• Menu
  • Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar

Before Header

  • About Us
  • Lexicon
  • Contact Us
  • Our Store
  • ↑
  • ↓

Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

They are lying in pursuit of an agenda.

Usually wrong but never in doubt

To the privileged, equality seems like oppression.

… riddled with inexplicable and elementary errors of law and fact

I have other things to bitch about but those will have to wait.

Is trump is trying to break black America over his knee? signs point to ‘yes’.

We can’t confuse what’s necessary to win elections with the policies that we want to implement when we do.

Do we throw up our hands or do we roll up our sleeves? (hint, door #2)

The real work of an opposition party is to oppose.

Republican also-rans: four mules fighting over a turnip.

This really is a full service blog.

Oh FFS you might as well trust a 6-year-old with a flamethrower.

Giving in to doom is how we fail to fight for ourselves & one another.

If you still can’t see these things even now, maybe politics isn’t your forte and you should stop writing about it.

That meeting sounds like a shotgun wedding between a shitshow and a clusterfuck.

Republicans: “Abortion is murder but you can take a bus to get one.” Easy peasy.

Authoritarian republicans are opposed to freedom for the rest of us.

Let me file that under fuck it.

It’s pointless to bring up problems that can only be solved with a time machine.

A sufficient plurality of insane, greedy people can tank any democratic system ever devised, apparently.

Today’s gop: why go just far enough when too far is right there?

Hey Washington Post, “Democracy Dies in Darkness” was supposed to be a warning, not a mission statement.

Let’s delete this post and never speak of this again.

Let’s bury these fuckers at the polls 2 years from now.

Mobile Menu

  • 4 Directions VA 2025 Raffle
  • 2025 Activism
  • Donate with Venmo, Zelle & PayPal
  • Site Feedback
  • War in Ukraine
  • Submit Photos to On the Road
  • Politics
  • On The Road
  • Open Threads
  • Topics
  • Authors
  • About Us
  • Contact Us
  • Lexicon
  • Our Store
  • Politics
  • Open Threads
  • 2025 Activism
  • Garden Chats
  • On The Road
  • Targeted Fundraising!
Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

Open Threads

You are here: Home / Archives for Open Threads

Pre-Dawn Darkness Open Thread

by Betty Cracker|  July 10, 20234:19 am| 42 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Politics, Republican Stupidity

Rolling Stone has a couple of uplifting stories about Repubs in disarray. First, a report from Michigan, where Repubs are stumbling around in a rage-fog after losing the statehouse for the first time in several decades:

James Chapman, a Republican from Wayne County, told the paper he traveled to the city of Clare to join the party meeting at the Doherty Hotel. But the meeting was reserved for members of the state committee. So Chapman said that he and others gathered outside the meeting location and recited the Pledge of Allegiance. He also said that he attempted to open a door to the meeting room by jiggling the doorknob.

Mark DeYoung, who chairs the Clare County Republican Party, said he heard Chapman’s attempt to enter the room and opened the door after seeing someone flip him the bird through a window. “He kicked me in my balls as soon as I opened the door,” DeYoung said of Chapman, speaking to The Detroit News by phone from the emergency room.

The recipient of the swift kick to the stones is pressing charges. Rolling Stone noted that this isn’t even the first time Michigan Repubs got physical with each other this year.

Kalamazoo Republican Party Chair Kelly Sackett and Macomb County GOP Secretary Melissa Pehlis engaged in what appears to be a drunken slap-fight at a party event a few months ago.

Thanks to valued commenter twbrandt for flagging the latest MI GOP beclowning in an earlier thread.

Next up in Rolling Stone, even Maria Bartiromo of Fox News wants answers about the flailing DeSantis campaign. A tireless Repub fluffer and reliable pitcher of the softest of softballs, Bartiromo confronted the candidate directly on her program yesterday:

“You’ve done a great job pushing back against woke. We know that,” Fox News host Maria Bartiromo said to DeSantis during Sunday Morning Futures. “But I’m wondering what’s going on with your campaign. There was a lot of optimism about you running for president earlier in the year, but here’s this weekend’s headline from Politico Playbook: ‘Failure to launch. Florida governor Ron DeSantis’ campaign to topple Donald Trump has stalled. “We are way behind,” says a top DeSantis PAC official, sounding the alarm.’ What happened?”

DeSantis promptly bit the hand that fed him, blaming the “corporate media” that built him up for the precipitous polling decline that not-coincidentally commenced when the candidate started interacting directly with voters. Then, in a head-scratching non sequitur, DeSantis criticized Donald Trump for standing by as president while his own government agencies were “colluding with big tech.”

Wait, what? Oh well. At least no Repub got kicked in the junk on Fox News. (Yet.)

Open thread.

Pre-Dawn Darkness Open ThreadPost + Comments (42)

Sunday Evening Open Thread: But What If Grifting BitCoin Is Part of RFK Jr’s *Sincere Religious Belief*?

by Anne Laurie|  July 9, 20236:49 pm| 77 Comments

This post is in: 2024 Primaries, Excellent Links, Grifters Gonna Grift

Note the date on this tweet:

OH: “RFK is a shitcoin VC’s can pump, it’s not more complicated than that.”

— Conor Sen (@conorsen) June 21, 2023


(Translation — Overheard: ‘RFK Jr is a venture capitalist’s meat puppet for a pump & dump scheme involving a nonviable / imaginary bitcoin.’)

And the following one:

NEW: @RobertKennedyJr told the biggest #bitcoin conference that he was not an investor into the cryptocurrency and then called on people to give to his campaign in bitcoin
His financial disclosure says he and his family are bitcoin investors- up to $250k.https://t.co/QOaRZrDSsA

— Brian Schwartz (@schwartzbCNBC) July 7, 2023

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a Democratic candidate for president, stood at the world’s biggest bitcoin conference in Miami in May and told the crowd, “I am not an investor and I am not here to give investment advice.” Then he announced he would be accepting campaign donations in bitcoin.

What Kennedy didn’t tell the crowd was that his family had invested in bitcoin recently, according to a financial disclosure form he filed June 30. On the twelfth page of the report, Kennedy lists a brokerage account that held between $100,001 and $250,000 worth of bitcoin. Hours after publication of this story, Kennedy’s campaign manager, former Democratic Rep. Dennis Kucinich, told CNBC that the bitcoin purchase was made after the speech in Miami and before the June 30 filing deadline…

show full post on front page

It’s complicated!…

NEWS: File this under “you got to be kidding me”

Now the @RobertKennedyJr campaign is telling me they were “mistaken” in their last statement and the over $100,000 #bitcoin investment is held by Kennedy himself, not @CherylHines.

Happy Friday! https://t.co/QOaRZrDSsA https://t.co/LlYJnbQXo7

— Brian Schwartz (@schwartzbCNBC) July 7, 2023

He just… the product sold itself, if you understand his mindset…

… After Kennedy’s appearance in May at the Miami conference, CNBC inquired whether Kennedy had any crypto holdings. “Mr. Kennedy has no crypto holdings,” a spokeswoman for the campaign said at the time.

Kennedy said at the conference that if he were to become president he would “make sure that your right to hold and use bitcoin is inviolable.”

