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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

fuckem (in honor of the late great efgoldman)

“Facilitate” is an active verb, not a weasel word.

… gradually, and then suddenly.

Republican speaker of the house Mike Johnson is the bland and smiling face of evil.

This blog will pay for itself.

Never give a known liar the benefit of the doubt.

Fuck these fucking interesting times.

The party of Reagan has become the party of Putin.

Quote tweet friends, screenshot enemies.

We do not need to pander to people who do not like what we stand for.

If you don’t believe freedom is for everybody, then the thing you love isn’t freedom, it is privilege.

Anyone who bans teaching American history has no right to shape America’s future.

“Everybody’s entitled to be an idiot.”

It’s pointless to bring up problems that can only be solved with a time machine.

Perhaps you mistook them for somebody who gives a damn.

Trump should be leading, not lying.

Republicans want to make it harder to vote and easier for them to cheat.

They don’t have outfits that big. nor codpieces that small.

A thin legal pretext to veneer over their personal religious and political desires.

When you’re in more danger from the IDF than from Russian shelling, that’s really bad.

How any woman could possibly vote for this smug smarmy piece of misogynistic crap is beyond understanding.

The world has changed, and neither one recognizes it.

Giving in to doom is how we fail to fight for ourselves & one another.

Technically true, but collectively nonsense

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Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

Open Threads

You are here: Home / Archives for Open Threads

Late Late Saturday Night Open Thread: Too Soon?…

by Anne Laurie|  October 29, 20232:44 am| 55 Comments

This post is in: 2024 Primaries, Gun Issues, Open Threads, Midnight Confessions

Trump supporters get their wish, Pence is suspended. https://t.co/X63gJPKbJi

— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) October 28, 2023

C.R.E.A.M…

Pence might not have qualified for the next GOP debate. https://t.co/jOkgwoNvtU

— David Karol (@DKarol) October 28, 2023


 
Trigger warning: Snark to keep from sobbing:

show full post on front page

BREAKING: Maine shooting suspect Robert Card has been found dead of a self-inflicted gunshot wound, multiple law enforcement sources tell ABC News.

Read more: https://t.co/TiNASO34BR pic.twitter.com/kunog6uK7E

— ABC News (@ABC) October 28, 2023

The most basic and popular gun control laws would have prevented this guy from taking down the shooter – really makes you think

— yenwoda (@yenwoda) October 28, 2023

Late Late Saturday Night Open Thread: Too Soon?…Post + Comments (55)

Saturday Night Open Thread

by John Cole|  October 28, 20238:43 pm| 121 Comments

This post is in: John Cole Presents "This Fucking Old House", Open Threads

So apparently Mike Pence has seen a sign from God or read a poll or ran out of money or some combination of all three and has decided to drop out of the race:

Former Vice President Mike Pence, who spent four years dutifully serving President Donald J. Trump but refused to carry out Mr. Trump’s demand that he block the 2020 election results, ended his presidential bid on Saturday, with a final appeal for his party to return to conservative principles and resist the “siren song of populism.”

Whatthefuckever. Later.

I mean there are so many reasons to hate that fucking guy that’s it is too hard to list, but one thing that infuriates me about him is he could just fuck off somewhere for the rest of his life carefree and in peace. I have no idea what his net worth is, but I do not as a former Vice President, he gets 240k per year for life. That’s a lot of money for Indiana. Not to mention some group of jackasses will always fly him wherever to give a speech and get paid 50k.

Do you know what I would do to have an opportunity like that? If my boss came to me and said “heya we need you to permanently fuck off out of here but we’re gonna pay you 235k a year no questions” there are like maybe a dozen people who would ever hear from me again and that number would drop to an even ten when my parents die. And they don’t even mean like that- totally out of public site. They mean they don’t want him in this one specific job. And he can’t take the fucking hint.

Until now.

And while I am bitching, you know what really pisses me off and there’s no fucking reason for it? Deli meats and cheeses being thrown in plastic reusable bags and then having them tape the price tag in such a way that you invariably rip the side of the bag trying to open it, completely destroying the idea of a resealable plastic bag. Just use put the meats and cheeses in wax paper covered by butcher paper and be done with it. Stop with the single use plastic when you aren’t even getting one single use out of it.

God damnit.

Saturday Night Open ThreadPost + Comments (121)

War for Ukraine Day 612: A Brief Saturday Night Update

by Adam L Silverman|  October 28, 20238:16 pm| 24 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Graphic by NEIVANMADE of a Russian bomb with a "Z" symbol on it crashing through the roof of the Ukrainian Postal Service delivery hub. "Everyone Is a Target" and "Stop Russia" are written in the space between the destroyed roof and the fins of the bomb.

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

A quick housekeeping note in regard to a point of contention from my earlier post: To clarify, the simple child, as I explained in describing its role in the ritual, is actually a complement. In the recounting of the four sons it is the simple child – the one that knows they need to learn – that begins the actual process of learning, of becoming enlightened on the topic. The wise son (thinks he) already has all the answers and therefore needs to learn nothing. The wicked son is contrary for the sake of contrarianism. The son who is to young to even formulate a question is just that. It is the simple son – the one that knows that he does not know and needs to learn – that allows for the tale of the Exodus and the Passover to properly be recounted and for its true meaning to be learned.

President Zelenskyy made to addresses today. The first was to the implementation of the peace process forum in Malta. The video isbelow, English transcript after the jump. This is a bit different, President Zelenskyy is speaking in English with Ukrainian subtitles.

show full post on front page

Our joint efforts are laying a new global tradition of unity helping us learn how to end all wars – the speech of the President of Ukraine at the third meeting of advisors on the implementation of the Peace Formula in Malta

28 October 2023 – 18:26

Dear ladies and gentlemen!

