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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires republicans to act in good faith.

Usually wrong but never in doubt

We can show the world that autocracy can be defeated.

They punch you in the face and then start crying because their fist hurts.

Insiders who complain to politico: please report to the white house office of shut the fuck up.

The low info voters probably won’t even notice or remember by their next lap around the goldfish bowl.

The arc of history bends toward the same old fuckery.

Stop using mental illness to avoid talking about armed white supremacy.

Republicans cannot even be trusted with their own money.

An almost top 10,000 blog!

Let’s not be the monsters we hate.

I really should read my own blog.

New McCarthy, same old McCarthyism.

With all due respect and assumptions of good faith, please fuck off into the sun.

White supremacy is terrorism.

Sometimes the world just tells you your cat is here.

Oppose, oppose, oppose. do not congratulate. this is not business as usual.

It’s always darkest before the other shoe drops.

Republicans: “Abortion is murder but you can take a bus to get one.” Easy peasy.

Stamping your little feets and demanding that they see how important you are? Not working anymore.

Let me file that under fuck it.

Come on, media. you have one job. start doing it.

Dear elected officials: Trump is temporary, dishonor is forever.

Democracy cannot function without a free press.

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Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

Open Threads

You are here: Home / Archives for Open Threads

I Knew There Was Something Going On, But I Did Not See This Coming

by WaterGirl|  September 18, 202311:10 am| 157 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Politics

I knew there was something going on, but I did not see this coming.

Whoa – big @mikeallen scoop on the secret campaign by top Trump allies to get Texas AG Ken Paxton acquitted.

“It was made clear to Texas GOP senators that they’d face a very well-funded primary opponent in their next election if they voted to impeach.”https://t.co/OhG6gZe9Lw pic.twitter.com/bR7W04RsCX

— Emma Loop (@LoopEmma) September 17, 2023

Axios (sorry!) article on the secret campaign by Steve Bannon and other Trump allies to get Ken Paxton acquitted.

Following a secret campaign coordinated by top Trump allies, Texas state senators yesterday acquitted Attorney General Ken Paxton of all impeachment charges, allowing him to return to his post.

Why it matters: The allegations against Paxton, a close ally of former President Trump, bitterly divided the Texas GOP, Jay R. Jordan of Axios Houston and Nicole Cobler of Axios Austin report.

Behind the scenes: National Republicans organized an under-the-radar campaign of outside conservative pressure on the Texas senators designed to neutralize mainstream media coverage, top strategists tell me.

This outside unofficial team operated independently of the Paxton legal operation — like “a super PAC without the money,” a top GOP strategist said.

The team had a “very well-defined target audience … no different than a confirmation battle,” the strategist said.

After winning, Paxton tweeted his thanks to the conservative news outlet National Pulse, a valued player in the under-the-radar drive.

Catch me up: Senators weighed whether Paxton illegally used his office to benefit an Austin real estate developer, and improperly fired some of his top deputies who reported him to the FBI and other agencies.

Despite an overwhelming majority of House Republicans voting to impeach Paxton in May, only two of 18 Republican senators voted to convict Paxton.

So … how did that happen?  (see the full story at the link up top)

I hope the feds nail Paxton to the (proverbial) wall.

Last minute addition, just after posting:

Good news: The five Americans who had been imprisoned in Iran have cleared Iranian airspace as they travel to Doha, according to a US official. Reports @jmhansler

— Jim Sciutto (@jimsciutto) September 18, 2023

Open thread.

I Knew There Was Something Going On, But I Did Not See This ComingPost + Comments (157)

Late Night Open Thread: No Sympathy for Rep. Boebert

by Anne Laurie|  September 18, 20232:27 am| 92 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Republican Stupidity, All Too Normal, Schadenfreude

Late Night Open Thread:  No Sympathy for Rep. Boebert 1

Leftists will always find the worst angle to every story. pic.twitter.com/dIVeyZ8otM

— Ragnarok Lobster (@eclecticbrotha) September 16, 2023

There are cameras in most large theaters.

A big reason for that is the mass shootings that Republicans like Boebert vote to facilitate on a regular basis.

Like the one in Aurora, Colorado.

Not far at all from the theater where Boebert committed these lewd sex acts. https://t.co/ECvqnMhdww

— Democrats in Array ?????? (@DemsInArray) September 16, 2023

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Late Night Open Thread:  No Sympathy for Rep. Boebert

FYI Criticizing Lauren Boebert or any other woman who says or does offensive, hateful, hypocritical shit isn’t “anti-feminist”. Feminism isn’t about blindly supporting women just because they’re women.

— The Volatile Mermaid (@OhNoSheTwitnt) September 17, 2023

Yeah what we’re not going to do is act like criticizing Lauren Boebert engaging in a public sex act in a crowded theater is kink shaming or anything. You don’t get to non consensually involve others in your kink especially when children are nearby

— Dr. Mia Brett (@QueenMab87) September 16, 2023

I'm sticking with: "Glad-handing a constituent."

— Tony (@fishnbaja1) September 16, 2023

Late Night Open Thread:  No Sympathy for Rep. Boebert 2

As soon as Boebert’s “date” was identified, we knew this was… about to be posited:

I know Liz doesn’t believe this, and neither do most of her followers, but they’ll all pretend they do.

