Open Threads

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

Throughout the day, maximum attention was paid to eliminating the consequences of the Russian terrorists’ attack on Odesa, on communities in the region, on Chornomorsk, on our ports. This was perhaps the largest attempt by Russia to inflict pain on Odesa in the entire period of full-scale war. Thanks to the air defense and all our defenders of the sky, the consequences of this strike are still less than they could have been. With each such strike, we appeal to our partners again and again: Ukraine’s sky shield needs to be strengthened.

This attack proves that their target is not only Ukraine, and not only the lives of our people. About a million tons of food is stored in the ports that were attacked today. This is the volume that should have been delivered to consumer countries in Africa and Asia long ago. The port terminal that suffered the most from the Russian terror last night had 60,000 tons of agricultural products stored in it, which were intended to be shipped to China. That is, everyone is affected by this Russian terror. Everyone in the world should be interested in bringing Russia to justice for its terror.

I am grateful to all our warriors who protect our country from such attacks. I am grateful to all the rescuers, medical workers, employees of public utilities, local authorities, and volunteers who help our people overcome the consequences of terror. Odesa, Kherson, Zhytomyr, and Kirovohrad regions. Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv and Donetsk regions. Everywhere where there was shelling, missile and drone strikes. I want to thank each and every person who helps save lives!

This morning, the military, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, other government officials, and the specialized Deputy Head of the Office for Regional Policy reported to me on the conference call. In the communities affected by last night’s strikes, initial repairs have already begun.

Today I held negotiations with the Taoiseach of Ireland, who was on a visit to Ukraine. Ireland is one of our most vigorous partners in Europe. Although the country is neutral, the Irish do not remain neutral to moral challenges. In the face of such aggression, they are clearly on the bright side of history: they are helping us politically, in security issues, economically, and with sanctions. Humanitarian support is very important. Today we have discussed our further joint steps, in particular, those related to the Peace Formula and the Global Peace Summit. I am grateful to Ireland for supporting our position on the grain initiative.

I also met with Samantha Power, head of USAID, the United States Agency for International Development. The day before, she was in Odesa and absolutely understands the importance of our ports for the world’s food security and the Russian threat to global stability. Today we discussed in detail the possibilities of protecting our infrastructure and our global role. And it is very important that USAID is ready to continue working with Ukraine to support economic activity in our country, develop enterprises, and maintain jobs. I am grateful for this support!

And one more thing.

We are already actively preparing for international events scheduled for August and September. In particular, today I held a large meeting on the preparation of the Crimea Platform Summit at the level of state leaders and parliamentary level. We know for sure that the Summit will be meaningful and Crimea will become even closer to returning to the free world, even closer to liberation from occupation. All Ukrainian land and all Ukrainian people must be free.

Glory to all those who fight for Ukraine and freedom!

I thank everyone in the world who helps us!

Glory to Ukraine!

Odesa and Chornomorsk:

Massive Russian night attack on Ukraine:
– 16 Kalibr cruise missiles;
– 8 Kh-22 cruise missiles;
– 6 Onyx cruise missiles from Crimea (presumably caught on video);
– 1 Kh-59 missile;
– 32 Shahed drones.

13 Kalibr missiles, Kh-59 and 23 Shaheds downed. Kh-22 and Onyx missiles… pic.twitter.com/Yh4IHlun6e

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) July 19, 2023

 

Massive Russian night attack on Ukraine:
– 16 Kalibr cruise missiles;
– 8 Kh-22 cruise missiles;
– 6 Onyx cruise missiles from Crimea (presumably caught on video);
– 1 Kh-59 missile;
– 32 Shahed drones.

13 Kalibr missiles, Kh-59 and 23 Shaheds downed. Kh-22 and Onyx missiles targeted infrastructure of the Odesa region.

These photos were taken in the ports of Odesa and Chornomorsk. At night, Russia purposefully attacked grain terminals. The grain infrastructure of international and Ukrainian traders and carriers Kernel, Viterra, CMA CGM Group was damaged.

