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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Teach a man to fish, and he’ll sit in a boat all day drinking beer.

A sufficient plurality of insane, greedy people can tank any democratic system ever devised, apparently.

Let’s not be the monsters we hate.

So very ready.

To the privileged, equality seems like oppression.

Do we throw up our hands or do we roll up our sleeves? (hint, door #2)

fuckem (in honor of the late great efgoldman)

Usually wrong but never in doubt

Only Democrats have agency, apparently.

“Can i answer the question? No you can not!”

I like political parties that aren’t owned by foreign adversaries.

Sadly, there is no cure for stupid.

Within six months Twitter will be fully self-driving.

People identifying as christian while ignoring christ and his teachings is a strange thing indeed.

The willow is too close to the house.

We’re watching the self-immolation of the leading world power on a level unprecedented in human history.

The next time the wall street journal editorial board speaks the truth will be the first.

The way to stop violence is to stop manufacturing the hatred that fuels it.

GOP baffled that ‘we don’t care if you die’ is not a winning slogan.

Historically it was a little unusual for the president to be an incoherent babbling moron.

Republicans want to make it harder to vote and easier for them to cheat.

Relentless negativity is not a sign that you are more realistic.

“But what about the lurkers?”

President Musk and Trump are both poorly raised, coddled 8 year old boys.

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Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

Open Threads

You are here: Home / Archives for Open Threads

Saturday Evening Open Thread: An Ongoing DeSaster

by Anne Laurie|  July 8, 20236:39 pm| 104 Comments

This post is in: 2024 Primaries, Excellent Links, Open Threads, Republican Stupidity, Ron DeSaster, Schadenfreude

if the strategy to introduce your candidate to voters is to hide the candidate from the voters, you might have a really shitty candidate https://t.co/fUNK2P09wZ

— Florida Chris (@chrislongview) July 5, 2023

… DeSantis has been on the campaign trail since May and so far, his poll numbers have not been going in the right direction. We’re still more than six months away from the primary season.

One political expert told 8 On Your Side that things can certainly change — if the campaign’s tactic does…

Tara Newsom is a political analyst. She said DeSantis is not connecting with voters.

“It looks like voters are starting to really get to know him and the more they get to know him, his narrative is a lot different than the man,” Newsom said.

“Gov. DeSantis cannot get within striking reach of Donald Trump and every time he makes a campaign stop, voters seem to step back.”…

Ed Kilgore, at NYMag – “Ron DeSantis Is One Step From Disaster”

If you talk to just about anyone in Republican politics who is not already firmly in the camp of Florida governor Ron DeSantis, you get the sense the man who once inspired comparisons to the triumphant authoritarian Viktor Orban is teetering on the edge of political disaster. Yes, he has tons of money that he’s spending with abandon on Ted Cruz–style field operations in the early states. Yes, he’s finished second and never lower than that in every public poll of the 2024 GOP contest, both nationally and in the states. And yes, having positioned himself as a less erratic and more effective version of the 45th president, he would be the obvious beneficiary of any hypothetical collapse in Donald Trump’s support.

But the fact remains that DeSantis is no closer to the presidential nomination than he was a year ago…

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Trump’s lead over DeSantis in the RCP national polling averages is now 32 points (Trump is at 53 percent; DeSantis is at 21 percent). Worse yet for RDS, he has failed to chase off rivals for the limited non-Trump vote; instead, a massive field has assembled, with every single candidate clearly calculating that DeSantis will stumble and fall. And in the shadowy precincts of GOP donors and validators, the DeSantis campaign is constantly being watched closely and found lacking in some respect or other. Their dismay is clearly reflected in a new assessment from the New York Times:

Mr. DeSantis, who has not shown that he is a natural campaigner, has failed to take off in the polls, and his carefully choreographed public events have offered few headline-generating moments, as his campaign, until recently, has worked to shield him from potentially awkward unscripted interactions with voters and the news media.

Still, the Floridian soldiers on, having made the strategic decision to run to Trump’s right while still claiming (without much evidence other than his now-distant 2022 reelection) superior electability. If he can get through the next few months unscathed, he’ll have a chance to show that all his planning and expensive investments in campaign infrastructure can pay off. But there are several possible developments in the campaign that could send the DeSantis operation into a deadly free fall if he mishandles them…

Read the whole thing (it’s not long) for some delicious possibilities!
 

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) blamed members of media outlets for his sagging poll numbers that have him far behind former President Trump for the lead for the 2024 Republican nomination. https://t.co/Eu6D5iKOWV

— The Hill (@thehill) July 7, 2023


Oh, yeah?

Desatan is killing Florida https://t.co/SZOtzLQkz6

— Steve Weinstein (@steveweinstein) July 8, 2023


From Raw Story, “Experts panic over Florida tourism as major conventions flee state’s ‘unfriendly political environment'”:

… More than half a dozen planned conventions in Broward County, which encompasses the Fort Lauderdale area, have been scrapped in recent months, according to a list drawn up by the county’s tourism promotion group Visit Lauderdale and reported by the South Florida Sun Sentinel.

“We lost this program due to political climate,” Visit Lauderdale notes on a decision by the Supreme Council of America Inc., Ancient & Accepted Scottish Rite Masons to cancel its meeting, planned for August next year. It also canceled 855 hotel rooms

Thousands of dollars are also being lost by restaurants and attractions by visitors going elsewhere.

