Actively progressing with the United States on joint arms production – address by the President of Ukraine

17 November 2023 – 19:14

I wish you good health, dear Ukrainians!

Today, I held a Supreme Commander-in-Chief’s Staff meeting, with a detailed report from the Minister of Defense on the upcoming year, the provision of defense forces. Every direction and aspect – ammunition, weapons, equipment, and accoutrements. What is currently in short supply and what objectively needs to be increased, taking into account plans of our active actions. The Minister of Strategic Industries reported on our own production of weapons and ammunition – the goal of increasing production is being achieved. This is crucial, and I am grateful to all the workers in our defense industry, as well as our partners who assist. We also discussed the implementation of the Ukrainian missile program, initiated in 2021. Everyone can see that its results are becoming more long-range and favorable for Ukraine each year, and unpleasant for the enemy, as it should be. There will be even more results.

By the way, we are actively progressing with the United States on joint arms production. During my visit to Washington, President Biden and I agreed on specific steps we can take together. This will undoubtedly strengthen both Americans and Ukrainians, as well as our partners. Joint production always enhances capabilities. In recent days, during negotiations involving Andriy Yermak and our government team, we discussed the specifics. In December of this year, a special conference involving Ukrainian and American industries, government officials, and other state actors will take place – everyone involved in organizing our defense. We are preparing a significant event, an extension of the Defense Industries Forum that took place in September. Now, it’s a forum in Washington and corresponding work on armaments in both Ukraine and the United States. I thank the United States – President Biden, his team, and Congress – both parties that support us. I also want to especially acknowledge U.S. defense companies and partners in Europe – all those who genuinely fill the concept of defending freedom with substance. During these times, we all need to be as effective as possible so that the lifetime of our children and grandchildren is not stolen by war.

Today, there is also good news regarding defense packages for our soldiers – Finland has made a decision on a new package. Thank you for this. We have already received 20 support packages from Finland. All of them strengthen not only us but the entire eastern flank of Europe. Because when Ukraine is strong and independent, all of Europe can feel protected from Russian aggression.

Important reports were presented at the Staff meeting regarding the situation on specific frontlines: Donetsk, Kharkiv, the southern directions. Reports were given by the Commander-in-Chief and Generals Syrsky, Tarnavsky, Moskaliov, and Sodol. I thank every one of our soldiers!

Today, I issued a separate instruction to the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff regarding responding to the carriers of ‘Kinzhals’ that disrupt our country for hours due to air alerts. Our air defense capabilities and overall readiness for missile threats allow us to modernize our response somewhat – without unnecessary interruptions to the country. This is important for millions of our people. I expect corresponding proposals.

And one more thing.

I started today with a special meeting with the Minister of Finance and government officials responsible for the education sector. Many sensitive issues, and millions of Ukrainian students are awaiting answers. This includes resources for scholarships and specific details about innovations in higher education. We also discussed everything necessary to strengthen vocational education in Ukraine. It was all very concrete, just as it should be on Students’ Day. Of course, it would be right that most of what we discussed will be presented by the Minister of Education. Good things. We guarantee scholarships for students and are exploring opportunities to increase them. We will find resources for the reconstruction of universities damaged or destroyed by Russian attacks. Today, I visited one of the Ukrainian universities – Mariupol State University. It has been relocated to Kyiv and is working. Importantly, it preserves faith in Ukraine, in our people, and in the belief that Ukraine will be free – all of Ukraine. I spoke with the students. Thank you for your sincerity and energy. I wish all our Ukrainian students to be able to realize themselves in Ukraine, for Ukraine, absolutely dignified, modern, and beneficial to themselves and the country.

To bring victory in this war, ensure security, and provide as much as possible protection to our people and our state… I thank everyone who fights and works for this. For our people. For our independence.

Glory to Ukraine!

Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy has gone public about the reduction in the supply of artillery shells to Ukraine, telling reporters that deliveries of the munitions have "really slowed down." https://t.co/r78Y3yhxIy

— ABC News (@ABC) November 17, 2023

From ABC News:

In a rare admission, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has gone public about the reduction in the supply of artillery shells to Ukraine, telling reporters that deliveries of the munitions have “really slowed down.”