President Joe Biden’s administration has waged an aggressive fight in regards to cryptocurrencies. Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler told CNBC in June “we don’t need more digital currency” after the SEC sued crypto exchange Coinbase for allegedly acting as an unregistered broker and exchange…

Kennedy’s pro-bitcoin stance has aligned him with several top tech investors, such as billionaire and bitcoin enthusiast Jack Dorsey, with several of them offering support for his presidential run. Others include David Sacks, Chamath Palihapitiya and Omeed Malik…

Yeah, that certainly tracks.

Kennedy, who has come under fire for spreading misinformation about vaccines at large, has a history of boosting bitcoin. His nonprofit, Children’s Health Defense, also has an interest in cryptocurrencies.

Their 2021 tax records shows under the “investments” section that the group had crypto valued at over $78,000. A spokeswoman for CHD, which reportedly played a key role in pushing back on Covid vaccines and helping elevate Kennedy’s profile before he ran for president, previously told CNBC that the cryptocurrencies listed were not “investments” but, in fact, “donations.” The CHD website shows that bitcoin is one of the accepted cryptocurrencies to donate toward the nonprofit group…

Like Lori Smith, the ‘303 Creative‘ using her non-existent website-design business with a non-existent client to punish actual existent LGBTQ+ individuals, about certain things RFK Jr is very religious.

Other RFJ Jr stories worth perusing:

Ed Kilgore, at NYMag — “Democrats Shouldn’t Ignore RFK Jr. They Should Expose Him”:

… [I]gnoring RFK Jr. won’t starve his candidacy to death. But exposing him for what he is — not a real Democrat — could effectively cap his vote while forcing the mainstream media to stop treating him as a legitimate Democratic candidate. He should be regarded as a pest doing the bidding of the opposing party.

That means constantly calling out Kennedy for the abovementioned coziness with conservative-media figures and for his substantive points of agreement with the less savory elements of the American right. RFK Jr. is set to address Moms for Liberty, the extremist “parental rights” group, at an event next week along with Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, and an assortment of hard-core right-wing conspiracy theorists…

The man’s views simply aren’t those of a Democrat’s circa 2024. Even Democratic primary voters unhappy with Biden do not want to help produce a Trump or DeSantis presidency in 2024. Democratic messaging should make it clear that every vote for Kennedy generates smiles in Tallahassee, the fever swamps of the right-wing internet, and at Mar-a-Lago.

Any campaign to expose and discredit RFK Jr. should focus on a particular risk: that he could win, or at least put up headline-grabbing numbers, in a rogue New Hampshire primary that won’t include Biden. New Hampshire law traps Democrats into a first-in-the-nation primary date that defies the national party’s plan to start the 2024 nomination process in South Carolina. Without question, the president and party leader who created the new calendar cannot appear on the New Hampshire ballot or campaign there. So the key thing for Democrats nationally is to relentlessly pound away at the assertion that the nominating contest begins in whatever state’s primary Biden first enters (probably South Carolina’s). Fox News may celebrate a Kennedy win or near win in the Granite State. That should be regarded as spin or the kind of conspiracy RFK Jr. often embraces.

I hope Democrats & Independents are smart enough to see through this GOP ploy to peel off a few votes from Joe Biden. Don’t be fooled. This is a cynical joke, not a serious candidate. Of Course the Right Has Welcomed RFK Jr. With Open Arms | Vanity Fair https://t.co/SOiFL3xSpA

— Jeanne Mann (@Jeanne_Mann) June 21, 2023

Molly Jong-Fast, for Vanity Fair — “Of Course the Right Has Welcomed RFK Jr. With Open Arms”:

… For years RFK Jr. has lurked in the shadows as the anti-vaxxer Kennedy; now his politics not only have a base among the MAGA right—he’s proving politically expedient for Republicans as well.

In an April profile, reporter Brandy Zadrozny asks the nepo-candidate, “So why not run as a Republican?”

“Because I’m a Democrat,” he says.

“But maybe you’re not?” I say.

Kennedy looks annoyed. He says the swell in right-wing support is evidence that not he, but his party, has changed.

It’s peculiar logic; shouldn’t having right-wing support indicate that he is in fact a right-winger—not that the right wing is the true Democratic Party? His campaign manager, former Ohio representative Dennis Kucinich, goes on to explain the fringe support as a feature, not a bug—if he can win all the people on the margins both on the left and the right of the political spectrum, maybe he can scrape something together, Kucinich suggests. Maybe not, but perhaps—as Republicans appear to be hoping for—he can spoil the race for Biden.

His candidacy in the Democratic primary has already been declared a “headache” for Biden…

[By the FTFNYTimes, of course.]
 
Republicans are worried; they know that indictments don’t help grow the electorate. They know that as the chasm between the mainstream and the primary voters grows, so do the chances of a Biden reelection. There are few options left to help pump up their guy. RFK Jr. is one.

Sunday Evening Open Thread: But What If <del>Grifting</del> BitCoin Is Part of RFK Jr’s *Sincere Religious Belief*?Post + Comments (77)

War for Ukraine Day 501: Never Missing an Opportunity to Miss an Opportunity

by Adam L Silverman|  July 9, 20235:53 pm| 93 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

We value every life, remember history and defend freedom together – address by the President of Ukraine

9 July 2023 – 17:04

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Today I am in Lutsk with the team.

In the morning I met with Mr. President of Poland Duda. A conversation with him. A prayer service. There were representatives of all denominations and religious communities… In the Lutsk church. Together with Andrzej, we honored the memory of all the victims in Volyn. We value every life, remember history, and defend freedom together.

Here in Lutsk, in Lubart’s castle, I held a long meeting today on the situation in the region – security, the situation on the border, the situation in the border areas of neighboring Belarus… The priority is to reinforce each region, our entire northern border. There were reports from the military, law enforcers, and local authorities. We analyzed the training and supply of our Defense and Security Forces and relevant units in Volyn. There was a report on the social situation in the region, the needs of people. Energy, water supply, budgetary support – both for people and for the social sphere. The state of the shelters. Jobs in the region. The state supports and will continue to support as much as possible. And I am grateful to everyone here in Lutsk, to everyone in other cities and communities of the region where IDPs have been accommodated, where people help in the treatment and rehabilitation of our warriors… Thank you!

The frontline, our active actions.

This week we have a lot to be grateful for to the warriors of our 3rd separate assault brigade, the 24th separate mechanized brigade, the paratroopers of the “Eightieth”… Well done, warriors!

In the Tavria direction, as always, the paratroopers of the “Seventy-Ninth”, the artillerymen of the 55th separate brigade “Zaporizhzhia Sich”, the 74th separate reconnaissance battalion and the 59th separate motorized infantry brigade distinguished themselves with power, courage and accuracy… I want to thank you!

I would like to mention a warrior of the Zaporizhzhia Sich brigade, Major Volodymyr Honcharov. Thank you, Volodymyr! Sailor Serhiy Komar – 35th separate marine brigade – thank you, Serhiy! Soldier Oleksiy Labenets, a rifleman of the security battalion of the 15th transport aviation brigade. Thank you, Oleksiy! Artillerymen of the “Magura”, the 47th separate mechanized brigade – Major Anton

Cherevko and Senior Lieutenant Vasyl Abramiv. Thank you, guys!

