Today, another “Ramstein” took place; there will be new defense packages, including scarce artillery – address by the President

19 March 2024 – 21:57

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Today, another “Ramstein” took place – a meeting of countries that support our defense, our protection against Russian terror. This was a productive meeting, and there are results. Ukraine’s Defense Minister Umerov took part in it. I am waiting for his detailed report. I can say a few things now. There will be new defense packages, including scarce artillery. New states are joining the Czech initiative to purchase ammunition – thank you all. Of course, the priority for air defense, electronic warfare and drones remains unchanged. I am grateful to all the countries that are genuinely working to give appropriate substance to this priority of ours. Ukrainian drones are already yielding solid results, and we need to significantly boost the international component of cooperation. The frontline must feel our strengthening in terms of drones. I am grateful to all the “Ramstein” participants and to the United States, to Secretary Austin for leadership.

I would also like to recognize Germany today for the announced defense package of half a billion euros. It includes artillery and armored vehicles. We greatly appreciate the German contribution to the protection of Ukrainian lives and our independence.

I held a meeting on our international activities in March and April. New security agreements with partners are being prepared for signing, and new legal steps will be taken to bring Russian war criminals to justice. It is important that this movement – the movement for justice – has constant momentum, constant strengthening. I am grateful to everyone in the team of our state and in all international institutions who are working for this – for justice. The Russian state, its leadership, and every war criminal must be held accountable for everything they do, and in particular, they must be held accountable in the legal sphere. The world needs to see how international justice works in response to aggression and terror. I’ll give you just one example right now: Sumy region that borders Russian territory. There are constant Russian attempts to bring in a subversive group, constant terrorist attacks and shelling. The Russian army is trying to burn our border villages to the ground. From the beginning of March to the present day, Russian aviation has dropped almost 200 guided bombs on the communities of Sumy region alone. Targeting villages, cities, and civilian infrastructure. The obvious need for Ukraine is to bolster our air defense in such a way as to make this terror impossible. In Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk and southern regions. Wherever it is needed. Our partners have the appropriate systems. We need to expedite the F-16 program as much as possible too. I thank everyone who helps. It is important for the great countries that have the necessary weapons to be truly great in protecting lives – not to keep these weapons in depots somewhere, but to make sure that Patriots and everything else actually works to save lives.

Today I would like to recognize the warriors of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine. All those who destroy Russian saboteurs, destroy their drones, and help people in the border communities of Ukraine. In particular, I would like to recognize the warriors of the Sumy detachment. Chief Sergeant Anton Sheremet, who, together with his brothers-in-arms, recently repelled an attack by a Russian subversive group. Thank you for your bravery! Senior Sergeant Yurii Vasyliev and Captain Ruslan Kravchenko – thank you guys for helping the locals during the shelling from the territory of Russia. Also, the Chernihiv border guard detachment – Sergeant Volodymyr Ihnatenko and Senior Sergeant Yurii Pavlenko. The guys are countering Russian drones and protecting our people from the occupiers’ attacks. Also, the Kharkiv border guard detachment – Senior Soldier Vladyslav Baidukov and Chief Sergeant Vladyslav Hurenko. Thank you guys for your efficiency! I would also like to mention the border guards of the Steel Frontier Offensive Guard Brigade, who, together with other units of the Defense Forces, are fighting at the front and protecting our state border. Senior Soldier Roman Dubovskyi and Sergeants Oleh Kyslyi and Vladyslav Yakymenko, as well as Staff Sergeant Yevhen Doroshenko, especially deserve our gratitude this week. Thank you, warriors, and all your brothers-in-arms!

And one more thing. Today I spoke with President of the European Council Charles Michel. We talked about defense support for our country and about relations with the European Union and its member states. We are preparing for a meeting of the European Council. And for important European decisions this year. In particular, economic ones, including the continuation of trade liberalization between Ukraine and the European Union, which is one of the vital elements of our resilience in the time of defense against Russian aggression. We are also preparing political decisions. In particular, it is crucial for us in Ukraine and for the whole of Europe that real negotiations on Ukraine’s membership begin in June, without delay. This will send the right political signal that Europe is strong enough to resist Russian pressure.

