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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

You can’t attract Republican voters. You can only out organize them.

How any woman could possibly vote for this smug smarmy piece of misogynistic crap is beyond understanding.

The lights are all blinking red.

We know you aren’t a Democrat but since you seem confused let me help you.

When do we start airlifting the women and children out of Texas?

The most dangerous place for a black man in America is in a white man’s imagination.

Sadly, media malpractice has become standard practice.

Balloon Juice, where there is always someone who will say you’re doing it wrong.

New McCarthy, same old McCarthyism.

The fundamental promise of conservatism all over the world is a return to an idealized past that never existed.

“When somebody takes the time to draw up a playbook, they’re gonna use it.”

People really shouldn’t expect the government to help after they watched the GOP drown it in a bathtub.

Hey hey, RFK, how many kids did you kill today?

So very ready.

I would try pessimism, but it probably wouldn’t work.

Beware of advice from anyone for whom Democrats are “they” and not “we.”

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires republicans to act in good faith.

You would normally have to try pretty hard to self-incriminate this badly.

You know it’s bad when the Project 2025 people have to create training videos on “How To Be Normal”.

The arc of history bends toward the same old fuckery.

In my day, never was longer.

Fear and negativity are contagious, but so is courage!

The snowflake in chief appeared visibly frustrated when questioned by a reporter about egg prices.

If a good thing happens for a bad reason, it’s still a good thing.

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Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

Open Threads

You are here: Home / Archives for Open Threads

Late Night Open Thread: ‘Moms for Liberty’, a/k/a ‘Mary KayKayKay’

by Anne Laurie|  July 7, 20231:26 am| 67 Comments

This post is in: Domestic Terrorism, Education, Open Threads, Republican Venality

“We came to a very Black, queer, trans, antifascist place with a reputation for beating up Nazis, that explicitly told us not to bring our hateful anti-Black, anti-queer, anti-trans, book-banning fascist rhetoric into their city… and they were mean to us!!!” https://t.co/9qozADdyWn

— Kim Kelly (@GrimKim) July 4, 2023

But they’re concerned! And they’re mommies!

Moms for Liberty fucked around, and they found out what it looks like when you cross us and threaten our neighbors. That’s when the City of Brotherly Love turns into Hostile City—and you’re on your own there, bud.

My latest dispatch for @thenation: https://t.co/F0o5YmC8w0

— Kim Kelly (@GrimKim) July 5, 2023

… Moms for Liberty, the far-right hate group that has pushed both book bans and their own anti-Black, anti-LGBTQ rhetoric across the country while masquerading as a defender of “parental rights,” chose Philadelphia as the site of their annual “Joyful Warriors” summit this past week. And, with typical subtlety, they decided to hold their opening reception at the Museum of the American Revolution, in the heart of Old City, and booked the conference itself at the Philadelphia Marriott Downtown, just steps away from City Hall.

There was a certain logic behind choosing this particular city ahead of the Fourth of July holiday—we’re the birthplace of the United States, the Declaration of Independence, and all that jazz—but it was also a taunt, a challenge: This city, this country, belongs to us, not to you. So what are you going to do about it? …

Those appropriate measures started off on the morning of June 29 with a banner drop over I-95. Early birds were greeted with warnings that “Philly Protects Trans Kids” and “Bad Things Happen to Fascists in Philadelphia,” and that was only the beginning of a four-day-long protest that would bring hundreds, if not thousands, of people out into the streets. That evening, I watched as protesters encircled the Museum of the American Revolution. Armed with passionate speakers like ACT UP’s Jazmyn Henderson, a heavy-duty sound system, a fierce playlist, and hundreds of supporters, ACT UP and YCL members led the crowd in an hours-long queer dance party that doubled as an open roast of the Moms for Liberty attendees slinking in and out of the museum. “We lit out here. We not boring like these fucking people!” one speaker hollered as the sound system blared hip-hop. Another protester held up a sign reading, “Hey Moms for Liberty: if you’re scared of violent pornographic content near your kids, just wait until you read your Bible!” …

show full post on front page

The dance party continued throughout the weekend. Protesters decamped to the Marriott for the next three days of the conference, where more barriers and an endless stream of bored-looking cops tried to insulate the attendees from the actual city. That didn’t always work, either. A delightful video began circulating on social media on Friday after a local encountered a few errant moms in Reading Terminal Market, and helpfully ushered them out with a few choice exhortations—“Racists have never been welcome here, ever! And you’re still not welcome here!” The moms in question seemed shocked that anyone would dare oppose them. That indignant air accompanied them whenever they were forced to actually interact with a Philadelphian that weekend. Perhaps simply not enough people have been telling them to their face that their hateful agenda was not welcome, so Philly was happy to oblige. While I was there on Friday afternoon, the cops forgot to barricade off an exit path between the Marriott and the parking garage across the street, forcing conference attendees to come face-to-face with the protesters. All of a sudden, panicked fascists were getting chased down the street and up into the parking garage, heckled and jeered at, and told in no uncertain terms how the city felt about them. The cops scrambled to regain control, and the dance party continued. Making fascists feel unsafe is as much a Philly specialty as a cheesesteak from John’s Roast Pork or Irish potatoes, and it felt awfully nice to indulge…