Thank you to everyone who is fighting and working for Ukraine! Thank you to everyone in the world who helps!

Thank you, Lutsk, for this day!

Glory to Ukraine!

The war is to be over with justice and peace and with us regaining our territorial integrity. Why? Because the end of the hot stage of the war and freezing the conflict would not mean the end of the war.

Why is it still not obvious to everyone? pic.twitter.com/yKsrJiAuoE

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) July 9, 2023

President Biden sat down for an interview with documented plagiarist and fabulist Fareed Zakaria of CNN ahead of the NATO summit in Vilnius. In regard to documented plagiarist and fabulist Fareed Zakaria’s question regarding NATO membership for Ukraine, it would have been better to have said we’re in the middle of very delicate and important negotiations with our allies and partners including Ukraine, I’m not going to make those discussions public, but I will say we are committed to Ukraine’s liberation and safety. Instead we got this:

EXCLUSIVE: Biden says Ukraine is not yet ready for NATO membership, saying the war with Russia must end before the alliance can consider adding Kyiv to its ranks. https://t.co/iNx84Zc7r4 pic.twitter.com/z0Ejf6SZlU

— CNN (@CNN) July 9, 2023

From The Financial Times:

The US and Germany are under intense pressure from other allies to show greater support for Ukraine’s eventual membership of Nato, just days before the military alliance’s leaders meet in Lithuania.

Washington and Berlin have backed a form of words for the summit’s concluding statement that does not fully endorse a “pathway” to Nato membership, let alone invite Kyiv to join once the war is over — as demanded by Ukraine’s staunchest supporters in eastern Europe.

Other members of the alliance were caught off-guard by the “conservative” US and German stance, officials briefed on the talks told the Financial Times.

On Sunday US president Joe Biden doused Kyiv’s hopes of a breakthrough on membership, saying he did not think Ukraine was ready.

“I think we have to lay out a rational path for Ukraine to be able to qualify to get into Nato,” Biden told CNN. It was “premature” to “call for a vote . . . now”, he added “because there’s other qualifications that need to be met, including democratisation and some of those issues”.

Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy is invited to the summit, which will take place in Vilnius on Tuesday and Wednesday. He has threatened not to attend if Nato does not signal concrete progress from a 2008 statement that merely said Ukraine “would become” a member.

Zelenskyy told ABC on Sunday: “It’s all a matter of political will just to find the proper wording and invite Ukraine.”

The differences threaten to overshadow progress on separate long-term security assurances for Kyiv. The UK, France, Germany, the US and other allies are aiming to announce a broad agreement at the summit, two officials briefed on the plans told the FT.

The proposal would create a multilateral framework under which countries could set up bilateral pledges of military and financial support. However, it could be delayed until after the summit, they added.

Negotiations on Sunday among Nato ambassadors failed to reach a compromise on the text of the leaders’ statement, officials said, adding that it was likely the leaders themselves would finalise it at the summit.

“[The majority] wants to have this notion of a political decision in the communique,” said one person briefed on the negotiations. “The others worry about automaticity.”

Those pushing for a clear pathway for Kyiv’s membership argue that anything less would imply Nato was ignoring Ukraine’s pleas for postwar protection under the alliance’s Article 5 mutual-defence clause, and would help Russian leader Vladimir Putin achieve one of his stated goals of the invasion: to block the country’s entry to the alliance.

But opponents, led by Germany and the US, say Nato cannot agree to anything that appears to suggest Ukraine is on an inevitable path to membership without first meeting rigorous standards on governance, military standards and weaponry, and that the alliance cannot commit to anything without knowing how the war will end, or when.

“Holding Nato together is really critical,” Biden told CNN. “I don’t think there is unanimity in Nato about whether or not to bring Ukraine into the Nato family now, at this moment, in the middle of a war.”

US national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters on Sunday travelling with the president en route to London that Ukraine’s Nato allies will discuss “where we go from here” with respect to reforms required of Kyiv to eventually join the alliance.

“There’s work being done on the Nato communique, on the language relative to Ukraine’s desire to seek membership in Nato. I think we will see the allies come to consensus on that as we head into Vilnius and it will among other things talk about a process for continuing to work through those reforms,” he said.

All this does is further encourage Putin in his genocidal quest to take Ukraine. It functionally cedes control over the decision making regarding who gets to join NATO to Putin. As we’ve seen in 2008 and 2014 was that he was able to basically set conditions fifteen and nine years in advance to prevent states from being considered for NATO admission by creating contested borders with and frozen conflicts inside Georgia and Ukraine by invading under cover of protecting ethnic Russian communities in both countries. Before anyone starts, I am well aware that Ukraine has a lot of post-war work to do to meet all the other necessary standards. Georgia is even farther behind. But parts of the reason they are both where they are politically, economically, and socially is because Putin was able to exercise control over their politics, government, governance, economics, political economy, and society by scarfing pieces up. You cannot honestly tell me with a straight face that Hungary, Turkey, or even Poland are really in full compliance with all the political, economic, and social reforms that are being cited as the reasons for why it is premature to formally announce that Ukraine will join NATO and delineate an exception to policy process to do so.

The same mistakes, which empower and encourage Putin and demoralize our allies and partners, and more importantly the Ukrainians, keep being repeated over and over and over again.

Here’s some reactions from within Ukraine. First from Olena Halushka, a board member of the Anti-Corruption Action Center and co-founder of the International Centre for Ukrainian Victory:

10 reasons Ukraine should get an invitation to NATO in Vilnius:
1) russia is provoked by weakness, not strength. Time for NATO to act firmly;
2) ending of the gray zones policies which failed to ensure sustainable peace in Europe;
3) ending of actual russian veto over NATO… pic.twitter.com/FzZgCUL3wK

— Olena Halushka (@OlenaHalushka) July 9, 2023

Here’s the full text of her tweet:

10 reasons Ukraine should get an invitation to NATO in Vilnius:
1) russia is provoked by weakness, not strength. Time for NATO to act firmly;
2) ending of the gray zones policies which failed to ensure sustainable peace in Europe;
3) ending of actual russian veto over NATO enlargement, incl via waging wars/occupying parts of other states;
4) Ukraine’s resistance is effectively protecting NATO’s eastern flank and prevents russia from attacking other states;
5) practically, the invitation isn’t changing much for NATO, it *doesn’t trigger article 5*, while gives Ukraine many practical tools, incl for security and defence reforms advocacy;
6) Ukraine’s interoperability with NATO advanced significantly over the last year. Moreover, Ukraine tests modern NATO weapons in action;
7) a message to encourage Ukraine’s defenders amidst the ongoing difficult counteroffensive;
8) a message to millions of refugees to plan their lives long-term in Ukraine;
9) a message to Western businesses who consider investing in Ukraine’s recovery to get prepared;
10) clear statement that Ukraine’s NATO membership won’t be a bargaining chip w terrorist putin.
Feel free to add more in the replies
#UkraineNATOnow

Alyona Getmanchuk, the Director of the New Europe Center in Kyiv, has published this response via op-ed at The New York Times: (emphasis mine)

KYIV, Ukraine — For decades, discussions about whether or not Ukraine should be admitted to NATO have revolved around the risks — to both Ukraine and member nations — of Ukraine being in the alliance. And at the core of those risks had been one overriding fear: that Ukraine’s membership might push President Vladimir Putin of Russia into a corner, prompting him to escalate his war.

