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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

There is no right way to do the wrong thing.

New McCarthy, same old McCarthyism.

Some judge needs to shut this circus down soon.

We are builders in a constant struggle with destroyers. keep building.

If America since Jan 2025 hasn’t broken your heart, you haven’t loved her enough.

Our messy unity will be our strength.

When someone says they “love freedom”, rest assured they don’t mean yours.

Never give a known liar the benefit of the doubt.

Lick the third rail, it tastes like chocolate!

Reality always gets a vote in the end.

“In the future, this lab will be a museum. do not touch it.”

Putting aside our relentless self-interest because the moral imperative is crystal clear.

When I decide to be condescending, you won’t have to dream up a fantasy about it.

There is no compromise when it comes to body autonomy. You either have it or you do not.

I’d like to think you all would remain faithful to me if i ever tried to have some of you killed.

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires republicans to act in good faith.

Let there be snark.

It’s always darkest before the other shoe drops.

He wakes up lying, and he lies all day.

Decision time: keep arguing about the last election, or try to win the next one?

This must be what justice looks like, not vengeful, just peaceful exuberance.

Republicans: slavery is when you own me. freedom is when I own you.

No one could have predicted…

Since when do we limit our critiques to things we could do better ourselves?

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Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

Open Threads

You are here: Home / Archives for Open Threads

Wee Hours Open Thread

by WaterGirl|  November 17, 20231:05 am| 52 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Rather than counting sheep so everyone who wants to can fall asleep, I’ll start you off with another question, which you can absolutely ignore and instead talk about whatever you please.

What was the worst haircut you ever had?  Alternatively, you could tell us the worst hairstyle you ever wore.  Surely there are some mullets out there, right?

And some bonus late-night Henry.  Before and after a haircut.

Before.

Hodgepodge, Mishmash or Smorgasbord?

After.

Open thread.

Wee Hours Open ThreadPost + Comments (52)

War for Ukraine Day 631: What Ukrainian Air Defense Doing?

by Adam L Silverman|  November 16, 20238:41 pm| 18 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Russia opened up on Ukraine again last night. Ukrainian air defense countered:

Screen grab of a machine translated post from the Air Force of Ukraine's Telegram channel. It indicates that Ukrainian air defense shot down 16 Shahed drones and 1 cruise missile on 16 NOV 2023.

Downing Shaheed kamikaze drones by Ukrainian mobile air defense crewshttps://t.co/stByOuskxs pic.twitter.com/24mH4Vjc1Q

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 16, 2023

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

I want to thank all our defenders of the sky: their result is a result for the whole country, it is a salvation for our people, for our cities – address by the President of Ukraine

16 November 2023 – 19:29

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

A few summaries of the day.

First of all, I want to thank all our defenders of the sky who are on combat duty every night and every day. Overnight, we managed to shoot down 16 ” Shaheds” alone.

I thank all the pilots and engineers of the Ukrainian Air Force, all our anti-aircraft gunners and warriors of mobile fire groups. Every time they achieve a result, it is a result for the whole country. This is a salvation for our people, for our cities, for Ukrainian infrastructure.

Of course, I also thank everyone in the world who helps.

The geography of our cooperation for the sake of a sky shield for Ukraine is very extensive. Not everything can be told publicly now. But what is absolutely certain is that Ukraine is constantly getting stronger. Our air defense capabilities are increasing.

Of course, this is not yet a hundred percent protection. There is a lot of work to be done. Cities like Kharkiv, regions like Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia need more systems, more security. This is the task of all our diplomats, of our entire state.

I thank everyone who is effective in this.

The second point for today. The Day of Radio, Television and Communications. A special day. It combines creative professions and a lot of technical and organizational work. It brings together those who are on and off camera. Those who are on the air and without whom no broadcast is possible.

I congratulate the employees of the entire industry on this day and sincerely thank them for the fact that Ukraine was not left without information for a single day of the full-scale war. And communication – even when the occupiers disrupted it – was always restored.

Under fire and in the de-occupied areas, in all cities and communities, there are always those who work for the sake of awareness of Ukrainians, for the sake of communication for our people, for the sake of the world knowing and understanding Ukraine and what we want.

Today I held several meetings with media representatives. I met online with journalists, editors, producers – in general, with the employees of the channels that ensure the work of the United News marathon. This is a very important element of our unbreakability and our unity.

I thanked them for this work, for their energy and efforts in raising awareness and protecting people from Russian disinformation in the interests of the entire society. I also met – offline, in person – with journalists working for leading foreign media, news agencies, English-language Ukrainian media and radio. It was a long, very productive and interesting conversation. I am grateful for every question, almost all of them were difficult. We will definitely do some of the things that the journalists talked about today. First of all, it concerns media access to the frontline – the opportunity to cover more frontline events. But, of course, all the other topics that were raised will be followed by the relevant decisions.

