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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

It may be funny to you motherfucker, but it’s not funny to me.

“Alexa, change the president.”

The only way through is to slog through the muck one step at at time.

Jack Smith: “Why did you start campaigning in the middle of my investigation?!”

It’s pointless to bring up problems that can only be solved with a time machine.

Lick the third rail, it tastes like chocolate!

Do we throw up our hands or do we roll up our sleeves? (hint, door #2)

Stop using mental illness to avoid talking about armed white supremacy.

The snowflake in chief appeared visibly frustrated when questioned by a reporter about egg prices.

They are not red states to be hated; they are voter suppression states to be fixed.

Republicans seem to think life begins at the candlelight dinner the night before.

Today in our ongoing national embarrassment…

Proof that we need a blogger ethics panel.

“Everybody’s entitled to be an idiot.”

The revolution will be supervised.

Human rights are not a matter of opinion!

Rupert, come get your orange boy, you petrified old dinosaur turd.

I like political parties that aren’t owned by foreign adversaries.

Fuck these fucking interesting times.

Come on, media. you have one job. start doing it.

Damn right I heard that as a threat.

Many life forms that would benefit from greater intelligence, sadly, do not have it.

The party of Reagan has become the party of Putin.

No one could have predicted…

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Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

Open Threads

You are here: Home / Archives for Open Threads

Whitmer’s Pitch (Open Thread)

by Betty Cracker|  July 17, 20232:13 pm| 159 Comments

This post is in: Domestic Politics, Foreign Affairs, Open Threads, Politics, Republican Stupidity

The New Yorker‘s Benjamin Wallace-Wells published a lengthyish profile on Governor Gretchen Whitmer and the political transformation of Michigan into a Democratic stronghold. But before we get to that, I have to share something unpleasant: Trump’s oft-touted plan to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours.

As you may know, ever since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Trump has bragged that the war would never have happened on his watch and that he alone could instantly end it. For many months, Trump refused to elaborate on his alleged plan but finally responded with a bit more detail when pressed by Maria Bartiromo on her Fox News program yesterday. Are you ready? Here it is:

“I know Zelenskyy very well, and I know Putin very well, even better. And I had a good relationship, very good with both of them. I would tell Zelenskyy, no more. You got to make a deal. I would tell Putin, if you don’t make a deal, we’re going to give him a lot. We’re going to [give Ukraine] more than they ever got if we have to. I will have the deal done in one day. One day,” Trump responded.

Jesus Fucking Christ. Fran Lebowitz was right: “You do not know anyone as stupid as Donald Trump.”

Okay, now on to the more pleasant topic of a state, Michigan, that went for Trump in 2016 and now has a Democratic trifecta in Lansing: the governorship and both legislative chambers. Wallace-Wells summarizes Whitmer’s approach as follows:

The Governor’s strategy for revitalizing her state has two parts: to grow, Michigan needs young people; to draw young people, it needs to have the social policies they want.

It appears to be the opposite of the DeSantis strategy for Florida, which is to chase the young folks out and lure the nation’s angriest seniors.

In Michigan, Democrats are protecting women’s reproductive healthcare, LGBTQ rights and investing Inflation Reduction Act funds in ways that are improving communities and creating jobs. But their pitch sounds more pragmatic than ideological, and it seems to be working. Whitmer contrasts that approach with the style of hyper-ideologues like Ron DeSantis and his war on Disney:

“I can’t imagine General Motors taking a stance on just about anything where I would go to war with General Motors,” Whitmer said. “It’s just wild to me to see that Democrats are now viewed as a little more pragmatic and business-friendly than maybe some Republicans. But I think that’s good. I think that’s important. And I would consider myself in that vein.”

Whitmer notes that Dems gained a trifecta with a “different kind of coalition than Democrats have relied on before,” and it’s clear Michigan Dems have benefited from meltdowns on the Repub side, which is a hot mess. That said, Dems aren’t taking anything for granted. If they don’t get everything they want, Democrats in the state understand the stakes:

So far, though, the spectre of a Republican comeback has largely kept everyone in line. “It’s such a huge part of what’s happening right now,” Christy McGillivray, a lobbyist in Lansing for the Sierra Club, told me. “Even when we talk about what’s happening legislatively, no one wants to say bad things about the people who are holding off the fascist Christian takeover.”

Anyhoo, the whole thing is worth a read. As we’ve discussed here, Dems at the national level seem to be settling on a message that sounds a bit like Whitmer’s in Michigan, i.e., individual freedom and shared prosperity. I think it can work in other places too.