— Jean-Michel Connard ?? (@torriangray) September 18, 2023

Eyes on the prize…

My feeling on the whole Boebert thing is that Adam Frisch has a solid chance of unseating her with our support, and I would rather talk about what he can do than what she did do.

— Courtney Milan 🦖 (@courtneymilan) September 17, 2023

I hear that Rep. Boebert already has her next theater event picked out. pic.twitter.com/FVrAG8UyIv

— Benjamin Dreyer (@BCDreyer) September 16, 2023

Late Night Open Thread: No Sympathy for Rep. BoebertPost + Comments (92)

Sunday Night Funnies Open Thread (Extremely On-Line Social Media Edition)

by Anne Laurie|  September 17, 20239:06 pm| 99 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, The War On Women, #notintendedtobeafactualstatement, Assholes, Bitter Despair is the New Black

"Banality is like entropy; everything collapses into it in the end. And so the organization premised on relentless self-congratulation for the capacity to offend leaves us with this: respect mothers." https://t.co/KeUAKwDkoe

— Aaron Bady (@zunguzungu) September 17, 2023

Yes, you *have* heard the name Bari Weiss before, at least if you’ve skimmed the posts sharing my unhealthy compulsion to mock Bari and all her cronies. On the other hand, their ‘ideas’ are so weightless and insubstantial that perhaps they slide off your minds, unregretted.

It’s the end of the weekend, after one chaotic week and facing into another, and mocking the deserving is as much energy as we can spare… (Bonus: Elon Musk’s most mock-worthy ex!) From Kerry Howley at NYMag, “Scenes From the End of the Sexual Revolution”:

The question “Has the Sexual Revolution Failed” contains within itself a number of other questions (failed at what? Failed whom? Why are we talking about this?), precisely none of which were answered Wednesday night at the Ace Hotel in downtown Los Angeles, where 1,600 plaid-skirted e-girls and be- khakied normies and the aspiring canceled paid as much as $165 a seat to hear a British ideologue, a deft Dimes Square shape-shifter, an ex-Muslim podcaster, and Techno Mechanicus’s mother debate the resolution. You can’t really fault the organizer, even if the organizer was Bari Weiss. It ought to have worked. An ill-defined proposition, half of Red Scare, a random British lady very upset about BDSM, and Grimes? No notes…

The alt-right’s inchoate longing for sexual repression in the absence of religion remains mysterious. Fifty-six percent of the audience, polled beforehand by text at an event featuring four ambitious women and moderated by a queer married media mogul, agreed that the sexual revolution had “failed.” The debate was drawn from Louise Perry’s book, serviceably titled The Case Against the Sexual Revolution, which takes as its presumed reader an extremely credulous liberal raised up in isolation from any information beyond the feminist blogosphere circa 2004 and who needs to be informed, at truly extraordinary length, that men are, on average, physically stronger than women. Women have been pressured to “fuck like men,” a situation that leaves alpha males very happy but all women depressed, abused, vulnerable, and commodified. If there is nothing here that went unsaid by Kay Hymowitz or Christina Hoff Sommers in the dark heyday of the hookup-culture think piece, at least everything sounds better in a British accent.

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Perry struggles with specifics but seems to genuinely believe we would be happier with mid-century sociosexual norms (let’s assume it’s a kink), so it was simultaneously unfortunate for her and very funny that her more capable co-debater, Anna Khachiyan, refused to defend the proposition. Khachiyan could not “with a straight face” argue that the sexual revolution failed. She thinks sex is “cool and fun.” “The idea that we live in a society where men are in charge,” she said through a cloud of vape smoke, “is funnier than anything Tim Dillon has ever said.” She “low-key agreed” with the other side’s Sarah Haider, who made the sensible point that having to marry to achieve economic stability was also a form of sexual commodification. The problem with the sexual revolution, Khachiyan said, with destigmatizing all the stigmas, was being left to make do in a society in which “there’s no one to blame but yourself.”

Men in my vicinity were betting that Grimes would not show, but there she was, chaotic neutral, tasked with defending 63 years of presumptive progress. “I’m really bad at reading from a paper,” she said underneath her nymphcore bonnet, and later, speaking for all of us, “I don’t know what I’m supposed to be rebutting.” She suggested, promisingly, that we “rebuild civilization.” Her suggestion for a better civilization: free child care at work…

Another review, from the LATimes entertainment section — “Bari Weiss’ big L.A. debate was less ‘free expression’ than self-promotion”:

… If you’re looking for smart, incisive, even plain provocative dialogue about those questions, stop reading here. There was little to no daylight between the panelists’ views, and they were tethered by a common goal: calling attention to their own brands by sitting on the shoulders of the very movement that afforded them the freedom to sit on that stage and talk in circles.

As for the contentious viral moments that organizers might have hoped to leverage into financial support, followers or cultural cachet, those never happened. The audience of 1,600-plus, all primed to cheer the speakers’ adversarial views, found less and less to react to as the panel digressed. Rowdy millennials in Camille Paglia T-shirts, stoic middle-aged men in promotional “Free Press” baseball caps and well-groomed seniors in the pricey seats up front instead witnessed a group of like-minded women mostly agreeing with one another. There’s an art to skating on the edge of right-wing rage while pretending to be a nondenominational outsider, a skill Weiss has tried to harness over the years with varying degrees of success. Wednesday’s event was a prime example of what it looks like when the act falls flat…

And yet — Mission accomplished! Here we are, talking about Bari Weiss!