Is this still not enough to recognize… pic.twitter.com/yTstVHsj4T

— Oleksiy Goncharenko (@GoncharenkoUa) July 19, 2023

Russia destroyed 60,000 tons of grain in the port of Chernomorsk. How will Putin now go to BRIC summit in South Africa, where among others, this grain was shipped? Oh, yes, he won’t go – he should be arrested there on ICC warrant. pic.twitter.com/CeKUOEUQOu

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) July 19, 2023

Ukraine air force said Russia fired cruise missiles & Iranian-made suicide drones at Odesa & nearby Mykolaiv. 37 of 63 missiles & drones were shot down, a lower % than in previous months, which could be due to numerous factors: shorter travel distance, missile type, supplies, etc pic.twitter.com/yVmqjJ8HD3

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) July 19, 2023

Russian occupied Crimea:

Near Kirovske, #Russia|n-occupied #Crimea, south #Ukraine, a missile strike hit a Russian ammunition depot this morning. Detonations at the depot necessitated evacuation of ~2,000 people in nearby 4 villages.

pic.twitter.com/8mH2g5h1UK

— Alexander Kokcharov (@alex_kokcharov) July 19, 2023

At ~4:30am there were strikes on Russian ammunition depot near Stary Krym, Crimea. ~230km from the front line. pic.twitter.com/GZWumRMpMK

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 19, 2023

/3. Ammunition detonation still continues in Stary Krym area https://t.co/u4fznVy3tz pic.twitter.com/nvdgT8Rvdu

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 19, 2023

/5. Google maps view of the targeted area.
(45.0841471, 35.0757810) pic.twitter.com/DmCPwuxc6b

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 19, 2023

This is a good moment to remind everyone about the map of Russian military bases and facilities in Crimea made by our Ukrainian colleagues from @radiosvoboda and @krymrealii. https://t.co/1XvQa8Am5M

— Mark Krutov (@kromark) July 19, 2023

Lviv:

A tiny miracle. On the 11th day after a russian missile attack on Lviv, rescuers discovered a cat under the rubble. Churchill is the name of the cat. Olha, his owner, lost her mother on that terrible day. Only the dog remained by her side. And now she has also found her cat. pic.twitter.com/CTXpRAxDFI

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 18, 2023

Here is a very long and thoughtful thread regarding what is actually happening on the ground with Ukraine’s counteroffensive. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:

New🧵: @konrad_muzyka , @RALee85 , @KofmanMichael,& I spent some time this month visiting the frontlines in Ukraine to gain new insights into the ongoing counteroffensive & the war overall. Here are some general observations. pic.twitter.com/yWzq14Zh9x

— Franz-Stefan Gady (@HoansSolo) July 18, 2023

(Note: More detailed analysis will be coming out by all of us in the coming weeks.)

First off, we spoke to NCOs, officers, a number of brigade commanders (national guard & regular army) in the field plus senior intel & defense officials in Kyiv (alongside @DAlperovitch). 

Counteroffensive:

1.) By and large this is an infantryman’s fight (squad, platoon & company level) supported by artillery along most of the frontline. This has several implications: 1st: Progress is measured by yards/meters and not km/miles given reduced mobility. 

2nd: Mechanized formations are rarely deployed due to lack of enablers for maneuver. This includes insufficient quantities of de-mining equipment, air defenses, ATGMs etc. 

2.) Ukrainian forces have still not mastered combined arms operations at scale. Operations are more sequential than synchronized. This creates various problems for the offense & IMO is the main cause for slow progress. 

3.) 🇺🇦 forces by default have switched to a strategy of attrition relying on sequential fires rather than maneuver. This is the reason why cluster munitions are critical to extend current fire rates into the fall: weakening Russian defenses to a degree that enables maneuver. 

4.) Minefields are a problem as most observers know. They confine maneuver space & slow advances. But much more impactful than the minefields per se on Ukraine’s ability to break through Russian defenses is 🇺🇦s inability to conduct complex combined arms operations at scale. 

