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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Let there be snark.

Their shamelessness is their super power.

They don’t have outfits that big. nor codpieces that small.

Republican also-rans: four mules fighting over a turnip.

T R E 4 5 O N

This blog will pay for itself.

The republican ‘Pastor’ of the House is an odious authoritarian little creep.

This isn’t Democrats spending madly. This is government catching up.

75% of people clapping liked the show!

I would try pessimism, but it probably wouldn’t work.

Yeah, with this crowd one never knows.

If you still can’t see these things even now, maybe politics isn’t your forte and you should stop writing about it.

Nothing worth doing is easy.

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires republicans to act in good faith.

The revolution will be supervised.

The world has changed, and neither one recognizes it.

Reality always gets a vote in the end.

Seems like a complicated subject, have you tried yelling at it?

President Musk and Trump are both poorly raised, coddled 8 year old boys.

A tremendous foreign policy asset… to all of our adversaries.

America is going up in flames. The NYTimes fawns over MAGA celebrities. No longer a real newspaper.

Something needs to be done about our bogus SCOTUS.

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

“The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits.”

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Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

Open Threads

You are here: Home / Archives for Open Threads

Tuesday Morning Open Thread: The Economy, Still Bangin’

by Anne Laurie|  July 25, 20237:57 am| 279 Comments

This post is in: Biden Administration in Action, C.R.E.A.M., Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Republican Politics

I'm proud to be a Joe Biden Democrat. pic.twitter.com/EudcQ4kiqm

— The Biden Accomplishments Guy (on Threads) (@What46HasDone) July 25, 2023

When firms like Morgan Stanley are praising a Democrat’s handling of the economy, things must REALLY be going well! #Bidenomics pic.twitter.com/emXM8llMgE

— Nick Knudsen ???? (@NickKnudsenUS) July 24, 2023

show full post on front page

(cont.)

"Biden’s Infrastructure Investment & Jobs Act is “driving a boom in large-scale infrastructure,” wrote Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. economist for Morgan Stanley. In addition to infrastructure, “manufacturing construction has shown broad strength,” she wrote"

— Jesse Ferguson (@JesseFFerguson) July 23, 2023

The consensus view now…is that there is no recession coming for the American economy.

A year ago…the consensus view was that a recession was definitely coming…and that the only question was whether it was a soft or hard landing.

?????

— Dominic Chu ?????? (@TheDomino) July 19, 2023

Count on the FTFNYTimes…

hey do you know which outlet it was that spread these things

— Ed Zitron (@edzitron) July 19, 2023

You better contact… the @nytimes … pic.twitter.com/fe0EeEY3GC

— The wind in the Trees (@Psithurismmmmm) July 20, 2023

This is a rhetorical question.

— Ben Collins (@oneunderscore__) July 17, 2023

Meanwhile… Hot take from a ‘Senior Fellow & Director, Center on Opportunity and Social Mobility @AEI‘:

Why stop with lunch when we have breakfast and dinner too? Why stop with kids? Why stop with food? https://t.co/39wEEOrpFQ

— Scott Winship (@swinshi) July 25, 2023

Investing in children’s nutrition is one of the most cost-effective ways we can improve educational outcomes!

— Jean-Michel Connard ?? (@torriangray) July 25, 2023

Tuesday Morning Open Thread: The Economy, Still Bangin’Post + Comments (279)

Monday Evening Open Thread: Speaking of Blockbuster Summer Entertainment…

by Anne Laurie|  July 24, 20236:55 pm| 132 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Elon has been obsessed with calling everything "X," Space X, Model X, X AE A-12, now just X, ever since the rest of the PayPal owners told him it was a stupid name. He's going to erase a globally recognized, culturally impactful brand because he was told "No" 25yrs ago.

Moron. https://t.co/V8ux1eHKvq

— Patrick S. Tomlinson (@stealthygeek) July 23, 2023

Found a dead Twitter on the street. pic.twitter.com/H7BjhFGFeA

— Jason Hazeley (@JasonHazeley) July 12, 2023

It’s all pretty shoddy, but on the other hand, tickets are cheep, you don’t have to put on (or take off) your pants to participate, and the shows run 24/7…

Just spoke to @mattdorsey, the SF Supervisor in the area, who happened to be near the building at lunch. He said he witnessed several self-driving cars become confused by the crane, which was in the street.

"It was very 2023," he said. https://t.co/HdTczCW6O5

— Ryan Mac 🙃 (@RMac18) July 24, 2023

show full post on front page

wait, i’ve got it:

x of all trades, master of none

— Philip Bump (@pbump) July 24, 2023

ELON: "How can we get ad rev up?"

STAFF "We could get rid of the Nazis?

ELON: "What about changing the logo?"

STAFF: "Or stop promoting the alt-right weirdos?"

ELON: "Logo."

STAFF: "Deboost the bluecheck trolls?"

ELON: "LOGO." https://t.co/zHwWGN2ST5

— Rick Wilson (@TheRickWilson) July 23, 2023

The only business instinct Elon Musk's ever had in 30 years is "what if we called it… (sly grin, crossing arms)… X." He's done it at his payments company and car company and rocket ship company and social media app and with his own human child. No one has ever liked it. https://t.co/VWHE8m4ncg

— ℳatt (@matttomic) July 24, 2023

imagine getting a calendar invite to have your performance review in a room called “s3Xy”. imagine how absolutely embarassing this is for anyone left at this company who has any pride at all in their work. https://t.co/qyYksaxFvy

— GOLIKEHELLMACHINE (@golikehellmachi) July 24, 2023

it’s just remarkable, this (x corp) has been his white whale for like, two decades, and it turns out that he set out to sea without a life jacket, a harpoon, a map, a compass or even any sails. just drifting around the harbor, high on research chemicals and cocaine.

— GOLIKEHELLMACHINE (@golikehellmachi) July 24, 2023

one way you know that yaccarino wasn’t even consulted on the rebrand business is that no one with her experience would green light a rebranding to a name that can’t be trademarked (because it’s owned by a competitor) or a logo that can’t be used (you can’t trademark unicode)

— GOLIKEHELLMACHINE (@golikehellmachi) July 24, 2023

they can’t use the @ because someone already has it, can’t trademark the business because a direct competitor owns it, can’t use the logo because it’s not a logo, can’t change the signage because they didn’t get a permit and their landlord probably wouldn’t even let them now

— GOLIKEHELLMACHINE (@golikehellmachi) July 24, 2023

I saw this brain boiling sycophantic dipshittery and now so do you pic.twitter.com/qZVzO9oeA3

— Karl Bode (@KarlBode) July 24, 2023

the really funny thing is that if elon wanted a website called "X" where the only revenue came from shitty scam ads and subscription revenue forked over by his droolingest fans, he could've just started that for like 1/100000th of the cost of buying twitter and ruining it lol

— america's lounge singer (@KrangTNelson) July 23, 2023

His other choices were,… “Edsel”, or “New Coke.” https://t.co/RYDC4h1FfT

— Roshan Rinaldi (@Roshan_Rinaldi) July 24, 2023

The Twitter rebranding as X comparison to New Coke is a good one.