The question of Ukraine’s potential NATO membership has been revived once again as the bloc’s summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, approaches this week, and Ukraine has stated its ambition to the leaders gathering there to be granted a political invitation to join.

To be clear, Ukraine is not asking for immediate NATO membership. The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky now acknowledges that it should join after the war ends, and doesn’t want to drag NATO members into its war with Russia by invoking Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. What Ukraine wants is a political invitation that will end the so-called “strategic ambiguity” at play since the 2008 NATO summit in Bucharest, Romania, where the alliance decided Ukraine should eventually become a member but offered no clear path for it to do so. By giving Ukraine a destination but no itinerary, NATO left the nation uniquely vulnerable and ultimately opened the door for Mr. Putin’s invasions.

Now, as in previous years, the hand-wringing over the attendant risks of inviting Ukraine into NATO has cropped up again. And again, it is focused on the danger of further provoking Mr. Putin.

But for the 78 percent of Ukrainians who have close relatives or friends who have been killed or wounded in Mr. Putin’s war, and for those who suffer from continuous Russian missile and drone strikes, this argument sounds ridiculous.

And any thought of keeping Ukraine out of NATO to forestall further Russian aggression makes no sense. Mr. Putin threatened to dip into his nuclear arsenal long before Ukraine requested a political invitation at Vilnius, and he will continue to do so regardless of whatever decision is made there. Perhaps more to the point, nobody is more reluctant to escalate Russia’s war against Ukraine into World War III than Mr. Putin himself. The Russian Army has no chance in a military confrontation with NATO; it is barely coping with the armed forces of Ukraine.

So what about the risks of not inviting Ukraine to join NATO?

Anything except a political invitation for Ukraine at Vilnius will surely be perceived by Mr. Putin as a victory, allowing him to retain his de facto veto on the process of NATO enlargement and giving him confirmation that his policy of waging wars and occupying other countries to prevent them from joining works. As long as Ukraine remains in NATO limbo, Putin will attack Ukraine again and again with the hope of creating a new Russian Empire. There is no better insurance for Ukraine against new attacks than the guarantee of future NATO membership.

Further delaying the decision will also have a negative impact on the democratic transformations underway inside Ukraine. While Ukraine is required to conduct some of these reforms as part of its accession to the European Union, such as strengthening its judiciary and anti-corruption measures, others, like moving Ukraine’s military under civilian control, are more likely to succeed if they are included as a precondition to joining NATO. If that process stalls, NATO might face the reality of a million-strong army operating indefinitely outside full democratic civilian control. The army, which is emerging as one of the strongest at the European continent and the only one with recent battlefield experience fighting Russia, should be a part of the collective security structure, not acting alone.

Finally, should NATO members fail to act this week on Ukraine, the alliance will be discredited in the eyes of Ukrainians and millions of other residents of NATO member states who support inviting Ukraine to join. According to a recent opinion poll, 70 percent of Americans, 56 percent of the French and 55 percent of Dutch citizens who expressed opinions on Ukraine’s NATO membership support the idea of inviting Ukraine into NATO in Vilnius this week, even if some of them would prefer actual accession to happen after the war.

Maintaining the status quo will send the wrong signal to the Ukrainian mothers of teenage boys, who are frightened about having to send their sons into a series of endless conflicts with Russia. It would demotivate Ukrainian soldiers who are already fighting in extremely difficult conditions to liberate Ukrainian land. It would scare away investors who might be interested in participating in Ukraine’s postwar reconstruction. And it would discourage the millions of Ukrainian refugees who consider a commitment on Ukraine’s future membership as the only solid precondition for them to consider returning home.

Some reluctant NATO leaders might say that they don’t have anything against Ukraine’s invitation to the alliance in general, but the timing is not right. But is there any such thing as perfect timing? Next year, at the Washington NATO summit while the United States is in the midst of a presidential campaign? That seems doubtful.

Ukraine’s bid for NATO membership will not go away. Ukraine will be knocking at NATO’s door again and again to remind Western capitals that it was precisely their fear of escalation from Putin’s side that led to Europe’s largest war since World War II.

America put an end to Mr. Putin’s plans to recreate a Russian empire by helping Ukraine to defend itself. Now it’s time to bury Moscow’s imperialist dreams. There is no better way to do it than by granting Ukraine a political invitation to join NATO in Vilnius now.

I cannot speak and will not speak for the Ukrainians, but I am demoralized by the US national command authority’s reasoning and actions regarding this matter.

Bakhmut:

BAKHMUT /1700 UTC 9 JUL/ UKR forces conducted offensive ops N of Soledar; frontline sources report that UKR units are in contact 2.5 Km north of Soledar.  Contact is also ongoing to the W & E of Yakolivka. UKR forces continue to be engaged on the hilltops overlooking the… pic.twitter.com/9OrQw2BAxs

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) July 9, 2023

BAKHMUT /1700 UTC 9 JUL/ UKR forces conducted offensive ops N of Soledar; frontline sources report that UKR units are in contact 2.5 Km north of Soledar.  Contact is also ongoing to the W & E of Yakolivka. UKR forces continue to be engaged on the hilltops overlooking the village of Klischiivka.

Video of the launch of the Javelin ATGM on the Russian T-80 (the same as in post attached). By the Poltava detachment "Centuria"https://t.co/NJBVg68zev https://t.co/skfwTWOK3o pic.twitter.com/duxbdYIyyb

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 9, 2023

Here’s the machine translation of the original tweet:

Two shots from “NLAW” and “Javelin”, and a T-80 Podor tank — for scrap metal. Aiming work of soldiers of the 3rd company of the anti-tank battalion of the Third Separate Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The outskirts of Bakhmut.

Blessed are Saints Javelin and NLAW.

Velyka Novosilka:

VELYKA NOVOSILKA /0145 UTC 9 JUL/ RU platoon / company sized elements conducted offensive ops east and west of the T-05-18 HWY. UKR forces remain in control of Rivnopil, but imagery suggests that RU forces advanced to reoccupy Pryiutne. UKR was also in contact W of… pic.twitter.com/WXY5vvfuHV

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) July 9, 2023

VELYKA NOVOSILKA /0145 UTC 9 JUL/ RU platoon / company sized elements conducted offensive ops east and west of the T-05-18 HWY. UKR forces remain in control of Rivnopil, but imagery suggests that RU forces advanced to reoccupy Pryiutne. UKR was also in contact W of Starornnaiorske. On the other side of the T-05-18 HWY, UKR broke up a Russian probe SE of Blahodatne.

Vinnystsya Oblast:

My Mom’s village in Vinnytsya oblast greets a fallen soldier, Roman Tsymbal.