Dear co-authors and co-workers of peace!

All nations on earth have gone through war. Men and women who returned from battles and did not forget what they had gone-through until their last breath… Children who were maimed by war… Families who were left with only pain and ashes and gravestones instead of their loved-ones.

There is no place in the world that has not seen the human blood shed in battles.

It is said in different languages that the history of mankind is the history of wars. But I want us all to be able to say one day that from now on, the history of people is a history of peace only. We see this aspiration in many sacred books. And most hearts respond to this. We see this aspiration stipulated in the international law and in the UN Charter. But does the UN Charter work?

Here in Ukraine, and in the Middle East, and in African countries, the answer to this question is the cries of mothers burying their sons and daughters killed in wars, and the despair of children orphaned by wars…

We can and must give a different answer. The world has seen too much blood.

Last year, I proposed a Peace Formula. 10 points that cover all aspects of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and are based on the principles of the UN Charter and the UN General Assembly resolutions approved by the world. Over the year, our Peace Formula has gradually become global – because all of you have supported it or at least shown an active interest in working on it. This Formula has truly become a common one.

What are the main things the Peace Formula can do? Very important things.

First, the Peace Formula ensures the full force of the UN Charter to stop the aggression against our country and eliminate all its consequences, and thus can later become a model when the full power of international law can prevent other aggressions. Secondly, the Peace Formula enables each country to become a leader in its part and of its kind to restore peace and play an independent role in making peace.

And the third, our joint efforts are laying the foundation for a new global tradition of unity – when helping one country end a war, it helps us learn how to end all wars.

There are no two wars alike, but the Peace Formula can and should be universal. The plan for its implementation needs to be joint – to reflect not a particular national position, but the position of people, of all mankind. We shall prepare a joint action plan and then submit it to the Global Peace Summit – at the level of leaders – to approve and implement it for the sake of peace, for the sake of the protection of every nation from wars. And let this result be our common legacy for humanity!

And I am grateful to every nation and international organization represented here in Malta. In total, almost 70 global actors have already joined the Peace Formula process. I thank everyone!

I am grateful to Malta, to the Government of Malta and every Maltese for hosting this Summit. I am grateful to Denmark for the first meeting in this format – in Copenhagen. I am grateful to Saudi Arabia and Jeddah for developing this format. I am grateful to all the leaders who addressed the participants of the meeting, either personally or by sending messages… Mr. President Niinistö of Finland, Mr. President Ramaphosa of South Africa, Mr. Prime Minister Kishida of Japan, Mr. Prime Minister Denkov of Bulgaria, Cardinal Parolin of the Vatican and Grands Chancellor Montecupo.

I would like to specifically mention the international institutions that supported the Peace Formula – the UN, the Council of Europe, the European Commission, the European Council and the European Parliament, which, by the way, is headed by a Maltese woman, Roberta Metsola, a defender of international law and a brave person, who was among the first to visit Ukraine after the start of full-scale aggression and has consistently helped to defend lives. Thank you all who works for peace!

I wish you a fruitful summit!

Слава Україні!

And here is his daily address. Video below, followed by the English transcript.

Our Peace Formula gradually, step by step, is becoming global – address by the President of Ukraine

28 October 2023 – 20:31

I wish you all good health, dear Ukrainians!

Today is the first day of the summit in Malta – a meeting of advisors and diplomatic representatives regarding our Peace Formula, which gradually, step by step, is becoming global.

Sixty six countries are represented at the summit, and it is a good result. All continents are represented. Many countries, different political traditions. I thank all the leaders and countries that have already supported our common vision for peace. And there is potential to expand the representation of states. The points of our Formula are created in such a way that everyone in the world who truly values international law can express themselves and their values and support global efforts against aggression.

Right now at the Malta summit, work is underway on five of the ten points of the Formula. These are “Radiation and nuclear safety,” “Food security,” “Energy security,” “Release of all prisoners and deported persons,” and “Restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and the world order.” For each point of the Formula, groups of states, focusing on implementation, have been created. The work on the Formula is led by Andriy Yermak, with teams from the Office of the President, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, government officials, and representatives of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. I am grateful to everyone who adds such diplomatic strength to Ukraine.

Last year, when I first introduced the Formula, the world was still discussing various visions and fairly different approaches to restoring our state border and achieving a fair peace. The global majority is gradually uniting around a common and fair vision reflected in the Peace Formula. Unity of the world is what is truly needed for aggressors to be defeated.

And it is very symbolic that such a strong display of international unity we have today, on October 28, the day when in Ukraine we commemorate the Second World War and the anniversary of the expulsion of the Nazis from our territory. Back then, the Ukrainian people, along with many nations, fought to defeat evil. Unity gave the peoples the necessary strength. Not only to defeat Nazism and punish the Nazis for their crimes against humanity – for the Holocaust, for the destruction of nations, but also to establish an architecture of security and peace that would protect against a new global war. We can see now that the architecture created then did not work. But unity will certainly work effectively. The unity of all who help Ukraine defeat ruscism. And we will defeat it. For sure. And the unity of everyone in the world who works together with us, together with all our partners, to restore the strength of international law and the real weight of the principles and norms of the UN Charter.

The world is not a place for aggression. Humanity will come to this understanding. This is the only way to protect life.

And one more thing.

Today, I want to particularly commend the Ukrainian border guards. There will come a time – we are doing everything to bring it closer – when the Ukrainian border guards will work peacefully on all sections of our sovereign state border. Right now, many of them, along with all the defense and security forces, are fighting on the front lines to bring the time of peace closer for Ukraine. I thank the entire personnel of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine. And special gratitude from us deserve… The warriors of the Kramatorsk Border Guard Unit, especially Senior Sergeant Roman Malysh and Major Vadym Kostenko. They are fighting near Bahmut. Thank you for your strength!

