This is adapted from my BlueSky thread on the topic last night:

What people need to realize when they call for a ceasefire or an armistice or even a humanitarian pause, until or unless the parties to the conflict have exhausted themselves or decided they cannot achieve their objectives through fighting and choose to negotiate, the only way to accomplish a ceasefire is by force! I’m not knocking the idea of those things, nor am I trying to crap on the activism/activists & just regular people calling for those things, but the reality is that to achieve a ceasefire now, while both Israel and Hamas want to keep fighting, means it would have to be imposed by force.

People need to recognize that neither the current Israeli government, nor Hamas are going to stop what they’re doing. That means they would have to be stopped. And we need to grapple with what that means.

Specifically:

1. Denial of flight/denial of launch. Basically if the IAF puts aircraft up or Hamas launches missiles or rockets, the planes are brought down, the missiles, rockets, & launchers are taken out, & the enforcing party is running a combat air patrol (CAP) 24/7.
2. Remember, Hamas puts its launchers adjacent to civilian facilities and residences to try to deter Israel from taking them out. The enforcing party is going to have the same problem that the Israelis have now: how to manage and mitigate civilian harm while destroying legitimate targets.
3. Once the airspace is secured, then ground forces will have to be introduced into the theater in order to separate the two fighting parties. This will require overwhelming force. Trying to finesse it with under 200K personnel like in Iraq won’t cut it.
4. The ideal force would be a coalition with personnel provided by the Arab & Muslim states with US/NATO backing. That won’t be acceptable to Israel. The Egyptians have made it clear they want as little to do with this conflict as possible. The Saudis have the best demonstration military money can buy. So that won’t work. The Jordanian Air Force is top notch, but King Abdullah isn’t going to send them abroad for the same reason he tries to stay out of every regional conflict: survival. Iraq’s military is needed to keep Iraq intact. Lebanon’s military – and I’ve taught two of their generals – can barely keep Lebanon intact. The Gulf states/Emirates will keep their forces at home because they don’t trust their neighbors – the other emirates and Iran. Pakistan’s military would work, but they won’t deploy them for fear that India will take advantage. The Afghan Special Operations Forces we trained are mostly in exile in Iran. We could pay them to be the ground force, which would be good, but there aren’t enough of them.
5. That leaves us with what it always leaves us: the US. The US is the only state with the force structure, capacity, and capability to do this. Even if it pulled in some NATO and non-NATO allies and partners. This is NOT GOING to happen! It isn’t going to happen because the domestic political fallout in the US would ripped the already raw, gaping socio-political cleavages we have completely open.

Imagine if you will what happens the first time the US blows up a Hamas rocket launcher and there’s civilian casualties because of where its placed? Or what happens when the air wings on those carriers in the Med sortie against the Israeli Air Force and brings Israeli fighters down?

I am not advocating against a ceasefire, armistice, or even a humanitarian pause. But what I’ve delineated here are the strategists’ dilemmas of implementing one. Neither side wants to stop what they’re doing, that means they would have to be stopped.

Doing that would be far more catastrophic than what is happening now. I know that sounds harsh and cruel, but it’s the truth. There’s only one actor who can stop this: the US. Doing so is going to be devastating to both parties to the conflict. And it will tear the US apart.

The Israeli-Palestinian dispute was already the wickedest of wicked problems. Forcing the two sides to stop would require the application of overwhelming force to create that cessation between Israel and Hamas. And it would make things worse not better.

Finally, one last point: Mueller She Wrote is NOT a reliable source. I’ve already marked my beliefs to market on the front page that I got the analysis and assessment of what Special Counsel Mueller would do not just wrong, but very wrong! That I allowed my understanding of his history as a take no prisoners, upright career prosecutor and a straight shooting FBI director to color my judgement of the fact that he was both a career protector of the DOJ and FBI as institutions, as well as a lifelong Republican. I was wrong. I have worked very hard to not be wrong on this type of topic since.

Mueller She Wrote has not done this and simply transferred her rose tinted glasses to Jack Smith. Finally, she has seriously credibility issues, which are part of her extensive record of litigation. Here’s just one example: (emphasis mine)

The issue before the Court is when courts should seal court files from public inspection pursuant to Virginia Code § 20-124, and whether it should seal the file in the present case. The Court has generated and considered a list of limiting principles any court may wish to consider to guide the exercise of its statutory discretion to seal a file.

The Court holds the parties in this case rebutted, in part, the strong presumption in favor of public access to their court file. Accordingly, the Court orders parts of the file to be sealed. This Opinion Letter and accompanying Order shall not be sealed….

[The facts below] were derived from the Court’s file and the testimony of Adam Falkoff at the hearing on November 7, 2019. Alison Gill (f/k/a Falkoff) did not appear….

On October 11, 2016, Alison Falkoff (“Wife”) filed a Verified Complaint for Divorce in this Court. However, a long-pending divorce and child custody lawsuit was already pending in Florida. Despite this, Wife, in her Complaint, incorrectly swore that she had “not participated as a party, witness, or in any other capacity, in any other litigation concerning the custody of her children in this or any other state or country.” She also incorrectly swore that she did not “know of any custody proceeding concerning her children pending in any other court of this or any other state that could affect the current proceeding.” In reality, the parties were engaged in active Florida domestic relations litigation since February 2013.