Thank you to everyone in the world who helps us! Glory to all our people who fight and work for Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrsky:

"Technologies and manufacturability are the keys to our edge over the enemy. Unmanned systems are of the essence here, so my priority is developing their use…

We're looking for asymmetric solutions to ensure…

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) March 19, 2024

Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrsky:

“Technologies and manufacturability are the keys to our edge over the enemy. Unmanned systems are of the essence here, so my priority is developing their use…

We’re looking for asymmetric solutions to ensure intangible advantage over a quantitatively superior adversary.”

Canada steps up!

Canada will provide over $40 million to purchase large-caliber ammunition rounds for Ukraine within Czech initiative.

In addition, Minister @BillBlair announced that Canada will be donating a package of night vision devices, worth approximately $7.5 million. The donation will be… https://t.co/ZOyjknXpb0

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 19, 2024

Canada will provide over $40 million to purchase large-caliber ammunition rounds for Ukraine within Czech initiative.

In addition, Minister @BillBlair announced that Canada will be donating a package of night vision devices, worth approximately $7.5 million. The donation will be sourced from Canadian company Twenty20 Insight Inc.

We are grateful to our Canadian friends for their steadfast support. Together, we are stronger.
🇺🇦🤝🇨🇦

Here’s the full press release from the government of Canada:

Minister Blair announces $40 million to provide Ukraine with artillery ammunition at the 20th meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group

News release

March 19, 2024 – Ottawa, Ontario – National Defence / Canadian Armed Forces

Today, the Honourable Bill Blair, Minister of National Defence, participated via videoconference in the 20th Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) meeting, hosted by United States Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III. The meeting brought together representatives from approximately 50 countries, who reaffirmed their commitment to providing Ukraine with the critical military aid that it needs.

At the meeting, Minister Blair announced that Canada is committing over $40 million to Czechia’s initiative to purchase large-calibre ammunition rounds for Ukraine. This will enable the delivery of several thousand rounds of artillery ammunition to Ukraine. This commitment follows last month’s signing of the Canada-Czechia Defence Cooperation Memorandum of Understanding, which establishes a framework for defence cooperation between Canada and Czechia, including in the area of support for Ukraine.

In addition, Minister Blair announced that Canada will be donating a package of night vision devices to assist Ukrainian Armed Forces with nighttime operations. This donation, worth approximately $7.5 million, will be sourced from Canadian company Twenty20 Insight Inc.

Minister Blair also confirmed that Canada has officially joined the UDCG’s Drone Capability Coalition co-led by Latvia and the United Kingdom, as Canada committed earlier this month. Among other things, this Coalition brings together UDCG members working to find ways to scale up drone production with the collective goal of delivering one million drones to Ukraine. Canada’s initial contribution includes more than 800 drones from Teledyne, as announced recently by Minister Blair. The first delivery is expected to arrive in Ukraine this spring.

The donations announced today demonstrate Canada’s ongoing commitment to providing Ukrainians with the critical and longer-term military aid that they need to defend their country. Canada’s steadfast support for Ukraine includes commitments made in the historic Agreement on Security Cooperation between Canada and Ukraine, signed last month by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv.

Quotes

“During our discussions, Ukrainian officials have been clear that they need more artillery ammunition, rapidly. As we advance work to increase the domestic production of 155 mm with our Canadian industry partners, we are also committed to meeting Ukraine’s urgent needs as quickly as possible. By supporting Czechia’s initiative to donate large volumes of artillery munitions to Ukraine, Canada is stepping up to meet one of Ukraine’s most pressing defensive requirements. Now and for the long term, Canada stands with Ukraine.”