Also in Donetsk region, soldiers from the Kharkiv Border Guard Unit are performing their tasks – Senior Soldier Oleksandr Kovalenko and Senior Lieutenant Serhiy Sydorsky. Thank you, warriors!

The Lyman direction, the Mohyliv-Podilsky Border Guard Unit, Senior Sergeant Oleksandr Leus. Thank you for your courage!

Kupiansk direction, the ‘Steel Border’ brigade – Sergeants Anatoliy Pavlovsky, Valeriy Pokrytiuk, Mykola Bilyk, and Senior Sergeant Maksym Bazarov. Thank you, warriors, for destroying Russian equipment and artillery!

Glory to all who fight and work for our state and the liberation of all of Ukraine from the occupiers! Thank you to everyone around the world who is helping!

Glory to Ukraine!

Avdiivka:

Just a quick note here, there’s a lot more imagery coming out of Avdiivka. A good chunk of it is somewhere between grim to exceedingly disturbing. I’m being selective about not posting those images or videos.

Avdiivka.
The hellscape of Russian liberation. pic.twitter.com/lyFL7omzL1

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) October 28, 2023

Avdiivka.. 😞 pic.twitter.com/3kn7onTvjn

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) October 28, 2023

Avdiivka killing fields..

"The Russian losses in the Avdiivka area are about 4 thousand in personnel," Minister of Defense Umerov said during a telephone conversation with US secretary of defense Lloyd Austin. pic.twitter.com/Nd8v4X9rMO

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) October 28, 2023

“These are the traps the occupiers set at night on the positions of the border guards near Avdiivka. The fragmentation mine was detected and neutralized in time.” pic.twitter.com/oot5YFCEwd

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) October 28, 2023

This Russian advance west of Krasnohorivka and near Avdiivka tried to breach Ukrainian lines, but when Ukrainian artillery opened fire, chaos erupted and the crews and infantry abandoned their vehicles in droves. In the open entire Russian platoons got hit. At least two BTR got… pic.twitter.com/ct7jmbof0H

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) October 28, 2023

AVDIIVKA AXIS /2030 UTC 28 OCT/ Despite heavy and increasing losses, RU renewed unsuccessful attacks in the vicinities of Keramik, Avdiivka, Stepove, Tonenke, & Opytne.
UKR forces broke up more than ten attacks in the Avdiivka area of operations, inflicting losses of at… pic.twitter.com/EJMzSfU0od

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) October 28, 2023

AVDIIVKA AXIS /2030 UTC 28 OCT/ Despite heavy and increasing losses, RU renewed unsuccessful attacks in the vicinities of Keramik, Avdiivka, Stepove, Tonenke, & Opytne.
UKR forces broke up more than ten attacks in the Avdiivka area of operations, inflicting losses of at least 9 main battle tanks, 8 Infantry fighting vehicles, 6 artillery systems and 400 Russian troops killed in action.

Michael Clarke of the Royal United Services Institute has a column on what he thinks will be Russia’s winter offensive at The Sunday Times:

It has been a good three weeks for President Putin in Ukraine. A lot has been happening on the ground while the eyes of the world have been directed elsewhere. These are tough weeks for Kyiv. They are, as Macer Gifford, one ex-British soldier fighting for Ukraine, put it on social media on Friday, “dark and difficult times”.

In response to Kyiv’s summer offensive, Putin ordered Russian forces more than a month ago to launch local counterattacks at multiple points along the 1,000km front. The Kremlin hoped to wrest back the initiative before winter sets in.

With American weapons and western attention suddenly swinging towards the Middle East, Russia has poured more men and equipment into some ferocious assaults in northeast Donbas, towards Kupiansk; in southeast Donbas, at Avdiivka; and in Zaporizhzhia, north of Tokmak, to halt Ukrainian progress southwards.

What’s more, last week Moscow seemed to be digging into the stockpile of missiles it has been conserving. It looks as if Russia’s winter air offensive is under way, targeting civilian infrastructure for the second year running.

The new Bakhmut

Russia’s renewed attack at Avdiivka, which began on the weekend of October 7, is particularly significant. The Russians have diverted scarce resources to try, yet again, to surround the city, bringing in about six brigades and a great deal of air power and artillery from other units, bombarding the two Ukrainian brigades holding the city. So far, Ukrainian forces have defended the town fiercely and the Russians have not completed an encirclement — though they will keep trying.

Avdiivka is becoming another Bakhmut. Except that Bakhmut had no real strategic importance. It was a symbol the Wagner mercenaries wanted to create for themselves. But Avdiivka does have genuine strategic value: it is on a key route into the city of Donetsk, as close to the airport as it is to the northern suburbs of the city.

The road system makes Avdiivka the gateway to southern Donbas. The Ukrainians have held it against Russian pressure since last year. It is Kyiv’s route to victory in that sector. If they lose Avdiivka now, they will be locked out of the south, and most of what they have achieved in the Donbas further north will count for little. Ukraine’s 1st Tank Brigade has been brought in to defend Avdiivka, while parts of the hard-fighting 47th Mechanised Brigade have been pulled out of the main southerly thrust from Zaporizhzhia and sent east to help defend the city. Fierce battles have been going on for control of the coke and chemicals plant on Avdiivka’s northern flank and the sand quarry at the village of Opytne on the southern flank. These two miserable industrial sites really matter.