Wife nonsuited [i.e., voluntarily dismissed] the Fairfax case on December 6, 2016, after Adam Falkoff’s (“Husband”) lawyers alerted her lawyers to the Florida action. Husband now asks that the Court seal the records in the terminated Fairfax matter.

The Fairfax Complaint was filled with moral and salacious allegations, among other unpleasantries. Husband testified they were all false. He offered documentary evidence to support some of his testimony. Since the matter was nonsuited, the allegations are unproven.

Husband testified he is a consultant of Capital Keys. He did not tell the Court the specific nature of his business but claimed his reputation is critical to obtaining and keeping clients. To promote his business, he highlights personal recognition, including his receipt of the 2018 Ellis Island Award and his inclusion on Washington Life magazine’s “Power 100” list of the “most influential persons” in Washington.

Husband testified Wife has been trying to sabotage his business by sending copies of her nonsuited Complaint—long after it had already been nonsuited—to his clients, associates, and acquaintances. The organization that awarded him the Ellis Island Award revoked his award upon receiving the Complaint. They reinstated his award after he protested, proclaiming the falsity of the allegations. Things did not turn out as well with the “Power 100” list. Husband made the list in 2017 and 2018. However, the magazine told him he was not on the 2019 list because of the Complaint allegations. The magazine disregarded his protests as to the veracity of the allegations.

Husband has fewer clients this year than in the past and avers this is a direct result of Wife’s sending them copies of the Complaint.

To further demonstrate social harm, Husband points to at least one acquaintance who told him Wife recently sent her a copy of the Complaint. The acquaintance had thought the divorce concluded and so it puzzled her. Husband explained the circumstances to defend himself against the salacious allegations. Wife uses the fact that the Complaint is a public record as a sword— she treats it a type of proof text and encourages others to go to the Courthouse to see it for themselves.

Husband is the sole financial provider to his minor children and has sole custody of them. He fears his children will see the allegations and that, if they do see them, they, too, will be harmed….

These are the remarks of the judge explaining why he was sealing part of the judicial record, he explained: (emphasis mine)

The Falkoff file should be sealed, in part, but the Court’s reasons for doing so—including this Opinion Letter—should be public. In this case, the Falkoffs were long engaged in domestic relations litigation in Florida. Knowing this, Wife filed a salacious Verified Complaint of Divorce falsely denying the existence of the Florida action. Thus, the entire Virginia action was based on a foundational misrepresentation. Once Husband’s counsel alerted Wife’s Virginia counsel of the Florida action, Wife nonsuited the action….

The Court … recognizes the strong presumption of openness. The Court discounts the fact that both parties asked the Court to seal the records. Husband is a public figure, owing to his inclusion on the “Power 100” list of the “most influential persons” in Washington, so the parties’ hurdle to seal the record is higher than for most. Nevertheless, the parties’ reasons for sealing the records are particularized and are not stated in the abstract. Husband has lost clients because they learned of the allegations in the Virginia Complaint. He lost recognition important to him—the Ellis Island Award and his inclusion on the “Power 100” list. He was able to reinstate the former award but had to protest to regain it. He was unable to reinstate the latter recognition. In both cases, the awarding organizations told him the Complaint triggered his losses….

Presently, the file contains only the following items: the Complaint, Nonsuit Order, service materials, and the Motion to Seal materials. The Complaint is inherently relevant to the merits of the case; the balance of the materials is not. However, the Complaint is an orphaned pleading. Other than receiving it from Wife, the Court took no action on it other than to dismiss it on the parties’ request to nonsuit it. The Court adjudicated no issues on the merits. Nothing in the file demonstrates the Court’s deliberative process or decision-making….

[Moreover,] the fact that Wife filed the Complaint with an affidavit swearing no similar action was pending in another state even though an action had been long pending in Florida suggests a bad motive by Wife. Linking Husband’s sworn testimony, Defendant Exhibits 8 and 9 [which the Court exercises its discretion to seal], and the fact that the Complaint was dismissed without court action, the Court is led to disbelieve the allegations in the Complaint….

Having considered all the above factors, the Court finds that the file should be sealed in part. The initial filing was improper. The key document in the file—the Complaint—is an orphaned pleading that was never tested by the Court. As a result, the Court’s involvement was truly minimal. There were no rulings on the merits, and nothing in the file illustrates the Court’s deliberative process. Husband introduced credible evidence that the fully open file has caused actual, particularized harm. Based on the November 7, 2019, hearing, the Court has doubts as to the veracity of at least some of allegations contained in the Complaint. The parties rebutted the presumption against sealing.

Ms. Gill is a fantasist and conspiracist. Judge David Oblon of the Virginia Circuit Court has found her to be neither truthful nor credible; she lied to his court. She is grifting off of your hopes and fears. She doesn’t mark her beliefs to market. All of these similar folks – like the convicted human trafficker Beau of the 5th column – are counting on your hope for something positive to happen combined with most people’s lack of subject matter expertise to keep your attention focused on them. To click their like buttons, to subscribe, to “buy them a coffee” or make a donation. They’re not themselves subject matter experts on any of the stuff they opine on. They are selling magic beans. Don’t buy them!

Open thread!