Eternal glory to Ukraine’s defender! #StandWithUkraine pic.twitter.com/V0BQaEL4W3

— olexander scherba🇺🇦 (@olex_scherba) July 9, 2023

Zarichne:

Reportedly strikes on Russian hangars somewhere near Zarichne. https://t.co/VEj1WNw30A pic.twitter.com/bT95xzD5sH

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 9, 2023

Avdiivka:

/2. At the end of the video, approximately 5-6 different destroyed Russian IFVs and 1 tank are shown. pic.twitter.com/64pOT6YsaI

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 9, 2023

Russian occupied Crimea:

/2. Traces of activity of Russian air defense in the area of ​​the Crimean bridge. Russian media claim that the S-200 missile was intercepted pic.twitter.com/bzSXZWPSFL

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 9, 2023

DaVinci’s Wolves have put a captured Russian thermobaric system to good use!

The trophy russian Heavy Flamethrower System TOS-1A Solntsepyok is currently in service with the 67th Mechanized Brigade. Solar inferno for the occupiers on Ukrainian land.

📸 @libkos pic.twitter.com/lUk9XEMHZP

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 9, 2023

When it comes to thermobaric weapons, it’s a game two can play pic.twitter.com/KfUsKwwbCA

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) July 9, 2023

More footages of the captured Russian TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" in service with the famous Ukrainian unit "Da Vinci Wolves", 67 brigade
More footages on the unit’s official instagram profile – https://t.co/qRLiONd6Bm pic.twitter.com/pmhnoZyllx

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 9, 2023

Ukrainska Pravda has reported that according to The Wall Street Journal, Poland has quietly delivered a dozen or so Soviet produced Mi-24 Hind attack helicopters to Ukraine.

Poland has recently handed over about a dozen Soviet-made Mi-24 attack helicopters to Ukraine.

Source: The Wall Street Journal, citing their sources familiar with the matter, as reported by European Pravda

Details: The news agency reported that the transfer of the helicopters from Poland had not been publicly announced.

Meanwhile, according to the report, Ukraine’s air fleet remains small compared to that of Russia. Ukrainian aircraft also have less advanced guidance and protection systems.

The article says that Ukraine is making limited use of aircraft in order not to lose them.

Background: 

  • It has been reported that Czechia would provide Ukraine with additional attack helicopters. Last year, the country already supplied Ukraine with such aircraft.
  • In return, the country agreed to receive helicopters from the United States.

This morning, in the comments to last night’s post (did I mention that time travel gives me nose bleeds?), commenter AndoChronic asked:

Saw this article. Not sure what I think of it. Thoughts Adam?

For those not getting out of the boat, the article was published at Salon, is republished by agreement at MSN, and is by Chris Hedges. Most of it is based on a misreading of the factual material he links to in support of his argument that Ukraine’s entire defense against Russia’s genocidal re-invasion is a lie cooked up somewhere in the Washington, DC beltway or something and that the war was caused because of NATO expansion in the 00s. I’m not going to summarize any more of that tripe because it is factually and historically incorrect and it denies agency to everyone – the former Soviet states that sought NATO membership, the EU, NATO member states, Russia, Ukraine – except for the United States. That’s just not logically sustainable. He does, however, make one good point without intending to:

The playbook the pimps of war use to lure us into one military fiasco after another, including Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria and now Ukraine, does not change. Freedom and democracy are threatened. Evil must be vanquished. Human rights must be protected. The fate of Europe and NATO, along with a “rules-based international order” is at stake. Victory is assured.

Specifically:

Freedom and democracy are threatened. Evil must be vanquished. Human rights must be protected. The fate of Europe and NATO, along with a “rules-based international order” is at stake.

Victory is never assured, but there are ways to maximize the chances of achieving it. That said, in this case freedom, or rather liberty, and democracy are threatened. I don’t think anyone at this point is really going to try to argue with a straight face that Putin isn’t a tremendously bad actor even if we leave the judgement of whether he’s actually evil to the philosophers. Human rights not only must, but should be protected. Frankly, the need to do this does not excuse all the bad policies, strategies, planning, and implementation that brought us the failures in Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya. The Syria strategy was working until the Trump administration first warped it and then scrapped it all together once again abandoning our Kurdish allies. And, as I wrote about last night, without Ukraine’s stalwart defense against Russia’s genocidal re-invasion, the Russian military would now be perched on the borders of Poland, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia,  and Moldova. So yes, the fate of at least eastern Europe and the eastern members of NATO along with a rules based international order are, in fact, at stake.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

Here’s more on Patron, his team of Chernihiv sappers, and the attack on Balaklia.

From the Balaklian municipal government’s Telegram channel:

More details from Espresso News:

“We worked very effectively again in the Kharkiv region near Balakliya. This town is still suffering from rocket attacks. It was the same when we were there. I heard a whistle and a rumble, but I thought it was my colleagues who were going to detonate explosives. But for some reason, Mykhailo (the owner – ed.) quickly moved me to a shelter and covered me with his body. I realized it was a Russian rocket. Very close,” Patron wrote on his social media page.

On June 5, the Russian occupation army attacked Balakliya with Smerch MLRS. According to the head of the regional administration, Oleh Syniehubov, 1 person was killed and 9 others were injured.

Patron noted that his team has already returned home unharmed. And he once again emphasized how important it is to stay in shelters during an air raid alert and take your pets there.

Originally adopted as a companion dog, Patron (“bullet” in Ukrainian – ed.) is now a celebrity service dog who works with the State Emergency Service of Ukraine.

In the first months since the start of the Russian invasion, he helped to find more than 200 explosive devices.

Last year he was awarded a medal by President Zelenskyy. The dog has also become a symbol of Ukraine’s resistance against Russia.

Perhaps a new alternative verse to the US Navy hymn?

Eternal Deity, strong to save,

Those whose tails do bravely wave,

Who root and dig tenaciously,

And love cheese and rubber duckies.

It may need some work…

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok!

@patron__dsns

Коли ти серйозний пес, але тренд зняти всеодно хочеться😅

♬ original sound – 🕷️🕸️🕷️

Here the machine translation of the caption:

When you’re a serious dog, but you still want to shoot the trend 😅

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 501: Never Missing an Opportunity to Miss an OpportunityPost + Comments (93)

FL Dems vs. Bond Villains

by Betty Cracker|  July 9, 202310:24 am| 129 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., Elections 2024, Open Threads, Politics, Republican Stupidity

The Florida Democratic Party is holding its annual leadership conference this weekend at the fabulous Fontainebleau Hotel on Miami Beach, a location immortalized in the 1964 James Bond film Goldfinger.

As folks who follow Florida politics are aware, FL Dems have been a hot mess for more than two decades. Steve Schale wrote a pretty good explainer of how that came to be. For what it’s worth, I don’t agree with Schale on every point, and I think some of his analysis is self-serving.

But while it’s important to pinpoint the exact cause of a catastrophic crash, the gist in Schale’s account is mostly correct. The party definitely crashed, and there were lots of contributing factors. (“This is supposed to be a happy occasion! Let’s not bicker about who killed whom…”)

Anyhoo, after the latest electoral wipeout in 2022, the party’s incumbent leaders resigned in the time-honored manner, and following a contentious scrum, former ag commish and second-place 2022 gubernatorial primary finisher Nikki Fried was elected party chair.

Lots of folks are suspicious of Fried, a former pot lobbyist, and I understand why. But I found her “try something new” pitch persuasive in the 2022 primary and in her campaign for party chair. Desperate times, desperate measures, etc.

