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War for Ukraine Day 553: The Russian Bombardment of Civilians and Civilian Targets Continues

by Adam L Silverman|  August 30, 20237:12 pm| 116 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Quick housekeeping note: we are all good here! Power never went out, some branches down on the property, but none of it on the house or roof. We were, once again, very, very lucky!

The Russians opened up on Ukrainian civilian targets again overnight:

Last night, russians attacked Ukraine with 28 cruise missiles and 16 Shahed UAVs.
All missiles and 15 drones have been shot down.@CinC_AFU
Unfortunately, there are killed and injured civillians, as well as ruined buildings, as a result of falling fragments of destroyed missiles… pic.twitter.com/k4LiY7GPwl

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 30, 2023

Last night, russians attacked Ukraine with 28 cruise missiles and 16 Shahed UAVs.
All missiles and 15 drones have been shot down.
@CinC_AFU

Unfortunately, there are killed and injured civilians, as well as ruined buildings, as a result of falling fragments of destroyed missiles and drones.

Fragments of destroyed russian missile hit a mall in Kyiv, where supermarket AUCHAN is located. @AUCHAN_France continues its work in russia, pays taxes, finances war and suffers from russian attacks.
Cynism, masochism, or stupidity?
Exit russia: this money is too bloody.

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 30, 2023

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

No queues: MMCs’ work digitalization is of great importance – address by the President of Ukraine

30 August 2023 – 22:37

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

A report for the day.

First of all, the NSDC. I held a meeting today. As I said earlier, there was only one issue – MMCs.

The inspection of military medical commissions across the country is underway. Law enforcers will complete it soon. And there are already several conclusions.

It is necessary to check a significant number of decisions of the military medical commissions on disability and unfitness for military service that were made after February 24. Today, the relevant statistics were presented at the National Security and Defense Council. There are examples of regions where the number of people removed from the military register due to the MMC’s decision has increased tenfold since February last year. It is absolutely clear what these decisions are. Corrupt decisions. And in the criminal proceedings that are currently underway against the staff of MMCs and MSECs, it is even clearer how many decisions could have been falsified. Law enforcement officers have already clearly identified unreasonable MMCs’ decisions. Specific evidence has been recorded. It has been presented behind closed doors. Different regions of the country, different TRCs, different officials. The bribes range from 3 to 15 thousand dollars. They will be held accountable.

The list of those who went abroad due to obviously dubious decisions of MMCs will be analyzed separately. First of all, due to the decisions of those who have already been caught taking bribes. We are talking about at least thousands of people.

We will also address the issue that almost all commanders in the field are referring to – the concept of so-called limited fitness. For a very long time, this concept allowed for manipulation in the manning of units. In particular, combat brigades. Everything related to fitness or unfitness for military service must be as clear as possible. So that a person understands how he or she can help the defense, and so that the units have clarity on who will be joining them.

And a very important point is the digitalization of the MMCs’ work. No more queues. No more wandering around to find or sign the right paper. All this can be ensured electronically and by the presence of the necessary military personnel at the place where the medical examination takes place, if it is in a civilian medical institution. Government officials will complete this digitalization work. And we need full accessibility in all areas of the civilian medical system for the purpose of undergoing the MMC’s examination. Some regions, such as Volyn, have ensured this one hundred percent. And another example is that in Kyiv, almost nothing has been done to allow people to undergo the MMC’s examination in civilian medical institutions.

Therefore, the military command, the medical sector, and all levels of government must work as actively as possible to resolve this issue.

The second topic for today is our international agenda. We are actively preparing for the negotiations and meetings scheduled for September. I have held meetings with international relations officials, with our ambassadors in the respective countries. We clearly see which leaders we need to meet and negotiate with, and what results we have to bring to Ukraine.

The third issue is the European Union. I held a large meeting with representatives of the parliament, government officials, and our international relations officials on our readiness for the launch of membership negotiations with the EU. The implementation of the recommendations. The necessary bills that have already been prepared and need to be passed in the parliament. 226 votes for each decision for Ukraine in the European Union is an obligation.

And a few more things.

Peace Formula. Today, a new meeting was held with representatives of diplomatic missions on the implementation of the Peace Formula. Andriy Yermak chaired it. And today, there were 11 more diplomats, bringing the total to more than 70 diplomatic missions involved. This is a very good dynamic. And there can be even more participating states. The world majority will be with us.

The Peace Formula is designed so that every country and every leader can demonstrate their capabilities for the sake of a common result, for a just and lasting peace.

And our air defense. I thank every warrior who defends Ukrainian skies every day and every night. We are working very hard to provide Ukraine with new air defense systems. Now is not the time to talk publicly about the details, but negotiations on additional air defense systems are ongoing with our various partners. Step by step, we are bringing this success closer for Ukraine.

Glory to everyone who fights and works for Ukraine! I thank everyone in the world who helps!

Glory to Ukraine!

The cost:

A childhood dream. In an art therapy session, 9-year-old Kamila illustrated her dream: to have her father, who perished in the war, return to Earth as an angel. They are all angels – our heroes – safeguarding their little ones in dreams as they slumber.
Story: Pierre Polard
📷… pic.twitter.com/rtsrhuAs6V

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 30, 2023

A childhood dream. In an art therapy session, 9-year-old Kamila illustrated her dream: to have her father, who perished in the war, return to Earth as an angel. They are all angels – our heroes – safeguarding their little ones in dreams as they slumber.
Story: Pierre Polard
📷 Patryck Jaracz

I meant to include this video yesterday and forgot until after the post had been up for several hours, so it goes in tonight. Since I don’t know the nym of the commenter who sent it to me, just the person’s real name, feel free to sound off in the comments and take credit it for sending it across. Thanks!

