Russia is preparing for winter, and Ukraine should focus on defense and response to terrorists – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

12 November 2023 – 20:44

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Every time another week of the war – our defense, our active steps – comes to an end, it is important to say one thing: thank you.

Thank you to everyone who defends our country and gives Ukraine the opportunity to be truly Ukraine: itself, a vibrant and powerful country. It is important to thank everyone who fights for the sake of the state, everyone who helps fight and who champions Ukraine’s interests in the world. Everyone who trains our soldiers, who treats them, who develops our combat medicine and our military production, who provides our people with everything they need. We must always realize how many people are involved in the defense of Ukraine and Ukrainians. And each of these people is important, all of them together are the Ukrainian force. First of all, these are our warriors. Those who physically restrain the enemy, who destroy the occupier, who protect us from Russian missiles and drones.

And today I would like to especially recognize the units of our National Guard of Ukraine, which are fighting alongside all defense and security forces. Fighting vigorously, strongly, and effectively.

I thank you, warriors! The 3rd and 14th operational brigades of the National Guard, involved in the offensive in the south. The 12th brigade of the National Guard – the eastern direction. The guys are holding their ground and defending every meter of Ukrainian land. Thank you for your strength! Thank you for repelling the Russian assaults! The 4th operational brigade of the National Guard – fighting in the Bakhmut sector. I am especially grateful to the artillery and anti-aircraft gunners of the 4th brigade. Well done to you guys! And, of course, the Avdiivka sector: the National Guard’s special forces units are fighting heroically there alongside all our warriors. Thank you for your resilience, guys!

It’s also important to remember the warriors and units of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine, who are fighting alongside everyone else as part of the defense forces on the frontline, as well as protecting our border and ensuring the safety of border traffic. They are not often talked about, but they are also doing a great job.

Donetsk region, Avdiivka sector – I thank the warriors of the Zhytomyr border guard detachment. Senior sergeants Nazar Siryi and Serhiy Solozhuk particularly distinguished themselves. Lyman sector – I thank the guys from the Izmail border guard detachment. And special thanks to Chief Sergeant Oleksandr Atmazhov and Senior Sergeant Yurii Panasenko. Thank you for your bravery! And the Dozor special forces unit, which performs missions in various areas. I thank all of you guys! I would also like to mention the border guards of the Sumy detachment – thank you for protecting us from saboteurs and for shooting down Russian drones!

We are almost halfway through November and we must be prepared for the possibility that the enemy may increase the number of drone or missile strikes against our infrastructure. Russia is preparing for winter. And in Ukraine, all our attention should be focused on defense, on response to terrorists, on everything Ukraine can do to make it easier for our people to get through this winter and to increase the capabilities of our troops.

I thank all our partners who have helped Ukraine with air defense. These are different countries: the United States, Germany, France, Britain, Norway, Italy, Romania, Sweden, the Netherlands, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Poland, the Baltic States and other countries. Patriot, NASAMS, IRIS-T, RAVEN, Hawk, and other systems. We can’t talk openly about everything now, but the Ukrainian sky shield is already more powerful compared to last year. It has greater capabilities, but unfortunately, it does not yet fully protect the entire territory. And we are working to make it even better. Every country, every leader who helps us bolster our air defense helps protect lives. And I urge all Ukrainians, all those whose voice is heard in the world, our journalists, all those who support Ukraine in the world, to help boost the defense. To help! We are capable of overcoming the most difficult challenges. But only together, in unity, when we take care of each other and when millions of people help their defenders and their country. It is imperative to be united and grateful.

Glory to our people – the people of Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

Germany:

Confirmed! The German Minister of Defence Boris Pistorius confirms in a statement on television (this evening) that the German government does indeed want to double military aid to Ukraine next year from 4 billion euros to 8 billion euros and gives reasons. https://t.co/NfBODtRQNf pic.twitter.com/xNQkxHaRqx

— German Aid to Ukraine (@deaidua) November 12, 2023

According to BILD, Germany will double its military aid to Ukraine from 4 billion to 8 billion euros next year. The governing parties have agreed this week! The Bundestag’s Budget Committee is expected to officially decide on this next week.