… ACT UP Philadelphia was adamant that the dance party and associated events remain peaceful, and they did; whenever things began to heat up, organizers would grab the mic and calm everyone down. The tagline, “They can’t stop trans and queer joy!” underpinned the dance party protest, and that joyful resistance was in full bloom. The kid-centered events were especially sweet, and the protests maintained a family-friendly vibe throughout, as long as your kid could handle a few (thousand) swear words…

Moms for Liberty has morphed into a sprawling organization that aims to fight for what it sees as parental rights, but that critics label anti-government extremism. https://t.co/c1fcNHf0NX

— NBC Politics (@NBCPolitics) July 2, 2023


One hand back-scratches the other:

… “Never apologize. Ever,” said Christian Ziegler, the chairman of the Florida Republican Party. “This is my view. Other people have different views on this. I think apologizing makes you weak.”…

Moms for Liberty, which says it is nonpartisan, has grown into a conservative powerhouse, boasting 120,000 members in 285 chapters across 44 states. The group started in Brevard County, Florida, in 2021, initially to fight Covid restrictions and mask mandates.

It has morphed into a sprawling organization that aims to fight for what it sees as parental rights but that critics, including the left-leaning Southern Poverty Law Center, label anti-government extremism. Its members have removed books they deem inappropriate from public school libraries and have pushed to end what they see as the “indoctrination” of children on such topics as race, gender and sexuality.

The group [held] its second annual national conference [in Philadelphia last] week, drawing the five GOP presidential candidates, including former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Ziegler conducted his training during a breakout session, giving more than 100 attendees a lesson in how to deal with the media as the activists attract more attention and scrutiny.

He is the husband of Bridget Ziegler, one of the co-founders of Moms for Liberty, who later left the organization in an official capacity and was appointed by DeSantis to his Disney oversight board this spring. She introduced her husband at the session…

“They’re lazy,” Ziegler said of reporters. “They have no idea what’s going on at school board meetings. Oftentimes they don’t even know how local government works.”

[Okay… he’s not wrong, there…]

He also told attendees to give priority to local news interviews instead of going to national media.

“That’s where you reach the undecideds,” he said, adding that people who watch Fox News or MSNBC probably know how they’re going to vote but that consumers of local news may not.

Ziegler told attendees to look for opportunities to rattle their opponents, and he shared as an example a tactic to mess with a political opponent’s head. It involved printing out a direct mail piece that goes to 50 of the opponent’s friends and neighbors — but that the person will believe went to the whole town.

“They’re totally paranoid,” Ziegler said. “And they’ve burned three days of productivity” because they’re spending time worrying about a mailer that went out to only a few dozen people.

In an interview later, Ziegler described the mailer discussion as “an off-the-cuff example for campaigns that has nothing to do with the media training.”...

We prefer to do all our rat-fornicating in private, thankyouverymuch!

In some ways, Florida is uniquely suited to the sort of ‘Fascist Magic Kingdom’ politics that Ron DeSaster has so far succeeded so well by using; there’s a local tradition of self-sealed communities — from Disney World to The Villages — where people can cosplay their own little fiefdoms. Take the fan convention to a place with different traditions, well…

Never gets old, does it https://t.co/JcSDUOT69v pic.twitter.com/jDuMVMkxZ8

— Ragnarok Lobster (@eclecticbrotha) July 5, 2023

Joyful Warriors!

Tonight in Philadelphia, Moms for Liberty's summit is opening — So, I’ve been digging into the group's far right anti-LGBTIQ connections, and building a network analysis.

This is an interactive visualization of the sponsors and exhibitors of the Joyful Warriors National Summit. pic.twitter.com/yT9PbkayNM

— Teddy Wilson ????? (@reportbywilson) June 30, 2023

Interesting way to report on a hate group. https://t.co/YUuSplv3fS

— Soledad O'Brien (@soledadobrien) July 2, 2023

Credit where due:

Moms for Liberty is Mary KKKay. https://t.co/rLrZiCDB0B

— Marmel (@Marmel) July 1, 2023

Late Night Open Thread: ‘Moms for Liberty’, a/k/a ‘Mary KayKayKay’Post + Comments (67)

War for Ukraine Day 498: One of You Has a Question, I (May) Have an Answer

by Adam L Silverman|  July 6, 20238:04 pm| 95 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

The Russians opened up on Lviv overnight.

The overnight attack on Lviv was the most devastating one on the city since the beginning of the full-scale war.
The youngest victim killed by the missile strikes was 32, the oldest 62.
📷 @HromadskeUA @radiosvoboda pic.twitter.com/BClE0aH4p2

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 6, 2023

Last night, russians attacked Lviv with Kalibr cruise missiles.
Ukraine's air defenders shot down 7 of 10 missiles.
At least four civilians were killed, and 32 were injured.