Open thread.

Whitmer’s Pitch (Open Thread)Post + Comments (159)

Open Thread & Announcing Tuesday Evening Legal Zoom with Immanentize (7 pm ET)

by WaterGirl|  July 17, 20231:32 pm| 30 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

With all the legal ins and outs related to the (likely) upcoming indictments and trials related to Trump’s Attempted Coup and Criminality, I asked Immanetize if he would be up for doing another zoom about legal stuff.  Gracious, as always, the answer was yes!

Other legal BJ peeps – as well as non-legal peeps – are most welcome to participate!

Folks seemed pleased with the last one, so I think this is gonna be great!  Who’s interested?

So if you’re up for joining the zoom on Tuesday, July 18– either with video or just audio – please chime in below and send me an email so I can reply with the zoom link.

Otherwise, open thread!

Open Thread & Announcing Tuesday Evening Legal Zoom with Immanentize (7 pm ET)Post + Comments (30)

Shipping News (Open Thread)

by Betty Cracker|  July 17, 202310:32 am| 162 Comments

This post is in: Domestic Politics, Foreign Affairs, Open Threads, Politics

Two superyachts are in the news today. The first belongs to Harlan Crow, whose patronage of Clarence Thomas included lavish free yacht vacations to beaches and ports around the world aboard Crow’s 162-foot vessel, the Michaela Rose.

New reporting from ProPublica suggests Crow might have misled the IRS about his yacht’s status as a commercial enterprise, a lie Crow may have spun up to collect tax credits for which he was not eligible. A couple of excerpts:

The rich, as we’ve reported, often deduct millions of dollars from their taxes related to buying and operating their jets and yachts. Crow followed that formula through a company that purported to charter his superyacht. But a closer examination of how Crow used the yacht raises questions about his compliance with the tax code, experts said. Despite Crow’s representations to the IRS, ProPublica reporters could find no evidence that his yacht company was actually a profit-seeking business, as the law requires.

“Based on what information is available, this has the look of a textbook billionaire tax scam,” said Senate Finance Committee chair Ron Wyden, D-Ore. “These new details only raise more questions about Mr. Crow’s tax practices, which could begin to explain why he’s been stonewalling the Finance Committee’s investigation for months…”

ProPublica interviewed around a dozen former crew members of the Michaela Rose, some of whom spent years aboard the ship, and none said they were aware of the boat ever being chartered. ProPublica also reviewed cruising schedules for three different years. According to the former staff and the schedules, use of the vessel appears to have been limited to Crow’s family, friends and executives of Crow’s company, along with their guests.

Is there a Repub sugar daddy who isn’t a cheating grifter? No wonder the Repub-controlled House was so keen to defund the IRS — they’re terrified that staffing the agency adequately would significantly decrease their donors’ disposable income.

In other shipping news, Spanish activists from the environmental group Futuro Vegetal vandalized a yacht that belongs to Walmart heiress Nancy Walton Laurie when the vessel was moored in Ibiza. From the photo in the CNN report, it looks like the activists spray-painted the boat’s stern to use as a backdrop for a video denouncing the super-wealthy for excessive consumption. The group’s actions are part of a wider effort:

“The action puts the finishing touch to the “Jets and Yachts, the party is over” campaign, convened by Extinction Rebellion Ibiza who demand the prohibition of private jets and the end of luxury emissions,” Futuro Vegetal said.

The climate group Extinction Rebellion (XR) has also pledged to target the 1%, saying they want to make it clear that “the rich and their leisure activities that waste essential resources are a luxury that we cannot afford.”

Earlier this month XR activists in Spain plugged up holes on 10 golf courses around the country to protest the water use by golf courses during one of Spain’s worst droughts on record.

I don’t know how effective this sort of thing is, but it strikes me as significantly more constructive than vandalizing priceless works of art. Funding for extremely clever forensic auditors at the IRS and enforceable higher tax rates for the fat cats would be more constructive still!

Open thread.

Shipping News (Open Thread)Post + Comments (162)

Monday Morning Open Thread: Political Theories

by Anne Laurie|  July 17, 20237:39 am| 131 Comments

This post is in: Biden Administration in Action, Information Warfare, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Show Us on the Doll Where the Invisible Hand Touched You

Today’s strong fundraising numbers come after a great week for the Biden-Harris team.

From leading the global charge for democracy to bringing down costs here at home, this week we got to see @JoeBiden and @KamalaHarris do what they do best – deliver for the American people. pic.twitter.com/zsGgNnvhvf

— Jaime Harrison (@harrisonjaime) July 14, 2023

More Americans are joining the labor force—the highest share of working-age Americans in over 20 years.