SPD Member of the Budget and Defence Committee @Schwarz_MdB: “The doubling of military aid is right and important. This will back up our promise to Ukraine with the necessary money.”

 

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius confirms that Germany will double the military support for Ukraine next year.

While this is good news, I’m still convinced that we need to do more than that. 8 billion Euro are impressive but what is needed is a decisive, proactive and… https://t.co/AxN0tDoVJH

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) November 12, 2023

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius confirms that Germany will double the military support for Ukraine next year.

While this is good news, I’m still convinced that we need to do more than that. 8 billion Euro are impressive but what is needed is a decisive, proactive and permanent solution. Aside from a global and all-encompassing strategy which defines the role of Germany in a capacity as global player, we need all factories in Germany and the West operating at peak capacity and even extend current assembly lines so that enough military hardware can be produced for all allies and Germany.

In the debates where I’m involved I never get tired to say that Germany is a sleeping giant, not using the full and vast potential. As much I appreciate our alliance with the USA and NATO, I also see the necessity that we in conjunction with our European neighbors have to do our part and by this I mean Europe and the immediate area around Europe.

The world is an unforgiving place and if we want to put finally weight behind our words then we need a foreign policy strategy, reflecting realities of the 21st Century, a robust military and an arms industry which can produce in serial production. This requires a complete different mindset from our political class, but the current German government, especially this chancellor, does not fulfill this requirement. They are still clinging on idealistic dreams which have nothing to do with reality.

#Germany #Ukraine

Avdiivka:

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1723645931906629914

Tatarigami has this sobering assessment of the situation in Avdiivka. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:

Avdiivka 2023-11-12

In line with our earlier projection this week, russian forces have gained partial/temporary control over the eastern portions of Stepove. In this report, we analyze forthcoming developments and explain how we accurately foresaw recent advancements. 🧵Thread: pic.twitter.com/ceDuP87rEw

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) November 12, 2023

2/ Despite negative assessments of russian tactics and high losses near Avdiivka, their overall approach has seen partial success. They managed to breach defense positions north of Avdiivka, reaching the railroad.

3/ This jeopardizes Avdiivka’s resupply routes, creating few options for the russians – they can either seize Stepove and attempt to take Berdychi or take control of AKHZ. Either scenario puts pressure on the primary supply lines to Avdiivka. 

4/ Stepove was heavily shelled and many buildings were destroyed, indicating that Russians would likely advance there, which they did later in the week. Defending piles of rubble is difficult, so taking over Stepove may not be an effective foothold for advancing into Berdychi.

5/ We have doubts about the likelihood of russians advancing into Berdychi from Stepove due to logistical challenges. Although there is an alternative route from the north, it comes with the risk of overextending their logistics, which may leave them vulnerable.

6/ Logistics is a major concern for both sides. The russians will face difficulties in managing logistics across the railroad, as shown in the photo. Many roads will be impassable during the mud season, which will limit resupply routes for defenders as well

7/ At present, the russians do not have fire control over the road linking Avdiivka with other forces. Nevertheless, we have received anecdotal reports suggesting their efforts to use FPV drones in an attempt to disrupt the supply route along the road.

8/ Our team expects russians to use tactical infantry groups of various sizes in an attempt to gain control in AKHZ. Currently, Russian forces are facing challenges in securing the Waste Heap and the railroad near AKHZ. The situation seems stable for now, despite some advancement

9/ In summary, the narrow russian supply lines, watched by Ukrainians, limit their movements, especially beyond the railroad. As the mud season begins, Ukrainian logistical operations will face challenges, offering russians chances to target vehicles with artillery and FPV drones

10/ If you found this content useful, please consider liking and sharing the initial post in this thread. Your support greatly aids in increasing our visibility.