Ukraine needs F-16s to strengthen its air defense and save lives! pic.twitter.com/FRlhauYiCk

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 6, 2023

There will definitely be a response to the enemy. pic.twitter.com/DSDa8MVnad

— Ukrainian Air Force (@KpsZSU) July 6, 2023

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump. This is a speech, unlike his usual address to Ukrainians, to the Bulgarian officials he met with with today. His remarks begin around the 8:30 mark.

show full post on front page

Defense support means saving freedom – speech by the President of Ukraine at the meeting with representatives of Bulgarian political circles, civil society and media

6 July 2023 – 19:59

Mr. Prime Minister! 

Dear Deputy Prime Minister! 

Dear participants! Dear friends!

I’m sure we have a lot of friends here and it is tangible, so let me address you in this way.

First of all, I really want to apologize for our delay – it’s a fact, all of our conversations here today, all of our conversations in Bulgaria are so important, so meaningful that there is simply not enough time to keep up with this schedule… But I hope that our conversation will also be as meaningful as possible. I know that you have questions and I will be happy, all of us will be happy to answer them.

But first, I want to thank everyone in Bulgaria, I want to thank each and every one of you for your respect and support for our people – it is very important – who, after the outbreak of a full-scale war, found refuge in your cities, among you, in your communities. In total, more than one hundred and forty thousand of our people have found protection in Bulgaria since then, and I am very grateful for that. You applauded me and I want you to applaud yourselves for everything you have done for our people.

We are trying to do our best to ensure that our people can return home to Ukraine as soon as possible. We want Ukraine to finally become safe, and we feel that this is possible not in the long term, but quite soon… Ukraine’s victory is real. And we need it very much.

It all depends on one factor, namely, the amount and power of the important support we use for defense – first of all, armed support. But it also depends on support through sanctions against Russia for terror, financial support for our social stability in a time like this, a time of war, and, last but not least, motivation for our people. People need to see and feel that the world sees and feels the pain that Ukrainians are going through in order to protect for themselves and their children exactly the same values that every free nation enjoys. It is absolutely fair.

You know, among all the disinformation about this war, whether it’s Russian disinformation or simply narratives that favor Russia, there are some particularly absurd, dangerous claims. And among them is the claim that helping Ukraine, in particular with weapons or sanctions, allegedly makes this war longer and allegedly does not help restore security.

You may have heard such absurd statements. It is always important to refute them, because war is a time when any disregard for reality is disheartening and prevents the war from ending.

The reality speaks for itself, namely that we were able to significantly reduce the scale of this war. First of all, thanks to the weapons we receive.

Our warriors have already liberated about one thousand nine hundred towns and villages on Ukrainian soil since February 24 last year. Indeed, we still have a very, very difficult path to go to liberate our entire territory from occupation, but let’s not forget how it all began, how it all started, and what Ukrainians have been able to accomplish.

We have repelled Russian attacks on our northern regions and the capital of Ukraine. We have liberated large areas of the east and south of our country. We have begun to create a powerful sky shield that can become the basis of a pan-European sky shield, and we have already proven that Russia has no missiles that cannot be shot down. We have destroyed the entire, and I emphasize this, the entire most combat-ready part of the Russian army in battles. Putin is now forced to humiliate himself in front of regimes like Iran to get weapons to continue his terror. Terror against Ukraine. Russia, which claimed to be the second most powerful country in the world, is looking for help from exiles…

And this Russian ruler is already so weak that he is unable to protect even Russian regions from his own militants. And if one day someone like Prigozhin or Kadyrov, for example, marches directly to the Kremlin, we should not be surprised. All the remnants of the Russian armed forces are in the occupied areas of our country, and those who are supposed to guarantee the security of this regime in Russia have no motivation to actually fight for a weak and inadequate tsar.

So now we have to increase our joint pressure. The more aid, ammunition, and weapons we receive, the more modern they are, the clearer the contours of our victory are, that is, the more the scale of the war on our land is reduced, because we are pushing the occupiers out. Defense support really means saving freedom, it increases the space of freedom and normal life for our people. And I am grateful to you, I am grateful to Bulgaria for being on the bright side of history, particularly in defense cooperation.

The greater our political unity is, particularly in the area of European and Euro-Atlantic integration, the more the Russian dictator’s entourage will fall apart and the weaker he will become. None of his ambitions have been realized. And we have to confirm at every stage of our path that the ambitions of the Russian regime will not be realized. Vilnius is now one of the key stages. It is there that we can and must prove that Russian regimes – whatever they may be – will no longer have a “veto” over the free choice of the European nations to determine their future. Ukraine is choosing the Alliance, NATO’s door is open, so it is time for an invitation to enter. When Ukraine chooses its future independently, and our choice really works, it means that the whole of Europe chooses and will always choose its future without external coercion. The current Russian regime is the last enslaver of nations in Europe. And this is also a fact. And this regime must lose, both on the battlefield and in politics, so that all people in Europe can win.

And the third aspect is unity. This is very important.