The Honourable Bill Blair, Minister of National Defence

Quick facts

• The UDCG was created by U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III in April 2022 for allies and partners to synchronize donations, consult, and coordinate military assistance to Ukraine, and build the capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). Regularly convening at the ministerial level, the UDCG now brings together more than 50 countries.
• Since February 2022, Canada has committed over $13.3 billion in funding to support Ukraine. This includes $4 billion in military assistance, such as M777 howitzers, Leopard 2 main battle tanks, armoured combat support vehicles, hundreds of thousands of rounds of ammunition, hundreds of drones, and more.
• Canada has already donated approximately 40,000 rounds of 155 mm artillery ammunition to Ukraine, sourced from both the Canadian Armed Forces’ stocks and from purchases through the United States government.
• Since the launch of Operation UNIFIER, the Canadian Armed Forces’ (CAF) mission for military training and capacity building in support of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Canada has trained approximately 40,000 members of the AFU. Canada has extended this mission until March 2026, providing significant capacity for the CAF to respond to Ukraine’s urgent training needs.
• More than 300 CAF members are deployed on Operation UNIFIER in various roles, such as the provision and coordination of training, national command support, and the facilitation and delivery of military donations in coordination with Allies and partners.
• Since 2022, Canada has three CC-130J Hercules tactical airlift aircraft, alongside a detachment of approximately 60 CAF personnel, conducting operations from a hub based out of Prestwick, Scotland. The detachment has delivered over fifteen million pounds of aid to Ukraine, from Canada and from our Allies and partners.
• In recent months, the UDCG has launched various Capability Coalitions which involve various nations working together to reinforce Ukraine’s capabilities in particular areas. Canada is part of the Air Force Capability Coalition, the Armour Capability Coalition, and now, the Drone Capability Coalition.

Luxembourg:

Thank you, Luxembourg, for your support!
Our strength is in unity 🇺🇦🤝🇱🇺 https://t.co/pQMI8hcJ3M

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 19, 2024

Germany:

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced a new military aid package for Ukraine worth almost 500 million euros. The package includes ammunition from Bundeswehr stocks, the Czech initiative, and contracts with industry.
We are grateful to our German friends for their… https://t.co/9s6Q5Tg9ct

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 19, 2024

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced a new military aid package for Ukraine worth almost 500 million euros. The package includes ammunition from Bundeswehr stocks, the Czech initiative, and contracts with industry.
We are grateful to our German friends for their steadfast support!
Together, to victory!
🇺🇦🤝🇩🇪

Finland:

Finland will provide €30 million to procure artillery shells for Ukraine within the Czech initiative.

We are grateful to our Finnish partners for this important decision and unwavering support. Together, we will win!
🇺🇦🤝🇫🇮@anttihakkanen @DefenceFinland pic.twitter.com/ZxyTVnwsHh

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 19, 2024

The US:

These graphics are designed to inform the debate on how the battlefield could degrade if current challenges are not addressed soon.

They are not traditional warning products, but can be used to inform that process. (2/4)

— Dara Massicot (@MassDara) March 19, 2024

These signposts are not foregone conclusions. Conditions can stabilize and improve with the near-term approval and dissemination of critical ammunition from the west, and additional manpower. Separate threads on the ground and air campaigns will follow. (4/4) pic.twitter.com/BIJ67IEQrT

— Dara Massicot (@MassDara) March 19, 2024

Here are the full size infographics:

I’ve got plenty to say, but I’m just going to bite my tongue and seethe.