Risk of stalemate

No wonder Kyiv appears to be deeply worried. According to rumours among security sources in Ukraine, the military commander Valery Zaluzhny argues that the Ukrainian offensive is almost over, that they must hold what they have got and prepare for operations next year. But President Zelensky does not agree, or will not admit it, because of the perception in the West that his war for Ukraine’s survival seems to have reached a stalemate. He knows that western patience is limited for his maximalist demands that Ukraine must recover all territory invaded by Russia since 2014, and Kyiv is deeply frustrated not to show more progress in its much-vaunted summer offensive. Kyiv well understands the political impact in the West of any appearance of stalemate. In truth, the events of the summer are both better and worse than that, but Ukrainian leaders are far from certain that western politicians or their public will grasp that.

Ukraine’s situation is better than stalemate because they are inflicting heavy losses on Russian forces in their recent attacks. In ten days from October 10, Russia’s visually verified vehicle losses in Avdiivka were 109 — comprising tanks, fighting vehicles and support units, more than a full brigade’s worth. In the past week its losses have not diminished, and Russian personnel losses are running at several hundred a day. The Russians are still operating human-wave attacks with their convicts or inexperienced troops.

Ukraine is also inflicting heavy losses south of Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia region, where Ukraine has been trying to break through to Tokmak and open the route to the coast, splitting Russian forces in two. That now looks unlikely, but the Russians have used up their reserves in holding on north of Tokmak. They are certainly stretched and Kyiv may still be hoping that Russian defences will prove brittle in the rear areas if only they can break through more of the forward defence lines. Ukraine has also been very successful in degrading Russian forces in the rear areas with its western-supplied “deep-strike” precision missiles and artillery. They have created conditions that will make it difficult for Russian forces to settle safely into winter quarters.

War of attrition: the toughest test

That also makes the current situation worse than a stalemate for the Ukrainians: this is now a war of attrition, of the sort western powers have not seen since the world wars of the last century. Wars of attrition are ultimately won by the side that can best gear up its industries and apply its productive capacity directly to the battlefield — from high-tech cyber systems down to bullets, boots and “meals ready to eat”.

The Russians can — eventually — do this for themselves. The Ukrainians can do some of this for themselves and are gearing up for a high-production arms industry in the future. But they can only match Russia in any real war of attrition with western support, particularly next year when Russia will be heavily dependent on what it can squeeze from North Korea, Iran and China.

Western leaders naturally recoil from the idea that the struggle between crude Russian imperialism and liberal democracy can be won only in an attritional way. They want to see Ukrainian forces achieve the sort of battlefield victories western forces enjoyed at times over the past 70 years, such as in the Falklands or the first Gulf War in 1991. But this summer indicates that it is unlikely to go that way. Kyiv is fearful that what happens at a coke and chemical plant or a sand quarry near Avdiivka may convince western observers, when they glance back from the Middle East, that an attritional war has begun. They fear that the West’s nerve will fail and 2024 will become Ukraine’s toughest test yet.

There is more at the link!

Kyiv:

Kyiv tonight and a full moon. pic.twitter.com/Yv517G9rQt

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) October 28, 2023

Kharkiv:

When they talk about resilience, it's this. Valeriy Onul lost a leg near Kherson, and Andriy Ilkiv stepped on a mine in Dementiivka. They didn’t hesitate to return to service in National Police. With prosthetic limbs and unwavering determination, they're back in the field in… pic.twitter.com/bVCQdIXK9T

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) October 28, 2023

When they talk about resilience, it’s this. Valeriy Onul lost a leg near Kherson, and Andriy Ilkiv stepped on a mine in Dementiivka. They didn’t hesitate to return to service in National Police. With prosthetic limbs and unwavering determination, they’re back in the field in Kharkiv.

📷 Ukrinform

Donetsk:

The work of the UAV strike unit “Rarog” of the 24th Brigade of Ukraine. Donetsk region. Video also shows another destroyed Russian T-90M.https://t.co/ltE5oaD54V pic.twitter.com/LXXbPoyTh5

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 28, 2023

Kursk Oblast, Russia:

Russia says a nuclear facility in Kursk was hit by a Ukrainian drone. There is said to be damage to the wall, the state news agency TASS writes.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said: "The Russian Federation calls on all governments to strongly condemn…

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) October 28, 2023

Russia says a nuclear facility in Kursk was hit by a Ukrainian drone. There is said to be damage to the wall, the state news agency TASS writes.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said: “The Russian Federation calls on all governments to strongly condemn Kyiv’s attack on the Kursk nuclear power plant.”

Voice of American News has the details:

Russia accused Ukraine of damaging a nuclear waste storage warehouse in a drone attack on the Kursk nuclear power plant and claimed its air defenses shot down eight Ukrainian drones.

The Russian Foreign Ministry said on Saturday that three explosive-laden drones targeted the power plant on Thursday night, striking its administration building and a facility storing nuclear waste. The press service for the Kursk nuclear power plant confirmed the strike Friday, but told journalists there was no significant damage or casualties and that operations were continuing as normal.

For you fans of Russian military equipment going kaboom, we’ve got several options this evening for your viewing pleasure:

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1718306645090898313

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1718238935418273884

 

If you were wondering about the “OSINT” account that the Starlink Snowflake has been promoting, it turns out it is a Soldier from the state of Georgia who promotes Russian misinformation and agitprop.

https://twitter.com/molfar_agency/status/1716768372472315915

From Molfar:

OSINTdefender is a user of the social network X, which was previously known as Twitter. His posts often contain pro-Russian propaganda or blatant lies. Some of his publications have been a concern for many readers. For example, the story about Ukrainians being accused of a war crime for throwing a grenade at Russians or his praise of Russia’s power and its geopolitical influence,

Elon Musk endorsed this “analyst”. In social network X, misinformation spreads like wildfire. The fact that Musk supports such propagandist accounts is particularly alarming. Analysts at the “Molfar” agency decided to investigate OSINTdefender’s activities. They uncovered his intriguing details, including his name, workplace, and interests. We’ll delve deeper into this shortly.