Except Coca-Cola wasn't dumb enough to drop the Coke brand altogether and pretend like their soda was also an ATM machine and iTunes and YouTube and things we can't even imagine yet.

— Zack Hunt (@ZaackHunt) July 24, 2023

Monday Evening Open Thread: Speaking of Blockbuster Summer Entertainment…Post + Comments (132)

War for Ukraine Day 516: Odesa and Her Granaries Remain Russia’s Targets of Choice

by Adam L Silverman|  July 24, 20235:23 pm| 79 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Quick housekeeping note: I’m going to cover a bit of what is going on in Israel at the end of this post. The Bottom Line Up Front from a nat-sec is that imagine if the majority of JSOC, the US Navy, US Marine Corps, and US Army Aviators all resigned effective immediately and significant portions of the Intelligence Community, both ops and analysis, were threatening to do so as well. Right now Israel couldn’t deter a girl scout troupe. While I hope it does not happen, I expect Iran to attack sooner rather than later.

Russia continues to bombard civilian targets in Odesa. Including the granaries and food warehouses.

russian terrorists continue their war on grain. Last night, they attacked the grain infrastructure on the Danube River with Shaheds. Three drones were shot down by air defense. Unfortunately, as a result of the attack, six people were injured and a grain hangar and cargo storage… pic.twitter.com/TY7S0IOvtq

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 24, 2023

russian terrorists continue their war on grain. Last night, they attacked the grain infrastructure on the Danube River with Shaheds. Three drones were shot down by air defense. Unfortunately, as a result of the attack, six people were injured and a grain hangar and cargo storage tanks were destroyed.

The solution to this problem is actually quite simple: a couple of well placed Patriot batteries.

The simple math of war. The issue of protecting the key grain export port of Reni on the border with Romania (NATO) is one additional Patriot or SAMP/T system that will immediately go into operation, as the Ukrainian military knows how to work with these systems. The issue of…

— Михайло Подоляк (@Podolyak_M) July 24, 2023

The simple math of war. The issue of protecting the key grain export port of Reni on the border with Romania (NATO) is one additional Patriot or SAMP/T system that will immediately go into operation, as the Ukrainian military knows how to work with these systems. The issue of protecting the historic center of Odesa and the Black Sea ports, which are strategically important for the Global South, is virtually the same. The value to global markets of losing these ports is thousands of times greater than the cost of just two missile defense systems. Conclusions? They are obvious.

Of course the issue here is getting the US or one of our allies to send a couple of more Patriot batteries and the ammo for them into theater ASAP.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

Russia must lose every day – that’s fair – address by the President of Ukraine

24 July 2023 – 21:22

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

A brief report on this day.

I held a special format of the Staff meeting. We focused mostly on frontline issues.

There were reports from the Commander-in-Chief, the commanders of the main directions, and the Chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate. Maximum attention is paid to those areas where we are moving forward and those where Ukrainian forces are on the defensive. In all areas, the first task is to destroy the occupiers, their equipment, supplies, warehouses, and headquarters as much as possible. Russia must lose every day – that’s fair. And I thank all our warriors who ensure this: all our soldiers, sailors, petty officers, sergeants, officers and generals. It is very important that our defense and security forces, our entire state, work as a single team for the sake of defense.

At the Staff meeting, of course, we also thoroughly discuss all issues related to protection against Russian missile and drone terror. Protection of our people, our cities, our ports, the Black Sea grain corridor. We are preparing powerful responses to Russian terrorists’ attacks.

I also held several political meetings, in particular on the European Union and our integration. This year we are to start negotiations on membership. Ukraine is fully prepared for this – we are doing what is necessary on our part. And we are doing everything possible to ensure that the EU is also fully prepared. Exactly this year.

I also held a major meeting with government officials and our experts on international relations on the export of Ukrainian agricultural products through the territory of European countries. There is a very important agreement with the European Commission regarding September 15, which is the last day of restrictions on our grain exports, and we believe that the European side will fulfill its obligations on this date, when the temporary restrictions will cease to be in effect. Any extension of the restrictions is absolutely unacceptable and outright non-European. Europe has the institutional capacity to act more rationally than to close a border for a particular product. We are working very actively with everyone to find a solution that is in line with the spirit of our Europe.

And one more thing.

Occasionally, once a month, I send a special letter of gratitude to those warriors who have distinguished themselves on the frontline. Last week, I sent such a written gratitude to our glorious 56th Mariupol separate motorized infantry brigade. To all its warriors and brigade commanders. And today I received the chevron of the 56th brigade – it is already here in my office, on the board with other chevrons. And a flag signed by the guys.

Thank you very much, warriors! Thank you very much, heroes!

Glory to all who fight for Ukraine! Thank you to everyone who makes Ukraine stronger!

Glory to Ukraine!

Odesa:

More footage of damaged Odesa city center 💔 pic.twitter.com/CmprEKNj4c

— UkraineWorld (@ukraine_world) July 23, 2023

Railworkers from all over Ukraine unite to support Odesa: 'Stay strong, people of Odessa, you are resilient! And we stand with you!'. In Kharkiv, Dnipro, Uzhhorod, Lviv, and Kyiv they say this when sending trains to unbreakable Odesa. Ukraine stands united 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/l5YpyT7QGC

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) July 24, 2023

Bakhmut:

Wow, Deep State detects pretty solid Ukrainian advances south of Bakhmut over the last 24 hours.
The situation near Karmazynivka (the Svatove sector) where Russians had a dangerous leap forward the other day, seems to be stabilizing. pic.twitter.com/5ESI0DIdrx

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) July 24, 2023

What’s left of Bakhmut.
The hellscape of Russian liberation. pic.twitter.com/rXqXIy2lGe

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) July 24, 2023

Vuhledar Axis:

V/N- VUHLEDAR AXIS /1430 UTC 24 JUL/ RU units launch failed attacks west of T-05-18 HWY axis. Ukraine breaks up Russian probes at Pryiutne and south of Rivnopil, driving RU forces back to zero line. pic.twitter.com/uLds3BRrEF

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) July 24, 2023

 

Khakovka Reservoir:

RUSSIA’S MISTAKE: @Fireblade577 posts this satellite photo of the now empty Kakhovka Reservoir. The Dnipro River once secured RU’s western flank– the sabotage of the Kakhovka dam turned this barrier into a liability. The river can now be easily crossed by Ukrainian troops. https://t.co/9mS2UEJvHw pic.twitter.com/7LNaDKhNT6

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) July 24, 2023

Russian Occupied Donbas:

RELEASE THE BABUSHKAS!!!!