As noted here before, Fried takes an activist approach. She got arrested this spring while protesting the statehouse passage of the 6-week abortion ban and was filmed getting cuffed by the police while wearing a T-shirt with the slogan “JUST F*CKING VOTE!”

Fighting Dems in Florida
Photo credit: Alicia Devine, Tallahassee Democrat

Fried continued that JUST F*CKING VOTE theme at the Fontainebleau yesterday: (Orlando Sentinel)

In Fried’s view, DeSantis didn’t win by 19 points last year. “Florida Democrats lost by 19 points. And that is really on us,” she said.

DeSantis’ vote total didn’t increase substantially from 2018, she said. But Democratic turnout collapsed, and the party’s nominee Charlie Crist (who had defeated Fried in the for the nomination) received far fewer votes than the 2018 Democratic candidate.

Well, she’s right about that. We can piss and moan about stupid voters who require inspiration to show up when a monster like DeSantis is in office, and I’ll agree with every word of that, but if we want to erase that L, we’ve got to do what it takes to get them to the polls. Full stop.

According to The Sentinel, Fried also threw out the usual conference format, which has featured side gatherings of individual constituent groups on the first day, and mixed it up instead so different groups could learn from each other. There was talk about how to juice youth turnout, how to appeal to voters given the state’s complex demographics, etc.

Will the gathering at the Fontainebleau help Dems figure out how to more effectively oppose the man backed by the state’s many Bond villains — the highly subsidized Governor Oddjob — and defeat the many other evil creatures who are making life in the state increasingly intolerable? I have no freaking clue. But maybe they chose the right setting to hatch that plan.

Open thread!

PS: The Fontainebleau really is something special — it’s got a 1950s glamor that’s hard to capture in words. I helped a friend organize another friend’s birthday debauchery event there several years ago and was bowled over! And I’m usually not easy to impress! You shouldn’t give Florida your tourism dollars right now if you can avoid it, but if you can’t, you could do worse than the Fontainebleau.

PPS: It occurs to me that the glamor of Fontainebleau embodies a style that Trump tries and fails to achieve in his gold-plated South Florida dump. Whereas Trump hired a designer who vomited Liberace-themed schlock all over the good bones of the former Marjorie Merriweather Post estate, aiming for Versailles but achieving only tackiness, the Fontainebleau actually pulls it off!

FL Dems vs. Bond VillainsPost + Comments (129)

Sunday Morning Open Thread: The [SC(R)OTUS] Court Can’t Heal Itself

by Anne Laurie|  July 9, 20236:31 am| 123 Comments

This post is in: Activist Judges!, Excellent Links

Tune in on Sunday at 12pm ET for @jrpsaki's interview with Democratic National Committee Chair @harrisonjaime. pic.twitter.com/us3YJbt9Jn

— Inside with Jen Psaki (@InsideWithPsaki) July 7, 2023

Here’s an excellent article I’ve been waiting for the space / time to post. James Fallows, at his Substack — “The branch of government that depends most on trust cares least about preserving it. Now it’s up to Congress”:

… I have an absolutist “no surprises” approach when it comes to disclosing anything the audience might possibly find significant later on. The test is not whether you, personally, think your judgment might be affected. It is whether someone else might have wanted to consider the info.

And remember that this is for my own, non-consequential writing—which at most might affect how someone thinks about an issue, but which has zero legal or direct economic impact on anyone else. Perhaps I make these disclosures out of vanity: I’m afraid that if I hide some conflict and a reader later finds out, I’d look worse in the long run. But it’s a rule that I and many other writers observe.

How different this is from the Supreme Court.

The most powerful, least accountable figures in public life.

Here’s a summary of the paragraphs that follow:

– The nine lifetime-appointees on the US Supreme Court have more individual power than anyone else in US public life.

– Yet those nine members are under fewer formal controls on their ethics and possible conflicts than any (and I stress any) other federal official or employees, including those with purely clerical or administrative duties.

– The legitimacy of the Court therefore depends on the rest of us believing that those we trust with power are trustworthy.

– The current Court has shown that it is not.

– Therefore it is time for outside intervention, and supervision…

The nine members of the Supreme Court wield more individual power, less accountably, for a longer period, than anyone else in our public life…

show full post on front page

A serving president of course out-powers any other individual. But presidents are subject to re-election or impeachment. They are dissected in the press every day. Even for the most dominant, their time in command is limited.

The Supreme Court, by contrast? If even one of the five lifetime appointees who decided to stop the Florida recount in 2000, and thus award the presidential election to George W. Bush, had voted differently, tens of millions of lives would have changed.

The disastrous Iraq War would probably never have happened. The Supreme Court itself would presumably have had a lastingly different makeup. George W. Bush ultimately appointed John Roberts and Samuel Alito. Without the Bush v. Gore ruling, who knows who might have held those seats? The most recent Democratic president to appoint a Chief Justice was Harry Truman, in 1946. The most recent time the Court had a Democratic-appointed majority was at the end of Lyndon Johnson’s administration, before 2/3rds of today’s Americans were born. Since then, Republican presidents have appointed 13 justices; Democrats, five, although the national vote has gone strongly for Democrats in that time. This chanciness—of longevity, of circumstance—is something only a very lucky country could endure…

The Supreme Court relies on trust, and has incinerated its trust.

Its Chief may lack the will, and certainly lacks the power, to do anything to save the Court.

There is no remedy but the Congress. Thus I pay attention to Senator Sheldon Whitehouse and others. The “crisis of the courts” is that this court has failed. It needs outside help, from the rest of us.

Lots more fine argument at the link!

Sunday Morning Open Thread: <em>The [SC(R)OTUS] Court Can’t Heal Itself</em>Post + Comments (123)

Late Night Open Thread: PSA – Beware of Tesla ‘Drivers’

by Anne Laurie|  July 8, 202311:08 pm| 91 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., Open Threads, Tech News & Issues, Assholes

Tesla owners are using steering-wheel weights to drive hands-free – The Washington Post https://t.co/ThQhtNmGk6

— macewan ? (@macewan) July 7, 2023

As if you weren’t already… Per the Washington Post, “Tesla owners are using steering-wheel weights to drive hands-free” [Unpaywalled AppleNews link]:

SAN FRANCISCO — The devices are marketed for a variety of innocuous uses — a cellphone holder, for instance, or a safety hammer. One promises to relieve shoulder pain. Others ditch the pretext and list simply as “wheel weights” or “wheel knobs.”

Steering wheel weights have become a popular commodity as Tesla has expanded its “Full Self-Driving” technology from around 12,000 vehicles to more than 400,000 over the past year. While the electric car manufacturer has adopted measures to discourage their use, the devices have been involved in at least two recent traffic incidents.

In March, a Tesla plowed without slowing into a teenager getting off a school bus in North Carolina, police said, causing severe injuries. And in December, a driver in Germany fell asleep at the wheel while a Tesla in Autopilot led police on a chase at speeds reaching nearly 70 mph, Bavarian authorities said.