The account we’ll discuss in this article hints at its intent right in its name, claiming to be an analytical expert specializing in open-source intelligence. Currently, it boasts over 800k followers on Twitter, with its posts reaching millions and garnering thousands of likes. Such platforms often earn users’ trust by presenting themselves as independent analytical sources, unveiling “hidden” truths.

OSINTdefender received an endorsement from Elon Musk. Yet, the content and activity of this account raise eyebrows. Predominantly, its posts support Russia while criticizing Ukraine. The immense influence and trust placed in OSINT practitioners might be exploited in this case.

Simon Anderson owns the “OSINTdefender” account, which he registered in December 2021. On Discord, the administrator of the OSINTdefender server goes by the name Leanandice.

Simon Anderson was born on October 19, 1999. As per his LinkedIn profile, he resided in Georgia, USA, until May 2022. However, according to True People Search, only one Simon Anderson in that state was born in November. In 2015, he worked as a cafe manager in Fayetteville, Georgia. It seems that from 2016 to 2019, he underwent training to become a military officer. In 2019, he joined the US Army, where he served as a radio frequency technician. Still, curiously, his profile mentions the US Air Force, also based in Fayetteville. His LinkedIn indicates that he started studying at Georgia Military College in 2020. In May 2020, he began identifying as an advanced electronics and computer sciences specialist with the US Naval Forces stationed in Great Lakes, Illinois.

There is much, much more at the link including a full breakdown and analysis of what he posts.

Jade McGlynn, PhD has an interesting piece at The Moscow Times on the purposes of Russian propaganda in occupied Ukraine.

Rather than a doubling down on propaganda narratives that hadn’t worked to date, this shift was an admission of defeat. The Kremlin understood that after 2014, it could not simultaneously produce effective propaganda for both Russians and Ukrainians in the occupied regions. So, it decided to create a new two-tier propaganda system.

The first tier, aimed at Russian audiences, comprises statements from collaborator officials, the output of newly established regional outlets of Russian federal media, and official collaborator Telegram channels. They produce narratives similar to those inside Russia itself: that Russia is fighting a special military operation against Western-backed Nazis to liberate Russian speakers from genocide and defend itself from Western attack. In so doing, it has made life better and will inevitably win.

As this narrative is primarily aimed at Russians and their proxies, the tendency to ignore residents’ continued daily experience of war makes sense. It is better not to remind Russians that it used to be Ukraine. It is far better to ignore the war entirely, as they don’t like hearing about it. Explaining that Russia is defending itself makes it easier to mobilize people for what they think is a defensive war.

Propaganda narratives are about creating a reality, or story, out of selectively picked facts in a way that avoids dissonance with what is actually happening. Clearly, these narratives are hard for Ukrainians living in occupied regions to believe. But they can still work for Russians watching at home.

The second tier, comprises newspapers, television and Telegram channels specially created for regions under occupation since 2014. The Russian occupation authorities introduced a free satellite package, “Russian World,” that is sometimes directly imposed on residents by installation brigades overseen by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Chernyshenko. As Ukrainian satellite terminals were dismantled by official edict, some families chose to install the Russian package so their children could watch television.

“Russian World” provides access to 20 Russian channels and to 10 local channels across the regions of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk, Donetsk, and Crimea. These channels are mostly unavailable outside the occupied territories, with the package encrypted so that others in Russia, Ukraine, or abroad cannot find out what they are telling viewers.

While the main topics of the regional channels and the federal Russian television channels are broadly similar, to minimize dissonance, the framing differs. If federally available coverage proclaims Russia’s greatness, the local channels instead seek to demoralize and disorient residents by focusing on Russia’s invincibility and the impossibility of a Ukrainian victory.

The local channel Tavriya, which serves occupied Kherson region, focuses on the theme that Ukraine has become totally unliveable and faces a hopeless future. A recent segment in September 2023 asserted that Ukraine was almost entirely depopulated as everyone had fled from persecution from the Nazi authorities and/or saw no point in defending the country. Silently, a question is posed to viewers: why side with a country that nobody else is defending?

The local channels also feature the destruction of the war, though it is always inflicted by Ukraine, for no reason beyond “insane Kyiv Nazis” seeking to hunt and harm ordinary civilians. The fantastic claims of Ukrainian cruelty use fear to coerce residents into associating with the occupiers. For example, Russia has forcibly issued Russian passports to Ukrainian citizens, even threatening to remove children, access to food provisions, and healthcare for those who refuse to accept one. Now, propagandists tell the occupied territories that Kyiv will treat anyone who took a passport as a collaborator and punish them. On unofficial pro-Moscow Telegram channels, this narrative is bolstered by the argument that Ukraine has betrayed its people in the occupied territories by leaving them to the Russians. Kyiv did not come back for them, and now everything will be just as Russia planned.

If you believe that your country betrayed you, it becomes much easier to justify betraying your country. Especially if you are starting to think that it is pointless to wait for a liberation that will never come. And even if the Ukrainian army does come back, they may see you as a collaborator because you took a Russian passport. Why not just make life for yourself and your family by integrating into the new Russian order? What other options are there?