The 155mm artillery shells are arguably the most important munition for Ukraine in its war with Russia.. Ukraine has always been outmatched by Russia’s superior artillery firepower, however this imbalance, which is key on the battlefield, is set to get worse.

In a briefing on Thursday, Western officials agreed with an estimate, attributed to Ukrainian officials, that Russia currently produces around a million artillery shells a day.

U.S. arms companies are ramping up production. However, according to The Economist, U.S. output of 155 mm shells in 2025 “is likely to be lower than that of Russia in 2024.”

European efforts to try and address the problem also appear to be falling short.

The German Defense Minister earlier this week warned that the European Union would fail to meet its pledge of providing a million rounds to Ukraine by March 2024.

Any further reduction of ammunition supplies to Ukrainian forces would limit Ukrainian troops’ ability to mount offensive operations as well as increase pressure on areas of the frontline where Russia is on the offensive.

Western officials on Thursday also conceded they were “concerned” about the supply of artillery ammunition to Ukraine. The officials claimed they had “always been concerned,” but it was a change in tone on the topic, compared to previous briefings.

President Zelenskyy, in comments to journalists Thursday said “warehouses are empty” in allied nations which have been supplying Ukraine with the shells.

Israel’s war in Gaza and tensions on its northern border with Lebanon have also put pressure on U.S. stocks, with some supplies of artillery shells, which were designated for Ukraine in recent weeks, being diverted to Israel.

In a reference to the increased pressure on production and supply of the munitions, Zelenskyy said “everyone is fighting” for stockpiles.

It is true that, for months, Ukrainian officials have repeatedly warned that their ability to fire artillery shells has always been way lower than their Russian enemy.

And as the war has dragged on, the supply of 155mm shells to Ukraine inevitably has come under greater pressure, with the U.S. calling on other allies, namely South Korea to help out.

However, Zelenskyy’s warning comes amid the row in Congress over continuing funding for the war in Ukraine.

If the Biden Administration cannot keep military aid flowing to Ukraine, the situation could get a lot worse.

Again, and I’m unfortunately sure that I’ll be back to this topic sooner rather than later, almost two years into Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s genocidal re-invasion and we are still failing. That the US defense industrial base has not been put on a war footing 21 months into this part of the world war we’ve been in for years is both strategic malpractice and unacceptable. At some point it would make sense for the Biden administration to adopt John Wesley’s maxim: “I am always haste, I am never in a hurry.”

When you protect your nation, the global holiday cheer is replaced by hard work in the trenches.

📹: @United24media pic.twitter.com/6bpc3RdMXC

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 17, 2023

Holland:

Grateful to the Dutch government and, personally, DM Kajsa Ollongren @DefensieMin for allocating an additional 2 billion euros ($2.2 billion) in military aid to support Ukraine in 2024. This is substantial assistance package from our Dutch partners. Together, we are stronger!

— Rustem Umerov (@rustem_umerov) November 17, 2023

Finland:

🇫🇮 @DefenceFinland announced 20th package of defence materiel to Ukraine valued EUR 100 million.

Thank you for supporting Ukraine in our fight for freedom.

Together, to victory! 🇺🇦🤝🇫🇮

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 17, 2023

Left bank of the Dnipro, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

Bombarding of Russian TOS-1A Solntsepyok MLRS, BTR and several howitzers. Left bank Kherson region.https://t.co/bUlybigHqZ pic.twitter.com/ZymBc7H3Gs

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 17, 2023

What was rumored and long-awaited is now officially confirmed! AFU have secured several strongholds on the left bank of the Dnipro. Ukrainian Marines reported a series of successful operations in Kherson region, strengthening their position across multiple strongholds 🇺🇦💪🏻

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) November 17, 2023

Kherson Oblast:

Another TOS-1 out. Location unclear, somewhere in the southern direction (Kherson group). Published in 17 Nov in Balu’s channel (Ukrainian serviceman).