“We were so close on this one,” read another note on the cancellation of the 2024 National Family and Community Engagement and Community Schools Conference – it also pulled out of more than 2,000 hotel rooms…

The American Specialty Toy Retailing Association had planned a 3,000-person conference in 2026 but is instead headed to Milwaukee.

In a note to Visit Lauderdale, it’s spokesperson Beth Miller cited the “unfriendly political environment in Florida.”

“This would otherwise be such a fabulous destination for the group. I sure hope things become less polarizing soon,” she said…

Ron DeSantis doing his best to realize Florida’s reputation as the northernmost of Latin America’s banana republics. https://t.co/FFva1Cilcy

— Peter Wolf (@peterawolf) July 7, 2023


Trigger warning for academics, not to mention those with friends & relatives in Florida: This is actually a really dispiriting story…

… The Tampa Bay Times reviewed records showing an upward tick in staff departures at some of Florida’s largest universities. And, as the Board of Governors discovered this spring, doubts about the state’s academic workplace are spreading fast.

Matthew Lata, a music professor at Florida State University, told board members that candidates were turning down positions in his college “because of the perceived anti-higher education atmosphere in the state.”

Talk of the phenomenon is everywhere, he said. “More and more often we are hearing ‘Florida? Not Florida. Not now. Not yet.’”…

DeSantis has just cemented his hold on a very particular group of Florida voters, though…

party of men whose lawyers have strongly advised them not to mention their ex-wives during court supervised visitation https://t.co/yF8W2f5vyr

— GOLIKEHELLMACHINE (@golikehellmachi) July 8, 2023

Saturday Evening Open Thread: An Ongoing DeSasterPost + Comments (104)

Saturday Afternoon Open Thread

by Betty Cracker|  July 8, 20233:37 pm| 228 Comments

This post is in: Birdwatching, Open Threads, Our Failed Media Experiment

I was going to go to a preserve this morning to look for Florida Scrub Jays, but it was intermittently rainy — sudden heavy, blinding downpours — and I didn’t feel like driving in that, so I stayed home and watched the waterbirds instead, including Roseate Spoonbills:

Also, a public service announcement for y’all: Avoid Maureen Dowd’s latest column in The Times. It features one of her dimwit sibling’s opinion on what Joe Biden should do about a family matter that’s really nobody else’s damn business.

Like Tom Friedman and the homespun “wisdom” of innumerable taxi drivers, Dowd conjures up opinions from Repub siblings to give voice to dumb, gossipy shit that maybe even she dimly senses is beneath the notice of a long-tenured columnist at the Paper of Record.™️

Dowd has been unoriginal, cloying, snipey and tedious for so long that I can’t remember if she was ever anything else, but this is a new low, even for her. Zero stars!

Open thread.

PS: I originally titled this post “Sunday Afternoon Open Thread” but caught it before publishing. This day feels like a Sunday for some reason, but I am overjoyed to recall that another entire day of glorious indolence stretches out before me. Woohoo!

Saturday Afternoon Open ThreadPost + Comments (228)

Saturday Morning Open Thread: Chaos Agents Everywhere

by Anne Laurie|  July 8, 20237:53 am| 236 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Women's Rights Are Human Rights, Our Failed Media Experiment, social media

Lady, even if the bag *was* clearly name-tagged, the Secret Service is never giving it back.

Reporter: Can you just say once and for all whether or not the cocaine belonged to the Biden family?

KJP: They were not here on Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday so to ask that question is incredibly irresponsible.. pic.twitter.com/lZJ4mOfZRY

— Acyn (@Acyn) July 7, 2023

(Yeah, like you didn’t have the same thought. Although Barbie Jacket there doesn’t look like a coke user to me… my first thought was that one of the pressroom Kewl Kidz put her up to it, knowing she no doubt has a lifetime history of being pranked this way.)

The reason this is being reported on so thoroughly is because it actually belongs to a member of the White House press corps and they want it back https://t.co/5et3ExMDaI

— Danny Gold (@DGisSERIOUS) July 5, 2023

Genuinely good news — at least a first step:

Maine's governor this week signed the nation's first law to partially decriminalize sex work — after a call from Gloria Steinem.

From the Post’s new Stern fellow – @alexandraheal https://t.co/zf2bEQy7QS

— Carol Leonnig (@CarolLeonnig) July 1, 2023

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Been saying for a while that the ultimate problem at the NYT is that it’s run by the Sulzberger kid, & he’s an apolitical soft headed dolt. https://t.co/OAq9e0tPuu

— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) July 6, 2023

I keep telling y'all, Republicans are imploding actively and all we have to do is keep trying to do good things.

This is why the ratfucker "don't vote Dem" accounts are out *A WHOLE-ASS YEAR BEFORE THE PRIMARIES*.https://t.co/tf7ggzIWsR

— Michael Paulauski (@mike10010100) July 6, 2023

Major Republican donors to the Arizona and Michigan Republican Parties, who have each donated tens of thousands of dollars to the parties over the last six years, have ceased supplying funding because of Republican leaders’ attempts to overturn 2020 election results, their support of losing candidates who tout Trump’s election conspiracy theories and what they consider extreme views on issues like abortion, six benefactors told Reuters. “I question whether the state party has the necessary expertise to spend the money well,” real estate mogul Ron Weiser, one of the Michigan party’s biggest donors and a former chair of the party, told the outlet.