Bidenomics is working. pic.twitter.com/bHjtz084OU

— The Democrats (@TheDemocrats) July 14, 2023

Note sender:

The press rarely prints the good news about the economy under Joe Biden’s leadership. https://t.co/LgZIVdHtDi

— Barbra Streisand (@BarbraStreisand) July 14, 2023

show full post on front page

Note different sender:

“So we’ve got inflation waning, strong employment, the Dow very strong…And yet I know that we’ll spend the next six months hearing voters talk about how out of control inflation is, and how bad the economy is, and why they’re open to Trump 2024.” https://t.co/kIX1jUAiIN

— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) July 14, 2023

Just take L and move on. https://t.co/rlHm6uQE8v

— Candidly Tiff (@tify330) July 14, 2023

A point to ponder:

Vaccines and Ukraine are very useful litmus tests for separating people with an actual critique from cranks or malignant actors. If you fail to have the broadly correct position on either you’re stupid or trying to maliciously manipulate stupid people.

— William B. Fuckley (@opinonhaver) July 15, 2023

For the next 20-30 years you’ll be able to look at what anyone with any kind of platform said in 2021-2023 and have a pretty clear (necessary, not sufficient, but still useful) indicator of if they’re a serious person or good faith actor.

— William B. Fuckley (@opinonhaver) July 15, 2023

Meanwhile…
Monday Morning Open Thread: Political Theories & Actions

(Clay Jones via GoComics.com)

Monday Morning Open Thread: Political TheoriesPost + Comments (131)

War for Ukraine Day 508: A Brief Sunday Night Update

by Adam L Silverman|  July 16, 20239:54 pm| 67 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Before we start I just want to take a moment and express my sincere condolences to Ozark Hillbilly and his family. I was offline almost all day and had no idea what was going on until TaMara told me about it. We are keeping good thoughts for you and your entire family.

A number of you had trouble with the audio of Field Marshal Sir William Slim’s 1952 remarks and asked if there was a transcript. Given that the lecture was 45 minutes, it is far, far too long to post here, but you will find the transcript at this link.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

The security of our continent begins with the sovereignty and strength of Ukraine – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

16 July 2023 – 21:25

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Today we celebrate the 33rd anniversary of the Declaration of State Sovereignty of Ukraine. The 33rd of many, many such anniversaries that Ukraine has yet to celebrate. A free Ukraine.

Our country will never give up its sovereignty. This is already obvious to everyone in the world. And whatever the Russian terror may be, we know that Ukrainian freedom will still be preserved and will still prevail.

Every year, Ukraine will only get stronger and help other free nations to protect their sovereignty and build common security. Ukraine can do this. It can because the lines and words of our fundamental state documents are backed by the strength and determination of our people. Millions of Ukrainians for whom the freedom of our state is their personal freedom. Honoring Ukrainian freedom, Ukrainian sovereignty, and Ukrainian strength, we always honor our heroes. Different people who fought and are still fighting for Ukraine and to whom we owe our freedom.

Today, I would like to pay special tribute to the warriors who have shown maximum courage and efficiency for the sake of Ukraine these days and weeks.

Soldier Oleksandr Shulha, a mechanic driver of a tank battalion of the 33rd separate mechanized brigade. Thank you, Oleksandr, for your bravery and for saving the lives of the crew!

Soldier Oleksandr Levchenko, commander of the Bradley combat vehicle of the 47th separate mechanized brigade. Thank you, Oleksandr, for your brave combat work and destruction of the enemy!

Soldier Andriy Holovko, commander of the fire support unit of the 79th separate airborne assault brigade. Thank you, Andriy, for your accuracy and the results Ukraine needs on the battlefield!

Major Tetiana Humelia, the 110th separate territorial defense brigade, – I thank you, Tetiana, for the high-quality logistics and professional service!

Sergeant Oleksandr Olivko, the 3rd separate assault brigade, commander of a machine gun squad. Thank you for your courage and accuracy, Oleksandr!

Junior Sergeant Vladyslav Datskyi – also from the 3rd separate assault brigade, chief sergeant of an assault platoon. Thank you for your strength, Vladyslav!

Senior Lieutenant Ihor Dykun, Hero of Ukraine, commander of a reconnaissance battalion. The 5th separate assault brigade. A true exemplary Ukrainian warrior. Thank you, Ihor!