An unnamed babushka was on the line with the Ukrainian secret service revealing the location of the invader units. The occupier tells about his struggle against the babushka with pitiful music in the background. Resistance on occupied territories continues. pic.twitter.com/2ax4oeGK2M

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) July 24, 2023

Or it could have been one of these:

Vilne, Russian Occupied Crimea:

For the third time in the past week, an attack on Russian military depots in Crimea has been reported. This time, ammunition depots were reportedly attacked near the village of Vilne. ~155km from the front line. pic.twitter.com/UNOo0lrlkC

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 24, 2023

Two can play the game. Russia can attack Odesa and Kyiv. And Ukraine can put pressure on Crimea and, possibly, Moscow. We don’t have cruise missiles but there will be more and more drones on both sides as the war continues. The drones are an equalizer, but it takes time. 4X

— Tymofiy Mylovanov (@Mylovanov) July 24, 2023

Rybar says this morning raid on Crimea saw unusual paths for Ukrainian UAVs followed by 4 Storm Shadows which all hit their targets (ammunition depots). pic.twitter.com/MAExPfnZqQ

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) July 24, 2023

Moscow:

Russian officials say two UAVs targeted Moscow this morning. One apparently damaged a Russian military building on Komsomolsky prospekt, which is near the MoD’s NTsUO building. https://t.co/r90crXGfmihttps://t.co/GUIlpDTlwRhttps://t.co/GrcIbjyEHAhttps://t.co/Ld4JcsAN85 pic.twitter.com/11AG1FAKij

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) July 24, 2023

Less than 200 meters to the Russian MoD's National Defense Management Center (NTsUO). pic.twitter.com/coeKRbILWh

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) July 24, 2023

Russia placed a Pantsir-S1 air defense system on top of National Defense Management Center earlier this year. pic.twitter.com/Gx1WxFPzf6

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) July 24, 2023

MYSTERY DRONE: @officejjsmart posts this video of this morning’s Ukrainian strike on Moscow. The type of drones used by UKR is unknown. This still frame shows one of the atatcking drones, and compares it to an IAI Harop UCAV. The Harop is not know to be in Ukrainian service. https://t.co/NjxNkgFkYE pic.twitter.com/EGn13i0wf6

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) July 24, 2023

Well this would explain some of the logistics issues that have slowed down the attempts to arm and resupply Ukraine:

This seems like something you probably don’t want in the public domain? That’s less than a week’s worth of shells at Ukraine’s rate of consumption. https://t.co/vwGJs3GD8J

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) July 24, 2023

I’m going to leave the Ukraine update there for tonight for a couple of items on Israel.

💥Welcome to Netanyahu's Israel pic.twitter.com/ZfhioaoeGt

— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي (@NTarnopolsky) July 24, 2023

First, my go to reporters and analysts are Noga Tarnopolsky, Anshel Pfeffer, Ronan Bergman, and Barak Ravid.

Earlier today Bibi’s coalition rammed through on a 64-0 vote – the opposition all walked out in protest once the negotiations on a compromise broke down – the first of the judicial reform laws. Israel does not have a written/formal constitution, which, quite frankly, is a good thing. Instead they have the Basic Laws, which function as a de facto Bill of Rights and constitution. The Israeli Supreme Court is a High Court of Justice. It is both the last court of appeal for criminal and civil matters and it is also the final say over whether something is constitutional. And constitutional means in line with the Basic Laws.

But Justice Minister Levin and Ben-Gvir are against and demand it go ahead as is. Threatening to break the coalition. Voting stalled. All this happening out in the open on the Knesset floor https://t.co/U33bgLpJcU

— Anshel Pfeffer אנשיל פפר (@AnshelPfeffer) July 24, 2023

Meanwhile outside the Knesset pic.twitter.com/BVKfkRELan

— Anshel Pfeffer אנשיל פפר (@AnshelPfeffer) July 24, 2023

Defense Minister Gallant and Justice Minister Levin arguing whether to delay the vote (as it’s ongoing in the Knesset plenum). Between them a prime minister who has no say on the proceedings pic.twitter.com/XYnr7W4C4t

— Anshel Pfeffer אנשיל פפר (@AnshelPfeffer) July 24, 2023

https://twitter.com/AnshelPfeffer/status/1683457470033797122

That blue water coming out of the water cannons is skunk water. It isn’t just colored, it is liquid that has been treated with a chemical to produce a putrid, foul smell. It was invented by an Israeli company and, up till now, used on the Palestinians in the Occupied West Bank. The BBC has a description:

Police departments in the United States are reported to have bought a foul-smelling liquid developed in Israel to repel protesters. What is “skunk” and how is it used, asks Yolande Knell.

It is a truly putrid stench. Palestinians who have been sprayed describe it as “worse than raw sewage” and “like a mixture of excrement, noxious gas and a decomposing donkey”.

Invented by Israeli firm Odortec, skunk water was first used by the Israeli military against demonstrators in the occupied West Bank in 2008. Since then armoured vehicles equipped with water cannon spraying jets of the stinky liquid have become a regular sight.

Although it may induce a gagging reflex, the company says skunk is made from “100% food-grade ingredients” and is “100% eco-friendly – harmless to both nature and people”.

The secret recipe includes yeast, baking powder and water, which sounds innocent enough. But the scent can linger on skin and in the environment for days, sometimes longer.

“Once I was trapped against a wall and covered head to toe in skunk,” a Palestinian photographer says.

“Afterwards my car stank and my wife made me undress outside the house. One of my cameras was destroyed and the rest of my kit still smells.”

A spokesman for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) told the BBC that skunk is “an effective, non-lethal, riot dispersal means” that can reduce the risk of casualties. The police, too, describe it as a “humane” option.

Tear gas and rubber bullets are regularly used against angry crowds, and sometimes even live ammunition.

Lovely.

https://twitter.com/NTarnopolsky/status/1683491964421824519

https://twitter.com/NTarnopolsky/status/1683509268320776192

https://twitter.com/NTarnopolsky/status/1683504451435241473

https://twitter.com/NTarnopolsky/status/1683463499509374976

https://twitter.com/NTarnopolsky/status/1683525692829384718

FIRE! Ready. Aim!

https://twitter.com/NTarnopolsky/status/1683427256947859456

https://twitter.com/NTarnopolsky/status/1683569248495456257

Here’s some analysis from Barak Ravid explaining exactly what is going:

https://twitter.com/KatyOnMSNBC/status/1683565767902502912

What we’re seeing now is the same tactics, techniques, and procedures that Israel’s security forces first developed to deal with the Palestinians and then refined under the exceedingly long rule of Netanyahu in ever more extreme governments turned onto Israelis. Specifically and including Jewish Israelis, who are the representative average Israeli.

https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1683542212238295055

Barhano Tagnia claims that the demonstrators in Tel Aviv are confronting the police even though they see live images from the demonstration in Tel Aviv in which no confrontation is seen. What is up?

https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1683560982814027777

Ravid’s tweet machine translates as:

Perhaps it was these confrontations that Brahanu Tagnia was talking about

And Neira Kraus’s machine translates as:

Crazy documentation of police violence: Taking aside a protester. catch with the legs. When he is lying on the floor and helpless they start punching. And to hide from the cameras – the policemen stand in a wall that will hide the violence. Everything is live. @Meir_Marciano

I’ve seen dozens and dozens of videos of demonstrations and of the Israeli police and security forces trying to brutally suppress them. Don’t let anyone fool you, these demonstrations are not a sign or indicator of a healthy democracy. Rather, they are an indicator of a state that has been and is still being dragged into authoritarianism; in this case Jewish theocratic extremism in exchange for keeping Bibi’s tuchas out of prison. There is no going back to what Israel was this morning or a month ago or last year. That Israel no longer exists. What remains to be seen is what Israel actually emerges from this. Or if Israel can even survive its now weakened state in terms of its hostile neighbors.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

https://twitter.com/PatronDsns/status/1683552582541688833

Well played!