Michael Kofman, now also at the Carnegie Endowment, provides his assessment of where things stand in Ukraine as a result of a recent fact finding trip. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App and the last two tweets from the thread:

Some brief thoughts following a recent field study trip to Ukraine. The current situation is difficult, but UA is working to stabilize the front. Much depends on whether the US provides support, and UA effectively addresses its manpower issues in the coming months. 1/

— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) March 19, 2024

The main challenges are manpower, fortifications, and ammunition. These are interrelated problems. There is also the issue of sustainment, which needs to shift towards localization of maintenance, and spare parts production for a diverse park of Western equipment. 2/ 

Mobilization requires resourcing. Western assistance and UA manpower issues are connected. UA needs funding and training support. However, the lead times to resolve manpower issues are significantly greater than what it will take to ship ammo if the supplemental is passed. 3/ 

Ukraine needs more infantry in particular, which is not difficult to equip. Battalions end up with few platoons of viable infantry, unable to execute key tasks. Infantry is necessary not just for assault, but to hold the defensive lines and entrenchments which are being built. 4/ 

Mobilization is not just about changing policies on who is drafted or finding more manpower. It is about addressing terms of service, demobilization, and a host of other issues to stabilize the force. Right now, finding manpower within the force is at best a stopgap measure. 5/ 

A plan to build nationwide fortifications is being implemented, with a vision of multiple lines and a system of defensive positions/fortified points. The immediate challenge is weak secondary positions behind the forward lines being held by troops at the front. 6/ 

The AFU is short on artillery ammo & barrels are a growing issue. This is where Western material assistance remains essential. As Congress debates the supplemental, a combination of ammunition deficits and manpower issues, are resulting in Russian gains. 7/ 

At this point Russia’s fires advantage of 5:1 to 6:1 is significant, but not decisive. The growing problem is a higher rate of glide bomb employment by the Russian VKS, averaging 30-40 per day on parts of the front and from increasingly longer ranges (from 40-55km to 60km+). 8/ 

Glide bombs are fairly inaccurate, but destructive. They are not a form of close air support. However, they suppress units, destroy buildings, and fortifications. One of the reasons the AFU was pressed from Avdiivka was the concentrated volume of UMPK strikes by Russian VKS. 9/ 

In 2023, Russia was able to replace its losses, and generate additional combat formations. This means they likely recruited several hundred thousand troops. Though RF has not generated enough to rotate out those initially mobilized in 2022, this was not a priority for Moscow. 10/ 

The primary limiting factor for Russia is not ammunition or manpower, but likely equipment, and capacity to employ forces at scale (quality). Russian forces can ill afford to throw away an army’s worth of equipment for an offensive like Avdiivka given their replacement rate. 11/ 

Most of the Russian equipment comes out of storage, slowly eating through its Soviet legacy. While new production is increasing, it is doubtfully more than 20% of replacements. Hence, Russian forces could face growing equipment challenges in 2025-2026 (depending on losses). 12/ 

Russian forces in some cases are employing T-54/55s, or MT-LBs, for battle taxis to deploy troops in assaults due to a lack of BMPs or more suitable vehicles. This doesn’t mean the Russian mil will run out of AFVs anytime soon, but it is illustrative of their constraints. 13/ 

Conserving equipment for RF means a destruction-centered approach, leveraging fires advantage and pursuing small group (assault group) infantry assaults. This yields incremental gains, but unlikely to generate major breakthroughs (as UA’s own offensive in 2023 demonstrated). 14/ 

With such tactics Russian forces have been unable to breakthrough in areas where they should be able to advance more easily, like the Robotyne salient south of Orikhiv. But larger offensives, akin to the initial Avdiivka assault, are likely coming this summer and in the fall. 15/ 

Ukraine’s ability to intercept Russian long-range drones is improving, based on a network of sensors, EW systems, and mobile defense groups which now intercept over 40% of such strikes. Cheap forms of strike are steadily being countered by cheap forms of intercept. 16/ 

Across parts of the front Ukrainian forces fight in a more integrated fashion, combining electronic recon systems, EW, with drone units, in a better synchronized, and information driven approach. In elite units this forms a system. (Example: Madyar’s drone unit) 17/

Ukraine is scaling up production of FPV drones, to exceed 1M this year. But basic FPVs are readily countered by EW. The contest is therefore increasingly moving from quantitative to qualitative dimensions. Drone units are differentiated by skill and integration. 18/ 