Despite Republicans’ efforts to ramp up support in order to win back the battleground states that could determine whether they regain political power in the 2024 election, Arizona and Michigan’s parties have been bleeding money in recent years, according to the outlet’s review of financial filings and interviews with the donors and three election campaign experts. Arizona’s Republican Party on March 31 had less than $50,000 in cash reserves in its state and federal bank accounts to spend on overhead expenses, compared to the $770,000 it had at the same point four years ago. And as of March 31, the total in the Michigan party’s federal account amounted to $116,000, down from the nearly $867,000 it had two years ago. “They are effectively broke, and I don’t see the clouds parting and the sun coming out on their fundraising abilities,” Jason Roe, the former head of the Michigan GOP, told the outlet…

This is why Dems should be as liberal on immigration as they want.

The right is always going to shriek about foreign hordes “invading” and how the U.S. border with Mexico is a fiction which needs to be actualized as some cross between the Great Wall of China and a WWI trench. https://t.co/mOW4yO8WJq

— Peter Wolf (@peterawolf) July 7, 2023

An update on my query from yesterday’s Morning Open Thread:

‘Vague’ injunction on social media should be stayed, Justice Dept. says https://t.co/o0NKMwbexL

— Elizabeth Kelly (@Lizbeth27Kelly) July 8, 2023

… The government team asked for a stay to be granted by July 10 until the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit rules on the Justice Department’s planned appeal of the injunction, or else that Doughty stay the order for a week to allow time for a faster emergency appeal.

The six-page motion argues that parts of the order contradict each other, such as a prohibition on some officials speaking publicly about false social media posts conflicting with a provision that nothing should stop officials from exercising their own right to free speech.

It also said that the government would suffer irreparable harm while the injunction remained in effect, while the plaintiffs were citing old conduct and would not.

“The potential breadth of the entities and employees covered by the injunction combined with the injunction’s sweeping substantive scope will chill a wide range of lawful government conduct relating to Defendants’ law enforcement responsibilities, obligations to protect the national security, and prerogative to speak on matters of public concern,” the Justice Department wrote.

On Wednesday, The Washington Post reported that the State Department had canceled a regular meeting with Facebook parent Meta to discuss foreign influence campaigns that both sides track. The State Department confirmed the cancellation Thursday.

Saturday Morning Open Thread: Chaos Agents EverywherePost + Comments (236)

War for Ukraine Day 499: A Note of Clarification

by Adam L Silverman|  July 7, 20238:58 pm| 53 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

A quick point of clarification from last night’s post. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, who Haass and company have reportedly been meeting with, has not actual power or authority. The Russian Foreign Ministry itself, and Lavrov as its head, are basically there for show. They’re there because Russia has to have a foreign ministry to formally conduct diplomacy. But Lavrov isn’t an oligarch, nor is he siloviki or Bratva or a vory. He’s diplomatic cover for how Russia actually uses its diplomatic power as a weapon. Meeting with him may make headlines, it may provide Russia with material for its agitprop and disinformation campaigns, but that’s about it.

Someone, anyone’s, or for the atheists no one’s Deity or Deities save us from the useless idiots!

My understanding is that there are a number of non-governmental meetings involving US-Russia contacts, and none are encouraged, authorised or used by the US government. In fact, most of them have clarified just how unlikely any sort of deal is. https://t.co/RLaSqKEKZn

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) July 7, 2023

The useless idiots being Haass and his fellow travelers.

President Zelenskyy was once again on official travel today. There is no daily address posted, but I do have the videos of his press conference with Czech PM Petr Fiala and and Slovak Republic President Zuzana Čaputová. They are below and the English subtitles are turned on.

Everything else after the jump!

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The new US military aid package has been announced. Here’s the press release from the Pentagon:

RELEASE
IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine
July 7, 2023

Today, the Department of Defense (DoD) announced additional security assistance to meet Ukraine’s critical security and defense needs. This authorization is the Biden Administration’s forty-second drawdown of equipment from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021. This package will provide Ukraine with additional artillery systems and ammunition, including highly effective and reliable dual-purpose improved conventional munitions (DPICM), on which the Administration conducted extensive consultations with Congress and our Allies and partners. It also includes additional air defense munitions, armored vehicles, anti-armor weapons, and other equipment to help Ukraine protect its people and counter Russia’s ongoing war of aggression.

The capabilities in this package include:

  • Additional munitions for Patriot air defense systems;
  • AIM-7 missiles for air defense;
  • Stinger anti-aircraft systems;
  • Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
  • 31 155mm Howitzers;
  • 155mm artillery rounds, including DPICM, and 105mm artillery rounds;
  • 32 Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles;
  • 32 Stryker Armored Personnel Carriers;
  • Mine clearing equipment;
  • Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
  • Javelin and other anti-armor systems and rockets;
  • Precision aerial munitions;
  • Penguin Unmanned Aerial Systems;
  • 27 tactical vehicles to recover equipment;
  • 10 tactical vehicles to tow and haul equipment;
  • Demolitions munitions and systems for obstacle clearing;
  • Small arms and over 28 million rounds of small arms ammunition and grenades;
  • Spare parts and other field equipment.

The United States will continue to work with its Allies and partners to provide Ukraine with capabilities to meet its immediate battlefield needs and longer-term security assistance requirements.