Last night in comments way2blue asked:

The past few weeks we’ve seen repeated complaints from unnamed Pentagon & intelligence officials—nitpicking the pace & focus of the Ukrainian counter offensive.My question to you is why?Could you offer insight into their motives?  Seems counter-productive & perverse.

Are their military assessments not being taken seriously by the White House?So they leak to the public hoping for traction?Or the opposite?Is Russian framing hardwired within segments of the Biden administration?Are they left over from the Trump administration?Scapegoating?Something else?

Thanks as always for your professional insights into so many facets of war in Ukraine.

You are most welcome. Thank you for the kind words. To answer your question, I do not know. Some of this stuff has leaked to WaPo’s David Ignatius, who is considered to be the go to source for the Intel Community leadership to get information they want out to the public out to the public. But since these concerns and complaints are being made anonymously I have no idea if these are senior people with permission to leak or they’re frustrated career folks or they’re uniformed or civilian. What I do know is that all this does is help the Russians with their information warfare campaign.

Speaking of Biden administration statements, this is interesting:

to Russia. Since that visit, Pres. Putin & the leader of the DPRK Kim Jong Un have exchanged letters, pledging to increase their bilateral cooperation. Our information further indicates that following Shoygu’s visit, another group of Russian officials traveled to Pyongyang

— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) August 30, 2023

the DPRK, which the Russian military plans to use in Ukraine. These potential deals could also include the provision of raw materials that would assist Russia's defense industrial base… An arms deal between the DPRK & Russia would directly violate a number of UN Security Council

— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) August 30, 2023

More related from US Ambassdor to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield: pic.twitter.com/R9Ga60CRXC

— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) August 30, 2023

Here’s the screen grab from Rozen’s tweet above:

Screen grab of a statement regarding Russian-DPRK cooperation made by John Kirby.

he declined to get into that but it was implied this was derived from US intelligence

— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) August 30, 2023

This would be an authorized disclosure of information/intelligence.

Andriy Zagorodnyuk, the former Ukrainian Minister of Defense, did an interesting interview yesterday with Christianne Amanpour:

This evening I was talking to Christiane Amanpour @amanpour live on @cnn about our situation on the front and the future of war. Four parts and citations are below in the comments:
🧵 1/5 pic.twitter.com/T6AJ335jle

— Andriy P. Zagorodnyuk (@Andriypzag) August 29, 2023

🧵 3/5 https://t.co/ZdABfAlsPU

— Andriy P. Zagorodnyuk (@Andriypzag) August 29, 2023

🧵 5/5 https://t.co/bRLDi1ruf0

— Andriy P. Zagorodnyuk (@Andriypzag) August 29, 2023

Verbove:

Ukraine has breached the first Russian main defensive line, as known as the Surovikin line, in the direction of Verbove.

The village is integrated to the Russian defenses, and it's not clear if Ukraine tries to push inside the village, or are they just widening the flanks. 1/6 pic.twitter.com/J6YDbUNUSJ

— Emil Kastehelmi (@emilkastehelmi) August 30, 2023

You can read more about the fortifications of this area from my thread here.

I'm rather convinced the Ukrainian attack won't stop here, the defences are breachable. It seems they are going for the Ocheretuvate direction. 3/6https://t.co/x5SV88uFvR

— Emil Kastehelmi (@emilkastehelmi) August 30, 2023

Also, there is possibly some Ukrainian success south of Urozhaine. Our team is looking into that, we'll get back to this later if we manage to geolocate this video. Follow our master geolocator @EerikMatero for updates. 5/6 pic.twitter.com/NEJSPbejGS

— Emil Kastehelmi (@emilkastehelmi) August 30, 2023

By the way, thanks to @moklasen, he was the first to geolocate the video. Nice work!https://t.co/IItfPi4L4T

— Emil Kastehelmi (@emilkastehelmi) August 30, 2023

Yes, this was a part of the weaker section. However, the village of Verbove might be a difficult obstacle, as it's a built area in a valley, and the Russians still likely control the heights on both sides.

— Emil Kastehelmi (@emilkastehelmi) August 30, 2023

 

This is very, very bad. The Ukrainians cannot afford to lose any pilots or aviation assets.

Bad week for Ukrainian pilots. Six pilots of the 18th Army Aviation Brigade were killed near Bakhmut, the Ukrainian military said. Circumstances not disclosed. https://t.co/2IwJgvNJtR

— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) August 30, 2023

Suspilne has the (machine translated) details:

August 29 on Bakhmut direction died six pilots from the 18th separate brigade of army aviation named after Igor Sikorsky. This happened during the combat task.

This was reported to the Public by a spokesman for the brigade Eugene Rakita.

The fallen had officer ranks. One of them — comes from Poltavshchyna, the rest – from other regions of Ukraine, the spokesman added.

 

For you Russian equipment go boom enthusiasts:

The lad needs his own livestream on Twitch, I'd be watching this content daily 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/4YZoGTnr7x

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) August 30, 2023

A bunch of locations in Russia and Russian occupied Crimea were attacked by drones last night:

Drone attack on six Russian regions reported:
– Pskov airport: four Il-76 military transport aircraft damaged;
– Bryansk: Kremniy El microelectronics factory on fire
– Kaluga: oil reservoir hit
– Moscow
– Oryol
– Ryazan

Sevastopol and the bay attacked by naval drones.