One more thing.

The new British Foreign Secretary, David Cameron, visited Ukraine. This is his first working visit in this position. A visit to Ukraine. I am grateful for the attention to our country, to our people and for this signal to the world.

A signal that by helping Ukraine, you are helping global stability.

We talked about the frontline, weapons for our warriors, some very important and sensitive issues of international relations. It was a good meeting.

These days, an important international event at the parliamentary level took place – the Parliamentary Assembly of the Organization of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation. The Summit is in Ukraine. I am grateful to the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Ruslan Stefanchuk for organizing the summit. I addressed the participants. I believe that we should all pay more attention to what Ukraine has achieved in the Black Sea.

Our country has fundamentally changed the situation in the Black Sea – Russia has lost control. And in general, it has lost hope of keeping the Black Sea for itself as a springboard for aggression against other nations. We will do everything to enhance this result.

Glory to everyone who is fighting and working for Ukraine and our independence! I thank everyone who helps!

Glory to Ukraine!

President @ZelenskyyUa:
“I am grateful to all of our people who are fighting and working for Ukraine. To our warriors, who make it possible for Ukraine to live with each stride and with their strength. I thank them all for everything they do for our country’s freedom and… pic.twitter.com/y5PJStWMJ3

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 16, 2023

President @ZelenskyyUa:
“I am grateful to all of our people who are fighting and working for Ukraine. To our warriors, who make it possible for Ukraine to live with each stride and with their strength. I thank them all for everything they do for our country’s freedom and independence.”

https://twitter.com/krides/status/1724797003060965461

Selydove, Donetsk Oblast:

The search and rescue operation in Selydove, Donetsk region, continues for the second day.
According to @SESU_UA, at least two people are dead and three are injured as a result of a russian missile attack on a residential district in this town.#russiaisaterroriststate

📹:… pic.twitter.com/RH1GaH1ACe

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 16, 2023

Kherson:

Thanks for the help to Julia Rudeva Iryna Kostiniuk @berdynskykh_k @most_ks_ua Silviya Nitsova and all the resilient people of Kherson! pic.twitter.com/SqocC47gXW

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) November 16, 2023

Here’s the full video:

Zaporizhzhia front:

Part 2
58th Brigade repels Russian attack Zaporizhzhia front.
There is also a rare documented video of a tank battle, with a fragment where a tank of a 58th Brigade destroys a Russian one.https://t.co/vHqCFTnkxF https://t.co/JbUr6pfdxb pic.twitter.com/lseD77pOde

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 16, 2023

Avdiivka:

The use of MT-LB as a kamikaze by Russians, Avdiivka front. The MT-LB was said to have been loaded with 2 tons of explosives. The vehicle didn’t get anywhere because it hit a mine.https://t.co/dsJ3vnjMxqhttps://t.co/kxGs3TKwOO pic.twitter.com/WPsG5EZRGg

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 16, 2023

It seems like that after running out of functioning vehicles, Russians are back in their ISIS tactics, sending in the husks of their remaining garbage to be send in as suicide vehicles at the Avdiivka front. But it ends prematurely on a mine somewhere in no-man’s land and next to… pic.twitter.com/rhieXA8HSp

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) November 16, 2023

It seems like that after running out of functioning vehicles, Russians are back in their ISIS tactics, sending in the husks of their remaining garbage to be send in as suicide vehicles at the Avdiivka front. But it ends prematurely on a mine somewhere in no-man’s land and next to the Russian tank graveyard. The shockwave is another eye opener.

Source: Telegram / russianocontext

#Ukraine #Donetsk #Avdiivka

Vodiane:

A short update about enemy advance near Vodiane, south of Avdiivka.

Our mutual enemy advancing every day. Sometimes just with infantry, sometimes with the help of IFV. Especially tanks.

So what about tanks for the last period of time? pic.twitter.com/21HRLgwGiJ

— Kriegsforscher (@OSINTua) November 16, 2023

1) T-80BV was damaged and left at the end of October
2) T-80BMV (?) was damaged and left at 10.10.23 and still waits there (todays screen) pic.twitter.com/j8xfPpdCsC

— Kriegsforscher (@OSINTua) November 16, 2023

One more tank burning.

You might’ve noticed the fact about enormous Russian losses for the last month (well, I published unique photos so yeah).

But the point is that our mutual enemy doesn’t care about their lives. And it gives them some results. pic.twitter.com/fcfTc3mtxR

— Kriegsforscher (@OSINTua) November 16, 2023

https://twitter.com/OSINTua/status/1725241914679582734

Bakhmut:

After the successful attack of an FPV drone, the occupier turned into a ghost rider.