If you would like to provide direct help to the units in Avdiivka, you can check out @jana_skhidna. 

11/

As per the vouches of several people, @jana_skhidna provides direct assistance to them and their units on the ground in Avdiivka. If you would like to contribute to their cause, you can find the requisites here or just contact her directly:

• • •

And some Q&A:

Extensive operational space for maneuvering in multiple directions, offering the potential to flank crucial areas to the north and west of Avdiivka. Additionally, there is a political advantage, as they can claim that they pushed Ukrainian forces away from Donetsk.

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) November 12, 2023

As emphasized in summary, the outcome depends on logistics for both sides. Directly taking Avdiivka is not feasible, which is why they aim for encirclement and disruption of logistics routes. However, their own logistical routes are even more shabby.

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) November 12, 2023

Hladkivka:

This Russian military convoy of at least 11 vehicles was spotted in Hladkivka. This village is more than 22km from Kherson City.

The Ukrainian artillery destroyed at least three vehicles and killed several Russian soldiers which later got dragged away and piled up. The vehicles… pic.twitter.com/tD1rQaVwy1

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) November 12, 2023

This Russian military convoy of at least 11 vehicles was spotted in Hladkivka. This village is more than 22km from Kherson City.

The Ukrainian artillery destroyed at least three vehicles and killed several Russian soldiers which later got dragged away and piled up. The vehicles were carrying ammunition which caused secondary explosions.

Coordinates of that strike:

46°24’50″N 32°38’37″E

Source: https://t.me/kherson_non_fake/11469

#Ukraine #Kherson

Kherson Oblast:

Strike on quite rare Russian RB-636 “Svet-KU” electronic warfare system. Kherson region. https://t.co/P5XET0OYJA pic.twitter.com/E6WlEh7Iym

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 12, 2023

Donetsk:

What in the traditional values is this? https://t.co/brczbTopvP

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) November 12, 2023

Here are the pics of her from before and after she spent some time with Melania’s plastic surgeon:

Ahhahahahhahaha, Russian mir folks. Im dying! 🤪🤣🤣 Before Russia has arrived and after.

I can't comprehend this. pic.twitter.com/vLOTahapQt

— Tired Idealist (@TheHardRise) November 12, 2023

Bozhe Moi!

Max Seddon of The Financial Times reports on an advanced microchip smuggling operation to supply the Russians. First tweet from the thread, the remainder from the Thread Reader App:

As their yacht bobbed on the Mediterranean, the microchip executive snapped a picture of his Russian partner asleep on the deck.

He only knew the Russian by his first name, Maxim. But he knew Maxim was using a shadowy network to get the chips for the Russian defense industry. pic.twitter.com/1xIXMeWkvQ

— max seddon (@maxseddon) November 12, 2023

Marc Rocchi’s qcompany Ommic desperately needed Maxim’s business to stay afloat. A few months earlier Rocchi had flown to Greece to hand-deliver Maxim 230 microchips — €45,000 worth. Maxim had, at one point, offered Rocchi “cash and women” for more, though he declined.

Rocchi knew his ultimate customer was NPP Istok, which makes electronic warfare systems for the Russian military. Specialist microchips like Ommic’s high-performance gallium nitride and gallium arsenide-integrated circuit boards are vital to defense manufacturers like Istok.

After Putin annexed Crimea in 2014, Ermakov had to cover his tracks to avoid sanctions and export controls.

But Rocchi knew who he was dealing with. In 2015, he wrote a letter that referred to Fly Bridge, a front company Ermakov set up, as “our official partner in Moscow”.

Today, Ommic has closed and Rocchi is awaiting trial in France, having been indicted in March. He denies charges of sending secrets to a foreign power that could harm the national interest, exporting dual-use goods to Russia, and submitting false documents.

The man pictured, Maxim Ermakov, has been sanctioned by the US and UK governments in the past fortnight as part of a major crackdown on the networks that Moscow’s intelligence services use to procure advanced western technology for president Vladimir Putin’s war machine.