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 516: Odesa and Her Granaries Remain Russia’s Targets of ChoicePost + Comments (79)

Monday Afternoon Open Thread

by Betty Cracker|  July 24, 20233:16 pm| 92 Comments

This post is in: Birdwatching, Open Threads

We’re getting a lot of rain here today, which is good. The river is so low it’s a pain in the ass to get the boat out of the lagoon. But the exposed banks seem to bring more feathered visitors, like this Roseate Spoonbill I saw just now:

Monday Afternoon Open Thread 2

Over the weekend, we also had a couple of Black-Bellied Whistling Duck visitors:

Monday Afternoon Open Thread 3

We generally call them BBWDs for short.

Open thread!

Monday Afternoon Open ThreadPost + Comments (92)

Full Feral (Open Thread)

by Betty Cracker|  July 24, 202311:49 am| 260 Comments

This post is in: Elections 2024, Open Threads, Republican Stupidity

As I’ve noted in this space before, I have the keen political instincts of a concussed garden snail. So when I read about Repubs doing something that seems stupidly self-destructive on its face, my second impulse (after “haha, please proceed, morons!”) is to wonder if it’s a double-reverse trap or if maybe there’s an angle my lib blinders prevent me from seeing.

But with the Dobbs backlash manifesting even in red states and the meatball-face of anti-woke floundering even among Repub primary voters, it looks like the House GOP is going to double-down on the full feral agenda, with an extra shot of mean-spiritedness. They’re tacking unpopular austerity cuts, anti-woman, anti-LGBTQ, etc., riders to House spending bills, perhaps setting the stage for a government shutdown later this year led by Freedom Caucus loons. From Politico:

Even the GOP’s two less-divisive funding bills coming to the floor this week have proven difficult for many House Republicans to swallow. Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-N.Y.), for example, said he’s opposed to the fiscal 2024 funding bill for the Department of Agriculture and FDA because it would nix mail-order access to medication abortion and cut federal nutrition programs.

Teeing up partisan spending bills this summer will also challenge nearly every House Republican to vote for controversial social policies like denying abortion access to veterans, stripping funding from organizations that serve LGBTQ people and barring young immigrants who were brought to the United States as children from filling federal government jobs.

Another hill McCarthy and the House GOP may die on: a pointless vote to “expunge” Trump’s two impeachments, which almost certainly isn’t a thing that is even possible; it’s on his Permanent Record!™️ And even if it were possible, the attempt might embarrassingly fail to gather enough votes if it’s brought forward anyway. Pelosi commented about it on one of the Sunday shows (via Rolling Stone):

“Kevin is, you know, playing politics. It’s not even clear if he constitutionally can expunge those things. If he wants to put his members on the spot, his members in difficult races on the spot, that’s a decision he has to make… As I have said before, Donald Trump is the puppeteer, and what does he do all the time but shine the light on the strings. These people look pathetic.”

I think the puppeteer action in this scenario is more a hand-up-the-ass than strings-from-above, but apart from that quibble, Pelosi is right — Repubs do look pathetic, and no one more so than McCarthy.

Meanwhile, Politico claims the spirit of bipartisanship is stronger in the Senate than it has been in recent memory as the 100 Club watches the clown show in the House. Jon Tester was blunt about it:

“Hopefully we can avoid a government shutdown and all the craziness that those crazy bastards are going to do over there,” Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), who oversees defense funding in the upper chamber, said of House Republicans.

I’ve learned to never say never. Maybe doubling down on all the unpopular things and showcasing the most feral party members going into an election year will redound to the party’s benefit. Or not. Looks like we’re gonna find out.

Open thread!

Full Feral (Open Thread)Post + Comments (260)

Family Is Family – Notes From OzarkHillbilly and Renee

by WaterGirl|  July 23, 20239:57 pm| 32 Comments

This post is in: Balloon Juice, Open Threads

It was just last Sunday that we put out the call to see what we could do to help Ozark’s family, and you guys rose to the occasion, as always!

I received these two lovely notes today, one from OzarkHillbilly and another from Renee.

I will let them speak for themselves – I wanted to share them with all of you.

Family Is Family: OzarkHillbilly

From OzarkHillbilly:

A week ago I said I was humbled at the response Renee’s fundraiser garnered. I could never have dreamed of such a response. I remain humbled to my core. I want to say that this place and it’s inhabitants are truly special. For that I want to say that I owe a special debt of gratitude to John Cole. Without him this place could never have been. It is thru his efforts and growth as a human, thru his constant work on our behalf and his inestimable patience with this pack of jackals that Balloon Juice has grown into the community it is.

I also want to give a tip of the hat to WaterGirl. She made it happen. Anticipated every possible problem, guided Renee and I thru it all, making sure that everything went off without a hitch. It was a lot of work for her and she gladly did it because she has a heart of gold and the patience of a saint. Over the course of her ordeal she and I exchanged a total of 71 emails and probably 8 or 10 phone calls and she never once called me an idiot Luddite. Which if she had I could hardly have disputed it. With all that she still displays her deep and sunny goodwill.

To all the jackals who contributed funds to a woman you have never met going thru what has to be one of the most difficult things any person can go thru, words alone are insufficient. I said above that I could never have dreamed of such a response and that is true, but that being said, I am not in the least surprised. Over the years I have seen dozens of these fundraisers, for abandoned old dogs to artists facing crushing medical debts and you people always come thru.

Because you care.

To the 4 who gave $1,000 each and the 2 who gave $500, words fail. Literally. I hope my acknowledgement of your above and beyond the call generosity conveys in some small way my feelings, even tho I know it can’t.

For me, for Renee, and especially for my brother Dave, I thank you all.

Yer ever lovin’ OzarkHillbilly,

tom

And this lovely note from Renee:

“It is so much darker when a light goes out than it would have been if it had never shone”

                   -John Steinbeck

I wanted to reach out and extend my gratitude to each and everyone who donated to help me and our family out. It goes without saying David’s death was a traumatic blow to all of us.

When Tom mentioned WaterGirl wanted to extend the offer for the group to raise money to help us out and as I read the letter tears came to my eyes.

When the donations started coming in it was amazing the outpouring care and unselfishness of such wonderful people. People whom we have never met with such big hearts.