📹: 92nd Assault Brigade pic.twitter.com/aEuD8GZn5t

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 16, 2023

Here’s more from the 92 Assault Brigade/Hetman Ivan Sirko Brigade:

Kharkiv Oblast:

russian IFVs and tanks vs. Ukrainian Javelins.

📹: 14th Mechanized Brigade pic.twitter.com/d5941KPffY

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 16, 2023

Left bank of the Dnipro, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

Targeting of a Russian tank disguised as a pile of garbage. Left bank Kherson region. https://t.co/Ilu04RBlM4 pic.twitter.com/m3CKmajcam

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 16, 2023

 

Russian occupied Crimea:

Crimea is Ukraine 🇺🇦@DI_Ukraine released a video of their special forces preparation and implementation of raids on the territory of the temporarily occupied Crimea. pic.twitter.com/KWJmSFZfJu

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 16, 2023

Donetsk Oblast:

3rd SOF Regiment adjusts a HIMARS missile strike against a Russian ZALA drone unit. pic.twitter.com/SiwbF4kUyB

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) November 16, 2023

Obligatory:

Moscow:

Any word from Elmo about the butcher putting young people in prison for BEING ANTI-WAR? https://t.co/xrZ86phhw0

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) November 16, 2023

Skochilenko’s final words are worth reading in full.

“How weak is the prosecution’s faith in our state and society if it thinks five little slips of paper could make our statehood and public security collapse?”https://t.co/oUOXODEuIR

— max seddon (@maxseddon) November 16, 2023

Volgograd Oblast, Russia:

A fire and explosions/detonation of ammunition were reported on the territory of a military unit in the Volgograd region, Russia. pic.twitter.com/tfgSQlpAyP

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 16, 2023

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

A new video from Patron’s official TikTok!

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❤️‍🔥 #песпатрон #песпатронкавер

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Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 631: What Ukrainian Air Defense Doing?Post + Comments (18)

Thursday Night Open Thread: The Season Approaches

by Anne Laurie|  November 16, 20237:49 pm| 77 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, social media

“Please be safe” message joined with video footage of explosive destruction featuring food is as American as it gets

— Peter Wolf (@peterawolf) November 16, 2023


 
Speaking of gifting… I have a few BlueSky invite codes. If you’re interested, email me per the contact info — I’ll start my own waitlist, if necessary.

ETA:
All invite codes gone, for the moment. And an update from the developers:

Thursday Night Open Thread:  The Season Approaches

Thursday Night Open Thread: The Season ApproachesPost + Comments (77)

Now THIS Is A Headline

by Tom Levenson|  November 16, 20235:05 pm| 95 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Politics, Republican Stupidity

I know John’s post below covers the actual news about George Santos, but I think it’s important that we all savor the fine details of this story as made to shine in this instant classic from the Financial Times:

Now THIS Is A Headline

Tell me again about how the GOP is the party of authenticity and family values.

Let this be a late afternoon open thread. Because I am a kind person (narrator: assumption not in evidence) I will leave you not with any of the brain-bleachable moments induced by that magnificent hed, but with a cat picture or two:

Now THIS Is A Headline 1

Now THIS Is A Headline 3

With that, this thread is as open as Tikka’s yawping gob.

Image: Jean Siméon Chardin, Still life with cat and rayfish, c. 1728

Now THIS Is A HeadlinePost + Comments (95)

Fundraising for Four Direction in Montana – a Match and An Angel Match with new rules!

by WaterGirl|  November 16, 202310:20 am| 102 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Political Fundraising, Targeted Political Fundraising 2023-24

On Tuesday evening, we announced our fundraising effort – and a zoom with Four Directions.


Zoom With Four Directions Set for Thursday at 7 pm ET 1

Key Information 

  • Jon Tester is running what looks to be his toughest race yet!
  • So while it’s not a swing state, it is a strategic choice – this is is a seat we have to hold!
  • As always, we feel that boots on the ground is the best bang for our buck.
  • The Native American vote is critical, and they make up 6.5% of the population.
  • That’s far more than the margin of victory has been for Jon Tester in Montana.
  • Four Directions has secured an external match for us.
  • We have a Balloon Juice Angel match of donations up to $100 per person – up to $5k!
  • To be matched, add a comment with your donation amount.
  • With a match + an Angel match, $100 turns into $400, $50 into $200, $10 into $40.
  • Zoom with Four Directions to hear all about plans for Montana – RSVP by email to WaterGirl
  • We have raised the first half of the $5k match; our BJ Angel has already added $2,500 in the thermometer
  • Just $1,800 $1,515 $1,340 $1,215 $890 $750 $465 of matchable donations to go for Angel Match #1!