Sunday Night Funnies Open Thread (Extremely On-Line Social Media Edition)Post + Comments (99)

Medium Cool – Fictional Worlds You Would Actually Like to Live In

by WaterGirl|  September 17, 20237:00 pm| 192 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Medium Cool is a weekly series related to popular culture, mostly film, TV, and books, with some music and games thrown in.  We hope it’s a welcome break from the anger, hate, and idiocy we see almost daily from the other side in the political sphere.

Arguments welcomed, opinions respected, fools un-suffered.  We’re here every Sunday at 7 pm.

I thought we might do something a little different tonight, and pick up where we left off last week when we talked about books that make you feel like you’re there.

Medium Cool – Books That Make You Feel Like You’re There

Toward the end of last week’s thread, kalakal mentioned the fictional world he would most like to live in, at least for awhile, and I thought it might be fun to talk about that tonight.  Maybe it’s one of the worlds you wrote about if you participated in last week’s post – or maybe a world that someone else wrote about that intrigued you.

I know it’s hard to pick just one, so you can have up to 5 worlds you would most like to live in.  But please, if you do have more than one world you would like to live in, write about them in separate comments, please!  (Not trying to pump up the number of comments; I think lists of things are less likely to be read and commented on.)

But let’s make it a bit more challenging!

If the world in Witness is the one you would like to live in – at least for awhile – what role would you like to play?  Would you be the one trying to keep someone safe?  One of the young bucks competing for love?  The children?  A wise elder?  Or would you like to live in that world without that particular storyline?  And if so, what would be the storyline for your world?

As always on Medium Cool, I set the rules but I know there will be lose loose interpretations or the rules will go right out the window.  But it’s a starting point!

Medium Cool – Fictional Worlds You Would Actually Like to Live InPost + Comments (192)

War for Ukraine Day 571: The Butcher’s Bill from Last Night’s Attack on Odesa

by Adam L Silverman|  September 17, 20236:56 pm| 57 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Last night thanks to an email heads up from commenter Dopey-o, I put up a supplemental update that Russia had put about a dozen TU 95 strategic bombers in the air, that they were headed to or over the Black Sea, and that meant that an aerial attack was most likely imminent on Ukrainian civilian and civilian infrastructure targets. This was indeed the case.

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1703346429236797748

EuroMaidan News has the details:

In the early hours of 17 September, Russia attacked Ukraine with six Iranian-made Shahed one-way attack drones and ten cruise missiles, targeting Odesa Oblast, as Ukraine destroyed all the drones and six missiles, according to the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The Air Force says Russians launched six Shahed-136/131 UAVs attacked from the southeast and south (Russia’s Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Crimea’s Chauda), while 10 X-101/X-555/X-55 air-launched missiles were fired from 9 Tu-95MS strategic aircraft from the Engels air base area in Russia’s Saratov Oblast.

“The main direction of the strike was the south of Odesa oblast. Air defenses were active along the route of the missiles and UAVs. Fighter aircraft, anti-aircraft missile units, mobile fire groups, and other means of destruction were involved in repelling the air attack,” the Air Force reported.

According to the Air Force, Ukrainian forces shot down 12 air targets, including all six Shaheds and six of 10 cruise missiles. The Ukraine South Defense Forces specified that four Shahed drones were downed in Mykolaiv Oblast, and two more in the Odesa skies.

“Enemy missiles hit the territory of a civilian agricultural enterprise in Odesa Oblast, the State Emergency Service is working [on the scene], and the local military administration will inform you of the consequences,” the Air Force said.

The Ukraine South Defense Forces added that the attack damaged agricultural land and a grain storage facility in Berezivskyi district of Odesa Oblast, and no one was injured.

As of the publication of this article, the Odesa Regional Military did not share any further details.

I have not seen anything published about the numbers of wounded or killed in last night’s attack.

There are also two cargo ships in port at Chornomorsk about 20 km from the city of Odesa. They are flagged in Palau, got to Ukraine by running the Russian blockade by hugging the western coast of the Black Sea adjacent to several EU and NATO member states, and they there to take on a full load of Ukrainian grain to be delivered to Egypt and Israel. They’ll use this western route to get back to and then through the Straits of Bosphorus. I think it is likelty that Russia was either aiming for them, as well as the granaries and storehouses in Odesa, and the Ukrainians brought those missiles and drones down or that last night’s attack was partially intended to deter them from leaving port for the return leg.

As of right now, Olga Honcharenko has no new posts, which means Russia has nothing in the air. Hopefully it stays that way so I only have to do one war update tonight.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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We we must reach a point when all children in our country have their own family, their own home – address by the President of Ukraine

17 September 2023 – 20:22

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

I would like to express gratitude today.

To everyone who defends the sky of our country. Our pilots and engineers of the Air Force, warriors of mobile fire groups, all our anti-aircraft gunners. Thank you for constantly increasing the number of downed Russian missiles and drones, and thus the number of our people and infrastructure saved. Thank you, warriors!

And to everyone who is now on the front line. To every brigade. From Kupyansk to the left bank of Kherson region, from the Bakhmut sector to every Ukrainian position on the front line in the south of our country. I thank you guys for your might!