Donations of all amounts poured in and have been our lifeline to keep the lights on, the house cool for me, the family, friends and visitors coming by. Paying for groceries, making the house payment which enabled me to stay in my house and also helping in David’s cremation and planning his celebration of life.

Once again I thank you from the bottom of my heart.

Please always remember someone out there loves you, cares about you, and is listening. You just have to reach out and let them in.

With Warm Regards

Renee

Open thread.

Family Is Family – Notes From OzarkHillbilly and ReneePost + Comments (32)

War for Ukraine Day 515: Russia Bombards Odesa’s Civilian Targets Again

by Adam L Silverman|  July 23, 20237:00 pm| 87 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

From sundown Wednesday 26 July through sundown Thursday 27 July, Jews will observe Tishs B’Av, which commemorates the destructions of the first and second temples.*

Destroyed twice – by Stalin and Putin – the Odesa Transfiguration Cathedral was built between 1794 and 1808. It was blown up by the Bolsheviks in 1936 and rebuilt after Ukraine regained independence (1996–2006).
On the night of July 22–23, 2023, it was hit by a russian missile.… pic.twitter.com/vCwDhANoR1

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 23, 2023

Destroyed twice – by Stalin and Putin – the Odesa Transfiguration Cathedral was built between 1794 and 1808. It was blown up by the Bolsheviks in 1936 and rebuilt after Ukraine regained independence (1996–2006).
On the night of July 22–23, 2023, it was hit by a russian missile.
📷 Konstantin Brizhnichenko, Roman Savitskyi, @Liberov

 

Odesa’s main Orthodox cathedral. Established in 1794, destroyed by Stalin in 1936, rebuilt under an independent Ukraine and destroyed again by Putin in 2023. One of several historical parts of central Odesa, a UNESCO world heritage site, hit by Russian missiles strikes today. pic.twitter.com/X9BvICUbQ4

— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) July 22, 2023

At night Russians launched another missile attack on Odessa. During the attack the Spaso-Preobrazhensky Cathedral in Odessa was severely damaged. https://t.co/HZMlvGkIuP pic.twitter.com/iPMjHFa0KS

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 23, 2023

History never repeats, but sometimes it rhymes.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

Despite any attempts to break our state and our people, we know that Ukraine has a future – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

23 July 2023 – 21:29

Fellow Ukrainians!

Today, the liquidation of the consequences of the Russian terrorists’ attack on our Odesa continues all day long. 19 missiles of various types were launched on purpose to make them harder to shoot down and cause more destruction.

Last night in Odesa, one person was killed. My condolences to the relatives and friends. 20 people were injured, including four children. 11 years old, 12 years old, two 17-year-olds. Everyone is being provided with the necessary assistance. And I thank each and every person who is with Odesa. I thank everyone in the city who is helping the victims and clearing the rubble. Rescuers and doctors, military and police, volunteers and local authorities. Businesses that have joined in. I also thank all the city residents. It is very important to help each other and your city!

I would also like to thank those in the world who have already condemned this latest manifestation of Russian evil. We cannot allow people around the world to get used to terrorist attacks. The target of all these missiles is not just cities, villages or people. Their target is humanity and the foundations of our entire European culture. Last night, a Russian missile – it was an X-22, an anti-ship missile – hit the altar of the Spaso-Preobrazhensky Cathedral in Odesa… One of the most valuable cathedrals in Ukraine. In 1936 it was looted and destroyed by the Bolsheviks. The cathedral was restored in independent Ukraine. And now terrorists are trying to destroy it again. Last night alone, nearly 50 buildings in Odesa were damaged, 25 of them architectural monuments. The historic center. A world heritage site that UNESCO has taken under its protection. The building of the Greek Consulate was also damaged, and this is already the second consular office in Odesa to be hit by Russian terror. Only three days ago, another such attack damaged the building of the Chinese Consulate.

Obviously, all this is a global threat. The destruction of cities, the destruction of culture, the destruction of ports that are fundamental to the world’s food security. There has never been a terrorist capable of overcoming the world, and these Kremlin madmen will not succeed either.

There will be Spaso-Preobrazhensky Cathedral in Odesa. We will definitely restore everything. By the way, I am grateful to Italy, Madam Giorgia Meloni, members of the Italian Parliament, and the entire Italian society for their promise to help restore Ukraine’s historical monuments.

The main thing is that despite any attempts to break our state and our people, we clearly know that we, Ukraine, have a future because we are defending culture and humanity. Russia, on the other hand, is bringing only one thing closer with its terror: its dismantling from history.

And one more thing.

We have already started preparing for the upcoming week. There will be a lot of different events that will definitely bolster Ukraine’s defense.

I thank NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg for promptly convening the first meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council. In fact, immediately after our conversation yesterday, we agreed on the date – the meeting will take place this Wednesday. We are preparing it to be meaningful.

We are also preparing new support packages from our partners – everything that brings the defeat of Russian terrorists closer. More air defense for Ukraine, more artillery, more long-range weapons. The recipe for ending the war is obvious: everything depends on the unity and determination of all those who value freedom, culture and life.

Thank you to everyone who helps Ukraine! Thank you to everyone in Ukraine who cares about their neighbors.

Glory to our warriors!

Glory to Ukraine!

russia attacks Ukraine with indiscriminate high-power weapons. The Kh-22 missile, in particular, has a 50% chance of reaching a target with a 300-meter deviation. In fact, this means that even if the Kh-22s were targeting military or other infrastructure in Odesa last night, they…

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 23, 2023

russia attacks Ukraine with indiscriminate high-power weapons. The Kh-22 missile, in particular, has a 50% chance of reaching a target with a 300-meter deviation. In fact, this means that even if the Kh-22s were targeting military or other infrastructure in Odesa last night, they could only hit them by accident. Those who gave the order and launched them were well aware of this. This is a war crime, and the perpetrators will be brought to justice.

WARNING!!! WARNING!!! INTENSE & GRAPHIC CONTENT!!! WARNING!!! WARNING!!!

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1683163916371673089

.@ZelenskyyUa

Ukraine needs a full-fledged sky shield – this is the only way to defeat russian missile terror. We have already shown that we can shoot down even the russian missiles that the terrorists boasted about. Thanks to the help of our partners and the air defense systems provided to Ukraine, our defenders of the sky have saved thousands of lives. But we need more air defense systems for our entire territory, for all our cities and communities. The world must not get used to russian terror – terror must be defeated. And it is possible!

🎥 @United24media

ALL CLEAR!!!

Odesa:

.@KpsZSU
Overnight, russians attacked Odesa region with 19 missiles of various types:
5 Oniks cruise missiles;
3 Kh-22;
4 Kalibr;
5 Iskander-K;
2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles.
Air defense forces shot down 4 Kalibr and 5 Iskander-K missiles.