Click below for all the details.  And don’t forget to thank our BJ Angel!

Zoom With Four Directions Set for Thursday at 7 pm ET

Angel match starts now!


Donate

 

Fundraising for Four Direction in Montana – a Match and An Angel Match with new rules!Post + Comments (102)

Late Night Open Thread: No Fighting, No Biting!…*

by Anne Laurie|  November 16, 20233:13 am| 175 Comments

This post is in: Excellent Links, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Republicans in Disarray!, Schadenfreude

Is Markwayne Mullin ok?

A day after trying to start a fistfight in a committee hearing, the U.S. senator said Wednesday that he has no problem biting people.

“I’ll bite 100%," he said.

"And I don’t care where I bite, by the way.” ??https://t.co/mFsRN3QDog

— Jennifer Bendery (@jbendery) November 15, 2023

Late Night Open Thread: <em>No Fighting, No Biting</em>

In related news, my 4-year-old aged out of this book a while ago and it's available to anyone who can use it on Capitol Hill.

Maybe I'll just leave it out on a table in a Senate hearing room. pic.twitter.com/EKw40IgEZ3

— Jennifer Bendery (@jbendery) November 15, 2023

GIFT ARTICLE

THE OMINOUS RISE OF CONGRESSIONAL ANGER

[Seriously, the last time this happened WAS before the Civil War]

By Philip Bumphttps://t.co/oN4XgUJJyG

— Wilner: Republicans choosing fascism, with Trump (@JTMLX) November 15, 2023

Philip Bump, at the Washington Post — “The ominous rise of congressional anger”:

It is probably not terribly useful to draw sweeping conclusions from Sen. Markwayne Mullin’s demand Tuesday that a witness at a Senate hearing stand up and fight him. Mullin’s background is atypical for a senator, including a brief stint about 15 years ago during which he did mixed-martial arts fighting. The witness, meanwhile, was the head of the Teamsters union; his willingness to goad Mullin (R-Okla.) into the challenge was probably also atypical for someone appearing on Capitol Hill.

We might also be cautious about the weird, probably overheated interaction between Reps. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.), also on Tuesday, in which the latter accuses the former of elbowing him. Or the scuffle in January when the Republican Party was trying to elect McCarthy speaker in the first place. These were all isolated incidents, explainable in isolated contexts.

But there’s an undeniable thread that links them, an acceptance, however slight, of the idea that physical violence has a place in the resolution of disputes. Should this pattern continue — or accelerate — it would mirror other countries in which democracy is eroding. Including, at one point, the United States.

The question of the extent to which Americans accept political violence in general has been lingering for years now. The riot at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, crystallized those questions, given that it was an overt collapse of a democratic process — the 2020 presidential contest — into a violent effort by supporters of Donald Trump to help him retain power…

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There is no explicit Constitutional prohibition against suckerpunching a fellow Congressman in the halls of the Capitol Building, so it's hard to see what Kevin McCarthy did wrong here.

-Jonathan Turley

— New York Times Pitchbot (@DougJBalloon) November 15, 2023

Did not realize that the Senate hearing throwdown was over this tweet mocking Mullin for standing on a platform to feel taller during a debate ?? https://t.co/ZjjQDx8DNC

— Tim Miller (@Timodc) November 15, 2023

The outbreak of chest-thumping on Capitol Hill isn't b/c "tensions are high," it's because many Republicans exist in a constant state of panic over their manhood so they need to enact extravagant performances of masculinity. It's basically a drag show without the self-awareness.

— Paul Waldman (@paulwaldman1) November 15, 2023

This day —

Mullin kicked Burchett out of his workout group because of a “lack of character on his part” and that he doesn’t “trust” Burchett. Burchett said Mullin “berated” and “yelled at him” until he left.

colleagues @alweaver22 @mychaelschnell reporthttps://t.co/zZBpYhPYlt pic.twitter.com/pQ6ziFkO8p

— Emily Brooks (@emilybrooksnews) November 14, 2023

Every rich guy under 55 now rejects all notions of luxury or philanthropy in favor of crushing labor movements and learning MMA.

Raise taxes. They're clearly miserable. https://t.co/KDF38bB2bD

— zeddy (@Zeddary) November 15, 2023

* Since 1958!

Late Night Open Thread: <em>No Fighting, No Biting!…* </em>Post + Comments (175)

War for Ukraine Day 630: A Bit of Perspective

by Adam L Silverman|  November 15, 202310:10 pm| 9 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Graphic by NEIVANMADE of a Russian bomb with a "Z" symbol on it crashing through the roof of the Ukrainian Postal Service delivery hub. "Everyone Is a Target" and "Stop Russia" are written in the space between the destroyed roof and the fins of the bomb.