What’s the drone used here?https://t.co/zYCYmGqd7O pic.twitter.com/gtuwGxpxC9

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) November 17, 2023

Solodke, Donetsk Oblast:

7 previously undocumented Russian losses shown in a video published by Russians. Solodke, Donetsk region.
2xMT-LB; 1xBMP-1; 1xBMP-1AM; 2xBMP-2; 1xBMP-3.https://t.co/dYwP59oolN pic.twitter.com/02PRGXhZle

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 17, 2023

Svatove:

Strike on several Russian BM-21 Grad MLRS. Luhansk region, Svatove area. https://t.co/4Um0ZjVO9m pic.twitter.com/Iia0HYV1vl

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 17, 2023

Tatarigami has taken a deep dive into Russian rotary wing operations. First tweet from the thread and the rest from the Thread Reader App.

Amid the ongoing debate about the number of operational Ka-52 helicopters on the frontlines, I've analyzed and compiled imagery of bases used for helicopter operations by the Russians. The findings are summarized in this 🧵Thread:

1/ pic.twitter.com/FV0F1tcf3W

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) November 17, 2023

2/ Based on acquired Maxar images from November 1st, the Taganrog airbase hosted at least 4 operational Ka-52 helicopters on its tarmac. The surrounding activity indicates their use, a fact further supported by their absence in earlier shots.

3/ The Buturlinovka Airbase accommodates a minimum of 5 Ka-52 helicopters. Although Helicopter #7 is not distinctly visible in this image, the next image includes a slightly older photo of the same helicopter at the same location for clarity.

4/ Identifying helicopters in high-resolution imagery (0.5 – 1m) can be challenging, but certain distinct characteristics help with recognition: fuselage length, two coaxial rotors, a shorter tail, and a unique frontal shape, among others.

5/ Zernograd airbase, the home of the 16th Army Aviation Brigade, currently houses approximately 8 additional Ka-52 helicopters.

6/ In these calculations, I excluded several Ka-52 helicopters undergoing repairs or maintenance, evident from the missing rotor blades. Additionally, for OPSEC reasons, I didn’t account for 2 more Ka-52 helicopters located at FARP.

7/ The scope of my analysis focuses on the operational Ka-52 helicopters on the frontlines. I didn’t add helicopters located in other regions of Russia, such as Central Russia and the Far East.

8/ With a 90% confidence level and error not exceeding 30%, presented evidence strongly indicates that Russia still maintains operational Ka-52 helicopters.

9/ Both the Ka-52 and numerous Mi-28 helicopters continue to pose a significant threat to Ukrainian forces along the frontline. Their ability to deploy LMUR and Vikhr missiles extends their reach, enabling them to engage targets beyond the range of SHORAD

10/ Moving on to the next base, Rovenki Airbase, traditionally home to a substantial number of helicopters, has recently dispersed its helicopters in response to emerging threats, due to its proximity to the border.

11/ In October and early November, Rovenki Airbase accommodated more than three Ka-52 helicopters. I counted only three Ka-52 helicopters, excluding those with missing blades, as their operational status is hard to determine

12/ Kirovske Airbase in Crimea housed a total of 6 Ka-52 helicopters.

13/ Let’s assume that roughly 30% of the helicopters I’ve identified could be duplicates (the same helicopter at different locations and times), partially or fully inoperable, or mistakenly identified.

14/ Rounding gives us around 8 helicopters. Even assuming 8 were included wrongly, we still have 17 operational helicopters. Therefore, claims suggesting there are no or only a few functional Ka-52s are invalid.

15/ In summary, satellite evidence collectively indicates that Russia currently maintains a fleet of at least 25 operational Ka-52 helicopters, with the actual number likely much higher.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

I’ve listened to all of them a lot of times. I’m so proud of my unbreakable and talented people❤️ pic.twitter.com/2mZmc56rpw

— Patron (@PatronDsns) November 17, 2023

Open thread!