance, but then Malicious Stupid Happens! The Boeing QA writes another record in CMES (again, the correct venue) stating (with pictures) that Spirit has not actually reworked the discrepant rivets, they *just painted over the defects*. In Boeing production speak, this is a “process failure”. For an A&P mechanic at an airline, this would be called “federal crime”.

Presented with evidence of their malfeasance, Spirit reopens the package and admits that not only did they not rework the rivets properly, there is a damaged pressure seal they need to replace (who damaged it, and when it was damaged is not clear to me). The big deal with this seal, at least according to frantic SAT postings, is the part is not on hand, and will need to be ordered, which is going to impact schedule, and (reading between the lines here) Management is Not Happy.

However, more critical for purposes of the accident investigation, the pressure seal is unsurprisingly sandwiched between the plug and the fuselage, and you cannot replace it without opening the door plug to gain access. All of this conversation is documented in increasingly aggressive posts in the SAT, but finally we get to the damning entry which reads something along the lines of “coordinating with the doors team to determine if the door will have to be removed entirely, or just opened. If it is removed then a Removal will have to be written.” Note: a Removal is a type of record in CMES that requires formal sign off from QA that the airplane been restored to drawing requirements.

If you have been paying attention to this situation closely, you may be able to spot the critical error: regardless of whether the door is simply opened or removed entirely, the 4 retaining bolts that keep it from sliding off of the door stops have to be pulled out. A removal should be written in either case for QA to verify install, but as it turns out, someone (exactly who will be a fun question for investigators) decides that the door only needs to be opened, and no formal Removal is generated in CMES (the reason for which is unclear, and a major process failure). Therefore, in the official build records of the airplane, a pressure seal that cannot be accessed without opening the door (and thereby removing retaining bolts) is documented as being replaced, but the door is never officially opened and thus no QA inspection is required.
This entire sequence is documented in the SAT, and the nonconformance records in CMES address the damaged rivets and pressure seal, but at no point is the verification job reopened, or is any record of removed retention bolts created, despite it this being a physical impossibility. Finally with Spirit completing their work to Boeing QAs satisfaction, the two rivet-related records in CMES are stamped complete, and the SAT closed on 19 September 2023. No record or comment regarding the retention bolts is made.

I told you it was stupid.

So, where are the bolts? Probably sitting forgotten and unlabeled (because there is no formal record number to label them with) on a work-in-progress bench, unless someone already tossed them in the scrap bin to tidy up.

There’s lots more to be said about the culture that enabled this to happened, but thats the basic details of what happened, the NTSB report will say it in more elegant terms in a few years.

I know, it’s an anonymous comment on a blog, but it reads as true to me.

Sky Turd – I don’t know if you can find these things, but my heart is riding on your wingsPost + Comments (71)

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