Tesla requires drivers to keep their hands on the steering wheel while using both of its driver-assistance systems — Autopilot, which can maneuver the cars from highway on-ramp to off-ramp, and Full Self-Driving, which can navigate city and residential streets without the driver’s physical input — and the systems are designed to issue periodic reminders. By replicating the pressure of a driver’s hands, the wheel weights silence the nagging.

“Elon Musk’s saying it’s supposed to drive itself. That’s what they’re going to hear,” said Carnegie Mellon University professor Philip Koopman, who has been studying autonomous vehicle safety for 25 years. “How do you think they’re going to behave?”

show full post on front page

As recently as Monday, sellers were marketing the devices widely on online shopping sites, including Alibaba’s AliExpress and Amazon, where they could be obtained in as little as a day. Wheel weights recently ranked as the top two releases in Amazon’s “automotive steering wheels” category. After The Washington Post flagged them, Amazon and Alibaba said they removed the listings, citing safety issues and violations of their policies…

The weights are not illegal, although federal regulators have cracked down on one such device, deeming it “unsafe.”…

Back when automobiles were first conquering American roads, there were countless tales of impaired / uncertain carriage drivers suffering because they could no longer count on their horse(s) to get the conveyance back to the home stable without human assistance. It’s been more than a century, but apparently there’s some kind of persistent folk memory that wants ‘unsupervised mode’ to work for them. And they bitterly resent anyone who disagrees with them!

. @Twitter has banned our recent FSD Beta video from being a paid Promoted tweet!

Free speech absolutist I think not?

Watch what Elon does not want you to see here: https://t.co/MpMVNTIHa7

It goes through “road closed” signs, hits a kid w dog then does a hit and run on Beta! pic.twitter.com/bsE9nLxLO4

— Aiaddict (@Aiaddict1) July 8, 2023

For posting independent YouTube content related to FSD Beta where my personal car crashed into a Bollard in Downtown San Jose (it went viral in Feb 2022) — not joking

— Aiaddict (@Aiaddict1) July 8, 2023

Ah yes, I remember! Sucks that happened. I don’t think that bodes well for your cause though. Motives have a way of clouding judgement for creators and viewers ?????. Even if you’re on to something, getting fired in relation to FSD takes all credibility. Dan has the same problem!

— Me Myself and I (@newberry94005) July 8, 2023

Late Night Open Thread: PSA – Beware of Tesla ‘Drivers’Post + Comments (91)

War for Ukraine Day 500: The Azovstal Commanders Come Home!

by Adam L Silverman|  July 8, 20237:57 pm| 66 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

The Azovstal defenders who had been paroled to Turkiye have been brought home!

.@ZelenskyyUa
We are returning home from Türkiye and bringing our heroes home.
Ukrainian soldiers Denys Prokopenko, Svyatoslav Palamar, Serhiy Volynsky, Oleh Khomenko, Denys Shleha. They will finally be with their relatives.
Glory to Ukraine!#Azovstal pic.twitter.com/QaKozSBe6W

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 8, 2023

Here’s the announcement of who was repatriated:

According to the negotiations with the Turkish side, Ukraine returned to their homeland the military – defenders of Azovstal: Commander of the Azov special operations unit of the National Guard, Hero of Ukraine Denys Prokopenko, his deputy Svyatoslav Palamar, acting Commander of the 36th Separate Marine Brigade Serhiy Volynsky, Senior Officer of the Azov unit Oleh Khomenko and Commander of the 12th Brigade of the National Guard Denys Shleha.

The soldiers were in Türkiye after being released from Russian captivity.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met the defenders at the Istanbul airport and congratulated them on their return.

“I congratulate you! You are our heroes. I am very glad of your return to your homeland. Glory to Ukraine!” the Head of State said.

On the plane, Zelenskyy talked with the defenders of Azovstal and thanked them for their courage and resilience.

Unfortunately over 700 of their Soldiers, Marines, Territorial Guardsmen, and police officers are still in Russian captivity:

Lest we forget that some 700 Azovstal garrison members are still in Russian captivity

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) July 8, 2023

Erdogan’s releasing these gentlemen is further evidence of the ongoing damage that continues to ripple outward from Prigozhin’s revolt. While I’m sure the negotiations to accomplish this return have been ongoing and underway for a while, Putin’s loss of face as a result of the events of 23 to 25 June most likely contributed to finalizing the deal.

President Zelenskyy went to Snake Island this morning where he paid respects to those who defended it and to those gave their last full measure there. His address today was made from there. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

Snake Island. The free island of free Ukraine – address of President on the morning of the 500th day of the war

8 July 2023 – 09:34

Dear Ukrainians, I wish you good health!

Today, we are on Snake Island – on our Snake Island, which will never be conquered by the occupier, like the whole of Ukraine because we are a country of the brave.

Today, we honored here our Ukrainian heroes – all the soldiers who fought for this island, who liberated it. And although this is a small piece of land in the middle of our Black Sea, it is a great proof that Ukraine will regain every bit of its territory.

I want to thank – from here, from this place of victory – each of our soldiers for these 500 days.

Our Armed Forces, our intelligence, the National Guard, our border guards, the Security Service of Ukraine, the National Police, our liaison officers, our people… I thank you! Thank you to everyone who fights for Ukraine!

And let the freedom that all our heroes of different times wanted for Ukraine and that must be won right now be a tribute to all those who gave their lives for Ukraine. We will definitely win! For sure!

Glory to Ukraine!

We are moving forward. Thank you to every one!

If anyone was looking for an indicator that the Russians do not have control of this part of the Black Sea, this trip to Snake Island was it.

Minister of Defense Reznikov’s statement really sums it up:

500 days defending the Eastern flank of NATO.
Ukraine holds strong. Ukraine will win.
🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/jJtek18ho7

— Oleksii Reznikov (@oleksiireznikov) July 8, 2023

This is reality that the leaders of the NATO member states need to get their heads around. Right now Ukraine is the only thing standing between Russia’s military perching on the border of NATO members Romania, Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary, as well as Moldova rather than just threatening it with Transnistria. European and trans-Atlantic foreign, defense, security, and economic policy looks much different without Ukraine’s staunch defense against Russia’s genocidal re-invasion. The leaders of NATO member states need come to terms with this and decide if they’re going to recognize and formalize this reality or they’re going to diminish the alliance and demoralize not only the Ukrainians, but NATO’s eastern European members.

Kherson City:

KHERSON CITY/ 2100 UTC 8 JUL/ A UKR bridgehead has been expanded east to the rail trestle and south to the limits of Oleshky. UKR forces destroyed a Russian main battle tank during contact on 8 JUL. UKR artillery is targeting RU troops, armor and logistics as they approach… pic.twitter.com/AYcDWwcYB6

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) July 8, 2023

KHERSON CITY/ 2100 UTC 8 JUL/ A UKR bridgehead has been expanded east to the rail trestle and south to the limits of Oleshky. UKR forces destroyed a Russian main battle tank during contact on 8 JUL. UKR artillery is targeting RU troops, armor and logistics as they approach Kherson. Contact continues along the M-14 HWY axis.