For those mentally strong enough to live through the traumas of war and occupation and still resist the power of the arguments above, the Russians have other methods besides propaganda. The occupying forces do not try to hide their brutal torture chambers, kidnappings of Ukrainian children, and summary executions from their new constituents. Everybody knows the cost of resistance. The television channels’ intense focus on the exposure and punishment of “Ukrainian terrorists” (who are in fact anti-Russian partisans, including children) means nobody is likely to forget it.

The difference between general Russian propaganda and its localized counterparts in the occupied regions was initially a story of failure: A failure to understand Ukrainians, a failure to sell them the Russian story. But by recognizing that failure, Russian narratives have become more effective. Residents are left with two options. They can deny reality and become the audience of Moscow’s fiction. Or they can accept the reality of living under occupation and act out this fiction for everyone else.

More at the link!

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

https://twitter.com/PatronDsns/status/1718395762378162527

This new video at Patron’s official TikTok explains why he’s so tired:

@patron__dsns

🤪

♬ Benjamins Deli – JRitt

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 612: A Brief Saturday Night UpdatePost + Comments (24)

Postcards & Music Thread

by WaterGirl|  October 28, 20238:00 pm| 50 Comments

This post is in: Music, Open Threads, Political Action

It’s postcards and music time!

If you’re writing postcards for Virginia or for Issue 1 in Ohio, please mail them by Tuesday, October 31. (or sooner)

If you want to write for Ohio Issue 1, I have addresses from the Ohio peeps who wrote for us with Voces addresses for the Wisconsin Spring Election!  Time to return the favor!  Postcards to Voters has Ohio addresses, also.

All the details on options for writing for Ohio Issue 1 and for Virginia – and images of postcards – are always available in the sidebar.  To make it extra easy to find, I have copied it just below the postcard image.

Send me a photo of your postcards and I’ll post it in the thread.

This awesome postcard is from BlueGuitarist.

Postcards & Music Thread

Political Action

Postcard Writing Information

Music!

Steve Goodman wrote this song, and lots of people have performed it.

This is our last postcard thread for awhile.  Postcard peeps will have to alert me to important campaigns that may be coming up in the next few months.

Open thread.

 

Postcards & Music ThreadPost + Comments (50)

World Series, Game 2: Diamondbacks at Rangers (Open Thread)

by WaterGirl|  October 28, 20237:48 pm| 45 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Sports

Staying neutral as none of my teams are in the game, so the image is from a couple of years ago.  Good representation of the joy of the game.

World Series, Game 2: Diamondbacks at Rangers (Open Thread)

Looks to me like last night’s World Series thread got plenty of action, so I’ll put up posts for all 7 games until / unless participation in the threads drops way off.

I loved going to White Sox games with my Dad when I was a kid.  And on summer nights when baseball was on, we would take our little portable TV out to the roof, set it on a tray, and plug it in through the window to the house.  They are lovely memories, wearing our shorty pajamas on the roof, hanging out with my Dad, after dark, under our little blankies, watching night baseball games.

Totally open thread.

World Series, Game 2: Diamondbacks at Rangers (Open Thread)Post + Comments (45)

End of An Icon (Treason in Defense of Slavery Version)

by Anne Laurie|  October 28, 20236:03 pm| 107 Comments

This post is in: Excellent Links, Military, Racial Justice

Charlottesville’s Robert E. Lee statue has met its end, in a 2,250-degree furnace.

The divisive Confederate monument, the focus of the deadly “Unite the Right” rally in 2017, was secretly melted down and will become a new piece of public art.

More on the process:… pic.twitter.com/XatZUfvku3

— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) October 26, 2023

We’re at the cross-quarter season when the veil between the dead and the living is said to be at its thinnest — a good time to face bad memories and let them go. I’m gonna call this a feel-good story, a little treat for the weekend [unpaywalled gift link]:

SOMEWHERE IN THE U.S. SOUTH — It was a choice to melt down Robert E. Lee. But it would have been a choice to keep him intact, too.

So the statue of the Confederate general that once stood in Charlottesville — the one that prompted the deadly Unite the Right rally in 2017 — was now being cut into fragments and dropped into a furnace, dissolving into a sludge of glowing bronze.

Six years ago, groups with ties to the Confederacy had sued to stop the monument from being taken down. Torch-bearing white nationalists descended on the Virginia college town to protest its removal, and one man drove his car through a crowd of counterprotesters, killing 32-year-old Heather Heyer and injuring 35 others.

The statue’s defenders more recently sought to block the city from handing Lee over to Charlottesville’s Black history museum, which proposed a plan to repurpose the metal. In a lawsuit, those plaintiffs suggested the century-old monument should remain intact or be turned into Civil War-style cannons.

But on Saturday the museum went ahead with its plan in secret at this small Southern foundry outside Virginia, in a town and state The Washington Post agreed not to name because of participants’ fears of violence.

Swords Into Plowshares, a project led by the two women, will turn bronze ingots made from molten Lee into a new piece of public artwork to be displayed in Charlottesville. They made arrangements for Lee to be melted down while they started collecting ideas from city residents for that new sculpture.