A timely, broad and much-needed defense aid package from the United States. We are grateful to the American people and President Joseph Biden @POTUS for decisive steps that bring Ukraine closer to victory over the enemy, and democracy to victory over dictatorship. The expansion…

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) July 7, 2023

Any and all weapons and types of ammo that we receive from our partners are used for only one purpose: to destroy russian occupiers and expel them from Ukraine.
Thank you to @SecDef Lloyd J. Austin III, U.S. Government and all Americans for another package of security… pic.twitter.com/Ja7ewNZ86k

— Oleksii Reznikov (@oleksiireznikov) July 7, 2023

Full text of the tweet:

Any and all weapons and types of ammo that we receive from our partners are used for only one purpose: to destroy russian occupiers and expel them from Ukraine. Thank you to @SecDefLloyd J. Austin III, U.S. Government and all Americans for another package of security assistance!

The US is not the only NATO member to announce new military aid for Ukraine this week. First up the Czech Republic: (machine translation)

The Czech Republic will soon hand over helicopters and ammunition to Ukraine, as well as take part in the training of pilots, including F-16 fighters.

This was stated by the Prime Minister of the Czech Republic Petr Fiala at a joint press conference with the President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky on Friday in Prague, according to a correspondent Ukrinform.

« He confirmed to the President today that the Czech Republic is giving Ukraine … helicopters, and in the coming months will hand over 100,000 large-caliber ammunition», Fiala said.

He also informed that the Czech Republic will take part in the training of pilots, including on F-16 fighters, and will also hand over simulators so that pilots can study in Ukraine.

Fiala reminded that Czech Republic is one of the most active « assistants » of Ukraine in all areas – financial, economic, humanitarian, as well as one of the largest suppliers of military equipment and amunition.

In almost 500 days, the republic transferred 676 units of heavy equipment and more than 4 million ammunition.

«This means that every day since the beginning of the war from the Czech Republic to Ukraine, an average of 10,000 units of ammonia and at least one tank, ZRK, special car and the like are sent », – calculated the head of the government of the Czech Republic.

He added that Prague is also working with other partners in this direction, in particular with regard to the repair of heavy machinery at Czech enterprises of the MIC. As an example, he introduced the repair of T-72 tanks together with the Netherlands.

The Prime Minister informed that the government’s meeting with entrepreneurs discussed the issue of joint production of Czech and Ukrainian defense firms. He called these projects important, such as those that could strengthen the state’s combat capabilities. This is no longer help, but cooperation, the politician said.

The head of the Czech government assured that he considers Ukraine’s support to be one of the priorities of his work.

Ukraine’s security is Europe’s security, Ukraine is fighting for the security of the entire continent, Fiala stressed. He promised « very intensively » to continue to support Ukraine both on the path to Victory and post-war reconstruction.

As reported, a Memorandum of Understanding was signed in Prague during the visit between the Ministry of Strategic Industries of Ukraine and the Ministry of Defense of the Czech Republic on cooperation in the field of defense industry.

Finland is not to be left out.

Press Releases
06.07.2023 13:45

Finland to send more defence materiel to Ukraine

Finland will deliver more defence materiel to Ukraine. The President of the Republic decided on the matter on 6 July 2023 on the proposal of the Government.

This will be the 17th package of defence materiel to Ukraine, including anti-aircraft weapons and ammunition, among other items. Replacing the defence materiel capabilities in this package will cost Finland an estimated EUR 105 million. The combined value of all defence materiel packages submitted so far is about EUR 1.2 billion.

– We will continue to support Ukraine together with our allies. The outcome of the war will determine the security order of Europe and Finland for decades, which is why supporting Ukraine is an essential part of Finland’s security, says Minister of Defence Antti Häkkänen.

For operational reasons and to ensure that the delivery reaches its destination, more detailed information on the content of the assistance, manner of delivery or schedule will not be provided. Both Ukraine’s needs and the resources of the Defence Forces have been taken into account when deciding on the additional assistance.

 

We welcome the decision of the US to provide Ukraine with the new liberation weapons that will significantly help us to de-occupy our territories while saving the lives of the Ukrainian soldiers.

Under Article 51 of the UN Charter Ukraine has a universal internationally…

— Oleksii Reznikov (@oleksiireznikov) July 7, 2023

Full text of this tweet too:

We welcome the decision of the US to provide Ukraine with the new liberation weapons that will significantly help us to de-occupy our territories while saving the lives of the Ukrainian soldiers.

Under Article 51 of the UN Charter Ukraine has a universal internationally recognised right to self-defence and thus we have been officially requesting these types of munitions for a long time.
I would like to stress that in exercising our inalienable right to self-defence we will continue to strictly comply with all the international humanitarian conventions signed and ratified by Ukraine.

It is important to note that the russian federation has been indiscriminately using cluster munitions from day 1 of the unprovoked large-scale aggression. In February-March 2022 Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city with over a million population, was relentlessly bombarded by russians cluster munitions.

Our position is simple – we need to liberate our temporarily occupied territories and save the lives of our people. For this we need to inflict losses on the enemy – war criminals, rapists and looters – who are occupying our territories. The more losses we inflict on them the more lives of Ukrainian people we will be able to save.

It is in our interest to save the lives of our soldiers. This is why we will continue to do this using all lethal weapons available to us.

Regarding the cluster munitions, we have 5 key principles which we will abide by and which we have clearly communicated to all our partners, including the US. I have personally informed our US partners about these five principles in writing a long time ago.

1. Ukraine will use these munitions only for the de-occupation of our internationally recognised territories. These munitions will not be used on the officially recognized territory of russia.