Is… pic.twitter.com/o5RcfJ5K6U

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) August 30, 2023

Drone attack on six Russian regions reported:
– Pskov airport: four Il-76 military transport aircraft damaged;
– Bryansk: Kremniy El microelectronics factory on fire
– Kaluga: oil reservoir hit
– Moscow
– Oryol
– Ryazan

Sevastopol and the bay attacked by naval drones.

Is everything still according to plan?

Pskov airfield Kresty is located 950 km (590 miles) from Kyiv. Men filming drone attack destroying four IL-76 aircrafts says: ‘Welcome to the 24th of February, tovarischi (comrades).” pic.twitter.com/8ZCEWbo4tb

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) August 30, 2023

The Financial Times has details:

Ukrainian drones struck seven Russian regions overnight, destroying several military cargo planes, in Kyiv’s most sweeping unmanned aerial attack inside enemy territory since Moscow invaded last year.

Videos showed nighttime blasts of rocket fire over the city of Pskov close to Russia’s border with Estonia. Flames could be seen rising over the city’s military-civilian airport as Russian air defences attempted to take down the drones. According to state news agency Tass, at least four Ilyushin Il-76 planes, large military cargo carriers, were destroyed in the Pskov attack.

Drones also attacked targets in the Oryol, Kaluga and Ryazan regions, and in Bryansk, where they aimed for the local television tower, among other buildings. Another drone aiming for Moscow was shot down in the Ruzsky district west of the city, the Russian defence ministry claimed.

In Bryansk, the region’s governor, said they had shot down seven drones overnight and in the early morning hours.

The airport in Pskov was closed to civilian use on Wednesday, Russia’s aviation agency said. The governor said authorities needed to assess whether there had been any damage to its landing strip.

Emergency services told the Tass state news agency that four Il-76 planes were damaged. “A fire started, two aircraft are engulfed in flames,” it said.

Ukraine has steadily extended its ability to strike targets deeper behind enemy lines. It has used foreign-supplied artillery and missile systems, such as US Himars and British Storm shadow missiles, to hit Russian targets on Ukrainian soil.

But to strike within Russian territory, Ukraine has had to develop homegrown solutions as its western allies have refused to give it weapons to attack Russia itself.

Such attacks “have military utility”, Mick Ryan, a former Australian general and frequent commentator on the war in Ukraine, said on social media, because they “could force redeployment of Russian air force assets from Ukraine”.

Since Ukrainian drones fly more slowly and at a lower altitude than missiles, and are often made of non-metallic parts, analysts say they have sometimes been able to dodge Russian air defences.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s improved air defences have been increasingly able to intercept Russian aerial attacks. Russia launched a massive missile and drone attack on Kyiv overnight that left at least two dead and two wounded. But Ukrainian air defences managed to down all 28 missiles and 15 out of the 16 Russian drones, according to Valery Zaluzhny, commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces.

Much more at the link!

The Financial Times also brings this excellent piece by Bronwen Maddox, the Director of Chatham House:

Of the two startling images that circled the globe last week, only one should prompt a foreign policy rethink for the UK and its allies. It is not the flaming wreckage of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s plane near Moscow. The dramatic death of the leader of the Wagner group, widely predicted since his attempted mutiny against Vladimir Putin in June, told us nothing new. This assumed demonstration of theatrical brutality only strengthens Ukraine’s resolve in the fight against Putin.

It is the police mugshot of Donald Trump that deserves more thought. Carefully posed (he chose to glower rather than smile under the combed sweep of his hair) and immediately circulated by his team as a symbol of his supposed martyrdom, it drove his poll ratings only higher. The image will dominate next year’s presidential campaign (in which he holds the overwhelming lead for the Republican nomination). US District Judge Tanya Chutkan on Monday set a start date of March 4 2024 for his federal criminal trial on charges of alleged election interference, one day before “Super Tuesday”, when Republican voters in more than a dozen states head to the polls to pick their nominee.

British foreign policy, like that in much of Europe and many democracies beyond, is based on the presumption that the US in some sense always remains the same. Its presidents, its policies, its wars of choice come and go. But America upholds the principle of international institutions even if it rails against some of them or funds them sporadically. It continues to pick up the giant’s share of the tab for Nato, above all.

Those assumptions are confounded if Donald Trump is elected again. His critics say that surely he would not win more support than in 2016, but President Joe Biden’s stumbles, literal and figurative, and the unpopularity of Kamala Harris as vice-president have left the Democrat vote vulnerable.

Dealing with Trump in the White House again would present problems on a different scale. In a second term, he would be a president who had denied the result of one election and rejected the legal process of being held to account for that. He would have an utterly different conception of America’s role in the world and the nature of its democracy at home, of the rule of law at home and abroad. And so would the US voters who elected him.

At that point, the US becomes, for its allies, a different country altogether. The implications for global institutions, for international law and order, for predictability of a world superpower are stark. That they are barely discussed in published foreign policy is perhaps because of concern about jeopardising current relationships. But the prospect of the US being led by a president who denies the principles of American democracy is likely enough that this is no longer a good excuse.

Much, much more at the link!