And today I would like to especially recognize the warriors who are gradually regaining Ukraine’s territory in the area of Bakhmut. The 80th air assault brigade, the 5th separate assault brigade, the glorious 95th and “Fury” Joint Assault Brigade of the National Police. Klishchiivka! Well done!

Today Ukraine marks Rescuer’s Day. And on Friday, I had the honor to personally thank the employees of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine and all those whose hearts simply feel that it is impossible otherwise, that we must take care of others, that we must help others when lives depend on it. Today, I want to thank not only all our rescuers, but also all the relatives – mothers and fathers of boys and girls, men and women working in the State Emergency Service of Ukraine. I thank you for raising your children this way: to save others, to make our entire society stronger and more humane. Thank you!

Today – and this is a very symbolic coincidence – our country also marks Adoption Day. This is probably one of the most honorable missions in life – to help a child avoid an orphan’s fate. I thank everyone who helps children in this way, everyone who spreads the warmth of their families so that there are fewer lonely destinies in this world!

As a state, we must reach a point when all children in our country, all those who have been left without parental care, have their own family – their own home, their own family.

Ukraine certainly must not be associated with orphanages. I thank everyone who works for this!

Glory to everyone who helps our people and the entire country become stronger!

And we are preparing new defense decisions for Ukraine. Air defense and artillery are a priority.

Glory to Ukraine!

President Zelenskyy will meet with all US senators during his visit to DC next week.

https://twitter.com/AndrewDesiderio/status/1703418969674162482

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1703478927984066755

The cost:

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1703512552167112912

Uman:

https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1703355031867605149

Klischiivka:

https://twitter.com/MFA_Ukraine/status/1703455131591758196

https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1703457468850872569

Bucha:

https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1703385544028307553

Cape Fiolent, Russian occupied Crimea:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1703469828743250324

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1703484363525050793

Khakovka reservoir:

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1703422789103845533

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1703422794422181991

Here is an even deeper dive on the flood plain by a former NOAA meteorologist. First tweet from the thread, the remaining forty-three or so from the Thread Reader App. Since the videos no longer load from the Thread Reader app, if you want to see them you’ll have to click through on the first tweet below and scroll down.

https://twitter.com/davidhelms570/status/1701017719326626099

2/ K-HPP Destruction Impacts:
– Irrigation/agricultural land lost: 350,000-550,000 ha
– Drinking (population 700,000) and industrial water loss
– Zaporizhzhia NPP cooling pond water supply loss
– 14,000 homes flooded, many drowned

topleadprojects.com/environmental-…
theguardian.com/world/2023/jun…

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War in UA Environmental Impact | top lead projectshttps://www.topleadprojects.com/environmental-project-main
A visual guide to the collapse of Ukraine’s Nova Kakhovka damUkraine accuses Russia of blowing up Dnipro River dam, which has largely been swept awayhttps://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/09/visual-guide-ukraine-nova-kakhovka-dam-collapse
3/ 6-11 June Water Level Changes: Nikopol (left y-axis) and Kherson City (right y-axis) from Vyshnevskyi, et al, 2023
Immediately after the Russians blew up the K-HPP dam, the Kakhovka Reservoir water level began lowering and within 6 hours, the Kherson City water level increasedImage
4/ Sentinel 6 data Dnipro River water level observations below the K-HPP peaked at 6.81 meters (11 JUN) falling back to about 0.6 meter near normal water level. @PoleTheia
hydroweb.theia-land.fr/hydroweb/view/…

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https://hydroweb.theia-land.fr/hydroweb/view/R_DNIEPR_DNIPRO_KM0076?lang=en&#
5/ Sentinel 6 water level data near Nikopol prior to K-HPP destruction was 17.42 meters now varying between 6.06 and 6.36 meters (6 meters is pre-reservoir (1955) level average per Vyshnevskyi, et al, 2023)
ipad.fas.usda.gov/lakes/images/l…
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6/ From 5 to 20 June, the water “mirror” area (aerial coverage of water) decreased to 24% of the original 2061 km**2 area, per Ukrainian Hydrological Institute using Sentinel 2 imagery
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7/ Background on the Dnipro Cascade (6 reservoirs on the Dnipro River):
– The Dnipro basin extends into western Ukraine, northern Belarus, and western Russian
– Kakhovka HPP was the 6th of 6 reservoirs on the Dnipro cascade.
Water Resources of Ukraine. State and Prospects of Use Peter Kovalenko https://www.riob.org/IMG/pdf/P-_Kovalenko_Prezentaciya1.pdf
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8/ Background on the Dnipro Cascade
The Kakhovka HPP Reservoir held 6.68 km**3 of useful water storage, about 36% of all useful water storage in the entire Dnipro Cascade.
riob.org/IMG/pdf/P-_Kov…

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9/ Sentinel 6 has water level trend data are available for 3 of 5 remaining reservoirs. Kyiv and Kaniv levels are above normal, while Kremenchuk (the largest reservoir by far) water level is below normal. Reservoir level anomaly conditions from @NASA
blueice.gsfc.nasa.gov/gwm/lake/Index
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https://blueice.gsfc.nasa.gov/gwm/lake/Index
10/ According to @Ukrhydroenergo , water is being discharged to generate electricity during repair of other TPP, HPP, and NPP power generation units necessary to improve system availability to meet winter demands. Trend graphs from @nasa BlueIce page.
en.uhe.gov.ua/news/operation…