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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Russia is still capable of doing evil; we must make our state stronger every day – address by the President of Ukraine

15 November 2023 – 22:19

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

It was a rough day.

At night, there was a Russian missile attack on Selydove, Donetsk region. Right at residential buildings. Four missiles. There are dead. There are probably people under the rubble. The rubble is being cleared all day. All the wounded were provided with the necessary assistance. More than 20 houses were destroyed.

Another Russian strike hit Zaporizhzhia region, also with missiles. Among the dead are rescuers. They arrived at the scene after the first hit and started helping. And then there was a second strike. My condolences to all those whose relatives and friends were killed by Russian terror.

There was a lot of international communication today. Of course, first of all, about ways to provide more protection for Ukraine and all our people from these savages, from Russian missiles and shelling.

I spoke with Prime Minister of Italy Giorgia Meloni. I thanked Italy for its principled and powerful assistance to our country, for the protection of Ukrainian lives. Ukraine greatly appreciates that Italy stands with us at this moment. We also appreciate Giorgia’s personal energy, all the activity of Madam Prime Minister, with which she advocates for assistance to our country. We discussed our security cooperation and support packages. We exchanged views on the situation in Europe and the world. We also discussed some issues related to the new EU sanctions package. Italy will preside over the Group of Seven next year, and we are already working on the relevant priorities. Common priorities.

I spoke with President of Slovakia Zuzana Čaputová. I expressed gratitude for the support and fair recognition of Ukraine’s success in getting closer to the European Union – in our movement towards full membership. It is very important for our entire Europe to become stronger, and every state on the continent that respects the common rules of the EU will benefit from this. We discussed preparations of our energy sector for the winter and, as we expect, for the intensification of Russian terror against energy facilities. Of course, we also discussed economic issues that are important to our nations.

Today I also held talks with Justin Trudeau, Prime Minister of Canada. Defense support. Strengthening our air defense, our mobile fire groups and protection against Russian drones. There are specific agreements. I thanked Canada for its continued leadership in sanctions against Russia. There is a new and important Canadian initiative – a coalition of partners to return Ukrainian children who were deported to Russia. We also discussed the issue of completing the Holodomor Genocide Museum. Canada has agreed to help with this in Ukraine. I am grateful to Justin personally and to the entire Canadian society for such an understanding of Ukraine.

I also held several meetings today. I would like to mention a meeting with representatives of the law enforcement sector, including the Head of the Security Service of Ukraine. He reported on counteracting collaborators and protecting Ukrainians from those who deliberately incite hatred within our country.

I also had a meeting with the Minister of Defense and other government officials. All the key issues boil down to ensuring the protection of people, Ukraine’s ability to conduct offensive operations, and our ability to strengthen Ukraine – to overcome the accumulated problems.

Everyone in Ukraine must remember, especially those who have stopped noticing the war because they are fully focused on politics: Russia is still capable of doing evil. No one will be able to turn a blind eye. We have to fight. We must keep our defense as a top priority. And we must make our state stronger every day.

Glory to all those who care about Ukraine and Ukrainians!  

Glory to Ukraine!

Earlier today Ukraine’s Minister of Defense met with the US Ambassador to Ukraine:

I was glad to meet with @USAmbKyiv Bridget Brink.

Briefed the Ambassador about ongoing and planned reforms in the defence sector, including the launch of transparent procurement procedures, localization of defence production in Ukraine.

We discussed in detail our plans for… pic.twitter.com/KbdNWMo611

— Rustem Umerov (@rustem_umerov) November 15, 2023

I was glad to meet with @USAmbKyiv

Bridget Brink. Briefed the Ambassador about ongoing and planned reforms in the defence sector, including the launch of transparent procurement procedures, localization of defence production in Ukraine. We discussed in detail our plans for bilateral cooperation, as well as areas and ways of further US assistance to Ukraine.

And whenever I can I highlight all the foreign aid that goes from the US, the EU, and NATO to Ukraine. What we don’t normally pay attention to is what those numbers look like comparatively. Both in terms of what has been provided to Ukraine and in comparison between Ukraine and Russia. Here’s the tail of that tape.

Struggle for resources
When Ukrainians say that we need more weapons, the West often thinks that it is a sign of ingratitude.
In fact, Ukrainians are grateful, but there is another side – how many weapons your enemy supplies to the front.
This thread will explore this topic 1/ pic.twitter.com/C6ZF0Ax8FL

— Volodymyr Dacenko (@Volodymyr_D_) November 13, 2023

Here’s the full graphic:

Graphic of comparative Ukrainian Vs Russian military equipment by Volodymyr Dacenko

Here’s the rest of the thread from the Thread Reader App:

2/ Russia
Many people look down on the Russian army after its defeats in Ukraine in the first year of the war.
But the Russian doctrine is based on the fact that Russia is able to withstand heavy defeats and incredible losses, but not to give up its political goals. 
3/ Ru is still a significant power, if not in terms of the quality of weapons, but in terms of their quantity.
Since the beginning of the war, Ru has removed approximately 6,000 howitzers from its storage facilities.