Russia can’t make advanced chips on the level of the west and Asia’s. “It would be simply too expensive to produce it domestically and it would be militarily inconceivable to go without it,” says @crmiller1.

Instead, the Kremlin’s intelligence services smuggle them into Russia.

The KGB had an entire division, “Line X,” dedicated to stealing western technology.

When the first shoots of capitalism sprung up in the 1980s, avenues opened for Soviet enterprises to buy it on the open market — and for western businessmen to sell it to Moscow.

Irishmen Denis and Eoin Sugrue started exploring the Russian microtechnology market in the 1980s. The Cold War was over, but certain items could not be freely sent into Russia under export controls. Denis Sugrue learned that first-hand in 2005, when the FBI arrested him.

Within months, Sugrue was released after paying a fine for a customs labelling violation. In his memoir, Sugrue said he was able to demonstrate that he had sought to check the device did not need an export licence, while the buyer was also a civilian agency, not a military one.

Sugrue’s book was not widely read. Only half a dozen readers listed its Russian translation on Bookmate, an online reading app popular in Russia. The only one who finished it was a reader using the handle “Monar4”: Maxim Ermakov.

France shut down Ommic this year and sold off its assets to a US chipmaker.

But Istok — and Ermakov — are still active. Since the invasion of Ukraine, Istok has produced novel equipment for the Russian military – and used branches of the Ermakov network to source supplies.

This story, by @xtophercook and me, is a rare look into the inner workings of a Russian technology smuggling operation. And it shows the daunting game of whack-a-mole western governments have to play to stop the chips flowing:

https://on.ft.com/3Sxmdrb

Here’s an interesting assessment of why Russian men volunteer/join the Russian military for service in the Special Military Operation in Ukraine. I’m going to embed the entire thread before excerpting from the article because the charts and graphs are embedded in the tweets:

They are much more interested in temporary work (вахта) and often have experience working in oil and gas fields. This is likely not a coincidence, as the war still is the best-paying job available for most Russians. 2/8 pic.twitter.com/zJEmcWZTQU

— Arnold Khachaturov (@arnldkh) November 9, 2023

They also have friends from eastern Ukraine more frequently compared to a random person of the same demographic group and region. 4/8 pic.twitter.com/srZFzAbZx5

— Arnold Khachaturov (@arnldkh) November 9, 2023

Those who volunteer for war have pretty much the same interests as the “average men” from their age group and region. 6/8 pic.twitter.com/l47nYNvFzm

— Arnold Khachaturov (@arnldkh) November 9, 2023

These conclusions align well with independent sociological research on Russian public opinion. We were able to gather this data from VK, which of course has its limitations, but I believe it serves as a good example of what "alternative sociology" might look like. 8/8

— Arnold Khachaturov (@arnldkh) November 9, 2023

Here’s some additional excerpts from Khachaturov’s reporting at Novaya Gazeta Europe:

According to the authorities, between 1,000 and 1,500 Russians sign up to serve in the country’s military every day. While some genuinely believe that in doing so they are defending the motherland, others see going to war as well-paid temporary work. Many never return.

To understand why Russians are still volunteering to go to war, Novaya-Europe selected 675 names from the list of Russia’s war dead maintained jointly by Mediazona and the BBC and analysed their profiles on social media platform VK in an attempt to establish what a typical volunteer’s profile looked like.

While the following three Russian men didn’t know each other, they all made the same decision to enlist in the military to fight in Ukraine. None of them returned.

Nikita, 26, from the Rostov region, had wanted to go to technical college, but when that didn’t work out he did his military service instead. After that, he worked for a time at an oil and gas field, as well as in construction and furniture production.

Sergey, 33, from the Orenburg region, started doing odd jobs in the eighth grade. After school, he worked in security and as a cash collector. He devoted most of his free time to the gym, running and martial arts.

Dmitry, 23, from the Irkutsk region in Siberia, played team sports at school and went to technical college.

Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, at least 34,000 Russian soldiers have been killed. At least 3,000 of them volunteered to go to war, having enlisted in the military since the invasion began on 24 February last year.

Profile of a volunteer

The thousands of volunteer fighters all have different motivations. Some sincerely believe they are going to defend the motherland and state propaganda normally focuses on these ideological supporters of the war. Some make the decision for financial reasons. Our calculations show that going to war is the only way for many Russian men to escape poverty.

We usually discover volunteers’ motivations from individual stories. But there is another, more systematic, way to look into them too. At present, 86% of Russian internet users use the VK social networking site and volunteers are no exception. We analysed the pages of 751 Russian military volunteers who died in Ukraine, and compared them to a control group of Russian men of the same age from the same places, and to others who actively expressed a pro-war position. We took the names of the casualties from the list maintained by Mediazona and the BBC.

The conclusions we draw are based on composite results. Not all volunteers fully correspond to the profile that comes from our analysis. You can always find examples of people to whom the general statistics do not apply, but there are more to whom they do.

Our Methodology

Russian independent media outlet Mediazona, the BBC, and a team of volunteers maintain a list of Russian soldiers killed in the war with Ukraine. As of 20 October, it featured more than 3,500 volunteers. We found 751 of their VK profiles, belonging to 675 unique users.

We then decided to find men of the same age and from the same cities as volunteers to compile a “control group” and created a dataset of 2,331 profiles.

We compared volunteers with men who actively supported the war on VK. We took their pages from a dataset used for research into opponents and proponents of the war on VK, published in Novaya Gazeta Europe in April.

We then taught the model to recognise how likely a user is to support the war based on their subscriptions.

Loyal supporters

Volunteers tended not to change their views and continued to consider the war a just cause even after hearing first-hand accounts of the lack of supplies, of people being blown to pieces by landmines, and the general carnage of the front, says Kappinen.

Disappointment with the Russian army doesn’t necessarily lead to an anti-war stance. The level of support for the war among volunteers is far higher than among the wider male population, or at least, it was before volunteers arrived at the front — whether or not volunteers’ views changed after serving is impossible to say.

We put this to the test with a machine learning model: by comparing the VK groups both supporters and opponents of the war were members of from a previous study, our algorithm learned to determine a user’s attitude to the war based on their group memberships. For each user, the model calculated a value from 0 to 1, 1 reflecting a pro-war attitude based on the proportion of pro-war forums the user is subscribed to. A random sample of men had an average “pro-war” value of 0.49. Among volunteers, that figure was 0.56. For comparison, active supporters of the war on VK had a value of 0.58. For opponents of the war, it was 0.35.

A volunteer’s willingness to go to the front isn’t based solely on blind faith in propaganda or financial gain, however. Before making such a decision, you need an inner sense that it is the right thing to do. How that comes about and what fuels it is a question with no obvious answer, but we have attempted to answer it here.

Here’s Gary Kasparov’s take on Khachaturov’s reporting:

I wrote about this effect in WaPo in 2014, comparing the Hong Kong protest's success at the time relative to our failures in Russia. But free world apathy helped the Chinese dictatorship prevail there too, eventually. https://t.co/GFHqKeilby pic.twitter.com/rAhTe8Kwhw

— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) November 12, 2023

So the state of Russian sanctions, the subject of a detailed @WLCongress report, is so infuriating. Instead of exploiting the huge advantage Ukraine's allies have in tech and finance by cutting Russia off and seizing its assets, the free world is a sieve of opportunism.

— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) November 12, 2023

For Omnes:

CAESAR is turning the occupiers’ positions into a salad.

📹: @United24media pic.twitter.com/pOBEHjA5Bw

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 12, 2023

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets today, so here’s some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense:

Share lunch with your friends.

📷: 59th Motorized Brigade pic.twitter.com/6rP4ECbSXh

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 12, 2023

There is a new slideshow at Patron’s official TikTok. Those don’t embed here, so click through if you want to see it.

Open thread!