Lieutenant Oleksandr Kovalenko, Hero of Ukraine, commander of the 2nd assault company of the 24th separate assault battalion “Aidar”. Thank you, Oleksandr!

Senior Soldier Maksym Shevtsov, Soldier Andriy Khmilevsky, and Junior Sergeant Bohdan Maksymov. All three are warriors of our glorious “Eightieth” – the 80th separate airborne assault brigade. I thank you, warriors!

Senior Lieutenant Yevhen Martsynenko and Soldier Oleksandr Dudun – warriors of Kish Otaman Kost Hordiienko 57th separate motorized infantry brigade. I thank you guys! Thank you for Ukrainian strength!

Senior Lieutenant Oleh Spichak and Junior Sergeant Serhiy Sargsyan – warriors of the 123rd separate territorial defense brigade. Thank you for your daily bravery, daily military ingenuity in countering Russian subversive reconnaissance groups!

Captain-Lieutenant Mykola Sopko and Petty Officer Second Class Serhiy Tarasov – warriors of the 73rd naval special operations center. Thank you for your very significant combat results!

Everyone’s contribution is always valuable in the fight for freedom. Ukraine is proud of its heroes! Ukraine is proud of you! Glory to you, warriors!

And, of course, I thank all the warriors of the Air Force of Ukraine – pilots, anti-aircraft gunners, and fighters of mobile fire groups. To everyone who protects the Ukrainian skies. Thank you for every downed Russian missile! We have already shown that there are no Russian missiles that cannot be shot down by Ukrainians. And when the Ukrainian sky shield is powerful enough – and it will be! – Ukraine will ensure real freedom and security for the whole of Europe from Russian terror. The security of our continent begins here with Ukraine’s sovereignty and strength.

Glory to Ukraine!

Today, courage has a name, and that name is Ukraine.

📷 Slava Ratynski pic.twitter.com/6OeU1x5Vo9

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 16, 2023

You can easily recognize a person who has been on the front lines by looking into their eyes. These eyes have seen death every day. Eyes like these know the true value of life. pic.twitter.com/tGFMHJMq8G

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 16, 2023

The Azov brigade commander, the leader of Mariupol defense Denys Prokopenko recently freed from extraction stay in 🇹🇷, has returned to his unit. pic.twitter.com/knGAsLqmdu

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) July 16, 2023

Kreminna:

KREMINNA AXIS /1540 UTC 16 JUN/ RU offensive operations were broken up west of Dibrova and east of Novosadove. RU air and artillery strikes indicate that UKR forces are positioned strongly on the east banks of the Zherebets Reservoir. pic.twitter.com/LWj0k6Vf5Q

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) July 16, 2023

Velyka Novoslika:

ERRATUM: The date for the map has been corrected. Many thanks to the sharp eyed readers– and thanks for the shout outs! pic.twitter.com/hTxBPGjhDy

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) July 16, 2023

VELYKA NOVOSLIKA /1645 UTC 16 JUL/ Sources report that UKR has advanced into the northern limits of Staromaiorske: RU units are said to be falling back. Withdrawing RU forces will be vulnerable to flanking attacks. This will likely open the T-04-18 HWY S into the Mokri Yaly River valley.

Luhansk via Ukraine Today:

In the Ukrainian city of Lugansk, temporarily occupied by pro-Russian militants “LPR”, there is a powerful “arrival”.It flew to the territory of the Mashchinskaya mine, which is located in the village of Yubileyny, journalist Denis Kazansky said on Sunday, July 16, in his Telegram channel.According to him, there were enemy forces there.

“It seems that soon we will have another stream of mournful reports about the untimely demobilization of another batch of Russian officers,” the author added.

Explosions/strikes reported in Luhansk. pic.twitter.com/azwpXGF0Av

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 16, 2023

/3. Rumours that strike was on the area of Mashchinskaya mine near Luhansk. (48.5236710, 39.1993347) pic.twitter.com/Zwkic88IyA

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 16, 2023

/5. Precise geolocation. https://t.co/4ickaEyTi5

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 16, 2023

Marinka:

Марьинка. Пришла Россия и «защитила русскоязычное население от притеснений» pic.twitter.com/uSLaTaZH0z

— Денис Казанський (@den_kazansky) July 16, 2023

Here’s the machine translation:

Marinka. Russia came and “protected the Russian-speaking population from harassment”

Bakhmut:

Rashist mobiks in Bakhmut refused to complete "suicide orders" and are now threatened with shooting by their leadership. The men hit all bingo cards: terrible commanders, no ammo, no artillery and aviation support, delays in payments, and no rotation or rest:

"Hello. We’re the… pic.twitter.com/IpFykYAP0X

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) July 16, 2023

Rashist mobiks in Bakhmut refused to complete “suicide orders” and are now threatened with shooting by their leadership. The men hit all bingo cards: terrible commanders, no ammo, no artillery and aviation support, delays in payments, and no rotation or rest:

“Hello. We’re the mobilised from the 85th Brigade. Together with us are also contractors whose contracts ran out, but they’re still fighting here with us, now for 10-11 months.