4/ This number allowed Russia to compensate for the huge losses from the HIMARS counter-battery and the wear of the barrels due to the frantic pace of fire.
No other country could compensate for such losses. 
5/ Russia also removed approximately 1,000 self-propelled guns and 500 MLRS from their warehouses. In total, this is 7.5 times greater than the volume of artillery supplied by the West. And even so, Russia does not have an advantage in artillery now

6/ The supply of Russian artillery is running out. After all, Russia has probably removed most of the relatively modern artillery systems from storage.
Image
7/ Restoration of tanks, armored vehicles and self-propelled guns is somewhat more difficult, because it requires restoration of engines, control systems and other complex components.
According to media estimates, Russia supplies up to 100 tanks to the front every month. 
8/ Ru planned to reach the rate of 130 tanks per month, but faced technical problems. At the beginning of the year, it became known that Ru restored three times less T-62 tanks than planned. Probably because of this, the Ru had to get the “Stalin’s tank” T-54/55 to light. 
9/ Russia is not limited in the resource of tanks and armored vehicles, because it has a lot of them in warehouses. But Ru is limited in the possibility of their restoration. Therefore, it is not beneficial for Russia to increase the dynamics of the war. 
10/ Putin needs the war to be slow and long, so that he can wait for the West to tire of supporting Ukraine and achieve his goals – to approve the occupation of the south and east of Ukraine and prepare for new wars. 
11/ Now about supply to Ukraine:
In general, we see that the West’s efforts to supply heavy weapons were significantly greater in the first year and peaked in January-February 2023.Image
12/ The further supply of weapons to Ukraine faced two main problems:
– lack of a clear strategy for supporting Ukraine after the start of the counteroffensive;
– blocking of funding due to political processes within countries. 
13The planning of support for Ua was based on the expectations of the West that the counteroffensive would become a certain starting point, after which the situation would change fundamentally and the war would either finally come to a stalemate, or Ru would lose its perspective 
14/ But after the start of the counteroffensive, a large number of unpredictable factors intervened in the situation.
1. The defense lines of the Russian army turned out to be much stronger than expected. This made the counterattack long and slow. 
15/ 2. North Korea began direct supplies of ammunition to the Russian Federation on a large scale, thereby postponing the collapse of Russian artillery.
3. The Armed Forces continue to inflict huge losses on Russia in active defense in the east. 
16/ After all, both sides still have the resources to continue the war, and its fate is as uncertain as it was a year ago.
Globally, the counteroffensive, at least not yet, has not brought fundamental change, and the West was clearly not ready for it. 
17/ When Zaluzhny talks about the “stalemate situation”, he is not talking about hopelessness, he is talking about the fact that changes are necessary. 
18/ A few important aspects:
1) Ukraine loses less equipment and Western equipment is more efficient. In general, the loss ratio is about 1/3. Therefore, it is not necessary to estimate the numbers in a straight line. 
19/ 2) The lack of one type of weapon can be compensated by other possibilities (for example, deep strikes, you can exhaust logistics, without which military equipment is not effective). 
20/ 3) Air supremacy remains Russia’s main advantage, which limits ground operations. Ukraine’s advantage in long-range artillery, on the other hand, compensates for the smaller number of weapons and limits the actions of the Russian army. 
21/ 4) Defense systems are becoming more and more effective. Minefields, FPV, ATM, etc. have become a significant factor that complicates the offensive (but does not make it impossible, if the conditions are there). 
22/ Obviously, Ukraine needs additional capabilities in addition to heavy weapons, as General Zaluzhnyi says. This is the ability to exhaust Russian logistics, counter Russian bombers and helicopters, counter enemy drones, etc. 
23/ Power parity is not hopeless, but it requires more effort. Ukrainians understand that in the future, Western partners will have to make greater sacrifices. But without this sacrifice, we will not defeat this threat to democracy that is gradually spreading around the world. 
24/ So when we say we need more guns, it doesn’t mean we’re ungrateful.
Thank you for everything you have done and will do again! 