Lack of a comprehensive combined arms approach at scale makes Ukrainian forces more vulnerable to Russian ATGMs, artillery etc. while advancing. So it’s not just about equipment. There’s simply no systematic pulling apart of the Russian defensive system that I could observe. 

5.) The character of this offensive will only likely change if there is a more systematic approach to breaking through Russian defenses, perhaps paired with or causing a severe degradation of Russian morale, that will lead to a sudden or gradual collapse of Russian defenses. 

Absent a sudden collapse of Russian defenses, I suspect this will remain a bloody attritional fight with reserve units being fed in incrementally in the coming weeks & months. 

6.) There is limited evidence of a systematic deep battle that methodically degrades Russian C2/munitions. Despite rationing on the Russian side, ammunition is available and Russians appear to have fairly good battlefield ISR coverage. 

Russians also had no need to deploy operational reserves yet to fend off Ukrainian attacks.There is also evidence of reduced impact of HIMARS strikes due to effective Russian countermeasures. (This is important to keep in mind re. any potential tac. impact of delivery of ATACMs.) 

Russian forces, even if severely degraded & lacking ammo, are likely capable of delaying, containing or repulsing individual platoon- or company-sized Ukrainian advances unless these attacks are better coordinated & synchronized along the broader frontline. 

7.) Quality of Russian forces varies. Attrition is hitting them hard but they are defending their positions well, according to Ukrainians we spoke to. They have been quite adaptable at the tactical level and are broadly defending according to Soviet/Russian doctrine. 

8.) Russian artillery rationing is real & happening. Ukraine has established fire superiority in tube artillery while Russia retains superiority in MRLSs in the South. Localized fire superiority in some calibers alone does not suffice, however, to break through Russian defenses. 

9.) An additional influx of weapons systems (e.g., ATACMs, air defense systems, MBTs, IFVs etc.) while important to sustain the war effort, will likely not have a decisive tactical impact without adaptation and more effective integration. 

Ukraine will have to better synchronize & adapt current tactics, without which western equipment will not prove tac. decisive in the long run. This is happening but it is slow work in progress. (Most NATO-style militaries would struggle with this even more than the 🇺🇦s IMO). 

10.) The above is also true for breaching operations. Additional mine clearing equipment is needed & will be helpful (especially man-portable mine-clearing systems) but not decisive without better integration of fire & maneuver at scale. 

(Again, I cannot emphasize enough how difficult this is to pull off in wartime.)

Monocausal explanations for failure (like lack of de-mining equipment) do not reflect reality. E.g., some Ukrainian assaults were stopped by Russian ATGMs even before reaching the 1st 🇷🇺 minefield. 

11.) There is a dearth of artillery barrels that is difficult to address given production rates and delivery timelines. 

12.) So far Ukraine’s approach in this counteroffensive has been first and foremost direct assaults on Russian positions supported by a rudimentary deep battle approach. And no, these direct assaults are not mere probing attacks. 

13.) There is evidence of tactical cyber operations supporting closing of kinetic kill-chains. That is cyber ISR contributing to identifying & tracking targets on the battlefield. Starlink remains absolutely key for Ukrainian C2. 

14.) Quality of Ukrainian officers and NCOs we met appears excellent & morale remains high. However, there are some force quality issues emerging with less able bodied & older men called up for service now. 

15.) The narrative that Ukrainian progress thus far is slow just because of a lack of weapons deliveries and support is monocausal & is not shared by those we spoke to actually fighting & exercising command on the frontline. 

16.) It goes without saying that in a war of attrition, more artillery ammunition & hardware is always needed and needs to be steadily supplied. (Western support of Ukraine certainly should continue as there is still the prospect that the counteroffensive will make gains.) 

But soldiers fighting on the frontline we spoke to are all too aware that lack of progress is often more due to force employment, poor tactics, lack of coordination btw. units, bureaucratic red tape/infighting, Soviet style thinking etc. & …Russians putting up stiff resistance. 

This lines up with some of the informed constructive, though clearly frustrated, criticism provided by the Ukrainian officer who tweets as Tataragami.