2. We will not be using cluster munitions in urban areas (cities) to avoid the risks for the civilian populations – these are our people, they are Ukrainians we have a duty to protect.
Cluster munitions will be used only in the fields where there is a concentration of russian military. They will be used to break through the enemy defence lines with minimum risk for the lives of our soldiers. Saving the lives of our troops, even during extremely difficult offensive operations, remains our top priority.

3. Ukraine will keep a strict record of the use of these weapons and the local zones where they will be used.

4. Based on these records, after the de-occupation of our territories and our victory these territories will be prioritised for the purposes of de-mining. This will enable us to eradicate the risk from the unexploded elements of cluster munitions.
The Minister of Defence of Ukraine is by law acting as the Head of the national de-mining agency. In this capacity I will ensure the implementation of the relevant legal framework for the de-mining process after our victory.

5. We will report to our partners about the use of these munitions, and about their efficiency to ensure the appropriate standard of transparent reporting and control.

https://defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3451570/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

What Ukraine’s defense minister says below about Russia using cluster munitions indiscriminately in its full-scale invasion is accurate. But you can go as far back as 2014 to see that Russia has used them that way. I easily recall a deadly Feb 2015 cluster attack on Kramatorsk… https://t.co/WNR8FImdkQ

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) July 7, 2023

Here’s The Kyiv Independent‘s Illia Ponomarenko’s take on the cluster munitions. Full text copied and pasted below the tweet.

Speaking of all the drama over cluster munitions for Ukraine.

Let's resume this conversation when all those critics sitting in their comfortable air-conditioned offices somewhere in the West find themselves in a situation:

– when their nations have to fight an existential war…

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) July 6, 2023

Speaking of all the drama over cluster munitions for Ukraine.

Let’s resume this conversation when all those critics sitting in their comfortable air-conditioned offices somewhere in the West find themselves in a situation:

– when their nations have to fight an existential war against an adversary enjoying overwhelming supremacy in artillery and air power, with a far larger economy and population, with a totalitarian political regime that knows no bounds and is ready to spend any amount of cannon fodder, including suicidal convicts and mercenaries.

– when they see their own hometowns wiped off the earth along with their population and proudly proclaimed as “liberated”

– when their nations have to mobilize way over 1 million men and women to the military and to try and keep their shattered economy at least somewhat afloat while trying to stay as free and democratic as possible

– when they have to wake up in the dead of night due to missile and drone attacks and hope it’s not about their neighborhood and their house right here and now, and when they realize this is not going to end until the war is over

– when they realize the ongoing war has inflicted major damage to their country’s critical infrastructure and that it continues throwing the nation decades back in time

– when their military & political leadership has to spend endless months begging for weapons and assistance for their war effort, paying with the lives of their soldiers for every day in deliberations and risk management. Just to get at least something and go on saving the country.

– when their militaries have to break through one of the hardest systems of ground fortification in modern history, having to use as little as they managed to get, losing soldiers and vehicles due to a dire lack of air support and endless minefields the enemy had so much time to prepare

– when they all realize that their military has come so far against all the odds, but if it ultimately fails, their nations are absolutely done, they will all highly likely find themselves in pits with bullets in the back of their heads.

Now THEN I’d be very interested if they think their militaries need cluster munitions to go on fighting.

And speaking of civilian safety — the Ukrainian military in this war has repeatedly proven to be generally careful and discriminate when it comes to the use of weapons — well, to the extent possible in such a high-intensity war.

Especially in contrast with the bloodbath that Russia commits in this country on a daily basis.

So, dear ladies and gentlemen, I am very curious about why certain organizations overtly accuse Ukraine of putting civilians in war zones in jeopardy with cluster munitions before Ukraine even gets these munitions.

The entire discourse surrounding the potential supply of cluster munitions to Ukraine just demonstrates how to the majority of Westerners the concept of an “existential” war is so alien as to be beyond even imagination.

— Jimmy Rushton (@JimmySecUK) July 7, 2023

And this assumption is the first argument HRW makes when talking about cluster munitions.

“Cluster munitions were designed for use in the Cold War, specifically for the large-scale bombardment of massed tank and infantry formations”.

Exactly the war Ukraine is fighting. pic.twitter.com/MmNLw6zbLw

— Jimmy Rushton (@JimmySecUK) July 7, 2023

It is so strange that those who are now so triggered by the U.S. transfer of cluster munitions to Ukraine just couldn’t care less when Russia was pounding Ukraine with cluster munitions in the first place.
Must be nothing but pure coincidence.

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) July 7, 2023

 

With a heated discussions about the U.S. now providing cluster ammunition to #Ukraine, it is worth remembering that Russia relentlessly shelled civilian areas with those in the past months. Here is the cemetery of RU cluster shells from the Kharkiv region. Photo from @Liberov pic.twitter.com/KcSzwlalKP

— Mattia Nelles (@mattia_n) July 7, 2023

.@KofmanMichael: for Ukraine, artillery ammo is "like sand in an hourglass." Cluster bombs "will eliminate much of the time pressure by opening up a large tranche of ammo to keep the offensive going" and they're "far more significant" than other recently acquired western arms. https://t.co/LYyTkXNKQA

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) July 7, 2023

Ponomarenko’s take on Ukraine’s potential NATO membership is also right:

The shamelessness of Kremlin bootlickers has no bounds, and they still think we are all this stupid after all those things that happened since 2014.

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) July 7, 2023

Let’s face the reality — NATO just can’t let us in right now as the war goes on.