We’d like to say that during all this time, we’ve been mobilised for 7-8 months, we always unconditionally completed all orders at fronts near Kreminna and Belohirivka, without fear.

But now, we’ve been thrown to Bahkmut to unprepared unmined positions, with a drunk company commander who led us to these positions. We didn’t reach them, we were shelled with tanks, mortars, Polish missiles.

We came to the company commander and explained that we won’t pass there. We came across employees of PMC “Hurricane” who were leaving those positions, they were the first with losses.

They explained to us that we’re simply suiciders, we won’t pass there. To which the company commander said we needed to complete the order. But as we’re the mobilised, not stormtroopers or spetsnaz, without ammo, without food, without evacuation, without vehicles, we were thrown in like stormtroopers.

We refused, only laying down weapons by the order of the Brigade commander, under threats of shooting, accused of betrayal, and threatened with imprisonment.

We didn’t reach those positions. We are now sat in Svetlodarsk, in some strange building. But as they didn’t take away our phones, we’re trying to record a video for our relatives who could help us.

We do not refuse to fight, we can take weapons again, but not in this direction, and not in the first line of defence. As I already said, we always followed our orders without being afraid, under mortar and enemy bullets.

But now, after this time, we’re simply defeated psychologically by our command. We don’t even have medals for the SMO, we were not given any payments. By the way, our salaries come late and not in full.

There’s no rotation, no rest provided to us. So that’s what it is. And we’re now accused of betrayal and cowardice forgetting about our previous achievements.

We were sent there without artillery and aviation support which are unable to suppress the enemy fire. We came under shelling, and after all that happened, the commander, answering why our artillery and aviation were silent, said there’s no ammo – “Go die an honourable death”.

But we’re not suiciders, we’re simple mobilised, workmen, just like anyone else.

We were called P.O.W.s and threatened with killing, threatened to be sent to Storm units containing unprepared people, or sent back to the zero line. But we’re simply afraid that our commanders will shoot us there.

We do not refuse to serve and complete combat tasks, just not in this direction, not on the first line, and not with these commanders.”

Belgorod:

This evening, Russians were shelling Kharkiv from the territory of the Belgorod region. And it looks like one of the missiles exploded in the air over the Belgorod region. pic.twitter.com/LyA2pQEkH8

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 16, 2023

Nove, Zaporizhzhia:

As said, strike on Russian headquarters. Nove, Zaporizhzhya region. ~14 km from the front line. https://t.co/MzK2Bby64C pic.twitter.com/8W0K71vKma

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 16, 2023

Kharkiv:

One civilian killed and three wounded in the evening attack on Kharkiv as reported by prosecutors office. Russia launched two S-300 missiles from Belgorod. Today was one of the most massive missile attacks on the city recently.

📷 Police documenting attack this morning. pic.twitter.com/kjnrBsI09e

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) July 16, 2023

Second attack on Kharkiv in a day. Two loud explosions reported after air raid alert went off. At least 4 wounded. Meanwhile Russian channels proudly share videos of missile launches. pic.twitter.com/8YccamQPOH

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) July 16, 2023

Sevastapol:

Late last night reports started trickling out of an extended Ukrainian attack on Russian targets in Sevastapol, Occupied Crimea.

As said, 8 drones attacked Sevastopol at night. Reportedly, 2 sea drones were also used. Nothing is known about the results of the attack. Russians claim that "the attack was repulsed" pic.twitter.com/1ypPNYNQqq

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 16, 2023

Alleged drone attack on Sevastopol. Russian sources claim that seven air and two sea drones attacked Sevastopol at night and in the morning. pic.twitter.com/ufCw4OtMfD

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) July 16, 2023

More reporting on last week’s NATO summit from The Wall Street Journal:

Last week’s NATO summit revealed a major realignment within the U.S.-led trans-Atlantic alliance.