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 23, 2023

Last night, russian terrorists attacked Odesa once again.
Six residential buildings were destroyed, and many buildings in the city center were damaged.
At least one person was killed, and 19 were injured.
During the attack, the Odesa Cathedral was hit.
Forgive them, Lord,… pic.twitter.com/Nkd33IBCGJ

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 23, 2023

Last night, russian terrorists attacked Odesa once again.
Six residential buildings were destroyed, and many buildings in the city center were damaged.
At least one person was killed, and 19 were injured.
During the attack, the Odesa Cathedral was hit.
Forgive them, Lord, because we will not.
🎥 @suspilne_news

Odesa kindergarten this morning after an Russia barbaric attack #StopRussia #StandWithUkraine pic.twitter.com/Cw7doy9fv8

— Mariana Betsa (@Mariana_Betsa) July 23, 2023

On the night of July 23rd, 🇷🇺 Russia attacked #Odesa, a 🇺🇦 Ukrainian port city.

The Transfiguration Cathedral, located in the historic center of Odesa, protected by 🇺🇳 @UNESCO, was destroyed. A war crime that will never be forgotten and forgiven.#RussiaIsATerroristState pic.twitter.com/nxi0gGkDtg

— MFA of Ukraine 🇺🇦 (@MFA_Ukraine) July 23, 2023

Russian propaganda's attempt to justify the attack on Odesa is sickening. When they made a list of targets for 19 missiles, they knew full well they were not only aiming the port but also historical center and residential buildings. pic.twitter.com/ahhYczm4UH

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) July 23, 2023

This is what she’s referring to:

Two noname alcoholics and a propagandist discussing on live Russian TV whether to preserve Odesa or not. Decided on only keeping the Opera house and destroying everything else. pic.twitter.com/P6Hj6g4iKJ

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) July 23, 2023

The priests at the Transfiguration Cathedral in central Odesa, which took a direct hit by a Russian missile overnight, are doing an outdoor service. pic.twitter.com/iDkzJMyZ06

— Shaun Walker (@shaunwalker7) July 23, 2023

Chasiv Yar:

Cultural center in Chasiv Yar, Donetsk region. It housed the humanitarian headquarters and was used as an aid distribution point for the civilian population. In the morning, russian terrorists shelled this place with cluster munitions. pic.twitter.com/jOkIjTsw8h

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 23, 2023

From the legitimate Ukrainian governor of Donetsk Pavlo Kyrylenko:

Рашисти знищили Палац культури у Часовому Ярі, який використовувався як міський гуманітарний штаб та місце надання медичної допомоги.

Окупанти відкрили вогонь по місту вдосвіта – касетними боєприпасами.

детальніше дивіться за посиланням: https://t.co/eEPHzp7ARo#StopRussia pic.twitter.com/89HJmmodlG

— Павло Кириленко (@Pavlo_Kyrylenko) July 23, 2023

Here is the machine translation of his statement:

The racists destroyed the Palace of Culture in Chasovoy Yar, which was used as the city’s humanitarian headquarters and a place for providing medical aid.

The occupiers opened fire on the city at dawn – with cluster ammunition.

see the link for more details:

#StopRussia

Here is a machine translation of Governor Kyrylenko’s statement from his FB page:

The Nazis destroyed the Palace of Culture in Chasovyi Yar, which was used as the city’s humanitarian headquarters and a place to provide medical care.

The occupiers opened fire on the city at dawn with cluster munitions. A fire broke out.
Rescuers of the State Emergency Service arrived at the scene, but had to stop working because the racists did not stop shooting.
The building of the Palace of Culture burned down. A small stock of humanitarian aid (food kits, household chemicals) and medical equipment were destroyed.
Fortunately, there were no casualties.

Once again, the racist troops proved that they disregard the rules of warfare and try to inflict maximum damage, first of all, on civilians.

DeepL seems to be rendering the Ukrainian Рашисти as NAZIs, instead of racists or rashists. I’ll let one of our Ukrainian speakers provide any clarification necessary in the comments.

Jack Watling, a senior research fellow for land warfare at RUSI, published an essay on the US, NATO, ally, and partner training programs for the Ukrainians at The Guardian.

For two months Ukrainian forces have been endeavouring to fight their way through densely fortified Russian positions to breach the so-called Surovikin line in an attempt to liberate their territory. Fighting has been exceedingly hard, with heavy losses of equipment and personnel on both sides. Irrespective of how much progress is made over the coming months, Ukraine’s international partners need to focus their assistance on preparing Ukrainian armed forces for the next fight.

It is important to understand the challenge the Ukrainians are trying to overcome. Russian troops are fighting from successive layers of concrete-hardened positions, each behind 120-500 metres of complex minefields. They are backed up by significant artillery and attack helicopter support and protected by dense electronic warfare and air defences. Although Ukrainian troops tend to win when they get into close combat with the Russians, getting there without taking unsustainable losses is not always possible.

The Ukrainians also have longer-ranged, more accurate, and more plentiful heavy howitzers, limiting Russian counter-battery fire. The US decision to provide cluster munitions will extend the duration of Ukraine’s artillery advantage. Although western support has enabled Ukraine to gain serious advantages over Russian forces, it is also important for Ukraine’s international partners to appreciate what they got wrong over the past few months and to correct these mistakes.

A couple of months before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, I was lying on a hilltop watching a US mechanised battalion thundering down a valley, tasked with breaching a set of obstacles. The obstacles were less formidable than those in Ukraine, and the enemy in the exercise comprised a single company backed by limited artillery. Nevertheless, the US troops made a mess of things. Their reconnaissance troops failed to screen their vehicles, they went static in sight of the enemy and they were severely punished.

The fact that well-trained US troops struggle to conduct combined-arms obstacle breaching under more favourable circumstances underscores how difficult it is. Moreover, the US troops I was observing may have performed poorly, but they did so in training. If ever they have to do it for real, they will have had repeated opportunities to learn and improve. Ukrainian troops have not had that luxury.

What the Ukrainians would need in order to conduct successful offensive operations was clearly communicated to western capitals from July to September last year. The priorities were: artillery, engineering capability, tactical air defence, protected mobility, and collective and staff training. Of these, Ukraine’s partners have provided sufficient artillery and protected mobility. Engineering and tactical air defences have been less forthcoming. Collective and staff training have been slow to be set up, with Ukraine’s partners prioritising training individual Ukrainian soldiers.

There was a shift to training Ukrainian units after the decision to give Ukraine western tanks and IFVs (infantry fighting vehicles). But despite the requirement being identified in September 2022, the decision to proceed was not taken until January 2023 and has only been partially implemented. Months of delays gave Russian forces time to build their defences, significantly complicating the task for the Ukrainians. The upshot is that Ukrainian forces had around two months to master a panoply of western systems in varying states of repair, and to take new troops and try to prepare them for some of the hardest tactical tasks that can be demanded of a force.