I want to make an important point in light of Maddox’s op-ed. For those who think that Trump could not or would not be elected again in 2024 you need to realize that it is possible that he could or would be. Given the nature of the electoral college Trump still has the same 30% chance of getting reelected that he did in 2016. The revolt and insurrection of his followers is ongoing. Unlike in the 1860s, this is actually a civil war albeit a cold to lukewarm one. We sit the warmer to hotter spikes multiple times a week. This past week we saw them at UNC and in Jacksonville and in several other places. Yes, Trump and some of the more/most senior co-conspirators in the attempt to overthrow the constitutional order and the constitution itself have finally be indicted. That’s great. There is no way to know if Trump will actually be held accountable. In half the states, as I wrote about Florida last night in response to a question in the comments to hurricane update thread, we have illiberal managed Christian herrenvolk democracy:

[Florida] has been gerrymandered within an inch of its life and DeStupid also controls the courts as he’s appointed the majority of the state supreme and appeals court judges over the last five plus years. The state is a managed white Christian herrenvolk illiberal democracy run on behalf of DeStupid’s ambitions and the oligarchs that fund them.

Over half the states are just like Florida in terms of GOP trifectas. Right now Robin Vos, the Speaker of the Wisconsin House is working to overthrow the last judicial election. The minute he files the impeachment charges against the new state supreme court justice she is suspended from all further judicial activities. Meaning she can’t rule on anything and the state supreme court is a 3-3 deadlock, which essentially neuters it. Bloomberg just published a piece on how the GOP majorities and supermajorities in red state legislatures are subverting the Democratic municipal governments inside their states. These governments are usually in the largest urban areas.

In red states across the South, Republican legislatures are increasingly interfering in the governance of Democratic cities by blocking liberal reforms and often dictating conservative policies in their place. In Texas, Republicans overrode measures in Austin and Dallas guaranteeing water breaks for construction workers and blocked cities’ ability to mandate paid leave for workers. In Mississippi, Republicans created a separate police force and court system for a majority White part of the heavily Black capital city of Jackson, prompting the US Department of Justice to file a complaint calling the move “racially discriminatory.” In Missouri, Republicans forced Kansas City to increase spending on policing and have been trying to take control of police oversight in St. Louis, which would reverse the outcome of a statewide ballot initiative passed 10 years ago.

Much, much more at the link.

As I’ve written here before: an insurrection (or revolt or rebellion or civil war) that goes unpunished is practiced. The only way to ensure that it is stopped is a transparent response that happens quickly. The response in regard to the leadership to the 6 January revolt and the ongoing insurrection and cold to lukewarm civil war has neither been transparent nor quick. The only reason it is happening at the Federal level is that former Speaker Pelosi set up the January 6th Committee in order to shame AG Garland into doing more than pencil whipping whatever DOJ was doing around the executive suite of the building. The US is being internally subverted – out administered – in conjunction with the non-kinetic elements of a world war being waged against us by Russia. Our domestic institutions are sclerotic, unstable, and in need of significant TLC. The international order we established after WW II is in similarly bad shape and, because we are in a world war being waged against us and our allies by Russia, despite no one in the Biden administration being willing to even consider that reality, let alone admit it, once that war concludes the global system we have all been living in is going to be remade whether we like it or not. Think I’m being hyperbolic, here’s Fiona Hill’s assessment:

“This is a great power conflict, the third great power conflict in the European space in a little over a century,” Hill says. “It’s the end of the existing world order. Our world is not going to be the same as it was before.”

Part of the problem is that conceptually, people have a hard time with the idea of a world war. It brings all kinds of horrors to mind — the Holocaust and the detonation of nuclear weapons in Hiroshima and Nagasaki and the dawning of the nuclear age. But if you think about it, a world war is a great power conflict over territory which overturns the existing international order and where other states find themselves on different sides of the conflict. It involves economic warfare, information warfare, as well as kinetic war.

We’re in the same situation. Again, Putin invaded Ukraine in 2014, exactly 100 years after Germany invaded Belgium and France — and just in the same way that Hitler seized the Sudetenland, annexed Austria and invaded Poland. We’re having a hard time coming to terms with what we’re dealing with here. This is a great power conflict, the third great power conflict in the European space in a little over a century. It’s the end of the existing world order. Our world is not going to be the same as it was before.

People worry about this being dangerous hyperbole. But we have to really accept what the situation is to be able to respond appropriately. Each war has been fought differently. Modern wars involve information space and cyberspace, and we’ve seen all of these at play here. And, in the 21st century, these are economic and financial wars. We’re all-in on the financial and economic side of things.

Much, much more at the link.

If you don’t think Trump can be elected again in 2024 you are deluding yourself. If you don’t think he will then capitalize on being elected and quickly move to overturn the constitutional order and the Constitution in the name of protecting them to establish an illiberal, managed white Christian herrenvolk democracy then you haven’t been paying attention. The greatest domestic threat to the US would be a second Trump administration. It would also be the greatest threat to the international order and global system. The US would hand Ukraine, as well as Moldova over to Russia. And the Baltics would likely be in play too because Trump will pull the US out of NATO. He just announced he’d impose a set of tarriffs and start a trade war that would crash both the US and global economies. None of this is written in stone. Our fate is not utterly binding. There are a lot of dynamics in play, such as the continued effects of the Dobbs decision. However, we are dealing with a civil war inside and related to a world war and if we don’t get our heads around this soon we will wake up in November 2024 and it will be too late.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There is a new Patron slideshow at his official TikTok. These don’t embed here, so click through if you want to see it.