Modern Europe cannot afford the luxury of internal confrontations and internal divisions. Today is exactly one month since a new government has been in office in Bulgaria, and I sincerely wish this government a solid foundation of social unity, and therefore the opportunity to increase your strength, your influence, and the benefits for Bulgaria – in Europe and around the world. You always have to fight for the future of your people, and to gain it, you need unity, on which you rely.

May you succeed! Ukraine will always support you. And it will always be grateful to you for helping our defense.

I thank you for your attention! Thank you, beautiful Sofia, and thank you for hosting our delegation, for treating our people as if they were your own, your own family and friends. It’s so important, it keeps you going. And I am grateful to you for that.

Glory to Ukraine!

He also met with Czech President Petr Pavel today. Here’s the video of their joint press conference.

Ukraine was able to get a large number of POWs back today.

45 soldiers of Armed Forces, National Guard, DPSU and two civilians returned to Ukraine from Russian captivity.
Among them – a civilian employee of "Azovstal" and a member of territorial defense from Kherson.https://t.co/ZsVSUt8hyg pic.twitter.com/0znvLCsnES

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 6, 2023

/3. The moment of meeting a mother, a combat medic, with her children, who were in Russian captivity. Children and mother did not see each other for 1.5 years. pic.twitter.com/r1ldVA9ufV

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 6, 2023

Lviv:

Lviv….our most European-looking city.
And now this, Russian Kalibr missiles. This is what European cities would look like if we went on "not provoking Putin" and "calling on both sides to de-escalate" instead of confronting the aggressor. pic.twitter.com/g1byvt0cQ9

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) July 6, 2023

Lviv, a city in western Ukraine, was considered one of the safest places in Ukraine, but Russia hit it with missiles tonight, killing 4 people and injuring at least 32.

Some people are still trapped under the rubble of a destroyed residential building. pic.twitter.com/aIDrSz1lFE

— Daryna Antoniuk (@daryna_antoniuk) July 6, 2023

In the wake of last night’s bombardment of Lviv, The Kyiv Independent‘s Illia Ponomarenko is channeling a lot of frustration and despair with this question.

For more than a year, Russian Z-patriots can’t decide between two mutually contradicting narratives they all push for simultaneously:

– NATO & the West have been preparing a grand war on Russia for decades, so they will eagerly provide Ukraine with the whole of its military and…

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) July 6, 2023

Here’s the full text:

For more than a year, Russian Z-patriots can’t decide between two mutually contradicting narratives they all push for simultaneously:

– NATO & the West have been preparing a grand war on Russia for decades, so they will eagerly provide Ukraine with the whole of its military and industrial might to destroy, partition, and enslave Russia.
– NATO & the West are so weak, undetermined, and unprepared for a grand war with Russia that their defense assistance supplies to Ukraine are way too slow, insufficient, and prolonged that Ukraine is essentially doomed, which is good for Russia.

So why is it that Ukraine has to beg for weapons and supplies for months and years and get a drop at a time, why doesn’t the West just give Ukraine absolutely everything, from artillery to F-16s, right away, just like that, since this war was prepared for decades and they want to see Russia destroyed?

Because they’re all Satanists and evil, and they want as many Slavic men dead as possible, for whatever reason.

I know that a new US military aid package will be announced tomorrow, and we’ll cover it then, but you need to listen to the message that Illia Ponomarenko is sending to us in the US and to our allies. This isn’t a message of ingratitude, it is a message of despair and anguish.

Bucha:

Gods of thunder are having a gig right now in Bucha ⛈️⚡️ pic.twitter.com/d01cmwUlMu

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) July 6, 2023

 

Ugh!

U.S. will continue to provide weaponry to Kyiv so that Ukrainian officials can negotiate from a position of strength when they think the time is right, per DoS Spox #StandWithUkraine

— Alex Raufoglu (@ralakbar) July 6, 2023

Of course its Richard Haas who runs the Council on Foreign Relations! NBC News has the details:

LONDON —  A group of former senior U.S. national security officials have held secret talks with prominent Russians believed to be close to the Kremlin — and, in at least one case, with the country’s top diplomat — with the aim of laying the groundwork for potential negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, half a dozen people briefed on the discussions told NBC News.

In a high-level example of the back-channel diplomacy taking place behind the scenes, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met with members of the group for several hours in April in New York, four former officials and two current officials told NBC News.

On the agenda of the April meeting were some of the thorniest issues in the war in Ukraine, like the fate of Russian-held territory that Ukraine may never be able to liberate, and the search for an elusive diplomatic off-ramp that could be tolerable to both sides.

Sitting down with Lavrov were Richard Haass, a former diplomat and the outgoing president of the Council on Foreign Relations, current and former officials said. The group was joined by Europe expert Charles Kupchan and Russia expert Thomas Graham, both former White House and State Department officials who are Council on Foreign Relations fellows.

The former U.S. officials involved either did not respond to requests for comment from NBC News or declined to comment on the record. All of the sources declined to be named in order to confirm talks that were intended to be kept confidential.