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Operational Information as of September 4 The average water level of the lower reservoir near the Dnipro HPP is 12.13 meters above sea level.  https://en.uhe.gov.ua/news/operational-information-september-4
11/ Focus on the Dnipro Floodplain (former Kakhovka Reservoir) time-series, JUN-SEP 2023
Kakhovka – Lower Floodplain
Sentinel 2 Optimized Color 
12/ Focus on the Dnipro Floodplain (former Kakhovka Reservoir) time-series, JUN-SEP 2023
Kakhovka – Lower Floodplain
Sentinel 2 Chlorophyll-a (thanks @tom_bike!)
Chlorophyll-a algorithm does a good job identifying open water & water quality (eutrophication, algae) from dry land 
13/ Focus on the Dnipro Floodplain (former Kakhovka Reservoir) time-series, JUN-SEP 2023
Novovorontsovka – Middle Floodplain
Sentinel 2 Optimized Color
Note wetland area near Novovorontsovka seems to increase and decrease. 
14/ Focus on the Dnipro Floodplain (former Kakhovka Reservoir) time-series, JUN-SEP 2023
Novovorontsovka – Middle Floodplain
Sentinel 2 Chlorophyll-a
Note bright green (elevated algae populations) in isolated pools. 
15/ Focus on the Dnipro Floodplain (former Kakhovka Reservoir) time-series, JUN-SEP 2023
Nikopol-Enerhodar Upper Floodplain
Sentinel 2 Optimized Color
Note significant wetland area on right bank of Dnipro main channel (upstream of Nikopol) 
16/ Focus on the Dnipro Floodplain (former Kakhovka Reservoir) time-series, JUN-SEP 2023
Nikopol-Enerhodar Upper Floodplain
Sentinel 2 Chlorophyll-a 
17/ Focus on the Dnipro Floodplain (former Kakhovka Reservoir) time-series, JUN-SEP 2023
Vasylivka – Upper Floodplain
Sentinel 2 Optimized Color 
18/ Focus on the Dnipro Floodplain (former Kakhovka Reservoir) time-series, JUN-SEP 2023
Vasylivka – Upper Floodplain
Sentinel 2 Chlorophyll-a
The isolated wetlands near Vasylivka have such high algae concentration, it is difficult to discriminate from marsh grasses in NDVI. 
19/ Dnipro Floodplain Comparison – Current to 1943 and 1853
So we are seeing wetland in 20-25% of the Dnipro floodplain (former Kakhovka reservoir). Were there wetlands at these locations 80 years ago? 170 years ago? Let’s check old photography and maps
oldmaps.dp.ua/greatlug/?left…
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https://oldmaps.dp.ua/greatlug/?leftmap=1917&rightmap=50723#12/47.5105/34.1050
20/ Dnipro Floodplain Wetlands Comparison – Current to 1943 and 1853
Novovorontsovka: Wetlands remarkably similar now as in 1943 and 1853

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21/ Dnipro Floodplain Wetlands Comparison – Current to 1943 and 1853
Kapulivka: More extensive wetlands now than in 1943 and 1853

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22/ Dnipro Floodplain Wetlands Comparison – Current to 1943 and 1853
Vasylivka: Similar wetland now as in 1943 and 1853

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23/ Dnipro Floodplain Wetlands Comparison – Current to 1943 and 1853
Nikopol-Enerhodar: Different (larger) wetland area on right bank now than in 1943 and 1853; drainage likely disrupted due to dredging and levees.

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24/ “Great Meadow”/“Velykyi Luh”
Will the future look like the past?
“Velykyi Luh” was once home to the Zaporozhian Cossacks, with settlements, roads, buildings, all flooded in 1955.
Vasyliuk, et al, 2023
uncg.org.ua/en/it-is-time-…

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Serhiy Vasylkivsky, Cossacks in the Steppe (1900s), oil on canvas. National Art Museum of Ukraine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Art_Museum_of_Ukraine

It is time for Velykyi Luh to revive – Ukrainian Nature Conservation GroupVelykyi Luh (means Great Meadow) is one of the most important natural and historical landscapes of Ukraine. This area was flooded in 1955-1958 with construction of Kakhovske Reservoir, despite the fac…https://uncg.org.ua/en/it-is-time-for-velykyi-luh-to-revive/
25/ This is a 90 day timeline of Dnipro floodplain images posted to Twitter since 6 June 2023. The images show the floodplain in 3 phases:
Draining -> Drying -> Pioneering
Image sources include: @aborealis940 @nexta_tv @KyivPost @astraiaintel @huruank @NOELreports @MamedovGyunduz
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26/ Month 2 – Drying “Takyrization”:
“In a dry state, takyr soils are characterized by high strength, and in the dry period, they can even be used for vehicular traffic. But wet takyr soils become highly plastic, viscous, and impassable.”
Dr. Yakiv Didukh
en.ecoaction.org.ua/fate-of-kakhov…
What will be the fate of the Kakhovka Sea? 27 July 2023 Dr. Yakiv Didukh Head of department, Department of Geobotany and Ecology, M. G. Kholodny Institute of Botany National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine https://en.ecoaction.org.ua/fate-of-kakhovka-sea.html https://www.nas.gov.ua/EN/PersonalSite/Pages/Contacts.aspx?PersonID=0000003695