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 553: The Russian Bombardment of Civilians and Civilian Targets ContinuesPost + Comments (116)

Someone Who Does Appear To Be Aging Out Of His Position of Power

by Tom Levenson|  August 30, 20235:19 pm| 176 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Politics, Republican Politics, Republicans in Disarray!

Mitch McConnell is not well.  This happened today:

Mr. McConnell, 81, was taking questions from reporters after an event hosted by the Northern Kentucky Chamber of Commerce when he was asked for his thoughts on running for re-election in 2026. Mr. McConnell, who appeared thinner and frailer than he has in recent months, began to answer the question with a slight chuckle when he abruptly stopped speaking, standing motionless behind a lectern with his mouth pursed and his eyes wide.

When an aide approached to ask if he had heard the question, he mumbled “yes,” but he seemed unable to continue speaking or to move.

I wish I believed in hell (other than that we create for ourselves on our third rock from the sun); if I did I’d be certain that McConnell was bound for a very toasty eternity.  So I’m not going to pretend that his suffering offers any excuse for all the harm he’s wrought in power.

Still, I’ll admit to a certain empathy, if no sympathy; as I age and more bits work less well I do not wish that sense of encroaching limitation on myself or others. I don’t feel sorry for him; I do recognize that old age , as my grandmother-in-law was known to have said, is not for sissies.

Someone Who Does Appear To Be Aging Out Of His Position of Power

Anyway, enough trying to parse my unwillingness to entertain a sense of earned punishment in these circumstances. The reality is that McConnell looks like he is really not in good shape. That leads directly to speculation on what comes once he is forced from the stage, whether by death or disability.  I have no real insight, except to channel Clubber Lang’s prediction for his upcoming bout with Rocky:

It will mean a vacancy for at least a little while in the Senate, on the order of a month or so.  KY law (changed in 2021 to hamstring its Democratic governor) requires the governor to appoint a senator from a list supplied by the state party to which the previous incumbent belonged. The seat must be filled within three weeks of receiving that list, and if I’m Andy Breashears, I’d wait till the last day the law allows.  In the meantime, the GOP Senators would have to choose a new leader, a process that I’m sure will be marked by much hilarity.

Which is, I guess, an appropriate postscript to McConnell’s legacy: leaving all he touches worse for his passage through this time and place.

This thread is as open as the IHOP on Soldiers Field Road in Boston.

Image: Vincent van Gogh, Old man with a stick, 1882

Someone Who Does Appear To Be Aging Out Of His Position of PowerPost + Comments (176)

Eastman Vouches for Crooked Clarence

by Betty Cracker|  August 30, 202312:26 pm| 257 Comments

This post is in: Activist Judges!, Open Threads, Politics, Republican Stupidity

It’s amusing that Crooked Clarence Thomas allies feel obligated to defend his (nonexistent) honor — they’re feeling the heat. Via TPM reporter Nicole Lafond:

Fox News published a piece this Tuesday afternoon reporting that more than 100 of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas’ former clerks had signed onto a letter defending the justice’s “integrity” and “independence.” The signatories argued that recent media reports on him unethically accepting luxurious gifts from billionaire donors and people with business before the high court are simply all “part of larger attack on the Court” and its “legitimacy.”

High profile circuit court judges like David Stras of the 8th Circuit Court of Appeals, Jim Ho of the 5th Circuit and Allison Rushing of the 4th (all Trump appointees) count themselves among the 112 signees.

And so does John Eastman.

You’re damn right it’s a larger indictment of the Leo Court and its “legitimacy.” Also, Eastman doesn’t seem to grasp his change in status from tweedy fash-curious law professor to multiply indicted criminal defendant on the verge of disbarment.

Lafond notes that Eastman keeps popping up in the media “during a time when it would behoove him to keep quiet.” As we discussed here recently, Eastman gave an interview to a Claremont Institute colleague a while back and basically confessed to trying to overthrow the duly elected government.

This week, he was scheduled to appear on Laura Ingraham’s White Power Hour. I didn’t watch it, but it’s hard to imagine him helping his case in that venue. Keep talking, Eastman. Keep talking.

As for Crooked Clarence, I’ll repurpose a famous Emerson quote: “The louder he talked of his honor, the faster we counted his wingnut billionaire-funded vacations and gifts.”

Open thread!

Eastman Vouches for Crooked ClarencePost + Comments (257)

Squishable Morning Thread

by Betty Cracker|  August 30, 20236:58 am| 201 Comments

This post is in: How about that weather?, Open Threads

Greetings from the outer bands of Idalia! From the radar loop I’m currently viewing, it looks like the hurricane will come ashore somewhere around Steinhatchee and Keaton Beach very soon as a Cat 3. Best of luck to all in its path!

I’m having a cup of coffee and impatiently awaiting sunrise so I can see if we’ve had any damage. We seem to have weathered a stormy night well — we didn’t even lose power for more than a few minutes. But I heard some crashing and thuds overnight and want to make sure no trees have squashed our vehicles.

Completely open thread!

ETA: Vehicles not squashed — yay!

Squishable Morning ThreadPost + Comments (201)

Hurricane Open Thread

by Adam L Silverman|  August 29, 202311:48 pm| 98 Comments

This post is in: How about that weather?, Open Threads, Silverman on Security

Just a quick hurricane open thread. They’re now forecasting that Idalia to intensify to category 4 and make landfall at that strength. The track has not changed. It is going to come in just north of Cedar Key on the southeastern side closer to the apex of Florida’s Big Bend. Storm surge for that area is predicted to be 12 to 15 feet above ground level (AGL) maximum.