Among the goals, they said, is to keep channels of communication with Russia open where possible and to feel out where there might be room for future negotiation, compromise and diplomacy over ending the war.

The discussions have taken place with the knowledge of the Biden administration, but not at its direction, with the former officials involved in the Lavrov meeting briefing the White House National Security Council afterward about what transpired, two of the sources said.

The discussions are known in diplomatic parlance as “Track Two diplomacy,” a form of unofficial engagement involving private citizens not currently in government — or in the case of the Lavrov meeting, “Track 1.5,” meaning current officials are involved on one end of the conversation. They come as formal, high-level diplomatic engagements between the U.S. and Russian governments over Ukraine have been few and far between.

It is not clear how frequently the backchannel discussions have taken place, nor whether they’re part of a single, organized effort.

But on the American side, the discussions have involved some former Pentagon officials, including Mary Beth Long, a former U.S. assistant defense secretary with deep experience in NATO issues, according to two people briefed on the talks.

So NBC, based on what they’ve been told by these former political appointees, is reporting the Biden administration knows about what is going on and this is an official Track 2/backchannel. The Biden State Department contradicts that. Graham was last a political appointee, let alone a career Foreign Service officer, in the first George W Bush administration. Kupchan’s last political appointment was in the second Obama administration. Haas, like Graham, was a political appointee during the first George W. Bush administration. Long served as a political appointee in the second George W. Bush administration.

Someone here is lying. Unfortunately, even if it is these useless idiots, Russia wins as a result. Especially because the Ukrainian news is reporting this sourced to NBC and with NBC’s framing that these are official Track 2/backchannel negotiations with Lavrov. Interestingly, the spokeswoman for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has denounced the reporting as fake:

Maria Zakharova, a spokesperson for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, has dismissed thereport as fake.

This is going to be demoralizing. The official State Department correction is not going to be read, seen, and/or heard by the average Ukrainian. This is going to be pushed and pulled hither and yon throughout social media. I cannot tell you how stupid this is if it is just these four schmucks freelancing. If it eventually comes out someone in the Biden administration blessed off on this, it is going to be monumentally bad.

I see that accusations of Russia using chemical weapons are circling around social media again. They last time people were claiming that K-51 tear gas (chemical irritant) grenades were chloropicrin grenades. They’re not. Here’s a long thread from Dan Kaszeta with all the details from SEP 2022.

OK. Here's what I have to say about the alleged "chloropicrin grenade" attack in Ukraine. There's a lot of holes in this story and I think some misunderstanding is going on.

(Thread)

— Dan Kaszeta, FRHistS, Legal Juggernaut 🇱🇹 🇺🇦 (@DanKaszeta) September 24, 2022

Many accounts go on to name the device as a "K-51 chloropicrin grenade"

— Dan Kaszeta, FRHistS, Legal Juggernaut 🇱🇹 🇺🇦 (@DanKaszeta) September 24, 2022

Chloropicrin isn't going to work in this sort of grenade. The K-51 works by igniting a burning filler, in which granulated/powdered CS is mixed in with the burning filling material.

— Dan Kaszeta, FRHistS, Legal Juggernaut 🇱🇹 🇺🇦 (@DanKaszeta) September 24, 2022

https://twitter.com/DanKaszeta/status/1573696561678143493

https://twitter.com/DanKaszeta/status/1573697207852617736

https://twitter.com/DanKaszeta/status/1573698002249580550

https://twitter.com/DanKaszeta/status/1573698407520051200

https://twitter.com/DanKaszeta/status/1573699786015768579

https://twitter.com/DanKaszeta/status/1573703864989016064

https://twitter.com/DanKaszeta/status/1573707547176882176

https://twitter.com/DanKaszeta/status/1574114266851856384

Last night in the comments, Anonymous at Work asked:

Adam,

About the proving grounds bit, any sense or word that UA having access to the latest and best with good training will prepare US for when a SE Asian power decides to invade a small breakaway island neighbor?  That the US needs to learn MORE from what weapons can/do work than this “SE Asian power” does from what Russia does (or rather learns what not to do)?

The answer is yes and no. Having actual real world data about how these weapons and weapons systems work in a conventional interstate war is important. So that will help. However, I am not sure given the differences in the actual physical geography, as well as the human (people, places, things, and how they interact in time and space), political (how governments are structured, staffed, run, and decisions are made), and military (how the military is structured, staffed, run, and decisions are made) geography means that a lot of what people would like to be the lessons learned from Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s genocidal re-invasion aren’t going to be. Leaving aside the cottage industry of think tank and scholarly reports over the past year and a half – some coming out just weeks into the war – claiming to provide lessons learned from the Ukrainian-Russian War of 2022, quite frankly we really do not know what the real key take aways are. I’m not sure we’ll know for years after the war ends. And the attempts to glean tactical lessons learned and then assert them as anything more than a snapshot in time is arrogant foolishness. There’s so much we do not know yet. So much information, despite the amount of information that has come out, that has not come out or that we think means X now, but may mean Y when it is all over, that I’m not sure we can make any sort of even general extrapolations for what we might or might not need to learn in the scenario you’ve described. However, the one lesson the Taiwanese damn well better be learning right now is to get as much as they can in terms of material now and stockpile it. Because regardless of how loudly majorities in Congress are banging the drum in your favor or how supportive the statements are coming out of the administration, the reality is you’re going to get what you’re going to get when the US decides to send it to you based on both the understanding of the national interest of whomever is President at that time and his senior advisor and their fears of what providing support might lead to. Which ties back into Illia Ponomarenko’s expression of frustration and despair.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos tonight. So here is Murchik the cat from Sumy!