What will be the fate of the Kakhovka Sea?The destruction of the Kakhovka HPP is a large-scale environmental disaster.https://en.ecoaction.org.ua/fate-of-kakhovka-sea.html
27/ Month 3 – Pioneering
“Headlines stating ‘the bottom of the reservoir is turning into a desert’ that appear in the media are incorrect and short-sighted.” Prof Didukh
Prof Didukh believes the 75-80% the Dnipro floodplain will likely a woody thicket rather than a meadow.
What will be the fate of the Kakhovka Sea? 27 July 2023 Dr. Yakiv Didukh Head of department, Department of Geobotany and Ecology, M. G. Kholodny Institute of Botany National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine https://en.ecoaction.org.ua/fate-of-kakhovka-sea.html https://www.nas.gov.ua/EN/PersonalSite/Pages/Contacts.aspx?PersonID=0000003695
Image
28/ What will the Dnipro floodplain vegetation look like if the water level is left at the current level?
It is time for Velykyi Luh to revive
Oleksiy Vasyliuk, et al, 2023

@ecodiya @ackerm_ann @_UNCG_ uncg.org.ua/en/it-is-time-…
It is time for Velykyi Luh to revive 22 August 2023 Authors: Oleksiy Vasyliuk, Viktor Parkhomenko, Ivan Moisiienko, Viktor Shapoval, Serhiy Panchenko and Oleksandr Spriahailo. We would like to thank Yevhen Simonov for his important advice. https://uncg.org.ua/en/it-is-time-for-velykyi-luh-to-revive/

It is time for Velykyi Luh to revive – Ukrainian Nature Conservation GroupVelykyi Luh (means Great Meadow) is one of the most important natural and historical landscapes of Ukraine. This area was flooded in 1955-1958 with construction of Kakhovske Reservoir, despite the fac…https://uncg.org.ua/en/it-is-time-for-velykyi-luh-to-revive/
29/ After Ukraine removes Russian invades from its territories, the Dnipro floodplain probably won’t be left at the current water level. Several papers outline the 4 hydrotechnical options (see table); no single solution meets all national requirements.Image
30/ What is the potential for wheeled or tracked vehicles crossing the Dnipro floodplain to establish a beachhead in next 2-4 months? Prof Didukh “In a dry state, takyr soils are characterized by high strength, and in the dry period, they can even be used for vehicular traffic.” 
31/ While June & July were relatively wet, August & September have been dry. Over a 90 day period, the Standardized Precipitation Index for the Dnipro basin has been near normal, but the past 30 days lack of rain has caused fire risks to most of Ukraine.
meteo.gov.ua/en/Pozhezhni-p…

Image
Image

Fire Hazard. UHMCFire Hazard. Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Centerhttps://www.meteo.gov.ua/en/Pozhezhni-poperedzhennya
32/ EU GloFAS Hydrologic Prediction System has 2 river flow rate points on the Dnipro floodplain below K-HPP:
Seasonal Forecast Point #564 – Dnipro Power Plant 47.875N 35.075E
Seasonal Forecast Point #629 – Kakhovskoye Vodokhranilishche Ges 46.75N 33.15E
globalfloods.eu/glofas-forecas…
Image

https://www.globalfloods.eu/glofas-forecasting/
33/ EU GloFAS seasonal median forecast flow rate for Dnipro HPP is lower than typical flow rate through October, then slightly above typical flow for November 2023.Image
34/ EU GloFAS seasonal median forecast flow rate for Nova Kakhovka is also lower than typical flow rate through October, then slightly above typical flow for November 2023 (although the forecast initial conditions seems off).Image
35/ Climatic soil moisture for Kherson is typically marginal to good through early November supporting wheeled and tracked vehicles, degrading after November.Image
36/ Frost depth will likely be sufficient to support wheeled vehicles in the Dnipro floodplain by mid to late January 2024 through February 2024 with thaws during this 6 week window.
meteoblue.com/en/weather/his…
Image

Simulated historical climate & weather data for Nikopol – meteoblueSee historical weather data for Nikopol. ✓ Climate charts ✓ Hourly simulations ✓ High resolutionhttps://www.meteoblue.com/en/weather/historyclimate/climatemodelled/nikopol_ukraine_700051
37/ Of course, the Dnipro floodplain near Nikopol has seen successful bridging operations back in WWII.
reddit.com/r/ww2/comments…
Image

https://www.reddit.com/r/ww2/comments/u02pvl/a_column_of_german_vehicles_crosses_the_dnieper/#
38/ Description of the difficulty the Germans had defending their Nikopol bridgehead against the advancing Russians:
warfarehistorynetwork.com/article/battle…
Image

Battle for the Ore Deposits: The Red Army vs. Nazi GermanyThe Soviet Red Army fought the Nazis for control of some of the world’s richest ore deposits.https://warfarehistorynetwork.com/article/battle-for-the-ore-deposits-the-red-army-vs-nazi-germany/
39/ A beachhead across the Dnipro floodplain offers some advantages such as fewer fortifications than south of Orikhiv per @bradyafr

Unroll available on Thread Reader

Image

40/ The Russians have likely been redeploying forces away from the Dnipro left bank to defend UAF advances near Robotyne

Image

41/ While the *weather* may allow bridging operations at selected locations until November 1st and again in late January/February, building and protecting a pontoon bridge is very vulnerable to artillery, FPV and missile attacks, especially for the Dnipro.