Dacenko’s assessment shows three very important thing. The first is no matter how much Russian military equipment and Russian troops destroyed by the Ukrainians, Russia still has deep reserves. They may not be of high quality, but they exist in quantity. The second is that no matter how much we think the US, the EU, and NATO has provided, it is but a tiny fraction of what we have in our stocks. Third, from reporting over the past 21 months, a lot of that reserve in the EU is inoperable. Yes, Dacenko’s graphic shows that about 270 Leopard tanks of both the 1A and 2A packages have been provided. But there’s a couple of thousand more that we know are sitting in warehouses, depots, and garages inoperable. That’s why it took so long to send the bulk of the Leopard 1As; they had to be refit and repaired. Even if the EU and NATO states wanted to send more, they can’t because what they have in stock aren’t battle ready. This is a problem not just for Ukraine, but for NATO. Similarly we have approximately 5,500 Abrams. We’ve sent 31. I’m not suggesting we empty out the armored divisions and I recognize this might not be the best tanks for use in Ukraine right now, but just 31? That’s the best we could do?

I know a lot of you think I sound like a broken record, but at every turn we’ve dribbled out the aid to Ukraine to slowly and in too small amounts. Then we pat ourselves on the back that by doing so we’ve attrited Russia’s army without spilling a single drop of American blood and for pennies on the dollar. But the real tail of the tape here is we’ve given Ukraine enough so that Ukraine won’t lose, but also so it is going to be very difficult for them to win. We can and should do better. We must do better.

Here’s Tatiana Stanovaya’s assessment of where things stand in the war for Ukraine:

Recently, Western media has been flooded with articles about a seemingly losing Ukraine. Some call for tougher strategies against Russia and in support of Ukraine, while others simply express pessimism and despondency. Frankly, the mood is becoming increasingly gloomy by the day.…

— Tatiana Stanovaya (@Stanovaya) November 13, 2023

Recently, Western media has been flooded with articles about a seemingly losing Ukraine. Some call for tougher strategies against Russia and in support of Ukraine, while others simply express pessimism and despondency. Frankly, the mood is becoming increasingly gloomy by the day. Simultaneously, there is talk that Putin is fortunate, with time on his side, unfolding exactly as he planned. All of this is quite understandable, but overly opportunistic.

In reality, the situation isn’t so joyful for Russia in the long term either.

1️⃣ First, it’s highly improbable that Putin’s expectations of Ukraine’s capitulation or the fall of its regime will be met. Time is not infinite for him either. He genuinely believes that Kyiv is doomed, but he cannot afford to wait years. Tactically, he may be winning, but strategically, his plan is also doomed: Kyiv will not capitulate under Russian conditions (for Putin, it’s not just a question of territory, but a matter of Ukraine’s future).

2️⃣ Second, no matter how much the West tires of Ukraine or how the dynamics change in Western political circles, it’s hard to envision the emergence of a viable political force that would advocate normalizing relations with Russia. Figures like Trump won’t side with Russia, though Moscow would find their rise convenient. Putin’s hope that a “pragmatic” and nationally oriented West will prevail and life will normalize is also unlikely to materialize. And even those who now push for peace talks with Moscow will be disappointed because Putin wants much more than peace – he wants a Ukraine that is friendly to Russia. Thus Russia, too, is doomed to live in a consistently hostile environment.

3️⃣ Finally, the war is undeniably draining Russia. Yes, it could last a long time, but at a colossal cost. Putin’s regime will slowly transform, society is changing too (generational shifts are inevitable), Putin himself isn’t immortal, and the elites will gradually play a more significant role. Even if Russia becomes more aggressive and hawkish in form, it might, over the years, become more pragmatic, less fixated on the messianic “rescue of the Ukrainian people,” as Putin does.

Considering all this, Ukraine and the West need to understand that they must also be patient and prepare for a long war. This is the reality. And it doesn’t necessarily mean that Putin will be victorious.

Avdiivka:

Tatarigami has a new assessment regarding Avdiivka and its strategic importance, which I know is a recurring topic of discussion in the comments. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:

BBC published an article in Russian titled "Does it make sense for Ukraine to fight for Avdiivka?" In this article, several experts argue that Avdiivka lacks military significance. I disagree with this assessment, finding it misleading. Here's why. 🧵Thread:

1/ pic.twitter.com/AyNb93DoBz

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) November 15, 2023

2/ While I agree that the assault on Avdiivka likely has political reasons, as I discussed on the day the assault started, focusing solely on political aspects is not only inaccurate but also dangerous.
3/ The article states, “Most experts agree that it has exclusively political, not military, significance for the Kremlin.”

I strongly disagree with it – Avdiivka has played a key military role in Donetsk since 2014.