https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1676928487787986945

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 498: One of You Has a Question, I (May) Have an AnswerPost + Comments (95)

Thursday Evening Open Thread: Keep Hope Alive

by Anne Laurie|  July 6, 20237:46 pm| 96 Comments

This post is in: Excellent Links, Open Threads

A grim couple of weeks in America, yes. But some reasons here for hope and optimism. My latest in @GuardianUS. Thanks to @AshaRangappa_ @ThePlumLineGS, quoted herein https://t.co/PgXThbL8PH

— Margaret Sullivan (@Sulliview) July 5, 2023

Margaret Sullivan, in the Guardian, “On the Fourth of July, a few reasons to feel encouraged about US democracy”:

It’s been a grim week or so in the United States, especially for those with progressive values…

But despite that, there are reasons to feel encouraged about the future of the nation on this, its 247th birthday.

First, the successful effort in Congress to protect democracy and electoral integrity known as the Electoral Count Act reform. Widely seen as the most important such reform in a generation, it developed in direct response to Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election which came to a violent head in the January 6 insurrection at the US Capitol. Among its many admirable provisions, it prohibits state legislatures from changing how electors can be selected after an election.

Then in one of two positive pieces of supreme court news in recent weeks, the court rejected a dangerous effort to allow states to ignore their own state constitutions. Undeterred, that could have radically transformed how federal elections are conducted by giving state legislatures a great deal of power to set rules for federal elections. The court also unexpectedly struck down Alabama’s racial gerrymandering plan under the Voting Rights Act.

I find it oddly encouraging that, according to a recent USA Today/Suffolk University poll, seven in 10 Americans think our democracy is “imperiled.” Of course, people define that peril according to their own politics and world views, but is is undoubtedly one reason why election denialists were roundly defeated during last year’s midterm elections.

Most Americans apparently don’t want extremists running elections and they understand how high the stakes are…

And while this is hard to quantify, I know of many citizens and advocates who are working hard to protect voting, to support the rights of the disenfranchised. to lessen the blows dealt by the recent court rulings, and to sustain local journalism.

It’s a heavy lift, so we should all lend a hand.

“Get engaged locally,” urged Yale University’s Asha Rangappa told me recently when I interviewed the former FBI agent for my podcast, American Crisis: Can Journalism Save Democracy? That could mean runing for office, signing up to be a poll worker, volunteering at school, participating in the arts.

Rangappa wants more Americans to “cultivate the habits of democracy”. Those habits are developed when people leave their social-media echo chambers, get out into their communities, and simply talk to each other.

On this Fourth of July, let’s make sure our ever-fragile democracy endures to celebrate many more birthdays.

Thursday Evening Open Thread: Keep Hope AlivePost + Comments (96)

Rock Bottom (Open Thread)

by Betty Cracker|  July 6, 20233:49 pm| 198 Comments

This post is in: Elections 2024, Open Threads, Politics, Republican Stupidity

I love this so much...

The Ron DeSantis 2024 campaign is flailing so badly that Mike Huckabee — MIKE HUCKABEE! — has proposed an intervention! Via Florida Politics:

“I’m not sure who’s running his campaign and what their strategy is, but I would say that he probably needs to make some course corrections because at this point, he’s so far behind Donald Trump and some of the other candidates are beginning to approach his numbers,” Huckabee said. “He’s no longer that clear alternative to Donald Trump. He’s one of several alternatives to Donald Trump to those who want one. And that’s going to be a real challenge for him.”

“It’s not that he has to face Donald Trump and fear something coming at his face,” Huckabee added. “He’s got to fear there’s another 15 people who are going to be coming at him from his back.”

Huckabee specifically criticized the bizarre incel-themed ad Team DeSantis rolled out the other day that captured all kinds of national attention — in a bad way:

While Huckabee rejected the idea that the ad showed DeSantis was “homophobic,” Huckabee said the ad “probably wasn’t the best idea for an ad, in part because you win elections when you add people to your voting rolls, you don’t win elections when you keep subtracting them.”

“But the fact is there are many people in that community who are conservative and vote Republican. You want those voters and just in the same way that Donald Trump was very clear in saying he would protect Christian voters, pro-life voters, I think what he’s saying is that he wants to protect the rights of every American citizen … to live like they want to live as long as it doesn’t interfere and disrupt someone else,” Huckabee continued.

“That really is kind of the heart of what America is about.”