European nations, once seen as less steadfast in their support for Kyiv and more vulnerable to Russian pressure, are determined to help Ukraine win an unambiguous victory. At the same time, the Biden administration, which orchestrated a unified Western response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion last year, is increasingly cautious—constrained by domestic politics and a fear of direct confrontation with Moscow.

In Europe, the once-gaping divisions between different capitals have narrowed sharply, as countries previously seen as soft on Russia, including France, Italy, Spain and to a lesser extent Germany, have all moved much closer to Ukraine’s fiercest supporters: Poland, the Baltic and the Nordic states.

“It took a while, but then it seeped through. Today a lot of leaders around Europe, including Germany, understand that they must help Ukraine defeat Putin if they want to defend their own security,” said Reinhard Bütikofer, a German member of the European Parliament. “They have well understood that Putin’s threat to Ukraine has significance far beyond Ukraine itself.”

European nations, once seen as less steadfast in their support for Kyiv and more vulnerable to Russian pressure, are determined to help Ukraine win an unambiguous victory. At the same time, the Biden administration, which orchestrated a unified Western response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion last year, is increasingly cautious—constrained by domestic politics and a fear of direct confrontation with Moscow.

In Europe, the once-gaping divisions between different capitals have narrowed sharply, as countries previously seen as soft on Russia, including France, Italy, Spain and to a lesser extent Germany, have all moved much closer to Ukraine’s fiercest supporters: Poland, the Baltic and the Nordic states.

“It took a while, but then it seeped through. Today a lot of leaders around Europe, including Germany, understand that they must help Ukraine defeat Putin if they want to defend their own security,” said Reinhard Bütikofer, a German member of the European Parliament. “They have well understood that Putin’s threat to Ukraine has significance far beyond Ukraine itself.”

The divergence between Washington and its European allies is increasingly evident on an array of issues, from Ukraine’s prospects of eventually joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, to the military capabilities that Kyiv needs for its current offensive aiming to reclaim occupied territory, to the desirability of any peace settlement with the Kremlin in the near term.

“Biden’s mantra is that the unity of the alliance is the high priority,” said Slawomir Dębski, director of the Polish Institute of International Affairs, a Warsaw think tank that advises Poland’s government. “The problem now is that it’s the Biden administration that is lagging behind Europe, and it’s the Biden administration that is creating trouble for the unity.”

Washington remains the biggest backer of Ukraine, and President Biden reiterated in Vilnius that America’s commitment won’t waver—warning that Putin is making a “bad bet” as he doubts the West’s staying power and unity.

Yet political winds are blowing in opposite directions on the two sides of the Atlantic. A sizable, and growing, minority of the U.S. Republican Party wants to end any support for Ukraine, and America’s role in the war is likely to become an issue in next year’s presidential election. A proposal to prohibit all security assistance to Ukraine garnered 70 Republican votes, or nearly one-third of all Republican House members, on Thursday.

Former President Donald Trump, who seeks to return to the White House next year, has accused Biden of risking World War III by supplying Ukraine with cluster munitions, a type of ammunition that Russia has been using in abundance, and boasted that he could end the conflict within 24 hours, without saying how.

Few major European leaders have similar electoral concerns in the near term. European economies have successfully weaned themselves off dependence on Russian energy, and even the once pro-Putin nationalist parties rarely openly support Moscow nowadays. Many key European leaders who pushed for talks between Kyiv and Moscow last year, most importantly French President Emmanuel Macron, have increasingly come to the view that no deal on Ukraine can be struck until Putin is routed on the battlefield or leaves power.

“There is a growing belief in Europe that the defeat of Russia needs to be super clear, while at least in some corners of the U.S. system there might be a sense that this needs to be a defeat that generates a negotiated outcome,” said Camille Grand, a policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations in Brussels who served until last year as NATO’s assistant secretary-general. “There is this nuance.”

Biden, in remarks in Helsinki last week, said his hope and expectation is that “Ukraine makes significant progress on their offensive, and that it generates a negotiated settlement somewhere along the line.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly said that no settlement is possible until Ukraine regains occupied land, which amounts to about 20% of the country’s territory, and secures reparations from Moscow.

At the Vilnius summit, the Biden administration surprised many allies with its refusal to negotiate the language on Ukraine, which said that NATO “would be in a position to extend an invitation to Ukraine to join the alliance when allies agree and conditions are met.”

Frustrated, Zelensky issued a fiery tweet as he arrived in Vilnius. “A window of opportunity is being left to bargain Ukraine’s membership in NATO in negotiations with Russia,” he wrote. “And for Russia, this means motivation to continue its terror.”