Another problem is that much of the training provided has been poorly designed. Individual soldiers can be trained in Ukraine. What cannot be easily done there – with Ukraine’s training grounds targets for Russian strikes – is unit training above the company. For this reason, collective training has been organised on European training grounds for some Ukrainian units. However, western forces have a mantra that you should ‘‘train as you fight’’. Ukrainian troops have been clear that they have not been able to do this on western training areas. They have not been able to fly their UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) because of regulatory constraints, or use their own fire control software because it is not certified by Nato.

Perhaps the biggest problem is that regulations have been rigid in requiring us to teach Ukrainians how we do business, without there being adequate time to actually deliver all the relevant modules. Instead, courses need to be adapted to best amplify existing Ukrainian strengths. But to do that requires permissions to trainers to be relaxed to adapt what is taught, and a collaborative approach with Ukrainian staff to course design.

These bureaucratic constraints highlight a serious problem for Ukraine’s partners. While not actually fighting a war, the future of European security depends upon the outcome of Ukraine’s struggle. And yet western capitals continue to be process-driven and slow, applying peacetime approaches to much of their activity. Western militaries have made progress in adapting their practice since the start of the war. The rest of government has been slower to realise what must be done.

There is more at the link. What we are seeing, however, is a pattern emerging that what the US and its allies and partners have been doing in terms of training Ukrainian military elements is insufficient. This is, at least in regard the US, not surprising.

Several years ago Congress mandated that a full scrub be done on how we do partner and ally training through defense security cooperation and foreign internal defense and other authorities. The key question to be answered was is what we’re doing and how we’re doing it working. Specifically in terms of whether the courses designed make any sense within the context of those we are teaching and training. Back in 2019 one of my former students who was, at that time, running a special US Army training program for a KSA element reached out to ask me to design and then teach a course for his personnel because they had gotten there, got handed a curriculum, and got nothing about how Saudis learn, communicate, understand time, organize themselves, etc. My boss and I worked out a comprehensive consulting package – assess and evaluate the curriculum, observe and assess the US personnel conducting the training, work with the US Army personnel to then tailor the curriculum and its delivery, observe the delivery of the revised curriculum, make additional adjustments, write the whole thing up as a pilot and prepare to deliver the prep to each successive cohort of US personnel prior to deploying – but then there was the drone attack and the whole project went poof.

This was not the first time I had heard of these types of problems. Prior to that, when I started at Joint Special Ops University as a senior fellow in 2015 I was required to take a course from a retired Tech Sergeant with a masters in education to certify me to be allowed to teach at JSOU if asked (the senior fellows were in the research center, not the teaching departments). This is what I wrote up of that mess:

During a new personnel teaching and training certification inservice at a Geographic Combatant Command in June of 2014, the inservice instructor (Instructor X*) relayed his experiences with directing a training mission to Saudi Arabia. The purpose of this example, by the instructor’s own stated intention, was to explain to the US inservice personnel when it was necessary for an instructor to put their foot down (take control) in the classroom. The reality, based on what was relayed, was far, far different as described below.

Instructor X presented a recent experience while delivering a training assignment to a Saudi military element an example of classroom management, specifically when an instructor needs to assert greater control of the training environment. Instructor X related that when he and his training team arrived in Saudi Arabia and began their training assignment, they were frustrated because the Saudis would not communicate clearly and directly, had trouble sticking to the provided schedule, would try to conduct their official duties during class/training time, and expected an instructor, not student driven training/ educational experience. After a couple of days of what Instructor X stated was training site chaos, Instructor X gathered his team together, gave them instructions to impose greater control, and that they then did so by focusing the instructional dynamics on the instructors and implementing time management control. At that point they made it through the remaining training without any significant classroom difficulties or disturbances. Instructor X never revealed whether the Saudi military personnel actually learned or met the training objectives.

The key lessons learned from Instructor X’s experience, while leading a training assignment for Saudi forces, is that Instructor X’s priority was classroom order, organization, and management and not whether any of his Saudi students actually learned anything. Instructor X’s example demonstrates his failure to prepare himself and his team for the differences in how Saudis communicate, understand time and organize themselves, understand relationships, and learn. A modicum of cultural preparation could have prevented Instructor X from failing to do anything but check the boxes on his training mission to Saudi Arabia.

* The instructor will be referred to as Instructor X to protect his identity. He is a retired US Air Force Technical Sergeant with a masters in education from an accredited US university.

What we’re seeing in these reports, assessments, and analyses that have begun to trickle out is one manifestation of a much larger problem that I’ve been working on for most of the past 20 years: how to get the US military, get senior leaders civilian or military, to listen to what our allies, partners, peer competitors, and enemies are actually telling us. We are not listening to what the Ukrainians are telling us. This is not a new problem, but right now it has far more deadly consequences than whether we waste a bunch of Saudi money that is being paid to the US to do a special course for the world’s greatest parade ground and display military.

Along these lines, The Washington Post has reporting on the US not being in a hurry to provide Ukraine with long range missiles.

The Biden administration is holding firm, for now at least, on its refusal to send long-range Army missiles to Ukraine despite mounting pressure from U.S. lawmakers and pleas from the government in Kyiv, according to U.S. officials.

Disappointment at the slow pace of Ukraine’s counteroffensive against entrenched Russian forces and a newly equivocal tone by President Biden have led to widespread speculation that the missiles will soon follow the path taken by other U.S. weapons systems that were first denied but ultimately approved during the 17 months of the war.

In late May, Biden appeared to alter his previously firm “no” on the possibility of ATACMS, the Army Tactical Missile System, saying for the first time that it was “still in play.” Two weeks later, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that he and Biden had spoken about the missiles at the NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, but that no decision had been made.

But U.S. defense and administration officials familiar with the issue said that despite what one called a growing public perception of “some sort of slow, gravitational pull” toward approval, there has been no change in U.S. policy and no substantive discussion about the issue for months. The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to address the sensitive subject.

The Pentagon believes that Kyiv has other, more urgent needs than ATACMS, and worries that sending enough to Ukraine to make a difference on the battlefield would severely undercut U.S. readiness for other possible conflicts.

The number of ATACMS in American stockpiles is fixed, awaiting replacement with the next generation, longer-range Precision Strike Missile, called the Prism, for PrSM, which is expected to enter service by the end of this year, officials said. Lockheed Martin still manufactures 500 ATACMS each year, but all of that production is destined for sale to other countries.

Ukraine has said that the ATACMS, with a range of 190 miles, is essential for destroying command posts and logistics areas far behind Russian front lines.

“Without long-range weapons, it is difficult not only to carry out an offensive mission but also to conduct a defensive operation,” Zelensky said at a July 7 news conference in Prague.

The ATACMS would allow Ukrainian forces to target the farthest reaches of Russian-occupied Crimea from their own current front lines, including the 12-mile Kerch Bridge and the Russian naval base at Sevastopol.

Asked at the Aspen Security Forum on Thursday what is at the top of Ukraine’s list of security needs, Andriy Yermak, the head of Zelensky’s presidential office, said: “My answer will be very simple. At this point, it’s very clear and understandable. We need and are waiting for decisions on ATACMS.”

Kyiv has asked for hundreds of the missiles.