Given past threats to the project and worries about legal action, Douglas, Schmidt and other organizers who traveled to this foundry in the American South took great pains to keep this part of the process under wraps. Only a few dozen people, including some who had housed or transported the dismembered figure of Lee, were invited to watch alongside them in secret. They announced the feat at a news conference Thursday afternoon in Charlottesville…

Some said the statue was being destroyed. Others called it a restoration. Depending on whom you asked, the bronze was being reclaimed, disrupted, or redeemed to a higher purpose. It was a grim act of justice and a celebration all in one….

show full post on front page

The statue’s defenders more recently sought to block the city from handing over Lee to the Charlottesville’s Black history museum, which had proposed a plan to repurpose the metal. In a lawsuit, those plaintiffs suggested the monument should remain intact or be turned into Civil… pic.twitter.com/D80282TZYv

— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) October 26, 2023

End of An Icon (Treason in Defense of Slavery Version) - STOCKPILE

Can’t believe we tore down all those Hitler statues https://t.co/Q0HpDsMZiP

— chekovian jubilee (@CollieYimby) October 27, 2023

Robert E. Lee statue that prompted deadly protest in Virginia melted down https://t.co/qPSiCJCnUG

— The Associated Press (@AP) October 27, 2023

Thank you, @sipcville and @JSAAHC for your leadership of the Swords Into Plowshares project. The community of Charlottesville has gone through so much. Now that the Lee statue has been melted, we look forward to new public art! (Free gift article.)https://t.co/9vJolWfpZI

— Melt 'Em Down Cville (@TakeEmDownCVL) October 28, 2023


End of An Icon (Treason in Defense of Slavery Version) - STOCKPILE 1

I would not call the "Sons of Confederate Veterans" a "veterans group" 🤔😂 pic.twitter.com/KunnWacxQp

— Christian Vanderbrouk 🇺🇸🇮🇱🇺🇦 (@UrbanAchievr) October 26, 2023

Too many Idiot-Americans still carry a bitter resentment that they, unlike their ancestors, can no longer aspire to own other human beings for profit. Not surprising that a billionaire narcissist who fled his birth country when apartheid was legally abolished should sympathize with their misplaced aggrievement…

Melting a statue of Robert E Lee is the same as white genocide according to Elon Musk. pic.twitter.com/ANPMnXI3OL

— Alejandra Caraballo (@Esqueer_) October 27, 2023

End of An Icon (Treason in Defense of Slavery Version)Post + Comments (107)

Yesterday the Simple Child Asked & Today Begins the Lesson

by Adam L Silverman|  October 28, 20233:05 pm| 141 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

In Judaism, at the Passover, part of the Seder, the ritual meal, includes recounting the tale of the four sons. Among the four is the simple son. The language here is all sorts of mucked up as it went through multiple languages, most likely Aramaic to Greek and/or Latin to then other European languages, as well as several Hebreo-composite languages (Ladino, Yiddish, Judeo-Arabic, Romaness) and now, for our purposes, into English. In short the simple son is not developmentally disabled, rather he – look this part of the ritual is over a thousand year’s old, of course it’s going to be a he – wants to learn something, but he does not have enough context to formulate his question in the most basic manner. Yesterday, in a comment, this question was asked:

it’s all so complicated. I just want Balloon Juice to be a place where we can think through the situation and talk through the situation, learn something (at least for people like me), and have a safe place to do all of that.

This is what is meant in the ritual formulation of the simple son. Wanting to learn, not quite sure what to ask.

Fortunately for you all we have two front pagers who are Jewish. One with a penchant for writing large tomes, Dutch master painting, and roasted chicken and the other being me. In this case the penchant for writing large tomes, the brushwork of the Dutch masters, nor the best techniques for roasting a chicken are going to be much use. So you’re stuck with me.

I’ve now read Dave Zirin’s column. I think the intention is noble and the emotion is mostly right, but Zirin also fails to properly contextualize what is going on for non-Jewish Americans. As a result, those outside of the community don’t have the context to really make sense of what he has written. The context is that Jewish Americans support for and relationship with Israel has been going through a prolonged set of generational changes. Usually those start among Jewish Americans that are at least a decade younger than me. I’m a bit older than Cole. The short version is that unlike our parents and grandparents we are not reflexively supportive of Israel even if the attempts were made to raise us to be.

My grandparents helped coordinate logistics and supply for the Haganah via their living room in Denver. My parents were, and in the case of my mother still is, strong supporters of Israel. I remember walking in the house after driving up from Miami where I was doing my masters in comparative religion for the weekend and my dad was sitting on one arm of the sofa crying. He looked up, basically made an anguished sound, and gestured wildly at the TV, which was tuned to CNN and was replaying the breaking news over and over that Rabin had been assassinated. I was sent to Jewish day school, where much of even the secular curriculum was oriented not just around Judaism, but also around Israel. Then, of course, I went to a Jesuit high school and a Methodist university.

What’s missing from Zirin’s piece is the context that what had once been a monolithic support for Israel among Jewish Americans ceased to be over the past twenty to thirty years. Some of that was the result of those of us growing up in my generational cohort and the ones after mine not experiencing much, if any, antisemitism. And, as a result, unlike our parents and grandparents, we didn’t feel Israel needed to exist so we had a safe place to escape to. The US was that safe place. Certainly far more than a state constantly under siege. Some of it was watching as Likud’s prime ministers – specifically Begin, Shamir, and Netanyahu – manipulated American politics for their own advantages. And in the case of Bibi it was for his own personal advantage, while for Begin and Shamir it was their advantage on behalf of Israel. Some of it was also recognizing that what we were raised to understand about Judaism as a theology and doctrine was incompatible with how Israel, a state with a majority of Jewish citizens and led by Jews, was treating the Palestinians. As well as other Jewish and non-Jewish Israelis in some cases. A great deal of the attitudinal changes are a combination of all of these.

When you see Jewish groups leading competing demonstrations what you’re seeing is this conflict within the community. Different parts of the Jewish American communities are focusing on different things. Different parts of our theology, our doctrine, our cultural history, our experiences as Americans. This is why some are demonstrating whole hearted support for Israel in the current crisis while others are demanding an immediate ceasefire as Israel’s response should not be justified by Bibi, as he so often does, as necessary to protect Jews everywhere. Hence the “Not in our name!” chants, posters, and t-shirts.