But — even the world’s biggest slowpokes should now realize that “the door is open, but….” excuse just doesn’t work and never will.

So if we talk about serious things, there need to be at least…

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) July 7, 2023

Full text:

Let’s face the reality — NATO just can’t let us in right now as the war goes on.

But — even the world’s biggest slowpokes should now realize that “the door is open, but….” excuse just doesn’t work and never will.

So if we talk about serious things, there need to be at least two things declared and enshrined loud and clear:

– Ukraine joins NATO as soon as physically possible following the current war’s formal ending as part of Europe’s postwar security reconstruction plan that must be on the table by now;
– Ukraine is to get a membership plan ASAP, which should be declared as soon as the upcoming NATO summit;

Without this, I don’t know what else the West is waiting for and what sort of new arguments it needs, given the tragic lessons of 2014 and 2022.

You don’t like to deal with the biggest European war since WWII — then you don’t encourage the aggressor.

For some weird reason, Russia did not attack the Baltic nations, but it took its time to make use of Western weakness and shortsightedness and made sure Ukraine was not covered by Article 5.

You know what’s the outcome.

At the same time, it’s very fair to say that Ukraine, in this postwar reconstruction, is just destined to go on developing as a major and modern military power for endless decades to come.

Without this, it’s going to be just a matter of time before Russia may want to take sweet revenge and try again, having fixed its past mistakes.

 

"I will come soon, my baby girl."

Our heroes have been freed from russian captivity. They are returning to their families.
Ukraine will continue to make every effort to release our brave men and women who have been captured by the occupiers.

🎥Telegram: @DPSUkr pic.twitter.com/xZ87sdEnx2

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 7, 2023

Bakhmut:

BAKHMUT AXIS / 2345 UTC 7 JUL/ Front line sources indicate that UKR has advanced from the hilltops overlooking the village of Klischiivka. Contact is now reported along the rail right of way to the east of the village. pic.twitter.com/FKIn87mZRs

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) July 7, 2023

The butcher’s bill from Lviv:

Щойно знайшли 10 тіло. Жінка.
Зараз надзвичайники вивільняють загиблу від завалів.
На цьому рятувально-пошукову операцію буде завершено.

— Андрій Садовий (@AndriySadovyi) July 7, 2023

Here’s the machine translation of Lviv Mayor Saovyi’s tweet:

10 bodies have just been found. Woman. Emergency workers are now freeing the deceased from the rubble. This will complete the search and rescue operation.

Sorokyne, Luhansk Oblast:

/2. More footages from Sorokyne area. pic.twitter.com/yaPY9Cs5tA

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 7, 2023

Russia tested disconnecting itself from the Internet. Again. First tweet from the thread, everything else from the Thread Reader App. Then a couple of tweets with an update and questions and answers.

‼️ Last night, Russia tested disconnecting itself from the global internet.

On June 5, around 2-4am Moscow time, 🇷🇺 authorities tested the Sovereign Internet system which led to disruptions of various websites & government infrastructure services 1/https://t.co/SvNWvlD28P

— Natalia Krapiva 👩🏻‍💻🕊 (@natynettle) July 6, 2023

2/ Russian railroad services and food safety systems were reportedly disrupted after the Sovereign Internet testing on the morning of July 5

Системы РЖД и Россельхознадзора рухнули после учений по «суверенному интернету» – Русская служба The Moscow Timeshttps://www.moscowtimes.ru/2023/07/05/sistemi-rzhd-i-rosselhoznadzora-ruhnuli-posle-uchenii-po-suverennomu-internetu-a48028

3/ Experts also reported various disruption of Western internet services such as @Google @Wikipedia @getlantern @PsiphonInc between 2 and 4am Moscow time on July 5

knopki 👾☮ in DistributedХочу рассказать прохладную историю про чебурнет. Проснулся в 3:40 сегодня ночью и увидел уведомление на телефоне от DAVx5 о том, что он с двух часов не может достучаться до сервера (Hetzner, Германия)…https://t.me/distributed/263189

4/ Given the fears of blocking of YouTube, Telegram, and the last remaining sources of accurate information in Russia, this development is extremely alarming #KeepItOn

5/ the first tweet should say *July 5* of course, not June 

6/ This is not the 1st time Russia tested its Sovereign Internet system resulting in outages

@thebell_io reported that some internet providers in Ural region experienced disruptions during the testing of the 🇷🇺 Sovereign Internet’s DPI equipment in 2019

«Сеть легла»: как прошел тестовый запуск «суверенного рунета»Сегодня вступает в силу закон о «суверенном рунете», кардинально расширяющий возможности Роскомнадзора по блокировке интернет-ресурсов. Пользователям это ничего хорошего не обещает: при тестировании нhttps://thebell.io/set-legla-kak-proshel-testovyj-zapusk-suverennogo-runeta

7/ Russian internet experts tell me they doubt Roskomnadzor’s claim that the Sovereign Internet testing was “successful” as the documented internet outages were scattered & not wide scale.

Sounds like Putin won’t be able to isolate 🇷🇺 people any time soon, but he’ll keep trying 

8/ Some experts are understandably questioning why would Russia block its own governmental services in attempt to disconnect from the global internet.

Well, this will not be the first time Russian gov tries to do something evil & instead ends up making a total fool of itself…

Why would Russia disconnecting itself from the global internet cause Russians to be unable to reach their govt websites?

Every couple of years there is a story about Russia disconnecting itself from the internet and there isn't much data to support that.