At this stage, strike drones offer an offset for artillery ammo deficits (particularly in defensive operations), but are not a replacement for the volume of fire, area of effect, and suppression artillery delivers. Elite unit performance is not reflective of the entire front. 19/ 

With Western support, a stabilized AFU could hold this year against Russian offensives. This presumes fortifications are established (currently in progress), UA has funding + ammo support, and the manpower problem is addressed by Kyiv in the coming months. 20/ 

An expanded strike campaign, which I argued with colleagues should be part of the strategy for 2024, is a cost effective way to create challenges for the Russian state. Strikes against Russian energy infrastructure are one example of such a campaign. 21/

Hold, Build, and Strike: A Vision for Rebuilding Ukraine’s Advantage in 2024 – War on the RocksThis winter, Ukraine’s military is visibly running on fumes, as recent reporting shows M109 Paladin artillery outside Bakhmut receiving only smoke shellshttps://warontherocks.com/2024/01/hold-build-and-strike-a-vision-for-rebuilding-ukraines-advantage-in-2024/

Western industrial capacity is increasing. Ukraine’s commercial maritime traffic has picked up significantly. If Ukraine can hold through 2024, Russia’s current advantage in this war does not necessarily increase, or become decisive, but instead can decrease over time. 22/

If you're interested in a much deeper discussion of these topics, please have a listen to the recent Russia Contingency with @RALee85 https://t.co/KpKA2ggmQj and the most recent one released with Ryan Evans (open to all) https://t.co/ZB8QnsRDyu

— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) March 19, 2024

The Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) News decided to do an Aussie version of Cletis safari with the Russian occupiers in Ukraine:

By summer 2022 they were dooming about Severodonetsk, and that's when the "We need peace at all costs" started to appear. Then Kharkiv and Kherson happened.

— SK Media (@SpaghettiKozak) March 19, 2024

And that leads to this. No matter how much the media pretends it understands russian disinfo, they allowed themselves to be duped into producing laundered propaganda. It'll get worse.

— SK Media (@SpaghettiKozak) March 19, 2024

As a purveyor of Russian channels, I can confidently say you don’t need “unprecedented access” to their trenches to figure out the only thing they talk about is robbing, threatening, conquering, and hating absolutely anyone who doesn’t share their authoritarianism. https://t.co/xssvWkstbc

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) March 19, 2024

The Avdiivka front:

Another day on the Zaporizhzhia axis.
One of the @SOF_UKR units damaged/ destroyed:
* a 2S7 Pion self-propelled 203 mm cannon;
* a 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer;
* two D-30 122-mm howitzers;
* an APC and five units of automotive equipment.
This is what we call a job well… pic.twitter.com/ezpa85mN7w

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 19, 2024

Another day on the Zaporizhzhia axis.
One of the
@SOF_UKR
units damaged/ destroyed:
* a 2S7 Pion self-propelled 203 mm cannon;
* a 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer;
* two D-30 122-mm howitzers;
* an APC and five units of automotive equipment.
This is what we call a job well done.

Tatarigami has some thoughts on the Ukrainian attacks into Russia:

When discussing strategies for achieving victory, I believe one of the most pragmatic approaches for Ukraine lies in destabilizing Russia's power base, thereby prompting a shift by making this war unprofitable.

Historically, few rulers have maintained power solely through their…

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) March 19, 2024

When discussing strategies for achieving victory, I believe one of the most pragmatic approaches for Ukraine lies in destabilizing Russia’s power base, thereby prompting a shift by making this war unprofitable.

Historically, few rulers have maintained power solely through their own efforts, they rely heavily on the support of elites consensus. Such unwritten agreement exists between leaders and elites, wherein those with influence and resources bolster the regime in exchange for obtaining or preserving their own wealth and privileges.

Despite facing Western sanctions, Putin’s loyal elites have largely managed to maintain the status quo, with some even increasing their wealth. This perpetuates an unofficial agreement where both sides remain content overall.