Daria Kaleniuk, a Ukrainian anticorruption campaigner and civil-society activist, raised this point in a sharp exchange with U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan. Is it true, she asked Sullivan at a NATO public forum in Vilnius, that Biden “didn’t invite Ukraine to NATO because he’s afraid of Russia, afraid of Russia losing, of Ukraine winning?”

Speculating that there are backchannel communications between Washington and Moscow, she added: “Should I prepare my son to be a soldier and fight the Russians when he will be 18 years old in seven years?” The audience responded with thunderous applause.

Sullivan responded that any suggestion that Washington would negotiate a secret deal with the Kremlin at Ukraine’s expense was “entirely unfounded and unjustified.”

“There has been a lot of conspiracy theorizing that is simply not based on any reality whatsoever,” he said, adding that “the American people do deserve a degree of gratitude.” U.S. officials sent similar messages denying any clandestine deals with Moscow to their European interlocutors—some of whom say they remain unconvinced by the denials, and are concerned that the American policy on Ukraine is increasingly dictated by the constraints of the U.S. political calendar.

Appearing on NBC Sunday, Sullivan reiterated that Ukraine’s NATO accession “is not subject to negotiation with any country, including Russia.”

Much more at the link!

 

And now the view from Moscow:

The Kremlin Loony who already killed 300,000 of his mobiks for his own deranged goal of staying in power forever is smiling telling a "journalist" that Ukrainians have no success in the counter-offensive.

The "journalist" asked him about the goals of the war, but the maniac… pic.twitter.com/shys36lJxJ

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) July 16, 2023

The Kremlin Loony who already killed 300,000 of his mobiks for his own deranged goal of staying in power forever is smiling telling a “journalist” that Ukrainians have no success in the counter-offensive. The “journalist” asked him about the goals of the war, but the maniac promised to tell him this information “in private”. Why would a “journalist” need “private” information like this is unclear. Most likely, because the sicko’s only current goal is to keep his head on his shoulder for as long as possible.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

Patron responds to a fan on twitter:

I like it very much. The @UNICEF_UA cup is pretty! And you catch the WhizzBang. I live in Germany but I know the number to call 101 in #Ukraine when there are suspect Objekts, mines.

— Claudia Hartz 🇺🇦 🕊 (@Seehund74) July 12, 2023

It is very important that neither kids or adults touch anything they do not know.

— Claudia Hartz 🇺🇦 🕊 (@Seehund74) July 12, 2023

🐶 How cool is South Korea’s First Lady getting a tattoo of Patron the Dog?! pic.twitter.com/nWCSVPI2X2

— UNITED24 Media (@United24media) July 16, 2023

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok!

@patron__dsns

Недільний сільський міні влог ✨😌🌱

♬ original sound – AKŞİN44

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

Sunday village mini vlog ✨😌🌱

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 508: A Brief Sunday Night UpdatePost + Comments (67)

Sunday Night Open Thread: It’s Seldom As Simple As It First Looks…

by Anne Laurie|  July 16, 20239:33 pm| 31 Comments

This post is in: Excellent Links, Nature & Respite, Open Threads, Riveted By The Sociological Significance Of It All

Wildlife officials are trying to capture this 5-year-old otter who was seen wrestling away a surfboard near Santa Cruz, California on Sunday.

The otter has reportedly shown aggression for several weeks. She will be evaluated by the Monterey Bay Aquarium once she’s captured. pic.twitter.com/HC6TEM59xO

— The Associated Press (@AP) July 13, 2023

i will evaluate her right now: she's perfect. leave her alone https://t.co/aB32TRlKOk

— flglmn (@flglmn) July 13, 2023

"but i WANT to surf there" yeah well she wants to steal your surfboard. let the Law Of The Sea decide

— flglmn (@flglmn) July 13, 2023

Would that it were so easy. From the Washington Post, “The otter in that viral surfboard video is sending humans a warning” [unpaywalled gift link]:

… “It is cute. I can’t deny that. I don’t want to be the fun police,” said Kevin Connor, a spokesman for the Monterey Bay Aquarium. But the videos, he added, show an animal that is “missing some of her really critical survival instincts.”

Animals like this otter that have no qualms about being near people often do so after getting a meal from them. But too many of those seeming acts of generosity, though, can endanger a species if it stops foraging for food on its own…

After being fed by people, the surfing otter′s mother started approaching kayakers in 2018. Once wildlife managers captured the brash female, they realized it was pregnant.