Last month, the House Armed Services Committee included funds to send ATACMS to Ukraine in its draft of the defense budget, and the House Foreign Affairs Committee passed a bipartisan resolution calling for the United States to “immediately” provide the missiles.

“There’s no reason to give Ukraine just enough to bleed but not enough to win,” Committee Chairman Michael McCaul (R-Tex.) said. “If we’re going to be helping them, either go all in or get out.” The resolution was backed by the committee’s chief Democrat, Rep. Gregory W. Meeks (N.Y.).

Early this month, Sens. James E. Risch (Idaho) and Roger Wicker (Miss.), the ranking Republicans on the Senate Foreign Relations and Armed Services committees, respectively, joined McCaul in a statement that said transfer of ATACMS, along with cluster munitions and F-16 aircraft, was “critical” to Ukraine’s success.

Since last year, the administration has cited several reasons for holding back. Refusal initially centered on concerns that Ukraine might fire the long-range missiles into Russian territory, escalating the conflict into a U.S.-Russia confrontation. Even supplying the weapons, Moscow has said publicly, would cross a red line.

Whatever Moscow’s threats, those worries seem to have abated. The Biden administration has said it is satisfied with public statements and written pledges from Kyiv not to use U.S.-supplied weapons to target Russians beyond the border. Although officials privately concede there have been some breaches, Ukraine is said to have largely complied with those promises.

“The problem now is not their ability to strike deep” into Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory, Kahl said. “They have that ability. They are doing it now. The Russian command and control, their logistics, have been disrupted in the deep.”

“The problem is not a hundred kilometers away, it’s one kilometer in front of them with the minefields” the Russians have laid, along with rows of trenches and tank traps, in defensive lines along the 600-mile front line, Kahl said.

The minefields are the primary cause of delay in the Ukrainian offensive, according to Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. “Right now, [the Ukrainians] are preserving their combat power and they are slowly and deliberately and steadily working their way through all these minefields. And it’s a tough fight. It’s a very difficult fight,” Milley said after Tuesday’s virtual meeting of the 50-plus group of Ukraine’s international backers.

“The various war games that were done ahead of time have predicted certain levels of advance and that has slowed down,” he said. “Why? Because that’s the difference between war on paper and real war. These are real people in real machines that are out there really clearing real minefields and they’re really dying.”

Not only would the ATACMS not be game changers in Ukraine, in the view of the administration, but they also would “limit the use of HIMARS or the GMLRS,” a defense official said, referring to the U.S. High-Mobility Artillery Rocket System and the Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System it is capable of firing six at a time with a nearly 50-mile range. The ATACMS are also fired from HIMARS, but only one at a time.

“There’s a very limited number [of ATACMS] available to export, and for distances longer than the GMLR can reach, the Ukrainians have been given Storm Shadows and SCALPS,” the defense official said. This fall or winter, Ukraine also will receive U.S. GLSDB, or Ground Launched Small Diameter Bombs, with a range of 93 miles and the ability to fire on a 360-degree trajectory.

This one is a little more difficult, but it goes back to Watling’s point in his essay in The Guardian. Yes, the US and our NATO and non-NATO allies only have limited stocks, but we’re now eighteen months into Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s genocidal re-invasion and we are still proceeding as if it is business as usual. No Americans or Brits or Canadians or French or Germans are getting killed in Ukraine, other than a few here or there who have joined the various legions fighting on behalf of Ukraine, so there’s no urgency. Until or unless DC, Ottawa, London, Paris, and Berlin get on a war footing, this is going to continue. The ongoing refusal to recognize that this is a world war; that Putin started it somewhere between 2009 and 2011, though he blames the US for it; that it is largely being fought non-kinetically outside of Ukraine (and the Sahel, Libya, and Syria) using the elements of national power other than military power, and that it is not evenly distributed is going prolong this war even further. Our leaders have decided that we will spend no blood to assist the Ukrainians, only treasure. They have also decided the treasure will be dribbled out a bit at a time thereby costing Ukraine more blood.

That’s enough for tonight.

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At least on my end, TikTok is down. I checked down detector and apparently there are some problems.

The Ukrainian Army Cats & Dogs feed still has no new content as a result of DMCA complaints, so here’s some related content from various places.

He used to live in Irpin. But his house is no longer there anymore. Year ago we found him and couldn’t resist of giving this fluffy butt new home

— Eugene Kibets (@eugenehmg) July 23, 2023

He was rescued from the flood in Kherson

— Eugene Kibets (@eugenehmg) July 21, 2023

Today's Ukrainian kitten—rescued after the Russians launched a massive attack on Mykolaiv Oblasts yesterday. Look into those eyes and try to tell me that animals don't have souls. Photo: @NewVoiceUkraine pic.twitter.com/HFiOuIXmVV

— The Spirit of Lorenzo the Cat (@LorenzoTheCat) July 20, 2023

Meet Olha! She saved her kittens after the dam explosion in Ukraine by putting them on her head and swimming to safety 🥹 But Olha’s home was damaged by the floodwaters. Hachiko volunteers are making sure the cats 🐈 🐈‍⬛ have everything they need & we’re replacing all her windows! pic.twitter.com/L9TZi1uesj

— Nate Mook (@natemook) July 20, 2023

Amidst the daily destruction & death in Ukraine, I am uplifted each morning by reports from our Hachiko volunteers helping displaced pets on the front lines. These kitties near Kramatorsk were very happy with today’s delivery of food, litter boxes & medicine. 😸 #CatsOfUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/1BVXVD6UYm

— Nate Mook (@natemook) July 20, 2023

Even from far away from Hamburg, Ukrainians and local residents did not stand aside and, quickly organizing themselves, gathered a whole car of various assistance for our tailed ones. And the local shelter gave us an ultrasound machine!

Vielen Dank, Hamburg!❤️🇺🇦🇩🇪 pic.twitter.com/GYuLALdAso

— Patron Pet Center (@PatronPetCenter) July 21, 2023

Let's share a piece of happiness 😍

✅ 77 animals have ALREADY been arranged.

✅ Another 60 dogs and 10 cats are waiting for their families at our Patron Pet Center adoption center.

You know what to do 🙏
Repost, tell your friends, come visit, walk, hug, and take home ❤️ pic.twitter.com/8oixA2fmPe

— Patron Pet Center (@PatronPetCenter) July 18, 2023

The atmosphere of the Patron Adoption Center is something incredible. This is something that can only be experienced by visiting us. ❤️

We can't just tell in a post how much love, gratitude, care is here. You have to see it with your own eyes. pic.twitter.com/dhhHN0QESh

— Patron Pet Center (@PatronPetCenter) July 16, 2023

Thank you very much @natemook and @Y_Stefanyuk for your help, support and incredible care for animals pic.twitter.com/rU3HrNSZP5

— Patron Pet Center (@PatronPetCenter) July 15, 2023

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 515: Russia Bombards Odesa’s Civilian Targets AgainPost + Comments (87)

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