Where I’m at things are still fairly calm. It finally started to rain about two hours ago. The predicted maximum storm surge for Tampa Bay been reduced to 3 to 6 feet from 4 to 7 feet AGL. However, if you actually go and check the storm surge inundation/flooding map at the National Hurricane Center, the potential predicted flooding is only 1 foot AGL. This is all because the storm has stayed 100 miles off shore of the west coast as it heads north. This means my area is unlikely to even see tropical storm force winds except in the occasional gust. So while they’re still somewhat concerned about storm surge during the king tides this coming morning and then midday tomorrow for Tampa Bay, the forecasts are all now focusing on the Cedar Key area and the Big Bend because that’s where Idalia is going to make landfall. They’re also worried about some of the rivers that empty into the gulf north of the Tampa Bay area, but south of where Idalia should make landfall.

For those interested, here is one of the sites I’ve been checking over the past couple of days. This link is to the forecast model animation.

Open thread!

Hurricane Open ThreadPost + Comments (98)

War for Ukraine Day 552: the Anniversary of Russia’s War Crime in Ilovaisk

by Adam L Silverman|  August 29, 20236:34 pm| 63 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Housekeeping notes: 1) We’re set here. They have not called to evacuate anything but evacuation Zone A plus mobile homes. We’re not in Zone A. I’ve got everything prepped and now we just wait. So far we had one heavy squall line come through around 2:30 or so, beyond that its been light rain to drizzle with light to moderate wind. In fact if it stops raining for a bit I’ll probably walk the dogs after I finish the update. 2) I have an Anker PowerHouse, Compact 400Wh / 120000mAh Portable Outlet, but the AC adapter that you plug into the input to recharge it has gone missing since last year. It is 12V I emailed Anker customer service asking if I could order a new AC adapter directly from them, but all I got back was a large language model AI response that was not helpful at all. According to the product description it will fully recharge in 10.5 hours with a 16.8V=3A power supply. So if any of you all have a suggestion for a replacement AC adapter please let me know in the comments.

On August 29th 2014 the Russians violated the agreement that established a humanitarian corridor to evacuate Ukrainian military personnel from Ilovaisk. Rather than honor the agreement the Russians opened up on the retreating Ukrainians:

August 29, 2014. A tragedy in Ilovaisk. A day when russian forces, despite an agreement, fired upon Ukrainian columns in a humanitarian corridor.
A russian crime that marks the beginning of the Day of Remembrance of the Fallen Defenders of Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/zZacqM2OaF

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 29, 2023

The Russians have a history of violating these agreements and attacking humanitarian corridors. For instance, by attacking civilians evacuating through a humanitarian corridor in Chechnya in 1999. As well as several times in Ukraine over the past eighteen months, such as the attack on those evacuating Sumy.

There is not any agreement that the Ukrainians can make with the Russian government that can be relied upon.

As I was saying:

As for calls for negotiations with Putin, ask Mr. Prigozhin, not us. He had conflict with Putin, he successfully negotiated with Putin, ended that conflict. They agreed on security guarantees, and then Putin killed him – Kuleba. https://t.co/GfHHaqzsey

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) August 29, 2023

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

It is a duty to be worthy of the path Ukraine is on – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

29 August 2023 – 22:07

Dear Ukrainians!

Today is a special day. The Day of Remembrance. The day of all our defenders who have perished in battles for Ukraine since 2014, since February 24. Sons, daughters. Fathers, mothers. Brothers, sisters. Friends. Colleagues. Acquaintances. Brothers-in-arms. Many Ukrainians today have someone to remember, someone to honor.

Today, many of us were thinking of our loved ones, relatives and friends who are now at war. Who are now risking their lives every day, every hour for the sake of Ukraine.

Every such day is a reminder for our entire nation. For everyone who works for the state. It is a reminder of what makes up our country. Ukrainian families whose sons and daughters perished in battles. For them, for the parents of Ukrainian heroes, the blue and yellow flag of Ukraine is now a reminder of their child, of his or her feat for the sake of the country. A child whose father died at the front defending Ukraine… Loved ones who will never meet again because the war took away a life that became the life of Ukraine… Everything that is our state and everyone who is our state – every institution, every official – must feel what kind of Ukraine is behind them. How much pain is in its heart. How much courage it has. What the memory of people who are no longer alive is. What is now in its symbols. And how differently people now perceive everything that humiliates Ukraine, its strength and hopes.

It is a duty to be worthy of the path Ukraine is on. To give Ukraine more strength. More opportunities. It is a duty. To care about everyone around you. To support them. To take care of people. And always bring the result closer. The main result for Ukraine. Ukraine must prevail. This is the main thing for everyone. So that we do not have to look away from the photos of the warriors on the Wall of Remembrance and other memorials.

I thank everyone who works for Ukraine, who fights for Ukraine in this way: with dignity, courage, and strength.

Glory to all our warriors! Glory to our people, the people of Ukraine!

May the memory of all those who gave their lives for the sake of Ukraine be eternal.

Glory to Ukraine!

Glory to the Heroes!