Unroll available on Thread Reader

Image

42/ Recall the RF bridging operation on 8 May 2022 where UAF artillery destroyed 500 RF troops and RF 80 vehicles in a rather modest bridging operation across the Siverskyi Donets River.

Image

43/ Ultimately, a successful UAF Dnipro bridging operation will come down to acceptable weather (river width and floodplain trafficability) and most importantly, local air defense and large enough bridgehead to push back RF artillery. /end 
Additional Reading:
What will be the fate of the Kakhovka Sea?
27 July 2023
Dr. Yakiv Didukh
Head of department, Department of Geobotany and Ecology, M. G. Kholodny Institute of Botany
National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine

What will be the fate of the Kakhovka Sea?The destruction of the Kakhovka HPP is a large-scale environmental disaster.https://en.ecoaction.org.ua/fate-of-kakhovka-sea.html
It is time for Velykyi Luh to revive
22 August 2023
Authors: Oleksiy Vasyliuk, Viktor Parkhomenko, Ivan Moisiienko, Viktor Shapoval, Serhiy Panchenko and Oleksandr Spriahailo. We would like to thank Yevhen Simonov for his important advice.

It is time for Velykyi Luh to revive – Ukrainian Nature Conservation GroupVelykyi Luh (means Great Meadow) is one of the most important natural and historical landscapes of Ukraine. This area was flooded in 1955-1958 with construction of Kakhovske Reservoir, despite the fac…https://uncg.org.ua/en/it-is-time-for-velykyi-luh-to-revive/
The destruction of the Kakhovka dam and its consequences
23 August 2023

@PeterGleick
Citation: Viktor Vyshnevskyi, et al (2023) The destruction of the Kakhovka dam and its consequences, Water International, 48:5, 631-647,

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02508060.2023.2247679
THE GLORIOUS ZAPORIZHZHYA

http://cossacks-uan.net/en/vkd/the-glorious-aporizhzhya.html
Rebuilding Ukraine’s ruined Nova Kakhovka dam pits history against economic reality
19 June 2023

Rebuilding Ukraine’s ruined Nova Kakhovka dam pits history against economic reality | CBC NewsAmid the spoiled farmland and destroyed crops, the waterlogged homes and ruined lives, the now slow-motion tragedy that is the draining of the Kakhovka reservoir is also peeling back time on an almost…https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-kakhovka-dam-rebuilding-1.6880319
Ukrhydro Telegram

“If the Kakhovskaya HPP is not rebuilt, there will never be agriculture in the South at all,” Oleg Pendzyn, a member of the economic discussion club, told UNIAN.t.me/ukrhydroenergo…

Укргідроенерго3 місяці з моменту підриву Каховської ГЕС. Яка наразі ситуація та які заходи задля відбудови вже здійснено у прямому ефірі Марафону «Єдині новини» для телеканалу ICTV розповів генеральний директор Укр…https://t.me/ukrhydroenergo/4222
Укргідроенерго«Якщо не відбудувати Каховську ГЕС, сільського господарства на Півдні взагалі ніколи не буде», – про це зазначив УНІАН член економічного дискусійного клубу Олег Пендзин. Економіст розповів, чому без …https://t.me/ukrhydroenergo/4141
*invaders

Somewhere in Chechnya:

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1703353971530731842

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1703365827657920565

Baruk Khazâd! Khazâd ai-mênu!

What?

Anyhow, this was why I resisted posting the RUMINT that Kadyrov was in a coma and near death.

It’s HIMARS O’Clock!

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1703527422337913248

Obligatory:

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron:

There are no new Patron tweets or videos today. So here is some Patron adjacent material from Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense.

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1703455020895891578

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 571: The Butcher’s Bill from Last Night’s Attack on OdesaPost + Comments (57)

Open Thread: Another Maui Update

by Anne Laurie|  September 17, 20236:22 pm| 19 Comments

This post is in: How about that weather?, Information Warfare, Open Threads

West Maui opens on Oct 8 to visitors. We need you to come back — so many of my friends' jobs are resting on the return of visitors. https://t.co/ydB4OYGWag

— HawaiiDelilah™ 🟦 #MauiStrong (@HawaiiDelilah) September 16, 2023

Death toll from Maui wildfires drops to 97, with 31 missing https://t.co/B7hrjsuADQ

— Jeffrey Levin 🇺🇦 (@jilevin) September 16, 2023

Good (if gruesome) explainer from the Washington Post — “Death toll from Maui wildfires drops to 97, with 31 missing”:

show full post on front page

The death toll from the devastating wildfires on Maui dropped unexpectedly to 97 on Friday, a decrease that officials attributed to more precise testing done by military experts who found that some body bags contained human remains belonging to the same people and cautioned that a final count is still not finalized.

The blaze, which began Aug. 8, was already the deadliest in modern American history, far outstripping the 2018 Camp Fire, which killed 85 people in Paradise, Calif. Previously, Hawaii officials said at least 115 people died in the fires that quickly subsumed the historic town of Lahaina, but Hawaii Gov. Josh Green (D) said Friday the confirmed number of deaths has gone down.