That otter’s pup, which was dubbed Otter 841 by wildlife managers, was raised at the Monterey Bay Aquarium and released in 2020. Wildlife managers took precautions to prevent it from getting used to humans, wearing face shields and ponchos to obscure the human form while interacting with it.

For a while, 841 appeared to lead a normal otter-y life in the wild. But it soon it began to approach people in the water, like its mother. “We don’t know the exact cause of the behavior,” Connor said. But he added that its conduct is consistent with that of an animal that has been fed.

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, which manages southern sea otters, said aggressive behavior like this is sometimes caused by hormonal surges as well. For now, the agency advised the public to keep away from the otter.

“While there have been no confirmed reports of injury, due to the highly unusual behavior of this otter, kayakers, surfers, and others recreating in the area should not approach the otter or encourage the otter’s interactions,” agency spokeswoman Ashley McConnell wrote in an email…

 
She’s got her defenders, locally — per KCRA News:

show full post on front page

A pirate only identified by its tag as 841, has been stealing surfboards along popular surfing spots along the Santa Cruz coast…

While 841 has reportedly been connected to surfer interactions for years it wasn’t until June of 2023 that the pirate was caught on camera pirating surfboards. Police in Santa Cruz say 841 has had at least four encounters with surfers and is known to bite, scratch and get on top of surfboards.

On June 18, Mark Woodward, @NativeSantaCruz on Twitter, posted photos and a video clip of 841 latching onto several surfboards and even stealing one for a quick joy ride.

On June 26, video taken by Lori Pemberton shows the otter stealing an unattended surfboard. When the owner of the board attempts to get it back, 841 paws it, attempting to take the board into the deeper waters of the Monterey Bay. After about six minutes, five of which yakety sax should’ve accompanied, the surfer was able to reclaim their board. (Watch the full video here.) …

Most recently, on July 9, the otter made its most brazen commandeering to date. As seen on video, 841 leaps onto a surfboard and becomes aggressive with the surfer. The end result? Several large bite marks and a surfer who tells KSBW 8 that he’ll probably never surf again…

The Department of Fish and Wildlife told KSBW 8 that even if the otter was to bite a surfer that they would still attempt to capture and rehome her.

“Euthanasia would not be under consideration,” said Ashley McConnell with the agency, even if the otter becomes more aggressive.

‘We absolutely don’t wanna get lynched by an angry mob of Pirate 841 defenders.’

Latest local update, from KGO/ABC News7:

SANTA CRUZ, Calif. (KGO) — The surfboard-biting sea otter in Santa Cruz has once again – evaded capture attempts by wildlife officials…

Colleen Young, a sea otter Biologist for the California Department of Fish and Wildlife is one of the divers on the capture team.

“I’m extremely frustrated and exhausted,” Young said.

The CDFW has been working with Monterey Bay Aquarium staff since July 2. Officials are responding because this 5-year-old female otter is showing concerning and unusual behavior by approaching people.

They’re able to locate her every day, but her behavior changes every day.

“For this particular animal, she’s got a lot of variability when she’s active, when she’s resting and that makes it really challenging because we have different capture strategies depending on what her behavior is. So we need to plan in advance what those capture strategies are going to be because we have different people that are experts in the different types of strategies,” Young said…

Young explained they tried catching this otter last year when she was showing similar, unusual behavior. The otter has some familiarity with nets.

“Last year, we also made some capture attempts which turned out to be successful in hazing her and discouraging the behavior so we didn’t end up capturing her because she stopped doing the behavior,” Young said.

Young said they had crews out on Friday and they’ll keep trying until they capture her…

And one day Pirate 841 will be a legend!

Seeing this with like a 3 foot sea otter makes me think that humans are very lucky that we don't really coexist all that much with the Giant River Otters of the Amazon, which get up to 6 ft tall and tag team drag animals into the water to drown them.

They terrify the Jaguars.

— verbatim (@verb_sp) July 13, 2023

Sunday Night Open Thread: It’s Seldom As Simple As It First Looks…Post + Comments (31)

MYOB (Open Thread)

by Betty Cracker|  July 16, 20234:18 pm| 141 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Politics, Republican Stupidity

I have no idea how this ad will go over in Ohio, but I like the message behind it: Repubs are all up in our business, and we have to vote them out so we can live our lives without their arrogant, unwanted interference:

I have the keen political instincts of a concussed garden snail, but I think when an entire party is snarling into microphones about their God-given right to dictate what everyone else can do, say, watch or read, a mind your own business message is likely to resonate.

Open thread!

MYOB (Open Thread)Post + Comments (141)

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