— Doug Madory (also on Bluesky) (@DougMadory) July 6, 2023

This is exactly the point, Doug!

Just like with Telegram in 2018 & Twitter in 2021, Russian government’s censorship attempts often result in blocking of their own websites like Kremlin & Duma.

You underestimate Russia’s infinite ability to screw up 😏https://t.co/anS9Jwdnug

— Natalia Krapiva 👩🏻‍💻🕊 (@natynettle) July 6, 2023

Well Roskomnadzor claims the disconnecting testing was “successful” (whatever that means), but only localized outages were recorded, which is good news

As the Russian expression goes, “We aspired for better (in this case likely for worse), but it turned out as it always does.”

— Natalia Krapiva 👩🏻‍💻🕊 (@natynettle) July 6, 2023

Here’s some excerpts from (one of) the obituaries for Victoria Amelina. The author is a professor of Ukrainian and east European culture and, from what I can gather, a friend of the deceased.

Victoria Amelina, who was wounded in a Russian missile attack in Kramatorsk in eastern Ukraine on 27 June and died, aged 37, of her injuries four days later, knew that being a writer made her a target for Russia. She was aware that the invading forces had lists of activists and intellectuals to eliminate, but she also understood her country’s history: in March 2022, summoning one of the darkest pages in Ukrainian literary history – the murder of a generation of Ukrainian writers during the Stalinist purges of the 1930s, known as the “executed renaissance” – she wrote that “there is a real threat that Russians will successfully execute another generation of Ukrainian culture – this time by missiles and bombs”.

Victoria sought to protect and promote Ukrainian culture as the country came under attack: in 2021 she founded a literature festival in her husband Oleksandr’s home town, New York, in the Donetsk region. The town (whose unlikely name is thought to have been originally Neu Jork and to have come from 19th-century German settlers) was occupied by the Russian army in 2014 and has been on the frontline ever since.

As the assault on Ukraine and its culture unfolded, Victoria set aside fiction writing and trained as a war crimes investigator with the Ukrainian human rights group Truth Hounds. She travelled to areas liberated from Russian occupation and recorded the testimonies of witnesses and survivors. The crimes she investigated included the murder of fellow writers such as Volodymyr Vakulenko, whose occupation diaries Victoria discovered buried in his family’s garden and helped to have published this year.

Victoria’s missions to the east of Ukraine took their toll. She had recently, reluctantly, decided to take a break from her war crimes work and accepted a scholarship from Columbia University, New York, for a year’s writing residency in Paris. Having met a group of Colombian writers in Kyiv who were keen to visit the war-affected areas, however, she volunteered to accompany them for one last trip. They were dining together when a missile hit their restaurant.

Before Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Victoria had been known not as a human rights defender, but as a novelist and children’s writer. After completing a degree in computer sciences at Lviv Polytechnic National University and working for several years in IT, she became a full-time writer in 2015, after the publication of her debut novel, The Fall Syndrome (2014).

It was her second novel, Dom’s Dream Kingdom (2017), that cemented her status as a major new talent. The novel, which is currently being translated into English, explores the troubled past of Victoria’s hometown, Lviv, through the story of one family from the end of the second world war to post-independence Ukraine. It was shortlisted for several Ukrainian and international awards, including the European Union prize for literature.

Victoria is survived by Oleksandr and their son, and her parents.

 Victoria Amelina, writer and war crimes investigator, born 1 January 1986; died 1 July 2023

There is much more at the link.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1677426294185762817

That’s more than enough for tonight.

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Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 499: A Note of ClarificationPost + Comments (53)

Look There is a Lot Going On In the World

by John Cole|  July 7, 20234:27 pm| 134 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Clown Shoes

But all I can focus on right now is Casey Desantis’s eyebrows. I know it is 2023 and we are not supposed to talk about physical appearances but this shit is weirding me the fuck out:
Look There is a Lot Going On In the World

Look There is a Lot Going On In the World 1

Look There is a Lot Going On In the World 2

Her eyebrows look like they are about to launch a surprise attack on her face. And when she is standing next to her husband in his lifts and ill tailored suits, they look like a total freak show.

Look There is a Lot Going On In the WorldPost + Comments (134)

We Fight Back (You’re Damn Right We Do)

by Betty Cracker|  July 7, 202311:49 am| 269 Comments

This post is in: Elections 2024, LGBTQ Rights Are Human Rights, Open Threads, Politics

The latest Hail Mary from the flailing DeSantis for President campaign is the launch of “Mamas for DeSantis,” kicked off with this grotesque video that urges “mamas and grandmamas from every corner of the nation” to support Casey DeSantis’s fascist fart-sack of a husband.

The repellant video recycles threadbare canards about mask mandates, transwomen in sports, and diversity, inclusion and equity initiatives in education. To me, the most striking thing is the dangerous escalation of anti-LGBTQ rhetoric, with the video misleadingly depicting hordes of chanting queer people as a menace to “our children’s innocence” to set up the slogan: “When you come after our kids, we fight back.”

It’s helpful for the DeSantis for President campaign to foment a moral panic around vulnerable children because, if you don’t care who gets hurt or killed along the way, it can be an effective method of manufacturing enthusiasm that is otherwise absent because, say, your candidate is a lumpen dud who inspires nobody. Panics can get people to check their brains at the door and join a mindless mob, which is why all fascists employ the tactic.