And that’s the context you all need to unpack what Zirin wrote, but which he did not provide. As to whether Balloon Juice, or any other place, is the right place, let alone a safe place to think through and talk through the situation is something I cannot answer. At one level, this is an internal to Judaism issue. We haven’t thought or talked through it as a community, though now we’re screaming at each other about it in public, and we’d appreciate it if those of you outside looking in leave us be because our own history tells us you’ll just make things worse. Thanks for the best wishes, go find a thread about underwater macrame post card music writing in popular culture while watching the ball game or something and leave us out of it.

That’s obviously unrealistic. Everyone wants to talk about what’s going on, make sense of it. From what Hamas actually did, to how it could happen, to what Israel is going to do versus what Israel is going to do. What does this mean for Jews or Arabs or Muslims? What is the US going to do? Etc, etc, etc. There’s no hiding here, but at least I can provide some context.

The reality here is that the two state solution is dead and has been since at least 2013. With the exception of the brief Bennet-Lapid unity government, Israel has been governed by Bibi led coalitions for around fifteen years. Beginning in early 2014, no one in those coalitions – and the 2014 one was nowhere near as extreme as the current one is – has supported a two state solution. In fact they, including Bibi, have opposed the idea. Similarly, the leadership of the Palestinian Authority had basically given up on the idea by 2014 as well. In the latter’s case they believe that demographic reality will eventually solve the problem for them if there was only a one state solution. Hamas, PIJ, and the other extremist groups have never supported the idea. The problem, of course, is that the US policy is to seek a two state solution. Unfortunately, policy cannot ask of strategy that which policy cannot or will not provide: achievable objectives. What we need is a strategy to either move the Israelis and the Palestinians back into willingness to attempt a two state solution or we need a strategy to achieve a one state solution that does not make things worse than the status quo. We have none of those things now. We had none of them in 2014. And we definitely had none of them when Jared was making things worse.

I would appreciate it if just this once that people don’t argue this point with me in the comments. I’m the person who wrote the strategic and policy assessment on this topic in 2014 for my boss the Commanding General of US Army Europe, his boss the Commanding General of EUCOM/the Supreme Allied Commander Europe (who assigned it as the read of the week to his entire command), the Special Envoy for Middle East Peace, and through those three the Secretary of Defense and Secretary of State. it included a robust discussion of needing either a strategy to get the Israelis and Palestinians back to a two state track or develop new policy and strategy for a just, equitable one state solution. As an FYI: I also wrote the historic – as in it recounts the history of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict – introduction for the report and assessment that was produced by US Army Europe for the Departments of Defense and State in support of the 2014 peace process.

No matter what happens as the Israel-Hamas war unfolds, it is not going to get us to a two state solution. Because right now no one on either side wants one.

As for a ceasefire or armistice, calling for one is fine as long as one is realistic and recognizes that it isn’t going to happen as a result of external pressure. The fact that a bare majority of Israelis now want a strategic pause in operations to increase the chances to get the hostages out may lead to that happening, but I wouldn’t put money on it. The only way to prevent what is coming is for the US to assemble an international coalition that includes Arab and Muslim states, put boots on the ground in Gaza, and then both rescue the hostages while dismantling Hamas and bringing its leaders and fighters to justice. NOT GONNA HAPPEN!!!!

Like everyone else, you’ll find Jewish Americans on different sides of every social, political, economic, and religious issue regarding both domestic and international politics. The demonstrations you’re seeing now, that Zirin wrote about, that you all tried to deal with yesterday though you didn’t have the context, is not new. It is just now very visible because of the current Israel-Hamas war. It is, simply, the result of intergenerational changes among Jewish Americans. Changes that have been underway for several decades, but are now very visible.

One final point: some of the “not in my name” protests are enlightened self interest. They are attempts by some Jewish Americans to make it clear to everyone that Jewish does not equal Israel and that Judaism does not equal Israel. Because the fear, and it is a real one, is that this truth is going to continue to be erased. And as it is erased antisemitism and attacks on Jews in the US will increase even more than they have over the past eight years. We are already seeing neo-NAZIs and white supremacists infiltrating the pro-Palestinian activities that have developed over the past three weeks with the intent to turn them fully into antisemitic activities. Not because the neo-NAZIs like Arabs or Muslims, they don’t, but because they think they can use them to get at their preferred target: Jews. We’ve also seen what we so often deride here as the dirtbag left demonstrate that it is not so much pro-Palestinian as it is antisemitic. Jewish Americans were already far more scared than they’d previously been before Hamas attacked Israel on 7 OCT. Now that they’ve seen how non-Jewish Americans have responded, they’re even more scared. And unlike our parents and grandparents, we know that Israel is not a safe place to seek refuge should the worst come to pass here. Scared and feeling trapped is not a good combination. It is not conducive to rational thought or sound decision making.

In my case, regardless of my views regarding Israel, I raised my hand and swore the oath. And while I no longer have any role or serve any purpose in American national security, I have not been released from that oath. Regardless of what happens I will remain what I’ve always been: an American, whose religion is Judaism. I cannot go to Israel because I will not break my oath. Even if it would be the only way to save my life.

Hamas’s attack has been far, far, far more successful than it ever expected. Unfortunately, when it is all said and done, no one is going to win this war. The only question is how far does the collateral damage actually spread.

Next time just ask for the context. It will save us all a lot of discomfort.

Thus endeth the lesson.

I’m going to watch rugby.

Open thread.

ETA at 10:45 PM: I made a slight adjustment in the paragraph that starts with “That’s obviously unrealistic” in order to make the post more coherent.

Yesterday the Simple Child Asked & Today Begins the LessonPost + Comments (141)

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