“That number dropped a little bit because the Department of Defense and all of their physical anthropologists were able to help us discern better who was in cars or in houses,” Green said in a video statement. “So thank God, fewer people have passed away.”

There are still 31 open reports of missing people. “And not all of those who are lost have been identified,” Green added.

During a news conference Friday, Maui police said they’ve positively identified 74 individuals.

John Byrd, the laboratory director for the Pentagon’s agency in charge of identifying remains of U.S. war dead, said his team is assisting in the process but is not prepared to offer a final count for the number of fatalities…

Driving past Lahaina is so difficult. Nothing left of the town I call home. The news cycle moves so quickly. Don’t forget about us. Rally your representatives and senators to do the right thing and vote for the funding to help us. pic.twitter.com/Iz8yE9hgjm

— HawaiiDelilah™ 🟦 #MauiStrong (@HawaiiDelilah) September 15, 2023

My research on the disinformation campaign(s) targeting the Hawaii fires —which was amplified by Russia and China — is featured in this new piece by @HawaiiNewsNow.

The takeaway: Crises are a target for disinfo and social media is an attack surface.https://t.co/ddRXAHnYWe

— Caroline Orr Bueno, Ph.D (@RVAwonk) September 13, 2023

And it’s arguably good news that the local media is warning Hawaiians against the Space Laser! conspiracists…

HONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) – A disinformation campaign that sprung up almost immediately after wildfires ravaged Maui was spread by China and Russia, researchers have concluded.

And, they say, that campaign made the government’s response to the disaster even more difficult.

From weather warfare to floating bodies on another island to thousands of missing children to a Maui land grab, experts say online posts about the wildfires might have started as genuine concern.

But they also said China and Russia are now using artificial intelligence to amplify false messages and spread fear, division and distrust in government.

Caroline Amy Orr Bueno, a University of Maryland postdoctoral research associate and digital deception expert, said the online rumors started the day after the Aug. 8 fire.

One phrase “Hawaii, not Ukraine” was similar in messaging to what was seen online after the Ohio train derailment disaster.

“They link that to the U.S. providing support to Ukraine. The idea is the reason that the aid to Hawaii was inadequate was because our attention and our resources were going to Ukraine,” said Bueno.

“It was the same narrative with this overarching idea pitting the support for Ukraine against support for a local community,” she added.

Gov. Josh Green reacted to research on HNN’s “Spotlight Now,” saying the disinformation is disappointing — and dangerous.

“When you start talking about laser beams and heat rays coming from space that would take out a people on Maui, coming on let’s get real,” Green said…

New York Times correspondent Steven Lee Myers, who covers misinformation, told Hawaii News Now that Maui wildfire rumors had photos generated by artificial intelligence.

They were on all digital platforms and in multiple languages.

He says it’s hard to tell if China and Russia started the rumors or amplified once it was online…

“People are hurting, people are upset, they are looking for answers and in that space I think people can be vulnerable,” he added.

Experts also said that platforms like Facebook have taken down several pages linked to China, but say they need to do more.

Open Thread: Another Maui UpdatePost + Comments (19)

Great Article, and OzarkHillbilly’s New Hero

by WaterGirl|  September 17, 20231:50 pm| 86 Comments

This post is in: Justice, Open Threads

OzarkHillbilly sent me this link and described Alicia Roth Weigel as his new hero.

I Came Out as Intersex in Front of the Texas Legislature

In her new memoir, Alicia Roth Weigel shares her story of coming out in the most political way possible.
It’s a long(ish) read, but her writing style is very engaging. (Politico Magazine)

Great Article, and OzarkHillbilly's New Hero
Alicia Roth Weigel is seen in the Texas Capitol in Austin. | Courtesy of Alicia Roth Weigel

At 3 a.m. on the day I made the biggest decision of my life, I called Wendy Davis for advice.

She’d been asleep, of course. It was a desperate moment, though, and I needed my mentor. Despite the hour, Wendy took my call and listened as I laid out the plan I’d frantically hatched over the past few hours. She was no stranger to pulling stunts to make “good trouble” — having once filibustered for 13 hours straight to help kill a bill that would have restricted abortion access across Texas, which made her the stuff of feminist legend — and she gave me her stamp of approval. But at the end of our call, she gave me one suggestion too: “I think you should try to look as feminine as possible when you walk into that committee room,” she said. “I know you don’t wear makeup, but maybe throw on a bit of lipstick, a killer dress and some power heels.”

Wendy often advises that heels bring confidence, adding a little height and some power to your posture.
“That way when you take the dais, all those old legislators’ minds will be wandering — we know some of them have even tried to hit on you before — and it will really throw them for a loop when you drop the fact that you were, you know, born with balls.”

I was about to come out as an intersex woman. And I was going to do it in front of the Texas legislature.

You may be wondering what intersex means. I’m not surprised. Though statistically we’re as common as redheads (about 2 percent of the world’s population), our identity is erased not just from history books but even in the present day. We are present in society but hidden in plain sight. Yes, the “I” in LGBTQIA+ is for “intersex,” but as of now, it might as well stand for “invisible.” We’re not exotic, but we are exhausted — constantly struggling for recognition or mere acknowledgment of our existence.

To start at the beginning, we have to rewind just over three decades, a bit before I was born.

Take a few minutes to read the whole thing.

Great Article, and OzarkHillbilly’s New HeroPost + Comments (86)

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