But even though Casey DeSantis and her awful husband are lying about the source of the danger, there’s truth to the notion that moms fight back when someone comes after their kids. Maybe by flogging this fake moral panic about imaginary queer hordes menacing children, Team DeSantis will motivate the moms whose children are actually being menaced, silenced and oppressed: those of us with LGBTQ kids.

It’s happened before. Earlier this year, The New Yorker published a gem of an article: “How One Mother’s Love for Her Gay Son Started a Revolution.” It’s about Jeanne Manford, an unassuming New York City school teacher who, along with her husband Jules and 21-year-old son Morty, founded PFLAG in 1973.

The Manfords’ story is truly beautiful and tragic and inspiring, and I urge you all to read the whole thing if you can, but here’s an excerpt that resonates for me today:

“You would meet Jeanne Manford and you would never in a million years guess what she had in her,” Eric Marcus, the author of the 1992 book “Making Gay History” and now the host of a podcast by the same name, told me. “But as I came to know her I always felt that what was in her mind was ‘Don’t fuck with my Morty.’ ”

As The New Yorker notes, “In the sixties and seventies, fighting for the rights of queer people was considered radical activism. To Jeanne Manford, it was just part of being a parent.” Also: Jeanne Manford didn’t try to change her son; she changed the world instead.

So here we are 50 years later, and Repubs are trying to roll back the hard-won progress of people like the heroic Jeanne, Jules and Morty Manford by smearing queer people with lies and oppressing them with unjust laws. Children are indeed under attack in Florida, but it’s not the DeSantis children.

It’s kids like mine who are being silenced, oppressed and menaced and driven away, and the wife of the person leading that charge and trying to take it nationwide is exhorting “mamas and grandmamas” to fight back. Be careful what you wish for, Mrs. DeSantis. Also, don’t fuck with my kiddo.

We Fight Back (You’re Damn Right We Do)Post + Comments (269)

TGIFriday Morning Open Thread: Busy Little Bees

by Anne Laurie|  July 7, 20237:25 am| 276 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, social media

I assume no one can see this post but a bee tried to pollinate this hat today https://t.co/D1Pj4T35FM

— love & barley ?????? (@loveandbarley1) July 1, 2023

BREAKING: the US economy is doing pretty damn well https://t.co/7eShgLvbcY

— John Harwood (@JohnJHarwood) July 7, 2023

Wow, the Biden Regime is lying and says inflation is down to about four percent when the more reliable private sector data says it's actually much lower. https://t.co/wCsGtidoce

— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) July 3, 2023

When Trump AND @marwilliamson Both tell you that they are going to "turn the economy around" and do a "180".. this is what they want to stop …. This is the opposite of what they want to do.. https://t.co/h8EnZAKxj1

— Hal Sparks (@HalSparks) July 6, 2023

TGIFriday Morning Open Thread 2

show full post on front page

Anyone with a better grasp of The Cyber want to comment on this ruling?

A federal judge is limiting the Biden administration's discussions with social media companies as part of a lawsuit alleging the U.S. overstepped in its efforts to persuade companies to address postings on vaccines and elections. https://t.co/UB1L8Bt8RD

— The Associated Press (@AP) July 4, 2023

A judge on Tuesday prohibited several federal agencies and officials of the Biden administration from working with social media companies about “protected speech,” a decision called “a blow to censorship” by one of the Republican officials whose lawsuit prompted the ruling.

U.S. District Judge Terry Doughty of Louisiana granted the injunction in response to a 2022 lawsuit brought by attorneys general in Louisiana and Missouri. Their lawsuit alleged that the federal government overstepped in its efforts to convince social media companies to address postings that could result in vaccine hesitancy during the COVID-19 pandemic or affect elections.

Doughty cited “substantial evidence” of a far-reaching censorship campaign. He wrote that the “evidence produced thus far depicts an almost dystopian scenario. During the COVID-19 pandemic, a period perhaps best characterized by widespread doubt and uncertainty, the United States Government seems to have assumed a role similar to an Orwellian ‘Ministry of Truth’ ”…

The Justice Department is reviewing the injunction “and will evaluate its options in this case,” said a White House official who was not authorized to discuss the case publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity.

“This administration has promoted responsible actions to protect public health, safety, and security when confronted by challenges like a deadly pandemic and foreign attacks on our elections,” the official said. “Our consistent view remains that social media platforms have a critical responsibility to take account of the effects their platforms are having on the American people, but make independent choices about the information they present.”

The ruling listed several government agencies, including the Department of Health and Human Services and the FBI, that are prohibited by the injunction from discussions with social media companies aimed at “encouraging, pressuring, or inducing in any manner the removal, deletion, suppression, or reduction of content containing protected free speech.”…

The plaintiffs in the lawsuit also included individuals, including conservative website owner Jim Hoft. The lawsuit accused the administration of using the possibility of favorable or unfavorable regulatory action to coerce social media platforms to squelch what it considered misinformation on masks and vaccines during the COVID-19 pandemic. It also touched on other topics, including claims about election integrity and news stories about material on a laptop owned by Hunter Biden, the president’s son…

Are we still allowed to call Hoft ‘The Dumbest Man on the Internet‘?

Alternate headline: "Trump Judge Bars FBI From Warning Social Media Sites About Sex Abuse and Terrorism" https://t.co/WE4ZgqVw8C

— Dan Froomkin (PressWatchers.org) (@froomkin) July 4, 2023

TGIFriday Morning Open Thread: Busy Little BeesPost + Comments (276)

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