Today in Ukraine, it's the Day of Remembrance of the Fallen Defenders of Ukraine. On this day, we remember the soldiers who gave their lives in the war with russia. The war for freedom. The war for the survival of our people and our state.
They gave us time to build a new army… pic.twitter.com/fhCQwb2KjT

— Oleksii Reznikov (@oleksiireznikov) August 29, 2023

Today in Ukraine, it’s the Day of Remembrance of the Fallen Defenders of Ukraine. On this day, we remember the soldiers who gave their lives in the war with russia. The war for freedom. The war for the survival of our people and our state.
They gave us time to build a new army with modern weapons, to weaken an enemy much larger and stronger, and ultimately to defeat it.
We will remember your sacrifice. We will not squander the chance you’ve given us.

 

We pay tribute to the memory of Ukrainian soldiers who have fallen in the war with russia since 2014. Thousands have given their lives so that millions could live and continue their struggle. Never forget them. pic.twitter.com/NlodeW7FUu

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 29, 2023

Honoring the fallen heroes of Ukraine in Mykolaiv. A touching tribute to those who sacrificed their lives to defend our nation. The installation of military boots on Soborna Square stands as a reminder of the true price of freedom.

📷 Mykolaiv Regional Military Administration pic.twitter.com/yqmY7DWrWg

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 29, 2023

The cost:

Today, on the Day of Remembrance of the Fallen Defenders of Ukraine, the bodies of 84 fallen soldiers have been returned to Ukraine.

📷 Valentyn Ogirenko/Reuters pic.twitter.com/mH9PBN4uyF

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 29, 2023

Today, loved ones, combat brothers and sisters, and Kyivans bid farewell to a legendary pilot of the 40th Tactical Aviation Brigade, Major (posthumously) Andrii Pilshchykov. He was among those who helped Ukraine survive the first terrible days of the invasion. He made significant… pic.twitter.com/9YkcQqIZAY

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 29, 2023

Today, loved ones, combat brothers and sisters, and Kyivans bid farewell to a legendary pilot of the 40th Tactical Aviation Brigade, Major (posthumously) Andrii Pilshchykov. He was among those who helped Ukraine survive the first terrible days of the invasion. He made significant strides in ensuring that F-16s join the defense of Ukraine’s skies. Unfortunately, he didn’t live to see the fulfillment of his dream.

Rest in peace, Juice. You started this journey; your brothers and sisters will finish it. Ukraine will be free. Ukraine will join NATO. Ukraine’s skies will be safeguarded by the most modern jets.
📸 Efrem Lukatsky

– Just a bit longer, and this plane will arrive.
– Promise me that I'll take a loop in the first plane. I'll rise instead of him.

Juice's mother speaks at the farewell ceremony to Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk. This is what F-16 means. pic.twitter.com/YXRFsPRA6F

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) August 29, 2023

Rest in Peace pilot pic.twitter.com/VMh9V0tbvH

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) August 29, 2023

Lord, guard and guide the men fly
Through the great spaces in the sky.
Be with them always in the air,
In darkening storms or sunlight fair;
Oh, hear us when we lift our prayer,
For those in peril in the air!
Mary C. D. Hamilton (1915)

Robotyne:

Tatarigami has a detailed thread replying to the Blackbird Group’s detailed thread about the Russian defenses in the south of Ukraine. I’m not using the Thread Reader App because it only unrolled through the 9th tweet.

Impressive thread was done by the @Black_BirdGroup about defenses in the south. In relation to this subject, I'd like to add additional insights and context. My intention is not to critique their presented report, but to emphasize crucial details that need to be added. 🧵Thread pic.twitter.com/ZkYrRjO9Ab

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) August 29, 2023

3/ In my perspective, this tendency can be attributed to the Streetlight effect – an observational bias wherein people exclusively search where it's easiest to look. In the context of satellite imagery, this translates to focusing on only visible defense structures. pic.twitter.com/bBJCE0E1dF

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) August 29, 2023

5/ In this short timelapse video spanning from May to August, I've highlighted fortified zones that mappers often chart. However, by looking at damages it's evident that the true theater of combat was across all tree lines visible in the area. pic.twitter.com/25EsI49HAo

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) August 29, 2023

7/ This distinction holds significant weight, as statements such as "Ukrainian forces haven't reached the first line of defense" could be misleading. In reality, our forces have gained control over numerous tree lines that constitute major defensive formations. pic.twitter.com/G3FdGqeBta

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) August 29, 2023

9/ In this final clip north of Robotyne, most tree lines have been heavily shelled due to intense battles fought over each one, making this hidden defensive formation more important than the widely discussed mapped lines. pic.twitter.com/FkiM1TVFuE

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) August 29, 2023

11/ I'd like to retract my comment about 20 minutes. Using "20 minutes" might come across as dismissive considering the complexity of the battle. My intention was to highlight that unmanned or undermanned positions aren’t the biggest issue, but "20 mins" is incorrect statement.

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) August 29, 2023

Orikhiv-Robotyne Axis:

SCALE UPDATE: pic.twitter.com/oy2rbilKx5

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) August 29, 2023

Bakhmut:

BAKHMUT AXIS /1800 UTC 29 AUG/ UKR reports RU is using chemical agents (likely a CS variant) in the vicinity of Andrivka. Russian air & artillery strikes reported throughout Bakhmut AO. pic.twitter.com/tYY8GqyWrL

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) August 29, 2023

Velyka Novosilka:

VELYKA NOVOSILKA /2000 UTC 29 AUG/ UKR forces accept the surrender of a group of Russian troops at Zavitne Bazhanya. Heavy fighting continues along
T-05-18 HWY / Mokri Valley axis. pic.twitter.com/f4pMjmYoGl

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) August 29, 2023

Pskov, Russia:

DEVELOPING: First reports indicate that the attack was conducted by UAVs on the Russian air base base at Kresty. The base is home to the VDV's 76th Air Assault Division and the 334th military transport regiment of the Russian airspace forces.