I’m sick of writing about Ron DeSantis. I’m sure everyone is sick of reading about Ron DeSantis. Soon I hope his shitty campaign implodes and that its foul, tattered remnants sink to the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico, bothering nobody outside of Florida ever again. But in the meantime, DeSantis is stepping on so many rakes that Mike Huckabee — MIKE HUCKABEE! — is begging him to get his shit together.

Open thread.

Rock Bottom (Open Thread)Post + Comments (198)

Best Thing Since Movable Type?

by Betty Cracker|  July 6, 202312:00 pm| 157 Comments

This post is in: Domestic Politics, Open Threads, Politics, Our Failed Media Experiment

We complain about U.S. media organizations’ shitty political coverage a lot around here, and with damn good reason. Hardworking, underpaid reporters toiling at local dailies still expose corruption and bring relevant facts to light for voters, as do similarly motivated national players like ProPublica.

But with few exceptions, the multimillionaire celebrity TV journos are hacks, and horserace-obsessed outlets like Politico and Axios trivialize issues with life-or-death stakes because in reality, their job is to sell space to people angling for government contracts.

This isn’t new, but a more recent scourge is politics desk reporters building personal brands on social media and squirreling away stories gleaned from assignments to repackage in books. That’s not exactly new either, but it seemed to reach a grotesque nadir (as so many things did!) after the 2016 election.

Some political reporters aired their mommy issues in dissecting Clinton’s campaign while others monetized access to Trump, both repugnant spectacles. But according to this piece by David Graham in The Atlantic, that era may be coming to a close because of Joe Biden and Elon Musk, who the author says are respectively helping to “kill the demand and the means for journalists to brand themselves.”

Donald Trump isn’t responsible for the celebrification of the press, but he supercharged it, especially in political journalism. During his presidency, the American public was more fixated on the news than it had been in decades. Journalists, in turn, became celebrities in their own right: Maggie Haberman of The New York Times became a household name thanks to her perpetual stream of Trump scoops. CNN’s Jim Acosta’s press-room grandstanding elevated his renown. The TV-retread Tucker Carlson found his moment as Trump’s greatest media apostle. Books about Trump seemed to shoot up the best-seller lists on a weekly basis.

This has all slowed to a crawl in the Biden era. The president has intentionally pursued a strategy of being boring and normal, and the result is much-reduced attention from the press. It’s hard to think of any reporter who has become a new, massive star since 2021. No Biden-book boom has ensued. Readership at news sites dropped after the 2020 election, and so have TV-news audiences. The calmer mood reverses an infamous tweet: The change is good for our country, but this is dull content.

Musk’s purchase and gradual demolition of Twitter is an even bigger part of the equation. Twitter was a branding machine that allowed reporters to make a direct connection with consumers. A clever or funny or piquant or simply hyperactive journalist could bypass the traditional gatekeepers of their outlet and become famous for something other than—or in addition to—whatever appeared under their byline. Now Twitter is disintegrating for reasons of both ideology and technology.

Graham believes Twitter will eventually collapse (at least as a de facto “town square”) under the weight of its owner’s penchant for rightwing trolling and technical/managerial flailing. Instead of its journo userbase and, critically, those users’ audiences reconstituting on a successor platform, Graham thinks we’ll see “a much more fragmented landscape.”

I don’t know if he’s right. But if a combination of Biden’s aversion to drama and Musk’s world-historical business incompetence puts a dent in the Beltway branding scam and diminishes direct-to-consumer sales of recycled reportage, who knows, maybe the hacks will do their damn jobs or leave so someone else can. If so, it might be the best thing to happen to political coverage since the invention of movable type.

Open thread.

Best Thing Since Movable Type?Post + Comments (157)

Thursday Morning Open Thread : (Still) Proud to Be A Democrat

by Anne Laurie|  July 6, 20238:40 am| 201 Comments

This post is in: NANCY SMASH!, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Vice-President Harris

As they did in 2022, relentless Republican attacks on reproductive health care will energize voters — especially young voters — to mobilize and vote to defend their freedoms in 2024.

Republicans will pay a price for their extremism! That's not a threat — it's a prediction. -NP pic.twitter.com/oZOnYI7yYB

— Nancy Pelosi (@TeamPelosi) July 5, 2023

One year after the Dobbs decision, I joined @KekePalmer to discuss the maternal and reproductive healthcare crises our nation faces and what can be done. pic.twitter.com/sIFO1ceUyp

— Vice President Kamala Harris (@VP) July 5, 2023

Coretta Scott King said the fight for civil rights must be fought and won with each generation. At this moment in time, we are that generation. The gains we have made will never be permanent unless we are vigilant—let us fight for the future we deserve. pic.twitter.com/Y4QN59BztX

— Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) July 6, 2023

"When Vice President Kamala Harris appeared at the Democratic National Committee’s annual LGBTQ gala in New York late last month, she raked in $1.25 million, more money than any headliner in the event’s 24-year history, two sources told The Messenger." https://t.co/AInYf4EkH8

— David Darmofal (@david_darmofal) July 4, 2023

Today, @VP, @SBAIsabel, @RepJudyChu stopped by a small business and met the owners who were helped by SBA’s Community Advantage Program. As VP said, Bidenomics means when we support our nation’s small businesses “we invest in America, invest in our economy and make us strong.” pic.twitter.com/TJnwxdfOip

— Kirsten Allen (@KirstenAllen46) July 5, 2023

Congress is back in session next week.