Few thoughts on the "frozen conflict" perspective

From my perspective, the concept of a "frozen conflict" can be dangerous, as it masks the underlying reality of a lack of will or resources to continue the fight against russia, effectively admitting defeat in a war of attrition.… pic.twitter.com/8EkPBPldYX

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) July 13, 2023

 

From my perspective, the concept of a “frozen conflict” can be dangerous, as it masks the underlying reality of a lack of will or resources to continue the fight against russia, effectively admitting defeat in a war of attrition. It is concerning that some elites in the Western countries do not perceive this war as a broader confrontation between the West and Russia, but rather as a localized conflict between Ukraine and Russia.

The problem lies in the divergence of perspectives. While some of the Wester elites perceive the conflict as localized, Russia sees it as part of a broader war against NATO and the West. Putin’s explicit declarations of being at war with the West should not be taken lightly or dismissed as mere rhetoric.

Perception often holds more weight than objective reality in shaping decisions. If Russia believes it has successfully expanded its territories and withstood sanctions and pressure from a NATO-trained and supplied Ukrainian army, it will reinforce their imperial beliefs. It will also send ambiguous signals to countries such as Iran, China and North Korea. It may create uncertainty regarding the ability of the West to win a war of attrition.

While some may perceive my viewpoint as an exaggeration, it is important to acknowledge that the perceived weak response of the West during the 2014 Crimea invasion played a significant role in shaping Putin’s confidence in getting away with further annexations.The internal situation in Russia has notably deteriorated, as evidenced by the recent Wagner mutiny. By consistently inflicting military defeats and delivering impactful blows to the russian forces, we have the potential to further destabilize the Russian elites. This could lead to internal collapse, power struggles, and ultimately, a full liberation of Ukraine.

However, any attempt to “freeze” the conflict would inadvertently strengthen Putin’s hold on power and provide Russia with the necessary time to rearm and prepare for future conflicts. The perception of a NATO defeat in the eyes of Russians could become a catalyst for renewed hostilities in the future.

The existence of a frozen conflict poses a significant obstacle for Ukraine’s NATO membership, as one of the requirements is the absence of territorial disputes. While it is theoretically possible to resolve such conflicts, as it was with West and East Germany, concerns persist that certain countries may exploit this requirement to block Ukraine’s accession to NATO due to fears of a real war with Russia.

 

In the past, I wrote about challenges that our troops were facing near Bakhmut. I received criticism from both compatriots and foreign supporters of our country for saying it, but I turned out to be right about it.

Regrettably, we remain in a state of ongoing uncertainty, with…

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) July 16, 2023

That's the problem. F-16 is not some wunderwaffe which will change the course of war. Neither are Bradley's or Leos. I am talking about internal changes and adopting more bottom-up approach rather than top-down approach.

We have more Soviet mindset now than we did in 2022

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) July 16, 2023

Unless we do something radically different, including serious changes inside of Ukraine, we won't kick russians out. I hate to say it, but that's the reality

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) July 16, 2023

The difference is that I don’t care about “progress” by measuring minefield length or some silly map arrows, I care about number of people being KIA and WIA to achieve certain goals. You can absolutely have operational success and lose strategically if you overspend resources

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) July 17, 2023

The recent counteroffensive in the Torske-Kupyansk axis has come as a surprise to many. However, I had previously written about their preparations for this counteroffensive almost a month ago.

Currently, the Russians are conducting extensive training of new motorized units in… https://t.co/YGgo48DW8e

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) July 17, 2023

The recent counteroffensive in the Torske-Kupyansk axis has come as a surprise to many. However, I had previously written about their preparations for this counteroffensive almost a month ago.

Currently, the Russians are conducting extensive training of new motorized units in the Soutern military district. In order to strengthen our troops, we will need additional weaponry and improve training conditions

I don’t mean to doom, but it is important for analysts, politicians and military observers to take these warnings seriously. By doing so, we can effectively prioritize obtaining the necessary armament for Ukraine, as well as exert pressure on our own MoD to address internal issues.

That’s enough for tonight.

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