Bakhmut:

Two Ukrainian 155-mm self-propelled guns Bohdana 2023 year of production and one older modification of Bohdana operating on Bakhmut front.
Full video- https://t.co/Jh4RElo35zhttps://t.co/m4trpRagGH pic.twitter.com/j3QhHPaLn1

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 8, 2023

Here’s a machine translation of the summary from below the video:

Artillerymen of the 57th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade named after Cossack Ataman Kostya Gordienko are firing daily to accelerate the infantry offensive towards Bakhmut with Ukrainian 155mm NATO-standard 2C22 Bogdan artillery.

According to the howitzer commander, Dmitry, the radius of the howitzer is 43 kilometers.

However, the more shells from Western partners, the better the counteroffensive will be accelerated, and the cluster munitions promised by the United States will help his soldiers achieve their goals faster.

This video is published solely for documentary purposes to convey the truth about the war in Ukraine.

Video: AP

Strikes (possibly with JDAM-ER) on Russian positions in Paraskoviivka near Bakhmut. Video by the 77th brigade of Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/4jZ3PDxPc3

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 8, 2023

/3. The same place was used by Russians as a base back in March https://t.co/kh48AUrmO7

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 8, 2023

Lviv:

Thousands of people gathered in Lviv to greet Zelensky and Azovstal defenders. What a day. pic.twitter.com/1Av7y6VyWP

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) July 8, 2023

Lyman, Dontesk Oblast:

Another crime of the terrorist state.
Around 10 a.m., russians shelled the residential quarters of Lyman in Donetsk region with multiple rocket launchers. At least 6 civilians were killed, and 5 are currently known to be injured.
Rescue operations are ongoing.

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 8, 2023

Here’s a thread from former US Navy Explosive Ordnance Device (EOD) specialist and current NY Times reporter regarding the cluster munitions the US is sending to Ukraine:

This dud rate stands in contrast with the 2.35% rate claimed by the Pentagon, which is based on tests under optimal conditions at a proving ground in Yuma, Ariz., where the impact area is flat hard-packed ground devoid of vegetation.

— John Ismay (@johnismay) July 8, 2023

Trees, shrubs and fences can also snag DPICMs before they can hit the ground, leaving them hanging until something — or someone — accidentally knocks them free to hit the ground, where they can detonate as intended.

— John Ismay (@johnismay) July 8, 2023

The U.S. will likely send hundreds of thousands of these M864 shells to Ukraine in the coming months.

— John Ismay (@johnismay) July 8, 2023

 

Last night in comments Anonymous at Work asked:

Adam,

Thanks for the update and information on the cluster munitions.  Given how insanely banned they are internationally, and the anti-Biden sentiment among Republicans, any chance the US will sign on after RU is driven from Ukraine?  Or will the “Biden did a thing, we will now oppose it” caucus in the US Senate go away?

I presume, as with the Convention on Land Mines, the US wants a carve out for South Korea as its primary objection (another non-signatory).

The domestic politics in the US will remain the domestic politics in the US. The most recent polling/political surveying I’ve seen indicated we’re back to an overall solid majority of Americans supporting the Ukrainians and this includes the numbers among the GOP moving back up in the support Ukraine direction. But the usual suspects on both sides will use this as a way to try to attack Biden from both the right and the left.

As to carves out on the international agreements regarding the use of cluster munitions to be similar to those the US seeks on the Convention on Land Mines, my take here is that it doesn’t matter. None of these treaties will ever pass the Senate again. The Law of the Sea Treaty, which was almost completely negotiated under the Bush 41 administration and then finished by the Clinton administration, has been DOA in the Senate because it was the Clinton administration – a Democratic administration – that sent it to the Senate for ratification. All you need to know about how this stuff has worked since the 1990s is the ongoing attack on US national security by Senator Tuberville who is holding up all the senior uniformed and civilian nominations for the Services and DOD because Secretary Austin issued guidance after the Dobbs decision that the military would cover the costs to transport uniformed personnel in need of female reproductive health care to a state where it was legal if it could not be performed on the base medical facility. Frankly, I doubt that a treaty negotiated by a Republican president and sent to the Senate could actually clear the 2/3rds vote threshold with the current, let alone a potential future, GOP Senate caucus.

That’s enough for today.

Your daily Patron!

I am going to be very honest here, I live in dread of the day when I get to this section and I have to include something like this:

You could see on the news that I was under fire. It happened on June 5, but the journalists wrote only now. I am alive and well. It was Russian rockets that killed 2 people and injured 9 in Balaklia. I was moved to a shelter, and it saved my life. #500dayofwar pic.twitter.com/clTwKxiTBT

— Patron (@PatronDsns) July 8, 2023

Patron the dog came under fire during demining in the Balaklia district, the Balaklia City Military Administration reported.

The rescuers moved the dog to the shelter in time. pic.twitter.com/knNPNwufyr

— UNITED24 Media (@United24media) July 8, 2023

Fortunately, the little guy is okay, but honestly I dread the day when I might have to include something different in this portion of the update.

A new video from Patron’s official TikTok:

@patron__dsns

🥸

♬ original sound – Joshua Allen

 

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 500: The Azovstal Commanders Come Home!Post + Comments (66)

  • « Go to Previous Page
  • Page 1
  • Interim pages omitted …
  • Page 798
  • Page 799
  • Page 800
  • Page 801
  • Page 802
  • Interim pages omitted …
  • Page 5299
  • Go to Next Page »

Primary Sidebar

Sunday Morning Garden Chat: Flower Portraits 14
Image by Mike in Oly (11/16/25)

Recent Comments

  • Matt McIrvin on Monday (Again?!?) Morning Open Thread (Nov 17, 2025 @ 8:12am)
  • Pittsburgh Mike on Medium Cool – Great Silly Movies (Nov 17, 2025 @ 8:06am)
  • Tony Jay on Late Night Respite Open Thread (Nov 17, 2025 @ 8:04am)
  • Ceci n est pas mon nym on Monday (Again?!?) Morning Open Thread (Nov 17, 2025 @ 8:02am)
  • Betty on On The Road – Albatrossity – Moab to Escalante – On the Trail of the Monkey Wrench Gang (Nov 17, 2025 @ 8:02am)

Balloon Juice Posts

View by Topic
View by Author
View by Month & Year
View by Past Author

Featuring

Medium Cool
Artists in Our Midst
Authors in Our Midst
On Artificial Intelligence (7-part series)

🎈Keep Balloon Juice Ad Free

Become a Balloon Juice Patreon
Donate with Venmo, Zelle or PayPal

Calling All Jackals

Site Feedback
Nominate a Rotating Tag
Submit Photos to On the Road
Balloon Juice Anniversary (All Links)
Balloon Juice Anniversary (All Posts)
Fix Nyms with Apostrophes

Balloon Juice Mailing List Signup

Social Media

Balloon Juice
WaterGirl
TaMara
John Cole
DougJ (aka NYT Pitchbot)
Betty Cracker
Tom Levenson
David Anderson
Major Major Major Major
DougJ NYT Pitchbot
mistermix
Rose Judson (podcast)

Site Footer

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

  • Facebook
  • RSS
  • Twitter
  • YouTube
  • Comment Policy
  • Our Authors
  • Blogroll
  • Our Artists
  • Privacy Policy

Copyright © 2025 Dev Balloon Juice · All Rights Reserved · Powered by BizBudding Inc