4/ On this map, I’ve marked potential routes and opportunities that could arise for russian forces in the event of Avdiivka falling. While it’s not an exact representation, it provides a general idea of the range of opportunities that may open up for Russian forces to advanceImage
5/ Avdiivka plays a key role in both defensive and offensive operations. Avdiivka denies Russian forces operational space and protects the flanks of logistical hubs.
6/ While it’s accurate that Avdiivka may not be used as a foothold to assault Donetsk in the near future if an opportunity arises, Avdiivka will play a key role in successfully entering Donetsk. This essentially revisits the 2014 scenario with the potential for different outcomes
7/ I agree with the analysts in this article emphasizing that Ukraine doesn’t need a second Bakhmut, especially in its late stage. Holding territory for political rather than operational necessity, when encirclement becomes imminent, can lead to avoidable losses.
8/ Avdiivka’s military significance should not be dismissed since it serves as a barrier preventing Russian forces from entering the operational space towards Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Kostiantynivka, crucial nodes in Donetsk oblast.Image
9/ The Russians underestimated Ukrainian forces in this attack, necessitating resource diversion from elsewhere for limited advances. Although immediate exploitation is doubtful, they can continue to expand by reallocating forces from other areas, replaced by newly formed units
10/ If you find this thread useful, I kindly request you to like, follow, and share the first message in the thread.
My team is working on a big investigation thanks to the support received through Buy Me A Coffee – we always need your help and support.

Russian serviceman showing what's left of the "Msta-S" SPG system destroyed near Avdiivka around 21 October. pic.twitter.com/xnAs9ujGvI

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) November 15, 2023

Promotional video celebrating 1st anniversary of the 47th Motor Rifle Brigade. In August, they raised the flag over Robotyne, and today they're defending Avdiivka from the occupiers.https://t.co/vhSmWzOKtq pic.twitter.com/VtllCtzbR5

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) November 15, 2023

Klischiivka:

Russian troops have been trying to enter Klishchiivka for weeks but it all ends in a way similar to this footage. They are getting blown up by mines, ATGMs or artillery.

Source: https://t.co/iyhcqSpCJx#Ukraine #Bakhmut #Donetsk pic.twitter.com/X0ijGXFWVd

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) November 15, 2023

Kyiv to Irpin:

Remember this ill-fated bridge between Kyiv and Irpin?
They have built it back. Works have almost been completed, and they let the traffic in and out.
I've just driven over it, and there was an incredible feeling.
As if peacetime got back for a moment. pic.twitter.com/QRdGzYoB5l

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) November 15, 2023

Melitopol:

It actually says: “Let’s cleanse ourselves from imposed Ukrainian nazism.” Ethnic cleansing as official policy. https://t.co/GKJ15BojHO

— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) November 15, 2023

Additional context: this Russian ad reads "Are you changing your passport? Change your last name too! Let's cleanse ourselves of imposed Ukrainian Nazism!"

Russian genocidal policies in action: pic.twitter.com/RiHuYjjP6G

— Alexander Kokcharov (@alex_kokcharov) November 15, 2023

Selydove, Donetsk Oblast:

Last night, Russia carried out a missile strike against a multi-story residential building in Selydove, Donetsk Oblast, less than 25km from the frontline, and killed a civilian woman. pic.twitter.com/pfjJVKBaEu

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) November 15, 2023

Kharkiv and most likely other parts of Ukraine as well:

Russia's new tactics: over the last 10 days, there have been 5 air raids, each lasting 2+ hours, with the longest one lasting 3 hours and 30 minutes. Life pauses: schools and kindergartens head to bomb shelters, metro halts river crossings, and malls close. Long air sirens from… pic.twitter.com/VCJLQlYWz0

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) November 15, 2023

Russia’s new tactics: over the last 10 days, there have been 5 air raids, each lasting 2+ hours, with the longest one lasting 3 hours and 30 minutes. Life pauses: schools and kindergartens head to bomb shelters, metro halts river crossings, and malls close. Long air sirens from MIG planes with Kinzhal missiles keep everyone on exhausting alert, straining Ukrainian economy.

Teacher Natalya Omelchuk and her class tried going to the museum for two weeks. Today, they came again, but instead of the museum, they head to a place with a bomb shelter.

The Starlink Snowflake, who spent part of a day retweeting and supporting antisemites and neo-NAZIs and tweeting renewed attacks against the Anti-Defamation League, has thoughts on General Zaluzhnyi and President Zelenskyy:

Yes, fighting to keep Russians out of your country costs lives, but nothing compared to what happens once you're occupied by them.

Just ask Kherson, Mariupol, Bucha, Irpin, Izyum..mass graves, torture..

Or Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Czech, Poland, Hungary..mass graves torture

— Jay in Kyiv (@JayinKyiv) November 15, 2023

Obligatory:

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos tonight, so here’s some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.

Say cheese!

Photo for military ID.

📷: 22nd Mechanized Brigade pic.twitter.com/QiCtCck7ZQ

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 15, 2023

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 630: A Bit of PerspectivePost + Comments (9)

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