House Dems are fighting to free America from the scourge of gun violence.

It’s time for Extreme MAGA Republicans to join us.

— Hakeem Jeffries (@RepJeffries) July 5, 2023

Thursday Morning Open Thread : (Still) Proud to Be A DemocratPost + Comments (201)

Late Night Open Thread: So Much Easier to Break Than to Build

by Anne Laurie|  July 5, 202311:42 pm| 125 Comments

This post is in: Excellent Links, Tech News & Issues, Assholes, Riveted By The Sociological Significance Of It All, social media

“Who in their right mind would explore space with a man who can’t keep a website running?” is a great question to ask at this juncture, but like cars and automated driving systems are safety critical systems as well. https://t.co/1OTzSo4nN3

— E.W. Niedermeyer (@Tweetermeyer) July 3, 2023

Twitter may have just had its worst weekend ever, technically speaking. In response to a series of server emergencies, Elon Musk, the Twitter owner and self-professed free-speech “absolutist,” decided to limit how many tweets people can view, and how they can view them. This was not your average fail whale. It was the social-media equivalent of Costco implementing a 10-items-or-fewer rule, or a 24-hour diner closing at 7 p.m.—a baffling, antithetical business decision for a platform that depends on engaging users (and showing them ads) as much as possible. It costs $44 billion to buy yourself a digital town square. Breaking it, however, is free…

… Twitter is now literally unusable if you don’t have an account, or if you do have an account and access it a lot. It is the clearest sign yet that Musk does not have his platform under control—that he cannot deliver a consistently functional experience for what was once one of the most vibrant and important social networks on the planet…

show full post on front page

Musk’s management style at the platform has appeared equally unstrategic. After saddling the company with a mountain of debt to complete his acquisition in October, he decided to tweet baseless conspiracy theories and alienate advertisers; days before this incident, the marketing lead in charge of managing Twitter’s brand partnerships had resigned. Musk quickly unbanned Twitter’s most egregious rule breakers; fired most of the employees, including those in charge of technical duties; and bungled the rollout of Twitter’s paid-verification system. Compared with a year earlier, Twitter’s U.S. advertising revenue for the five weeks beginning April 1 was down 59 percent…

… To date, Musk’s leadership has degraded the reliability of Twitter’s service, filled the platform with bigots and spam, and alienated many of its power users. But this weekend’s disasters are different. The decision to limit people’s ability to consume content on the platform is the rapid unscheduled disassembly of the never-ending, real-time feed of information that makes Twitter Twitter.

His supporters are confused and, perhaps, starting to feel the cracks of cognitive dissonance. “Surely someone who can figure out how to build spaceships can figure out how to distinguish scrapers from legit users,” Graham—the same one who supported Musk in November—tweeted on Saturday. What reasonable answer could there be for an advertising company to drastically limit the time that potentially hundreds of millions of users can spend on its website? (Maybe this one: On Saturday, outside developers appeared to discover an unfixed bug in Twitter’s web app that was flooding the network’s own servers with self-requests, to the point that the platform couldn’t function—a problem likely compounded by Twitter’s skeleton crew of engineers. When I reached out for clarification, the company auto-responded with an email containing a poop emoji.)

All the money and trolling can’t hide what’s obvious to anyone who’s been paying attention to his Twitter tenure: Elon Musk is bad at this. His incompetence should unravel his image as a visionary, one whose ambitions extend as far as colonizing Mars. This reputation as a genius, more than his billions, is Musk’s real fortune; it masks the impetuousness he demonstrates so frequently on Twitter. But Musk has spent this currency recklessly. Who in their right mind would explore space with a man who can’t keep a website running?

tapping the sign that just says EVEN SUCCESSFUL PEOPLE DO REALLY STUPID THINGS when it comes to the 'Elon can't be this dumb' conspiracy takes

— James Palmer (@BeijingPalmer) July 1, 2023

How’s it going on this linda https://t.co/7pBCBai5B5

— Gas Stove Prayer Warrior (@canderaid) July 2, 2023

Twitter's servers remain in great health and the elite hardcore engineers are driving all problems before them on all fronts pic.twitter.com/nwuQfFbNGR

— your himbo boyfriend (@swolecialism) July 1, 2023

Without the innovation and genius of silicon valley, it used to take way more than eight months to overpay for a company and then run it into the ground

— your himbo boyfriend (@swolecialism) July 1, 2023

does his business genius know no boundshttps://t.co/VQOvy7TOk2

— Karl Bode (@KarlBode) July 5, 2023

remember when none of this happened pic.twitter.com/AcegfqklVy

— Ed Zitron (@edzitron) July 5, 2023

Late Night Open Thread: So Much Easier to Break Than to BuildPost + Comments (125)

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