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) August 29, 2023

Reports of explosions near the airport in Pskov in Russia coming in. pic.twitter.com/DLyaFAlt4A

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) August 29, 2023

It is reported two Russian planes are damaged although we have no visual confirmation yet. Explosions are still happening. pic.twitter.com/QJtCw3EFh5

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) August 29, 2023

It is reported that 4 Il-76 aircraft were damaged in Pskov after a drone attack, local emergency services allegedly said.

Secondary detonations are still heard. Russian media write that a total of 15 drones attacked the airport. pic.twitter.com/D7FPqeiQWz

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) August 29, 2023

It is reported new explosions occured near Pskov airport. pic.twitter.com/79Y1mw2PgJ

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) August 29, 2023

For Omnes:

The M109 self-propelled howitzer is effectively serving in the 14th Mechanized Brigade named after Prince Roman the Great. It destroys enemy manpower, armored vehicles, and — this is a unique case — even somehow shot down a helicopter. pic.twitter.com/DJ116ATlZe

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 29, 2023

And for you enthusiasts of Russian military equipment going boom:

Watch what mushrooms Ukrainian soldiers have learned to grow from russian howitzers 2S19 Msta-S. Occupiers. Bon appétit! pic.twitter.com/DKd3635Bcm

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 29, 2023

Touch not the cat bot a glove!

Nearly 3 months of the most intense and brutal Russian propaganda, thousands of photos from hundreds of angles, and just 5 of 71 Leopards provided to Ukraine were destroyed, with no crew losses.

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) August 29, 2023

The Biden administration has announced another tranche of military aide for Ukraine:

RELEASE
IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine
Aug. 29, 2023

Today, the Department of Defense (DoD) announced additional security assistance to meet Ukraine’s critical security and defense needs. This announcement is the Biden Administration’s forty-fifth tranche of equipment to be provided from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021. It includes additional air defense and artillery munitions, mine clearing equipment, medical vehicles, and other equipment to help Ukraine counter Russia’s ongoing war of aggression on the battlefield and protect its people.

The capabilities in this package, valued at up to $250 million, include:

  • AIM-9M missiles for air defense;
  • Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
  • 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds;
  • Mine clearing equipment;
  • Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
  • Javelin and other anti-armor systems and rockets;
  • Hydra-70 Rockets;
  • Over 3 million rounds of small arms ammunition;
  • Armored medical treatment vehicles and High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicle (HMMWV) ambulances;
  • Demolitions munitions for obstacle clearing; and
  • Spare parts, maintenance, and other field equipment.

This security assistance package will utilize assistance previously authorized under Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) for Ukraine that remained after the PDA revaluation process concluded in June.

The United States will continue to work with its Allies and partners to provide Ukraine with capabilities to meet its immediate battlefield needs and longer-term security assistance requirements.

Long-term and steady supplies are the basis of any military operation. America’s support of the #UAarmy, which continues to defend its country from russian aggression in the largest war of our century, has not waned.
Thank you to my friend @SecDef Lloyd J. Austin III for another… pic.twitter.com/MxPmge0w9K

— Oleksii Reznikov (@oleksiireznikov) August 29, 2023

Long-term and steady supplies are the basis of any military operation. America’s support of the #UAarmy, which continues to defend its country from russian aggression in the largest war of our century, has not waned.
Thank you to my friend @SecDef Lloyd J. Austin III for another package of security assistance!

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

I’ve sent a small present to a close friend of Ukraine @MelSimmonsFCDO . Thank you for everything you do and will do for our country 🇺🇦👅 https://t.co/xW1fzxTYHb

— Patron (@PatronDsns) August 29, 2023

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok!

@patron__dsns

Та й таке :))

♬ original sound – MORE ENERGY 😎

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

And that :))

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 552: the Anniversary of Russia’s War Crime in IlovaiskPost + Comments (63)

Tuesday Evening Open Thread: Spare A Positive Thought for Florida…

by Anne Laurie|  August 29, 20236:17 pm| 90 Comments

This post is in: Climate Change, How about that weather?, Open Threads

LIVE update from Cedar Key, Florida with thunderstorms well in advance of Hurricane #Idalia that is intensifying rapidly over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. A record 15 feet storm surge is expected throughout the nature coast. Stay safe everyone. Hurricane Idalia will be… pic.twitter.com/RZ0X9CiWLW

— Reed Timmer, PhD (@ReedTimmerAccu) August 29, 2023

August, come she must…

Earlier this afternoon, we used our new FloodFX Simulation technology to show what nine feet of #Idalia storm surge would look like in Cedar Key, Florida, where is stationed: pic.twitter.com/db70HozyIx

— The Weather Channel (@weatherchannel) August 29, 2023

This is what storm surge in Cedar Key will look like tonight. You cannot survive it.

Check on friends and family in the area, make sure they leave https://t.co/fOD8Qw5CvZ

— Brendon Leslie (@BrendonLeslie) August 29, 2023

Tuesday Evening Open Thread: Spare A Positive Thought for Florida…Post + Comments (90)

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