In my view, the most effective means of altering this dynamic is to target Russia’s key economic assets, a tactic Ukraine partially has begun to employ successfully by attacking oil refineries.

This approach not only disrupts military logistics but also undermines the economic interests of those profiting most from the oil trade.

Intensifying the destruction of strategic assets that yield substantial profits for their owners serves as a potent signal that war is detrimental to business interests. As Ukraine enhances its long-range drone and potentially missile capabilities, the prospect of losing assets, contracts, and facing elevated insurance costs will inevitably lead to conclusion that war is an unprofitable venture for Russia, thereby compelling them to reconsider their stance in future negotiations, if not prompting a shift in power.

The will of the general populace in Russia hold little sway as long as key centers like Moscow and the elites within them can sustain their lifestyle without feeling the toll of war. While this may cause disruptions in global market prices and impact the global economy, in a scenario where Ukraine lacks sufficient aid to decisively end the war in its favor, I see few other practical alternatives.

Belgorod:

Kozinka, Belgorod Oblast, SMO zone, is not habitable anymore. pic.twitter.com/1JKZfozHzy

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) March 19, 2024

Belgorod, morning of 19 March. Not sure what the authorities are thinking, the city must be evacuated. pic.twitter.com/NM6rZBWQWP

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) March 19, 2024

Here’s some more info on the Ukrainian aligned Russian legions that have been raiding over the border.

Russian Volunteer Corps ambushes an imperial combat vehicle in Kozinka. pic.twitter.com/1EH0B1s5Cb

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) March 19, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos. Here’s some adjacent material.

For Caturday, I want to share a video sent to me by my friend Sergiy, who was murdered yesterday in the Russian missile attacks on Odesa.

Sergiy was just as kind to animals as he was to people. This is Rudyk 😺 who lives at Odesa City Hall. pic.twitter.com/5jj1tQJsBU

— Nate Mook (@natemook) March 16, 2024

Today's Ukrainian cat—look at this handsome hunk. His name is Claudie and he's at the @catsonmars_ua shelter being taken care of by Uncle Eugene @eugenehmg. pic.twitter.com/PfkofiUdI8

— The Spirit of Lorenzo the Cat (@LorenzoTheCat) March 19, 2024

Today’s Ukrainian cat—rescued in Sloviansk by Vladimir and Sergiy, two really good guys. pic.twitter.com/FxoxVDzuxC

— The Spirit of Lorenzo the Cat (@LorenzoTheCat) March 18, 2024

"How are you doing? Scared? Me too. That's okay…"

Ukrainian Warrior of the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade showed an archive video from Avdiivka.

In the midst of fierce fighting, the defender did not forget about a frightened, hungry dog hiding in a house destroyed by shelling. pic.twitter.com/3lCgcmKgs9

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) March 18, 2024

Thanks for the photo and feedback 😍

— Kateryna Sus (@Catyunya_) March 19, 2024

Crufts 2024: Ukrainian refugee dog Adriana wins award https://t.co/JqmIkQRuos

— ChicMik (@ChyMik) March 17, 2024

From the BBC:

The owner of a dog rehomed from Ukraine and that has won a top prize at Crufts has said she “lives life to the full”.

Cocker spaniel Adriana was rescued two years ago and won the Best of Breed award at this year’s dog show.

Adriana’s owner Michael Masters, 65, from Somerset, helped her beat more than 400 other spaniels to win the title in Birmingham.

Mr Masters said he was worried she would get “spooked” by the clapping and it was a “big achievement”.

Adriana was rescued from her home in Ukraine when she was seven-months-old, after the country was invaded by Russia.

She spent time being cared for in Poland and Germany after her owner sent her away for her own safety.

Mr Masters, who works as a minibus driver, brought her over to the UK to give her a new life.

“Adriana was being pushed from pillar to post before I paid for her to come over, she arrived at eight-months-old.

“Despite her turbulent youth, Adriana is a very happy little dog who lives life to the full,” Mr Masters added.

Open thread!